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PowerPoint PresentationMeasuring the Creditworthiness of China’s
Corporates Using a Global Rating Scale 18th August 2021 (Wednesday)
4:00-5:10pm (HKT)
ZOOMING INTO CHINA’S BOND MARKET
BOND CONNECT SERIES EVENT – MINI SEMINAR
STARTING SOON!
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BOND CONNECT SERIES EVENT – MINI SEMINAR ZOOMING INTO CHINA’S BOND MARKET
Measuring the Creditworthiness of China’s Corporates Using a Global Rating Scale
18th August 2021 (Wednesday) 4:00-5:10pm (HKT)
HOST: Ms. Tracy YEUNG
Assistant Vice President, Sales & Marketing Bond Connect Company Ltd.
BOND CONNECT SERIES EVENT – MINI SEMINAR ZOOMING INTO CHINA’S BOND MARKET
Measuring the Creditworthiness of China’s Corporates Using a Global Rating Scale
18th August 2021 (Wednesday) 4:00-5:10pm (HKT)
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Q1-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21
CIBM Agent Model Bond Connect
International Investors Accounts Opened (Bond Connect vs CIBM Agent Model)
A Steady Growth in BC Filing in 2021 Attracted 78 out of Top 100 Global AM Companies
4
In 4 years, 2812 Bond Connect Investors are onboarded across 713 Entities vs 487 Entities for CIBM Agent Model.
• Solid demand of RMB assets among international investors in current global rates environment during COVID-19
• Total investor count steadily increasing with ongoing RMB internationalization measures, accentuated by progressive benchmark index inclusion of CGB bonds
• Specific rising interest from pension funds, securities, private banks & family offices
Rising Impact of Bond Connect as Major Investment Channel
2812 Now
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Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21
ADT (RMB billion) Approved Investors Traded Accounts
2018 RMB 3.6bn 2019 RMB 10.7bn 2020 RMB 19.8bn
Out of 2600+ accounts opened
+1500 have now traded (501 Entities)
Trading Volume 1. RMB 49.61bn 2. RMB 43.65bn 3. RMB 42.97bn
(21 Apr) (26 May) (21 Jun)
Making History with Record Highs in June 2021
An Explosive Growth in Trading Activities
Momentum is on the rise
This is only the Beginning.
RMB 641.12bn 6407 RMB 30.53bn
Total Volume Total Tickets ADT
Source: BCCL as of August 11th, 2021 5
Accelerating Trading Activities via Bond Connect
League Lable
Yearly ADT
Est. 2022
Trade Tickets 1. 750 2. 705 3. 656
Emerging interests are seen across Central Asia, Middle East, Africa and Latin America & the Caribbean.
Spanning Across 37 Global Jurisdictions
Hong Kong Taiwan Singapore United States of America Cayman British Virgin Islands
Macau
Switzerland Germany
Abu Dhabi Bahamas
Registration Jurisdictions Breakdown
Source: BCCL as of August 11th, 2021 6
A Changing & Expanding Investor Base— Jurisdictions
US; 34%
JP; 5%
LU; 4%
CA; 3%
TW; 3%
GE; 2%
HK, 33%
Recent Trend
beyond
Primary Market Information Platform &
transaction data
ePrime underwriter functionality established
Extended Settlement Cycles &
• ePrime – Investor Functionality
FX monitoring and reporting
products (ETP) and derivatives such as
IRS, repo, etc.
• Expand E-trading platforms
products
8
https://www.chinabondconnect.com
• Reference materials for trading & settlement of Bond Connect
• List of participating entities of Bond Connect
• Latest updates of Bond Connect scheme
• Contact Us
BCCL Sales & Marketing
Unit 4701, 47/F., Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Central. Hong Kong
Tel: (+852) 2327 0033
Chief Analytics Officer Pengyuan International
BOND CONNECT SERIES EVENT – MINI SEMINAR ZOOMING INTO CHINA’S BOND MARKET
Measuring the Creditworthiness of China’s Corporates Using a Global Rating Scale
18th August 2021 (Wednesday) 4:00-5:10pm (HKT)
Measuring the Creditworthiness of China’s Corporates
Using a Global Rating Scale
AGENDA Comparisons between the global and domestic rating scale
Distribution of Chinese corporates’ creditworthiness on the global rating scale
Chinese corporates’ key credit matrix by industries
Q&As
13
China
Treasury
China
Corporate
Global
Treasuries
Corporate MSCI World S&P500
China Treasury 1.00 0.49 0.16 0.06 -0.07 0.17 0.07 -0.09 -0.11 -0.10
China Corporate 1.00 0.06 0.02 -0.11 0.11 0.02 -0.07 -0.12 -0.11
Global Treasuries 1.00 0.53 0.30 0.63 0.55 0.09 0.06 -0.04
Global IG Corporate 1.00 0.60 0.60 0.98 0.51 0.20 0.14
Global HY Corporate 1.00 -0.12 0.58 0.97 0.71 0.64
US Treasury 1.00 0.63 -0.18 -0.34 -0.37
US IG Corporate 1.00 0.50 0.19 0.14
US HY Corporate 1.00 0.72 0.68
MSCI World 1.00 0.96
S&P500 1.00 Source: Bloomberg
• China has overtaken Japan as the world's second largest bond market
• Very attractive risk-adjusted returns and a very low correlation with other asset classes globally
China Onshore Bond Market is Rapidly Opening Up to Foreign Investors
14
2002
QFII
2011
RQFII
2016
T ri
lli o
n C
N Y
Foreign Holding of CN Govt. onshore
Foreign Holding of CN Policy Bank onshore
Foreign Holding of CN Corp. onshore
Foreign Ownership of CN onshore (%)
Source: Shanghai Clearing, China Central Depository & Clearing Pengyuan International Source: Shanghai Clearing, China Central Depository & Clearing Pengyuan International
Government 63%
Challenges on Assessing the Creditworthiness of China’s Corporates
15
Globally comparable credit ratings are essential to the internationalization of China’s bond markets
• Credit analysis on China’s credits requires local expertise and language skills
• China’s domestic rating agencies assign credit ratings for China’s corporates under the national rating scale
• The majority of China’s domestic ratings fall into the rating categories of AAA to AA
• International rating agency’s onshore subsidiary also assigns ratings under a national rating scale that cannot be
mapped to its global ratings
Onshore Credit Bond market by Issuer Credit Rating
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Offshore Credit Bond market by Issuer Credit Rating
Source: DMI, Pengyuan International
Comparisons Between the Global and National Rating Scale
Note: the 3 ratings displayed above are of unsolicited nature. For more information, please visit https://www.pyrating.com/rating-actions.html 16
Global scale ratings (GSRs)
purposes by global investors
• Comparable across regions, sectors and over time
• Pengyuan International adopted global scale ratings in its business
operation
• Only provide opinions on the relative creditworthiness within a specific
country
• No direct relationship with historical default probabilities
• The investment grade and speculative grade nomenclature is not
appliable
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/pengyuancms/methodology/in-use-criteria/corporates/General-Corporate-Rating-Criteria/Criteria- GeneralCorporateRatingCriteria.pdf 17
• Support from a government
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/pengyuancms/methodology/in-use-criteria/general/Government-Related/Criteria-Government- RelatedEntitiesRatingCriteria-updated.pdf 18
Ownership
Financial and Social
Impacts of Default
GRE’s Standalone
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/rating-actions/issuer/Peoples-Republic-of-China.html https://www.pyrating.com/rating-actions.html?issuerP=1&practiceArea=publicFinance 19
• Pengyuan International uses their issuer credit ratings to assess governments’ capability to provide
“extraordinary support” to GREs
• Pengyuan International has assigned global scale ratings to 20 provincial governments of China
• Pengyuan International has assessed the creditworthiness of 327 China’s prefecture-level governments
Global Scale Ratings for Provincial-level Governments
0
30
60
90
120
150
{AA} {AA-} {A+} {A} {A-} {BBB+} {BBB} {BBB-} {BB+} {BB}
N u m
b e r
o v e rn
m e n ts
Indicative Credit Estimate Distribution of Prefecture-level Governments
Source: Pengyuan International Indicative credit estimate expressed are Pengyuan International’s view of credit quality derived
from desktop analysis based on public information. Please see the research report for details.
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/pengyuancms/methodology/in-use-criteria/corporates/Financial-Adjustments-and-Ratio- Definitions_20210315102627122/Criteria-CorporateFinancialAdjustmentsandRatioDefinitions.pdf 20
Given the gaps in accounting and disclosure standard of Chinese credits, making consistent financial
adjustments are important for obtaining globally comparable financial data
• Total debt is adjusted by the following items: accrued interests and dividends, debt issuance cost, hybrid capital
instruments, financial guarantees, litigation exposures, asset retirement obligations, operating and financial
leases, underfunded pension liabilities, factoring and securitized liabilities, etc
• Interest expenses is adjusted by interest from the adjustment of fair value to amortized cost, capitalized interest
cost, interest cost from extra asset retirement obligations, imputed interest costs from capitalizing operating
leases, interest from underfunded pension liabilities, and imputed interest from receivable factoring and
securitization, etc
• Hybrid capital instruments are adjusted according to the assessment of how much equity characteristics these
instruments actually have
• Excess cash is adjusted for restricted cash and a certain level of operating cash, etc
• Capitalized development cost is adjusted to be an expense item on the income statement, if the companies
have not done so
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/pengyuancms/methodology/in-use-criteria/corporates/General-Corporate-Rating-Criteria/Criteria- GeneralCorporateRatingCriteria.pdf 21
Industry Risk Profile Assessment
• To ensure comparability of ratings across sectors, industry risk is assessed by evaluating concentration risk,
entry barriers, growth prospects, profitability, substitution risk, cyclicality risk
Assess a Company's Creditworthiness by its Business Profile and Financial Profile using a Matrix
• Financial risks have different effects on the creditworthiness of companies that have different business risks and
opportunities
FINANCIAL
PROFILE
BUSINESS PROFILE
7 Excellent 6 Very Strong 5 Strong 4 Moderate 3 Weak 2 Fairly Weak 1 Vulnerable
aaa aaa aa a+ a- bbb bb+ bb-
aa+ aa+ aa a bbb+ bbb bb+ bb-
aa aa+ aa- a- bbb+ bbb- bb+ bb-
aa- aa a+ bbb+ bbb bbb- bb+ bb-
a+ aa a bbb+ bbb bbb- bb+ bb-
a aa- a bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb-
a- a+ a- bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb-
bbb+ a bbb+ bbb- bbb- bb+ bb b+
bbb a- bbb+ bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+
bbb- a- bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+
bb+ bbb+ bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+
bb bbb+ bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+ b
bb- bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+ b
b+ bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+ b+ b
b bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+ b b-
b- bb+ bb bb- b+ b b b-
ccc+ bb+ bb bb- b+ b b- ccc+
ccc/ccc- bb bb- b+ b b- ccc+ ccc/ccc-
Examples of Economic and Financial Crises in Accordance with Pengyuan's Stress Scenarios
Name Period Real GDP
Great Depression of USA 1929 - 1933 26.7% 24.9% 89% AAA
World War (France) 1939 - 1944 41.4% n.a. n.a. >AAA
World War (Japan) 1940 - 1944 50.3% n.a. n.a. >AAA
Sino-Japan War (China) 1931 - 1945 n.a. n.a. n.a. >AAA
Chinese Civil War 1945 - 1949 n.a. n.a. n.a. >AAA
USA Early 1980s Recession 1980 - 1982 2.6% 10.8% 29% BBB
Japanese Bubble Burst 1989 - 2009 n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
7.4%
7.0%
n.a.
n.a.
7.4%
5.9%
n.a.
70%
64%
60%
n.a.
n.a.
12.2%
n.a.
89%
n.a.
5.5%
n.a.
10%
10.1%
n.a.
52%
58%
n.a.
Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis 2008 - 2014 27.3% 27.9% 92% AAA
Source: OECD, IMF, National Bureau of Economic Research, Stock Exchanges
22
Valuable Visibility of Chinese Credits in the Offshore Bond Market
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 23
Monthly Issued Principal (in millions)
• A total of 2,863 offshore Chinese corporate bonds are issued from September 1993 to January 2021
• Among those 2,863 bonds, 703 unique issuers are identified, 30 of them have defaulted
• Our research sample includes 534 of these 703 issuers, representing 84% of the issued principal
• The sampling considers data transparency and the fact that some of them have received ratings from other
global rating agencies
Principal, translated to US$ YoY
Source: DMI, Pengyuan International
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 24
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
A n
n u
Corporate Bond Issuance Total Bond Issuance Total % change Corporate % change
<1 year 0.1% 1 year
11%
First Priority Lien; 6%
Second Priority Lien; 0.1%
Bond Term, Issued since 2015 Bond Seniority, Issued since 2015Bond Features, Issued since 2015
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 25
Communication Services, 0.5%
Materials, 10%
Energy, 15%
Financials, 2%
Consumer Discretionary,
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 26
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Indicative Credit Estimate Distribution by Issuer Type
Indicative Credit Estimate Distribution by Issuer Type
• The majority of the assessed issuers fall somewhere between investment grade and high-yield grade. The
median of the distribution is “{BBB-}”
• The distribution is slightly positively skewed
• the lower tail consisting primarily of general corporates
• the upper tail consisting primarily of GREs (Government Related Entities) and LGFVs (Local Government
Financing Vehicles)
• Indicative credit estimate expressed are Pengyuan International’s view of credit quality derived from desktop analysis based on public information. Please see the research report for details.
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 27
Rating Agencies
• The distribution of 338 issuers’ ratings assigned by either S&P, Moody’s or Fitch is shown along with Pengyuan
International’s indicative credit estimate distribution
• Our indicative credit estimate distribution is highly comparable to global market consensus
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
PY's Indicative Credit Estimate
Indicative Credit Estimate Distribution by Issuer Type
• Indicative credit estimate expressed are Pengyuan International’s view of credit quality derived from desktop analysis based on public information. Please see the research report for details.
https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates-Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html
5
10
15
20
GRE Indicative SACP
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 28
estimate distribution and Indicative standalone credit profile (SACP) distribution are significantly different
• These companies, especially LGFVs, are mostly very weak on a stand-alone basis and derive the majority of
their credit strength from external supports
10
20
30
40
50
LGFV Indicative SACP
LGFV’s Indicative Credit Estimate and Indicative SACP Distribution
GRE’s Indicative Credit Estimate and Indicative SACP Distribution
• Indicative credit estimate expressed are Pengyuan International’s view of credit quality derived from desktop analysis based on public information. Please see the research report for details.
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 29
• In terms of administrative levels, provincial-level LGFVs have higher indicative credit estimates than prefecture-
level LGFVs, and similarly, prefecture-level LGFVs have higher indicative credit estimates than county-level
LGFVs
• Despite the fact that the western region’s economy is weaker than those in the eastern and the central region,
the LGFVs from the western region do not necessarily have lower indicative credit estimates
LGFV’s Indicative Credit Estimate Distribution by Administrative Level And Geographic Locations
Indicative Credit Estimate LGFV LGFV LGFV LGFV LGFV LGFV LGFV
Province Prefecture County Eastern Central Western Northeast
{AAA}
{AA+}
{AA}
{BBB+} 2 22 7 13 10 7 1
{BBB} 2 18 14 21 3 9 1
{BBB-} 1 26 19 21 10 15
{BB+} 1 15 14 16 3 12
{BB} 8 6 10 1 2 1
{BB-} 5 4 4 3 1
{B+}
{B}
{B-}
{CCC+}
{CCC/CCC-}
Total 22 111 67 100 38 59 3
• Indicative credit estimate expressed are Pengyuan International’s view of credit quality derived from desktop analysis based on public information. Please see the research report for details.
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 30
• The difference between indicative SACP and indicative credit estimate for LGFVs and GREs is significant
• For general corporates, the difference between indicative SACP and indicative credit estimate is much smaller,
and only a few companies receive meaningful and accountable support from their parents
• General corporates, on average have much lower credit quality than LGFVs and GREs, with an average score of
6.7, which is equivalent to “{BB}”. The median indicative credit estimate is “{BB-}”, three notches lower than the
overall average
Average of Indicative Credit Estimates and Indicative SACP by Industry
10.9
9.7
6.7
4.5
5.9
3.0
9.3
6.7
n=534 *translated using {AAA}=18 and minus 1 point for each notch
transparent colored includes general corporates only
Indicative credit estimates
Indicative SACP Mean
• Indicative credit estimate expressed are Pengyuan International’s view of credit quality derived from desktop analysis based on public information. Please see the research report for details.
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 31
• There is only a handful of general corporate issuers whose indicative credit estimates score higher than or equal
to “{A}”, and only about 25% of corporates have investment grade indicative credit estimates
• Only information technology issuers have a median score above investment grade
General Corporates’ Indicative Credit Estimate Distribution by Industry
Indicative
Credit
Estimate
Information
Consumer
{BBB-} 2 3 1 4 2 12
{BB+} 1 2 2 8 2 2 17
{BB} 3 13 1 1 4 22
{BB-} 1 2 6 19 1 1 4 34
{B+} 2 3 13 1 1 1 6 27
{B} 1 1 1 12 1 1 1 18
{B-} 2 4 12 1 1 20
{CCC+} 5 1 6
{CCC/CCC-} 3 1 1 5
Total 15 10 11 19 98 6 8 4 2 31 204
• Indicative credit estimate expressed are Pengyuan International’s view of credit quality derived from desktop analysis based on public information. Please see the research report for details.
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 32
Business Profile Score Distribution Financial Profile Score Distribution
• The business profiles were evaluated on a seven-point scale ranging from “vulnerable” to “very strong”. The
financial profiles were evaluated on an eighteen-point scale ranging from “highly leveraged” to “minimal”
• In the sample, the business profile of these samples is generally weak, with about 58% issuers falling below
“moderate” business profile category, and that the majority of these companies have high leverage level, with
approximately 48% being “highly leveraged”
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 33
• LGFVs have very weak financial profile
• Energy sector has the worst combined profile, as the majority of energy companies that have issued offshore
bonds are exploration and production (E&P) related equipment manufacturers, which are highly volatile, cyclical
and have the risk of falling off
• Healthcare companies generally have a strong niche and a track record of stable cash flow generation
• GREs typically have very strong business profiles owing to the fact that they are backed by administrative
policies and enjoy a sizable market share
LGFV
GRE
Utilities
F in
a n
c ia
l P
ro fi
V e
ry S
tr o
n g
V e
ry W
e a
Bubble size indicates the aggregate asset size of the industry
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 34
Leverage Profile and Profitability by Sector
• Consumer staples have the best leverage profile because of their strong and stable cash generation ability and
modest financial leverage
• LGFVs have some of the worst leverage profiles due to their weak cashflow generation and extremely high
leverage
• Issuers of consumer discretionary and information technology businesses, have a net cash position on average
LGFV
GRE
Energy Consumer Discretionary
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0
P ro
fi ta
b il
it y
V e
ry W
e a
k V
e ry
S tr
o n
Bubble size indicates the aggregate asset size of the industry
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 35
• GREs and information technology companies are, on average, significantly larger than the rest, while energy and
healthcare companies are the smallest
• Information technology, healthcare, consumer staples, materials and consumer discretionary have significant
cash holdings and short-term investments, and thus have a low net debt to EBITDA ratio, although some of
which have a relatively high gross debt to capitalization ratio
Key Financials based on latest FY information
Per Company LGFV GRE General IT Utilities Health-
care Industrial
Estate Staples Materials Comm. Energy Discret. Total
Revenue 11.9 206.1 61.2 147.7 15.8 12.0 60.7 50.9 54.8 47.1 19.4 4.0 98.7 78.0
EBITDA 1.4 23.1 10.1 21.3 3.8 2.7 10.7 10.3 7.2 7.5 6.6 0.8 10.8 10.0
Assets 106.2 433.1 190.5 209.7 54.9 30.8 214.3 258.4 47.5 80.9 53.3 10.6 137.8 218.0
Selected Ratios (Latest FY information)
EBITDA Margin 12.2% 11.2% 16.5% 14.4% 24.0% 22.1% 17.6% 20.2% 13.1% 16.0% 34.1% 19.1% 10.9% 12.9%
Net
Debt/EBITDA 25.7x 3.2x 2.4x -0.8x 3.7x 1.6x 2.9x 4.1x 0.3x 2.6x 3.7x 3.4x -0.3x 4.1x
Gross
Debt/Capita. 50.7% 44.5% 42.3% 27.5% 41.1% 33.7% 41.0% 47.6% 23.1% 44.4% 63.9% 46.2% 30.6% 45.2%
• China's onshore and offshore bond markets have grown rapidly over the last decade
• Foreign participation in China's bond market remains extremely limited
• While foreign investors' access to China's onshore bond market has significantly improved, foreign investors
continue to primarily hold sovereign and quasi-sovereign bonds
• Among other things, the absence of globally comparable credit ratings creates a barrier for many international
investors who rely on global scale ratings to guide their investment and risk management decisions
• Pengyuan International has adopted a global rating system in order to facilitate international investors'
understanding of the Chinese bond markets and to make it easier for them to compare debt securities from
different countries
• Utilizing a globally recognized rating system enables greater segregation of credit scores for distinct companies
than China’s domestic rating system, which appears to have limited credit differentiation
How Can Pengyuan International Help You Accessing China?
Pengyuan International reserves the ultimate right of interpretation of the products&services provided 37
0
20
40
Rating Median
Meetings with Pengyuan International’s analysts (non-fee basis)
Private Credit Assessment (investor-paid)
38
Ke Chen, is the Chief Analytics Officer of Pengyuan International and serves as a member of the company’s Board
of Directors He is also a Responsible Officer of Pengyuan International within the meaning of the SFO licensed to
carry out Type 10 regulated activity under the SFO
Before joining Pengyuan International, he worked as a Lead Quantitative Analyst at S&P Global Ratings He joined
S&P Global Ratings New York office in 2011 and was later transferred to the Hong Kong office He conducted
academic research at the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign on econometrics models for forecasting
corporate default rates prior to joining S&P Global Ratings
Ke holds an MA in Economics from the University of British Columbia, an MS in Statistics and a PhD in Economics
from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Ke Chen, PhD
Chief Analytics Officer
Business Management
Pengyuan Credit Rating (Hong Kong) Company Ltd (“Pengyuan International”, “Pengyuan”“us”, “our”) publishes credit ratings and reports based on the
established methodologies and in compliance with the rating process. For more information on policies, procedures, and methodologies, please refer to our
website www.pyrating.com. Pengyuan International reserves the right to amend, change, remove, publish any information on its website without prior notice and
at its sole discretion.
The information herein does not constitute a commitment by Pengyuan International to assign a credit rating or to provide any other services.
Any information herein was prepared for the benefit and internal use by anyone to whom it is directly delivered and does not carry any right of disclosure to any
third party. All information herein is for discussion purposes only and should be completed with the oral briefing provided by Pengyuan International. The
information herein is subject to change and should be regarded as indicative and for illustrative purposes only.
Pengyuan International prohibits its employees from offering, directly or indirectly, a favourable credit rating, or offering to change a credit rating, to a client as
consideration or inducement for business development purposes or for compensation. Pengyuan International also prohibits its rating analysts from being
involved in any fee discussions.
All credit ratings and reports are subject to disclaimers and certain limitations. CREDIT RATINGS ARE NOT FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE AND
MUST NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY, SELL OR HOLD ANY SECURITIES AND DO NOT ADDRESS/REFLECT MARKET
VALUE OF ANY SECURITIES. USERS OF CREDIT RATINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TRAINED FOR INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT OF INVESTMENT
AND BUSINESS DECISIONS.
CREDIT RATINGS ADDRESS ONLY CREDIT RISK. PENGYUAN INTERNATIONAL DEFINES THE CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT THE RATED ENTITY
MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL AND/OR FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY BECOME DUE. CREDIT RATINGS MUST NOT BE CONSIDERED AS
FACTS OF A SPECIFIC DEFAULT PROBABILITY OR AS A PREDICTIVE MEASURE OF A DEFAULT PROBABILITY. Credit ratings constitute our forward-
looking opinion of the credit rating committee and include predictions about future events which by definition cannot be validated as facts.
For the purpose of rating process Pengyuan International obtains sufficient quality factual information from sources believed by us to be reliable and accurate.
Pengyuan International does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or third-party verification of any information it uses during the rating
process. The issuer and its advisors are ultimately responsible for the accuracy of the information provided for the rating process.
Users of our credit ratings should refer to the rating symbols and definitions published on the website of Pengyuan International. Credit ratings with the same
rating symbol may not fully reflect all small differences in the degrees of risk, because credit ratings are relative measures of the credit risk.
NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF ANY INFORMATION GIVEN OR MADE BY
PENGYUAN INTERNATIONAL IN ANY FORM OR MANNER. In no event shall Pengyuan International, its directors, shareholders, employees, representatives
be liable to any party for any damages, expenses, fees, or losses in connection with any use of the information published by Pengyuan International.
Pengyuan International reserves the right to take any rating action for any reasons Pengyuan International deems sufficient at any time and in its sole discretion.
The publication and maintenance of credit ratings are subject to availability of sufficient information.
Pengyuan International may receive compensation for its credit ratings, normally from issuers, underwriters or obligors. The information about our fee schedule
can be provided upon the request.
Pengyuan International reserves the right to disseminate its credit ratings and reports through its website, social media pages and authorised third parties. No
content published by Pengyuan International may be modified, reproduced, transferred, distributed or reverse engineered in any form by any means without the
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please consult the relevant regulatory body or professional advisor to ensure compliance with applicable laws and regulations.
Copyright © 2021 by Pengyuan Credit Rating (Hong Kong) Company Ltd. All rights reserved.
Q&A
BOND CONNECT SERIES EVENT – MINI SEMINAR ZOOMING INTO CHINA’S BOND MARKET
Measuring the Creditworthiness of China’s Corporates Using a Global Rating Scale
18th August 2021 (Wednesday) 4:00-5:10pm (HKT)
Thank You
For any enquiries, please contact:
Bond Connect Company Limited Unit 4701, 47/F., Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Central, Hong Kong
Tel: (+852) 2327 0567 Email: [email protected]
BOND CONNECT SERIES EVENT – MINI SEMINAR ZOOMING INTO CHINA’S BOND MARKET
Measuring the Creditworthiness of China’s Corporates Using a Global Rating Scale
18th August 2021 (Wednesday) 4:00-5:10pm (HKT)
ZOOMING INTO CHINA’S BOND MARKET
BOND CONNECT SERIES EVENT – MINI SEMINAR
STARTING SOON!
Housekeeping
1. All participants are on a listen only mode during the webinar.
2. After the presentation, there will be a Q&A session. For any questions for the speaker, please type it in Q&A Box on the bottom right corner. The speaker will discuss in Q&A session at the end of the event.
3. The webinar is being recorded. The presentation playback and presentation slides will be available on BCCL Website later in due course
4. If any participant requires assistance at any time, please send a message to the host through the chat box in this webinar platform.
BOND CONNECT SERIES EVENT – MINI SEMINAR ZOOMING INTO CHINA’S BOND MARKET
Measuring the Creditworthiness of China’s Corporates Using a Global Rating Scale
18th August 2021 (Wednesday) 4:00-5:10pm (HKT)
HOST: Ms. Tracy YEUNG
Assistant Vice President, Sales & Marketing Bond Connect Company Ltd.
BOND CONNECT SERIES EVENT – MINI SEMINAR ZOOMING INTO CHINA’S BOND MARKET
Measuring the Creditworthiness of China’s Corporates Using a Global Rating Scale
18th August 2021 (Wednesday) 4:00-5:10pm (HKT)
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
Q1-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21
CIBM Agent Model Bond Connect
International Investors Accounts Opened (Bond Connect vs CIBM Agent Model)
A Steady Growth in BC Filing in 2021 Attracted 78 out of Top 100 Global AM Companies
4
In 4 years, 2812 Bond Connect Investors are onboarded across 713 Entities vs 487 Entities for CIBM Agent Model.
• Solid demand of RMB assets among international investors in current global rates environment during COVID-19
• Total investor count steadily increasing with ongoing RMB internationalization measures, accentuated by progressive benchmark index inclusion of CGB bonds
• Specific rising interest from pension funds, securities, private banks & family offices
Rising Impact of Bond Connect as Major Investment Channel
2812 Now
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21
ADT (RMB billion) Approved Investors Traded Accounts
2018 RMB 3.6bn 2019 RMB 10.7bn 2020 RMB 19.8bn
Out of 2600+ accounts opened
+1500 have now traded (501 Entities)
Trading Volume 1. RMB 49.61bn 2. RMB 43.65bn 3. RMB 42.97bn
(21 Apr) (26 May) (21 Jun)
Making History with Record Highs in June 2021
An Explosive Growth in Trading Activities
Momentum is on the rise
This is only the Beginning.
RMB 641.12bn 6407 RMB 30.53bn
Total Volume Total Tickets ADT
Source: BCCL as of August 11th, 2021 5
Accelerating Trading Activities via Bond Connect
League Lable
Yearly ADT
Est. 2022
Trade Tickets 1. 750 2. 705 3. 656
Emerging interests are seen across Central Asia, Middle East, Africa and Latin America & the Caribbean.
Spanning Across 37 Global Jurisdictions
Hong Kong Taiwan Singapore United States of America Cayman British Virgin Islands
Macau
Switzerland Germany
Abu Dhabi Bahamas
Registration Jurisdictions Breakdown
Source: BCCL as of August 11th, 2021 6
A Changing & Expanding Investor Base— Jurisdictions
US; 34%
JP; 5%
LU; 4%
CA; 3%
TW; 3%
GE; 2%
HK, 33%
Recent Trend
beyond
Primary Market Information Platform &
transaction data
ePrime underwriter functionality established
Extended Settlement Cycles &
• ePrime – Investor Functionality
FX monitoring and reporting
products (ETP) and derivatives such as
IRS, repo, etc.
• Expand E-trading platforms
products
8
https://www.chinabondconnect.com
• Reference materials for trading & settlement of Bond Connect
• List of participating entities of Bond Connect
• Latest updates of Bond Connect scheme
• Contact Us
BCCL Sales & Marketing
Unit 4701, 47/F., Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Central. Hong Kong
Tel: (+852) 2327 0033
Chief Analytics Officer Pengyuan International
BOND CONNECT SERIES EVENT – MINI SEMINAR ZOOMING INTO CHINA’S BOND MARKET
Measuring the Creditworthiness of China’s Corporates Using a Global Rating Scale
18th August 2021 (Wednesday) 4:00-5:10pm (HKT)
Measuring the Creditworthiness of China’s Corporates
Using a Global Rating Scale
AGENDA Comparisons between the global and domestic rating scale
Distribution of Chinese corporates’ creditworthiness on the global rating scale
Chinese corporates’ key credit matrix by industries
Q&As
13
China
Treasury
China
Corporate
Global
Treasuries
Corporate MSCI World S&P500
China Treasury 1.00 0.49 0.16 0.06 -0.07 0.17 0.07 -0.09 -0.11 -0.10
China Corporate 1.00 0.06 0.02 -0.11 0.11 0.02 -0.07 -0.12 -0.11
Global Treasuries 1.00 0.53 0.30 0.63 0.55 0.09 0.06 -0.04
Global IG Corporate 1.00 0.60 0.60 0.98 0.51 0.20 0.14
Global HY Corporate 1.00 -0.12 0.58 0.97 0.71 0.64
US Treasury 1.00 0.63 -0.18 -0.34 -0.37
US IG Corporate 1.00 0.50 0.19 0.14
US HY Corporate 1.00 0.72 0.68
MSCI World 1.00 0.96
S&P500 1.00 Source: Bloomberg
• China has overtaken Japan as the world's second largest bond market
• Very attractive risk-adjusted returns and a very low correlation with other asset classes globally
China Onshore Bond Market is Rapidly Opening Up to Foreign Investors
14
2002
QFII
2011
RQFII
2016
T ri
lli o
n C
N Y
Foreign Holding of CN Govt. onshore
Foreign Holding of CN Policy Bank onshore
Foreign Holding of CN Corp. onshore
Foreign Ownership of CN onshore (%)
Source: Shanghai Clearing, China Central Depository & Clearing Pengyuan International Source: Shanghai Clearing, China Central Depository & Clearing Pengyuan International
Government 63%
Challenges on Assessing the Creditworthiness of China’s Corporates
15
Globally comparable credit ratings are essential to the internationalization of China’s bond markets
• Credit analysis on China’s credits requires local expertise and language skills
• China’s domestic rating agencies assign credit ratings for China’s corporates under the national rating scale
• The majority of China’s domestic ratings fall into the rating categories of AAA to AA
• International rating agency’s onshore subsidiary also assigns ratings under a national rating scale that cannot be
mapped to its global ratings
Onshore Credit Bond market by Issuer Credit Rating
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Offshore Credit Bond market by Issuer Credit Rating
Source: DMI, Pengyuan International
Comparisons Between the Global and National Rating Scale
Note: the 3 ratings displayed above are of unsolicited nature. For more information, please visit https://www.pyrating.com/rating-actions.html 16
Global scale ratings (GSRs)
purposes by global investors
• Comparable across regions, sectors and over time
• Pengyuan International adopted global scale ratings in its business
operation
• Only provide opinions on the relative creditworthiness within a specific
country
• No direct relationship with historical default probabilities
• The investment grade and speculative grade nomenclature is not
appliable
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/pengyuancms/methodology/in-use-criteria/corporates/General-Corporate-Rating-Criteria/Criteria- GeneralCorporateRatingCriteria.pdf 17
• Support from a government
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/pengyuancms/methodology/in-use-criteria/general/Government-Related/Criteria-Government- RelatedEntitiesRatingCriteria-updated.pdf 18
Ownership
Financial and Social
Impacts of Default
GRE’s Standalone
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/rating-actions/issuer/Peoples-Republic-of-China.html https://www.pyrating.com/rating-actions.html?issuerP=1&practiceArea=publicFinance 19
• Pengyuan International uses their issuer credit ratings to assess governments’ capability to provide
“extraordinary support” to GREs
• Pengyuan International has assigned global scale ratings to 20 provincial governments of China
• Pengyuan International has assessed the creditworthiness of 327 China’s prefecture-level governments
Global Scale Ratings for Provincial-level Governments
0
30
60
90
120
150
{AA} {AA-} {A+} {A} {A-} {BBB+} {BBB} {BBB-} {BB+} {BB}
N u m
b e r
o v e rn
m e n ts
Indicative Credit Estimate Distribution of Prefecture-level Governments
Source: Pengyuan International Indicative credit estimate expressed are Pengyuan International’s view of credit quality derived
from desktop analysis based on public information. Please see the research report for details.
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/pengyuancms/methodology/in-use-criteria/corporates/Financial-Adjustments-and-Ratio- Definitions_20210315102627122/Criteria-CorporateFinancialAdjustmentsandRatioDefinitions.pdf 20
Given the gaps in accounting and disclosure standard of Chinese credits, making consistent financial
adjustments are important for obtaining globally comparable financial data
• Total debt is adjusted by the following items: accrued interests and dividends, debt issuance cost, hybrid capital
instruments, financial guarantees, litigation exposures, asset retirement obligations, operating and financial
leases, underfunded pension liabilities, factoring and securitized liabilities, etc
• Interest expenses is adjusted by interest from the adjustment of fair value to amortized cost, capitalized interest
cost, interest cost from extra asset retirement obligations, imputed interest costs from capitalizing operating
leases, interest from underfunded pension liabilities, and imputed interest from receivable factoring and
securitization, etc
• Hybrid capital instruments are adjusted according to the assessment of how much equity characteristics these
instruments actually have
• Excess cash is adjusted for restricted cash and a certain level of operating cash, etc
• Capitalized development cost is adjusted to be an expense item on the income statement, if the companies
have not done so
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/pengyuancms/methodology/in-use-criteria/corporates/General-Corporate-Rating-Criteria/Criteria- GeneralCorporateRatingCriteria.pdf 21
Industry Risk Profile Assessment
• To ensure comparability of ratings across sectors, industry risk is assessed by evaluating concentration risk,
entry barriers, growth prospects, profitability, substitution risk, cyclicality risk
Assess a Company's Creditworthiness by its Business Profile and Financial Profile using a Matrix
• Financial risks have different effects on the creditworthiness of companies that have different business risks and
opportunities
FINANCIAL
PROFILE
BUSINESS PROFILE
7 Excellent 6 Very Strong 5 Strong 4 Moderate 3 Weak 2 Fairly Weak 1 Vulnerable
aaa aaa aa a+ a- bbb bb+ bb-
aa+ aa+ aa a bbb+ bbb bb+ bb-
aa aa+ aa- a- bbb+ bbb- bb+ bb-
aa- aa a+ bbb+ bbb bbb- bb+ bb-
a+ aa a bbb+ bbb bbb- bb+ bb-
a aa- a bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb-
a- a+ a- bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb-
bbb+ a bbb+ bbb- bbb- bb+ bb b+
bbb a- bbb+ bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+
bbb- a- bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+
bb+ bbb+ bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+
bb bbb+ bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+ b
bb- bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+ b
b+ bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+ b+ b
b bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+ b b-
b- bb+ bb bb- b+ b b b-
ccc+ bb+ bb bb- b+ b b- ccc+
ccc/ccc- bb bb- b+ b b- ccc+ ccc/ccc-
Examples of Economic and Financial Crises in Accordance with Pengyuan's Stress Scenarios
Name Period Real GDP
Great Depression of USA 1929 - 1933 26.7% 24.9% 89% AAA
World War (France) 1939 - 1944 41.4% n.a. n.a. >AAA
World War (Japan) 1940 - 1944 50.3% n.a. n.a. >AAA
Sino-Japan War (China) 1931 - 1945 n.a. n.a. n.a. >AAA
Chinese Civil War 1945 - 1949 n.a. n.a. n.a. >AAA
USA Early 1980s Recession 1980 - 1982 2.6% 10.8% 29% BBB
Japanese Bubble Burst 1989 - 2009 n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
7.4%
7.0%
n.a.
n.a.
7.4%
5.9%
n.a.
70%
64%
60%
n.a.
n.a.
12.2%
n.a.
89%
n.a.
5.5%
n.a.
10%
10.1%
n.a.
52%
58%
n.a.
Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis 2008 - 2014 27.3% 27.9% 92% AAA
Source: OECD, IMF, National Bureau of Economic Research, Stock Exchanges
22
Valuable Visibility of Chinese Credits in the Offshore Bond Market
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 23
Monthly Issued Principal (in millions)
• A total of 2,863 offshore Chinese corporate bonds are issued from September 1993 to January 2021
• Among those 2,863 bonds, 703 unique issuers are identified, 30 of them have defaulted
• Our research sample includes 534 of these 703 issuers, representing 84% of the issued principal
• The sampling considers data transparency and the fact that some of them have received ratings from other
global rating agencies
Principal, translated to US$ YoY
Source: DMI, Pengyuan International
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 24
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
A n
n u
Corporate Bond Issuance Total Bond Issuance Total % change Corporate % change
<1 year 0.1% 1 year
11%
First Priority Lien; 6%
Second Priority Lien; 0.1%
Bond Term, Issued since 2015 Bond Seniority, Issued since 2015Bond Features, Issued since 2015
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 25
Communication Services, 0.5%
Materials, 10%
Energy, 15%
Financials, 2%
Consumer Discretionary,
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 26
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Indicative Credit Estimate Distribution by Issuer Type
Indicative Credit Estimate Distribution by Issuer Type
• The majority of the assessed issuers fall somewhere between investment grade and high-yield grade. The
median of the distribution is “{BBB-}”
• The distribution is slightly positively skewed
• the lower tail consisting primarily of general corporates
• the upper tail consisting primarily of GREs (Government Related Entities) and LGFVs (Local Government
Financing Vehicles)
• Indicative credit estimate expressed are Pengyuan International’s view of credit quality derived from desktop analysis based on public information. Please see the research report for details.
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 27
Rating Agencies
• The distribution of 338 issuers’ ratings assigned by either S&P, Moody’s or Fitch is shown along with Pengyuan
International’s indicative credit estimate distribution
• Our indicative credit estimate distribution is highly comparable to global market consensus
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
PY's Indicative Credit Estimate
Indicative Credit Estimate Distribution by Issuer Type
• Indicative credit estimate expressed are Pengyuan International’s view of credit quality derived from desktop analysis based on public information. Please see the research report for details.
https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates-Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html
5
10
15
20
GRE Indicative SACP
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 28
estimate distribution and Indicative standalone credit profile (SACP) distribution are significantly different
• These companies, especially LGFVs, are mostly very weak on a stand-alone basis and derive the majority of
their credit strength from external supports
10
20
30
40
50
LGFV Indicative SACP
LGFV’s Indicative Credit Estimate and Indicative SACP Distribution
GRE’s Indicative Credit Estimate and Indicative SACP Distribution
• Indicative credit estimate expressed are Pengyuan International’s view of credit quality derived from desktop analysis based on public information. Please see the research report for details.
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 29
• In terms of administrative levels, provincial-level LGFVs have higher indicative credit estimates than prefecture-
level LGFVs, and similarly, prefecture-level LGFVs have higher indicative credit estimates than county-level
LGFVs
• Despite the fact that the western region’s economy is weaker than those in the eastern and the central region,
the LGFVs from the western region do not necessarily have lower indicative credit estimates
LGFV’s Indicative Credit Estimate Distribution by Administrative Level And Geographic Locations
Indicative Credit Estimate LGFV LGFV LGFV LGFV LGFV LGFV LGFV
Province Prefecture County Eastern Central Western Northeast
{AAA}
{AA+}
{AA}
{BBB+} 2 22 7 13 10 7 1
{BBB} 2 18 14 21 3 9 1
{BBB-} 1 26 19 21 10 15
{BB+} 1 15 14 16 3 12
{BB} 8 6 10 1 2 1
{BB-} 5 4 4 3 1
{B+}
{B}
{B-}
{CCC+}
{CCC/CCC-}
Total 22 111 67 100 38 59 3
• Indicative credit estimate expressed are Pengyuan International’s view of credit quality derived from desktop analysis based on public information. Please see the research report for details.
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 30
• The difference between indicative SACP and indicative credit estimate for LGFVs and GREs is significant
• For general corporates, the difference between indicative SACP and indicative credit estimate is much smaller,
and only a few companies receive meaningful and accountable support from their parents
• General corporates, on average have much lower credit quality than LGFVs and GREs, with an average score of
6.7, which is equivalent to “{BB}”. The median indicative credit estimate is “{BB-}”, three notches lower than the
overall average
Average of Indicative Credit Estimates and Indicative SACP by Industry
10.9
9.7
6.7
4.5
5.9
3.0
9.3
6.7
n=534 *translated using {AAA}=18 and minus 1 point for each notch
transparent colored includes general corporates only
Indicative credit estimates
Indicative SACP Mean
• Indicative credit estimate expressed are Pengyuan International’s view of credit quality derived from desktop analysis based on public information. Please see the research report for details.
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 31
• There is only a handful of general corporate issuers whose indicative credit estimates score higher than or equal
to “{A}”, and only about 25% of corporates have investment grade indicative credit estimates
• Only information technology issuers have a median score above investment grade
General Corporates’ Indicative Credit Estimate Distribution by Industry
Indicative
Credit
Estimate
Information
Consumer
{BBB-} 2 3 1 4 2 12
{BB+} 1 2 2 8 2 2 17
{BB} 3 13 1 1 4 22
{BB-} 1 2 6 19 1 1 4 34
{B+} 2 3 13 1 1 1 6 27
{B} 1 1 1 12 1 1 1 18
{B-} 2 4 12 1 1 20
{CCC+} 5 1 6
{CCC/CCC-} 3 1 1 5
Total 15 10 11 19 98 6 8 4 2 31 204
• Indicative credit estimate expressed are Pengyuan International’s view of credit quality derived from desktop analysis based on public information. Please see the research report for details.
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 32
Business Profile Score Distribution Financial Profile Score Distribution
• The business profiles were evaluated on a seven-point scale ranging from “vulnerable” to “very strong”. The
financial profiles were evaluated on an eighteen-point scale ranging from “highly leveraged” to “minimal”
• In the sample, the business profile of these samples is generally weak, with about 58% issuers falling below
“moderate” business profile category, and that the majority of these companies have high leverage level, with
approximately 48% being “highly leveraged”
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 33
• LGFVs have very weak financial profile
• Energy sector has the worst combined profile, as the majority of energy companies that have issued offshore
bonds are exploration and production (E&P) related equipment manufacturers, which are highly volatile, cyclical
and have the risk of falling off
• Healthcare companies generally have a strong niche and a track record of stable cash flow generation
• GREs typically have very strong business profiles owing to the fact that they are backed by administrative
policies and enjoy a sizable market share
LGFV
GRE
Utilities
F in
a n
c ia
l P
ro fi
V e
ry S
tr o
n g
V e
ry W
e a
Bubble size indicates the aggregate asset size of the industry
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 34
Leverage Profile and Profitability by Sector
• Consumer staples have the best leverage profile because of their strong and stable cash generation ability and
modest financial leverage
• LGFVs have some of the worst leverage profiles due to their weak cashflow generation and extremely high
leverage
• Issuers of consumer discretionary and information technology businesses, have a net cash position on average
LGFV
GRE
Energy Consumer Discretionary
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0
P ro
fi ta
b il
it y
V e
ry W
e a
k V
e ry
S tr
o n
Bubble size indicates the aggregate asset size of the industry
Source: https://www.pyrating.com/publications/publicationsDetail/Research-Publication-Measuring-the-Creditworthiness-of-Chinas-Corporates- Using-a-Global-Rating-Scale.html 35
• GREs and information technology companies are, on average, significantly larger than the rest, while energy and
healthcare companies are the smallest
• Information technology, healthcare, consumer staples, materials and consumer discretionary have significant
cash holdings and short-term investments, and thus have a low net debt to EBITDA ratio, although some of
which have a relatively high gross debt to capitalization ratio
Key Financials based on latest FY information
Per Company LGFV GRE General IT Utilities Health-
care Industrial
Estate Staples Materials Comm. Energy Discret. Total
Revenue 11.9 206.1 61.2 147.7 15.8 12.0 60.7 50.9 54.8 47.1 19.4 4.0 98.7 78.0
EBITDA 1.4 23.1 10.1 21.3 3.8 2.7 10.7 10.3 7.2 7.5 6.6 0.8 10.8 10.0
Assets 106.2 433.1 190.5 209.7 54.9 30.8 214.3 258.4 47.5 80.9 53.3 10.6 137.8 218.0
Selected Ratios (Latest FY information)
EBITDA Margin 12.2% 11.2% 16.5% 14.4% 24.0% 22.1% 17.6% 20.2% 13.1% 16.0% 34.1% 19.1% 10.9% 12.9%
Net
Debt/EBITDA 25.7x 3.2x 2.4x -0.8x 3.7x 1.6x 2.9x 4.1x 0.3x 2.6x 3.7x 3.4x -0.3x 4.1x
Gross
Debt/Capita. 50.7% 44.5% 42.3% 27.5% 41.1% 33.7% 41.0% 47.6% 23.1% 44.4% 63.9% 46.2% 30.6% 45.2%
• China's onshore and offshore bond markets have grown rapidly over the last decade
• Foreign participation in China's bond market remains extremely limited
• While foreign investors' access to China's onshore bond market has significantly improved, foreign investors
continue to primarily hold sovereign and quasi-sovereign bonds
• Among other things, the absence of globally comparable credit ratings creates a barrier for many international
investors who rely on global scale ratings to guide their investment and risk management decisions
• Pengyuan International has adopted a global rating system in order to facilitate international investors'
understanding of the Chinese bond markets and to make it easier for them to compare debt securities from
different countries
• Utilizing a globally recognized rating system enables greater segregation of credit scores for distinct companies
than China’s domestic rating system, which appears to have limited credit differentiation
How Can Pengyuan International Help You Accessing China?
Pengyuan International reserves the ultimate right of interpretation of the products&services provided 37
0
20
40
Rating Median
Meetings with Pengyuan International’s analysts (non-fee basis)
Private Credit Assessment (investor-paid)
38
Ke Chen, is the Chief Analytics Officer of Pengyuan International and serves as a member of the company’s Board
of Directors He is also a Responsible Officer of Pengyuan International within the meaning of the SFO licensed to
carry out Type 10 regulated activity under the SFO
Before joining Pengyuan International, he worked as a Lead Quantitative Analyst at S&P Global Ratings He joined
S&P Global Ratings New York office in 2011 and was later transferred to the Hong Kong office He conducted
academic research at the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign on econometrics models for forecasting
corporate default rates prior to joining S&P Global Ratings
Ke holds an MA in Economics from the University of British Columbia, an MS in Statistics and a PhD in Economics
from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Ke Chen, PhD
Chief Analytics Officer
Business Management
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Q&A
BOND CONNECT SERIES EVENT – MINI SEMINAR ZOOMING INTO CHINA’S BOND MARKET
Measuring the Creditworthiness of China’s Corporates Using a Global Rating Scale
18th August 2021 (Wednesday) 4:00-5:10pm (HKT)
Thank You
For any enquiries, please contact:
Bond Connect Company Limited Unit 4701, 47/F., Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Central, Hong Kong
Tel: (+852) 2327 0567 Email: [email protected]
BOND CONNECT SERIES EVENT – MINI SEMINAR ZOOMING INTO CHINA’S BOND MARKET
Measuring the Creditworthiness of China’s Corporates Using a Global Rating Scale
18th August 2021 (Wednesday) 4:00-5:10pm (HKT)