Mesoscale NWP Model Intercomparison for The Maritime ......27 Jan 2002, 0200 LT 27 Jan 2002, 0300 LT...
Transcript of Mesoscale NWP Model Intercomparison for The Maritime ......27 Jan 2002, 0200 LT 27 Jan 2002, 0300 LT...
Mesoscale NWP Model Intercomparisonfor The Maritime Continent :
Preliminary Results and Future Plans
Tri Wahyu Hadi
Atmospheric Science Research GroupFaculty of Earth Sciences and Technology
Institut Teknologi BandungINDONESIA
Acknowledgement
• Kyoto University Active Geosphere Investigationfor The 21st Century COE Program (KAGI 21) :Profs. T. Tsuda and S. Yoden
• Institute for Research and Community Services (LPPM), ITB : Prof. Emmy Suparka
• MEXT Special Coordination Funds for PromotingScience and Technology
• Research assistants and students : Nurjanna Joko T.,I Dewa G. A. Junnaedhi, Amry Widyatmoko
• Other supporting agencies and research collaborators
Outline
1.Background and Motivation
2.Previous works and some results :• Near real-time downscaling experiments• A numerical study on strong convective
system
3. Current works • Mesoscale NWP model intercomparison• Another study on strong convective system
4. Future Plans
Background and Motivation :Meteorological Disasters in The Maritime Continent of Indonesia
Small “twister” in Yogyakarta (http://www.detik.com and other web sites)
“Extreme” Winds
• Small scale but relatively strong transient weather disturbance
• Torrential rain due to mesoscale convective system
• Increasing frequency and intensity (?)
• Effort to reduce these disaster necessitates a high resolution NWP system
“Extreme” Rainfall
Flooding over wide area (Aceh 2006, Central Java 2008)
Severe floods in Jakarta, Jan/Feb 2002, Feb. 2007, Feb 2008
Previous Works and Some Results :Near Real-Time Downscaling Experiments (1)
Global domain
Data freely available on the internet,NCEP GFS global model output :• Horizontal resolution : 0.5° & 1° available• Vertical resolution : 24 sigma levels • Time resolution : 3 hr (downloaded at 6 hr
interval)• Prediction range : up to 384 hr (var. res.)• Number of output parameters : 128 • GRIB ver. 2 data format
Targetted regional model characteristics
• Coarse grid res. : 30 km x 30km• Finer grid res. : 10 km x 10 km• Vertical resolution : 32 sigma levels • Time resolution : 3 hr• Two-way nesting between coarse and
finer domain
(figure by JMA)
Regional Model domains
Previous Works and Some Results :Near Real-Time Downscaling Experiments (2)
NOAA
Dept. Inf. ScienceKochi University
Space Science and Engineering Center(SSEC) University of Wisconsin
Block A :Internet Resources
Dept. Atm. Sci. University of Wyoming
GFS Data
SondeData
MTSAT IR mages
MTSAT/GOESlatest images
Block B :Download Server
Regional model Preprocessing(if data is adequate)
Daily rainfall estimation
Model runup to 48-hour lead time prediction
Topgraphyand land-use data (fixed)
Post processing of regional model output
-Monitoring-Prediction -Nowcasting-Forcast Verification
Block D : Web Server
Postprocess
Block C : PC Cluster
??
Previous Works and Some Results :Near Real-Time Downscaling Experiments (3)
MM5 modeling system :Non-hydrostaticPrimitive equationsDeveloped by PSU/NCARFree software Parallel version with MPIModel Setup
- boundary-layer parameterization : MRF
- cumulus parameterization :Grell (30 km) & KF (10 km)
Downscaling without additional
input except refinement of tropography
Previous Works and Some Results :Near Real-Time Downscaling Experiments (4)
1200 UTC
0000 UTCThe system hasrecently beenupgraded resulting in reduced latency
NCEP-GFS Forecast Run at 1200 UTC
Download Time
2100 UTC
MM5 Forcast Run
1200 UTC
MM5 Regional Prediction effective forecast lead time
Data downloaded at 6 hr fcst interval
PC Cluster assembledinhouse : 8 nodesAMD Athlon 64;10 GB total memory4 TB total data storage
Previous Works and Some Results :Near Real-Time Downscaling Experiments (5)http://weather.geoph.itb.ac.id/
Previous Works and Some Results :Near Real-Time Downscaling Experiments (6)
pure downscaling
not much improvementin average error
Previous Works and Some Results :A Numerical Study of Strong Convective System (1)
Pwat (kg/m2)
TBB (K)
Synoptic scale conditionrelated to Jakarta flood event of Jan/Feb 2002
• Southward migrationof monsoon trough
• Appearance of cyclonicvortex over the Indian Oceansouth-west of Jakarta
Data : NCEP global tropospheric analysis and GMS IR imageries(daily averaged TBB)
Northern coastal plain of Java Island is prone to heavy rainfall during end of Jan.-beginning of Feb.
Previous Works and Some Results :A Numerical Study of Strong Convective System (2)
Rc (mm)
• MM5 daily accumulated rainfall
• 3 km horizontal resolution
• NCEP-FNL initial and boundary condition
Concentration of heavy rainfall over Jakarta area
Previous Works and Some Results :A Numerical Study of Strong Convective System (3)
TBB (K)
From Edvin Aldrian (BPPT), Courtesy of BMG
Characterized by North-Southmovement of convectivesystem
Previous Works and Some Results :A Numerical Study of Strong Convective System (4)
Clw (g/kg)
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Convectivemechanism :
cold pooladvection
Previous Works and Some Results :A Numerical Study of Strong Convective System (4)
Clw (g/kg)
Convectivemechanism :
mixed layerblocking
Previous Works and Some Results :Anticipated Problems in NWP Application
• Model accuracy High resolution simulation using NWP model hasrevealed a detailed structure of the convective systemrelated to heavy rainfall events but downscaling alonedoes not seem to significantly improve average forecast error local data assimilation
• Model uncertaintyModel uncertainty is an inherent problem of atmospheric predictability quantification by meansof (multi-model) ensemble forecasting learning from other projects, model intercomparisons is an important step
Current Works :Mesoscale NWP Intercomparison (1)
JMA
CMA
MSC
ZAMG
NCEP
CMAS
BRDP08, Courtesy of Dr. Hiromu Seko (MRI-JMA)
Current Works :Mesoscale NWP Intercomparison (2)
Improvement of Computational Infrastructure
The same look and number of nodes but now with :
• Processor : Intel Core2 Quad Core(2.4 GHz) per node (32 cores in total)
• 32 GB of total memory• OS : Open SuSE 10.2 (free version)
PC Cluster assembled inhouse : • 8 nodes (1 master and 7 diskless nodes)
• Processor : single AMD Athlon (2.0 GHz) per node
• 10 GB total memory• OS : SLES 9.0
MM5 and WRF test runs show that Hybrid SMP-MPI system reduce computational time by a factor of 4 to 6
Current Works :Mesoscale NWP Intercomparison (3)
MM5-WRF output samples
• Apart from accuracies, MM5 andWRF produced quite results at 30 km resolution downscaling
• WRF accumulated rainfall is morecharacterized wih small scale features
Current Works :Mesoscale NWP Intercomparison (4)
WRF 3km simulation of heavy rainfall
WRFMM5
Rc (mm)
Current Works :Mesoscale NWP Intercomparison (5)
WRF with cumulus parameterization WRF explicit
• Convection initiated at the top of PBL• Gravity-wave induced convection (?)• Sensitivity to cumulus parameterization at 3 km resolution
Current Works :Another Study of Strong Convective System (1)
http://foto.okezone.com/
0104 07
Floods in Karawang :• Long duration of inundation (more than 10 days)
• Relatively large area• Seems to be triggered by rainfall event of Feb. 6, 2008
• Less effect of topography(?)
Current Works :Another Study of Strong Convective System (2)
2008/02/06 21:06 2008/02/06 22:062008/02/06 19:06 2008/02/06 20:06
2008/02/07 00:062008/02/06 22:30 2008/02/06 23:06 2008/02/06 23:30
2008/02/07 00:30 C-band Radar Images Courtesy of HARIMAU Project(JAMSTEC-BPPT)
Eastward moving convective cells along the coastal plain
Current Works :Another Study of Strong Convective System (3)
30-hour forecast of 3-hourly convective rainfall (07/02/2008 0100 LT)
MM5 WRF
• New resolution set-up 27-9-3 km nesting (2 online and 1 off-line) • Another type of blocking (land-breeze?) • Too strong blocking in WRF• WRF requires more parameter tuning
Future Plans : Three-model Intercomparisons with JMA-NHM
06 February 2008, JMA-NHM test run 24 and 30 hour forecast of 3-hourly precipitation, 27 km resolution
JMA-NHM has been installed and being tested to run donwscaling forecast with NCEP-GFS data
Future Plans : Coal Mines at Berau as Forecast Test Ground
• Partial funding by PT. Berau Coal
• Installation of 6-7 AWS
• Near real time data transfer to ITB
• Experiments on local data assimilation
• Decision support system in mining opration as apart of research activities
Future Plans : C-Band Radar and GPS/Met over West Java
• Another high-resolutionsimulation and forecast test ground
• Relatively dense GPSnetwork as part of INATEWS
• High possibility to obtain near real-time GPS/Metdata through collaborationwith BAKOSURTANAL (National Survery and MappingAgency)
• More powerful if combined withC-band radar at Serpong through collaboration with JAMSTEC
Courtesy of Cecep Subarya (BAKOSURTANAL)
Concluding Remarks
• Capacity building We have developed an entry-level computational infrastructure to conduct NWP research in SEA(The Maritime Continent of Indonesia). We are setting upan environment for model intercomparison
• Near-real time downscaling experimentsMM5-WRF intercomparison shows that WRF requiresmore model parameter tuning in the tropics
• Process study Strong convections related to heavy rainfall involve complex mechanisms
• Future plan We are trying to setup two ground tests for model intercomparison (Berau and Jakarta)