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Nolan Arenado MVP Discussion Boils Down to Wins, Coors Field By Kevin Henry / Rox Pile | November 15th, 2016

While many Colorado Rockies fans scratch their heads why Nolan Arenado isn’t in the conversation for National League

Most Valuable Player, Arenado thinks he knows two reasons.

Despite leading the National League with 41 homers and all of Major League Baseball with 133 RBI, Arenado finds

himself on the outside looking in when it comes to the 2016 NL MVP balloting. Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs,

Washington’s Daniel Murphy and Corey Seager of the Los Angeles Dodgers were named as finalists for the award. The

winner will be named on Thursday, November 17.

So why not Arenado? After all, he has gathered plenty of individual hardware, capturing four consecutive Gold Gloves,

two straight Silver Sluggers, two consecutive Fielding Bible awards and back-to-back Wilson Defensive Player of the Year

awards at third base. Yet when it comes to the MVP award, Colorado’s All-Star third baseman is on the outside looking in.

Arenado thinks it boils down to two simple reasons: Winning and playing at Coors Field for 81 games.

“I think people hold some stuff against us and, you know, I guess that’s just the way it goes. But at the end of the day, it’s

all good,” Arenado told MLB Network in a recent interview. “The ball, it’s a good place to hit. That is the truth. But yeah,

I guess there’s a little something there. And also, we didn’t win, and I think that had a lot to do with it also. You’ve got to

win.”

Arenado hit .312 at home this season with 25 homers and 85 RBI. On the road, he posted a .277 average with 16 homers

and 48 RBI. Yes, the numbers lean in the favor of Coors Field in 2016. However, last season, Arenado actually hit more

homers away from LoDo (22) than in Denver (20) when he tied for the NL lead with 42 homers.

MEDIA CLIPS – November 15, 2016

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Numbers and statistics can be split any way imaginable. One thing that can’t, however, is the number of wins a team

compiles in a season. The 75 wins posted by the 2016 Rockies were the most the team has logged since Arenado came

into the league in April of 2013. Arenado knows that has to change for perceptions to change.

“I guess to do something, to get recognition, you’ve got to win games and we didn’t do that,” Arenado said. “And that

hasn’t happened in Colorado for a long time, and we’re trying to get back to those ways, and then maybe people will

change their point of view. But the three MVP finalists were all in the playoffs and they all played really well, so you have

to give those guys credit. They did a great job.”

So the big question becomes this … if the Colorado Rockies take the proverbial “next step” this season and make it into

the postseason, will Arenado earn more recognition around the country? Of course, there are a lot of assumptions that go

with that statement, including Arenado’s health and his continued bashing of the baseball at such amazing rates.

Still, it begs the question of how much winning plays into the “V” in MVP. Bryant helped the Cubs win their first World

Series since 1908 and is the odd-on favorite to win the MVP award. He had fewer homers (39) and RBI (102) than

Arenado this season … and Nolan has already been named the Silver Slugger at third base.

I talked about the budding rivalry between Bryant and Arenado in this article. There will be plenty more discussions

surrounding All-Star Games and postseason awards involving these two fine players in years to come. However, if the

wins start coming in Colorado as well, the discussion on who’s the real MVP (sorry, Kevin Durant) on every level could

become very interesting very quickly.

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Tyler Chatwood's return from second Tommy John surgery a resounding success Chatwood found a new pitch and used it -- on the road, at least -- to make hitters look foolish. By Bryan Kilpatrick / Purple Row | Nov 14, 2016, 11:02am MST

Colorado Rockies pitcher Tyler Chatwood has already beaten the odds.

Sure, the 26-year-old right-hander is one of the 65.5 percent of pitchers who were able to return to professional

baseball after having a second Tommy John surgery. But a small number of those pitchers were able to shoulder the

workload they did previously. Chatwood is also one of those.

After missing most of 2014 and all of 2015, Chatwood returned to Colorado's rotation and threw a career-high 158

innings. What's more, the five-year big leaguer was as effective as he's ever been, posting a 3.87 ERA (126 ERA+) and

3.6 rWAR in 27 starts. Chatwood pitched around injuries, but none were related to the torn ulnar collateral ligament he

had replaced in May of 2014. It was, in all, a wonderful story of perseverance -- one helped by a key adjustment on the

mound.

Entering 2016, Chatwood was mainly a four-pitch starter; he used four-seam and two-seam fastball regularly, and at times

worked in a slider and curve ball. His offspeed offerings didn't change much last season, other than the fact that he used

his curve even less frequently than before. But Chatwood started mixing in a cutter 22 percent of the time, according to

Fangraphs, and the results were terrific.

Chatwood also had the benefit of not losing much off of his fastball from where it was pre-surgery, which is a wonderful

and extremely fortunate thing. But the cutter allowed him to further mitigate the effects of his inability to strike batters out

and avoid walks; Chatwood issued four free passes per nine innings, and though his 6.7 strikeouts per nine easily beat his

previous career totals, the figure was still well below the 7.9 K/9 average for NL starters.

Instead of missing bats altogether, Chatwood focused on missing barrels. It worked; among NL pitchers with at least 150

innings pitched, Chatwood's 57.3 percent ground ball rate ranked No. 1. That contributed to his 29.5 percent hard-hit rate,

which placed him 10th in the league.

The approach brought particularly great results in environments that don't penalize pitchers for frequently allowing contact,

as Coors Field is wont to do. Chatwood posted a 1.69 ERA in 80 innings and limited opposing hitters to a .190/.286/.272

line on the road.

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That'll do.

2017 Outlook

Chatwood will be a free-agent after next season. That's good news in that the club can lean on him heavily in a contract

year if they're contending (like most of us think they will), or they can ship him out to a winning club at the deadline. His

injury-riddled past won't be a secret to opposing teams, so it'll likely limit what the Rockies can get in return. But

something is better than nothing, which is what Colorado would receive if Chatwood simply walks after the season.

At any rate, Chatwood appears to be a key cog in a rotation that will be expected to do big things in 2017. That's the most

important part out of all of this.

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Top 24 Prospects: Colorado Rockies By Eric Longenhagen / Fangraphs | November 15, 2016

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Colorado Rockies farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with

information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical

projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell.

For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For

further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future

performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major

leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely

objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to

sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have

received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other lists: ARI, SF, SD, LAD

Rockies Top Prospects Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV

1 Brendan Rodgers 20 A SS 2019 60

2 Riley Pint 19 R RHP 2020 55

3 Jeff Hoffman 23 MLB RHP 2016 55

4 German Marquez 21 MLB RHP 2016 55

5 Raimel Tapia 22 MLB CF 2016 50

6 Kyle Freeland 23 AAA LHP 2017 50

7 Pedro Gonzalez 19 R CF 2020 45

8 Miguel Castro 21 MLB RHP 2015 45

9 Tom Murphy 25 MLB C 2015 45

10 Forrest Wall 20 A+ 2B/OF 2019 45

11 Ryan Castellani 20 A+ RHP 2019 45

12 Ben Bowden 22 A LHP 2018 45

13 Yency Almonte 22 AA RHP 2018 45

14 Pete Lambert 19 A RHP 2021 40

15 Ryan McMahon 21 AA 1B 2018 40

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Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV

16 Sam Howard 23 AA LHP 2017 45

17 Tyler Nevin 19 A- 3B 2021 40

18 Dom Nunez 21 A+ C 2020 40

19 Robert Tyler 21 A- RHP 2020 40

20 Colton Welker 19 R 1B/3B 2021 40

21 Daniel Montano 17 R CF 2022 40

22 Garrett Hampson 22 A- SS 2019 40

23 Julian Fernandez 20 A- RHP 2020 40

24 Jordan Patterson 24 MLB OF/1B 2016 40

60 FV Prospects

1. Brendan Rodgers, SS

Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Lake Mary HS (FL)

Age 20 Height 6’0 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw

30/55 55/60 40/55 50/45 40/50 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Recorded .199 ISO in Low-A.

Scouting Report

Some amateur evaluators thought Rodgers, the top prep talent in the 2015 draft, was the best overall prospect in the

class because they liked his chances to stay at shortstop and eventually hit for more power than Dansby

Swanson and Alex Bregman. While the other two have already made their big-league debuts, Rodgers has hit well as a

young regular for two pro seasons while maintaining (and, in 2016, improving) a body some thought would fill out and

require a move to third base.

Though he doesn’t have any elite tools, Rodgers’ hit/power combination and potential to play the end-all-be-all of

defensive positions makes him not only the best prospect in this system but one of the better ones in all of baseball. He

has plus bat speed, barrel control, a casual but effective weight transfer, strong wrists and a bat path conducive both to

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contact and power. He’s also shown the ability to stay back on breaking balls. The only consistent issue Rodgers has

displayed is dealing with offspeed stuff on the outer half. He has a tendency to pull off toward third base and miss sliders

and changeups that break away from him, leading some scouts to question his plate coverage. He has the physical ability

to be a plus hitter if he can correct that issue.

Defensively, Rodgers doesn’t have spectacular range but his hands and actions are worthy of shortstop, and he has an

above-average arm. He projects as an average defender at short. There’s a decent chance he fills out, slows down, and

moves to second or third base where he could be a 55 or 60 defender. Scouts who saw Rodgers in pro ball after he

signed last year thought this was quite likely but Rodgers’ body was much better in 2016 and he’s instilled confidence in

onlookers that he can remain at short for quite a while. He did see considerable time at second base in 2016.

The track record for hitters who have consistent and sustained success on the high-school showcase circuit is very good,

and even if Rodgers does move off of short, I think he’ll hit enough to profile anywhere, making him relatively low risk for a

hitter this age. I see him as a do-no-harm shortstop who hits .270 or so with 20-plus homers. Those projections are

independent of Coors Field. He’s a potential star.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 3.4 WAR

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55 FV Prospects

2. Riley Pint, RHP

Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from St. Thomas Aquinas HS (KS)

Age 19 Height 6’4 Weight 195 Bat/Throw R/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Fastball Slider Changeup Command

70/70 50/70 40/55 30/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

This number: 102. That’s Pint’s reported peak velocity.

Scouting Report

Pint is the prototypical power pitching prospect cut from the same physical cloth as Justin Verlander and possessing the

same god-given heat. Aside from the violent head whack entrenched in Pint’s delivery, he has all the physical attributes of

a front-end arm. He’s very athletic (Pint played basketball in high school and once scored 21 points in a single quarter as

a junior), has a broad-shouldered, projectable frame and he repeats an explosive but graceful delivery fairly well for his

age.

He also sits 96-plus with the fastball. Pint will show you an easy 96 during warmups before cresting 100 mph — as he did

in his only instructional-league outing. He was flashing a plus-plus power breaking ball during instructs in the 82-86 mph

range. It was consistently above average and many had surprising depth given their velocity. Pint’s feel for an upper-80s

changeup is immature but he showed glimpses of an average one late in his instructional outing. He’s able to mimic his

fastball’s arm speed but has a hard time getting the ball to tumble away from lefties. Pint’s arm speed and athleticism

allow for projection here, as do universally glowing reviews on his makeup.

While Pint can touch 100 in short bursts, he mostly sits 94-98 over the course of an entire start. His slider projects to at

least plus at maturity and I think the changeup will come. Some teams were concerned about the violence in the delivery

leading up to the draft. At the very least, scouts questioned whether retaining his head whack would cost Pint starter-level

command in pro ball. His command is well below average right now but again, this is a good athlete and it’s unreasonable

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to expect a teenager with an upper-90s fastball to have even fringe-average command right now. I think it will come

eventually. There’s a chance for three plus or better pitches here with at least average command. Pint is a potential front-

line starter.

3. Jeff Hoffman, RHP

Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from East Carolina

Age 24 Height 6’5 Weight 225 Bat/Throw R/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command

55/60 45/55 55/60 45/50 40/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Recorded 24.2% strikeout rate at Triple-A before promotion.

Scouting Report

Hoffman was a potential 1-1 candidate at East Carolina but blew out his elbow as a junior and needed pre-draft Tommy

John surgery. The Blue Jays, who drafted very aggressively between 2011 and 2015, popped him No. 9 overall. Hoffman

reached the majors in his first full season but his performance, stuff, and mechanics have drawn mixed reviews. His

fastball sits 92-95 and will touch 97. It has life up in the zone and posted an above-average spin rate at the Futures

Game, but Hoffman’s delivery lacks deception and the fastball doesn’t play that well within the strike zone.

He frequently deploys a mid-70s curveball that flashes plus. The pitch has great depth but Hoffman was babying it during

his big-league stint and noticeably decelerating his arm as he tried to get it over for strikes. He also throws a mid-80s

changeup and slider, both average offerings with projection, but Hoffman struggled with command so badly this year that

he rarely worked into counts where he could throw them.

Scouts who have seen Hoffman this year have caught glimpses of the stuff that made him a tantalizing amateur prospect;

because of the tough debut, though, his stock is certainly down. He still has a chance to be an upper-crust arm,

something in the No. 2- or 3-starter range (which is what I graded him as mid-year) but what we saw in 2016 was not

encouraging.

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KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 6.9 WAR

4. German Marquez, RHP

Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Venezuela

Age 22 Height 6’1 Weight 184 Bat/Throw R/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Fastball Curveball Changeup Command

55/60 55/60 40/50 50/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Hasn’t posted walk rate above 6.1% since joining Colorado organization.

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Scouting Report

Acquired from Tampa Bay in the Corey Dickerson trade, Marquez made his major-league debut at age 21 this year after

ripping through Double-A. His fastball sits 92-95 and will touch as high as 97 or 98 at times. It features heavy arm-side run

but can lack plane if Marquez drops his arm slot, which he does at times.

Marquez also has a plus curveball in the 76-81 mph range that has a slurvy shape to it but bites hard and has solid depth.

A back-foot curveball is the best weapon Marquez has against left-handed pitching right now, as his changeup is still

below average. But Marquez is just 21 and his delivery is loose and fluid so there’s likely more coming from the changeup.

Marquez’s command elicits similarly bullish projection because of the delivery and athleticism and he’s already throwing

plenty of strikes. He’s a relatively low-risk mid-rotation arm, an above-average major-league starter.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 4.8 WAR

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50 FV Prospects

5. Raimel Tapia, CF

Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2010 from Dominican Republic

Age 23 Height 6’2 Weight 160 Bat/Throw L/L

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw

50/60 45/50 30/40 60/60 40/50 55/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Recorded strikeout rate below 11% at both Double- and Triple-A in 2016.

Scouting Report

Tapia is one of the more entertaining player in the minor leagues because of his aggressive approach and funky pre-

swing rituals. Of note, Tapia goes into an extreme crouch with two strikes, something for which I have an analytical

disdain. We’ve explored the impact of altering eye level here before, and I’m flummoxed as to why Tapia essentially

volunteers to do it to himself. Indeed, I am a bit lower on Tapia than my sources for this reason, among others.

Scouts with whom I’ve spoken have plus or better grades on Tapia’s bat. He has sublime bat control and can either spoil

or barrel just about any type of pitch in any location. I think Tapia extends early, which creates length to the ball, and that

his ability to hit just about everything has led him to, you guessed it, try to hit everything. His walk rate has been anemic

throughout his minor-league career.

Perhaps the most important aspect of Tapia’s profile is where he’ll ultimately fall on the defensive spectrum. He has 45

raw power right now and will probably have 50 raw at maturity, but his in-game approach is far more contact oriented and

ground-ball heavy. He’ll likely max out at 40 game power. In a corner-outfield spot that won’t play, but it’d be fine in center

field. As for his future in center, most scouts think Tapia will be average there at peak, as Tapia, though not particularly

smooth, is a plus runner underway. I’m not sure it’s going to be enough to play in a big center field like Coors.

Despite my skepticism about the actualization of Tapia’s tools in the big leagues, he’s objectively likely to make some kind

of major-league impact. At the very worst, he’s a relatively punchless .280 hitter who plays an above-average defensive

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corner outfield. Matt Szczur did that in 2016 and produced 0.7 WAR in just 100 at-bats. A full season of worst-case Tapia

is probably a 45 on the scale and, while I think that’s in play as a Coors-independent outcome, the universal love of Tapia

from my sources has buoyed his standing in my rankings. If he can either play center field or show more power/on-base

ability than he has in the minors, then he’s an average regular.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 6.8 WAR

6. Kyle Freeland, LHP

Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Evansville

Age 24 Height 6’3 Weight 170 Bat/Throw L/L

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

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Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command

50/55 55/60 40/40 45/50 55/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Threw 72 innings in 2015, 162 in 2016.

Scouting Report

Freeland missed a huge chunk of the 2015 season dealing with bone chips in his elbow and shoulder fatigue, and he

looked bad in the Fall League when he returned, showing a mess of 45- and 50-grade pitches with fringe command.

Freeland’s command is his finest attribute, garnering some future plus-plus grades from scouts. It allows him to get the

most out of what is a deep but relatively pedestrian repertoire. His fastball sits in the low 90s with average downhill plane.

His upper-80s slider is short and cutterish, but Freeland locates it very well to his glove side both to left- and right-handed

hitters and it projects as plus at maturity.

Projection on Freeland’s changeup is limited because of the length in his arm action, but he maintains his fastball’s arm

speed when he throws it and it could grow to average. His low-80s curveball is a fringe-average change of pace on his

slider that works situationally. Lots of big leaguers have had per-pitch success on well-sequenced breaking balls, even if

they’re not plus, and Freeland likely will as well. Reports peg Freeland as a No. 3 or 4 starter, with most placing him on

the low end of the range.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.6 WAR

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45 FV Prospects

7. Pedro Gonzalez, CF

Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic

Age 19 Height 6’3 Weight 160 Bat/Throw R/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding

20/45 40/60 20/50 40/40 40/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Recorded 25 extra-base hits in 58 Pioneer League games after promotion from DSL.

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Scouting Report

Signed for $1.3 million on the international free-agent market in 2014, Gonzalez has already converted from shortstop to

center field, where his precocious instincts have impressed scouts. A below-average runner from home to first, Gonzalez

is a plus runner underway and his gargantuan strides cover plenty of ground in center field right now.

He has incredible physical projection. The on-paper measureables alone indicate this, but the breadth of Gonzalez’s

shoulders and the size of his hands are particularly stunning. I’m setting the over/under on Gonzalez’s prime weight at

230. For reference, Jayson Werth is 6-foot-5, 235. There’s a chance Gonzalez can retain the speed for center field at

that weight and his surprising instincts for center field give him some margin for error down the line in that regard.

With that weight should come big raw power. Gonzalez isn’t making loud contact right now but he has loose wrists, some

natural opposite-field ability and picturesque loft and extension through his swing. There’s a chance for plus raw power at

peak.

Of course, with levers this long, there are holes in the swing. Gonzalez has shown some ability to adjust his hands but is a

long way from being able to punish velocity on the inner half. His breaking-ball recognition was spotty during instructs.

Because the future of his hit tool is quite volatile, so is Gonzalez’s overall profile. He’s a potential star but light years from

the majors. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.1 WAR

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8. Miguel Castro, RHP Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Dominican Republic

Age 22 Height 6’5 Weight 190 Bat/Throw R/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Fastball Slider Changeup Command

70/80 50/60 40/45 30/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Changeup usage dropped from 17% in 2015 to 5% in 2016.

Scouting Report

While he’s had struggles in parts of two big-league seasons, Castro remains a physically projectable 21-year-old with an

upper-90s fastball and wipeout slider. He began 2016 with eight strong innings before he was shelved with shoulder

inflammation in late April. He required a second DL stint in August.

When healthy, Castro sits 96-99 and touches 100 with a plus-flashing slider in the 82-85 mph range. His fastball plays up

against right-handed hitters because of Castro’s arm slot and the extension in his delivery. Castro doesn’t routinely throw

a changeup, nor does he consistently command his fastball/slider combination but he’s a lanky 6-foot-5 and just 21 years

old, so control issues shouldn’t be all that shocking. He could develop average command in time.

Considering the cocktail of command issues, injury issues and lack of a third pitch, it might be too ambitious to attempt to

rebuild Castro as a starter. There’s late-inning stuff here if he can get healthy. Castro was acquired from Toronto as part

of the Troy Tulowitzki trade.

9. Tom Murphy, C Drafted: 3rd Round, 2012 from Buffalo

Age 26 Height 6’1 Weight 220 Bat/Throw R/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw

35/40 60/60 50/50 30/20 40/40 50/50

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Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Posted .320 ISO at Triple-A in 2016.

Scouting Report

If Murphy can just be passable behind the plate, he’ll be an everyday player, as he generates plus power to all fields on

contact. Murphy doesn’t present pitchers with a great target and is a below-average receiver and ball-blocker, but he does

have an average arm and isn’t fatally atrocious at any aspect of catching. Catchers worse than this have seen regular

time behind the plate in recent years and some of them don’t have the power and approach that Murphy does.

Murphy’s swing is simple but stiff and he whiffs quite a bit, posting strikeout rates of 25% or more in each of the last three

seasons. He has impact power on contact, though, and has enough raw strength to muscle out 20-plus homers annually.

If Murphy can post OBPs around .315 with that kind of power and remain at catcher, then he’ll be a fringe-average regular

at least.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 3.3 WAR

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10. Forrest Wall, 2B/OF

Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Orangewood Christian HS (FL)

Age 21 Height 6’0 Weight 176 Bat/Throw L/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw

30/60 40/45 30/40 40/40 40/50 40/40

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Has recorded lower slugging percentage at each successive level, down to .355 at Low-A Asheville this year.

Scouting Report

Wall had one of the most advanced prep bats in the 2014 draft but was limited to, at best, second base at the time

because a serious shoulder injury sapped him of arm strength. He spent all of 2016 at second base but saw time in center

field during instructional league. His feel for center is not good right now, and his arm strength remains below average.

Once a plus runner, Wall was average during the year according to scouts with whom I’ve spoken and was below average

during instructional league. I consider it unlikely for him to stick in center, but because it’s so new I think it’s unwise to say

that definitively.

Despite lacking a defensive home about which scouts are enthused, Wall’s impressive bat-to-ball skills remain. He tracks

well, is short to the ball, has good bat control and solid-average bat speed. He has fringe raw power and can tap into it

during games when he turns on balls down and in, but it generally plays down due to a contact-heavy approach.

If the power spike across baseball (and especially at second base) holds firm, then it will take every bit of bat-to-ball Wall

has in the tank for him to profile as a regular there. If he looks much better in center field next spring and can somehow

play there, that would significantly increase his chances of providing big-league value down the line. I’m betting on the bat,

because it is rather special, but something else needs to develop.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.4 WAR

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11. Ryan Castellani, RHP Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Brophy Prep (AZ)

Age 21 Height 6’4 Weight 195 Bat/Throw R/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Fastball Slider Changeup Command

60/60 50/55 50/55 40/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Allowed 0.43 HR/9 in 26 Cal League starts.

Scouting Report

Perhaps the most polarizing player out of all the prospects I’ve covered so far, Castellani elicited anything between No. 3

and 5 starter projections from scouts with whom I spoke. His delivery has been compared to that of Max Scherzer and

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Castellani’s rubbery arm action generates big movement on a 92-94 mph fastball that will touch above that. With the

movement factored in, it’s a comfortably plus pitch. He flashes an above-average slider and has shown an ability to throw

it both in the strike zone and in the dirt to his glove side. Despite the perceived ugliness in Castellani’s delivery, his arm is

quite loose and the action is short. I think there’s quite a bit of changeup projection here as well.

The delivery has some violence about the head in addition to the funky arm action. Not everyone loves it but, from a

command perspective, I think it works fine. He was gently used during his first two years of pro ball and hasn’t had any

reported health issues yet. The body has little projection but isn’t bad. I don’t expect to see more velocity than is already

present, especially as the work load increases. I think Castellani has a good shot at being a league-average starter. He

could begin 2017 at Double-A.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 3.9 WAR

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12. Ben Bowden, LHP

Video Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Vanderbilt

Age 22 Height 6’3 Weight 252 Bat/Throw L/L

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Fastball Slider Changeup Command

55/60 40/45 55/60 40/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Recorded 65 strikeouts in 48.2 innings for Vanderbilt in 2016.

Scouting Report

Having spent the lion’s share of his career at Vanderbilt in relief, Bowden has a relatively fresh arm. He made five mostly

mediocre starts mid-year for Vanderbilt before kicking back into the bullpen, where he finished the year. He pumps mid-

90s gas with downhill plane and has a workhorse body but the quality of the repertoire suppresses enthusiasm about

Bowden’s chances of starting in pro ball. His changeup flashes above average and could be plus at peak, but the slider

would do well just to get to average and it may only play against lefties at the upper levels. The fastball/changeup combo

should play in a relief role, but moving Bowden into a minor-league rotation to start 2017 allows Colorado to give it a

chance to take and also allows Bowden’s pitches to get more reps than they would in a relief role. I ultimately expect

Bowden to become a fastball/changeup reliever, and think it plays in a setup role.

13. Yency Almonte, RHP Drafted: 17th Round, 2012 from Columbia HS (FL)

Age 23 Height 6’3 Weight 185 Bat/Throw S/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Fastball Slider Changeup Command

55/60 50/55 40/50 40/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Recorded 134 strikeouts in 138 Cal League innings in 2016.

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Scouting Report

Almonte has already been traded twice, once from Anaheim (who drafted him) to Chicago in exchange for Gordon

Beckham and then from the White Sox to Colorado in the Tommy Kahnle deal. His velocity has ticked up into the mid-

90s, mostly 93-95. His average slider has middling length, but it’s hard, in the 82-86 range, and Almonte has begun

locating it both out of the zone and within it where it plays better than a slider in the low 80s. Almonte has flashed average

changeups throughout his minor-league career but consistent feel for maintaining his arm speed and placing the pitch in a

competitive location have eluded him. It still projects as average, but Almonte turns 23 next June and if it doesn’t come

soon it might be time to consider adding a pitch to deal with lefties.

Almonte profiles as a No. 4 or 5 starter. There’s a chance for more if he can outperform my changeup or command

projections.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.1 WAR

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40 FV Prospects

14. Pete Lambert, RHP

Video Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from San Dimas HS (CA)

Age 20 Height 6’2 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command

45/50 45/50 45/50 50/55 40/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Posted a 6% walk rate in Low-A at age 19 this season.

Scouting Report

Lambert deploys average stuff with mature sequencing. He pitched well in the South Atlantic League this year at nearly

three years younger than the average Sally Leaguer. He’ll sit 88-92 and touch 93 or 94 with plane, but very little horizontal

movement, because of Lambert’s vertical arm slot. He’s able to command all of his pitches to both sides of the plate

despite a little bit of a head whack. The delivery is simple and lacks explosion, but it works fine and allows Lambert to

pound the strike zone.

While he deploys four pitches, the pitch with the most projection is the changeup. It’s already average and Lambert

locates and sequences it beautifully, at times running it back onto the outside corner against right-handed hitters. He also

has a low-80s fringe-average slider and a loopy, below-average curveball in his utility belt. Neither projects as a plus pitch,

but they’re effective in concert with the rest of the repertoire.

Lambert’s body has very little projection. He’s a well-built 6-foot-2, but there isn’t room for much more. I don’t anticipate

more velocity coming, and Lambert’s future will probably be heavily dictated by whether or not one of his breaking balls

takes a step forward. He has an outside shot at plus-plus command as well. He profiles as more of a fifth starter.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.7 WAR

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15. Ryan McMahon, 1B

Video Drafted: 2nd Round, 2013 from Mater Dei HS (CA)

Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 185 Bat/Throw L/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw

30/40 60/60 40/50 30/30 40/45 55/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Recorded 30% strikeout rate in the Eastern League in 2016.

Scouting Report

Scouts to whom I’ve spoken regarding McMahon can’t escape his tantalizing power. He has a gorgeous left-handed swing

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with natural loft and when McMahon connects he hits some of the prettiest home runs you’ll see. These pyrite parabolas

distract from swing-and-miss issues that, based on my Fall League looks, are potentially fatal to McMahon’s prospectdom.

McMahon’s strikeout rate at Double-A this year was alarming, as was his drop in power production, and his woes have

continued here in Arizona this fall. He doesn’t track well and often fouls off punishable pitches in the middle of the zone.

He has 60 raw power and, while the length in McMahon’s swing makes it hard for him to get the bat head there

consistently, if he catches anything down and in it’s sent into orbit. He golfed out an inside slider during the Fall Stars

game (his only home run of Fall League play).

Defensively, McMahon’s transition to first base outwardly seems like it’s being made to find a spot for McMahon in a big-

league lineup that includes the godlike Nolan Arenado, but most scouts think he’ll end up there simply because he isn’t

very good at third. Proponents cite the heavy move to first base as the chief reason for the struggles at the plate. Others

think the issues that plagued Double-A Hartford this year (they played all of their games on the road) had something to do

with it. I just don’t think McMahon is going to hit which, suffice to say, will make it hard to profile at first base. He could be

a buy-low throw-in target for teams that still believe, because plenty of scouts still like this guy.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.8 WAR

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16. Sam Howard, LHP Drafted: 3rd Round, 2014 from Georgia Southern

Age 24 Height 6’3 Weight 170 Bat/Throw R/L

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Fastball Slider Changeup Command

50/50 50/55 45/50 45/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Recorded 27% strikeout rate in Cal League in 2016.

Scouting Report

Howard repeats a fairly easy three-quarters delivery and produces a 90-93 mph fastball. His mid-80s slider is above

average but scouts are skeptical about the future of the changeup, which was better with increased usage in 2016 but is

still just fringe average. Howard turns 24 in March and it’s still likely that he becomes a fastball/slider reliever, but the

changeup showed enough progression in 2016 that we can hold out hope for a back-end role.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.4 WAR

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17. Tyler Nevin, 3B Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from Poway HS (CA)

Age 20 Height 6’4 Weight 200 Bat/Throw R/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw

30/45 45/55 30/50 30/30 30/40 50/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

None, played one game due to hamstring injury.

Scouting Report

Nevin’s 2016 was lost due to injury. Scouts who saw him during spring training liked the bat speed, thought he had plus

raw power projection and a chance to be an average defender at third base, provided he could add a half grade of arm

strength into his 20s. We’ll have to see if Nevin’s severe hamstring injury will have lasting effects on what was already a

fringey defensive profile next spring. He’s a potentially average regular who is far away from the majors and now has

health questions to answer.

18. Dom Nunez, C Drafted: 6th Round, 2013 from Elk Grove HS (CA)

Age 22 Height 6’0 Weight 175 Bat/Throw L/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw

30/45 40/45 30/40 30/30 40/45 45/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Has posted sub-.300 BABIPs each of the last two years

Scouting Report

Nunez has modest across-the-board tools and a visually pleasing swing but a lack of bat speed and power on contact are

beginning to show in his performance. Nunez has some bat control and lift in his swing but hits mostly ground balls and

humpback liners, and as he’s moved up the minor-league ladder, fewer of those are falling in for hits. Nunez has a fringe-

average arm and spotty but inoffensive receiving and ball-blocking skills. He could be an average defender at peak. It’s a

backup profile unless the body provides more power down the line.

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KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.9 WAR

19. Robert Tyler, RHP Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Georgia

Age 22 Height 6’4 Weight 215 Bat/Throw L/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Fastball Curveball Changeup Command

60/60 40/45 55/60 30/40

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Recorded 89 strikeouts, 46 walks over 74.2 innings at Georgia in 2016.

Scouting Report

This is the type of prospect who sparks discussion about curveball projection among scouts. Tyler doesn’t have a good

one, throws mid-90s fastball, and flashes a plus changeup. If Tyler were to develop even an average curveball he’d

instantly become a potential mid-rotation starter based on his stuff. But most scouts think that pitchers, especially college

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pitchers, either have a good breaking ball or they don’t and Tyler’s feel for his is very inconsistent. Tyler’s two-pitch mix is

better on pure stuff than Ben Bowden‘s but Tyler’s lack of command makes him considerably more risky in my opinion.

He walked 16 in 7.0 pro innings after signing. That’s not a typo. He projects as a volatile but potentially electric reliever.

20. Colton Welker, 1B/3B

Video Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from Stoneman Douglas HS (FL)

Age 19 Height 6’0 Weight 205 Bat/Throw R/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw

20/50 50/60 20/55 40/20 40/45 45/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Slashed .329/.366/.490 in Pioneer League after signing.

Scouting Report

Welker has a big, power hitter’s body with an uppercut swing and could have plus raw power at maturity. His overall

actions both offensively and defensively are stiff and he projects to first base for many. He’ll have the power to profile

there if he has to move. This stiffness in the swing concerns scouts, but Welker showed inelegant bat control in his pro

debut and scouts think he has a chance to hit for average. There’s extreme pressure on the bat, especially if Welker has

to move to first. He’s far from Denver, but there’s an average regular here if you squint hard enough.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.3 WAR

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21. Daniel Montano, CF

Video

Age 18 Height 6’1 Weight 170 Bat/Throw L/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw

20/50 40/55 20/45 50/55 40/50 40/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

None, played in DSL in 2016.

Scouting Report

Montano got $2 million from Colorado in 2015 as a bat-first center fielder with a short but wide-shouldered frame.

Montano has feel for airborne contact and his in-game hitters timing is advanced for his age. He hit well in the DSL this

year and has begun to grow into some power while presently retaining enough speed to continue giving things a try in

center field. If he fills outs and has to move to a corner it will likely be left field, as his arm is currently below average.

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22. Garrett Hampson, SS

Video Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Long Beach St

Age 22 Height 5’11 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw

40/50 40/40 20/30 60/60 40/45 50/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Slashed .301/.412/.441 in Northwest League after signing. Was +12 defender at shortstop per Clay Davenport

Scouting Report

Hampson brought an advanced bat to Long Beach State and made the Team USA Collegiate National Team as an

underclassman. He made little progress during his career there though and, by the time he was draft eligible, scouts were

wondering if he’d be able to stay at shortstop in pro ball. Hampson will need to be able to play shortstop at least part time

to profile as a big leaguer because his power output doesn’t play anywhere else. He’s a plus runner and has the range for

short but the arm strength might not play on the left side of the infield. Hampson projects for 30 game power. He’s thick in

the shoulders and torso but his forearms are quite small, his wrists are stiff through contact, and he doesn’t produce much

power. He has a utility ceiling. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.2 WAR

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23. Julian Fernandez, RHP

Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic

Age 21 Height 6’2 Weight 160 Bat/Throw R/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Fastball Slider Changeup Command

70/80 40/50 40/55 30/40

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Had 1.17 ERA at Low-A despite walk rate just below 20%.

Scouting Report

Fernandez can’t do much else right now, but he’s incredibly loose, athletic and touches 102. His arm action and

acceleration are incredible and he was up to 99 during instructional league. He has an upper-80s slider and changeup.

Both are well below average, as is his command. Only one of the secondaries needs to come along for Fernandez to

profile as a late-inning reliever. His ceiling is obviously higher than that.

24. Jordan Patterson, OF/1B

Video Drafted: 4th Round, 2013 from South Alabama

Age 25 Height 6’4 Weight 215 Bat/Throw L/L

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw

40/40 55/55 40/45 45/40 45/50 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Produced .903 OPS against right-handers in 2016. Saved 15 runs in right field at Triple-A per Clay Davenport

Scouting Report

Patterson’s lever length creates too much swing and miss for him to profile in a corner-outfield spot and he doesn’t run

well enough for center field. He mashes righties, though, and should find consistent employment as the larger half of a

platoon in either outfield corner. He can also play first base.

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KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.1 WAR

Noteworthy Mahalanobis Comps for 40+ FV Prospects Rk Name Most Noteworthy Comp

1 Brendan Rodgers Julio Lugo

3 Jeff Hoffman Cal Eldred

4 German Marquez Randy Wolf

5 Raimel Tapia Grady Sizemore

6 Kyle Freeland Rick Helling

7 Pedro Gonzalez Rob Stratton

9 Tom Murphy Craig Wilson

10 Forrest Wall Ryan Freel

11 Ryan Castellani Freddy Garcia

13 Yency Almonte Gary Knotts

15 Ryan McMahon Casey McGehee

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16 Sam Howard Mitchell Boggs

18 Dom Nunez Ramon Castro

20 Colton Welker Edwin Encarnacion

22 Garrett Hampson Jason Bartlett

24 Jordan Patterson Raul Ibanez

*****

Other Prospects of Note (In Order of Preference)

Pat Valaika, UTIL, 2.2 KATOH+ WAR – A 50 runner with a 45 arm, Valaika is fundamentally sound but doesn’t have the

physical tools for shortstop. He has excellent bat-to-ball skills but produces little power. He has an up-and-down utility

profile.

Antonio Senzatela, RHP – His fastball/slider combination brought him to Double-A by age-21 but Senzatela lost most of

2016 to shoulder inflammation. Many considered him a future reliever prior to the injury, an opinion reinforced by the risk-

averse nature of evaluators who’d cash in Senzatela as a middle reliever as soon as possible.

David Hill, RHP, 1.1 KATOH+ – Hill was ridden hard at San Diego, including a 147-pitch complete game against Loyola

Marymount as a junior. He has average across the board stuff, sitting mostly 89-92 with some run, three middling

secondary offerings and a bulldog mentality to pitching. He could be a back-end starter but nothing about the repertoire

suggests he’ll miss bats like he did this year moving forward.

Brian Mundell, 1B, 0.1 KATOH+ – Mundell’s minimalist swing somehow produces above-average raw power and its

simplicity allows for plenty of contact. This is first-base only and neither the hit nor power tools projects to plus so many

are projecting a Quad-A hitter in Mundell, but if he keeps hitting he’ll wear a big-league uniform.

Jose Gomez, SS, 2.8 KATOH+ – A stocky 5-foot-11, Gomez is an average runner with an average arm and could be a 45

or 50 at shortstop at maturity. He has mature bat-to-ball skills and hit well for his age in the Pioneer League this year but

lacks power projection because the body is already pretty maxed out. He’s got a long-term utility profile.

Wes Rogers, CF, 2.1 KATOH+ – Rogers possesses excellent secondary skills, is a plus runner with a projectable frame

and a chance to play center field, but his hitting actions are very raw. He has substantial upside but the feel to hit is raw,

especially for a 22-year-old. He projects as a fourth outfielder, but if the swing comes together he has a chance for more.

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Javier Medina, RHP – An advanced high school righty with four pitches, Medina missed much of 2016 due to injury. His

fastball sits in the low 90s when he’s healthy and he could have an above-average changeup down the line.

Mike Nikorak, RHP – Nikorak was once a potential top-10 pick, as his velo and curveball both looked incredible during

his showcase summer. By the next spring his stuff has ticked down and he was outpitched by other prep arms in Eastern

Pennsylvania down the stretch, most notably ASU lefty Connor Higgins. Nikorak has struggled to throw strikes in pro ball.

He was 88-91 during instructional league in 2015 and was 87-92 this spring. Colorado has been working to improve his

arm action.

Cistulli’s Guy

Selected by Carson Cistulli from any player who received less than a 40 FV.

Mike Tauchman, OF, 1.4 KATOH+

This represents the third consecutive year in which Tauchman has appeared as Cistulli’s Guy on Colorado’s

organizational list. Little has changed, really. He still lacks the sort of tools which would inspire a lead prospect analyst to

assign him a future value of 40 or higher. He still also continues to possess a skill set that could have some value to a

major-league club.

Like he did at Double-A in 2015 and High-A the year before that, Tacuhman recorded promising walk and strikeout figures

this year (7.6% and 14.6%, respectively) — in this case, with Triple-A Albuquerque. Also for the second consecutive year,

he produced average-or-better defensive numbers in center according to Clay Davenport’s data.

On paper, Tauchman bears a considerable resemblance to a player already employed by the Rockies — namely, DJ

LeMahieu. LeMahieu had, of course, already played a couple seasons by Tauchman’s age. As for the basic profiles,

though — high contact, little power, strong defense — they’re entirely comparable.

*****

System Overview

Like a really good cheese, Colorado’s system is both interesting and complex. By no means is this a marquee system, but

it is excellent and, in my opinion, underrated. Prospects with 55 FV figures typically fall within the top 75 or so in all of

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baseball, which means the Rockies could have four players in that range when my offseason duties are complete. Pint’s

upside will likely place him near the top of that tier.

Beyond the the top guys, the system is also littered with hard-throwing arms, many of whom (Matt Carasiti, Sal

Justo, Zach Jemiola (0.8 KATOH+), Alexander Guillen, Rayan Gonzalez (0.2 KATOH+), Shane Carle (1.8 KATOH+))

project as middle relievers who could impact the big club a bit but lacked the upside to mention above. They’ve also made

considerable hay in Latin America, not only with the high-upside outfielders they have in Pedro Gonzalez, Julian

Fernandez and Daniel Montano but also with interesting mid-level signings like bat-first outfielder Yeikel Blandin and

strike-throwing lefty Luis Noguera. This system might look beefier by the spring if Colorado moves one of their outfielders

for more young help on the farm, and they have the 11th overall pick in next year’s draft.