Medicaid & Predictive Analytics -...
Transcript of Medicaid & Predictive Analytics -...
Medicaid & Predictive Analytics
Thomas J. Kessler, Esq. Acting Director, Division of Fraud
Research and Detection, Data Analytics and Control Group, Center for Program
Integrity, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services
September 11, 2013
Discussion Items
Data Analytics and Control Group
Medicaid and Predictive Analytics
Medicare Experience with Predictive Analytics
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Center for Program Integrity (CPI) Dr. Peter Budetti, Deputy Administrator and Director
Ted Doolittle, Deputy Center Director for Policy Elisabeth Handley, Deputy Center Director for Operations
MPIG MIG DPSG DACG PIEG PEOG
CMS Center for Program Integrity
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Kelly Gent – Director Raymond Wedgeworth – Deputy Director
Analytics Lab Division (ALD) Linda Smith, Acting Marin Gemmill‐
Toyama, Deputy Director
Systems Management
Division (SMD) Craig Mooney, Director Kathy Wolf, Deputy
Director
Command Center
Division (CCD) Brenda
Emanuel, Director
Division of Fraud Research & Detection
(DFRD) Thomas Kessler, Acting
Director
Center for Program Integrity (CPI) Data Analy:cs and Control Group (DACG)
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• Use sophisticated analytics and technologies to support identification of improper payments and ineligible providers in Medicare and Medicaid.
• Support and manage information technology investments critical for program integrity activities.
• Manage the Command Center in support of the Center for Program Integrity’s mission.
DACG Func:ons
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DACG Organiza:on
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Systems Management Division (SMD)
Analytics Lab Division (ALD)
Division of Fraud Research & Detection
(DFRD)
Command Center Division (CCD)
• Provides statistical and data analysis for program integrity • Identifies emerging fraud trends through data mining and
other advanced analytical techniques • Leads model development for the Fraud Prevention System
• Manages system development and enhancements in support of information gathering and analysis to detect fraud and abuse.
• Implements data management technologies and strategies to support sophisticated analysis to identify fraud and abuse.
• Provides a collaborative environment for a multi-disciplinary team, including ZPICs and law enforcement, to develop consistent approaches for investigation and action.
• Provides statistical and data analysis for program integrity activities related to the National Medicaid Audit Program.
• Supports evaluation of predictive analytics across programs.
Discussion Items
Data Analytics and Control Group
Medicaid and Predictive Analytics
Medicare Experience with Predictive Analytics
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• Many State Medicaid Programs are in various stages of applying sophisticated predictive analytics technologies in their program integrity efforts.
• In addition, the Small Business Jobs Act of 2010 (the Act), section 4241(e)(3) requires CMS undertake an analysis to determine the feasibility and cost effectiveness of applying predictive analytics in the Medicaid and CHIP programs.
• The results of the analysis will be included in the Report to Congress due March 31, 2015
Medicaid Predic:ve Analy:cs
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• Challenges: – State Resources and funding – Competing priorities – State staff necessary to support information technology – Identifying the right technology – Applying predictive analytics prepayment – Measuring outcomes – Federal role limited to assistance in light of claims data access
• Opportunity: – Advanced technologies have the capability to identify fraud
earlier and prevent improper payments
Challenges and Opportuni:es
• CMS is providing technical assistance to States: – General TA package: for States considering predictive analytics technologies
– Targeted TA: for States moving forward with tools – Algorithm exchange: considering opportunities to share successful algorithms among States and CMS
– Medicaid Integrity Institute training sessions – Command Center missions focused on algorithm development, investigation approaches, and outcome measurement
Ac:vi:es
Ac:vi:es
• CMS may approve enhanced Federal Financial Participation for certain allowable activities and resources for Predictive Analytics related to the MMIS, including: – Planning, Requirements, IT Hardware/Equipment, Software, Staffing and Contractor Support, Required Reporting (CMS and State)
– Advanced Planning Document template is available thru the CMS Regional Office
Ac:vi:es
• CMS will evaluate the feasibility of applying predictive analytics in Medicaid: • Focus groups with State Medicaid Agencies that are applying predictive analytics
• Evaluate outcomes of incorporating available post‐payment Medicaid data into the Fraud Prevention System to support Medi‐Medi activities
• Conduct environmental scans with States
Discussion Items
Overview of the Data Analytics and Control Group
Medicaid and Predictive Analytics
Medicare Experience with Predictive Analytics
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• The Small Business Jobs Act of 2010 mandates that CMS implement predictive modeling and other advanced analytic technologies to prevent potential fraud, waste, and abuse.
• CPI implemented this requirement through the launch of the FPS on June 30, 2011.
• The FPS applies effective predictive models and other advanced algorithms to identify providers exhibiting a pattern of behavior that is indicative of potential fraud, waste, and abuse.
Fraud Preven:on System
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• The FPS system currently screens all national Medicare Part A, Part B, and DME claims during the adjudication process and consolidates alerts by provider.
• Monitors 4.5 million claims each day using a variety of analytic models.
Fraud Preven:on System
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• The FPS presents the alert results in a prioritized list, provides detailed information (including claims lines, beneficiaries, associated providers and claims). – Results are provided to the Zone Program Integrity Contractor analysts and investigators with views by regions.
– Results are available to CPI and law enforcement partners in a prioritized national view.
Fraud Preven:on System
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17 INFORMATION NOT RELEASABLE TO THE PUBLIC UNLESS AUTHORIZED BY LAW This information has not been publicly disclosed and may be privileged and con!dential. It is for internal government use only and must not be disseminated, distributed, or copied to persons not authorized to receive the information. Unauthorized disclosure may result in prosecution to the fullest extent of the law.
Claims Processing
Fraud Prevention System
CPI Analytics Lab
Integrated Data Repository
IDR
Rules Anomaly Detection Predictive Models Social Network Analysis
National Fraud Prevention Program Claim For Payment
Zone Program Integrity
Contractors
NGD STARS One PI PECOS
FID APS FPS
Examples of “Models” in Credit Card Fraud
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Rule Charge for TV in FL – Cardholder lives in CA (Unlikely charge)
Anomaly
Charges for 3 TVs in one day (99% of people buy less than 3 in a single day)
Social Network
Charge for a TV at an address known to have bad charges using a card with a phone number used by a known bad actor (relationship suggests a problem)
Predictive Model
Charges for multiple TVs out of state, after a $1.00 charge, on Wednesdays after midnight (Based on experience, these charges have a very high probability of being bad)
Models Run Simultaneously Risk Score
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Rule Anomaly
Predictive Model
Social Network
Health Care Claims Trigger FPS
Risk Score by a Provider’s
Book of Business, Not Individual Claim
Investigations Complaints Stolen IDs
Information from Enrollment
Fraud Preven:on System (FPS) Background
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• The Fraud Prevention System Report to Congress for the first implementation year was published in December 2012.
• Prevented or identified $115.4 million in payments
• Generated leads for 536 new investigations and augmented information for 511 pre-existing investigations