Mexico Automotive Outlook · PDF file automotive industry IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit acquires...

Click here to load reader

  • date post

    08-Oct-2020
  • Category

    Documents

  • view

    2
  • download

    0

Embed Size (px)

Transcript of Mexico Automotive Outlook · PDF file automotive industry IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit acquires...

  • © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    Mexico Automotive Outlook

    October, 2017

    Guido Vildozo, Senior Manager, Americas +1 781.301.9037 guido.vildozo@ihsmarkit.com

    mailto:guido.vildozo@ihsmarkit.com

  • © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    MARITIME & TRADE

    ENGINEERING & PRODUCT DESIGN

    AEROSPACE, DEFENSE & SECURITY

    CHEMICAL

    DIGITAL & WEB SOLUTIONS

    ECONOMICS & COUNTRY RISK

    ENERGY

    FINANCIAL MARKETS DATA

    & SERVICES

    AUTOMOTIVE

    OPERATIONAL RISK

    & REGULATORY COMPLIANCE

    Addressing strategic

    challenges with

    interconnected

    capabilities

    We deliver on the promise of

    The New Intelligence

    IHS Markit provides leaders

    from multiple industries with

    the perspective and insights

    they need to make the best

    choices and stay ahead of

    their competition.

    TECHNOLOGY, MEDIA & TELECOM

  • © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Source: © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    3

    Committed to Customers First

    Including 5,000+ analysts, data scientists,

    financial experts and industry specialists

    • Unsurpassed ability to interpret data

    • Award-winning forecasting

    • Relationships with industry leaders

    Offices in 34 countries

    IHS Markit colleagues

    12,000+ 130+

    Our mission is to delight our customers

    daily by delivering a powerful combination

    of world-class expertise, knowledge and

    solutions so they can make more informed

    decisions to enable their long-term,

    sustainable growth.

    Traded on the Nasdaq under the INFO symbol

  • © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    IHS Markit Automotive provides a 50 year legacy…

    DRI and WEFA are founded. Later join to form Global

    Insight

    IHS acquires

    Global Insight

    IHS acquires CSM

    Worldwide

    IHS acquires iSuppli

    IHS acquires

    IMS Research and BDW Automotive

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1960s

    Global Insight brings vehicle demand and production forecasts,

    component insight, and market

    awareness tool in addition to a host

    of country intelligence and industry insights

    Enhances demand,

    production, powertrain

    and components

    analysis

    Adds vehicle technology

    analysis featuring

    infotainment & safety systems

    Founded the modern

    economic forecasting

    industry including

    forecasts for Automotive

    Enhances vehicle

    technology analysis and

    adds consumer surveys

    Adds network planning and performance management capabilities

  • © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    …and is positioned to support the industry’s future!

    In July 2013, IHS acquired RL Polk,

    including both Polk and CARFAX.

    IHS Automotive

    comprises over 800+ colleagues located in

    30+ offices in 14 countries across 4

    continents.

    2015

    IHS acquires RL Polk

    IHS acquires

    CARPROOF

    2013 2013

    IHS acquires CARFAX

    IHS Markit Automotive group

    is now the leading source of global light-vehicle registration, sales,

    production and vehicles-in-operation data and forecasts

    In 2015 IHS acquired CARPROOF

    Corporation, a Canada-based

    company that offers products and

    services in vehicle history, appraisal

    and valuation for the automotive industry

    IHS merges with Markit Ltd. to

    become IHS Markit

    2016

    IHS Markit acquires

    automotive Mastermind

    2017

  • © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    A trusted partner to clients’ success

     Our clients include:

     All 20 of the largest OEMs

     92 of the top 100 Tier-1 Suppliers

     Our global list of over 650 clients accounts for

     Over 85% of the world's top OEMs and suppliers

    © 2016 IHS Markit – All Rights Reserved

  • © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    Agenda

    • Global Outlook

    • NAFTA Outlook

    • Mexico Outlook

    • Key Takeaways

  • © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    Global growth forecasts expects BRICs to strengthen and mature markets to remain resilient

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    NAFTA Other Americas

    Western Europe

    Emerging Europe

    Mideast-N. Africa

    Sub- Saharan

    Africa

    Japan Other Asia- Pacific

    A n

    n u

    a l

    p e rc

    e n

    t c h

    a n

    g e

    2016 2017 2018 2019 2020–24

    Real GDP

  • © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    9

    Oil prices gradually recover but remain moderate adjusted for inflation

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    125

    150

    2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027

    D o

    ll a

    rs /b

    a rr

    e l

    Current US dollars 2016 US dollars

    Price of Dated Brent crude oil

    Source: IHS Markit © 2017 IHS Markit

  • © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    10

    The dollar’s real exchange rate value will depreciate in the medium term

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    1.4

    1.6

    1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

    In d

    e x

    , 2

    0 0

    9 =

    1 .0

    Major trading partners Other important trading partners

    Real trade-weighted dollar index

    Source: IHS Markit © 2017 IHS Markit

  • © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    $400 Estimated incremental spend globally to 2020. $5–8 billion estimated

    average annual per original equipment manufacturer (OEM).

    Penalties for non-

    compliance billion

    Brand image as a leader in

    technological advancements and

    environmental sustainability

    Vehicle profitability

    Market share

    *

    * IEA World Energy Investment Outlook (International Energy Agency, World Energy Investment Outlook, OECD/IEA, Paris).

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    220

    240

    260

    280

    2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

    US (FTP75/US06)

    Europe (NEDC)

    Japan (JC08)

    China (NEDC)

    S.Korea (NEDC)

    • Global vehicle CO2 targets are now starting to converge, allowing for more global synergy and analysis

    • What’s at stake?

    Tighter Regulations: What are automakers to do?

  • © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    So, what’s a ZEV?

    Hydrogen fuel cell electric

    vehicles (FCEVs)

    Battery electric vehicles (BEVs)

    Plug-in hybrid

    vehicles (PHEVs)

    Note: ZEV = zero emissions vehicle.

  • © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    Disruptive

    –Toyota

    –Honda

    –Nissan

    –Ford

    –BMW

    –Volkswagen

    –Mazda

    –Hyundai

    –Lexus

    –Audi

    © 2016 IHS 13

  • © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    Photo By: Devin Lindsay

    Products

    Battery evolution Infrastructure

    Government / incentives Oil prices

    Consumer

    Six Stars of Alignment

    Photos by: Devin Lindsay

    Source: Shutterstock

    Source: Shutterstock

    Source: Shutterstock Source: Shutterstock

  • © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    Traditional

    Ownership

    model

    (CaaP)

    Sharing Economy

    (CaaS)

    Driver is Person

    Automated

    Autonomous

    L5 New customers

    New Form of mobility

    Disruptors

    (CaaRobot)

    B ig

    g e

    s t d

    is ru

    p to

    r

    to A

    u to

    m o

    ti v e

    I n

    d u

    s tr

    y

    Paradigm Change and the Mobility Cube Solving the Automotive Rubik’s Cube as new mobility ecosystems emerge

    Ride-Hail Car-Share

    “CaaS” – car as a service “CaaRobot – car as a robot “CaaP” – car as a product “PAC” - Personal Autonomous Car

    PAC Robo Taxis

    e.g. Uber, Lyft, Didi

    e.g. Zip Car Car2go

  • © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    64

    93

    108

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

    Global Light Vehicle Sales (Millions)

    Source: IHS Markit © 2017 IHS

    29million

    15million

    -0.4 -0.2 0.0

    0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4

    0.9 1.2