Meteorological Concepts for Soaring in the Western U.S. Dan Gudgel Meteorologist/Towpilot/CFIG.
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Transcript of Meteorological Concepts for Soaring in the Western U.S. Dan Gudgel Meteorologist/Towpilot/CFIG.
![Page 1: Meteorological Concepts for Soaring in the Western U.S. Dan Gudgel Meteorologist/Towpilot/CFIG.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022013100/551696fe550346f6208b48f7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Meteorological Concepts for Soaring in the Western U.S.
Dan Gudgel
Meteorologist/Towpilot/CFIG
![Page 2: Meteorological Concepts for Soaring in the Western U.S. Dan Gudgel Meteorologist/Towpilot/CFIG.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022013100/551696fe550346f6208b48f7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Presentation Points
1. Weather Information Sources2. Meteorology Points3. Synoptic Scale Weather Patterns4. A Forecast Funnel5. Miscellaneous Info
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1. Weather Information Sources
Weather Data
• Internet (use “search engines”)•Site addresses change frequently for this medium•Customize access list for efficient data retrieval
• Review AC-006, Aviation Weather• Review AC-45E, Aviation Weather Services
• Other Information Sources
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Internet Weather Data
• Upper Air Temperature Soundings• Observed and Forecast Weather Charts• Model Forecasts• Satellite Imagery
•Education / Explanations•Soaring Category Info
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National Weather Service
<http://www.weather.gov>• NWS National Homepage
•Select area of interest (‘clickable’ map)• All Western Region NWS Offices listed
• Numerous weather links•Current weather•Forecast models•Satellite images•Aviation Wx Center•Other sites
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Forecast Systems Laboratory<http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/mab/soundings>
•Forecast Upper Air Temperature Soundings•40Km grid resolution•Out to 16 Hours•Spot forecasts (By airport)
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Unisys Weather<http://weather.unisys.com/index.html>
• Upper Air Temperature Soundings• Constant Pressure Charts• Model Forecast Charts• Education / Explanations
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National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) [et al.]
<http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/>
• Upper Air Data (Temperature/Relative
Humidity/Wind Info)
• Other weather data
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Other Weather Info SourcesFor the Aircraft Category
• Fixed base operators• Soaring Society of America• Associated sites
• Other Sources• Newspapers• NWS Weather Radio• FAA DUATS
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2. Meteorology Points
• Atmospheric Soundings• Great Basin Applications
• Convection concepts• Climate Aspects• Local Influences
Altitude
Temperature
Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rate5.4 deg F/1000 Ft
Average Lapse Rate 3.5 deg F per 1000 Ft
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Sounding Basics
• Small day-to-day changes can make big differences in a soaring day's characteristics
• Spot observation versus need to assess task area air mass, including discontinuity lines
• Altitude noted by Pressure-850 mb 5000 Feet (MSL)-700 mb 10,000 Feet-500 mb 18,000 Feet
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Sounding Sources
•University of Utah Upper Air Link http://
www.met.utah.edu/jhorel/html/wx/skewt.html•Unisys Weather Upper Air Link
http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/index.html
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Lapse Rate Definitions
Altitude
Temperature
Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rate5.4 deg F/1000 Ft
Average Lapse Rate 3.5 deg F per 1000 Ft
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Lapse Rates
Dryand
Moist
Adiabatic
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Definitions - Stable/UnstableDry Atmospheric Conditions
Altitude
Temperature +
+
d
A B
A - Temperature decreasing greater than Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rate denotes unstable atmospheric conditions
B - Temperature not decreasing as fast as Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rate denotes more stable atmospheric conditions
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Temperature Inversions Surface-Based and Aloft
Altitude Altitude
Temperature Temperature
Surface-Based
Aloft
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Wind Shear
•Wind velocity is a change in speed and/or direction•Temperature inversions are boundaries of air layers•Shear zone may not be deep or turbulent but...
•Each layer of air can have a differentcharacteristics:
- Wind velocity- Moisture- Parameter gradients
Altitude
Temperature +
+
Wind
Wind
SHEAR
ZONE
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Profiles• A mixed atmosphere is near-adiabatic (left)• Subsidence from high pressure “caps”
convection but high enough to facilitate soaring over terrain (right)
TemperatureTemperature
Alt. Alt.
d d
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Surface-Based Inversion Established with Time
d
Alt.
Temperature(0600 LT) (0100 LT) (2000 LT) (1700 LT) Time of Day
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Surface-Based Inversion Erosion with Time
d
Alt.
Temperature
(0600 LT) (0900 LT) (1100 LT) (1400 LT)Time of Day
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Cloud Base / Moisture Layers
•T / DP Closure Possible Cloud Layers
•Moist Adiabatic Lapse Rate
Altitude
Temperature
Cloud Layer
Cloud Layer
DewPoint
Temperature
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The Drying Process
Rising,CoolingCondensing
Sinking, HeatingDrying
OwensValley
SierraNevada
GreatBasin
San Joaquin Valley
5K Ft
Moisture, DeficitAir
MSL
WhiteMtns5000 Ft MSL
10000 Ft MSL
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De-Stabilizing ProcessColder Air Advection above, and/or
Warm Air Advection below will de-stabilize
• Delta-T increase!
• Moisture presence also de-stabilizes
Altitude
Temperature
Warming
Cooling
T Increasing
d
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Basin Thunderstorm / Microbursts
• Develop Adjacent cells• Classic short duration• 60Kt+ Sink Rates• Regardless of cell size• Wind shifts• Degrade ceiling and visibility
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Mojave Desert Downburst
Courtesy of Caracole Soaring, California City, CA)
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Microburst Sounding
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Thunderstorm Activity (#1)
• Presence of "cap"; and "penetration" of cap (observed time vs. forecast time?)
• Winds aloft•Cell movement•Anvil spread
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Thunderstorm Activity (#2)
• Air mass Thunderstorms•Favored spots
• Outflow
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Radar
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Classic Supercell Thunderstorm
0 5 10Nautical miles
Light Rain
Moderate/Heavy Rain & Hail
Supercell Thunderstorm(top view)
Anvil Edge
Gust Front
WSR-88D Radar Image
N
Hook echo
Hook echo
National Weather Service www.weather.gov
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Convection CirculationTemperature Differences
• Uneven heating leads to differing air density and ultimately supports a thermal circulation
• Terrain/slope contributions• Surface heating capacity = f(ground and lower air
mass moisture content)
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Elevated Thermal SourceGreat Basin Mountains
• Mountain slopes normal to incoming energy
• Less attenuation•Air density•Moisture•Pollutants
• Less mass of air to heat for greater buoyancy
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Climate and Other Influences
• Climate and Terrain Considerations• Modifying Influences and Contributions• Thunderstorm Indices
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Climate and TerrainGreat Basin
• Time of year•Diurnal temperature spread
• Humidity factors• Terrain rising aspects (and TAS)
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Sunset / Sunrise / Normal TempsReno, NV
• Sunrise / Sunset•June 1 5:34 AM PDT / 8:20 PM PDT•July 1 5:35 AM PDT / 8:30 PM PDT•Aug 1 5:58 AM PDT / 8:12 PM PDT•Sep 1 6:27 AM PDT / 7:30 PM PDT
• Normal Maximum/Minimum Temperatures•June 81.5 / 44.3 (T=37.2F)•July 91.0 / 49.3 (T=41.7F)•Aug 89.7 / 47.2 (T=42.5F)
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Great Basin Temps
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The Drying Process
Rising,CoolingCondensing
Sinking, HeatingDrying
OwensValley
SierraNevada
GreatBasin
San Joaquin Valley
5K Ft
Moisture, DeficitAir
MSL
WhiteMtns5000 Ft MSL
10000 Ft MSL
![Page 39: Meteorological Concepts for Soaring in the Western U.S. Dan Gudgel Meteorologist/Towpilot/CFIG.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022013100/551696fe550346f6208b48f7/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Washoe Zephyr
Mono Lake
Modified Basin Air
Mono Lake Shear
Carson Sink
Major Modifying Influences(#1)
• Washoe Zephyr• Nevada Sinks• Mono Lake Shear• Basin Air• Terrain "Holes"
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Topaz Flow
Mono Lake
Mammoth Lakes
June Lake
Mammoth Pass
Major Modifying Influences(#2)
• Topaz Flow• Mammoth Lakes• June Lake
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Pressure PatternsFavorable for Great Basin Soaring
• High location (aloft)-Ridge aloft east of task area (or far west)
• Low pressure (aloft)-Not strong or close enough to bring strong gradient wind
• De-stabilizing Influences-Split flow in the upper wind field with weak trough
•Allows for Instability aloft but good surface heating
• Thermal Trough (surface)-Through interior CA (better if along the coast!)
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Pressure Gradients(#1)
Stable Air Movement to the Western Great Basin
•Great Basin to Interior California* 4 mb Reno to Sacramento delta-P inhibits Washoe Zephyr development
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Pressure Gradients(#2)
Stable Air Movement to the Western Great Basin
•South CA Coast to Desert Interior* Depth of marine layer greater than 1500' MSL* 3+ mb Los Angeles (LAX) to Daggett (DAG)
•Central CA Coast to Desert Interior* 6+ mb San Francisco to Las Vegas* Depth of marine layer greater than 2000' MSL
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Thermal DetractorsMacro-scale Level
Cirrus Anvil from ThunderstormsCirrus
•Around jet stream cores•Small pressure perturbations / waves
Convective Cloud Cover•More than 50% sky cloud cover
Other•Relative Humidity gradients
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Thermal EnhancersGreat Basin
Rising terrain steps to southeast of Minden•Minden to Patterson/Bridgeport +2000'•Patterson to Whites +1000' and more
Convergence / Shear•Mono Lake Shear Line•Flying “M” Shear Line
Small air basins•Fixed volume of air to heat (valley vs. plain)
Other•Summer wave or wave-encouraged cloud streets
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Mojave Desert Shearlines
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Mono Lake Shear Line
• Mono Lake Shear Line “Typically” present• Example: 6/13/99
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Mono Lake Shear Line
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Mono Lake Shear Line
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Flying “M” Shear Line
• Flying “M” Shear Line “Typically” present• Example: 6/14/99
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Flying “M” Shear Line
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Flying “M” Shear Line
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Mountain Wave
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Mountain Wave
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Mountain Wave
• Wave Presence for Long Distance Flight• Example: 6/15/99
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Moisture SurgesWarm Season Sources
• Southwest U.S. Monsoon-Low level and/or mid-level
• Significantly deep trough developing moisture field due to the dynamics
-But a southwest flow is generally a very dry flow• East Pacific hurricane activity
-Mid/High Clouds with a major hurricane release of its accompanying moisture
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East vs. West Great Basin
• Time of Year Sub-Tropical Moisture Progression– Parawon UT (Late June/Early July)– East NV (Mid-Late July)– West NV (Late July/Early August)
• Slower Thermal Processes– Dry west; Slower start per moisture-deficit– More attenuation; CA and local “Haze”– West NV, slightly lower terrain
• West Great Basin Enhancements– Shear line influences prevalent within 50 s.m. of the Sierra
Nevada Front
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Soaring = f(Moisture Changes)
• Moisture Contribution– Dew Points rise to the southeast over the Great Basin
• La Nina/El Nino Influences– La Nina
• Dry south; Thunderstorms develop less frequently
– El Nino• Moist ground delays (thermal) soaring season• Upon initiation, more thunderstorm activity
– Other Climatic Oscillations’ Impact?• Arctic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal, Madden-Julian Oscillation
Hypothesis: Annual Climate Changes Impact Soaring
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Infrared Satellite Imagery• Cloud top temperature• Good delineator for high clouds
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Water Vapor Satellite Imagery• Moist and dry air boundaries• Active convection often along interface• Determine Raob representativeness of task area?
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3. Synoptic-Scale Weather Patterns
Weather Types Favorable to Long Distance Soaring
Type #1: Four-Corner High Type #2: Strong Ridge Type #3: Low Center, Trough, Short-wave Proximity Type #4: Building Ridge Aloft
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Type #1: The Four-Corner High
• High pressure centered aloft near the Four Corner area of the Southwest U.S.
• Most recognized, "Classic" long flight pattern• Good low level heating de-stabilizes the air mass
-Light surface wind-Lower layer warm air advection
• Monsoon moisture tap ... therefore usually not a long-lived pattern
• Good soaring ... but days get truncated with afternoon TSTMs... often widespread
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Type #1: 6/18/88
ASI to Keeler and return
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6/18/88 Raobs
• WMC 94/50• RNO 90/58• TPH 83/52• LAS 98/78
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Type #2: Strong Ridge
• Light wind• Low level heating• Thermal trough well to the west of task area• Impulse aloft over ridge axis; or,• Ridge axis aloft east of the task area
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Type #2: 8/9/96Long-lived, extraordinary patternNumerous 1000Km flightsOver a 4-day period
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8/9/96
WMC 98/48
RNO 95/53
TPH 95/61
LAS 99/80
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Type #3: Low Center, Trough, or Short Wave Proximity
• Ridge axis to the east; Trough axis proximity• De-stabilizing by cold air advection aloft• But light wind and/or split in the jet aloft• Thermal trough closer to NV; but...• Low level Zephyr washout delayed• Still able to heat lower levels• Prevalent pattern for long distance soaring!
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Type #3: 7/7/88Flight of 350 miles
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7/7/88 Raobs
WMC 84/54RNO 84/49TPH 90/56LAS 103/77
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Type #3(a): Proximity of Low Pressure Center
Low off Southern California coast provides cooler air aloft upstream to de-stabilize
Elevated heat source influence contributions
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Type #3(a): 6/19/93
1000Km flights from TruckeeAnd Minden area
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6/19/93 Raobs
WMC 86/47RNO 88/57TPH 86/54LAS 94/72
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Type #4: Building Ridge Aloft2 Examples / Next 4 Slides
Temperature trend upward•Surface temps climbing faster than aloft•Subsidence not strong•Large diurnal temperature spread in transition
Light wind aloft•Height gradient small
Suppression of westerly washout
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Type #4: 6/13/88500 Mile Flight
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6/13/88 Raobs
WMC 81/42RNO 81/27 (!!!)TPH 78/MLAS 95/70
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77Map Types also varied as season passed!
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4. Weather Forecasting
• Forecast Funnel• Soaring Indices• Automated Soaring Forecasts
•Dr. Jack and BLIPMAP•Other Automated Forecasts
• NWS IFPS (Gridded Data)
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A Glider Pilot’s Forecast FunnelA Process of Soaring Forecast Refinement
• Site Climate• Outlook Forecasts• Extended and Zone
Forecasts (2-7 Day)• Persistence• Flight Day
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Soaring Indices(#1)
Great Basin
• Thermal Index
- Lift = f(T)
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Soaring Indices (#2)
Great Basin
• Soaring Index
- Lift = f(Convection Altitude and T)
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Soaring Indices (#3)
Great Basin
• Vertical Totals [T(deg C) 850 mb to 500 mb]
- Upper 20s average to good- 30 to 34 very good- 35+ excellent (too unstable many times)
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Instability Indices(#1)
Great Basin
• K-Index
•Uses Vertical Totals and 2 fixed reference levels T(C) + 850 dew point(C) - 700 dew point depression(C)•5+ = some cumulus possibilities•Thunderstorms increase in the 10-15 range
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Instability Indices (#2)
Great Basin
• Lifted Index (LI) and Showalter Index (SI)
•Lower layer moisture influences on the convection process / thunderstorm indicator
• > 10 stable (weak convection)• < -4 too unstable (severe weather)
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Thermal Lift Indices Work
• Thermal Index (Williams/Higgins)
• Maximum Lift (Lindsay/Lacy)
• Soaring Support (Aldrich/Marsh)
• Soaring Index (Armstrong-Hill)
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Wave Strength Forecasting
Wave Nomogram (Herold/Armstrong)
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Traditional Soaring Forecasts
• Persistence• Nowcasting
– Soundings– Satellite– Analysis
• Algorithm Use
Altitude
Temperature
Warming
Cooling
T Increasing
d
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Thermal Index Prediction (TIP)Dr. John W. (Jack) Glendening
• Estimate for the Current Day Thermal Soaring Potential
• Two Day Thermal Soaring Outlook
• Several Sites• Mountain Top
Experiment (Walker Ridge)
URL: http://www.drjack.net/TIP/index.htmlURL: http://www.drjack.net/TIPEX/index.html
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Boundary Layer Information Predictor
Maps(BLIPMAP)
•Single Time or Sequence
URL: www.drjack.net/BLIPMAP/index.html
•Thermal Soaring Parameters (over a geographic region)
-Numerical Model Outputs•General Air Mass Lift
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Wind Information Predictions (WINDIP)
(Simple Mountain Wave Prediction)
• “Alert” WINDIP E-Mail List
• Assumptions
• Longer Forecast Time PredictionsURL: http://www.drjack.net/WINDIP/index.html
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Linear Wave Interpretation Page (LWIP)
• Description
• Interpretation
• Notes
• Links
URL: http:// www.drjack.net/LWIP/index.html
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Automated Thermal Soaring Forecasts
• Two Parts:
1.Pure Model Output (top portion)
2.NWS Forecast Temps as base (lower portion)
• Limitations• NWS Websites
Walt Rogers (WX), MIC CWSU ZLA
URL: http://www.weather.gov/***** where ***** is NWS Office Name, I.e., Hanford, Oxnard, etc.
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Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS)
• Man-Machine Mix
•“Flagship” Products Not Text -Forecasters Edit Gridded Data•Graphical Products -Customer Requested Output
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Gridded Data
Graphical Display of Requested Weather Parameter(s)
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5. Miscellaneous Information
• Aero-medical Considerations
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Aeromedical ConsiderationsSoaring good enough that...
Oxygen requirements
Water
Sun protection
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Meteorological Concepts for Soaring in the Western U.S.
Dan GudgelMeteorologist/Towpilot/CFIG
134 South Olive StreetLemoore, CA 93245(w)559-584-3752 ext.223(h)559-924-7134