McK a a Industrial Trucks
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Uplift: Profiling the industrial truck
market
The machinery industry has been a highly globalized business for a long
time now. However, looking at the varying maturity levels of regional
markets, customized market strategies and a product offering that ranges
from premium to low cost are becoming increasingly important success
factors. Therefore, having a granular understanding of market dynamics
and price segments provides an important basis for identifying winning
strategies. This report focuses on the industrial truck industry as anexample to i llustrate McKinsey's approach.
by Michael Ball, Cornelius Baur, Maximi lian Dicenta, Mathias Gerlach, Jan Harre,
Christian Malorny, and Ulf Oesterlin
What does the future hold for the global industrial truck market? McKinsey &
Company launched an initiative to answer this and other questions regarding this27 billion Euro industry. Drawing upon quantitative econometric modeling and
numerous interviews with industry experts, dealers and customers, as well as
extensive secondary research, this initiative provides new clarity on the global
forklift market’s current size and structure, market growth and trends1, and
insights on price segments. The goal is to provide leaders with fresh insights
regarding this evolving industry.
A key segment of the material handling industry, industrial trucks occupy the
middle ground between palletizing and logistics equipment, such as truck-
mounted forklift and heavy-duty loading equipment (e.g., container handlers and
cranes). Three main segments exist, with the first two – internal combustion (IC)
1 This market forecast cannot offer any guarantee of a specific future path as many uncertainties underliethe industry’s development. However, McKinsey’s research reveals indications of the trends described,
and we very much hope this report will be of assistance to decision-markers in this industry. In preparingthis market report, McKinsey has relied on the accuracy and completeness of the available information,and has not undertaken independent verification of the accuracy or completeness of such information.
McKinsey does not assume any responsibility towards any persons for the correctness of the informationcontained in this market report.
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trucks and electric (E) trucks – having counter-balance features for handling
heavier loads. The third segment covers warehouse (WH) trucks, which tend to
be smaller, non-polluting electric-powered "pallet lifter" machines for indoors use.
Globally, the Top 5 industrial truck players by revenues are Toyota (Japan),
KION (Germany), Jungheinrich (Germany), Hyster-Yale (USA), and Crown
(USA), in descending order. By volume, however, the Chinese OEM Anhui Heli
makes its way into the Top 5. Developed market players clearly dominate the list,
although the emergence of Anhui Heli in fifth place reflects the dramatic growth of
China’s forklift truck market.
Global industrial truck market regains footingfollowing the economic cris is
The global industrial truck market is a EUR ~ 27 billion industry that includes
EUR ~ 16 billion in new industrial truck sales and EUR ~ 11 billion in aftersales
maintenance and spare parts.
The new industrial truck segment experienced strong 12 percent annual unit
growth from 2003 to 2007, reaching 951,000 vehicles. As a result of the 2008/09
recession, unit sales dropped by 42 percent to fewer than 550,000 units in 2009.
In 2011, the market (on a global level) finally regained the ground lost to the
recession, reaching sales of 975,000 units (Exhibit 1), largely driven by
replacement effects, especially in mature markets.
Western Europe and North America currently control 28 and 17 percent of the
new truck market, respectively, in terms of units. China, following dramatic
growth, already accounts for 24 percent. Over the past decade, Western Europe
and North America have lost ground to emerging markets, especially to China,
falling from a combined market share of 66 percent in 2003 to 45 percent in
2011.
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Exhibit 1: Global industrial truck market
New truck orders of 975 thousand units in 2011 have just exceeded
pre-financial crisis level
MARKET SIZE – NEW TRUCKS
975
547
951
749
604
+34%p.a.
+12%p.a.
20110907052003
-42%
After-
sales1
Industrial
new trucks
2011
27
11
16
New truck business, 2003 - 11
Thousand units ordered
1 Incl. maintenance and spare parts, but excl. financing/leasing, rental and used trucks
SOURCE: Logistik Journal 2012 – "Weltmarkt Flurförderfahrzeuge"; annual reports; expert interviews; truck associations,McKinsey
Revenues 2011
EUR billions
ESTIMATE
By product type, IC trucks make up nearly half of the market and WH trucks 37
percent, while E-trucks contribute the rest. However, the distribution of forklifts by
product type varies significantly across countries and regions (Exhibit 2). In
China, for instance, IC trucks make up more than three-quarters of the market in
unit terms, E-trucks 10 percent, and WH trucks 12 percent. Western Europe, on
the other hand, features 62 percent WH trucks, 19 percent E-trucks, and 19
percent IC trucks. In general, emerging markets use more IC trucks and
developed regions source more WH trucks, while both use E-trucks to varying
degrees.
Greater demand for IC trucks in emerging markets results from lower indoor
emissions restrictions, different warehouse structures (e.g., with a higher share of
outdoor storage), and greater sales price sensitivity. Over the past decade, the
strong growth in China and other emerging economies has boosted the global
share of IC trucks from 42 percent in 2003 to 47 percent in 2011 at the expense
of E-trucks and WH trucks.
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Exhibit 2: Regional product mix dif ferences
IC trucks outweigh in emerging markets, WH trucks are more relevant in
mature markets, esp. in Western Europe and North America
Truck type Volume
WH trucks 363
E-trucks 157
77
25
21
67 238
12
10
78
54
54
46
17
37
30
26
44
276
62
19
19
170
3341
19
40
93
4
63
455IC trucks
Region Restworld
North America1
Rest Asia
ChinaEasternEurope3
JapanWesternEurope2
Volume
Split of truck t ypes by region
Percent by units
Industrial t ruck orders, 2011, volume in thousand units
MARKET SIZE – NEW TRUCKS
SOURCE: Truck associations; annual reports; McKinsey
1 USA, Canada 2 Incl. Turkey 3 Incl. Russia
While Western Europe and North America account for 45 percent of the market
by volume, they still continue to capture more than half of the revenue pool due
to the more sophisticated and higher-priced products they offer.
Complementing their new industrial truck business, OEMs offer various additional
services, especially maintenance and spare parts (but also financing/leasing and
used trucks). On a global level, OEMs control around half of the lucrative
aftersales maintenance and spare parts segment of the forklift market, while
independent third-party players hold the remaining portion. As is the case in
many industrial equipment markets, the aftersales segment tends to be more
profitable than new forklift sales, generating operating profit margins that exceed
10 percent.
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A moderate shor t-term expansion should
precede a return to higher growth through 2017
Due to the lack of reliable third-party analysis regarding future growth in the
global industrial truck market, McKinsey developed a proprietary econometric
model-based forecast for each region for the period 2012-17. Firstly, McKinsey
identified and analyzed the growth fundamentals of the industry – economic
development (especially real GDP growth, gross output, and investment levels),
growth of international trade, and increasing fragmentation of the value chain.
Next, the team tested the historical correlation of various economic drivers with
truck sales in each region. Based upon the correlation for the best regional
economic indicator (e.g., gross industrial output in North America and Japan,
manufacturing investments in China) and using the latest Q4/2012 forecast for
that indicator from IHS Global Insight, McKinsey forecasts industrial truck
demand per region. Despite the generally high correlations, the results were
verified with expectations and market trends obtained from various expert
interviews. Finally, the team estimated potential development of the product type
mix in each region, considering long-term trends, cyclicality effects (e.g.,
increasing share of WH trucks during a downturn), and relevant market trends.
In terms of overall economic development, IHS Global Insight expects global realGDP to expand by 3.1 percent annually from 2011 through 2017. Regional
differences in forklift truck demand will result from the divergent economic
outlooks expected for different parts of the world (Exhibit 3). While emerging
markets will still see higher economic growth than will mature markets, the
dynamics are highly regional-specific. China, for example, is expected to see real
GDP growth of 7.8 percent annually from 2012 to 2017, which is nonetheless a
significant reduction from historical trends. Western Europe's ongoing eurozone
crisis will cause the region's growth prospects to fall from historically 1.4 to 1.2
percent per annum for the next five years. And for Japan, IHS Global Insightexpects a recovery in the country's economic development through 2017, with
2.0 percent annual GDP growth (versus 0.5 percent from 2003 to 2011).
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Exhibit 3: Economic development by region
Economic outlook varies by region – higher growth in emerging markets
but with decreasing dynamic, stronger growth outlook in NA and Japan
SOURCE: IHS Global Insight (Q4/2012); McKinsey
2011 - 17E
x0.83.5
2003 - 11
4.3
North America1 Western Europe2
China
Japan
Rest AsiaEastern Europe3
Real GDP growth, CAGR in percent p.a.
MARKET GROWTH AND TRENDS
7.8
2011 - 17E2003 - 11
10.8
x0.7
2011 - 17E
4.8 x0.955.1
2003 - 11
2.6 x1.71.5 1.2 x0.91.4 2.0 x3.6
0.5
1 USA, Canada 2 Incl. Turkey 3 Incl. Russia
Based upon the econometric model and its region-specific economic drivers,
McKinsey estimates the global market for new industrial trucks to grow at 4
percent annually from 2012 to 2017, a somewhat slower rate compared to its
historical pace (Exhibit 4). Orders will expand from 975,000 units in 2011 to just
over 1.2 million in 2017. Despite its good long-term growth prospects, the
industrial truck market is likely to see overall stagnation in 2012 due to slight
market corrections in Europe and China, and moderate growth in 2013.
Thereafter, the market is expected to adhere to a longer-term growth path.
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Exhibit 4: Industr ial truck forecast 2012-17
Global market size for new industrial trucks is expected to increase
by 4% p.a. to ~ 1,230 thousand units by 2017
998969975
794
547
874951
855
749704
604
+6%p.a.
+4%p.a.
2017E
1,233
16E
1,174
15E
1,113
14E
1,048
13E12E11100908070605042003
Industrial truck orders, thousand units
MARKET GROWTH – FORECAST
SOURCE: Truck associations; annual reports; expert interviews; McKinsey
However, industrial truck order growth will not only vary by time but also by
region (Exhibit 5). Strong growth is expected through 2017 in Eastern Europe
(6.9 percent per annum), the rest of Asia (5.2 percent), Japan (5.0 percent) and
China (4.6 percent). Benefiting from the strong growth through 2017, emerging
markets are expected to significantly exceed their pre-crisis levels of 2007.
Mature markets, on the other hand, will see pre-crisis levels again (North
America and Japan) or remain only slightly below (Western Europe). Unlike with
Europe or China, McKinsey expects the other regions to experience a positive
growth trend throughout the forecast period. China's strong outlook shouldposition it to rival Western Europe in terms of industrial truck orders by 2017.
Comparing growth of real GDP with industrial truck orders reveals that there is a
multiple on GDP growth of 1.5 to 2.5 in mature markets and 0.6 to 2.0 in
emerging markets. The multiple of 0.6 for China is driven by the fact that it will
likely see a slight correction of industrial truck demand in 2012 while the real
GDP still grows at moderate 7.4 percent.
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Exhibit 5: Industrial truck forecast 2012-17 by region
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1513201109
Rest world
Rest Asia
Japan
North
America2
EasternEurope3
201707052003 Years
Strong grow th expected in emerging markets with China, rest of Asia,
Eastern Europe, and rest of world exceeding pre-crisis levels in 2017Industrial truck orders, thousand units
Forecast
Total
Actual
6.2
23.0
1.8
1.1
11.2
-0.9
12.4
11.4
4.0
4.6
2.3
3.9
5.2
5.0
6.9
4.0
MARKET GROWTH – FORECAST
China
Western
Europe1
2003 - 11 2011 - 17ETrucks
SOURCE: Truck associations; annual reports; expert interviews; McKinsey
1 Incl. Turkey 2 USA, Canada 3 Incl. Russia
1,233
313
316
213
104
89
81
117
CAGR, percent p.a.Volume
2017
By forklift type, IC truck orders will grow the fastest during the forecast period,
expanding by 4.7 percent annually due to the increasing importance of emerging
markets. During the five-year period, it is not anticipated that any radical shift will
occur in the regional product mix. China, for example, will continue to be
dominated by IC trucks and Western Europe by WH trucks.
Overall, China is expected to show the largest absolute growth with 74,000 trucks
from 2011 to 2017, followed closely by North America with 43,000, and Western
Europe with 40,000 trucks (Exhibit 6). China is also expected to experience the
strongest absolute growth in IC trucks, with a cumulative 55,000 new truck orders
between 2011 and 2017. Western Europe will lead the global market growth in
WH trucks with 19,000 orders and North America follows with 22,000 IC trucks
and 18,000 WH trucks.
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Exhibit 6: Industr ial truck forecast 2012-17 by region and product type
Absolu te growth fueled by China, North America and Western Europe,
IC trucks by emerging markets and WH trucks by mature marketsRegion/product type combi-
nations with highest growth
MARKET GROWTH – FORECAST
Industrial truck orders
Growth rate, 2011 - 17E
CAGR p.a., percent
IC E WH
By truck type
5 4 3
Absolute growth, 2011 - 17E
Thousand units1
IC E WH
By truck type
146 37 76Total 259 4
By
region
North
America2
Western
Europe3
Japan
Rest Asia
Rest
world
China
Eastern
Europe4
5 2 4
4 3 2
6 5 4
4 4 4
5 5 5
4 5 6
10 6 4
22
13
3
9
18
19
11 7 5
15 1
15 5 7
8
55 7 12
16 4 7
43
40
23
27
25
74
27
4
2
5
5
4
5
7
Total Total
Growth rate, 2011 - 17E
CAGR p.a., percent
IC E WH
By truck type
5 4 3
Absolute growth, 2011 - 17E
Thousand units1
IC E WH
By truck type
146 37 76Total 259 4
By
region
North
America2
Western
Europe3
Japan
Rest Asia
Rest
world
China
Eastern
Europe4
5 2 4
4 3 2
6 5 4
4 4 4
5 5 5
4 5 6
10 6 4
22
13
3
9
18
19
11 7 5
15 1
15 5 7
8
55 7 12
16 4 7
43
40
23
27
25
74
27
4
2
5
5
4
5
7
Total Total
1 Differences due to rounding may apply 2 USA, Canada 3 Incl. Turkey 4 Incl. Russia
SOURCE: Truck associations; annual reports; expert interviews; McKinsey
Market insights regarding pr ice segments
A price comparison for a standard 2.5t IC truck across different regions reveals
that North America and Western Europe support the highest price levels. They
also share very similar price levels across the three global product segments:
premium segment (EUR 27-30,000 for standard 2.5t IC truck in Western Europe),
value segment (EUR 20-27,000) and low cost segment (EUR ~15,000).
McKinsey's research further revealed large price differences between the low
cost and premium segments in many regions, and also that pricing in China
remains significantly lower than that seen in mature markets.
Globally, the value segment makes up roughly half of the total market in unit
terms, while the premium and low cost segments are split among the other half.
Regional market differences, as might be expected, are significant. In Western
and Eastern Europe, for example, the premium segment accounts for nearly 55-
60 percent of the region's total unit volume. By way of comparison, the premium
segment is responsible for just 20-25 percent in North America and 5-10 percent
in China and other regions (Exhibit 7).
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Exhibit 7: Industrial truck market by price segments
North America and Asia (excl. China) are biggest driver of value
segment, Europe of premium segment, and China of low cost segment
Price
segment Volume1
Low cost248
(25%)
Value469
(48%)
10-15
~80
5-10
~80
10-15
5-10
~5
35-40
55-60
5-10
~70
20-25258
(27%)Premium
SOURCE: Dealer and expert interviews (Oct 2012); McKinsey
Region North America2 Japan/Rest Asia/Rest world
ChinaWestern Europe/Eastern Europe3
Volume
Split of price segments by region
Percent by units
Industrial truck orders, 2011, volume in thousand units
1 Difference due to rounding may apply 2 USA, Canada 3 Incl. Turkey and Russia
170 237238330
ESTIMATEPRICE SEGMENTS
With the exception of China, the value segment plays a substantial role in most
regions. In terms of unit volume, value-segment products make up nearly ~70
percent of sales in North America, 35-40 percent in Western and Eastern Europe,
and ~80 percent in the rest of the world, excluding China.
China's core market focuses on the low cost segment, which captures about ~80
percent of the country's total unit sales. The low cost segment is gaining strength
beyond China and currently makes up about 5-10 percent of the market in North
America, ~5 percent in greater Europe, and 10-15 percent in other regions. Whilethe global low cost segment generates approximately 25 percent of unit volume
today, it earns only about 15 percent of the global revenue pool.
In order to optimally address these different price segments, companies need to
thoroughly understand the specific requirements from both the customer and
business model perspectives (Exhibit 8). Premium truck customers, for example,
demand full heavy-duty application with life cycles exceeding 10 years and
advanced technology/product features (e.g., customization) as well as additional
services and solution offerings. Low cost customers, on the other hand, require a
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basic and functional-oriented product for medium duty application (typically with a
significantly shorter life cycle of five to seven years) and less additional services
or even solution packages.
Exhibit 8: Key characterist ics of pr ice segments
Companies need to consider different requirements to address
each segment op timally – example Western Europe (2.5 t IC truck)
258469
248
SOURCE: Company websites; dealer and expert interviews (Oct 2012); McKinsey
1 Transaction price for standard 2.5 t IC truck before VAT and after discount
Key features
End userprice1
27 - 30 Thd. EUR 20 - 27 Thd. EUR ~15 Thd. EUR
▪ Life time ▪ ≥ 10 years ▪ 7 - 10 years ▪ 5 - 7 years
▪ Performance ▪ Fully heavy duty ▪ Heavy duty ▪ Medium (2 - 4hours/day)
▪ Technologyand features
▪ Advanced ergonomics,controls, sensors, andcustomization options
▪ Functionality for full-dayapplication (e.g.,ergonomics, securitysensors)
▪ Functional designcovering basicrequirements
Key services ▪ Full service contracts,solution offerings (e.g.,financing, rental, fleetmgmt.), 24-hour support
▪ Full service ▪ Some servicethrough dealers
Orders 2011,
worldwide
Thousand units
Premium Value Low cost
ESTIMATE
PRICE SEGMENTS
Mature and emerging market players facedifferent challenges and opportunities
The next five years will be crucial for forklift truck industry players focused on
positioning themselves to benefit from the global market's anticipated
development. McKinsey suggests that mature and emerging market players face
separate challenges and could benefit from different opportunities.
Mature market players
Prepare for limited growth in 2012/13, indust ry cyc licality , and volatility
of economic environment. Companies should define a set of measures to
pursue in the short term to lower financial impact from market correction in
Europe and China. In addition, it is essential to increase operation system’s
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agility (labor, assets, footprint, supplier base), enhance flexibility of high fixed
costs, and diversify the revenue base (e.g., service share, regional growth).
Lift overall profitability level. Industrial truck OEMs should optimize their
revenue mix to include more of the profitably aftersales/solutions business
(e.g., financing, rental, and logistics solutions). They should also revisit their
cost structure via, for example, rigorous product target costing or
globalization of production footprint.
Build competitive advantage based upon true market and customer
insights. Industrial truck makers need to develop superior market and
customer insights to further drive their distinctive value proposition andoptimally target local customer needs. That means deep understanding
customer requirements and buying factors, OEM strengths and weaknesses
along buying factors, TCO, price-volume curves, and market segmentation
by price, application type, key product dimensions, and customer needs.
Secure growth and business model in emerging markets. Leaders
should develop a clear growth strategy for emerging markets based upon
market/customer insights covering brand strategy (especially premium versus
value brand for emerging markets), product strategy, value proposition (e.g.,
TCO taking into account cost and price levels in emerging markets),
production and sourcing footprint, sales strategy, and cooperation models
(e.g., via JVs or M&A).
Define strategy for the large (and potentially growing) value segment.
Mature market players need to define product strategy and business model
to address the growing value segment, including product and technology
concept, go-to-market model and organization/governance, global platform,
and module strategy.
Develop a powertrain strategy to address emissions regulations. OEMs
will have to define their R&D and technology roadmap going forward in order
to comply with tightening emissions regulations (e.g., via own development,
cooperation, or external provider).
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Emerging market players
Build competitive advantage based upon true market and customer
insights. Industrial truck makers need to develop deep market and customer
insights to address diversified and professional customer needs and develop
a strategy for the value segment in order to migrate from a low cost to a
value offering. This could include, for example, technological requirements,
customer needs and buying factors (e.g., TCO), OEM strengths and
weaknesses along buying factors, price-volume curves, and market
segmentation by price, application type, key product dimensions and
customer needs.
Develop a presence in attractive mature markets. While operating in their
home markets, emerging-market leaders should also strive to develop a clear
market entry strategy for mature markets based upon market and customer
insights. These can include brand strategy (especially low cost versus value
segment in mature markets), product strategy, production footprint, sales and
dealer network strategy, and cooperation models.
Define the right product and service offerings . Companies need to define
a package of product and service offerings around emerging customer needs
in mature and emerging markets (e.g., large fleet customers requiring
services/solutions, smaller companies focusing on product/technology)
Develop a defense strategy against mature-market players. Emerging-
market OEMs need to define measures to protect their home market against
market entry and growth strategy of mature-market players by building a
product offering via, for example, JVs or M&A for (upper) value segments to
create competition and raise entry barriers.
Prepare for the increasing cycl icality challenge. Companies need to
manage increasing cyclicality in emerging markets and high volatility in
mature markets by improving operation system agility (labor, assets,
footprint, supplier base), enhancing flexibility of high fixed costs, and
diversifying the revenue base (e.g., service share).
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Develop a powertrain strategy to address emissions regulations . It is
essential to define the powertrain strategy (especially R&D and technologyroadmap) going forward in order to comply with tightening emissions
regulations in home markets and significantly higher restrictions in mature
markets.
■ ■ ■
The global industrial truck market has remained fairly hard to read for many
outsiders due to the lack of reliable third-party metrics regarding industry size,
growth, and future prospects. By adapting its standardized model and approach
proven by McKinsey & Company in a variety of other industries, McKinsey hopes
to provide new insights regarding the evolving industrial truck industry.
For those interested in obtaining a copy of the entire market study, please directly
contact Jan Harre ([email protected]). ■
Copyright © 2012 McKinsey & Company, Inc.
All rights reserved.
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METHODOLOGY - INDUSTRIAL TRUCK FORECAST 2012-17E
Due to the lack of reliable third-party analysis regarding future growth in the
global industrial truck market, McKinsey developed a proprietary econometric
model-based forecast for each region for the period 2012-17. Following are the
elements of the initiative.
1. Identify the key drivers of global demand for indust rial trucks .
McKinsey's research revealed that three structural factors are key when it
comes to driving global forklift truck demand: economic development (real
GDP growth, gross output and investment levels), the growth of international
trade (imports/exports and container shipping volumes), and value chainfragmentation/division of work, which is causing an increase in material
handling requirements.
2. Analyze the economic out look and growth prospects by region. Using
regression analysis, McKinsey analyzed the historical correlation between
regional economic and industrial truck growth, and developed forecasts for
the period 2012-17 based upon the best driver for each region. Historical
regression analyses were conducted for different drivers, such as real GDP,
gross output, and investment activities for different sectors such as industrial,
manufacturing, and transportation. Reflecting the correlation of the key
economic indicator and regional industrial truck demand, the McKinsey team
developed the truck market growth outlook based upon forecasts of the
chosen economic indicator from the respected institute IHS Global Insight.
Given the nature of this approach, the forecasts for the industrial truck market
can only be as good as the quality of the forecasts of the underlying drivers.
In addition, the team verified the regional forecasts based upon expert
interviews and opinions, and compared them to pre-crisis demand levels.
3. Identify market trends and their impact on industrial truck product mixby region. The team analyzed the underlying historical long-term trends (up
to 2008) affecting the industrial truck product mix (e.g., the substitution of E-
trucks for IC trucks in Japan). In addition, the team reflected the cyclicality
effect that the financial crisis 2008-09 had on the product mix (e.g., the shift
to WH trucks due to less-cyclical industries, such as retail). Finally, McKinsey
assessed the market dynamics and trends, such as the evolution of customer
needs, regulatory changes, and technology shifts that might affect the
industrial truck market.
7/26/2019 McK a a Industrial Trucks
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mck-a-a-industrial-trucks 16/16
Automotive & Assembly EXTRANET
16/16 http://autoassembly.mckinsey.com McKinsey & Company, Inc.
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