METRO, Director of Service Planning, Scheduling, and ... · RIDERSHIP FORECASTING: ... Director of...
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RIDERSHIP FORECASTING: Don’t Overthink It Jim Archer METRO, Director of Service Planning, Scheduling, and Evaluation Houston, Texas/USA
Transcript of METRO, Director of Service Planning, Scheduling, and ... · RIDERSHIP FORECASTING: ... Director of...
RIDERSHIP FORECASTING:Don’t Overthink It
Jim Archer
METRO, Director of Service Planning, Scheduling, and
Evaluation
Houston, Texas/USA
Houston METRO: Bigger In Texas
Category By The Numbers
Service Area 1,303 sq. mi.
Boardings / Routes(FY2015)
Local Bus 57.9M80 routes
Park & Ride Bus 8.4M30 routes
Light Rail 15.3M3 lines
Paratransit 1.9M
Bus Stops 8,970
Long, Long Ago In An AdministrationFar, Far Away…
Shirley A. DeLibero,
President and CEO
Houston METRO
1999 - 2004
HOW THE QUEST FOR A MORE
ACCURATE RIDERSHIP FORECASTING
PROCESS STARTED
“OK. So you’ve proven that there’s a reason
for the change in ridership. But what will our
overall ridership be next month? Each
month for the rest of the year? And for next
year?” (paraphrase)
Ridership:
Flying Square Circles: Start With What You Know
• Varies by Month (seasonal)
• Varies by Calendar Mix (unique combination of service
Weekdays, Saturdays, Sundays)
• Varies by Weekday, Saturday, Sunday (work /
discretionary trips)
• Varies by Holidays
Flying Square Circles:What The Process Looks Like
JULY 2010 (FY2010)
Weekday June July Difference % Difference
FY2005 276,971 260,407 (16,564) -6.0%
FY2006 286,554 272,053 (14,501) -5.1%
FY2007 284,511 263,951 (20,560) -7.2%
FY2008 289,221 284,657 (4,564) -1.6%
FY2009 237,873 227,938 (9,935) -4.2%
Average 275,026 261,801 (13,225) -4.8%
FY2010 222,042 211,365 (10,677) -4.8%
Boardings
Estimated Average Weekday 211,365
Number of Weekdays 21
Estimated Weekday – Monthly 4,438,665
Boardings
Weekday ( A ) 4,438,665
Saturday ( B ) Xxx
Sunday ( C ) Xxx
Independence Day ( D ) Xxx
Month ( J = ( A + B + C + D )) J
Boardings
October Xxx
November Xxx
December Xxx
January Xxx
February Xxx
March Xxx
April Xxx
May Xxx
June Xxx
July J
August Xxx
September Xxx
TOTAL
• Highly accurate for 8 years
• Accuracy in last two years were coincidental
- Hurricane Rita
- No Hurricane
• Modification required due
to “perceived precision”
Flying Square Circles:What The Results Were
FixedRoute
Forecast Actual Difference % Difference
FY1999 98,284,290 98,017,633 - 266,657 - 0.27%
FY2000 97,724,464 97,710,653 - 13,811 - 0.01%
FY2001 98,019,384 97,467,564 - 551,820 - 0.56%
FY2002 93,516,677 92,875,580 - 641,097 - 0.69%
FY2003 89,464,098 89,157,148 - 306,950 - 0.34%
FY2004 86,855,547 86,527,841 - 327,706 - 0.38%
FY2005 81,166,665 80,475,640 - 691,025 - 0.85%
FY2006 87,693,729 87,185,154 - 508,575 - 0.58%
Composite 732,724,854 729,417,213 - 3,307,641 - 0.45%
New Bus Network:What The Results Are (as of June 30, 2016)
Mode Challenges
Local Bus New Bus Network yet to be implemented (starting August 16, 2015)Saturday service increase + 37%Sunday service increase + 93%
Light Rail – Red Line New 6-minute headway on northern end (started May 23, 2015)Connections to new Green and new Purple linesNew Bus Network yet to be implemented (starting August 16, 2015)
Light Rail – Green Line Opened May 23, 2015Multiple closures during May – June 2015 due to floodingNew Bus Network yet to be implemented (starting August 16, 2015)
Light Rail – Purple Line See “Light Rail – Green Line”
Commuter Bus Flat ridership trend in FY2015 despite increased layoffs in oil and gas industry – primary employers in downtown served by 90% of Park and Ride routes
FY2015 Ridership Forecast Due on July 3, 2015 Prior to June 2015 ridership data availability
After 9 months, the variance is – 3.6%, with more than one third of the variance explaining by severe flooding in October, April, and May.
• Restated in formal budget because forecast anticipated a ridership loss
• Accused of “sabotaging” routes whose actual ridership were closer to forecast than goal
• Created more accurate forecast than required federal process leading to internal pressure to abandon process
Accurate Results Lead to “Unanticipated Consequences”
An Ideological Nightmare: Route 500 Airport Direct
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1stMonth
2ndMonth
3rdMonth
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12thMonth
500 Airport Direct - Weekday Boardings - Goal, Forecast, Actual
Goal Forecast Actual
Although there was disappointment in the actual ridership, the actual ridership was highly comparable to the ridership forecast
Another Ideological Nightmare: Route 285 Kingsland / Uptown
Contrasting Methodologies: Green and Purple Rail Lines
Methodology Variance
EIS Forecasting -61.5%
Budget Forecasting + 3.6%
Outthinking Myself: Route 53 Westheimer - Sunday
o Opportunity to redeploy resources to get new serviceo Proposed new Sunday service on route with weekday / Saturday
serviceo Developed adjustment factors for weekday to Sunday, and
Saturday to Sundayo Developed “average” Sunday ridership based upon proposed
service levelso Results were between 1,600 and 1,900 average daily boardingso Previous highest first year ridership total was 1,275 boardingso Adjusted forecast to 1,400 boardings – still highest ever but…
Actual first year average was 1,800+ boardingsIf only I’d applied more trust…
• Seasonality is critical
• Initiate with what you know
• Make history your friend
• Prepare for opposition
• Leave holidays, weather alone
• Evaluate each year
DON’T OVERTHINK IT
