Medición del Ciclo Económico

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Chapter 3

Business

Cycle

Measurement



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Chapter 3 Topics

• Regularities in GP !lu"tuations.

• Co#ove#ent

• $ehavior o! %ey &a"roe"ono#i" 'aria(les




Regularities in GDP

Fluctuations

• $usiness Cy"les are fluctuations about trend in

real GDP.

• )he turning points in the deviations o! real GP!ro# trend are peaks and troughs.

• Persistent positive deviations !ro# trend are

booms and persistent negative deviations !ro#trend are recessions.



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Figure 3.1 Idealized Business

Cyles



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Deviations From Trend in

Real GDP are rregular

• )he !lu"tuations in GP a(out trend are ,uite

"hoppy.

• )here is no regularity in the a#plitude o!!lu"tuations in real GP a(out trend.

• )here is no regularity in the !re,uen"y o!

!lu"tuations in real GP a(out trend.



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Figure 3.! Perentage !eviations "ro#

$rend in %eal &!P "ro# '()*+200,



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Figure 3.3 $i#e eries Plots

o" x and y




Figure 3." Correlations

Beteen /ariales y and x



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Correlation #ith Real GDP

• ! the deviations !ro# trend in a #a"roe"ono#i"

varia(le are positively 1negatively "orrelated

ith the deviations !ro# trend in real GP4 thenthat varia(le is procyclical 1countercyclical .

• ! a #a"roe"ono#i" varia(le is neither

pro"y"li"al nor "ounter"y"li"al4 it is acyclical.




Figure 3.$ I#ports and &!P




Figure 3.% atter Plot o"

I#ports and &!P




Figure 3.& 1eading and

1agging /ariales




Figure 3.' Perentage !eviations "ro# $rend in

%eal &!P olored line and the Inde4 o" 1eading

5ono#i Indiators la6 line "or '(7(+200,



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Behavior o( )ey

Macroeconomic *aria+les

• Co#ponents o! GP6 "onsu#ption and

invest#ent.

• 7o#inal varia(les6 pri"e level and #oneysupply.

• a(or #ar9et varia(les6 e#ploy#ent4 real age4

average la(or produ"tivity.



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Figure 3., Perentage !eviations "ro#

$rend in %eal Consu#ption la6 line and

%eal &!P olored line '()*+200,




Figure 3.1- Perentage !eviations "ro#

$rend in %eal Invest#ent la6 line and

%eal &!P olored line




Figure 3.11 atter Plot "or the Perentage

!eviations "ro# $rend in the Prie 1evel the

I#pliit &!P Prie !e"lator and %eal &!P




Figure 3.1! Prie 1evel and

&!P



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Figure 3.13 Perentage !eviations "ro# $rend

in the oney upply la6 line and %eal &!P

olored line "or the Period '(7(+200,.




Figure 3.1" Perentage !eviations "ro#

$rend in 5#ploy#ent la6 line and

%eal &!P olored line




Figure 3.1$ Perentage !eviations "ro# $rend

in Average 1aor Produtivity la6 line and

%eal &!P olored line "or '()8+200,




Figure 3.1% easonally Ad9usted la6

and :nad9usted olored oney upply

"or the ;ears 200'+200,




Ta+le 3.1 Correlation Coe""iients and

/ariaility o" Perentage !eviations "ro#

$rend




Figure 3.1' atter Plot o" &overn#ent

54penditures Against %eal &!P




Figure 3.1, Perentage !eviations

"ro# $rend in %eal &!P and 54ports




Figure 3.!- atter Plot o"

54ports vs. &!P

Medición del Ciclo Económico

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