Measuring Performance in Advertising Effectiveness
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Transcript of Measuring Performance in Advertising Effectiveness
Neo@Ogilvy
Measuring Performance in
Advertising Effectiveness
Jorge Ruiz
Good Attribution helps fuel Performance
• Clients need assurances that our advertising performance is attributable…• …yet “attribution” means many things to different people
Digital Attribution
Cross-Channel Attribution
• For how many days can I take credit for view-based conversions?
• Should I keep investing in placements that don’t drive a lot of immediate conversions?
• Which channels within my campaign drive the best Brand Awareness / Intent lifts?
• What is my optimal channel mix through to sales?
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Cross-Channel
Digital
Implement at Launch… …Roadmap when scale and budget affords
How we drive Performance through Attribution
Display View-through Test
Display Brand & Behavior Lifts
Advanced Attribution (Algorithmic)
Ad-Exposure Cross-Media Research Dynamic Mix Modeling
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Client needs will drive where and how you start. Here is our approach:
Let’s start with Digital Attribution
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You have to start by asking: “Whither the click?”
• Ample evidence that the View-Thru effect is incremental
Neo@Ogilvy Display View-thru NormsCategory Pct Lift Optimal Window
Credit Cards +12% First 12 hours
Consumer Electronics +11% Same DayInsurance – Personal +54% 1 dayTravel +42% 3 days
Trading – Options +35% 7 days
Trading – Stock +28% 10 days
Insurance - Auto +74% 15 days
Industry POV
"The comScore norms data provide compelling empirical support for the belief that there is a quantifiable view-thru impact of online ad exposures on brand value and sales. For the studies in which both retailers' online and offline sales were analyzed, for periods ranging from two weeks to three months after the initial exposure to an online display ad, the incremental online sales lift was 27 percent and offline sales lift was 17 percent. “ *
* http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2008/11/Value_of_Online_Advertising
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Where possible, implement behavioral lift tests
• You can do this with any Ad-Server Audience segmentation or through a cookie-panel research partner
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vs. non-converters with same media placementsvs. mice that did not survive with same treatment
To do Digital Attribution right you have to use a model with a ‘hold-out’ group
Measure the attributable survival rate of a lab mice exposed to multiple protein sequences
Measure the attributable conversion rate of a consumer exposed to multiple media placements
Attribution for Medical Researchers Attribution for Marketing Researchers
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Cookie ID: 1234Session ID: 5678
• This is why an ‘Algorithmic’ approach should be a standard
ConvertersNon-Converters
Incremental probability of true conversion ‘weight’
Good attribution models fuel Performance
• Here is how we found ‘growth’ placements, minimized low-performers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Conv
ersio
ns A
ttrib
uted
Ad ID Rank (by LT Attribution)
Banner Attribution by Ad ID
Model Attribution
LT Attribution
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Campaign Placements (Ranked by # of Conversions)
…then help me predict Search opportunity
Old Rank: placements by # ‘Last-Touch’ conversions
New Rank: placements by # ‘Attributable’ conversions
First, help me attribute Digital placements…
# Co
nver
sions Travel Endemic
Abandoners
Each dot in this chart is a Placement from Model 1
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Going Beyond Digital into Cross-Channel
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A few Cross-Channel Effectiveness Methods
Cross-Media Ad Effectiveness Studies• Typical output of cross-media work is to show what
combination of media exposure can yield the biggest brand & Sales lifts
• An advantage is that it can go live with a new campaign and scale up /down over time
Econometric Mix Models• Mix Models are more useful for the broader, long-
term measurement of how spend over time influences activity
• An advantage is that it can account for external business factors and allow for solid financial simulations
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For measuring brand campaigns, cross-media can leverage latest research innovations• For example, when running campaigns with Brand Awareness/Intent goals, cross-media
results can tell you the right channel mix, but not always its total impact to sales
Known Impact Modeled Impact
1 Channel2 Channel Combo3 Channel Combo
Total Impact (Campaign Incremental)
Awareness
Favor.
P.I.
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Paid/Owned/Earned? Latest Mix models can take into account the indirect effect
• Old Models: linear solution New Models: Account for indirect consumer behavior
Paid Media
‘love’
New market mix models can better account for all the non-linear interactions…
…and help break down the optimal effective contribution to a business goal
* Beyond Fans and Tweets: Measuring the Impact of Social Media,The Stern Center for Measurable Marketing, NYU, Oct 2011 12
2 other things to consider to drive Performance
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Personalization via Social CRM
• We’re already seeing success with this kind of tactic
• But a simple CRM upload is not enough– Creative– Context– Call-to-Action / Offer
http://techcrunch.com/2012/10/11/facebook-custom-audience-ads/ 14
Personalization via Revenue Management
• The best personalization is often the one under the hood and is purely focused on revenue management
http://aws.amazon.com/solutions/case-studies/ticketmaster/ 15
In summary…
1. Define what is attribution to you
2. Plan to socialize your projects as a ‘framework’ to solve one step at a time
3. Know your audience and the breadth/depth (macro/micro) of the analysis needed
4. To measure offline and online together as ‘cross-channel’ toward predicting key business goals, two research methods continue to be the most utilized: Mix models or Cross-Media Surveys
5. When thinking of personalization beyond site engagement, SocialCRM or Revenue Management solutions are two areas with big opportunity
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