McAfee 2013 Threats Predictions (Cyber War)

7/29/2019 McAfee 2013 Threats Predictions (Cyber War)

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Report

By McAee Labs

2013 Threats Predictions


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2013 Threats Predictions2

Table o Contents

Mobile Threats 4

Malware 5

Big-Scale Attacks 8

Citadel Trojan Zeros In 9

HTML5 10

Botnets and Spam 11

Crimeware 12

Hacktivism 14

About the Authors 15

About McAee Labs 15

About McAee 15


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3

McAee Labs collected an immense amount o data on malware, vulnerabilities, and

threats to endpoints, networks, email, and the web in 2012. Using our Global Threat

Intelligence, we analyzed this data to block these intrusions and reduce the danger

to our customers. (For more detail, read the McAfee Threats Report: Third Quarter

2012.)1 Next year we anticipate more o the same: Cybercriminals and hacktivists will

strengthen and evolve the techniques and tools they use to assault our privacy, bank

accounts, mobile devices, businesses, organizations, and homes.

McAee Labs researchers recently debated the leading threats or the coming year. We oresee an

increase in or the introduction o the ollowing threats in 2013:

Mobile worms on victims machines that buy malicious apps and steal via tap-and-pay NFC

Malware that blocks security updates to mobile phones

Mobile phone ransomware kits that allow criminals without programming skills to extort payments

Covert and persistent attacks deep within and beneath Windows

Rapid development o ways to attack Windows 8 and HTML5

Large-scale attacks like Stuxnet that attempt to destroy inrastructure, rather than make money

A urther narrowing o Zeus-like targeted attacks using the Citadel Trojan, making it very dicult or

security products to counter

Malware that renews a connection even ater a botnet has been taken down, allowing inections to

grow again

The snowshoe spamming o legitimate products rom many IP addresses, spreading out the sources

and keeping the unwelcome messages fowing

SMS spam rom inected phones. Whats your mother trying to sell you now?

Hacking as a Service: Anonymous sellers and buyers in underground orums exchange malware kits

and development services or money

The decline o online hacktivists Anonymous, to be replaced by more politically committed or

extremist groups Nation states and armies will be more requent sources and victims o cyberthreats



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4 2013 Threats Predictions

Mobile Threats

Malware shopping spree

Once criminals discover a prot-making technique that works, theyre likely to reuse and automate it.

For example, Android/Marketpay.A is a Trojan horse program that buys apps rom an app store without

user permission. Were likely to see crooks take this malwares app-buying payload and add it to amobile worm.

Buying apps developed by malware authors puts money in their pockets. A mobile worm that uses

exploits to propagate over numerous vulnerable phones is the perect platorm or malware that buys

such apps; attackers will no longer need victims to install a piece o malware. I user interaction isnt

needed, there will be nothing to prevent a mobile worm rom going on a shopping spree.

NFC worms

Phones with near-eld communications (NFC) enabled are becoming more common. As users are able

to make tap and pay purchases in more locations, theyll carry their digital wallets everywhere. That

fexibility will, unortunately, also be a boon to thieves. Attackers will create mobile worms with NFC

capabilities to propagate (via the bump and inect method) and to steal money.

Malware writers will thrive in areas with dense populations (airports, malls, theme parks, etc.). An NFC-enabled worm could run rampant through a large crowd, inecting victims and potentially stealing rom

their wallet accounts.

Block that update!

One o the advantages that a mobile service provider (as opposed to Microsot, or example) has in

ghting malware is that once the cell company recognizes malware it can automatically push an update

to customers to clean their devices. This works on phones that have not been rooted (or unlocked) by

their owners. For mobile malware to stick around or a long time, it will have to prevent updates. Putting

an app on a store that does nothing more than download external malware which locks the phone rom

communicating with the cell provider will achieve this.


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Malware

Kits lead to an explosion in malware or OS X and mobile

Given the popularity o mobile computing, we should perhaps be surprised that cybercriminals have

taken so long to extensively exploit this eld. In 2012, however, weve seen the number o mobile

threats go up dramatically. As we look at them in more detail, we see the large amount o Windows-based malware owes its existence to the easy availability o malware kits in the underground market. In

2013, there is a good chance ransomware kits will take the lead rom malware kits. We have already

seen Android and OS X as targets o ransomware. Now the rst ransomware kits are being marketed in

the underground. For the moment the kits attack only Windows systems, but this may change soon.

Ransomware continues to expand to mobile devices

Ransomware on Windows PCs has more than tripled during the past year. Attackers have proven that

this business model works and are scaling up their attacks to increase prots. One way ransomware is

dierent rom other types o malwaresuch as backdoors, keyloggers, and password stealersis that

attackers do not rely on their victims using the inected systems or nancial transactions to separate

them rom their money. Instead these criminals hijack the users ability to access data, communicate, or

use the system at all. The victims are aced with either losing their data or paying a ransom in the hope

o regaining access.

One limitation or many malware authors seeking prot rom mobile devices is that more users transact

business on desktop PCs rather than on tablets or phones. But this trend may not last; the convenience

o portable browsers will likely lead more people do their business on the go. Attackers have already

developed ransomware or mobile devices. What i the ransom demand included threats to distribute

recorded calls and pictures taken with the phone?

We anticipate considerably more activity in this area during 2013.


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2013 Threats Predictions6

New Ransomware Samples

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

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2012

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Q1

2012

Q4

2011

Q3

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2010

Unique Consumers Reporting Ransomware Detections (Cumulative)

AUG 1

2012

SEP 1

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Rootkits diversiy, using MBR and other bootkit techniques

The evolution o computer security sotware and other deenses on client endpoints is driving threats

into dierent areas o the operating system stack, especially or covert and persistent attackers. The

requency o threats attacking Microsot Windows below the kernel are increasing. Some o the critical

assets targeted include the BIOS, master boot record (MBR), volume boot record (VBR), GUID PartitionTable (GPT), and NTLoader. Although the volume o these threats is unlikely to approach that o simpler

attacks on Windows and applications, the impact o these complex attacks can be ar more devastating.

We expect to see more threats in this area during 2013.

Some notable below-the-kernel attacks, which have increased considerably in recent years.


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Windows 8 the next big target

Criminals go where the money is. And i this means they have to cope with a new, more secure version

o Windows, thats just what they will do. In many cases they attack the user and not the OS. Via

phishing and other techniques users are tricked into revealing inormation or installing a malicious

program. So i you upgrade, dont rely solely on Windows to protect your system: Remain vigilant andwatch out or phishing scams.

Windows 8 should provide improved security against malware and exploits compared with earlier

versions o Windows, at least or a while. Now that the underground market or attack and malware

kits is much more competitive than three years ago, it is likely that Windows 8specic malware will

be available quicker than Windows 7specic malware appeared. Systems running the new Unied

Extensible Firmware Interace are still vulnerable to MBR-based rootkits, just as previous OS versions

were, according to one research company. On the day o Windows 8s release, the rm announced

or sale to its customers the availability o a zero-day vulnerability that circumvents all new security

enhancements in Windows 8 and Internet Explorer 10.

In spite o any faws, Windows 8 is a more secure OS, so upgrading is worth considering. Millions

still run Windows XP, which only in all 2012 was nally eclipsed in the number o its users by newer

versions o Windows.

Big-Scale Attacks

Destructive payloads in malware have become rare because attackers preer to take control o their

victims computers or nancial gain or to steal intellectual property. Recently, however, we have seen

several attackssome apparently targeted, others implemented as wormsin which the only goal was

to cause as much damage as possible. We expect this malicious behavior to grow in 2013.

Whether this is hacktivism taken to a new level, as some claim, or just malicious intent is impossible

to say, but the worrying act is that companies appear to be rather vulnerable to such attacks. As

with distributed denial o service (DDoS) attacks, the technical bar or the hackers to hurdle is rather

low. I attackers can install destructive malware on a large number o machines, then the result can

be devastating.

How can we prepare or such an incident and, more important, how can we mitigate or prevent some o

the damage? It may be necessary to plan or the worst: An inside or outside attacker who has elevated

privileges on the network or a long time could time-bomb many systems on multiple sites. This eect

is likely worse than what is covered in many disaster recovery plans, so the IT sta may have to make

some updates. The priority is to keep the business running, which is best achieved by having production

networks, SCADA systems, etc. completely separated rom the normal network, preventing them rom

getting hit in the rst place. Then there will be a massive loss o data to deal with because users just

love to store their data on their local machines. One challenge will be to reinstall thousands o machines

while ensuring that the time bomb doesnt resurace. Technologies that may prove useul include remote

management eatures that are independent o the state o the PC and its OS, but these eatures will

need to be tested beore an incident happens.


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All measures to detect and block these persistent threats should also be eective against the preliminary

steps o such attacks, while the attacker tries to gain and elevate access. Remote application control

would prevent servers and key systems rom being aectedunless an attacker has already taken ull

control o the update process, which can be determined by careully monitoring who does what on the

management systems. To keep the loss o data to a minimum, a reliable network backup (and restore)

process needs to be in place, as well as backing up local data and blocking attackers rom shredding

data on shared drives and olders on the network.

Citadel Trojan Zeros In

Citadel is likely to become the Trojan o choice among cybercriminals who want the rich unctionality

o Zeus along with dedicated support. With the recent release o Citadel Rain, the Trojan can now

dynamically retrieve conguration les, enabling a raudster to send a targeted payload to a single victim

or a selection o victims. This allows thieves to compromise accounts on a one-o basis depending on

their criteria and wage attacks in a very targeted manner. Detection will become much harder because

the ootprint is minimal on the endpoint until the attack occurs. Typically Zeus attacks have been

relatively widespread. We will likely see that change in 2013 as more cybercriminals adopt Citadel Rain

and its uture variants and ocus on narrowly targeted attacks seeking the greatest possible gain.

Most Citadel inections are concentrated in just a ew populations in Europe, but we expect that number

to increase in 2013. The ollowing map shows Germany is the prime location, with more than 200

inections to date.

The Trojan Citadel is most prevalent in Western Europe, especially in Germany. We expect attacks rom this malware to

increase in 2013.


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HTML5

HTML5 is the next version o the standard language o Internet browsers. It provides language

improvements, capabilities to remove the need or plug-ins, new layout rendering options, and

new powerul APIs that support local data storage, device access, 2D/3D rendering, web-socket

communication, and many other eatures. Today 74 percent o users in North America, 72 percent inAsia, and 83 percent in Europe use browsers that support the majority o HTML5 eatures.2 Websites are

quickly adopting HTML5 or its richer user experience. HTML5 continues the move to the browser, and

away rom the operating systems, as the platorm to run applications. HTML5-based applications are

increasing in number, with major players taking advantage o reedom rom app stores and improved

cross-browser and cross-device compatibility.

Browsers have long been one o the primary vectors or security threats, and HTML5 wont change that.

With HTML5 the threats landscape will shit and broaden. We will see a reduction in exploits ocused on

plug-ins as browsers provide this unctionally via their new media capabilities and APIs. However, HTML5

will oer other opportunities or attackers because the additional unctionality will create a larger attack

surace. Powerul JavaScript APIs that allow device access will expose the browser as websites gain direct

access to hardware.

One example is WebGL, which provides 3D rendering. Prior to WebGL, HTML content not based onplug-ins was interpreted and rendered by the browser. This provided a layer o technology between

the untrusted data on the Internet and the operating system. WebGL browsers, however, expose

the graphics driver stack and hardware, signicantly increasing the attack vectors. Researchers have

already demonstrated graphics memory thetallowing the web application to steal screenshots rom

the desktopand denial o service attacks using all popular browsers supporting WebGL and popular

graphics driver stack providers.3

One o the primary separations between a native application and an HTML application has been the

ability o the ormer to perorm arbitrary network connections on the client. HTML5 increases the attack

surace or every user, as its eatures do not require extensive policy or access controls. Thus they allow

a page served rom the Internet to exploit WebSocket unctionality and poke around the users local

network. In the past, this opportunity or attackers was limited because any malicious use was thwarted

by the same-origin policy, which has been the cornerstone o security in HTML-based products. WithHTML5, however, Cross Origin Resource Sharing will let scripts rom one domain make network requests

post data, and access data served rom the target domain, thereby allowing HTML pages to perorm

reconnaissance and limited operations on the users network.

In 2013 we will see browsers expand on HTML5 eatures and improve HTML5 compatibility. HTML5-

based applications and websites will continue to grow. Were certain that attackers will turn their

attention to nding holes in HTML5 security in 2013. The question is how quickly theyll succeed.


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Botnets and Spam

Botnets call home

The biggest threat to botmasters is the unrecoverable loss o their botnets. International cooperation in

policing spam, malware, child exploitation, and illegal pills has made that loss a reality or many major

botnets over the past ew years, and will continue to threaten the prolieration o botnets. When thelargest botnets get taken down, then the next largest botnets become the new targets. Botmasters have

already reacted to this activity by subdividing botnets and increasing the costs associated with activities

that are easily detectable (such as DDoS and spam). It is only a matter o time beore botmasters

implement ail-saes to reestablish command o a botnet that has lost all o the control servers it usually

reports to.

In many cases botnets are temporarily hijacked by whitehat security researchers. Due to possible

negative side eects, however, these takeovers do not lead to new commands reaching the inected

hosts. There is a massive liability issue associated with the unauthorized remote operation o systems,

even with the best o intentions. Pushing new commands to an old Windows machine serving a hospital

could turn the PC into a brick and lead to incorrect care or even the death o a patient. Botmasters will

take advantage o this reluctance by the good guys to meddle by hardwiring their botnets to reestablish

control ater a takedown.

Snowshoe spam will continue to increase

When a shady marketing company approaches your marketing people and tells them that they have

a list o email addresses that have already opted into receiving whatever advertising you want to send

them, it should set o alarm bells. Unortunately those bells dont ring oten enough. Well-known

companies selling products rom cell phones to cigars to language-learning sotware to satellite TV to

medical supplies have all signed on with these shady advertisers. The shady companies blast out millions

and millions o blatantly illegal spam messages every day rom newly rented hosts in hosting companies

until they get evicted rom their subnets or move onater theyve turned those addresses, and

sometimes the subnets, into permanently blacklisted wastelands. (By sending rom many IPs, they spread

out the load, thus the snowshoe metaphor.) Recipients have their inboxes bombarded with these spam

messages and are unable to opt out o them.

Because this sort o activity is not as malicious as the most newsworthy hacks and malware, this areahas been mostly ignored by the authorities. Nonetheless, this practice o snowshoe spamming has

exploded during the past two years and is currently one o the biggest problems in the spam world.

Attempts by researchers to expose this sort o activity have resulted in threats o deamation lawsuits by

the companies using these shady marketers. In that environment (combined with an economy in which

marketing budgets are thin or nonexistent), this sort o activity will only continue to increase at the

breakneck pace that weve seen.


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SMS spam rom inected phones

Cell phone providers are working to prevent SMS spam. Their primary method o receiving reports

rom consumers is or the latter to orward messages to SPAM (7726) on their phones and report the

messages so that they can be blocked. An inected phone can also send spammy text messages; then

the victims ace the problem o having their accounts closed by the providers. We expect to see pilladvertising or phishing lures delivered by SMS in 2013.

Crimeware

Hacking as a Service

For a long time, cybercriminals have attended public orums to discuss and make business deals

with other criminals. In these meetings, they not only oer sotware or sale but also services. Highly

proessional cybercrooks, however, see these orums as a waste o time (they are ull o newbies),

a loss o condentiality (each deal needs direct contact with the client, who could be an undercover

agent), and a loss o money (as the purchaser attempts to negotiate a lower price). For these reasons,

the number o invitation-only criminal orums requiring registration ees and/or guarantors (vouchers)

has increased.

This trend will continue, but to improve anonymity without discouraging buyers, online sales sitesmodeled on legal trade activities will grow in 2013. On these sites, buyers can make their choices at the

click o a mouse, use an anonymous online payment method (such as Liberty Reserve), and receive their

purchases without any negotiations or direct contact with the seller.

The shopping cart o a buyer looking or crimeware.


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More secure and anonymous, these oers will be easier to nd on the Internet. They will also be more

diversied. We have already started to see high-level audit services and oers or project development

or cybercriminals.4

The number o suspicious outts claiming to sell zero-day attacks or the sale o spying services reserved

or the sole use o governments or secret services will grow. It will be dicult to separate the wheatrom the cha, or to ascertain real activities and real customers.

An advertisement or hacking as a service.


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Hacktivism

The decline o Anonymous

Sympathizers o Anonymous are suering. Too many uncoordinated and unclear operations have been

detrimental to its reputation. Added to this, the disinormation, alse claims, and pure hacking actions

will lead to the movements being less politically visible than in the past. Because Anonymous level otechnical sophistication has stagnated and its tactics are better understood by its potential victims, the

groups level o success will decline. However, we could easily imagine some short-lived spectacular

actions due to convergence between hacktivists and antiglobalization supporters, or hacktivists

and ecoterrorists.

Anonymous is just one aspect o hacktivism. Another more powerul orce is people with strong

political motivation and high availability over a long term. An excellent example o this was the support

or the uprising in Libya, as explained in the story Power People 2.0, published in April 2012 by

MIT Technology Review.5 And to support the actions o these activists, the Telecomix group, not to be

conused with Anonymous, contributed its high-level hacking techniques. Thanks to all o these people,

their actions were signicant. Actions like these should be more visible in the uture whenever a people

will promote a cause that hacktivists consider just.

Meanwhile, patriot groups sel-organized into cyberarmies and spreading their extremist views will

fourish. Up to now their eorts have had little impact (generally deacement o websites or DDoS or

a very short period), but their actions will improve in sophistication and aggressiveness. They will ght

among themselves, certainly, but their avorite targets will be our democratic societies each time we

denounce the extremist governments they support.

Nation states and armies will be more requent actors and victims o cyberthreats

Many o the worlds military units are on the ront line o social networks. They communicate more

and more requently. Proessional orums such as CompanyCommand and proessional wikis involve

the development o online collaborative work.6 Furthermore, military operations use the Internet or

emailing, social networking and, unortunately, visiting dubious websites. All o these elements will

increase the possibilities o inltration and unintentional inormation leakage.

Experts are no longer reluctant to predict national responsibility in military and industrial espionageor precision attacks that cause physical damage, as in the case o Stuxnet or Shamoon. State-related

threats will increase and make the headlines. Suspicions about government-sponsored attacks will

grow. Using zero-day vulnerabilities and sophistical malware, some o these attacks may be considered

advanced persistent threats, while others will involve conventional malware.

In January 2012, the Atlantic Council o the United States published a spectrum to help analysts in

assigning responsibility or a particular attack or campaign o attacks.7 Using ten categories based on

whether a nation ignores, abets, or conducts an attack, this spectrum starts rom a very passive up to

very active responsibility. We predict this measurement tool will be eective in 2013 to judge the actions

o nations ranging rom employing insecure systems that lead to an attack to nations that plan and

execute one.


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Even i they have never launched a cyberattack against noncombatant targets, some terrorists are also

Internet ans. They use the web to communicate, recruit, disseminate propaganda, seek unding, search

or inormation on people and targets, and prepare their assaults. We can read o numerous examples in

various reports, among them The Use o the Internet or Terrorist Purposes, published by the United

Nations Oce on Drugs and Crime.8

The next step could be a combination cyber-physical attack: anonline attack carried out in conjunction with a physical attack. I a group can remotely disrupt a critical

inrastructure, such as a deense or communications system, a conventional attack could more easily

cause more damage. We have no evidence that such a terrorist event will occur in 2013, but today our

ears o one are not just antasy.

About the Authors

This report was prepared and written by Xiao Chen, Toralv Dirro, Paula Greve, Prashant Gupta, Haiei Li,

William McEwan, Franois Paget, Craig Schmugar, Jimmy Shah, Ryan Sherstobito, Dan Sommer, Bing

Sun, Peter Szor, and Adam Wosotowsky o McAee Labs.

About McAee Labs

McAee Labs is the global research team o McAee. With the only research organization devoted to all

threat vectorsmalware, web, email, network, and vulnerabilitiesMcAee Labs gathers intelligence

rom its millions o sensors and its cloud-based service McAee Global Threat Intelligence. The McAee

Labs team o 500 multidisciplinary researchers in 30 countries ollows the complete range o threats

in real time, identiying application vulnerabilities, analyzing and correlating risks, and enabling instant

remediation to protect enterprises and the public. http://www.mcaee.com/labs

About McAee

McAee, a wholly owned subsidiary o Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC), is the worlds largest dedicated

security technology company. McAee delivers proactive and proven solutions and services that help

secure systems, networks, and mobile devices around the world, allowing users to saely connect to the

Internet, browse, and shop the web more securely. Backed by its unrivaled global threat intelligence,

McAee creates innovative products that empower home users, businesses, the public sector, and serviceproviders by enabling them to prove compliance with regulations, protect data, prevent disruptions,

identiy vulnerabilities, and continuously monitor and improve their security. McAee is relentlessly

ocused on constantly nding new ways to keep our customers sae. http://www.mcaee.com


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1 http://www.mcaee.com/us/resources/reports/rp-quarterly-threat-q3-2012.pd2 http://arstechnica.com/inormation-technology/2012/08/orrester-report-urges-html5-adoption-says-most-browsers-can-support-it/

http://www.orrester.com/The+Coming+O+HTML5/ulltext/-/E-RES703413 http://www.contextis.com/research/blog/webgl-new-dimension-browser-exploitation/4 http://blog.xmco.r/index.php?/page/25 http://www.technologyreview.com/eaturedstory/427640/people-power-20/6 http://companycommand.army.mil/index.htm7 http://www.acus.org/les/publication_pds/403/022212_ACUS_NatlResponsibilityCyber.PDF8 http://www.unodc.org/documents/rontpage/Use_o_Internet_or_Terrorist_Purposes.pd

The inormation in this document is provided only or educational purposes and or the convenience o McAee customers. The inormation

contained herein is subject to change without notice, and is provided as is, without guarantee or warranty as to the accuracy or applicability

o the inormation to any specifc situation or circumstance.

McAee, the McAee logo, and McAee Global Threat Intelligence are registered trademarks or trademarks o McAee, Inc. or its subsidiaries in

h i d S d h i h k d b d b l i d h h C i h
http://www.mcafee.com/us/resources/reports/rp-quarterly-threat-q3-2012.pdfhttp://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2012/08/forrester-report-urges-html5-adoption-says-most-browsers-can-support-it/http://www.forrester.com/The%2BComing%2BOf%2BHTML5/fulltext/-/E-RES70341http://www.contextis.com/research/blog/webgl-new-dimension-browser-exploitation/http://blog.xmco.fr/index.php%3F/page/2http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/427640/people-power-20/http://companycommand.army.mil/index.htmhttp://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/403/022212_ACUS_NatlResponsibilityCyber.PDFhttp://www.unodc.org/documents/frontpage/Use_of_Internet_for_Terrorist_Purposes.pdfhttp://www.unodc.org/documents/frontpage/Use_of_Internet_for_Terrorist_Purposes.pdfhttp://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/403/022212_ACUS_NatlResponsibilityCyber.PDFhttp://companycommand.army.mil/index.htmhttp://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/427640/people-power-20/http://blog.xmco.fr/index.php%3F/page/2http://www.contextis.com/research/blog/webgl-new-dimension-browser-exploitation/http://www.forrester.com/The%2BComing%2BOf%2BHTML5/fulltext/-/E-RES70341http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2012/08/forrester-report-urges-html5-adoption-says-most-browsers-can-support-it/http://www.mcafee.com/us/resources/reports/rp-quarterly-threat-q3-2012.pdf

McAfee 2013 Threats Predictions (Cyber War)

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