Media and Entertainmentassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · Profitability in media and...
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Media and Entertainment:
The Fight for Consumers’ Time and Money
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Growth in media and entertainment
EBITDA CAGR between 2006 and 2010
Source: Ernst & Young report “Spotlight on profitable growth – Media & Entertainment, Volume III”.
15% 14%
10% 10% 9%7%
3%
-1%-4% -5%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
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Profitability in media and entertainment
Average EBITDA margin percentage between 2006 and 2010
Source: Ernst & Young report “Spotlight on profitable growth – Media & Entertainment, Volume III”.
38%35%
31%27%
20% 19% 18%
11% 11% 11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
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Growth in media and entertainment vs. stock indices
EBITDA CAGR between 2006 and 2009
* The ten sectors of the media and entertainment industry measured by Ernst & Young consisting of cable operators, interactive media, cable networks, satellite television,
publishing, conglomerates, television broadcast, film and television production, electronic games and music.
Source: Ernst & Young report “Spotlight on profitable growth – Media & Entertainment, Volume III”.
5%
-5% -5%
-13% -14%-17%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
E&M* CAC 40 Nikkei S&P 500 DAX 30 FTSE 100M&E*
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Profitability in media and entertainment
vs. stock indices
Average EBITDA margin percentage between 2006 and 2009
* The ten sectors of the media and entertainment industry measured by Ernst & Young consisting of cable operators, interactive media, cable networks, satellite television,
publishing, conglomerates, television broadcast, film and television production, electronic games and music.
Source: Ernst & Young report “Spotlight on profitable growth – Media & Entertainment, Volume III”.
23%22% 22%
17%16%
13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
E&M* S&P 500 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX 30 NikkeiM&E*
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Global TV subscriptions - market components
Percentage CAGR 2011 to 2015
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
51.6%
25.1%
13.6%
7.6%
-0.2%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Over-the-top Mobile TV Video-on-demand Subscriptions Pay-per-view
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Global TV subscriptions - regional growth
Percentage CAGR 2011 to 2015
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
12.5% 12.1%
7.5%
5.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Latin America Asia Pacific EMEA North America
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Global TV advertising
Percentage share by component 2010 and 2015
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
Terrestrial,
69.9%
Multichannel,
27.9%
Online,
1.8%
Mobile,
0.4%
2010
Terrestrial,
64.8%
Multichannel,
30.4%
Online,
3.6%
Mobile,
1.3%
2015 (projection)
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Global entertainment spending
Digital vs. non-digital percentage change 2010 to 2015
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
Non-digital,
74%
Digital,
26%
2010 2015
Non-digital,
66%
Digital,
34%
2015 (projection)
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Newspaper circulation growth worldwide
Global paid-for daily newspaper, 2008 to 2009 and 2004 to 2009
Source: World Association of Newspapers and News Publishers' (WAN-IFRA) annual world press trends 2010.
1-year growth (2008 to 2009) 5-year growth (2004 to 2009)
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
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Newspaper titles growth worldwide
Daily newspaper titles, 2008 to 2009
Source: World Association of Newspapers and News Publishers' (WAN-IFRA) annual world press trends 2010.
2.7%
1.3%1.0%
0.2%0.0% 0.0%
1.7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
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Five largest markets for newspapers
Average number of copies sold daily in 2009, millions
Source: World Association of Newspapers and News Publishers' (WAN-IFRA) annual world press trends 2010.
110 109
50 46
20
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
India China Japan United States Germany
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E-books: A skyrocketing market Trade wholesale electronic book sales, United States
Sources: Amazon, International Digital Publishing Forum.
Q3 2010 = $119.7 million
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1 02
Q1 03
Q1 04
Q1 05
Q1 06
Q1 07
Q1 08
Q1 09
Q1 10
US$ millions
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent Desktop sales Notebook/laptop sales Netbook/mini PC sales Tablet PC sales
Tablets will take 1 in 4 PC sales by 2015 Percentage of PC unit sales, United States
Source: Forrester Research eReader Forecast, GigaOM.
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Mobile behaviors in Japan, U.S., and Europe
By percent of total mobile audience, 2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Accessed social
networking
site/blog
Listened to music on
mobile phone
Captured video
Watched TV and/or video
on mobile
phone
Played games
Japan U.S. Europe
Sources: comScore MobiLens, June 2010, Japan, United States, and EU5 (UK, DE, FR, ES, and IT).
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Smartphones surpass global PC shipments
for the first time in history
63.7 66.3
80.889.6
83.2
66
89.7 92.1
34.941.9 42.8
53.9 54.763
81.1
100.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010
Million
PC shipments Smartphone shipments
Source: International Data Corp.
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Number of mobile-only Internet users
expected to climb significantly
Source: eMarketer, Cisco VNI Mobile.
400505
657
860
1,135
1,413
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Million Mobile Internet users
Global
U.S.
1432
79 188
487
788
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Million Mobile-only Internet users
Global
North America
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Globalization of media and entertainment
Viacom revenue distribution between U.S. and international
Source: Viacom annual reports from 2006 to 2010.
78% 76% 71% 72% 72%
22% 24% 29% 28% 28%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Domestic Foreign
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Globalization of media and entertainment
News Corp. revenue distribution between U.S. and international
Source: News Corp. annual reports from 2006 to 2010.
54% 53% 50% 53% 53%
46% 47% 50% 47% 47%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Domestic Foreign
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77% 77% 75% 76% 74%
23% 23% 25% 24% 26%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Domestic Foreign
Globalization of media and entertainment
Disney revenue distribution between U.S. and international
Source: Disney annual reports from 2006 to 2010.
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Sources: Michael Schwirtz, “Home of the Mouse Finds Box Office Success in the Land of the Bear”, New York Times, Nov 2009. John Hopewell, “Brazilian co-prods boom as int'l
partners get real,” Variety, May 2011. Karen Chu, “Fox Filmed Entertainment's Jim Gianopulos: 'Theft' Is the Film Industry's Biggest Problem”, Hollywood Report, June 2011.
• Domestic films grew to 25 percent of the Russian market in 2008 from
4 percent at the start of the decade.
• Disney made a first attempt at a film specifically for a Russian-speaking
audience with a Russian cast and Russian writers, directors and producers.
• The film reflects a new reality at Disney and in Hollywood generally that
dubbed American blockbusters are no longer enough to maintain a foothold in
lucrative foreign markets.
• The approximately 80 Brazilian films (including international co-productions)
released in 2009 accounted for 15 percent of the local market, a 50 percent
increase compared to 2008.
Effect of globalization on creative direction
The rise of local content, Russia and Brazil
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Sources: Michael Schwirtz, “Home of the Mouse Finds Box Office Success in the Land of the Bear”, New York Times, Nov 2009. John Hopewell, “Brazilian co-prods boom as int'l
partners get real,” Variety, May 2011. Karen Chu, “Fox Filmed Entertainment's Jim Gianopulos: 'Theft' Is the Film Industry's Biggest Problem”, Hollywood Report, June 2011.
Effect of globalization on creative direction
The rise of local content, China and India
• Fox International Productions is co-financing and co-creating foreign-
language films for local audiences, like “My Name Is Khan” in India and
“Hot Summer Days” in China.
• “… our local production in China was the number one film in China on
the same weekend our local film was the number one film in India… So
we’d like to continue our local strategy in… markets around the world
that have high quality local filmmaking talents, and an audience that is
hungry for films that reflect their culture," Fox Filmed Entertainment
chairman Jim Gianopulos.
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Innovations in technology & business models
Online streaming: Netflix
Source: Panos Mourdoukoutas, “What is wrong with Netflix's business model?”, Forbes, September 2011.
• Netflix is a home entertainment service provider that currently distributes via DVDs and online
streaming (similar to LoveFilm in Europe).
• The Netflix business model is profitable in the short run particularly because it does not have high
costs of ownership (e.g. production facilities, warehouses).
• The company’s stock was doing phenomenally will in the previous 2 years (until recent missteps),
powered by a push towards streaming, however…
• Its recent contract negotiations proved who has the upper hand in the video streaming
business: Content providers.
• Content providers can sell their content directly to consumers or sell it to the highest bidder.
As streaming becomes the norm due to adequate Internet speeds, how will business models
evolve to optimally monetize the value chain for both content and service providers?
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Innovations in technology & business models
Platform-agnostic entertainment: iCloud
Source: “Apple Introduces iCloud”, Apple, June 2011. Ethan Smith, "Disney Touts a Way to Ditch the DVD“, WSJ, November 2009.
• Cloud computing is where computing is provided as a
service rather than a product.
• Apple will be one of the leading providers of this service
via iCloud, which will work seamlessly with applications
on iPhones, iPads, iPod touches, Macs or PC’s.
• Disney also plans to launch a similar service
specifically for VOD called Keychest, with a goal
of providing digital media to customers through
any Internet-enabled device.
As entertainment becomes platform-agnostic, what is
the optimal business model for service providers to
cater for consumers’ needs while compensating content
providers previously individual platform rights?
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Live Nation Entertainment
Live event attendance
Source: Live Nation Entertainment annual reports.
64
5752
47
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007 2008 2009 2010
Number of attendees, millions
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Notes: Artist Nation segment primarily provides management services to music recording artists in exchange for a commission on the earnings of these artists,
eCommerce manages our consumer websites.
Source: Live Nation Entertainment annual reports.
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Concerts Ticketing Artist Nation eCommerce Sponsorship
2008 2009 2010Profit, US$m
Live Nation Entertainment
Operating profits by segment
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Top-grossing films Worldwide, 2010
Source: Box Office Mojo.
Rank
Film
Gross earnings
(US$ millions)
Domestic
(% earnings)
Overseas
(% earnings)
1 Toy Story 3 $1,063.2 39.0 61.0
2 Alice in Wonderland $1,024.3 32.6 67.4
3 Harry Potter and the Deathly
Hallows Part 1 $953.0 31.0 69.0
4 Inception $825.5 35.4 64.6
5 Shrek Forever After $752.6 31.7 68.3
6 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse $698.5 43.0 57.0
7 Iron Man 2 $622.1 50.2 49.8
8 Tangled $576.5 34.6 65.4
9 Despicable Me $543.1 46.3 53.7
10 How to Train Your Dragon $494.9 44.0 56.0
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Top-grossing films United States, 2010
Source: Box Office Mojo.
Rank
Film
Gross earnings
(US$ millions)
1 Toy Story 3 $415.0
2 Alice in Wonderland $334.2
3 Iron Man 2 $312.4
4 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse $300.5
5 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Part 1 $295.0
6 Inception $292.6
7 Despicable Me $251.5
8 Shrek Forever After $238.7
9 How to Train Your Dragon $217.6
10 Tangled $199.6
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Top-grossing films Outside of United States, 2010
Source: Box Office Mojo.
Rank Film Gross earnings
(US$ millions)
1 Alice in Wonderland $690.1
2 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Part 1 $658.0
3 Toy Story 3 $648.2
4 Inception $533.0
5 Shrek Forever After $513.9
6 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse $398.0
7 Tangled $376.9
8 Clash of the Titans $330.0
9 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage
of the Dawn Treader $310.3
10 Iron Man 2 $309.6
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Top-grossing films of all time Worldwide
Source: Box Office Mojo.
Rank Film Gross earnings
(US$ millions)
Domestic
(% earnings)
Overseas
(% earnings)
1 Avatar (2009) $2,782 27.3% 72.7%
2 Titanic (1997) $1,843 32.6% 67.4%
3 The Lord of the Rings:
The Return of the King (2003) $1,119 33.7% 66.3%
4 Pirates of the Caribbean:
Dead Man's Chest (2006) $1,066 39.7% 60.3%
5 Toy Story 3 (2010) $1,063 39.0% 61.0%
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Video streaming YouTube statistics
Source: ReelSEO.com.
• 35 hours of video footage is uploaded to the site every minute.
• Over 13 million hours of footage were uploaded in 2010.
• More video is uploaded every 60 days than the three major U.S. television
networks produced in 60 years.
• Each week, YouTube receives the equivalent of 115,000 full-length feature
films in uploads.
• 70% of YouTube traffic comes from outside the U.S.
• The base age demographic for YouTube is 18-54.
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Piracy figures
Source: The Directors Guild of America, Peer Media Technology.
• Video will make up 90% of all Internet traffic in 2013
• Wireless data traffic will increase 131% per year through 2013
• File-sharing accounts for almost 28% of all Internet traffic, and
of that amount, almost 18% is television content.
• South Korea has seen a 95% decline in the home video market
since 2000, coinciding with increased broadband speeds
(5 times the average speed the U.S.)
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Market for home entertainment
North America, US$ billions
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Guen Associates.
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201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
22
20
18
16
14
12
US$ billions
Home entertainment rental and sell-through spending
United States
Source: Digital Entertainment Group.
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2013201220112010200920082007200620052004
26
24
22
20
18
16
US$ billions
Cable vs. network advertising market
United States
Sources: Canadian Radio-Television and Telecommunication Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky.
Network
Cable
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