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Metaphors in futures researchOsmo Kuusi Adjuct professor in Futures and Innovation Studies, Aalto University, School of Science Turku UniversityWhat Futures Ltd.osmo.kuusi@utu.fi

Definitions of metaphors Etymology (from Wikipedia): from the Greek μεταφορά

(metaphorá), "transfer". Aristotle: Metaphor consists in giving the thing a name that belongs to something else, “Achilles is a lion”

Aristotle did not make highly relevant distinction between metaphor and metonymy.

Roman Jacobson and Morris Halle (1956) reported two types of aphasic disturbances: not able to identify (structural) similarity between two things; unable to identify a contiguity (e.g. one is a part of something else) between two things (kingdom – crown)

;

"Metaphors We Live By" by George Lakoff and Mark Johnson (1980, 2003)

ARGUMENT IS WAR related metaphors:Your claims are indefensibleHe attacked every weak point in my argument. His criticisms were right on target. I've never won an argument with him. You disagree? Okay, shoot down my arguments.

He attacked every weak point in my argument. His criticisms were right on target. I've never won an argument with him. You disagree? Okay, shoot down my arguments.

Metaphors in the futures research Basic metaphor: Future is a

journey Use/critic of culturally accepted

metaphors in scenarios, especially Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

New metaphors: innovative or conservative

Basic metaphor of the scientific futures Basic metaphor of the scientific futures research: Futures map like a geographical mapresearch: Futures map like a geographical map

- Map is a source of information about the scenery

- In geographical mapping, the elementary symbols and patterns of the map represent different elements of the scenery, e.g.

dangerous rocks, isles, trees, meadows…

- To the basic elements of the futures map belong possible happenings in the future, possible “paths” (scenarios)

proceeding from one happening (scene) to the next and so on- The futures map typically shows especially interesting/favorable

“places” on the futures map: visions - In order to attain the vision - or any interesting place on the

map- good choices of paths are needed

Acceptable

Time

Now Trend

Vision Preferred futures

Mapping horizon

Planning horizon

Validity criteria of the futures maps

Six criteria that -ceteris paribus or when futures maps FM1 and FM2 are equally valid in other criteria - mean that the FM1 is more valid than FM2

Methods of the scientific futures research are focused on different validity criteria

Futures map based list of quality criteria

1. FM1 suggests more possible futures than FM2 that might be relevant from the int of view of the vision or acceptable futures (amount of possibly relevant paths)

2. FM1 is able to identify most relevant futures better than FM2 (important relevant futures)

3. FM1 scenario paths are in line with more futures relevant facts than FM2 (more causally relevant facts )

4. FM1 explained facts/ scenario paths is higher than in FM2 (effectively identified and explained facts)

5. FM1 is understood by more customers than FM2 (many understand) 6. FM1 is better understood by those who understand FM2 (better

understood)

Summary evaluation of the Radical Technology Inquirer

Validity criterion (scale: 0-6) Recently Possible

1: Wide scope of possible future paths

4 6

2: Most relevant futures paths 2 5

3: Covering explanation of past facts

3 6

4: Most relevant past facts are explained

1 2

5: Many people understand the map/ simple visualization

1 5

6: Relevant experts understand the map

2 5

Metaphors and Causal Layered AnalysisLevels of the Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) (Inayatullah,

2004) The first level is the litany — the official unquestioned view of reality. The second level is the social causation level, the systemic

perspective. The data of the litany is explained and questioned at this second level.

The third level is the discourse/worldview. Deeper, unconsciously held ideological, worldview and discursive assumptions are unpacked at this level. As well, how different stakeholders construct the litany and system is explored.

The fourth level is the myth/metaphor, the unconscious emotive dimensions of the issue.

Could we trust on the Northern Sea Route? Russia’s national artery: Northern Sea Route

The world is facing a revolution in the transcontinental navigation. Russia is prepared to greet all colors of the world at its Arctic gates – at the Northern Sea Route. What possibilities for the humankind does the «central avenue» of the Russian Arctic open? The Earth's nature has given yet another present to people – the prospects of navigation via the Northern Sea Route all year round are becoming more real. The climate warming turns navigable those areas that only recently were filled with ice pack five meters thick.

Should we trust on this: “Russia is prepared to greet all colors of the world at its Arctic gates”

Mythology of distrust, proverbs:Trust, but verify (Russian proverb, favorite of Ronald Reagan)Mistrust before you trust (Arabian Proverb)Never trust a fool with a sword (Arabian Proverb)In God we trust, all others we virus scan (new saying, much cited in internet)Trust must be earned (much cited saying in internet)

Mythology of trust Try and trust will move mountains (traditional

proverb based on the Bible) Skill and confidence are an unconquered army

(Italian proverb) Trust permits risk, which permits change, which

permits growth (new saying, cited in internet)

Litany proverb for politicians:

He who trusts is happy; the doubter is wise. (Hungarian Proverb)

Scenarios and metaphors (Ruuta Ruttas 2008)

Metaphors have been used in the sketching of basic ideas of scenarios as well as in the interpretation of weak signals.

They are useful in social brainstorming sessions. Perhaps the best connection for their use is in participatory activities where time is limited, the number of participants is quite big, and it is important to reach a common understanding.

It is also possible to use them for interpreting research results.

Our organization will be in 2020 Castle Swamp Road Hurricane Fish

Etc.

Emotional anticipation: ”Money to Greece goes to black hole” (Source: Ruuta Ruttas)

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Weak signals in different contexts (Ruttas 2008)

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Initial context

The Signal

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Anthropomimetischer Robotertorso - ECCEROBOT

Thank you very much!

For the picture thanks to:Kerstin Cuhlskerstin.cuhls@isi.fraunhofer.de and Bruno Granschebruno.gransche@isi.fraunhofer.de