M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of...

16
The Yorktown, CO M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. 11th Annual J.P. Morgan Homebuilding & Building Products Conference May 2018

Transcript of M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of...

Page 1: M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes

The Yorktown, CO

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. 11th Annual J.P. Morgan Homebuilding & Building Products Conference

May 2018

Page 2: M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes

Forward Looking Statements

Certain statements in this presentation, including statements regarding our business, financial

condition, results of operation, cash flows, strategies and prospects, constitute "forward-looking

statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such

forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors

that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of MDC to be materially

different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the

forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among other things, (1) general economic

conditions, including changes in consumer confidence, inflation or deflation and employment

levels; (2) changes in business conditions experienced by MDC, including cancellation rates, net

home orders, home gross margins, land and home values and subdivision counts; (3) changes

in interest rates, mortgage lending programs and the availability of credit; (4) changes in the

market value of MDC’s investments in marketable securities; (5) uncertainty in the mortgage

lending industry, including repurchase requirements associated with HomeAmerican Mortgage

Corporation’s sale of mortgage loans (6) the relative stability of debt and equity markets; (7)

competition; (8) the availability and cost of land and other raw materials used by MDC in its

homebuilding operations; (9) the availability and cost of performance bonds and insurance

covering risks associated with our business; (10) shortages and the cost of labor; (11) weather

related slowdowns and natural disasters; (12) slow growth initiatives; (13) building moratoria;

(14) governmental regulation, including the interpretation of tax, labor and environmental laws;

(15) terrorist acts and other acts of war; (16) changes in energy prices; and (17) other factors

over which MDC has little or no control. Additional information about the risks and uncertainties

applicable to MDC's business is contained in the Company’s Annual Report on form 10-Q for the

quarter ended March 31, 2018. All forward-looking statements made in this presentation are

made as of the date hereof, and the risk that actual results will differ materially from expectations

expressed in this press release will increase with the passage of time. The Company

undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new

information, future events or otherwise. However, any further disclosures made on related

subjects in our subsequent filings, releases or presentations should be consulted.

It should also be noted that SEC Regulation G requires that certain information accompany

the use of non-GAAP financial measures. Any information required by Regulation G will be

posted on our web site, www.mdcholdings.com.

The Arlington, CO

The Sage, NV

Page 3: M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes

Company Overview

3

Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in

the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes subsidiaries, we’ve

helped over 195,000 buyers move into new, quality homes across the country.

Homebuilding Operations:

Financial Services Business Units:

Seattle

Portland

(Coming Soon)

Salt Lake

City Las Vegas

Northern

California

Southern

California

Phoenix

Tucson

Metro

Denver

Colorado

Springs

Maryland

Northern Virginia

Jacksonville

Orlando

South Florida

AZ CA NV WA CO UT FL Mid-Atl Total

LTM Deliveries 798 880 897 391 1,510 228 430 425 5,559

% of Total 14.4% 15.8% 16.1% 7.0% 27.2% 4.1% 7.7% 7.6%

LTM ASP ('000s) $ 325 $ 620 $ 353 $525 $ 489 $435 $ 381 $ 507 $ 458

Data as of quarter ended March 31, 2018

Page 4: M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes

The MDC Difference

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Led By Two of the Industry’s Most Senior Veterans

CEO/COO with 87 years of combined experience at MDC

(ranked #1) vs. 42-year average for peer group

Industry-Leading Management Ownership

CEO/COO beneficial ownership of 26% (ranked #1) of

MDC shares vs. 5% average for peer group

Conservative Inventory Strategies Limit Risk

3.9 year supply of land for MDC (ranked #1) vs. 5.3 year

average for peer group

“Build-to-order” policy limits risk vs. speculative building

of unsold homes by peer group

Credit Profile Among the Best in the Industry

Moody’s: Ba2 / S&P: BB+ / Fitch: BBB-

Industry-Leading Dividend (ranked #1)

Current yield of 4.0% vs. 0.4% average for peer group*

Uninterrupted cash dividend since 1994 – unequalled by

any member of the peer group

In the past ten years, Company paid approximately $500

million in dividends to shareholders

Decades of experience has created long-term

shareholder value by successfully navigating through

multiple economic cycles

Aligns management’s interests with our shareholders

Inline with Company operating philosophy, emphasizing

risk management and financial stability while striving to

achieve long-term shareholder value

Commitment to maintaining a strong financial profile (1)

safeguards against inevitable market downturns and (2)

provides capital resources for opportunistic investments

Shows long-term commitment and ability to provide a

reliable source of return for our shareholders

How MDC is Different Why it Matters

* Dividend yield from Yahoo Finance, May 7, 2018

Peer group includes: Beazer Homes (BZH), D.R. Horton (DHI), Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (HOV), KB Home (KBH), Lennar (LEN), M/I Homes Inc. (MHO), Meritage Homes Corporation

(MTH), NVR, Inc. (NVR), PulteGroup (PHM), and Toll Brothers (TOL).

Page 5: M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes

3.9 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.0 6.7 6.7

MDC BZH KBH MTH HOV DHI NVR LEN* MHO PHM TOL

Creating A Sustainable Builder Operation

Across Cycles

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Conservative operating philosophy that minimizes land speculation, which improves returns

over the entire housing cycle and reduces our risk and exposure to land price volatility

No land banking, no joint ventures, and minimal goodwill

Generally target 2-3 year land supply

Significant portion of owned lots are finished (61% at March 31, 2018) -- minimal additional investment

required before start of home construction

No “mothballed” communities

Focus on presales, with 90% of work-in-process units already sold as of March 31, 2018

Approach is becoming more unique for MDC as more homebuilders move to a spec strategy

Strong merchandising and “Home Gallery” operations focus on customization niche within production

builder environment

Strict underwriting criteria and management discipline

Allows us to grow over the long run and retain prudent cash positions in order to weather the

cyclicality of the housing industry

Land Supply Held, in Years

Source: Company filings.

Note: Figures as of most recent quarter or annual public filing.

* Due to Lennar’s recent acquisition of Cal-Atlantic, year’s supply is based on current lots controlled divided by the estimated FY 2018 deliveries as stated in their 2018 Q1 Form 10-Q

Median:

5.3 years

Page 6: M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes

Overview - Q1 2018 vs. Q1 2017

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The Yorktown, CO

*All per share amounts have been adjusted as necessary for the 8% stock dividend declared and paid in the 2017 fourth quarter.

The Grove, CA

• Net income of $38.8 million, or $0.68 per diluted

share vs. $22.2 million, or $0.40 per diluted

share*

• Pretax income of $50.5 million vs. $36.4 million

• Home sale revenues increased 8% to $607.7

million

• Gross margin from home sales up 230 basis

points to 18.2% (up 90 basis points sequentially

from 2017 fourth quarter)

• Dollar value of net new orders up 15% year-

over-year to $863.7 million

– Monthly sales absorption pace up 19% to 4.19

• 4,072 lots approved for purchase, up 105%

• Liquidity increased 23% to $1.17 billion

Page 7: M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes

Forward-Looking Guidance*

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The Yorktown, CO

The Grove, CA

• Backlog dollar value at March 31, 2018 up 18%

year-over-year to $1.88 billion

– Gross margin from home sales in backlog at

3/31/2018 modestly exceeds 2018 first quarter

closing gross margin of 18.2%

– Backlog conversion ratio (home deliveries

divided by beginning backlog) for Q2 2018

estimated to be in the 39% to 40% range

• Active subdivision count at 3/31/2018 of 155, down

3% year-over-year but up 3% from 12/31/2017

• Targeting a 10% year-over-year increase in active

subdivision count by year end (from 151 at

12/31/2017 to at least 166 at 12/31/2018)

• Lots controlled of 21,453 at 3/31/2018, up 44%

year-over-year

• Revised estimate for full year 2018 effective tax rate

of 24% to 26%, excluding impact of any further

discrete items

*All guidance effective as of May 3, 2018

Auburn at Stonegate, CA

Page 8: M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes

YoY Change in Gross Margin %

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230 bps

180 bps

150 bps

100 bps 100 bps 90 bps 90 bps

40 bps

10 bps

-60 bps

N/A*

MDC HOV KBH BZH DHI MTH NVR PHM TOL MHO LEN

Source: Company filings.

Note: Figures as of most recent quarter or annual public filing.

* LEN change omitted due to YoY impact on comparability as a result of the merger with CAA

Page 9: M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes

Adjusted Gross Margin from Home Sales*

9 *Before impairments and warranty adjustments. See end of presentation for reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

14.5%

16.9%

19.3%

22.3%

23.2% 23.0%

24.1%

27.7% 28.4%

22.2%

13.9%

11.7%

14.6%

16.8%

14.0%

15.5%

17.8%

16.9% 16.7% 16.8% 17.1%

18.8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q12018

+870 bps

Proven ability to grow

gross margin quickly

Q1 ‘18 up 200 bps YoY from Q1’ 17 and 130 bps sequentially

from Q4 ‘17

Page 10: M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes

Product Spotlight - Seasons

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The Peridot, AZ

The Citrine, CO

The Coral, CO

The Moonstone, FL

Q1 2018 Activity

47% of total lots approved for acquisition / 24% of total lots acquired

15% of total homes sold / 11% of total homes delivered

Page 11: M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes

Product Spotlight - Landmark

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The Coronado, CO The Yorktown, CO

The Bedford, UT

The Hopewell, AZ

Q1 2018 Activity

19% of total lots approved for acquisition / 22% of total lots acquired

10% of total homes sold / 7% of total homes delivered

Page 12: M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes

Product Spotlight – Cityscapes / Infill / Duplexes

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The Norris, CO (Duplexes)

The Norah, CO (Duplexes)

Page 13: M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes

Product Spotlight - RV Garages & Luxury

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The Damon, AZ (RV Series)

The Deacon, AZ (RV Series)

The Reilly, CA

The Robert, AZ

Page 14: M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes

Land Acquisition & Approval Activity

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344 678

374 544 420 695

926 1,215 1,170

121

448 682

589 893

887

1,078 683

1,334

465

1,126 1,056 1,133 1,313

1,582

2,004 1,898

2,504

Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18

Lots Acquired by Quarter

Lots - Finished Lots - Development Required

Continued focus on land acquisition following strong top-side growth

321

1,792 1,357 1,560

1,985

3,342

2,489 2,566

4,072

Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18

Lots Approved by Quarter

Page 15: M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes

Willow at Emerson, CA

Page 16: M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.€¦ · Company Overview 3 Founded in 1972, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. is one of the leading homebuilders in the United States. Through our Richmond American Homes

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“Gross Margin from Home Sales, before imp. and war. adj.” is a non-GAAP financial measure, and should not be considered in isolation

or as an alternative to performance measures prescribed by GAAP. The table below reconciles “Gross Margin from Home Sales, before

imp. and war. adj.” to gross margin as calculated based on GAAP. We believe the measure is meaningful to investors as management uses

it to isolate the impact that warranty adjustments and impairments have on our gross margins.

Q1

2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

Gross Margin 110,506$ 414,959$ 363,423$ 298,226$ 280,691$ 289,317$ 177,094$ 106,601$ 155,079$ 124,907$ (118,668)$

Less: Land Sales Revenue - (4,547) (5,700) (12,337) (3,233) (2,468) (5,144) (11,859) (5,883) (30,730) (60,050)

Add: Land Cost of Sales - 4,440 4,866 12,611 2,559 1,961 4,823 10,796 5,366 25,038 53,847

Gross Margin from Home Sales 110,506$ 414,852$ 362,589$ 298,500$ 280,017$ 288,810$ 176,773$ 105,539$ 154,562$ 119,215$ (124,871)$

Add: Inventory Impairments 550 10,010 10,173 9,993 1,760 919 1,105 12,965 21,195 30,986 298,155

Less: Warranty Adjustments 3,106 1,341 7,462 189 (2,600) - - (5,478) (20,845) (27,783) (14,011)

Gross Margin from Home Sales, 114,162$ 426,203$ 380,224$ 308,682$ 279,177$ 289,729$ 177,878$ 113,026$ 154,912$ 122,417$ 159,273$

before imp. and war. adj. 18.8% 17.1% 16.8% 16.7% 16.9% 17.8% 15.5% 14.0% 16.8% 14.6% 11.7%

2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997

Gross Margin (350,466)$ 919,992$ 1,363,151$ 1,088,585$ 688,088$ 520,664$ 477,158$ 377,071$ 294,702$ 205,483$ 132,443$

Less: Land Sales Revenue (50,130) (34,611) (2,995) (8,898) (1,298) (6,022) (2,909) (6,641) (8,114) (13,964) (9,978)

Add: Land Cost of Sales 59,529 33,491 1,861 8,783 842 4,600 1,105 4,293 5,767 9,700 7,740

Gross Margin from Home Sales (341,067)$ 918,872$ 1,362,017$ 1,088,470$ 687,632$ 519,242$ 475,354$ 374,723$ 292,355$ 201,219$ 130,205$

Add: Inventory Impairments 726,621 112,027 - - - - 7,041 4,200 2,242 5,300 5,850

Less: Warranty Adjustments - - - - - - - - - - -

Gross Margin from Home Sales, 385,554$ 1,030,899$ 1,362,017$ 1,088,470$ 687,632$ 519,242$ 482,395$ 378,923$ 294,597$ 206,519$ 136,055$

before imp. and war. adj. 13.9% 22.2% 28.4% 27.7% 24.1% 23.0% 23.2% 22.3% 19.3% 16.9% 14.5%

Year Ended December 31,

Year Ended December 31,

(Dollars in thousands)

(Dollars in thousands)

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures