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Measuring Migration: Best Practices in Censuses and Household Surveys
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Transcript of Measuring Migration: Best Practices in Censuses and Household Surveys
Measuring Migration: Measuring Migration: Best Practices in Censuses Best Practices in Censuses
and Household Surveysand Household Surveys
Gero CarlettoGero Carletto
Carlo AzzarriCarlo Azzarri
BackgroundBackground Migration policy research hampered Migration policy research hampered
by availability of databy availability of data Definitions and measurements of Definitions and measurements of
migration varies migration varies acrossacross and and withinwithin countries (from ≠ sources), and countries (from ≠ sources), and overtimeovertime
Best practices?Best practices?• Lack of consensusLack of consensus• Who is an international migrant?Who is an international migrant?• What type of migration?What type of migration?
What type of migration?What type of migration?
Flow vs. StockFlow vs. Stock Immigrant vs emigrant (net migration)Immigrant vs emigrant (net migration) Permanent/L-T vs. temporary/S-TPermanent/L-T vs. temporary/S-T Circular, returneesCircular, returnees InternalInternal Undocumented/irregularUndocumented/irregular International migrants vs. international International migrants vs. international
migration (multiple moves)migration (multiple moves)
Different definitions/dimensions, different Different definitions/dimensions, different sourcessources
OutlineOutline
Concepts and definitionsConcepts and definitions Data sourcesData sources Sampling and survey optionsSampling and survey options Questionnaire contents/designQuestionnaire contents/design Conclusions and next stepsConclusions and next steps
ConceptsConcepts (Change in) Place of usual residence(Change in) Place of usual residence Time/duration of stayTime/duration of stay Purpose of stayPurpose of stay CitizenshipCitizenship Place of birthPlace of birth
Alone or in combinations …Alone or in combinations …• in which order?in which order?• for which purpose?for which purpose?
Used differently by different sources and Used differently by different sources and depending on objectivedepending on objective
Definition of Int’l Mig (FLOW)Definition of Int’l Mig (FLOW) An An international migrantinternational migrant is a is a
person who changes his/her own person who changes his/her own country of country of usual residence usual residence (UN RSIM, (UN RSIM, Rev. 1)Rev. 1)• Place of usual residence?Place of usual residence?
“… “… normally spends daily period of rest”normally spends daily period of rest” Usual ≠ legalUsual ≠ legal Boarding students? “Weekly commuters”?Boarding students? “Weekly commuters”?
• No provision for …No provision for … Duration of stayDuration of stay Purpose of movePurpose of move
Long- vs. Short-term migrants Long- vs. Short-term migrants (UN RSIM Rev 1.)(UN RSIM Rev 1.)
A A long-term migrantlong-term migrant is a person who is a person who moves to a country other than that of moves to a country other than that of his/her usual residence his/her usual residence for a period of at for a period of at least a year (12 months)least a year (12 months)
A A short-term migrantshort-term migrant is a person who is a person who moves to a country other than that of moves to a country other than that of his/her usual residence his/her usual residence for a period of at for a period of at least 3 months but less than a year (12 least 3 months but less than a year (12 months)months) (except for recreation, holiday, (except for recreation, holiday, business, medical treatment, …)business, medical treatment, …)
Definition of Int’l mig.(STOCK)Definition of Int’l mig.(STOCK) ““Persons who have ever changed Persons who have ever changed
their country of usual residence i.e. their country of usual residence i.e. spent at least 1 year in a country spent at least 1 year in a country other than the one in which they live other than the one in which they live at the time data gathered” (UN RSIM at the time data gathered” (UN RSIM Rev. 1)Rev. 1)
Relevant population groups:Relevant population groups:• foreigners foreigners (non-citizens of country of usual (non-citizens of country of usual
residence)residence)• foreign-born foreign-born (born in country other than one (born in country other than one
in which they are being enumerated)in which they are being enumerated)• provisions for 14 special groupsprovisions for 14 special groups
Alternative definition Alternative definition (Bilsborrow et al, 1997)(Bilsborrow et al, 1997)
““An international migrant is a person who An international migrant is a person who have livedhave lived for at least for at least 6 months6 months in a in a country country other thanother than that in which they are that in which they are being interviewed and whose move into being interviewed and whose move into the country of interview occurred during the country of interview occurred during the the 5 years5 years preceding the interview” preceding the interview”
… … but definition assumes presence!but definition assumes presence!
Complementary definition Complementary definition (Bilsborrow et al., 1997)(Bilsborrow et al., 1997)
““An international migrant is a person who An international migrant is a person who
used to liveused to live in the country in which the in the country in which the interview is being conducted and was a interview is being conducted and was a member of the householdmember of the household of the person of the person being interviewed but who left at some being interviewed but who left at some point in time during the point in time during the 5 years5 years preceding preceding the interview to live abroad for at least the interview to live abroad for at least 6 6 monthsmonths””
Operationalizing definitionsOperationalizing definitions
Usual Place of residenceUsual Place of residence Some countries do not use concept of Some countries do not use concept of
“migrant”“migrant” Why 3-6-12 months?Why 3-6-12 months? Intended vs. actual duration of stay?Intended vs. actual duration of stay?
at time of arrival based on intentionat time of arrival based on intention upon completion of 12-month periodupon completion of 12-month period
Lots of provisions!Lots of provisions!
Data sourcesData sources
Population registersPopulation registers Other administrative recordsOther administrative records Population censusesPopulation censuses SurveysSurveys
Data sources: Pop RegistersData sources: Pop Registers PROS PROS
• ContinuousContinuous• Measure of FLOWS (consistent with STOCKS)Measure of FLOWS (consistent with STOCKS)• De factoDe facto duration of stay/absence (if centralized) duration of stay/absence (if centralized)
CONSCONS• Not run by NSO; coordinationNot run by NSO; coordination• Only limited informationOnly limited information• Often not public accessOften not public access• Often only nationals; only documentedOften only nationals; only documented• (dis)Incentive to register/deregister(dis)Incentive to register/deregister• IntendedIntended vs. actual duration of stay vs. actual duration of stay• Quality variability (if decentralized) Quality variability (if decentralized) • Feasible for LDCs? (EU from PopCensus to Registers)Feasible for LDCs? (EU from PopCensus to Registers)
Only 15 countries reporting flows figures (mostly Only 15 countries reporting flows figures (mostly from pop registers; UK, NZ from border statistics)from pop registers; UK, NZ from border statistics)
Data sources: Other admin recordsData sources: Other admin records
Border crossings (flows)Border crossings (flows) Registry of foreign workersRegistry of foreign workers Embassy/consular dataEmbassy/consular data Resident permit holders/applicantsResident permit holders/applicants Diaspora organizations/NGOs in D countryDiaspora organizations/NGOs in D country Emigration clearance certificatesEmigration clearance certificates Destination country sourcesDestination country sources
… … often incomplete both in coverage and often incomplete both in coverage and contentcontent
Data sources: PopCensusData sources: PopCensus Most reliable source of internationally Most reliable source of internationally
comparable IMMIGRANT comparable IMMIGRANT stocksstocks. .
PROS PROS • Universal coverageUniversal coverage• Some characterization possible, based on basic Some characterization possible, based on basic
demographics and socio-economic, e.g.:demographics and socio-economic, e.g.: Gender (feminization of migration)Gender (feminization of migration) Age (SSS; fertility)Age (SSS; fertility) Occupation (workforce)Occupation (workforce) Educational level (brain drain/gain)Educational level (brain drain/gain)
Data sources: PopCensus Data sources: PopCensus (cont’d)(cont’d)
CONSCONS• Every 10 yearsEvery 10 years• Limited information (policy analysis?)Limited information (policy analysis?)• Poor/delayed tabulationPoor/delayed tabulation• Low training of enumerators/data qualityLow training of enumerators/data quality• Different approaches/definitionDifferent approaches/definition
De factoDe facto (present population) vs. (present population) vs. de jurede jure (usual (usual population)population)
14 sub-groups for special treatment14 sub-groups for special treatment• Under-coverageUnder-coverage
Entire families that movedEntire families that moved Seasonal/temporary, circular (night prior to census Seasonal/temporary, circular (night prior to census
date)date) Marginal groups (undocumented migrants?)Marginal groups (undocumented migrants?)
• Housing arrangements, language, distrust, mobility, …Housing arrangements, language, distrust, mobility, …
Data sources: PopCensus Data sources: PopCensus (cont’d)(cont’d)
0 50 100 150 200 250
Oceania
Europe
Asia
America, South
America, North
Africa
Total
Number of countries
Having census data
Having data on migrantstock
(Chen, 2006)(Chen, 2006)
Data sources: PopCensus Data sources: PopCensus (cont’d)(cont’d)
Only 1 country in 89 compliant with UN Only 1 country in 89 compliant with UN RSIM Rev.1 (of 153; of 196)!RSIM Rev.1 (of 153; of 196)!
11 countries “close” to definition11 countries “close” to definition citizenship (93 countries)citizenship (93 countries)
• statelessstateless place of birth (112 countries)place of birth (112 countries)
• new countriesnew countries PoR at some point in time in the past (88 PoR at some point in time in the past (88
countries)countries)
(Chen, 2006)(Chen, 2006)
Data sources: PopCensus – emigrants?Data sources: PopCensus – emigrants? Self-reporting about “absentees”: based on socio-Self-reporting about “absentees”: based on socio-
econ status (hh membership)econ status (hh membership) Two (indirect) methods based on demographics Two (indirect) methods based on demographics
(IUSSP)(IUSSP)• Place of Residence (PoR) of siblingsPlace of Residence (PoR) of siblings• PoR of children (complementing existing sources; split PoR of children (complementing existing sources; split
surviving children by PoR)surviving children by PoR) Even more limited information on emigrantsEven more limited information on emigrants
• Less “flexibility”Less “flexibility”• No sensitive info (affect coverage)No sensitive info (affect coverage)• Feasible at all?Feasible at all?
Quality of informationQuality of information• Proxy respondentProxy respondent• Enumerator’s trainingEnumerator’s training
Balance equation/residual (Albania)Balance equation/residual (Albania) Using data from PopCensus in D countries?Using data from PopCensus in D countries?
Data sources: SurveysData sources: Surveys Despite “hype”, haphazard effortsDespite “hype”, haphazard efforts Little attention in …Little attention in …
• UN RSIM Rev 1.UN RSIM Rev 1.• EGM recommendations:EGM recommendations:““Countries should explore the possibility of using sample surveys Countries should explore the possibility of using sample surveys
to collect data on international migration, especially for those to collect data on international migration, especially for those aspects for which no other sources are available”aspects for which no other sources are available”
PROSPROS• In-depth analysisIn-depth analysis
determinants, distributional analysis, determinants, distributional analysis, impact (??)impact (??)• More flexibilityMore flexibility• Emigration (last resort?)Emigration (last resort?)
CONSCONS• Rare event, clusteredRare event, clustered• Sampling errorSampling error• Sampling frame (emigrants)Sampling frame (emigrants)• Richer info but … still limitations through proxy Richer info but … still limitations through proxy
respondentsrespondents
Survey options: prob vs. non-probSurvey options: prob vs. non-prob
Probability: finding rare eventsProbability: finding rare events• Huge sample?Huge sample?• 8 procedures (Kish, 1965)8 procedures (Kish, 1965)
DisproportionateDisproportionate Two-phaseTwo-phase
Non-probabilityNon-probability• Case studiesCase studies• Purposive geo selection (NIDI/Eurostat)Purposive geo selection (NIDI/Eurostat)• SnowballSnowball• Aggregation point intercept (Brazil-Aggregation point intercept (Brazil-
Nikkei)Nikkei)
Survey options: HH vs. non-HHSurvey options: HH vs. non-HH Passenger surveysPassenger surveys
• UK IPS (flows)UK IPS (flows) Low incidenceLow incidence Short questionnaireShort questionnaire
HH surveysHH surveys• Specialized Specialized
Preferred option but …Preferred option but …• Too costly/unfeasibleToo costly/unfeasible• Limited thematic coverageLimited thematic coverage
• Piggy-backingPiggy-backing Richer info (welfare?) but shorter migration moduleRicher info (welfare?) but shorter migration module Marginal costsMarginal costs Sampling issuesSampling issues LSMS/IHS (small sample; Albania), HBS/IES (high non-LSMS/IHS (small sample; Albania), HBS/IES (high non-
response; “resistance”); LFS (larger sample; response; “resistance”); LFS (larger sample; frequency; no welfare; Philippines)frequency; no welfare; Philippines)
Survey on Overseas Filipinos (SOF)Survey on Overseas Filipinos (SOF) Long tradition; now integral part of LFS.Long tradition; now integral part of LFS. 1982: 1-page rider to ISH1982: 1-page rider to ISH 1987: part of LFS (OFW only)1987: part of LFS (OFW only) 1993: expanded module, renamed (OF)1993: expanded module, renamed (OF) 2003: Master sample (51,000 HHs) 2003: Master sample (51,000 HHs) Estimates and characterize stock of Estimates and characterize stock of
overseas Filipinos, including OFW overseas Filipinos, including OFW (presently AND temporarily working (presently AND temporarily working overseas in last 5 year period) [1.2M in overseas in last 5 year period) [1.2M in 2004]2004]
Questionnaire Questionnaire
Contents / DesignContents / Design
Identifying a migrant in HHIdentifying a migrant in HH
Approach 1: “Typical” LSMS/IHSApproach 1: “Typical” LSMS/IHS• Self-reported hh membership Self-reported hh membership (“usually” eat and (“usually” eat and
live together)live together)
• No. months absent in past 12 months No. months absent in past 12 months Provisions, for HH head, new-comers …Provisions, for HH head, new-comers …
Several drawback:Several drawback:• Permanent migrants?Permanent migrants?• Exclusion based on arbitrary cut-offExclusion based on arbitrary cut-off• AmbiguousAmbiguous• Misses entire HHsMisses entire HHs
Identifying a migrant in HH Identifying a migrant in HH (cont’d)(cont’d)
Approach 2: Approach 2: ““in the last 5 years, did anyone in the last 5 years, did anyone who liveswho lives
or livedor lived with you go to live in another with you go to live in another country?”country?”
Captures recent migrants but …Captures recent migrants but …• Still ambiguousStill ambiguous• Arbitrary reference periodArbitrary reference period• Still misses entire HHsStill misses entire HHs
Identifying a migrant in HH Identifying a migrant in HH (cont’d)(cont’d)
Approach 3: Extended roster Approach 3: Extended roster (with flap)(with flap)
• List all present and former hh members List all present and former hh members irrespective of PoRirrespective of PoR
Captures all members but …Captures all members but …• Still ambiguousStill ambiguous• Incentive to underreport?Incentive to underreport?• Misses entire HHsMisses entire HHs
Identifying a migrant in HH Identifying a migrant in HH (cont’d)(cont’d)
Approach 4: Expanded fertility Approach 4: Expanded fertility module (Albania LSMS 2002)module (Albania LSMS 2002)• From 15-49 to “above 15”From 15-49 to “above 15”• List all women in age groupList all women in age group
List all children ever born from womanList all children ever born from woman PoR for still alivePoR for still alive
However …However …• Still possible undercountStill possible undercount
mother absentmother absent
• Misses entire HHsMisses entire HHs
Once identify (e)migrant …Once identify (e)migrant … How much information can you elicit How much information can you elicit
through proxy respondent? What’s the through proxy respondent? What’s the min-MAX amount of info?min-MAX amount of info?• Age, gender, occupation (before and during)Age, gender, occupation (before and during)• Length stay abroad/year of departure Length stay abroad/year of departure • Country of destinationCountry of destination• Living with spouse/childrenLiving with spouse/children• Legal status?Legal status?• Multiple episodes?Multiple episodes?
Recall methodsRecall methods• Less accurate through proxyLess accurate through proxy• Recall bias (Smith and Thomas, 2003; Som, Recall bias (Smith and Thomas, 2003; Som,
1973)1973)
Albania LSMS 2005Albania LSMS 2005 Expanded module on (permanent) Expanded module on (permanent)
migrants (non-hh members) plus migrants (non-hh members) plus contact information for tracking in D contact information for tracking in D countrycountry
Full histories and characterization of Full histories and characterization of migration of migration of currentcurrent household household members (15 years)members (15 years)
““Bound” gridBound” grid Clear time-marksClear time-marks
Migration histories of HH membersMigration histories of HH membersID CODEID CODE 19901990 19911991 19921992 19931993 19941994 19951995 19961996 19971997 19981998 19991999 20002000 20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005
CC MM CC MM CC MM CC MM CC MM CC MM CC MM CC MM CC MM CC MM CC MM CC MM CC MM CC MM CC MM CC MM
What if entire HH moves?What if entire HH moves? If dwelling occupiedIf dwelling occupied
• Ask new occupantAsk new occupant About locationAbout location About relatives still in communitiesAbout relatives still in communities
If dwelling vacant/destroyedIf dwelling vacant/destroyed• Ask neighborAsk neighbor• Ask neighbor about relative still in communityAsk neighbor about relative still in community
If “dwelling moved”?If “dwelling moved”?• Internal migrantsInternal migrants
““Restricted” universe of analysisRestricted” universe of analysis Track them? Feasible?Track them? Feasible?
Tracking migrantsTracking migrants
““Replace” proxy respondentReplace” proxy respondent IssuesIssues
• Info needsInfo needs• AttritionAttrition• CostsCosts
Albania (“forward” tracking)Albania (“forward” tracking) Tonga (“backward” tracking)Tonga (“backward” tracking)
Tracking Albanian migrants in GreeceTracking Albanian migrants in Greece Contact infoContact info ProcessProcess
• Greece only; list of migrants with contactsGreece only; list of migrants with contacts• 11stst contact in Greece contact in Greece• Return visit in Fall (phone cards)Return visit in Fall (phone cards)• 22ndnd contact in Greece contact in Greece• InterviewInterview
High attritionHigh attrition• No contact infoNo contact info• Unable to locateUnable to locate• Islands (high costs)Islands (high costs)• Refusal (not high)Refusal (not high)• Returnees/high mobilityReturnees/high mobility
Selection bias(es)? (undocumented aliens)Selection bias(es)? (undocumented aliens)
ConclusionsConclusions Standards not uniformly adopted across Standards not uniformly adopted across
and within countries (depending on and within countries (depending on source), and changingsource), and changing
Definition to be adopted depends on Definition to be adopted depends on objective at hand and sub-populations of objective at hand and sub-populations of interestinterest
Census: stock, but …Census: stock, but … Registers: flows, but …Registers: flows, but … Survey: Surprisingly, still little attention …Survey: Surprisingly, still little attention … ““Weakest link”: emigration!Weakest link”: emigration!
• Better estimationsBetter estimations• Better characterizationBetter characterization• Better sampling framesBetter sampling frames
Next steps: WB’s role?Next steps: WB’s role?
2010 Round of PopCensus2010 Round of PopCensus• Influence Qx designInfluence Qx design• Min set of questions on immigrant stockMin set of questions on immigrant stock• Question on Emigrant?Question on Emigrant?
Approximation for stratification in sampling frameApproximation for stratification in sampling frame
Improve admin recordsImprove admin records• TFSCBTFSCB• Register (if available) and/or border crossingRegister (if available) and/or border crossing• Inter-institutional collaborationInter-institutional collaboration• Data accessData access
Next steps: WB’s role? Next steps: WB’s role? (cont’d)(cont’d)
HH surveysHH surveys• Support proper sample designsSupport proper sample designs
Sampling frames of emigrantsSampling frames of emigrants ““enhanced” PSU listing for 2-stageenhanced” PSU listing for 2-stage Oversampling in planned surveysOversampling in planned surveys
• Reduce undercount/misreportingReduce undercount/misreporting Fielding and validation of ≠ approaches Fielding and validation of ≠ approaches
(LSMSIV)(LSMSIV) Adjust for entire migrant householdsAdjust for entire migrant households
• Specialized vs. multi-purposeSpecialized vs. multi-purpose Better income-based measuresBetter income-based measures
Next steps: WB’s role?Next steps: WB’s role?(cont’d)(cont’d)
HH surveys HH surveys (cont’d)(cont’d)
• Improve contentImprove content Much more flexibility allowedMuch more flexibility allowed Emigrants, Returnees, … Emigrants, Returnees, … If migrant presentIf migrant present
• Histories of migrationHistories of migration• Retrospective data, determinantsRetrospective data, determinants
Through proxyThrough proxy• Minimal set of questions?Minimal set of questions?• Contact info for tracking (sub-sample?)Contact info for tracking (sub-sample?)
• Tracking surveysTracking surveys• Panel surveysPanel surveys
Make provision in baselineMake provision in baseline