MECC Syria Overview- April 2016

As we reached the sixth year of the Syrian crisis, recent efforts are being made to

stabilize the situation en route for finding a mutual vision for peace between conflicted

parties. The complexity of the situation and the difficult economic conditions led to an

increase in number of people in need (PiN). Many displaced and affected people fled from

Syria in search for peace but the majority remains in Syria. Most of them lack the basic

needs for living and are in constant need for support to overcome the difficult conditions

they are facing.

Political Overview

The cessation of hostilities that started on Saturday 27th of February and which is brokered

by UN-Russia-USA, is still holding and decreased violence has been noticed in several parts

of Syria except for Aleppo, where fighting has increased in the past month.

After the last round of Intra-Syrian talks stopped on March 24, de Mistura originally

scheduled the talks to resume on April 9 but they were pushed to April 11 and later

to April 13.

On Wednesday 13 April, Intra-Syrian peace talks in Geneva continued between the

Syrian government and opposition.

At the same time as the peace talks took place, parliamentary elections took place in

the government controlled areas in Syria. The elections were important to the Syrian

government as they demonstrate the sovereignty and independence of the Syrian

State. The elections were boycotted by the anti-Assad opposition and they were

backed by the western and Arab countries.

UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura said on April 18, that the Syrian opposition High

Negotiations Committee (HNC) informed him they will pause their participation in

formal negotiations at the United Nations, but have agreed to stay in Geneva and

resume negotiations if their demands were met. HNC demanded more progress to

humanitarian access in Syria and improvements in the cease-fire around Aleppo.

The Geneva talks that took place in April didn’t lead to any improvements in the

deteriorating situation and the talks were postponed to an unknown date but most

probably between 10-15 May with no confirmation yet.

UN Syria Envoy Staffan de Mistura has called for an “urgent initiative” by the United

States and Russia, including a ministerial meeting of the International Syria Support

Group, to re-establish a cessation of hostilities in Syria. While the UN envoy noted

“some progress” in the second round of proximity talks between the Syrian

government and opposition groups, he said that the next round would be

meaningful only if accompanied by a renewed cessation of violence.

Violence in Aleppo in April severely threatened a nationwide ceasefire between

President Bashar al-Assad's regime and opposition armed groups. More than 300

civilians were killed in two weeks of fighting in the divided city before the truce took

place on Thursday 5 May for 72 hours between the Syrian Government and

opposition groups.

Military Situation

After the cessation of hostilities that started on 27 February, the level of clashes

decreased overall in Syria between the Syrian government forces and opposition

forces except in the Governorate of Aleppo where major violations took place during

until the cessation was held between the two parties on May 5th.

During April, there were no major shifts in Areas controlled by different parties.

Armed groups especially Al Nusra front and ISIS tried to gain control of areas in

Aleppo.

Even though there were no shifts in the control of Areas, heavy clashes and shelling

took place in the Governorate of Aleppo especially in Khan Toman in the Southern

suburbs of Aleppo and in Al Rashdeen and Zahraa areas in the City of Aleppo.

More than 1000 mortar shells and Missiles hit the areas controlled by the Syrian

government in the City of Aleppo which forced civilians to stop their normal lives

due to the high number of casualties.

Even though IS and Al-Nusra are excluded from the truce, violence around Aleppo

has sparked concerns that the ceasefire may collapse, partly because rebels are

involved in the battles there too.

Heavy Clashes also took place in the Northern suburbs of Latakia, where Al Nusra

front attacked areas controlled by governmental forces but failed to do a major shift

point in the situation.

A truce took place on Thursday 5 May for 72 hours between the Syrian Government

and opposition groups in Aleppo and Latakia backed by Russia and the US to save

peace talks and the cessation of hostilities.

Economic Overview Official Current Exchange Rate SP/USD: 512 SP/USD Current Exchange Rate in Black Market: 600 SP/USD Exchange Rate in Black Market in March: 474 SP/USD

Despite the second month of ceasefire, the Syrian Pound Continues to drop. The Situation of the Syrian Pound is unstable; for the first time the exchange rate of the Syrian pound is over 600SP/$ in the black market, to reach 650 and drop back down to 600 SP/$.

In 2 months, the Syrian Pound depreciated by 28% from 430 to 600 SP/$, which left prices increasing significantly and decreased the purchasing power of Syrians. If the Situation of the Syrian Pound continues to depreciate on the same pace, we are on a verge of a humanitarian catastrophe.

According to a recent report by UN ESCWA, the Cumulative losses during 2011 and 2015 are estimated at $259.6 billion - $169.7 billion in GDP and $89.9 billion in Capital Stocks. GDP losses accelerated in 2012 and 2013 as economic activities plummeted and fighting intensified and spread across the country. Economic Sanctions began to bite in mid-2012, affecting all economic sectors, especially those dependent on primary production materials, food products and fuel. The collapse in oil ( from 386,000 to 28,000 barrels a day) and natural gas ( from 8.9 billion cubic meters to 5.9 billion cubic meters) production between 2010 and 2013 exacerbated GDP losses.

Syria's First Quarter Oil and Gas Production Continued to decline due to the ongoing battles between government forces and ISIS near Oil fields in the Syrian Desert.

Syria's electricity Sector to Require 7 billion Euros in the Next Five Years.

Due to the ongoing Syrian War, Aleppo which was considered the Industrial capital of Syria, lost more than 90% of its Manufacturing capacity according to new reports.

The Governor of Central Bank of Syria Dr. Adib Mayaleh stated that "the Central Bank of Syria's assets is in continuous improvement and is sufficient to meet all the needs". He also stated that "The Central Bank is continuously intervening in the foreign exchange market on a daily basis through exchange companies and is ready to fully meet the market need of foreign currency ."

Humanitarian Overview

In the last 10 days there were around 5,480 people displaced (including secondary displacements) in Lattakia, Idleb, Aleppo and Sweida Governorates.

Since April 1st, around 45,180 people were displaced (including secondary displacements) in Lattakia, Idleb, Aleppo, Al-Hasakeh, Dar’a and Sweida Governorates.

In total, 140,822 people are displaced in northern and southern Syria due to varous developments between the months of February and April 2016. They are distributed as follows:

o 84,785 people displaced in affected areas of Aleppo (66,413), Idleb (15,772), Homs (1,327), Lattakia (1,273) governorates, northern Syria, due to fighting since 1 February 2016 (figures as of 30 March).

o 43,587 people displaced in affected areas of Al-Hasakeh Governorate, northern Syria, due to fighting since 1 February 2016 (figures as of 4 May). This is an increase of 2,209 people since 10 April.

o 12,450 people newly displaced in Dar’a and Quneitra governorates, southern Syria, due to fighting from February to March 2016. This is part of the total IDP population of 334,800 in Dar’a and Quneitra governorates (figures as of 31 March).

According to OCHA, up to April 2016, 13.5M people are still in need of humanitarian

assistance, 6.5M people are internally displaced due to Violence and 4.8M people fled

the country.

Humanitarian Situation in Aleppo worsened during the month of April. Approximately

300 civilians died in both Government and opposition controlled areas. Many families fled

temporarily from Aleppo until the situation becomes clear and safe.

On May 2nd, ICRC and SARC completed the second part of a convoy delivering assistance

to northern rural Homs. A United Nations inter-agency convoy also delivered multi-

sectoral assistance to 60,000 people in the ‘Four Towns’ of Madaya, Zabadani, Foah and

Kafraya on 30 April.

United Nations operations have reached a cumulative of 977,040 people in need

(416,615 in besieged locations, 510,425 in hard-to-reach locations and 50,000 in priority

cross-line areas) since the beginning of the year.

As of 26 April, WFP had completed sixteen airdrop rotations to Deir Ez-Zor city, delivering

over 284 mt of food for more than 100,000 people, including rice, chickpeas and beans.

SARC, WFP’s partner inside Deir-ez-Zor, is collecting and distributing the airdrops.

Syrian Arab Crescent with the support of British Red Cross, ICRC and IFRC launched

livelihood projects in Syria. Five pilot projects are underway in different regions of Syria. A

livelihoods capacity building plan was also put in place to equip Red Crescent staff and

volunteers with the necessary knowledge about the implementation of the projects.

On 9 April, the UN conducted an inter-agency mission to Palmyra to conduct a rapid

assessment of the prevailing humanitarian situation. The team reported that Palmyra has

been severely damaged, and that extensive post-crisis reconstruction, repair of roads and

removal of debris would be required.

An activist from Thomson Reuters Foundation stated that " A growing number of children

whose families have fled the Syrian war to Lebanon are being forced to work for little or

no pay, many of them in dangerous conditions" according to his report, which was based

on interviews with local officials, refugees, international agencies and local NGOs. One

NGO interviewed for the report estimated that between 60 and 70 percent of refugee

children work.

MECC activities in Syria in over 2016 to date

Damascus and its Suburbs:

Distribution of 500 hygiene kits that assisted 2500 individuals in Damascus Suburbs.

Distribution of 250 Dignity kits in Damascus Suburbs.

Distribution of 3400 Hygiene vouchers that assisted 17,812 individuals in Damascus.

Wash rehabilitation for 5 schools in Damascus which benefited 2934 individuals.

Hygiene awareness campaigns + distribution of student hygiene kits in 4 schools

which benefited 1849 students.

Three Capacity Building Courses that benefited 75 attendees

One Business Startup Course with three Grants that benefited 12 attendees.

Daraa Governorate

Distribution of 8,350 hygiene kits that assisted 42,390 individuals.

Distribution of 8,350 Dignity kits in Daraa Governorate.

Distribution of 6486 children's winter clothing & shoes kits.

Distribution of 2000 bedding kits that benefited 10,000 individual.

Distribution of 2000 Adult Jacket kits that benefited 4000 individuals.

Wash rehabilitation for 5 schools that benefited 1809 individuals.

Hama Governorate

Distribution of 3000 hygiene kits that assisted 15,000 individuals.

Distribution of 1350 Dignity kits in Hama Governorate.

Distribution of 400 children's winter clothing & shoes kits.

Damascus and its suburb

NFI Distributions

Distributions of hygiene vouchers

Wash rehabilitation

Hygiene awareness campaigns

Daraa

NFI Distributions

Wash rehabilitation

Hama

NFI Distributions

References

1. Ian Black, Wednesday 13 April, The Guardian-

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/13/syria-peace-talks-resume-geneva-

elections-regime-areas

2. Al Monitor, May 1 2016, Aleppo on verge of decisive battle - http://www.al-

monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/aleppo-syria-battle-aramco-saudi-

ipo.html?utm_source=Al-

Monitor+Newsletter+%5BEnglish%5D&utm_campaign=c36b174f3b-

Week_in_review_May_02_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-

c36b174f3b-93125693#

3. Karam al-Masri, May 8 2016, Agence France-Presses - http://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-

arab-republic/residents-return-truce-extended-syrias-aleppo

4. Laura Rozen, April 20 2016, US news - http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-04-

20/syrian-peace-talks-pulled-back-from-the-brink

5. Saraya Dali-Balta, April 1 2016, IFRC - http://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-

republic/red-crescent-livelihood-programme-brings-hope-families-syria

6. OCHA Bi-Weekly Situation Report No. 03-

https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/system/files/documents/files/syria_crisis_bi-

weekly_situation_report_no.03_as_of_22_april_2016.pdf

7. Alex Whiting, April 12 2016, Trust News Org-

http://news.trust.org/item/20160412000354-xxo0i

8. Layal Abou Rahal, April 18 2016, Agence France-Presse -

http://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/syria-opposition-seeks-peace-talks-pause-

fighting-surges

9. UNHCR Flash Update on Recent events, May 4 2016.

10. OCHA Bi-Weekly Situation Report No. 02