McK a a Industrial Trucks

16
7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 1/16   Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 1/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. Uplift:  Profiling the industrial truck market The machinery industry has been a highly globalized business for a long time now. However, looking at the varying maturity levels of regional markets, customized market strategies and a product offering that ranges from premium to low cost are becoming increasingly important success factors. Therefore, having a granular understanding of market dynamics and price segments provides an important basis for identifying winning strategies. This report focuses on the industrial truck industry as an example to illustrate McKinsey's approach. by Michael Ball, Cornelius Baur, Maximilian Dicenta, Mathias Gerlach, Jan Harre, Christian Malorny, and Ulf Oesterlin What does the future hold for the global industrial truck market? McKinsey & Company launched an initiative to answer this and other questions regarding this 27 billion Euro industry. Drawing upon quantitative econometric modeling and numerous interviews with industry experts, dealers and customers, as well as extensive secondary research, this initiative provides new clarity on the global forklift market’s current size and structure, market growth and trends 1 , and insights on price segments. The goal is to provide leaders with fresh insights regarding this evolving industry.  A key segment of the material handling industry, industrial trucks occupy the middle ground between palletizing and logistics equipment, such as truck- mounted forklift and heavy-duty loading equipment (e.g., container handlers and cranes). Three main segments exist, with the first two – internal combustion (IC) 1  This market forecast cannot offer any guarantee of a specific future path as many uncertainties underlie the industry’s development. However, McKinsey’s research reveals indications of the trends described, and we very much hope this report will be of assistance to decision-markers in this industry. In preparing this market report, McKinsey has relied on the accuracy and completeness of the available information, and has not undertaken independent verification of the accuracy or completeness of such information. McKinsey does not assume any responsibility towards any persons for the correctness of the information contained in this market report.

Transcript of McK a a Industrial Trucks

Page 1: McK a a Industrial Trucks

7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 1/16

 

 Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 

1/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. 

Uplift: Profiling the industrial truck

market

The machinery industry has been a highly globalized business for a long

time now. However, looking at the varying maturity levels of regional

markets, customized market strategies and a product offering that ranges

from premium to low cost are becoming increasingly important success

factors. Therefore, having a granular understanding of market dynamics

and price segments provides an important basis for identifying winning

strategies. This report focuses on the industrial truck industry as anexample to i llustrate McKinsey's approach.

by Michael Ball, Cornelius Baur, Maximi lian Dicenta, Mathias Gerlach, Jan Harre,

Christian Malorny, and Ulf Oesterlin

What does the future hold for the global industrial truck market? McKinsey &

Company launched an initiative to answer this and other questions regarding this27 billion Euro industry. Drawing upon quantitative econometric modeling and

numerous interviews with industry experts, dealers and customers, as well as

extensive secondary research, this initiative provides new clarity on the global

forklift market’s current size and structure, market growth and trends1, and

insights on price segments. The goal is to provide leaders with fresh insights

regarding this evolving industry.

 A key segment of the material handling industry, industrial trucks occupy the

middle ground between palletizing and logistics equipment, such as truck-

mounted forklift and heavy-duty loading equipment (e.g., container handlers and

cranes). Three main segments exist, with the first two – internal combustion (IC)

1  This market forecast cannot offer any guarantee of a specific future path as many uncertainties underliethe industry’s development. However, McKinsey’s research reveals indications of the trends described,

and we very much hope this report will be of assistance to decision-markers in this industry. In preparingthis market report, McKinsey has relied on the accuracy and completeness of the available information,and has not undertaken independent verification of the accuracy or completeness of such information.

McKinsey does not assume any responsibility towards any persons for the correctness of the informationcontained in this market report.

Page 2: McK a a Industrial Trucks

7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 2/16

 

 Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 

2/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. 

trucks and electric (E) trucks – having counter-balance features for handling

heavier loads. The third segment covers warehouse (WH) trucks, which tend to

be smaller, non-polluting electric-powered "pallet lifter" machines for indoors use.

Globally, the Top 5 industrial truck players by revenues are Toyota (Japan),

KION (Germany), Jungheinrich (Germany), Hyster-Yale (USA), and Crown

(USA), in descending order. By volume, however, the Chinese OEM Anhui Heli

makes its way into the Top 5. Developed market players clearly dominate the list,

although the emergence of Anhui Heli in fifth place reflects the dramatic growth of

China’s forklift truck market.

Global industrial truck market regains footingfollowing the economic cris is

The global industrial truck market is a EUR ~ 27 billion industry that includes

EUR ~ 16 billion in new industrial truck sales and EUR ~ 11 billion in aftersales

maintenance and spare parts.

The new industrial truck segment experienced strong 12 percent annual unit

growth from 2003 to 2007, reaching 951,000 vehicles. As a result of the 2008/09

recession, unit sales dropped by 42 percent to fewer than 550,000 units in  2009.

In 2011, the market (on a global level) finally regained the ground lost to the

recession, reaching sales of 975,000 units (Exhibit 1), largely driven by

replacement effects, especially in mature markets.

Western Europe and North America currently control 28 and 17 percent of the 

new truck market, respectively, in terms of units. China, following dramatic

growth, already accounts for 24 percent. Over the past decade, Western Europe

and North America have lost ground to emerging markets, especially to China,

falling from a combined market share of 66 percent in 2003 to 45 percent in

2011.

Page 3: McK a a Industrial Trucks

7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 3/16

 

 Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 

3/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. 

Exhibit 1: Global industrial truck market

New truck orders of 975 thousand units in 2011 have just exceeded

pre-financial crisis level

MARKET SIZE – NEW TRUCKS

975

547

951

749

604

+34%p.a.

+12%p.a.

20110907052003

-42%

 After-

sales1

Industrial

new trucks

2011

27

11

16

New truck business, 2003 - 11

Thousand units ordered

1 Incl. maintenance and spare parts, but excl. financing/leasing, rental and used trucks

SOURCE: Logistik Journal 2012 – "Weltmarkt Flurförderfahrzeuge"; annual reports; expert interviews; truck associations,McKinsey

Revenues 2011

EUR billions

ESTIMATE

 

By product type, IC trucks make up nearly half of the market and WH trucks 37

percent, while E-trucks contribute the rest. However, the distribution of forklifts by 

product type varies significantly across countries and regions (Exhibit 2). In

China, for instance, IC trucks make up more than three-quarters of the market in 

unit terms, E-trucks 10 percent, and WH trucks 12 percent. Western Europe, on 

the other hand, features 62 percent WH trucks, 19 percent E-trucks, and 19 

percent IC trucks. In general, emerging markets use more IC trucks and

developed regions source more WH trucks, while both use E-trucks to varying

degrees.

Greater demand for IC trucks in emerging markets results from lower indoor

emissions restrictions, different warehouse structures (e.g., with a higher share of

outdoor storage), and greater sales price sensitivity. Over the past decade, the

strong growth in China and other emerging economies has boosted the global

share of IC trucks from 42 percent in 2003 to 47 percent in 2011 at the expense

of E-trucks and WH trucks.

Page 4: McK a a Industrial Trucks

7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 4/16

 

 Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 

4/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. 

Exhibit 2: Regional product mix dif ferences

IC trucks outweigh in emerging markets, WH trucks are more relevant in

mature markets, esp. in Western Europe and North America

Truck type Volume

WH trucks 363

E-trucks 157

77

25

21

67 238

12

10

78

54

54

46

17

37

30

26

44

276

62

19

19

170

3341

19

40

93

4

63

455IC trucks

Region Restworld

North America1

Rest Asia

ChinaEasternEurope3

JapanWesternEurope2

Volume

Split of truck t ypes by region

Percent by units

Industrial t ruck orders, 2011, volume in thousand units

MARKET SIZE – NEW TRUCKS

SOURCE: Truck associations; annual reports; McKinsey

1 USA, Canada 2 Incl. Turkey 3 Incl. Russia

 

While Western Europe and North America account for 45 percent of the market

by volume, they still continue to capture more than half of the revenue pool due

to the more sophisticated and higher-priced products they offer.

Complementing their new industrial truck business, OEMs offer various additional

services, especially maintenance and spare parts (but also financing/leasing and

used trucks). On a global level, OEMs control around half of the lucrative

aftersales maintenance and spare parts segment of the forklift market, while

independent third-party players hold the remaining portion. As is the case in

many industrial equipment markets, the aftersales segment tends to be more

profitable than new forklift sales, generating operating profit margins that exceed

10 percent.

Page 5: McK a a Industrial Trucks

7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 5/16

 

 Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 

5/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. 

 A moderate shor t-term expansion should

precede a return to higher growth through 2017

Due to the lack of reliable third-party analysis regarding future growth in the

global industrial truck market, McKinsey developed a proprietary econometric

model-based forecast for each region for the period 2012-17. Firstly, McKinsey

identified and analyzed the growth fundamentals of the industry – economic

development (especially real GDP growth, gross output, and investment levels),

growth of international trade, and increasing fragmentation of the value chain.

Next, the team tested the historical correlation of various economic drivers with

truck sales in each region. Based upon the correlation for the best regional

economic indicator (e.g., gross industrial output in North America and Japan,

manufacturing investments in China) and using the latest Q4/2012 forecast for

that indicator from IHS Global Insight, McKinsey forecasts industrial truck

demand per region. Despite the generally high correlations, the results were

verified with expectations and market trends obtained from various expert

interviews. Finally, the team estimated potential development of the product type

mix in each region, considering long-term trends, cyclicality effects (e.g.,

increasing share of WH trucks during a downturn), and relevant market trends.

In terms of overall economic development, IHS Global Insight expects global realGDP to expand by 3.1 percent annually from 2011 through 2017. Regional

differences in forklift truck demand will result from the divergent economic

outlooks expected for different parts of the world (Exhibit 3). While emerging

markets will still see higher economic growth than will mature markets, the

dynamics are highly regional-specific. China, for example, is expected to see real

GDP growth of 7.8 percent annually from 2012 to 2017, which is nonetheless a

significant reduction from historical trends. Western Europe's ongoing eurozone

crisis will cause the region's growth prospects to fall from historically 1.4 to 1.2

percent per annum for the next five years. And for Japan, IHS Global Insightexpects a recovery in the country's economic development through 2017, with

2.0 percent annual GDP growth (versus 0.5 percent from 2003 to 2011).

Page 6: McK a a Industrial Trucks

7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 6/16

 

 Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 

6/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. 

Exhibit 3: Economic development by region  

Economic outlook varies by region – higher growth in emerging markets

but with decreasing dynamic, stronger growth outlook in NA and Japan

SOURCE: IHS Global Insight (Q4/2012); McKinsey

2011 - 17E

x0.83.5

2003 - 11

4.3

North America1 Western Europe2

China

Japan

Rest AsiaEastern Europe3

Real GDP growth, CAGR in percent p.a.

MARKET GROWTH AND TRENDS

7.8

2011 - 17E2003 - 11

10.8

x0.7

2011 - 17E

4.8 x0.955.1

2003 - 11

2.6 x1.71.5 1.2 x0.91.4 2.0 x3.6

0.5

1 USA, Canada 2 Incl. Turkey 3 Incl. Russia

 

Based upon the econometric model and its region-specific economic drivers,

McKinsey estimates the global market for new industrial trucks to grow at 4

percent annually from 2012 to 2017, a somewhat slower rate compared to its

historical pace (Exhibit 4). Orders will expand from 975,000 units in 2011 to just

over 1.2 million in 2017. Despite its good long-term growth prospects, the

industrial truck market is likely to see overall stagnation in 2012 due to slight

market corrections in Europe and China, and moderate growth in 2013.

Thereafter, the market is expected to adhere to a longer-term growth path.

Page 7: McK a a Industrial Trucks

7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 7/16

 

 Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 

7/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. 

Exhibit 4: Industr ial truck forecast 2012-17

Global market size for new industrial trucks is expected to increase

by 4% p.a. to ~ 1,230 thousand units by 2017

998969975

794

547

874951

855

749704

604

+6%p.a.

+4%p.a.

2017E

1,233

16E

1,174

15E

1,113

14E

1,048

13E12E11100908070605042003

Industrial truck orders, thousand units

MARKET GROWTH – FORECAST

SOURCE: Truck associations; annual reports; expert interviews; McKinsey  

However, industrial truck order growth will not only vary by time but also by

region (Exhibit 5). Strong growth is expected through 2017 in Eastern Europe

(6.9 percent per annum), the rest of Asia (5.2 percent), Japan (5.0 percent) and

China (4.6 percent). Benefiting from the strong growth through 2017, emerging

markets are expected to significantly exceed their pre-crisis levels of 2007.

Mature markets, on the other hand, will see pre-crisis levels again (North

 America and Japan) or remain only slightly below (Western Europe). Unlike with

Europe or China, McKinsey expects the other regions to experience a positive

growth trend throughout the forecast period. China's strong outlook shouldposition it to rival Western Europe in terms of industrial truck orders by 2017.

Comparing growth of real GDP with industrial truck orders reveals that there is a

multiple on GDP growth of 1.5 to 2.5 in mature markets and 0.6 to 2.0 in

emerging markets. The multiple of 0.6 for China is driven by the fact that it will

likely see a slight correction of industrial truck demand in 2012 while the real

GDP still grows at moderate 7.4 percent. 

Page 8: McK a a Industrial Trucks

7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 8/16

 

 Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 

8/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. 

Exhibit 5: Industrial truck forecast 2012-17 by region

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1513201109

Rest world

Rest Asia

Japan

North

 America2

EasternEurope3

201707052003 Years

Strong grow th expected in emerging markets with China, rest of Asia,

Eastern Europe, and rest of world exceeding pre-crisis levels in 2017Industrial truck orders, thousand units

Forecast

Total

 Actual

6.2

23.0

1.8

1.1

11.2

-0.9

12.4

11.4

4.0

4.6

2.3

3.9

5.2

5.0

6.9

4.0

MARKET GROWTH – FORECAST

China

Western

Europe1

2003 - 11 2011 - 17ETrucks

SOURCE: Truck associations; annual reports; expert interviews; McKinsey

1 Incl. Turkey 2 USA, Canada 3 Incl. Russia

1,233

313

316

213

104

89

81

117

CAGR, percent p.a.Volume

2017

 

By forklift type, IC truck orders will grow the fastest during the forecast period,

expanding by 4.7 percent annually due to the increasing importance of emerging

markets. During the five-year period, it is not anticipated that any radical shift will

occur in the regional product mix. China, for example, will continue to be

dominated by IC trucks and Western Europe by WH trucks.

Overall, China is expected to show the largest absolute growth with 74,000 trucks

from 2011 to 2017, followed closely by North America with 43,000, and Western

Europe with 40,000 trucks (Exhibit 6). China is also expected to experience the

strongest absolute growth in IC trucks, with a cumulative 55,000 new truck orders

between 2011 and 2017. Western Europe will lead the global market growth in

WH trucks with 19,000 orders and North America follows with 22,000 IC trucks

and 18,000 WH trucks.

Page 9: McK a a Industrial Trucks

7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 9/16

 

 Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 

9/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. 

Exhibit 6: Industr ial truck forecast 2012-17 by region and product type

 Absolu te growth fueled by China, North America and Western Europe,

IC trucks by emerging markets and WH trucks by mature marketsRegion/product type combi-

nations with highest growth

MARKET GROWTH – FORECAST

Industrial truck orders

Growth rate, 2011 - 17E

CAGR p.a., percent

IC E WH

By truck type

5 4 3

 Absolute growth, 2011 - 17E

Thousand units1

IC E WH

By truck type

146 37 76Total 259 4

By

region

North

 America2

Western

Europe3

Japan

Rest Asia

Rest

world

China

Eastern

Europe4

5 2 4

4 3 2

6 5 4

4 4 4

5 5 5

4 5 6

10 6 4

22

13

3

9

18

19

11 7 5

15 1

15 5 7

8

55 7 12

16 4 7

43

40

23

27

25

74

27

4

2

5

5

4

5

7

Total Total

Growth rate, 2011 - 17E

CAGR p.a., percent

IC E WH

By truck type

5 4 3

 Absolute growth, 2011 - 17E

Thousand units1

IC E WH

By truck type

146 37 76Total 259 4

By

region

North

 America2

Western

Europe3

Japan

Rest Asia

Rest

world

China

Eastern

Europe4

5 2 4

4 3 2

6 5 4

4 4 4

5 5 5

4 5 6

10 6 4

22

13

3

9

18

19

11 7 5

15 1

15 5 7

8

55 7 12

16 4 7

43

40

23

27

25

74

27

4

2

5

5

4

5

7

Total Total

1 Differences due to rounding may apply 2 USA, Canada 3 Incl. Turkey 4 Incl. Russia

SOURCE: Truck associations; annual reports; expert interviews; McKinsey  

Market insights regarding pr ice segments 

 A price comparison for a standard 2.5t IC truck across different regions reveals

that North America and Western Europe support the highest price levels. They

also share very similar price levels across the three global product segments:

premium segment (EUR 27-30,000 for standard 2.5t IC truck in Western Europe),

value segment (EUR 20-27,000) and low cost segment (EUR ~15,000).

McKinsey's research further revealed large price differences between the low

cost and premium segments in many regions, and also that pricing in China

remains significantly lower than that seen in mature markets.

Globally, the value segment makes up roughly half of the total market in unit

terms, while the premium and low cost segments are split among the other half.

Regional market differences, as might be expected, are significant. In Western

and Eastern Europe, for example, the premium segment accounts for nearly 55-

60 percent of the region's total unit volume. By way of comparison, the premium

segment is responsible for just 20-25 percent in North America and 5-10 percent

in China and other regions (Exhibit 7).

Page 10: McK a a Industrial Trucks

7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 10/16

 

 Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 

10/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. 

Exhibit 7: Industrial truck market by price segments

North America and Asia (excl. China) are biggest driver of value

segment, Europe of premium segment, and China of low cost segment

Price

segment Volume1

Low cost248

(25%)

Value469

(48%)

10-15

~80

5-10

~80

10-15

5-10

~5

35-40

55-60

5-10

~70

20-25258

(27%)Premium

SOURCE: Dealer and expert interviews (Oct 2012); McKinsey

Region North America2 Japan/Rest Asia/Rest world

ChinaWestern Europe/Eastern Europe3

Volume

Split of price segments by region

Percent by units

Industrial truck orders, 2011, volume in thousand units

1 Difference due to rounding may apply 2 USA, Canada 3 Incl. Turkey and Russia

170 237238330

ESTIMATEPRICE SEGMENTS

 

With the exception of China, the value segment plays a substantial role in most

regions. In terms of unit volume, value-segment products make up nearly ~70

percent of sales in North America, 35-40 percent in Western and Eastern Europe,

and ~80 percent in the rest of the world, excluding China.

China's core market focuses on the low cost segment, which captures about ~80

percent of the country's total unit sales. The low cost segment is gaining strength

beyond China and currently makes up about 5-10 percent of the market in North

 America, ~5 percent in greater Europe, and 10-15 percent in other regions. Whilethe global low cost segment generates approximately 25 percent of unit volume

today, it earns only about 15 percent of the global revenue pool.

In order to optimally address these different price segments, companies need to

thoroughly understand the specific requirements from both the customer and

business model perspectives (Exhibit 8). Premium truck customers, for example,

demand full heavy-duty application with life cycles exceeding 10 years and

advanced technology/product features (e.g., customization) as well as additional

services and solution offerings. Low cost customers, on the other hand, require a

Page 11: McK a a Industrial Trucks

7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 11/16

 

 Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 

11/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. 

basic and functional-oriented product for medium duty application (typically with a

significantly shorter life cycle of five to seven years) and less additional services

or even solution packages.

Exhibit 8: Key characterist ics of pr ice segments

Companies need to consider different requirements to address

each segment op timally – example Western Europe (2.5 t IC truck)

258469

248

SOURCE: Company websites; dealer and expert interviews (Oct 2012); McKinsey

1 Transaction price for standard 2.5 t IC truck before VAT and after discount

Key features

End userprice1

27 - 30 Thd. EUR 20 - 27 Thd. EUR ~15 Thd. EUR

▪ Life time   ▪   ≥ 10 years   ▪ 7 - 10 years   ▪ 5 - 7 years

▪ Performance   ▪ Fully heavy duty   ▪ Heavy duty   ▪ Medium (2 - 4hours/day)

▪ Technologyand features

▪  Advanced ergonomics,controls, sensors, andcustomization options

▪ Functionality for full-dayapplication (e.g.,ergonomics, securitysensors)

▪ Functional designcovering basicrequirements

Key services   ▪ Full service contracts,solution offerings (e.g.,financing, rental, fleetmgmt.), 24-hour support

▪ Full service   ▪ Some servicethrough dealers

Orders 2011,

worldwide

Thousand units

Premium Value Low cost

ESTIMATE

PRICE SEGMENTS

 

Mature and emerging market players facedifferent challenges and opportunities

The next five years will be crucial for forklift truck industry players focused on

positioning themselves to benefit from the global market's anticipated

development. McKinsey suggests that mature and emerging market players face

separate challenges and could benefit from different opportunities. 

Mature market players 

  Prepare for limited growth in 2012/13, indust ry cyc licality , and volatility

of economic environment. Companies should define a set of measures to

pursue in the short term to lower financial impact from market correction in

Europe and China. In addition, it is essential to increase operation system’s

Page 12: McK a a Industrial Trucks

7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 12/16

 

 Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 

12/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. 

agility (labor, assets, footprint, supplier base), enhance flexibility of high fixed

costs, and diversify the revenue base (e.g., service share, regional growth).

  Lift overall profitability level. Industrial truck OEMs should optimize their

revenue mix to include more of the profitably aftersales/solutions business

(e.g., financing, rental, and logistics solutions). They should also revisit their

cost structure via, for example, rigorous product target costing or

globalization of production footprint.

  Build competitive advantage based upon true market and customer

insights. Industrial truck makers need to develop superior market and

customer insights to further drive their distinctive value proposition andoptimally target local customer needs. That means deep understanding

customer requirements and buying factors, OEM strengths and weaknesses

along buying factors, TCO, price-volume curves, and market segmentation

by price, application type, key product dimensions, and customer needs.

  Secure growth and business model in emerging markets. Leaders

should develop a clear growth strategy for emerging markets based upon

market/customer insights covering brand strategy (especially premium versus

value brand for emerging markets), product strategy, value proposition (e.g.,

TCO taking into account cost and price levels in emerging markets),

production and sourcing footprint, sales strategy, and cooperation models

(e.g., via JVs or M&A).

  Define strategy for the large (and potentially growing) value segment. 

Mature market players need to define product strategy and business model

to address the growing value segment, including product and technology

concept, go-to-market model and organization/governance, global platform,

and module strategy.

  Develop a powertrain strategy to address emissions regulations. OEMs

will have to define their R&D and technology roadmap going forward in order

to comply with tightening emissions regulations (e.g., via own development,

cooperation, or external provider).

Page 13: McK a a Industrial Trucks

7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 13/16

 

 Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 

13/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. 

Emerging market players 

  Build competitive advantage based upon true market and customer

insights. Industrial truck makers need to develop deep market and customer

insights to address diversified and professional customer needs and develop

a strategy for the value segment in order to migrate from a low cost to a

value offering. This could include, for example, technological requirements,

customer needs and buying factors (e.g., TCO), OEM strengths and

weaknesses along buying factors, price-volume curves, and market

segmentation by price, application type, key product dimensions and

customer needs.

  Develop a presence in attractive mature markets. While operating in their

home markets, emerging-market leaders should also strive to develop a clear

market entry strategy for mature markets based upon market and customer

insights. These can include brand strategy (especially low cost versus value

segment in mature markets), product strategy, production footprint, sales and

dealer network strategy, and cooperation models.

  Define the right product and service offerings . Companies need to define

a package of product and service offerings around emerging customer needs

in mature and emerging markets (e.g., large fleet customers requiring

services/solutions, smaller companies focusing on product/technology)

  Develop a defense strategy against mature-market players. Emerging-

market OEMs need to define measures to protect their home market against

market entry and growth strategy of mature-market players by building a

product offering via, for example, JVs or M&A for (upper) value segments to

create competition and raise entry barriers.

  Prepare for the increasing cycl icality challenge. Companies need to

manage increasing cyclicality in emerging markets and high volatility in

mature markets by improving operation system agility (labor, assets,

footprint, supplier base), enhancing flexibility of high fixed costs, and

diversifying the revenue base (e.g., service share).

Page 14: McK a a Industrial Trucks

7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 14/16

 

 Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 

14/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. 

  Develop a powertrain strategy to address emissions regulations . It is

essential to define the powertrain strategy (especially R&D and technologyroadmap) going forward in order to comply with tightening emissions

regulations in home markets and significantly higher restrictions in mature

markets.

■ ■ ■ 

The global industrial truck market has remained fairly hard to read for many

outsiders due to the lack of reliable third-party metrics regarding industry size,

growth, and future prospects. By adapting its standardized model and approach

proven by McKinsey & Company in a variety of other industries, McKinsey hopes

to provide new insights regarding the evolving industrial truck industry.

For those interested in obtaining a copy of the entire market study, please directly

contact Jan Harre ([email protected]). ■ 

Copyright © 2012 McKinsey & Company, Inc.

 All rights reserved.

Page 15: McK a a Industrial Trucks

7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 15/16

 

 Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 

15/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. 

METHODOLOGY - INDUSTRIAL TRUCK FORECAST 2012-17E

Due to the lack of reliable third-party analysis regarding future growth in the

global industrial truck market, McKinsey developed a proprietary econometric

model-based forecast for each region for the period 2012-17. Following are the

elements of the initiative.

1. Identify the key drivers of global demand for indust rial trucks . 

McKinsey's research revealed that three structural factors are key when it

comes to driving global forklift truck demand: economic development (real

GDP growth, gross output and investment levels), the growth of international

trade (imports/exports and container shipping volumes), and value chainfragmentation/division of work, which is causing an increase in material

handling requirements.

2.  Analyze the economic out look and growth prospects by region. Using

regression analysis, McKinsey analyzed the historical correlation between

regional economic and industrial truck growth, and developed forecasts for

the period 2012-17 based upon the best driver for each region. Historical

regression analyses were conducted for different drivers, such as real GDP,

gross output, and investment activities for different sectors such as industrial,

manufacturing, and transportation. Reflecting the correlation of the key

economic indicator and regional industrial truck demand, the McKinsey team

developed the truck market growth outlook based upon forecasts of the

chosen economic indicator from the respected institute IHS Global Insight.

Given the nature of this approach, the forecasts for the industrial truck market

can only be as good as the quality of the forecasts of the underlying drivers.

In addition, the team verified the regional forecasts based upon expert

interviews and opinions, and compared them to pre-crisis demand levels.

3. Identify market trends and their impact on industrial truck product mixby region. The team analyzed the underlying historical long-term trends (up

to 2008) affecting the industrial truck product mix (e.g., the substitution of E-

trucks for IC trucks in Japan). In addition, the team reflected the cyclicality

effect that the financial crisis 2008-09 had on the product mix (e.g., the shift

to WH trucks due to less-cyclical industries, such as retail). Finally, McKinsey

assessed the market dynamics and trends, such as the evolution of customer

needs, regulatory changes, and technology shifts that might affect the

industrial truck market.

Page 16: McK a a Industrial Trucks

7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 16/16

 

 Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET 

16/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc. 

IMPORTANT NOTICE

In preparing this market report, McKinsey has relied on the accuracy and

completeness of the available information, and has not undertaken independent

verification of the accuracy or completeness of such information.

Neither this market study nor any part of its content is intended or suited to

constitute the basis of any investment decision (including, without limitation, to

purchase any securities of any listed company or in connection with the listing of

any company) regarding any company operating in the market covered by this

market study or any similar markets.

This market study contains certain forward-looking statements. By their nature,

forward-looking statements involve uncertainties because they relate to events

that may or may not occur in the future. This particularly applies to statements in

this report containing information on future developments, earnings capacity,

plans and expectations regarding the business, growth and profitability of

companies operating in the market covered by the industrial truck market or any

similar markets, and general economic and regulatory conditions and other

factors that affect such companies. Forward-looking statements in this market

study are based on current estimates and assumptions that are made to

McKinsey’s best knowledge. These forward-looking statements are subject to

risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual situations and

developments to differ materially from and be worse than those McKinsey has

expressed or implicitly assumed or described in these forward-looking

statements. The market covered by this report is also subject to a number of risks

and uncertainties that could cause a forward-looking statement, estimate, or

prediction in this market study to become inaccurate. In light of these risks,

uncertainties, and assumptions, future events described in this market study may

not occur, and forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from third-party

studies that have been referred to in this market study may prove to be

inaccurate. In addition, McKinsey does not assume any obligation to update any

forward-looking statements or to conform these forward-looking statements to

actual events or developments.

McKinsey does not assume any responsibility towards any persons for the

correctness of the information contained in this market report.