Methodologies for Assessing Effects of Regional Economic

Integration

Workshop within the IIASA Project “Challenges and Opportunities of Eurasian Economic Integration”

IIASA 6-7 March 2014

Abstracts and short biographies

Pavel Kabat

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria

Short bio note:

Professor Dr. Pavel Kabat, Director General and CEO

Pavel Kabat became the tenth Director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in February 2012. As Director General Professor Kabat is the Chief Executive Office of the Institute, responsible for the formulation, management, and administration of all research programs and other activities at IIASA.

(c) IIASA

Born in Czechoslovakia in 1958, Professor Kabat lived and worked in Canada and the Netherlands before moving to Austria to direct IIASA. Previously, he held the Chair of the Earth System Science and Climate Change Group at Wageningen University and Research Centre in the Netherlands, where he was also Chair of the Board of the Wageningen Climate Centre, and Science Director and Council Chair of the Dutch National Climate Research Program. As leader of these groups, Professor Kabat helped raise €150 million in funding for integrative research while the Earth System Science Group was evaluated as “excellent” in two consecutive reviews by independent international committees in 2007 and 2010.

Professor Kabat remains a Professor of Earth System Science at Wageningen University, and Director and Chair of the Royal Dutch Academy of Arts and Sciences’ Institute for Integrated Research on Wadden Sea Region.

Professor Kabat has over twenty years’ experience of leading interdisciplinary and international research teams investigating global environmental change. During this time with support from the European Commission and other large international agencies such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), he has pioneered large-scale research on global change that has provided the foundation for a new generation of thinking in global change research. His roles have included being Co-Chair of two of the International Scientific Steering Committees of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programmes, ILEAPS from 2004 to date and BAHC from 1994 to 2003; and the Science Director of the International Dialogue on Water and Climate and the International Cooperative Programme on Water and Climate from 2001 to 2009.

Since his PhD in Hydrology, Water Resources and Amelioration in 1986; he has built scientific expertise in climate hydrology and water cycle, water resources and climate, land interactions with the atmosphere and biogeochemical feedbacks, climate system and climate change, and global change. During this time, Professor Kabat has authored or co-authored over 200 refereed publications, including 8 books. He is on the editorial board of range of international scientific journals and is also a member of a variety of academies of sciences and learned societies, ranging from the Finnish Academy of Sciences to the Slovak Academy of Sciences.

Professor Kabat has provided science and policy advice to numerous organizations and governments in various roles such as Chief Scientist for an Asian Development Bank project in Bangladesh from 2008 to 2010, Member of the Advisory Group on Climate to the Dutch Parliament, Member of the High Level International Mekong Delta Committee and Review Editor for the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC.

Vladimir Yasinsky

Eurasian Development Bank, Kazakhstan

Short bio note:

Vladimir Yasinsky was born in 1956. He graduated from Lomonosov State University in Moscow and completed a postgraduate course at the Institute of Economics at the USSR Academy of Sciences.

1982-1989 Chair of Political Economy of the Peoples’ Friendship University and work abroad. 1989-1992 third secretary of the USSR embassy in Nepal. 1992-1997 Russia’s deputy trade representative in India. 1998-2002 Russia’s deputy trade representative in China. 2002-2006 deputy director of Gazprom’s representative office in China. Mr. Yasinsky was appointed Member of the Management Board

and Director for Research at EDB on 16 June 2006.

Evgeny Hotulev

Department of Macroeconomic Policy, Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), Russia

Short bio note:

Date of birth – January 18, 1975, Smolensk.

In 1997, he graduated from the Moscow State University named after M.V. Lomonosov (Department of Mechanics and Mathematics) with a degree in “Mathematics. Applied Mathematics”.

In 2002, he graduated from the New Economic School with a Master's degree in economics.

He started his career with investment companies as a financial analyst and developer of investment projects.

2002 to 2006 – advisor, expert at the Economic Expert Group.

He was responsible for the budgetary policy, inter-budget relations, budget planning, budget process at the federal and regional level and implementation of budgeting tools at all levels of the state sector based on the results.

He participated in many projects of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of Finance of Russia, World Bank, UK Department for International Development (DFID) and government authorities of the constituents of the Russian Federation.

From 2006 till May 2011 – civil service in structural units of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development (Head of the Department, Deputy Director of the Department.)

His job duties included coordination of the analysis of issues and elaboration of proposals related to the budgetary policy, state economics and reformation of state finances. He was responsible for modeling of the current and future development of state finances, regulatory issues of forecasting and placement of government orders, development of the regulatory framework in the area of state regulation of prices for defense products etc.

He participated in making the official forecasts of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation. He was involved in transition, at the federal level, to the concept of the oil and gas budget since 2008 and creation of the Reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund, development of the concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2020,

development of the concept and approaches to implementation of the federal contract system and preparation of the relevant draft legislation.

From May 2011 till April 2012 – Advisor of the Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.

His job duties included development and assessment of proposals in the area of improvement of the macroeconomic and budget policies in various aspects, participation in structural units of the Ministry in terms of development of the program budget.

From April 2012 till present – Director of the Department of Macroeconomic Policy of the Eurasian Economic Commission.

He was honored by the Government of the Russian Federation and Minister of Economic Development and Trade of the Russian Federation. He was awarded the Diploma of Merit from the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation and medal “For Diligence” from Rosoboronzakaz.

Evgeny Vinokurov

Eurasian Development Bank, Centre for Integration Studies, Russia

Short bio note:

Evgeny Vinokurov was educated at the universities of Kaliningrad, Göttingen, Grenoble and Moscow. He earned a Ph.D. (doctor nauk) in economy from the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow; and a Ph.D. from Pierre Mendes-France University (Grenoble II). After several years of experience in applied economy research projects at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), Catholic University of Leuven and the University

of Jena he proceeded to working with the EDB, being responsible for macro and microeconomic analysis in particular, as well as the development bank's research program. Founding director of the EDB Centre for Integration Studies since 2011.

Presentation title: Quantifying Economic Integration of the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union: Methodological Approaches

(with Irina Tochitskaya, Igor Pelipas)

Abstract

Despite current political headwinds, there is need for a timely expert assessment of the comprehensive economic integration between the European Union (EU) and the emerging Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). This report represents a preliminary methodological study. It starts off by offering a general understanding of the possible scope and limits of EU-EEU economic integration. It surveys the available literature on the various impacts that may arise if regional trade and investment agreements come into force. The report examines the use of computable general equilibrium models for assessment of the economic impact of integration agreements. It also analyses econometric methods to study regional integration and discusses the applicability and constraints of other methods used to evaluate the effects of regional commercial agreements. The report presents a brief analysis of the methodology of assessing the impact of lifting non-tariff barriers.

Dmitry Korshunov

 Eurasian Development Bank, Centre for Integration Studies, Russia

Short bio note:

Dmitry Korshunov was graduated from the Lomonosov Moscow State University, Department of Mathematics and Mechanics. In 2008 he received an MBA degree at the California State University East-Bay. Till 2013 he has been employed at the Research Department of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the position of Chief Researcher. At the Bank of Russia he was the kea analyst who participated in building the forecasting and policy analysis system for Russia (FPAS of the Bank of Russia). In 2008 he worked as a visiting scholar at the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund where he helped implementing the Global Projection Model (GPM)

project. Project manager at the EDB Centre for Integration Studies since 2013. He coordinates research projects focused on macroeconomic analysis and macroeconomic modeling.

Igor Pelipas

Institute for Privatization and Management (IPM) Research Center, Belarus

Short bio note:

Igor Pelipas has a MSc. degree in Economics and Statistics by the Belarusian State Economic University (1985) and Ph.D (Candidate of Sciences) in Economics by the Belarusian Research Institute of Agricultural Economics (1989). Currently he is a Deputy Director General on Research of the Institute of Privatization and Management (IPM) and a Chairman of Supervisory Council of the IPM Research Center. He also worked as a senior research fellow at the Institute of Economics, National Academy of Sciences (1989–1993) and a Deputy Director of the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies, IISEPS (1993–1998). His resent research deals

with the problems of monetary economics, macroeconomic modeling and forecasting, applied econometrics.

Irina Tochitskaya

Institute for Privatization and Management (IPM) Research Center, Belarus

Short bio note:

Dr. Irina Tochitskaya has more than 20 years of research and management experience. Irina earned her Ph.D. Degree in Macroeconomics and M.Sc. Degree in Statistics. Her professional interests include trade policy, innovation and growth, energy sector development, enterprise development, applied econometrics.

Irina began her career as a research fellow at the Institute of Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus. In 1996 she took the position of Chief Specialist at the Joint Stock Bank “Belarusbank”, Minsk, where she was responsible for

investment, money – flow, operation – cost analysis. In 1999-2000 she was awarded the fellowship of the Kennan Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (Washington DC), then she spent five month as a Visiting Faculty at the Department of Economics at the Central European University (Budapest, Hungary). Since 2003 Irina has been working as a Deputy Director of the IPM Research Center (Minsk, Belarus).

She has experience in project management at national and international levels, and specifically she is the Director of the project German Economic Team in Belarus, supported by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology of Germany. As a Team Leader and Senior Expert she has participated in numerous projects supported by the European Commission, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Russia, the Eurasian Development Bank, the Economics Education and Research Consortium (EERC), UNDP. Irina has more than 40 scientific publications including one book and chapters in 3 books.

Sara Alpysbayeva

Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting, International institute of Economic and Law, Kazakhstan

Short bio note: Sara Alpysbaeva is a Director Of the Center for macroeconomic and applied economic and mathematical research JSC “Economic Research Institute”, Astana, Kazakhstan Doctor of Economics, Professor January 2008 - present – Director of the Center for macroeconomic and applied economic and mathematical research, JSC “Economic Research Institute” Ministry of Economics and budget planning of the Republic of Kazakhstan 2008-2009 – Development of the the information-analytical

System for operational monitoring of economic processes in the country and the world as the basis of the Situation Room of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade. Users of the system are MEBP RK, Government, Administration of the President of Kazakhstan. Scientific management areas: - Analysis of the factors of economic growth and macroeconomic development forecast of the country in the short and medium term; - Analysis of the dynamics of the global economy, key markets, risk assessment and channels of influence on the macroeconomic development of Kazakhstan; - Analysis and evaluation of the impact of the multiplier effect of the integration processes within the CES on industries and macroeconomic parameters of Kazakhstan; - Analysis of the formation of human capital and the development of scientific approaches to social modernization of Kazakhstan (education, health, labor, employment and social protection). Member of the Council of Economic Advisors of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan (2009-2011) International Studies Expert for the Institute of Post-Crisis World October 2004 – December 2007. Director Institute of Market Relations at Karaganda State University, Professor of "Economics and International Business" April 2001-September 2004 Director of Research and Educational Complex on economic specialties of the Karaganda State University March 2000 – April 2001 1993-2000 Deputy Director for scientific research of the Institute of market relations of the MES

1990-1992 Senior Fellow at the Center of Social Sciences, Academy of Sciences of Kazakhstan 1981-1989 Researcher at the Kazakh branch of the Scientific Resarch Institute of Labor Education: Doctor of Economics, professor, 1999, - Economy and management of a national economy. Speciality of higher education - "Economics and Organization of the engineering industry", Karaganda Polytechnic Institute, 1969-1974. Additional information Won the grant for "The best teacher of the university" MES in 2007 for achievements and contribution to the development of national science and education. In 2007 became head of the Doctoral School PhD in "Economics and innovative development" at the Karaganda State University. Signed agreements on cooperation in the field of science and education visited and gave lectures in the following universities: Sheffield Hallam University (UK), Scent Istvan University (Hungary), Ural State University of Economics. 18 PhD theses and one doctoral thesis were completed under the supervision. Editor of several collections of articles, monographs, scientific editor of the "EFR Economics. Finance. Research ", published by the Institute of Economic Research. Actively publishes in leading Kazakh, Russian and foreign business magazines and journals (2009 and 2010 in the journal «WORLD FINANCE REVIEW»). Participant in international scientific and theoretical conferences in Sheffield (UK), Katowice (Poland), Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Ufa, etc.

Presentation title: Kazakhstan in the Common Economic Space: evaluation of the macroeconomic and industry effects

Abstract

Goal: Analysis and evaluation of the effects of integration processes within the CES on the economy of Kazakhstan Key issues: The highest rate of significance of mutual trade within the CES can be observed in Belarus at 46-48% in 2010-2012. Mutual trade with the CU is less important for Kazakhstan - 20%. Russia has lowest importance of mutual trade within the CU - 7-8% in 2010-2012. Migration rate within the CU is most important for Kazakhstan, it has a negative migration value with the CU -0.10% to -0.13% in 2010-2012. Money transfers from Kazakhstan to the CU countries is almost 10 times larger than transfers to Kazakhstan and amounts to $1.8 billion. Kazakhstan’s index of mutual openness of the economy with the CU was equal to 0.6% in 2010. It decreased from 0.41% in 2012.

Indicator of the significance of the gross inflow of foreign direct investment from the CU to Kazakhstan in 2010 amounted to 5.1% and decreased to 2.3% in 2012. The inflow of direct investment from Russia to the total volume of foreign direct investment in Kazakhstan amounted to 4.9% in 2010 and decreased to 1.7% in 2012. According to the calculated Grubel-Lloyd index Kazakhstan’s intra-industry trade of with the CU can be characterized by trade in mineral products, metals and their products, textiles, textile products and footwear. At the same time, Kazakhstan’s cross-sectoral trade with the CU is common for foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials, timber and pulp and paper products, machinery, equipment and vehicles. In terms of economic convergence - which is measured by the ratio of GDP by PPP per capita of the country to the average GDP by PPP per capita in the CES – no significant signs of convergence can be observed. Industry effects. 1. Assessing the impact of the unification of railway tariffs within the CES on the Kazakh economy We assessed the effect of the application of a uniform tariff on goods whose exports in January-September 2013 exceeded 1 million tons. We provide an assessment of one of these products as an example. Coal export. Lowering of the Kazakhstan transit tariff by 4 times will improve Russian producers’ competitiveness on Chinese and Kyrgyzstan markets, where they export 0.7 mln tons (3% of total coal exports). At the same time Kazakhstan’s competitiveness in Ukraine and Netherlands (main consumers of the coal that is transported through Russia, 10.6% of total coal exports) will increase because the present transit tariff is 46% lower than before. These calculations show the omni directional effects of the unification of tariffs on the exports through other CES countries. Similar analysis was performed for other groups of products: flat-rolled products, fuel oil, flour and iron ores. 2. Assessing the impact of the Agreement on the rules of access to services of gas transportation systems natural monopolies, including the basics of pricing and tariff policy One of the main features of the Kazakhstan’s gas market is a large number of gas suppliers. As of now, there are more than 90 companies in the subsoil industry, and only 16 of them have access to the pipelines. The presence of different gas suppliers caused a significant difference in prices within the country. One of the areas of integration has been the unification of prices. In one possible scenarios of unification, according to experts, the weighted average price for gas in the country can grow by 21%. Similar analysis was performed for electricity and oil products markets. Conclusions. The conducted research showed controversial results of the integration within the CES for various industries of the Kazakhstan’s economy. That can be explained by the short-term nature of the research, more time is needed for a complete and coherent evaluation of the effects of the integration.

Matthias Luecke

Kiel Institute for World Economy, Germany

Short bio note:

Matthias Luecke is a senior researcher at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany (www.ifw-kiel.de) and an adjunct professor at Kiel University. His research interests include the development effects of labor migration and remittances in migrants’ countries of origin, resource-based development, economic integration, and the relationship between globalization, technological change, and income inequality. From 2000 until 2003, Matthias Luecke was a senior economist at the IMF where he worked on the country desks for Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Moldova. He has been a consultant to national governments and international organizations. His teaching at Kiel University

focusses on the economics of European integration.

Presentation title: Alternative methodologies to assess the growth effects of economic integration: computablegeneral equilibrium (CGE) modeling vs. gravity model cum

Melitz-style productivity growth

Abstract

Trade economists have long been enthusiastic about the benefits of trade liberalization and economic integration. This view of the world is supported by the observation that over the last several decades, open economies have grown much faster than closed ones – by 1 percentage point per year or more (Sachs/ Warner and subsequent literature). However, most empirical assessments (usually CGE models) of specific trade liberalization projects like the multilateral WTO Doha round or the proposed EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) suggest merely that the level of GDP could rise by some fraction of 1 percent “in the long run”. Now a study of the TTIP based on a gravity model combined with Melitz-style productivity growth at the firm level (Felbermayr and colleagues) suggests much larger gains for both the EU and the US, along with large losses for third countries. In my talk, I will compare the assumptions and findings of these alternative approaches and discuss their applicability to the Eurasian context. I conclude (unsurprisingly) that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses and that it would be unwise for a policy-maker to rely exclusively on a single model to assess a complex issue.

Valery Heyets

Institute of Economics and Forecasting, NASU, Ukraine

Short bio note:

Valery Heyets is Academician (1995) and Vice-President (2009) of National Academy of Sciences (NAS) of Ukraine, and Director of State Organization “Institute for Economic and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine” (2005). Valery Heyets is an expert in macroeconomic, economic mathematical modeling and forecasts of economic development. His field of interest also includes such subjects as state regulation of the economic development, financial security, fiscal policy, national innovation policy, and priorities of technological modernization of the economy. As the result of his research, he has published more than 450 works, among them 39 individual and collective

monographs. Since 1991, Valery Heyets with his assistants have been presenting forecasts of Ukrainian economy at LINK-UN Project. He is Editor-in-Chief of scientific journals “Economy and Forecasting” and “Economy of Ukraine“ and member of editorial boards of several other Ukrainian and international printed media, as well as various councils and commissions in the spheres of science and education.

Presentation title: Spatial approach to the assessment of the possibilities to expand the integrational interconnections

Michael Emerson

Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), Belgium

Short bio note:

British (1940), since 1998 Michael Emerson is Associate Senior Research Fellow at CEPS, working on European foreign, security and neighbourhood policies. A graduate of Balliol College, Oxford. Career: OECD, Paris, 1966-1973; European Commission, 1973-1996, including positions of Economic Adviser to the President (Roy Jenkins), and of EU ambassador to Moscow (1991-1996); Senior Research Fellow at the London School of Economics, 1996-1998. Numerous publications on EU integration, EU foreign and security policies.

Presentation title: Greater Eurasia

Andrey Lipin

Division of Methodology and Analysis, Department of Macroeconomic Policy, Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), Russia

Short bio note:

Education: New Economic School, Moscow, M.A., Economics, 2012. Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of SB RAS, Novosibirsk, Ph.D., 2009. Novosibirsk State University, M.A., Economics, 2006. Novosibirsk State University, Diploma, 2004. Working experience 2005-2010, various real sector companies, Russia. Key responsibilities: industrial organization analysis, strategical planning. 2012-till now, Eurasian Economic Commission, Macroeconomic policy Department, Head of the macro research and analysis

Division. Key responsibilities: (1) short term (Leading Economic Indicators, FAVAR), medium term (BVAR, DSGE) and long term forecast; (2) macroeconomic policy analysis in the member states; (3) integration effects assessment at sectorial and aggregation level.

Presentation title: Integration assessment: Eurasian Economic Commission approach

Abstract

Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is forming in difficult times, that differ from the period of same EU institutions creation. One of the most important questions that Eurasian Economic Commission as supranational regulatory body must be responsible for is the assessing effects of integration and the mutual influence in the member states. The report briefly describes the tools used at the Commission, including as a simple index calculation methods and more sophisticated model based methods (GVAR, partial equilibrium models, DSGE). The report also provides insights into the development prospects of models in the direction of CGE models.

Alexander Shirov

Institute of economic forecasting RAS, Russia

Short bio note: Alexander Shirov was born February 9, 1975. Nationality: Russian. Institution (Date from-to): Moscow Institute of National Economy named by G.V. Pleckhanov, 1992-1998 Postgraduate course in the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), 1999-2002 Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, 2003

Degree or Diploma obtained M. Sc. in Economics Main topics: Using of the world economic development indicators for constructing a foreign trade block of inter-industry model. Doctorate in Economics (Ph. D) Ph.D. Thesis: The analysis and the forecast of the Russian economy and foreign trade Membership in professional bodies: Deputy Director, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences Other skills: The member of editorial board of The Eurasian economic integration Present position Deputy Director, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences Key qualifications: scientific interests are connected with the analysis and forecasting of the Russian economy, Input-Output macroeconomic models. the participant of the International IO Modelling INFORUM project since 1998 (http://inforumweb.umd.edu/Intpartn.html). Professional Experience: 1998- 2014 Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS Deputy Director, Head of department, Senior Researcher Researcher

Macroeconomics, National economy analysis and forecasting, Input-Output Modelling, Econometrics, Foreign trade. 2004-2005 Russian-European Centre for Economic Policy (RECEP), under Tacis AP2005 Senior expert Macroeconomics, monitoring of foreign trade and WTO accession progress.

Presentation title: About the principles of calculating macroeconomic effects of creating a

Free Trade Area between the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union (with Alexey Yantovsky)

Abstract

Principles of assessment of macroeconomic effects of creating a free trade area between EU and EАU Creation of a free trade area between the European Union (EU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAU) implies a solution for several key issues, which are promotional to understanding the timeliness and practicality of taking such a step. The key point of the project is the selection of such a research methodology that would not only allows obtaining scientifically substantiated quantitative evaluations of integration effects but will also provide a necessary level of transparency of the final results. It is required to determine under which the conditions and timeframes the creation of a free trade area will become feasible. All FTA creation’s effects can be divided into two categories: instant and long-term. Therefore in our opinion it is almost impossible to create a single model for estimation these effects. We need to develop more complex model toolkit, which can operate on different level of details and time slices. To ensure interpretability and comparability of results obtained under different methods the project’s database should first be determined. As integration unions (EU and EAU) differ in the level of industrial efficiency economic structure, developed integrated scenarios should provide achievement and evaluation of effects not only at the macroeconomic level but also for separate sectors. It would be practical to consider effectiveness of the “value added in exchange for technologies” approach which implies the usage of the EAU countries resource potential and creation of joint ventures focused on the united market. A wide range of models can be used to solve these problems, from macroeconomic models to general equilibrium or input-output dynamic models. Moreover, to study the effects at the individual sector levels it is reasonable to design models detailing industrial dynamics for some sectors. This in turn creates the problem of organizing the set of models into a unified multilevel forecasting and analytical system and ensuring consistency of results.

David Michael Gould

The World Bank

Short bio note:

David M. Gould is currently Lead Economist in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Region of the World Bank. Dr. Gould is the author of several books and peer reviewed journal articles on International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Economic Policy. Currently, he is leading studies on trade and financial market development in the ECA region. During his past 10 years at the World Bank, he has led large teams to deliver complex and innovative country development strategies and analytical and lending operations in Europe, Latin American, and South Asia. He holds a Ph.D. in International Economics from UCLA (1990, with honors) and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA,

2000) charter holder. Prior to the World Bank, Dr. Gould served as the Director of Global Economic Analysis at the Institute of International Finance and Senior Economist and Policy Advisor at the US Federal Reserve. He has held visiting research positions at the Central Banks of Mexico and Chile.

Presentation title: Intra-regional and extra-regional trade within Europe and the CIS countries

Stefan Meister

European Council of Foreign Relations, Berlin, Germany

Short bio note:

Stefan Meister joined the ECFR in August 2013 as a Senior Policy Fellow. Previously he worked as a Senior Research Fellow at the German Council on Foreign relations, DGAP (2008-2013) on Russia and the post-Soviet region. Stefan worked several times as an election observer for the OSCE and was responsible for education projects in Russia especially in Kaliningrad. He is member of the Laboratory of the Future of the Petersburg Dialog and the Young-Leaders Club of the German-Russian-Forum. He received a Ph.D. from the University of Jena and holds an M.A. in political science, Eastern European and contemporary history. His Ph.D. is on the “Transformation of the Russian Higher

Education System."

Stefan recently published an edited volume on Russia’s policy towards post-Soviet countries at Nomos and wrote extensively on Germany’s Russia policy, conflicts in the post-Soviet region especially the South Caucasus, the interrelationship between Russian domestic and foreign policy as well as on the EU’s Eastern Partnership.

Languages: German, English, Russian, (Polish)

Areas of expertise: German-Russian relations, Russian foreign and security policy, EU-Russia relations, Russian energy, economic, and education policy, Eastern Partnership especially in the South Caucasus and Ukraine, energy policy in the Caspian Region and Russian relations with the post-Soviet countries

Presentation title: Technical conditions versus political implementation of regional integration

The gap between economic conditions and the political decision for a rapprochement between the European Union and Eurasian Union

Abstract

Russia’s approach to develop a Customs Union and starting in 2015 an Eurasian Economic Union stands in competition to the economic integration policy of the EU in the common

neighborhood. While Russia argues, that an Eurasian post-Soviet economic integration under its leadership is a precondition for an economic integration between Vladivostok and Lisbon, the EU emphasizes that the Customs Union is not compatible with its free trade agreements. While technically in terms of standards and customs fees a common economic space of EU and Russia/EEU might be possible, the politization of their relations is the main barrier for further integration or even negotiations for more synergies. The presentation will analyze the political motivations on both sides for their competitive approach and will make recommendations how to overcome this pattern. The focus is on one hand on different member states perspective in the EU and on the other hand on the patterns of Russian relations with post-Soviet states. On both sides are different and contradictory interests which undermine a solution which could lead to a win-win situation. Ironically, the economic integration policy of Russia and the EU has become a key area of conflict while at the same time economic cooperation was always the fundament of the bilateral relations.

Peter Havlik

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) The International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Short bio note:

Peter Havlik is staff economist and former Deputy Director at The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) and guest research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). His main research areas currently cover economic transition in Central and Eastern Europe, foreign trade, competitiveness, EU integration, EU-Russian relations and analysis and forecasts of macroeconomic developments. He is also country eixpert for Russia and the Newly Independent States (NIS) at wiiw. During his career he participated in and coordinated various large projects, for instance ‘Industrial Restructuring in the NIS:

experiences of and lessons from the new EU Member States (INDEUNIS), funded by the EU Sixth Framework Programme (2005-2007) and ‘European energy security‘, a project on energy security for the OENB Jubilee fund (2008-2010). He has also contributed to and coordinated various chapters to the EU Competitiveness Reports (2003, 2009, 2012) and conducted a study on the Economic Development of the Black Sea Region for the Austrian Ministry of Economy in 2009.

Presentation title: Integration Effects Studies: Results and Policy Implications

Abstract

The presentation starts with a brief outline of the real content of EU-UA AA/DCFTA agreement, proceeds with an overview of available estimates of economic effects of BY–RU–KZ CU/SES with a particular focus on Ukraine and provides some tentative conclusions and policy implications. A list of relevant studies is provided as well.

Vladimir Nesterov

Division of Bilateral and Multilateral Cooperation, Department for Trade Policy, Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), Russia

Short bio note:

Mr. Nesterov graduated in 2009 from the Moscow State University of International Relations of the Ministry for Foreign Affaires (MGIMO-University), specialization - European Law.

Vladimir Nesterov specializes in external trade issues. He worked for International cooperation Departments of Federal Antimonopoly Service of the Russian Federation, Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation and heavy machinery holding company. He has long-term experience in issues concerning international trade cooperation, customs-tariff regulation, market access and multilateral trading system.

His current work includes participation in monitoring the legal and regulatory framework of CU/SES for compliance with the WTO Agreement, including fulfillment of Russia’s commitments to the WTO Members, issues connected to CU enlargement and relations with new potential CU Member States.

Vladimir Nesterov took up his present position at Eurasian Economic Commission in September 2013.

Presentation title: Regionalization Trends and Multilateral Trading System: Landmarks and Possibilities for Customs Union

Abstract

The simultaneous rapid development of Regional Trade Agreements and Multilateral Trading System stagnation attracts worldwide attention. The article deals with general overview of regionalization trends, lack of progress in multilateral trading system and Customs Union objectives in this context.

Nebojsa Nakicenovic

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria

Short bio note:

Nebojsa Nakicenovic is Deputy Director General/Deputy Chief Executive Officer of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Professor of Energy Economics at the Vienna University of Technology, and Director of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA).

Among other positions, Prof. Dr. Nakicenovic is member of the United Nations Secretary General High-Level Technical Group on Sustainable for Energy for All Initiative; Member of the Advisory Council of the German Government on Global Change (WBGU); Member of the Advisory Board of the World Bank

Development Report 2010: Climate Change; Member of the International Council for Science (ICSU) Committee on Scientific Planning and Review, and Member of the Global Carbon Project; Member of the Mitigation Board of the Global Network for Climate Solutions (GNCS) at the Earth Institute of Columbia University; Member of the Board, Climate Change Centre Austria (CCCA); Member of the Steering Committee of the Austrian Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (APCC); Member of the Panel on Socioeconomic Scenarios for Climate Change Impact and Response Assessments; Lead Author of Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC; Member of the Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (REN21) Steering Committee; and Member of the International Advisory Board of the Helmholtz Programme on Technology.

He is also Editorial Board Member of the following journals: International Journal on Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal on Climate Policy, the International Journal of the Institution of Civil Engineers, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, the International Journal of Energy Sector Management, and the Journal of Energy Strategy Reviews.

Prof. Dr. Nakicenovic was a Coordinating Lead Author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Fourth Assessment Report, 2002 to 2007, Coordinating Lead Author of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2001–2005, Director, Global Energy Perspectives, World Energy Council, 1993 to 1998, Convening Lead Author of the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1993 to 1995, Convening Lead Author of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 1997 to 2000, Lead Author of Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, 1999 to 2001, Convening Lead Author of the World

Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability, 1999 to 2000, Member of the International Science Panel on Renewable Energies (ISPRE), 2006 to 2008, Member of the United Nations Secretary General Advisory Group on Energy and Climate Change and Guest Professor at the Technical University of Graz, 1993–2003.

Prof. Dr. Nakicenovic holds bachelors and masters degrees in economics and computer science from Princeton University, New Jersey, USA and the University of Vienna, where he also completed his Ph.D. He also holds Honoris Causa PhD degree in engineering from the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Among Prof. Dr. Nakicenovic's research interests are the long-term patterns of technological change, economic development and response to climate change and, in particular, the evolution of energy, mobility, and information and communication technologies.

Presentation title: Eurasian Energy Perspectives in the Global Context

Stanislav Naumov

Russian Association of Public Relations (RPRA), Russia

Short bio note:

Stanislav Naumov is the President of the Russian Public Relations Association (RPRA), having previously served as the Chairman of the RPRA Committee on Social Development (2007-2008), and as the Vice-President of RPRA (June 2008 – December 2010). He is a member of the Silver Archer Prize Supervisory Board, the Chairman of the IPRA Proba Prize Jury, and a member of the “Press-zvanie” Prize Supervisory Board. He was an organizer of the “Moscow PR Days” Festival in 2011-2013 and a participant of

the Open Government Partnership 2013 conferences. He is a Class 2 Active State Advisor of the Russian Federation, a member of the reserve management staff under the patronage of the President of the Russian Federation, and a member of the Expert Council of the Agency of Strategic Initiatives. In 1997-1998 he served as the Assistant Head of the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation. In 1999-2004 he was the Assistant and Press-Secretary of the First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation. In 2004-2010 he served as Department Director, Deputy Minister and Statistics Secretary of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation. In 2010-2012 he was the Vice President on Relations with Governmental Authorities, Social Unions and Regional Policy of the Foundation for establishing a centre for the development and commercialisation of advanced technologies. In 2012 he served as the Department Director for creating a transparency system for the public administration of the Russian Federation Government. As of 2013 he is the Research Manager of the International Institute for Political Expertise, the Chairman of the Board of Directors of CROS — Public Relations & Public Affairs Company, and a Professor at the Public Policy Department of the Higher School of Economics. He has been awarded the Certificate of Honour of the Russian Federation Government (2003) and the Certificate of Honour of the Ministry of Industry and Energy (2006). On 13 November 2006 he was honoured with the Gratitude of the President of the Russian Federation for his participation in preparing a G8 leaders meeting. On 8 September 2010 he was honoured with the Gratitude of the Russian Federation Government. On 2 March 2011 he was honoured with the Gratitude of the President of the Russian Federation for his outstanding contribution to preparing and holding the All-Russian Innovation Forum “Russia, Forward!” In 2006 the project “Communicative Technologies of Industrial Policy” earned the “Silver Archer” Certificate of the national prize for public relations development. He was a laureate of the “Most Influential People of Russia” Prize in 2010 in the “Public Officials” nomination (“Russian Reporter” magazine).

Presentation title: Infrastructure in energy and transport – the basis for the Integration

Marek Dabrowski

Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE), Poland

Short bio note: Dr. Marek Dabrowski, Professor of Economics, Co-founder, than Chairman of the Supervisory Council and President of CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research (until 2011),currently CASE Fellow, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of CASE Ukraine in Kyiv, Member of the Scientific Council of the E.T. Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy in Moscow; Former First Deputy Minister of Finance (1989-1990), Member of Parliament (1991-1993) and Member of the Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland (1998-2004); Since the end of 1980s he has been involved in policy advising and policy research in Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Egypt,

Georgia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Macedonia, Moldova, Mongolia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Syria, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Yemen, as well as in a number of international research projects related to monetary and fiscal policies, growth and poverty, currency crises, international financial architecture, perspectives of European integration, European Neighborhood Policy and political economy of transition; He is also familiar with number of Asian economies such as Japan, China, India, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam; World Bank and UNDP Consultant; Author of several academic and policy papers, and editor of several book publications.

Presentation title: EU’s cooperation with non-member neighboring countries: the lessons

for other integration blocks

Abstract

The European Union (EU) represents the large and highly integrated bloc which contributed 19.4% of world’s GDP and over 30% of global export in 2012. Since July 1, 2013 it consists of 28 member states. All the EU members belong to the customs union and Single European Market (SEM) in which most of formal and informal barriers to free movement of goods, services, people and capital have been removed. In addition, 18 member states share the common currency (Euro) and 23 member states plus 4 non-member states form a common area without internal border control (the Schengen zone).

Within the EU important areas of economic policy, for example, external trade, customs, competition, other regulations related to SEM functioning, monetary policy (in case of Eurozone members), part of fiscal and other macroeconomic policies, part of indirect taxation, research, energy policy, etc. have been transferred to the competence of supranational EU governing bodies. Several other institutional and political questions such as immigration and asylum, visas, common border management, justice and home affairs, foreign and security policy remain subject of coordination and common decisions of the EU. Since almost beginning of its existence the EU and its predecessor (European Economic Community EEC) have been involved in building close economic and political relations with non-member countries, involving variety of legal forms: association agreements (AAs), free trade agreements (FTAs), bilateral or multilateral sector agreements, bilateral action plans, etc. and various substantial contents. The EU has been always flexible in offering or accepting the exact cooperation model, trying to adjust itself to specific needs, constraints and concerns of individual partner. As result, it has led to building a complex net of cooperation agreements which represent various degree of eventual integration simple FTA, deep and comprehensive FTA, customs union, membership in the European Economic Area (AEA), EU membership – and various speeds and intermediate stages of integration. In building cooperation and integration arrangements the EU respects sovereignty concerns of its partners. In particular, it never pushes any country to join the EU or sign AA or FTA. The EU membership is considered as a scarce good, membership in the elite club of developed and rich nations, a prize for good policies and good domestic institutions which can be offered to the potential candidate. The same principle works in case of AAs and FTAs with countries which are not going to join the EU, especially those located in the EU neighborhood: it is an offer and prize for good performance rather than instrument of economic or political pressure. This is a choice of a potential partner to accept, postpone or completely reject such a cooperation offer. The EU’s experience in building complex and flexible net of economic and political relations with non-member countries can serve as a good lesson and example to follow by other regional integration blocks which also face the problem of shaping their external relations with countries which are interested in close cooperation but not membership in a given block. On the other hand, the EU’s institutional flexibility creates room for negotiating cross-regional trade and economic integration deals not only with individual countries but also with other blocks such as NAFTA, MERCOSUR, ASEAN or Eurasian Economic Community.

Volodymyr Panchenko

International Centre for Policy Studies, Ukraine

Short bio note: Volodymyr Panchenko joined the ICPS team in February 2012 as a member of the Board. In June 2012, he became a member of the ICPS General Meeting. Since January 2013, he has been acting Director of the Center. Mr. Panchenko has management experience, project management, a high level of technical and technological knowledge, an understanding of business needs and the problems business encounters when dealing with government. In addition, he is an accomplished writer and journalist, is fluent in English, and has experience interacting with foreign investors.

In 1986, Mr. Panchenko graduated from the Dnipropetrovsk Institute of Transport Engineering. In 2005, he received his MBA from the International Management Institute, and a Masters of Public Administration from the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Institute of Public Administration of the National Academy of Public Administration under the Office of the President of Ukraine in 2011. In 2009, he became a Candidate of Historical Studies. During his professional career, Mr. Panchenko has been in managerial positions in both retail and manufacturing enterprises and served as a commercial and financial director, external relations director, and the director and president of a company. He also worked as head of the industrial policy department at the National Space Agency of Ukraine. There, he directed the development and adoption of the Ten Program at the Agency, a program for managing its enterprises following new, market rules. In 2003, he joined forces with like-minded colleagues to launch the Institute of Social Studies, an NGO that operates to this day as an independent research and educational foundation specializing in professional research and the popularization of key themes in Ukrainian history. In 2009, Mr. Panchenko began his career in Ukraine’s civil service. From May 2010 through October 2011, he worked as director of investment and innovation policy at the Ministry of Economy. His duties included coordinating the EU-funded project "Improving Strategies, Policies and the Regulation of innovation in Ukraine," directing the preparation of the final project document, "Policy Proposals to Improve Innovative Activity in Ukraine," and coordinating a project in support of public-private partnerships in Ukraine funded by USAID. He was also responsible for supporting the Ukrainian side in the Ukraine-Austria Commission for

Investment and Innovation. He was also involved in the development of a program to reform the Economy Ministry and the development an overall economic development strategy for Ukraine. Since 2010, Mr. Panchenko has been a member of the KOLO club, which consists of managers and administrators from the public and private sectors, civil servants, business professionals, scientists and artists—people who want to improve themselves in order for there to be motivated, competent government in the country based on both management and ideas. Volodymyr Panchenko is the author of a number of publications in academic journals and the general press. He has also done in-depth research into the development of economic platforms among nationalist organizations in Ukraine over 1920-1950.

Presentation title: EU-Ukraine DCFTA impact on the Ukrainian economy and specific sectors

Olga Pindyuk

Vienna Institute for Economic Studies (wiiw), Austria

Short bio note: Olga Pindyuk is Staff Economist at wiiw. Her research focuses on foreign trade, financial markets, and macroeconomics. She is a country expert for Kazakhstan and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). She has extensive experience with services trade data and does research on modelling trade costs in services trade and on linkages between producer services trade and manufacturing. Previously, she worked as a consultant with the World Bank (Ukraine office) and the DFID Ukraine Trade Policy Project. She also worked as a head of research department in UkrSybbank / BNP Paribas. Currently she is a PhD student in

Economics at the Johannes Kepler University in Linz.

Presentation title: Trade integration in the CIS: Economic effects of alternative options

Abstract Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine have been trying to achieve mutual trade liberalization since the early 1990-ies, but until the Customs Union formation (between Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia), their attempts were rather futile. Formation of the Customs Union did not satisfy the Kemp-Wan theorem conditions for being Pareto-improving: import tariffs were increased in many sectors of Kazakhstan and in some sectors of Russia. If Ukraine joins the CU, its import tariffs will also have to be raised in most sectors (which would be a violation of its commitments to the WTO). We model possible results of the creation of the Customs Union, and also two alternative options of economic integration for Ukraine: a free trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU, and joining the Customs Union. We employ a multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in our analysis. Joining the CU brings net GDP losses to Kazakhstan and potentially to Ukraine. Belarus and Russia benefit from the CU in terms of GDP and labor income, but these benefits are relatively small. There is not much additional benefit for Russia from Ukraine joining the CU.

Vladimir Salnikov

Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), Russia

Short bio note: Education: 1998 – Ph.D. in Economics, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences / 1994 – Degree in Economic Cybernetics, Economic department, Moscow State University Employment: 2008-present time – Vice-director, Head of the real sector department (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting); Head of the Laboratory for industry analysis and forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) 1992-2008 – Assistant, Junior researcher, Researcher, Leading

expert, Head of the real sector department // Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, RAS Fields of interest/responsibilities: Economic growth and competitiveness issues in real sector Effects estimation for policy decisions (industrial sectors level) Analysis of the current tendencies in Russian industrial sector Industry forecasting (output, prices, revenues and costs, investment activity, short-term, medium-term, long-term) Large-scale modeling: input-output model of Russian economy (100 sectors apprx.), stress-test/bankruptcy models for Russian real-sector (firms level) Time-series analysis (seasonal adjustment, outliers and trend direction detection, etc.) Expert activity: Member of the Working group “Sectoral and infrastructural policy” of Presidents’s Economic Council Member of Science board of Institute of Economic Forecasting (RAS) Member of the Working group of the Expert council (Government of the Russian Federation) Regular expert support for the Government of the Russian Federation (2008-2012), Ministry of Economic Development (2006-present), Ministry of Industry and Trade (2007-2012), President’s Administration (present) Regular comments in mass-media Completed projects (recent 3 years, largest projects only): 1. Head of the project “Common customs tariff optimization support and tools development” (Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, first stage of the project’s completed, 2013)

2. Leading participant, “Estimating long-term prospects of economic growth and macroeconomic policy support for Custom Union and United Economic Space”, Eurasian Economic Commission, 2013-2014 3. Head of the project “Estimating effects of joining Custom Union for several countries of CIS” (Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, 2013) 4. Leading participant, “Long-term forecast for passengers flows in Russia” (Federal Passenger Company, 2013) 5. Head of the project “Monitoring key trends and estimating economic policy effects for industrial sectors” (Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, 2012) 6. Head of the project “Short-term and medium-term forecasting for labor demand and labor productivity by sectors” (Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, 2012) 7. Leading participant, “Macroeconomic risks management, crisis forecasting and crisis prevention policy development” (Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, 2012-2013) 8. Leading participant, “Methodology and tools for medium-term stress-testing of the Russian economy” (Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, 2012) 9. Head of the project “Methodology and tools for managing long-term industrial development of the Russian economy” (Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, 2011) 10. Leading participant, “Analysis of import dynamics on key product markets in 2007-2011” (Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, 2011) 11. Head of the project, “Long-term (2030) forecasting for the real sector of the Russian economy, including product balances.” (Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, 2011)

Presentation title: Estimating inter-industry firms cooperation effects in integrating countries: cases for Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia

Abstract

We developed methodology and got estimates of maximum possible growth of net export and value added caused by increasing production cooperation between countries. We based our methodology on the following assumptions: 1. Integration increases mutual trade in raw materials of relatively better quality than domestic materials between integrating countries. 2. Using resources of better quality improves the quality of final products. 3. Releasing factors of production due to import growth are redistributed into more effective companies. In our research we used detailed input-output data on 70 industrial sectors. As a result of our research we got the estimation of final effects for Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia as well as quantitative estimates for assumptions 2 and 3.