MENYIKAPI KRISIS EKONOMI GLOBAL - Biro Perencanaan Kementerian
79
MENYIKAPI MENYIKAPI MENYIKAPI MENYIKAPI KRISIS EKONOMI GLOBAL KRISIS EKONOMI GLOBAL Faisal Basri Faisal Basri 18 Februari 2009 18 Februari 2009
Transcript of MENYIKAPI KRISIS EKONOMI GLOBAL - Biro Perencanaan Kementerian
MENYIKAPIMENYIKAPIMENYIKAPIMENYIKAPIKRISIS EKONOMI GLOBALKRISIS EKONOMI GLOBAL
Faisal BasriFaisal Basri18 Februari 200918 Februari 2009
ProyeksiProyeksi pertumbuhanpertumbuhan tahuntahun 20020099 terusterusterkoreksiterkoreksi tajamtajamterkoreksiterkoreksi tajamtajam
Description Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Jan 09Description Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Jan 09
World GDP growth, % 3.8 3.9 3.0 2.2 0.5
-United States 0.6 0.8 0.1 -0.7 -1.6
-Euro Area 1.2 1.2 0.2 -0.5 -2.0
-Japan 1.5 1.5 0.5 -0.2 -2.6
-Developing economies 6.6 6.7 6.1 5.1 3.3
-China 9.5 9.8 9.3 8.5 6.7
-Asean-5 6.0 5.6 5.5 4.5 2.7Asean 5 6.0 5.6 5.5 4.5 2.7
World trade growth, % 5.8 6.0 4.1 2.0 -2.8Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues.
Industrial production
Pertumbuhan industri menengah dan besar di Indonesia pada triwulan IV dibandingkan d t i l III t h 2008 d l h 3 4 dengan triwulan III tahun 2008 adalah -3,4 persen (Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik, 2 Februari 2009).
Source: Economist, January 17th, 2009: 11-12.
Oil prices Oil prices dropped to below dropped to below $$440 a barrel0 a barrelCrude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) March, 2009
2:44 p.m. EDT
US$34.80 =
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134j y $Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150
• Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.
Oil prices and stock marketOil prices and stock market
(at close) = 7,552.60
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
BagianBagian IIPusatPusat GempaGempa dandan KemakmuranKemakmuran SemuSemuPusatPusat GempaGempa dandan KemakmuranKemakmuran SemuSemu
The end of the affair …U.S.A.: a nation of borrowers and spenders, not savers
Personal savings as a percentage of dipsosablepercentage of dipsosableincome:
1997 = 8.7%2007 = 0 6%2007 = 0.6%
Over-the-counter derivatives: BIS-data(billions US dollars)
6 0 0 0 0 0
7 0 0 ,0 0 0
D E R IVAT IVE S T O T AL
4 0 0 0 0 0
5 0 0 ,0 0 0
6 0 0 ,0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 ,0 0 0
4 0 0 ,0 0 0
0
1 0 0 ,0 0 0
2 0 0 ,0 0 0
09 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7
OTC credit default swaps (BIS data)(billions US dollars)
6 0 , 0 0 0
C D S
4 0 , 0 0 0
5 0 , 0 0 0Enormous increase
2 0 , 0 0 0
3 0 , 0 0 0
No data available
0
1 0 , 0 0 0
9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7
available
Widening gap: Forex trading & merchandise trade
Alternative attractions
THREE BEARS:THREE BEARS: the past century’s worst market slumpsmarket slumps
Source: Wall Sreet Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122359593027021243.html.
… Recession is comingA Record Decline in October’s Retail Sales in the last 16 years. Th i i d f ll 1 7 t i The consumer price index fell 1.7 percent in November, the steepest monthly drop since the government began tracking prices in 1947 (The New York Times, December 16, 2008).New York Times, December 16, 2008).Downturn Drags More Consumers Into Bankruptcy—The economy’s deep troubles are pushing a growing number of already struggling p g g g y gg gconsumers into bankruptcy .., often with far more debt than those who filed in previous downturns.Jobless claim hit 7-year highTech Companies, Long Insulated, Now Feel Slump—In the span of just a few weeks, orders for both business and consumer tech products have collapsed and technology companies have have collapsed, and technology companies have begun laying off workers (nytimes.com, November 15, 2008).
Magnitude kian menggelembung
“Bailout Plan: $2.5 Trillion and a Strong U S Hand”and a Strong U.S. HandNYTimes, Published: February 10, 2009
The White House plan to rescue the nation’s financial system is far bigger than anyone predicted and system, ... is far bigger than anyone predicted and envisions a far greater government role in markets and banks than at any time since the 1930s.http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/11/business/economy/11bailout.html?_r=1&8au&emc=au
“To date, the U.S. government has committed, on behalf of taxpayers, more than $7 trillion taxpayers, more than $7 trillion of capital injections and guarantees to financial institutions.”st tut o sSource: Wall Sreet Journal, February 12, 2009http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123436943967173465.html, downloaded on February 12, 2009.
Off the deep end
Total annual deficit or surplus as a share of GDP
Source: Wall Street Journal http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123440436240475615.html, downloaded on February 12, 2009.
Deepening pain: job losses pile upU.S. Economy Shed 598,000 Jobs in January 2009
Source: Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123392627601156735.html?mod=article-outset-box), downloaded on February 07, 2009.
Kepercayaan konsumen AS turun tajam
100
120US- Indeks Kepercayaan Konsumen
Indeks kepercayaan
60
80
Indeks kepercayaan konsumen adalah salah leading economic indicator
20
40
2005 2006 2007 2008
economic indicatorbagi perekonomian.Meskipun di AS
b ik d b l membaik pada bulan November 2008, namun setelah itu IKK k l i k IKK masuk lagi ke tren yang menurun. Source: Danareksa Research Institute, Januari 2009 dan BPS Februari 2009Januari 2009. dan BPS, Februari 2009
U.S. Stock market lost
Source: Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122346026975114825.html (October 10, 2008, 1:00 p.m.
Bailout plan
Bailout Fails to Stem Global Stock Slump
Source: Ihttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/business/18markets.html?_r=1&8au&emc=au&oref=slogin
Lebih ideologis
February 16, 2009
We Are All Socialists NowCOVER STORY
The financial crisis is spreading rapidly .... to the previously resilient developing world:
Global trade is forecast to shrink in 2009 for the first time Global trade is forecast to shrink in 2009 for the first time since 1982. Foreign investment and short-term credit are drying up.Developing country exports are falling; large amounts of capital have been withdrawn.M d l i t i f h l ti ht dit d Many developing countries face sharply tighter credit and higher interest rates.GDP growth in developing countries is expected to fall to GDP growth in developing countries is expected to fall to 4.5% from a projected 6.4%.Private capital flows are expected to drop from $1 trillion in 2007 to $530 billion in 20092007 to $530 billion in 2009.
(World Bank, November 2008)
Stimulus jangan sampai garami laut
How much help government think the economy needs, then add 50 percent. It's much better, in a depressed economy, to err on the side of too much stimulus than on the side of too little.
--Paul Krugman, November 2008
All out plan by other countries
China pledges $586 bil. (15% of GDP) to offset China pledges $586 bil. (15% of GDP) to offset slowing growth (economic stimulus plan)Other fiscal measures in East Asia since Sept Other fiscal measures in East Asia since Sept. 2008:
Malaysia $2 bil (1% of GDP)Malaysia $2 bil. (1% of GDP)Thailand $2.86 bil. (1% of GDP)Korea $11 bil. (1% of GDP)
EU got together to support their banking systems with a coordinated €1.5 trillion bailout.with a coordinated €1.5 trillion bailout.
China: Program details
Road and railroad constructionLow-income housingRural infrastructureWaterElectricityTransportationTransportationEnvironmentTechnological innovationTechnological innovationEarthquake reconstructionReform of VATEstablishment of social safety net
Goncangan dahsyatGoncangan dahsyat
February 10, 2009
’This is the worst recession for over 100 years' By Nigel Morris, Deputy Political Editor, and Sean O'Grady, Economics Editor
Britain is facing its worst financial crisis for more than a century Britain is facing its worst financial crisis for more than a century, surpassing even the Great Depression of the 1930s, one of Gordon Brown's most senior ministers and confidants has admitted.
d d b h f hIn an extraordinary admission about the severity of the economic downturn, Ed Balls even predicted that its effects would still be felt 15 years from now.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be LongRay Dalio, Chief Investment Officer, Bridgewater Associates
Pemulihan butuh waktu lama?“Consensus melts as the crisis heats up”FT com Published: January 27 2009 18:12 | Last FT.com. Published: January 27 2009 18:12 | Last updated: January 27 2009 18:12http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6bde8788-ec75-11dd-a534-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=70261da4-eb4b-11dd-bb6e-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
“THE RETURN OF ECONOMIC NATIONALISM”fromThe Economist print edition Feb 5th 2009fromThe Economist print edition Feb 5th 2009http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13061443&fsrc=nwlgafree&source=most_commented
“Buy American” clauses “AS TAK MAU BERSIHKAN CEPAT-CEPAT TOXIC ASSETS: There is no lack of capital in
America today, or in the world beyond it. Mr. Geithner can make it flow again, if
Buy American clauses
he only looks to Seoul's example for how to do it.Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123436943967173465.html#printMode
BagianBagian IIIIPerekonomianPerekonomian IndonesiaIndonesiakk
Transmission of global economic and financial crisis to Indonesia
Balance of Payments
financial crisis to Indonesia
Global economic slow down (shrinking global trade)
Gl b l E i
Balance of Payments Problems
g )Declining trend of commodity pricesFinancial distress and global credit crunchClassical problem of Emerging Markets:
Slower global growth declining commodity prices export slow down deteriorating
Global Economic&
Financial Crisis
Indonesia Economy
prices export slow down deteriorating CA balance Depreciating currency
Financial Markets Channels
Collapse of financial instit tions in
Credit crunch, Bail out and liq idit
Risk aversion capital outflows from Emerging
Financing and Liquidity Problems in
Financial Sector Instabilit ininstitutions in
the USliquidity drying up
from Emerging Markets
Problems in Emerging Mkt
Instability in Emerging Mkt
Sumber daya tahan
Perekonomian Indonesia dan sektor keuangannya tak terkait erat dengan sektor finansial ASterkait erat dengan sektor finansial AS.Harga minyak turun ke level di bawah $40 per barrel.Current account masih surplus walau menyusutCurrent account masih surplus, walau menyusut.Peranan ekspor di dalam PDB relatif kecil.Porsi ekspor Indonesia ke AS Eropa dan Jepang sudah Porsi ekspor Indonesia ke AS, Eropa, dan Jepang sudah menunjukkan penurunan; bergeser ke EM dan Asean.Sektor perbankan sudah cukup terkonsolidasi. Indikator p pkesehatan perbankan (ROA, ROE, NIM, CAR) di atas rata-rata negara tetangga, bahkan bisa dikatakan yang terbaik, kecuali LDR. (warning: bank BUMN!!!)terbaik, kecuali LDR. (warning: bank BUMN!!!)Ketahanan pangan terjaga.
East Asia entered the current crisis East Asia entered the current crisis better prepared than it did the 1997 crisisbetter prepared than it did the 1997 crisisbetter prepared than it did the 1997 crisisbetter prepared than it did the 1997 crisis
(in percent of GDP unless indicated otherwise)
Source: The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Update, East Asia: Navigating the Perfect Storm, December 2008.
Countries more dependent on exports will Countries more dependent on exports will likely be more vulnerable to the slowdownlikely be more vulnerable to the slowdownlikely be more vulnerable to the slowdownlikely be more vulnerable to the slowdown
Source: The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Update, East Asia: Navigating the Perfect Storm, December 2008.
Economic temperature Economic temperature coolercooler ....Inflation returns 2 digit, y-o-y, %
18 38
16
1818.38
14 55
December 2008 closed the year with a monthly drop (deflation)of 0.04% in consumer prices,
12
14
10.60
14.55and continued in Jan 2009 with deflation of 0.07%.
8
10
7.20
8.819.17
4
6
Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov
5.794.60 5.27
J No Ma J No Ma J No Ma J No Ma J No Ma J No Ma J No
2002 2003 2004Source: BPS.
2005 2006 2007 2008
BI Rate BI Rate bisabisa turunturun lagilagi??
13,0
11,5
12,0
12,5
9 5
10,0
10,5
11,0
8,0
8,5
9,0
9,5
7,0
7,5
,
05-Ju
l
01-N
op
07-M
ar
06-Ju
l
07-N
op
06-M
ar
05-Ju
l
06-N
op
06-M
ar
03-Ju
l
Nov
0 01 0 0 07 0 0 06 0 0
Source: Bank Indonesia.
Apakah landasan ekonomi kita sangat kokoh?
Indonesia Korban Tidak Bersalah(Kompas Kamis 20 November 2008)(Kompas, Kamis, 20 November 2008)
Indonesia berada di urutan teratas dalam daftar korban krisis yang tidak bersalah dalam gejolak ekonomi dunia saat ini Oleh karena tidak bersalah dalam gejolak ekonomi dunia saat ini. Oleh karena itu, Indonesia meminta perhatian dunia untuk mendapat prioritas pertama sebagai negara yang perlu diselamatkan dari kemungkinan terburuk akibat krisis.
”Dalam krisis ini, negara yang bagus, mengelola keuangannya dengan baik, dan memiliki institusi ekonomi yang sehat serta kredibel tetap bisa terkena dampak negatif. Itu tidak fair (adil). Ini yang disebut innocent victim (korban yang tidak bersalah),” ujar Menteri Keuangan sekaligus Pelaksana Jabatan Menko Perekonomian Sri Mulyani Indrawati seusai Rapat Koordinasi Perekonomian Sri Mulyani Indrawati seusai Rapat Koordinasi Terbatas dengan Gubernur Bank Indonesia Boediono, Rabu (19/11) di Jakarta.
Siapkan kondisi terburukKrisis finansial global menyadarkan kita tentang rapuhnya tatanan yang ada muncul tuntutan untuk
l i fi i l l b l d i k i penataan ulang sistem finansial global dan interaksi hubungan ekonomi antarbangsa.P k i kit j t d h k l Perekonomian kita justru cenderung mengarah ke pola AS yang rapuh itu. Tentu konsekuensinya bisa lebih parah karena kita tak punya kemewahan untuk
j b l h b i di l i ASmenjawab masalah sebagaimana yg dialami AS.Perubahan pola pikir yang mendasar agar landasan perekonomian nasional lebih kokoh:perekonomian nasional lebih kokoh:
Mencapai tujuan secara efektifL bih t bil t l tilit b kLebih stabil atau volatilitas berkurangMemenuhi rasa keadilan.
Persoalan likuiditas
Sekalipun BI rate sudah urun, bunga deposito d i j t k k t jik dan pinjaman tak akan turun segera jika persoalan likuiditas tak membaik.P b b lik idit k t t di I d iPenyebab likuiditas ketat di Indonesia:
Pemerintah tarik dana banyak, tapi spending lamban.Intervensi BI untuk jaga Rupiah Jan-Sep US$16 miliar.Pertumbuhan kredit pada Agustus 08 naik tinggi ke 35% y-o-y (atau 20% ytd); sedangkan pertumbuhan dana masyarakat turun ke 9 6% y o y (atau 1 0% dana masyarakat turun ke 9,6% y-o-y (atau 1,0% ytd).
Pemerintah menguras likuiditas
percentRp Trn
200
250
12
14
Rekening Pemerintah di BIInter Bank Rate
1508
10BI Rate
100
4
6
0
50
0
2
02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0
Source: Danareksa Research Institute, January 2009.
Heart beat has been increasing Heart beat has been increasing ……pr ul ep es eb ei ul ep es eb ei ul kt es ar ei gu
st
kt an ar un gust
op 21
(Rupiah per US$)
8.500
9.000
08-A
p
09-J
u
23-S
e
09-D
e
22-F
e
09-M
e
19-J
u
29-S
e
15-D
e
27-F
e
11-M
e
24-J
u
05-O
k
22-D
e
07-M
a
22-M
e
01-A
g
11-O
k
08-J
a
26-M
a
06-J
u
19-A
g
04-N
o
Jan-
2
9.500
10.000
10.500
11.000
11.500
12.000000
12.500Source: Bank Indonesia
Tapi, likuiditas menuju normal ..
Bank Indonesia melakukan beberapa policy t l i l l i P i Gi measures antara lain melalui Penyesuaian Giro
Wajib Minimum Bank menambah likuiditas k b ti cukup berarti.
Sejak September 2008, pertumbuhan DPK j p , pmelampaui pertumbuhan kredit.Masalah kunci terletak pada aliran dari Masalah kunci terletak pada aliran dari likuiditas pemecahan paling efektif adalah dengan penjaminan (penuh?) pinjaman dengan penjaminan (penuh?) pinjaman antarbank.
Foreign reserves decreased by $6.5 Foreign reserves decreased by $6.5 bilbil..
60000,00
SBY
(US$ million)
55000,00
SBY era
45000,00
50000,00
35000 00
40000,00
30000,00
35000,00
W1-JaW2-FeW3-M
aW4-ApW1-Jn
W2-JlW3-Ag4-Sep1-Nov2-Dec3-Ja
n4-Feb1-Apr2-M
ay3-Ju
nW4-Ju
l1-SepW2-O
ct3-Nov4-Dec2-AprAgus
t1-J
an9-J
unAgus
t5-O
kt5-N
op9-D
es1-J
an6-M
ar5-A
pr3-M
ei0-J
unAgus
t5-S
ep4-O
kt
W1W2W3 W4 W1 W W3W4-SW1-W2-W3W4-W1-W2-MW3-
W4W1-S
W2W3-W4-W2-
31-A
g 31 29-
31-A
g 05 15-N
19-D 31 06-M 15-
23-
30-
07-A
g15
-S 24
Source: Bank Indonesia.
External vulnerability: regional comparison – economic perception
Too big, too high
economic perception
Bloomberg commodity price index
Should Should be here
Source: CITI’s Asia Macro Views, “Measuring Asia’s External Vulnerability,” 8 October 2008
JSX index dropped significantlyJSX index dropped significantly
2.8002.900
Business Week, 14-21 Maret 2007, hal.18.
(Jakarta composite index)
2.2002.3002.4002.5002.6002.700 (Jakarta composite index)
1 6001.7001.8001.9002.0002.100
1.1001.2001.3001.4001.5001.600
800900
1.000
22-O
kt
28-D
es
02-M
ar
04-M
ei
05-J
ul
05-S
ep
09-N
op
09-J
an
10-M
ar
15-M
ei
14-J
ul
15-S
ep
21-N
op
23-J
an
23-M
ar
25-M
ei
25-J
ul
24-S
ep
26-N
op
04-F
eb
09-A
pr
10-J
un
08-A
gust
16-O
kt
Dec-
16
Kunci penyelesaian
Bursa masih tersandera oleh saham-saham Bakrie Group.T kk t i d k dibilit bTegakkan transparansi dan kredibilitas bursa.Lindungi pemegang saham minoritas.P lihk b b lt tif i t i bi k i Pulihkan bursa sbg alternatif investasi bisa kurangi tekanan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah
Sekarang Bakrie, lalu Bukaka dan Bosowa…Wapres: Kelangsungan Hidup Bakrie Perlu Dijagaj g
Kompas.com, Jumat, 14 November 2008 | 13:35 WIB
"Pemerintah berkewajiban menjaga k l hid h i l B k kelangsungan hidup pengusaha nasional. Bukan hanya Bakrie, tetapi siapa saja supaya usahanya tetap berjalan," ujar Wapres dalam jumpa pers usai shalat Jumat di Istana Wapres, ju pa pe s usa s a at Ju at d sta a ap es,Jakarta, (14/11).
Dengan pemikiran seperti itu, pembelaan pemerintah kepada Bakrie masih dalam kategori wajar. Pemerintah sebelumnya Bakrie masih dalam kategori wajar. Pemerintah sebelumnya juga membela pengusaha lain seperti Astra, Danamon, BCA, sejumlah bank lain, dan sejumlah konglomerat. "Masakanmembantu Bakrie tidak boleh," ujarnya.
http://www.kompas.com/read/xml/2008/11/14/13352853/Wapres.Kelangsungan.Hidup.Bakrie.Perlu.Dijaga
Indonesia: direct investmentIndonesia: direct investmentYear Abroad In Indonesia Net1997 4 677 4 6771997 ‐ 4,677 4,6771998 ‐ ‐241 ‐2411999 ‐ ‐1,865 ‐1,8652000 ‐ ‐4,551 ‐4,5512001 ‐ ‐2,977 ‐2,9772002 ‐ 145 1452002 145 1452003 ‐ ‐597 ‐5972004 ‐3,408 1,896 ‐1,5122005 3 065 8 336 5 2712005 ‐3,065 8,336 5,2712006 ‐2,703 4,914 2,2112007 ‐4,790 6,928 2,139
* First semesterSource: Bank Indonesia.
2008* ‐3,640 5,704 2,064
The role of FDI in Asia & South America, 2006The role of FDI in Asia & South America, 2006FDI flows to GFCF FDI stocks to GDP
Country PercentVenezuela -2.1Bangladesh 3.9Sri Lanka 6.2
Country PercentIndonesia 5.2India 5.7Bangladesh 6.3
Indonesia 6.4China 8.0India 8.7Argentina 9.6
Sri Lanka 10.9China 11.1Pakistan 11.4Taiwan 14.2
Taiwan 10.3Brazil 10.5Vietnam 12.5Philippines 14.1
Philippines 14.6Peru 20.7Brazil 20.8Venezuela 25.0
Thailand 16.5Peru 18.9Bolivia 19.5Malaysia 20.1
Argentina 27.4Thailand 33.0Malaysia 36.0Ecuador 39.9
Pakistan 24.1Ecuador 24.8Chile 28.3Cambodia 38.9
Cambodia 41.6Bolivia 44.6Vietnam 54.8Chile 55.4S 1 9 0
Notes: FDI = Foreign Direct Investment (inward); GFCF = Gross Fixed Capital Formation; GDP = Gross Domestic Product. Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.
Singapore 79.5Asia 12.9South America 13.1
Singapore 159.0Asia 24.9South America 26.0
Balance of paymentsBalance of payments2007 2008* Q1‐08 Q2‐08 Q3‐08
I. CURRENT ACCOUNT 10,401 796 2,601 ‐1,241 ‐564
A. Goods, net (Trade Balance) 32,754 18,759 7,536 5,443 5,780
1. Exports, f.o.b. 118,014 109,837 34,412 37,345 38,080
2. Imports, f.o.b. ‐85,260 ‐91,077 ‐26,876 ‐31,902 ‐32,299
B. Services, net ‐11,797 ‐10,310 ‐3,173 ‐3,564 ‐3,573
C. Income, net ‐15,524 ‐11,740 ‐3,120 ‐4,463 ‐4,157
D. Current Transfers, net 4,968 4,086 1,358 1,343 1,385
II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT 3,322 1,485 ‐1,623 2,599 509
A. Capital Account 546 325 52 73 200
B. Financial Account 2,776 1,161 ‐1,674 2,526 309
1. Direct investment 2,139 ‐506 ‐633 40 87
2. Portfolio investment 5,523 6,173 1,923 4,308 ‐58
3. Other investment ‐4,885 ‐4,506 ‐2,964 ‐1,822 280
* January-September. Source: Bank Indonesia.
III. ERRORS & OMISSIONS ‐1,008 ‐13 54 ‐33 ‐34
IV. RESERVES &RELATED ITEMS ‐12,715 ‐2,267 ‐1,032 ‐1,324 89
Indonesia’s postIndonesia’s post--crisis journeycrisis journey
5
7 6.6
Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
4.7 5.2
6.5
1
13
-5
-3
-1
Q1-98
Q3-98
Q1-99
Q3-99
Q1-00
Q3-00
Q1-01
Q3-01
Q1-02
Q3-02
Q1-03
Q3-03
Q1-04
Q3-04
Q1-05
Q3-05
Q1-06
Q3-06
Q1-07
Q3-07
Q1-08
Q3-08
-11
-9-7 Gus Dur:
“Erratic/shaky”
Megawati:
-17-15
-13 Consolidation and acceleration
SBY: Throws awayMomentum and then made
-21
-19
17
Source: BPS.
Crisis peak
Momentum, and then made correction
Low quality Low quality —— Sectoral growth rateSectoral growth rate(2000 base year year(2000 base year year--onon--year growth rate %)year growth rate %)(2000 base year, year(2000 base year, year onon year growth rate, %)year growth rate, %)
2006 2007 2008 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08Tradable 3.7 3.8 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.2 2.6
Agriculture 3.0 3.5 4.8 6.0 4.6 2.4 4.7Mining & Quarrying 2.2 2.0 0.5 -2.3 -0.9 1.6 2.1Mining & Quarrying 2.2 2.0 0.5 2.3 0.9 1.6 2.1Manufacturing 4.6 4.7 3.7 4.3 4.1 4.3 1.8
Non-Tradable 7.4 9.0 9.2 9.5 10.1 9.5 8.1Electricity, Gas & Water 5.9 10.4 10.9 12.1 11.2 10.6 9.3Construction 9.0 8.6 7.3 8.3 8.0 7.5 5.7Trade, Hotel & Rest. 6.1 8.5 7.2 7.2 7.9 7.6 5.6,Transport & Comm. 13.6 14.4 16.7 19.7 19.6 17.1 15.8Finance 5.7 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.7 8.5 7.4S i 6 2 6 6 6 4 5 7 6 5 6 7 6 0Services 6.2 6.6 6.4 5.7 6.5 6.7 6.0
GDP 5.5 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.1 5.2Source: BPS.
Low quality Low quality growth, 2000growth, 2000--2008 2008 (%)(%)
8
10
6
2
4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Tradable Non-tradable GDP
* Jan-Sep (until 3rd quarter).Source: BPS.
Foreign merchandise trade: price effectsForeign merchandise trade: price effects
Billion US$ Growth (yoy)Price increases dominated of the growth in non-oil exports.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008
Billion US$ Growth (yoy)Description
Total export 85.7 100.8 114.1 136.8 17.7 13.1 19.9
Non-oil and gas 66.4 79.6 92.0 107.8 19.8 15.5 78.8
Oil and gas 19.2 21.2 22.1 29.0 10.3 4.1 21.2
Total import* 57.7 61.1 74.5 105.1 5.8 21.9 41.1
Non-oil and gas 40.2 42.1 52.5 74.8 4.6 24.8 42.4
Oil and gas 17 5 19 0 21 9 30 3 8 6 15 5 38 0Oil and gas 17.5 19.0 21.9 30.3 8.6 15.5 38.0* Excl free trade zones.Source: BPS.
Trade balance of oil and oil productsTrade balance of oil and oil products2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Crude OilCrude OilExports 5,228 5,621 6,241 8,146 8,169 9,226 12,419Imports 3,217 3,928 5,831 6,797 7,853 9,057 10,044(X - M) 2,011 1,694 410 1,349 316 169 2,375
Oil ProductsExports 1 308 1 548 1 654 1 932 2 844 2 879 3 379Exports 1,308 1,548 1,654 1,932 2,844 2,879 3,379Imports 3,309 3,583 5,892 10,646 11,080 12,787 20,165(X - M) -2,001 -2,035 -4,238 -8,714 -8,236 -9,908 -16,786
TotalExports 6,535 7,169 7,896 10,078 11,013 12,105 15,798Imports 6 526 7 510 11 724 17 443 18 933 21 844 30 209Imports 6,526 7,510 11,724 17,443 18,933 21,844 30,209(X - M) 10 -342 -3,828 -7,365 -7,920 -9,739 -14,411
Source: BPS.
Trade balance of oil and gasTrade balance of oil and gas15000
US$ million
5000
10000
0
-10000
-5000
-15000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Oil & oil products Gas Oil & gas
Part IIIPart IIIPart IIIPart IIILINGKUNGAN POLITIK DAN LINGKUNGAN POLITIK DAN
KECENDERUNGKECENDERUNGAAN JELANG PEMILUN JELANG PEMILUKECENDERUNGKECENDERUNGAAN JELANG PEMILUN JELANG PEMILU
KecenderunganKecenderungan umumumumDua kali pemilu pascareformasi berlangsung sangat damai.gMasih ada euphoria demokrasi sejalan dengan proses konsolidasi demokrasi, utamanya
t k l bpenguatan kelembagaan.Tidak terjadi kristalisasi kutub-kutub ekstrem, baik ki i k k i id l i t kiri maupun kanan konvergensi ideologi atau, bahkan, non-ideologis.P kti t k t j di b h i Y k Praktis tak terjadi perubahan rezim. Yang sekarang bercokol adalah pentolan-pentolan Orde Baru: Presiden, Wapres, Ketua DPR, Ketua DPD, Menko Presiden, Wapres, Ketua DPR, Ketua DPD, Menko Kesra kompromistik.
Krisis ekonomi dan politik?
Dampak krisis keuangan global bakal muncul pada tahun 2009 jika pemerintah tidak melakukan antisipasi sejak sekarang Bahkan pemerintah tidak melakukan antisipasi sejak sekarang. Bahkan, krisis yang menimpa Indonesia tahun 2009 akan lebih berat dibandingkan dengan krisis ekonomi di Asia tahun 1998.Demikian dikatakan Ketua Dewan Perwakilan Daerah Ginandjar Kartasasmita dalam Silaturahmi Kerja Nasional Ikatan Cendekiawan Muslim Indonesia Sabtu (13/12) di Palembang Cendekiawan Muslim Indonesia, Sabtu (13/12) di Palembang, Sumatera Selatan.Ginandjar mengungkapkan, tahun 2009 Indonesia bisa mengalami dua krisis sekaligus, yaitu krisis ekonomi dan politik, seperti tahun 1998. Pada tahun 2009 akan dilaksanakan pemilu dan tidak ada yang menjamin bahwa stabilitas politik akan lebih baikada yang menjamin bahwa stabilitas politik akan lebih baik.(“Dampak Krisis Akan Muncul Tahun 2009,” Kompas, Minggu, 14 Desember , hal.1 dan 15.)
EkonomiEkonomi dandan siklussiklus politikpolitikPenguasa yang hendak bertarung kembali untuk masa jabatan kedua akan makin peduli dengan j p gkinerja ekonomi yang langsung dirasakan masyarakat banyak kebijakan-kebijakan populispopulis.Alokasi anggaran untuk publik meningkat.P liti i t t k t t h d i fl i t t Politisi sangat takut terhadap inflasi, terutama menjelang pemilu. Mereka akan berusaha keras menekan inflasi harga BBM tak dinaikkan harga menekan inflasi harga BBM tak dinaikkan, harga obat dipatok, redam kenaikan harga pangan dengan pemotongan pajak, bea masuk, dan
b i b idipemberian subsidi.
ManajemenManajemen perekonomianperekonomian
Tim inti yang bertanggung jawab atas makro-ekonomi seluruhnya teknokrat nonpartai dan ekonomi seluruhnya teknokrat nonpartai dan berkarakter konservatif.Mereka tak akan berkampanye secara terselubung Mereka tak akan berkampanye secara terselubung, apalagi terang-terangan.Akan jadi kekuatan peredam/pengerem pendulum Akan jadi kekuatan peredam/pengerem pendulum politik ke arah destruktif.Integritas mereka teruji; they can say no to the boss.g j ; y yPengalaman Pemilu 2004?Makin banyak rambu dan kekuatan pengimbang Makin banyak rambu dan kekuatan pengimbang (checks and balances)
PerbaikanPerbaikan alamiahalamiah
Tak ada perbedaan mndasar antar partai dan antarkandidat presiden lagi lagi faktornya antarkandidat presiden lagi-lagi faktornya nonideologis.Calon-calon presiden dari generasi lama yang sulit Calon-calon presiden dari generasi lama yang sulit diajak dengan mindset baru.Tapi siapa pun yang berkuasa tentu ingin lebih baik Tapi, siapa pun yang berkuasa, tentu ingin lebih baik dari pendahulunya.Jadi jangan terlalu pusingkan siapa pemenang Jadi jangan terlalu pusingkan siapa pemenang pemilu.Harapan lebih pada 2014.Harapan lebih pada 2014.
PenciutanPenciutan jumlahjumlah partaipartai
Jumlah partai di DPR akan menciut dengan pemberlakuan parliamentary threshold 2,5 persen.Berdasarkan hasil pemilu 2004 hanya ada 8 partai.partai.Pengelompokan antara partai berkuasa dan partai oposisi akan lebih tegaspartai oposisi akan lebih tegas.Bisa menghasilkan pemerintahan dan checks & balances yang lebih efektif.
Part IVPart IVPROSPEK 2009PROSPEK 2009PROSPEK 2009PROSPEK 2009
Projections of GDP by several agenciesProjections of GDP by several agencies
No Agency Date 2008 2009
1 Gov’t of Indonesia January 2009 6.2 5.01 Gov t of Indonesia January 2009 6.2 5.0
2 Bank Indonesia January 2009 6.2 4.9
3 Economist January 2009 6.1 3.5
4 W ld B k D b 2008 6 0 4 44 World Bank December 2008 6.0 4.4
5 ADB December 2008 6.1 5.0
6 IMF October 2008 6.1 5.5
Projection of selected economic indicatorsProjection of selected economic indicators
2006 2007 2008 20092006 2007 2008 2009
GDP growth, % 5.5 6.3 6.0 5.7
Inflation, % 6.6 6.6 11.5 7.5
Current account, % of GDP 3.0 2.5 1.0 -0.1
BI rate period average % 11 6 8 6 8 8 7 50BI rate, period average, % 11.6 8.6 8.8 7.50
Rp/US$ (period average) 9,203 9,185 9,691 9,950
Open unemployment, % 10.3 9.8 8.3 8.7
Projections of GDP by Projections of GDP by expendituresexpenditures
BI Pemerintah FB
2008Deskripsi 2009BI Pemerintah FB
Konsumsi Swasta 5,3 4,4 4,8 5,0
Konsumsi Pemerintah 10 4 9 8 10 4 15 0Konsumsi Pemerintah 10,4 9,8 10,4 15,0
Investasi 11,7 7,0 6,5 0,0
Ekspor Barang & Jasa 9 5 5 2 5 9 0 0Ekspor Barang & Jasa 9,5 5,2 5,9 0,0
Impor Barang & Jasa 10,0 6,3 6,1 ‐5,0
Produk Domestik Bruto 6 1 4 5 5 0 5 7* Projection
Produk Domestik Bruto 6,1 4,5 5,0 5,7
Part VPart VDampak terhadap Industri ManufakturDampak terhadap Industri ManufakturDampak terhadap Industri ManufakturDampak terhadap Industri Manufaktur
Kinerja industri manufaktur 2008Kinerja industri manufaktur 2008
L j t b h %
2008 Q4-08 Q4-08 Sumbangan
Laju pertumbuhan, %
(y.o.y) (y.o.y) (q.o.q)g
2008
f k 3 8 2 0Manufaktur 3.7 1.8 ‐2.5 1.0
PDB 6 1 5 2 3 6 6 1Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
PDB 6.1 5.2 ‐3.6 6.1
Real GDP growth: tradables (%)Real GDP growth: tradables (%)2004 2005 2006 2007 H1-2008 Share
1. Agriculture 2.8% 2.7% 3.4% 3.5% 5.3% 14.0%a. Farm Food Crops 2.9% 2.6% 3.0% 3.5% 6.5% 7.5%b Non Food Crops 0 4% 2 5% 3 8% 3 5% 6 6% 1 9%b. Non Food Crops 0.4% 2.5% 3.8% 3.5% 6.6% 1.9%c. Others 3.9% 3.0% 3.7% 3.5% 4.6%
2. Mining and Quarrying -4.5% 3.2% 1.7% 2.0% -1.4% 8.3%a. Oil & Gas -4.3% -1.8% -1.1% -1.2% 0.0% 4.6%b. Non Oil & Gas -8.0% 12.2% 4.8% 5.5% -6.5% 2.7%c. Quarrying 7.5% 7.7% 8.3% 8.6% 8.1% 0.9%
3. Manufacturing Industries 6.4% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.1% 26.9%a Oil & Gas 2 0% 5 7% 1 7% 0 1% 0 7% 2 3%a. Oil & Gas -2.0% -5.7% -1.7% -0.1% 0.7% 2.3%b. Non Oil & Gas 7.5% 5.9% 5.3% 5.2% 4.5% 24.5%
* Food, Bev. & Tobacco 1.4% 2.7% 7.2% 5.1% -2.4% 6.4%* Textile, Leath & Footw 4.1% 1.3% 1.2% -3.7% -3.4% 2.6%* Wood & Forest Prod. -2.1% -0.9% -0.7% -1.7% 0.3% 1.0%* Paper & Printing 7.6% 2.4% 2.1% 5.8% 0.4% 1.3%* Fertilizer, Chem.& Rubber 9.0% 8.8% 4.5% 5.7% 3.5% 3.3%* Cement/Non Metal Quarry 9 5% 3 8% 0 5% 3 4% 0 5% 0 8%
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
* Cement/Non-Metal Quarry 9.5% 3.8% 0.5% 3.4% -0.5% 0.8%* Iron & Steel -2.6% -3.7% 4.7% 1.7% 3.0% 0.4%* Transport/Machine Equip. 17.7% 12.4% 7.6% 9.7% 15.8% 8.6%
Real GDP growth: Real GDP growth: nonnon--tradablestradables (%)(%)2004 2005 2006 2007 Share
4. Utilities 5.3% 6.3% 5.8% 10.4% 0.7%5. Constructions 7.5% 7.5% 8.3% 8.6% 6.2%6 Trade Hotel & Rest 5 7% 8 3% 6 4% 8 5% 17 3%6. Trade, Hotel & Rest. 5.7% 8.3% 6.4% 8.5% 17.3%
a. Wholesale & Retail 5.5% 8.8% 6.6% 8.9% 14.3%b. Hotel 7.9% 6.2% 5.2% 5.3% 0.7%c. Restaurant 6.1% 5.9% 5.8% 6.8% 2.3%
7. Transport & Comm. 13.4% 12.8% 14.4% 14.4% 7.3%a. Transport 8.8% 6.3% 6.6% 2.8% 3.7%
* Railways -0.9% -3.0% 6.4% 1.3% 0.0%* Road 5 0% 4 8% 5 0% 3 6% 1 6% Road 5.0% 4.8% 5.0% 3.6% 1.6%* Air Transport 30.1% 10.4% 10.7% 8.3% 0.6%
b. Communication 22.9% 24.6% 26.4% 29.5% 3.6%8. Finance 7.7% 6.7% 5.5% 8.0% 9.4%
a. Banks 6.0% 4.5% 1.6% 8.0% 4.0%b. Non Bank Financial 9.2% 8.3% 7.1% 8.1% 0.8%
9. Services 5.4% 5.2% 6.2% 6.6% 9.3%
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Non Oil & Gas GDP 6.0% 6.6% 6.1% 6.9% 92.7%Real GDP 5.0% 5.7% 5.5% 6.3% 100.0%
SumbanganSumbangan manufakturmanufaktur terhadapterhadap PDB, %PDB, %
39Swaziland
29,0
Indonesia 32
35Thailand
Belarus
28,0 31
31
31Ireland
Malaysia
26,0
27,031
29
29
Romania
Korea
Si
Source: BPS
29
27
28
Singapore
Indonesia
SloveniaSource: BPS. 27Slovenia
Source: World Bank.
JumlahJumlah penyerapanpenyerapan tenagatenaga kerjakerja
Sektor Tenaga Kerja PersentasePertambangan & Penggalian 633 711 1 3Pertambangan & Penggalian 633.711 1,3
Industri Pengolahan 11.785.057 23,8
Listrik, Gas, Air Bersih 161.775 0,3
Konstruksi 724 521 1 5Konstruksi 724.521 1,5
Perdagangan Besar dan Eceran 17.207.494 34,5
Akomodasi, Makan, Minum 5.137.200 10,3
T t i G d K ik i 3 561 066 7 2Transportasi, Gudang, Komunikasi 3.561.066 7,2
Perantara Keuangan 905.088 1,8
Real Estat, Usaha Persewaan 1.833.224 3,7
J P didik 4 027 744 8 1Jasa Pendidikan 4.027.744 8,1
Jasa Kesehatan dan Kegiatan Sosial 732.557 1,5
Jasa Kemasyarakatan, Sosbud, Hiburan 2.756.960 5,6
J P l i h 203 77 0 4
Sumber : BPS, Sensus Ekonomi 2006.
Jasa Perseorangan layani rumahtangga 203.77 0,4
Jumlah 49.670.167 100,0
Pertumbuhan manufaktur besar & sedangKLBI Uraian 2006 2007 2008*15 Makanan & minuman 11.9 5.2 ‐4.916 Pengolahan tembakau ‐0.9 15.9 6.817 Tekstil 6.0 11.2 4.718 Pakaian jadi 67.3 ‐23.0 ‐30.620 Kayu dan brg dr kayu ‐41.0 ‐16.4 0.624 Kimia & brg dr kimia 25.8 35.8 ‐13.026 Brg galian bkn logam 11.8 0.3 ‐15.127 Logam dasar 22.1 12.1 ‐2.629 Mesin & perlengkapannya ‐2.9 43.0 ‐17.331 Mesin listrik lainnya dan perlengkapannya ‐1.3 ‐22.1 12.232 Radio, TV & peralatan komunikasi 87.1 50.5 12.734 Kendaraan bermotor ‐46.5 29.6 16.635 Alat angkutan, selain kendaraan bermotor roda‐4 ‐36.6 ‐8.9 48.036 i & l h l i 9 336 Furnitur & pengolahan lainnya ‐1.9 ‐14.1 43.4
Total industri manufaktur ‐1.6 5.6 1.6*Triwulan ketiga. Sumber: BPS, 3 November 2008..
Perkiraan dampak krisis versi pemerintah
KodeDeskripsi Domestik Ekspor 2005 2007 2008 20091Tanaman bahan makanan 100 0 2,6 3,5 5,4 4,5
Laju pertumbuhan, %Orientasi produksi
2Perkebunan 89 11 2,5 3,5 4,0 2,53Peternakan 100 0 2,1 3,3 3,5 2,14Kehutanan 92 8 ‐1,5 ‐1,7 ‐0,8 ‐1,55Perikanan 95 5 5,4 5,8 3,0 2,06P t b i 50 50 1 8 1 0 0 0 2 56Pertambangan migas 50 50 ‐1,8 ‐1,0 0,0 2,57Pertambangan nonmigas 39 61 12,1 5,5 0,0 2,58Penggalian 98 2 7,4 8,6 7,8 5,09Industri nonmigas 75 25 5,9 5,2 4,0 2,510Industri migas 57 43 ‐5 9 ‐0 1 0 0 5 010Industri migas 57 43 5,9 0,1 0,0 5,011Listrik, gas, air bersih 100 0 6,3 10,4 10,5 6,512Bangunan 100 0 7,4 8,6 7,5 5,013Perdagangan 85 15 8,9 8,9 7,5 6,514Restoran dan hotel 100 0 6,7 5,3 5,0 4,015Pengangkutan 93 7 6,3 2,8 3,5 3,016Komunikasi 100 0 25,1 29,5 15,0 10,017Keuangan 100 0 6,8 8,0 8,5 5,018Pemerintahan umum 100 0 1,9 5,4 5,0 5,019J l i 100 0 7 9 7 6 7 5 5 019Jasa lainnya 100 0 7,9 7,6 7,5 5,020Kegiatan tak jelas batasnya 99 1 7,9 7,6 7,5 5,0
PDB 85 15 5,7 6,3 6,2 5,0
Which industries are most at risk?
Sumbangan nilai tambah
Value Added Contribution to Medium and Large Mfg Industries
High local contents High import contents& export oriented & export oriented
(14.42%) (16.17%)
Hi h l l t t Hi h i t t tHigh local contents High import contents& domestic oriented & domestic oriented
(32.45%)(36.88%)
Sumbangan NT dan tenaga kerja, 2005Sumbangan NT dan tenaga kerja, 2005
Kelompok Industri
Nilaitambah
Penyerapan tenaga kerja
Penggunaan bahan baku impor tinggi
Orientasi ekspor1 15,1 26,1
baku impor tinggi (> 29,3%)
pOrientasi domestik 33,2 20,4
Penggunaan bahan baku impor rendah
Orientasiekspor 36,5 33,2
Orientasi (<= 29,3%)
Orientasi domestik 15,2 20,3
Total 100 100Total 100 100Catatan: 1. Persentase hasil produksi yang diekspor lebih besar dari rata-rata seluruh industri (21,4%).Sumber: Diolah dari Statistik Industri Desar dan Sedang, Badan Pusat Statistik.
5 besar penyumbang nilai tambah5 besar penyumbang nilai tambah
Kandungan impor
Rendah Tinggi
Plywood; Pulp; Karet Garmen; Tabung dan
Ekspory p
remah; Minyak goreng dr kelapa; Pembekuan ikan
gkomponen elektrik; Pemintalan benang; Sepatu; Lembaran kaca
Orientasi pasar
ikan Sepatu; Lembaran kaca
Kretek; Minyak kasar; Kendaraan roda 4;
Domestik; y ;
Semen; Minyak goreng dr sawit; pupuk
;Kertas budaya; Farmasi; Radio, TV dan alat perekam; Autopartpupuk alat perekam; Autopart
Instrumen kebijakanInstrumen kebijakan
Kandungan impor
Rendah TinggiBea keluaran untukekspor bahan bak Pen r nan tarif bea
Eksporekspor bahan bakuKelancaran pasokanbahan baku
Penurunan tarif beamasuk bahan bakuGalakkan FDI
Orientasi pasar
Penetrasi pasar ekspor
P b b PPN?Penurunan bea
k kDomestik
Pembebasan PPN?Iklim persaingan
masuk komponenPengamanan pasardomestikSentuhan teknologi
