Melissa Leach: Dynamic Sustainabilities: Taking complexity and uncertainty seriously in environment...
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Dynamic Sustainabilities:Taking complexity and uncertainty seriously in
environment and developmentMelissa Leach
ESRC STEPS Centre, Institute of Development Studies, Sussex
UKCDS WorkshopMay 12 2011
• Complex dynamics and uncertainties in development challenges involving environment, food, health, water (epidemics, seeds and drought, water management, low carbon energy)
• A heuristic - the STEPS Centre’s pathways approach to understanding and acting on ‘dynamic sustainabilities’
• Complexity sciences and beyond, blending natural and social science approaches
Contradictions
• Growing recognition (in research and everyday life) of complexity, dynamism and uncertainties
• Growing recognition of diverse ways of knowing, values, perspectives, priorities
• Growing search for technical-managerial solutions premised on a far more static, consensual view of the world – solvable problems, achievable stability, controllable risks
……A mismatch - cycles of ‘failure’ as dynamics undermine assumptions of stability; emerging backlashes from nature, politics; mires of disagreement; those who are already vulnerable and marginal often lose out
Dynamic systems thinking in/for development – an extended family of concepts and approaches
• Complexity science (interdependence, co-evolution and inter-coupling; feedbacks: non-linear dynamics; context-dependence; emergent properties; self-organisation)
• Resilience thinking and sustainability science (shocks and stresses, disturbance and response, phase shifts, attractors)
• New perspectives in ecology (non-equilibrium dynamics, multiple stable states)
• Dynamics of technological change (socio-technical regimes, lock-in, contingency, niches, transitions)
• Organizations and management responses in dynamic settings (complexity as experienced and engaged in as well as described, soft systems, reflective practitioners, organizational learning)
Complex, dynamic system
Interacting social, ecological, technical,
politicalelements
A dynamic systems heuristic
Reflective scope:
Environment
Inchoate ‘reality’Complexity science seeks comprehensively to reflect a full range and diversity of - elements, - linkages and - dynamics in a system and its environment
And might describe pathways:Particular directions in which system elements co-evolve over time (non-linear, context-dependent, etc)
Change, development….
Framings: Different ways of understanding/representing complex system dynamics and change
Multiple possible pathways to different sustainabilities (which functions and values, for whom)
Normative agendas (What is ‘good change’? which pathways, to where? )
Reflexive attention to framings/narratives of different actors/researchers in development
Integrating a reflexive understanding:Dimensions of framingNot just:- Scale- Boundaries- Key elements and complex interrelationships- Dynamics in play
But also:- Perspectives- Interests- Goals- Values- Narratives
Complexity and dynamism mean pathways cannot be expected to unfold in deterministic ways
Dealing with incomplete knowledge:Uncertainty and surprise are inevitable
Tailoring strategies and actions:Dynamics cannot always be controlled
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge about likelihoods
knowledge about outcomes
Dealing with incomplete knowledgeMany contrasting aspects ....
RISKAMBIGUITY
UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge about likelihoods
knowledge about outcomes
Dealing with incomplete knowledgee.g. Avian influenza
RISKAMBIGUITY
UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE
ostensibly definitivequantitative probabilisticmodels of risk
pandemic or not?impacts of veterinary controls?behaviour change in crisis?interplay in viral ecology / geneticsimmuno -compromisation ?
define ‘outbreak’:distributional consequences?mortality / morbidity?vulnerable groups?economic costs?livelihoods impacts?
new strains of the virus?unexpected transmission vectors?unanticipated health outcomes?complex social interactions?entirely novel pathogens?
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge about likelihoods
knowledge about outcomes
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
decision rules aggregative analysis deliberative process political closure
reductive modelingstochastic reasoningrules of thumbinsurance
` evidence-basing agenda-setting horizon scanning transdisciplinarity
liability lawharm definitions indicators / metrics institutional remits
Powerful pressures to ‘close down’ towards risk
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge about likelihoods
knowledge about outcomes
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
uncertainty heuristics
interval analysis
sensitivity testing
scenarios / backcasting
interactive modeling
mapping / Q-methods
participatory deliberation
reflexive research
institutional learning
adaptive management
From closing-down to opening-upVarious potential tools and methods...
reductive aggregative models
ALL INVOLVE INTERACTIVE MAPPING OF DIFFERENT UNDERSTANDINGS
STABILITY
DURABILITY
RESILIENCE
ROBUSTNESS
SUSTAINABILITY
Shaping pathways to sustainability, doing development But sustainability is not one thing.....
What is to be sustained (functions, values, services...) and who values these?
From Knowledge to Action
Temporality of change – are changes seen as shocks or stresses?Potency of action – is the aim to control or respond to change?
shock (transient
disruption)
stress (enduring
shift)
control respond
temporality of change
style of action
STABILITY
Tailoring strategies and actionsMultiple dynamics, often uncontrollable....
DURABILITY
RESILIENCE
ROBUSTNESS
shock (transient
disruption)
stress (enduring
shift)
control respond
temporality of change
style of action
STABILITY
Tailoring strategies and actionse.g. dealing with water resources in dryland India
DURABILITY
RESILIENCE
ROBUSTNESS
Control of short-term supply variability through dams, pumps and pipes
Engineering solutions geared to long-term shifts in rainfall and hydrology (e.g. margins, reduced water levels)
Adaptive responses and interventions geared to floods and droughts (e.g. crop mixes, mobility, water harvesting) ; local knowledge, culturally-embedded practices
Response to long-term shifts in water supply and use (e.g. changes in land use, agricultural practices, livelihoods); variegated, flexible institutional and engineering arrangements
shock (against transient
disruption)
stress (agaInst
enduring shift)
control (change is internal to control system)
response (change is external
to control system)
temporality of change
potency of action
STABILITY
e.g. blueprint planning in development
e.g. top-down engineering approaches in water management
e.g. avian influenza: routine responses, institutionalised practices encoded in
standard, global surveillance, early warning and rapid response routines
Powerful pressures to ‘close down’ around planned equilibrium
Need to be reflexive about the dynamics of power
DURABILITY
RESILIENCE
ROBUSTNESS
shock (transient disruption)
stress (enduring shift)
temporality of change
style of actioncontrol (tractable drivers )
respond (intractable drivers )
From closing-down to opening-upSome candidate styles of institution and intervention
shock (transient
disruption)
stress (enduring
shift)
control
response
temporality of change
potency of action
From closing-down to opening-upBroad reflection, reflexivity and humility are vital
DURABILITY
RESILIENCE
ROBUSTNESS
Reflection and Reflexivity
engage stakeholders; address multiple goals and values; explore uncertainties; map ambiguities; maintain flexibility / diversity
Development and pathways to sustainability amidst/as complex dynamics: some pointersBroad Reflection
- acknowledge quantification beyond reductive-aggregative modelling
Open Reflexivity
- beware powerful pressures to justify deterministic-, risk- and stability-based policies
Combine scientific rigour, democratic accountability and humility
- don’t be ashamed of ‘heuristics’: examine sensitivities to uncertainties
- disaggregate different framings: explore diverse scenarios / narratives, recognise multiple possible goals and values and their contestation
- show humility about ignorance – admit “we don’t know what we don’t know”
- challenge (‘sound science’) rhetorics in analysis of complex dynamic systems
- don’t take parameters for granted – acknowledge and deliberate over subjectivity
- acknowledge positionality and interactions of all involved actors, including different researchers, policy-makers and practitioners, citizens – engaged, participatory, transdiscipinary research- no ‘analytical fixes’ – highlight intrinsic politics in complexity and sustainability-