Medium‐Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013 (Webinar ... · © OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA 2013...
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© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA 2013 Medium‐Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013 Michael Waldron Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency
Transcript of Medium‐Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013 (Webinar ... · © OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA 2013...
© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA 2013
Medium‐Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013
Michael WaldronRenewable Energy DivisionInternational Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2013
Medium‐Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013
MTRMR methodology and scope
Analysis of drivers and challenges for RE deployment at country level Regulatory framework, power demand,
competition with other fuels, grid integration
Bottom‐up, global RE power capacity and generation forecast, with case studies: USA, Canada, Chile, Mexico Japan, Korea, Australia Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy,
Spain, Turkey, UK China, Brazil, India, Thailand, Morocco, South
Africa
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Y-o-YChgTWh Power demand vs GDP
Demand Demand, Y-o-Y (RHS)GDP, Y-o-Y (RHS)
Global biofuels production by country Regional breakdown RE for heat
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TWh Power generation
Coal Oil Natural gasNuclear Hydro BioenergyWind Solar PV Geothermal
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Renewable electricity projected to scale up by 40% from 2012 to 2018
Positive outlook for renewable electricity
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Hydropower Bioenergy Onshore windOffshore wind Solar PV CSPGeothermal Ocean % Total generation
IEA 2° C Scenario
Global renewable electricity production, by technology (TWh)
Gas-fired generation 2016
Nuclear generation 2016
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Biofuels production growing but leveling off
Biofuels to cover 3.9% of global road transport by 2018, But downside risk from growing policy uncertainty in the EU
and US; and advanced biofuels not making enough progress
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Rest of Global Biofuels OECD EUR Biofuels
Brazil Biofuels US Biofuels
Biofuels supply by region Global biofuels supply adjusted for energy content vs road transport oil demand
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Biofuels Supply (adj. for energy content)As % of Global Road Transport Demand
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Final energy use of renewables for heat rises by 24% As % of final energy consumption for heat, renewables rise to almost 10% in
2018, up from just over 8% in 2012 and 8% in 2006 China accounts for 39% of global growth OECD Europe drives 22% of growth, with EU 2020 targets and rising bioenergy
(direct use and commercial heat) and solar thermal useFinal energy use of renewable sources for heat (including commercial heat) by region
Note: excludes traditional biomass
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OECD Americas OECD Asia OceaniaOECD Europe ChinaBrazil IndiaRest of non-OECD % total heat, World (right axis)
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Renewable power spreading out everywhere
Emerging markets more than compensate for slowing growth and volatility in markets such as Europe and the US
Total Renewable Annual Capacity Additions, by region (GW)
This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
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Deployment transitioning to more markets
Non‐hydro renewable electricity development becoming increasingly widespread – more optimistic than MTRMR 2012
Number of countries with non-hydro renewable capacity above 100 MW
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Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Bioenergy Solar PV CSP Geothermal Ocean
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Improving competitiveness for renewable power Most dynamic technologies – onshore wind and solar PV – increasingly
competitive in a number of markets But market framework matters
Deployment with little support occurring in some areas with rising energy needs, good resources, and predictable long‐term revenues
Global levelised costs of power generation ranges (USD per MWh)
Note: costs reflect differences in resource, local conditions, and the choice of sub‐technology.
MTRMR 2012
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Growth of renewable power accelerating
Hydropower remains the largest increasing single renewable technology in electricity generation
But for the first time additional generation expected from all non‐hydro sources exceeds that from hydropower; and additional capacity led by wind
Historical cumulative additions (TWh) Forecast cumulative additions (TWh)
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Onshore outlook more optimistic than in MRMR 2012 Policy uncertainties make additions volatile in some areas Offshore wind outlook more pessimistic than MRMR 2012, with financing
and integration challenges
Total wind (onshore + offshore) annual capacity additions by region (GW)
Global RE capacity additions led by wind
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OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD EuropeChina Rest of Non‐OECD
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PV Annual Capacity Additions (GW)
Strong growth seen in China, Africa, Middle East, and Latin America
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Solar PV growing out of Europe
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But other technologies lagging behind
Potential of offshore power remains high, but technical, financial and grid connection issues pose challenges
Storage adds value to CSP, but deployment hampered by relatively high costs
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Wind offshore generation projection Concentrating solar power generation projection
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Progress tracked on different scales
Detailed reporting only on 21 focus countries in above tables But other countries also show very significant progress (e.g. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Cambodia, Tunisia, Ethiopia, Kenya)
Incremental TWh(2012-18)
1. China + 750
2. USA + 150
3. Brazil + 130
4. India + 95
5. Germany + 70
Avg annual growth(2012-18)
1. Morocco + 24.9%
2. South Africa + 20.1%
3. Korea + 14.1%
4. Australia + 14.0%
5. UK + 13.0%
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Non‐OECD accounts for two‐thirds of renewable power growth
In 2018, non‐OECD comprises 58% of total renewable generation, up from 54% in 2012 and 51% in 2006
China alone accounts for 40% of growth Other key markets:
Brazil (wind, bioenergy), India (wind, solar, bioenergy), South Africa and Morocco (wind, solar), Thailand (bioenergy), Middle East (solar, wind)
Non-OECD renewable generation by source (TWh)
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Hydro Bioenergy Wind onshoreWind of fshore So lar PV CSPGeotherm al Ocean % total generation
(right axis)
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China sees strong deployment across all RE but grid integration remains challenging
Drivers strong government support through FYPs availability of low‐cost financing eased rules for grid connections and new incentives for small scale projects robust manufacturing and tech. develop.
Challenges lack of market pricing and priority dispatch in practice grid planning and upgrading for renewables lack of deployment history for less‐mature technologies
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China renewable power generation 2006‐18 (TWh)
Hydro Bioenergy Wind onshore Solar PV Solar CSP Geothermal Ocean Wind offshore
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RE largest contributor to total electricity increase in OECD
Renewables expected to grow almost like fossil fuels in OECD Americas, and more than total demand in Europe
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Changes in power generation by source and region, OECD, 2012-18
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Renewable power and natural gas
Gas generation to crowd out renewables? Or vice‐versa? Renewables and gas can both grow strongly…
Globally: coal‐to‐gas switching can lead to large reductions in CO2 emissions, but gas is not enough to meet 2DS
USA: some competition, but strong RE drivers even with low power prices; RE enhances diversification, gas helps balance variable RE; large scope for coal replacement
Europe: slow demand growth, high gas prices, overcapacity in some markets; RE crowding out gas; still, gas provides important balancing for rising variable RE
Asia: portfolio of low‐carbon solutions needed to meet rapid demand growth; high LNG prices make RE attractive
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Over the long term, the power generation mix is set to change
Global electricity generation by source, 2010‐2035
Renewables electricity generation overtakes natural gas in the next few years and almost reach coal by 2035 in the New Policies Scenario
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Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 NPS
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Policy uncertainty is the number one risk
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1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018Annual additions Projected additions
Expiration of federal PTC
Assumed expiration of PTC at end-2013
Uncertainty over PTC renewal at end-2012
US onshore wind annual additions (GW)
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Assumed moratorium on new projects under Special Regime from Jan 2012 onwards
Deep financial incentive cuts and cap for solar PV
Spain solar PV + CSP annual additions (GW)
Abrupt, retroactive policy changes
Stop & go policies
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Conclusions for policy‐making
Many renewables no longer require high economic incentives
But they do need long‐term policies that continue to provide a predictable and reliable market and regulatory framework compatible with societal goals
Consistent policy framework more important than specific RE incentive type
Competitiveness of renewables depends on market design Fair rules for up‐front capital intensive technologies and distributed generation will be key
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For further insights and analysis…
The Medium‐Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013 can be purchased online at:
www.iea.org
Thank you for your attention!
