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www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
May 25, 2018
www.angelbroking.com
Market Cues
Indian markets are likely to open positive tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
U.S. Stocks once again staged a recovery attempt over the course of the trading day
on Thursday. The major averages climbed well off their worst levels of the day but
still closed in negative territory. The Dow Jones dipped by 0.3% to 24,811 and the
Nasdaq was flat 0.0% at 7,424.
U.K. stocks gave up earlier gains to turn lower on yesterday as the pound climbed
against its major rivals after the release of upbeat retail sales data. Retail sales
volume, including auto fuel, expanded 1.6 percent month-on-month in April, in
contrast to a 1.1 percent fall in March, official data showed. Sales were forecast to
climb 0.9 percent. The benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.9% at 7,717.
On domestic front, Indian shares rose sharply on Thursday, with IT stocks leading
the surge as a weakening rupee helped lift IT stocks. The trading started flat with
dovish Fed minutes as well as a drop in crude oil prices offering some support after
recent heavy losses. The BSE Sensex was up by 0.9% to 34,663.
News Analysis
Sebi allows 'omnibus' trade structure at Gift City to ease market access
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Top Picks
Company Sector Rating CMP
(`) Target
(`) Upside
(%)
Blue Star Capital Goods Buy 705 867 23.0
Dewan Housing Finance Financials Buy 601 720 19.8
Parag Milk Foods Others Buy 331 410 23.9
Navkar Corporation Others Buy 150 265 76.7
KEI Industries Capital Goods Buy 478 589 23.4
More Top Picks on Pg4
Key Upcoming Events
Date Region Event Description Previous
Reading
Consensus
Expectations
May 25, 2018 UK GDP (YoY) 1.20 1.20
May 29, 2018 US Consumer Confidence 128.70 128.00
May 30, 2018 US GDP Qoq (Annualised) 2.30 2.30
May 30, 2018 Germany Unemployment change (000's) (7.00)
May 31, 2018 China PMI Manufacturing 51.40
More Events on Pg7
Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
BSE Sensex 0.9 318 34,663
Nifty 0.8 84 10,514
Mid Cap (0.2) (38) 15,662
Small Cap (0.1) (23) 16,954
Bankex 1.4 407 29,242
Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Dow Jones (0.3) (75) 24,811
Nasdaq (0.0) (1.5) 7,424
FTSE (0.9) (72) 7,717
Nikkei (1.1) (253) 22,437
Hang Seng 0.3 95 30,760
Shanghai Com (0.5) (14) 3,155
Advances / Declines BSE NSE
Advances 1,263 698
Declines 1,398 1,117
Unchanged 134 66
Volumes (` Cr)
BSE 3,147
NSE 28,862
Net Inflows (` Cr) Net Mtd Ytd
FII (1,428) (6,056) 1,341
*MFs (23) 7,379 53,132
Top Gainers Price (`) Chg (%)
EROSMEDIA 142 19.1
NCC 114 8.8
KSCL 507 7.5
ASTRAL 970 7.0
JUSTDIAL 465 6.6
Top Losers Price (`) Chg (%)
GET&D 331 -8.5
GRANULES 83 -7.3
JETAIRWAYS 392 -7.0
TATASTEELPP 132 -6.9
OIL 215 -6.8
As on May 24, 2018
2
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Market Outlook
May 25, 2018
www.angelbroking.com
News Analysis
Sebi allows 'omnibus' trade structure at Gift City to ease
market access
Capital market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on
Thursday allowed ‘omnibus’ trades at the Gujarat International Finance Tec-
city (GIFT City), India’s only international financial service centre (IFSC). An
omnibus structure allows an investor trade through a broker or service
provider with confidentiality. Such structures are allowed at major jurisdiction
worldwide. With a view to further facilitate ease of market access for foreign
investors and based on feedback received from market participants, it has
been decided to permit segregated nominee account structure in IFSC. Orders
of foreign investors may be routed through eligible segregated nominee
account providers for trading on stock exchanges in IFSC.
Permission for omnibus trading comes at a time when Indian exchanges have
snapped ties with foreign bourses in order to curb offshore trading of Indian
products. This brings Gift City at par with any international market.
Earlier, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) couldn’t trade at Gift without setting
up a shop there. Omnibus structure will now allow them to trade directly
Economic and Political News
Rs 130 bn tenders withdrawn or cancelled to promote Make in India products
States must reduce duty on petrol, create fiscal space, says NITI Aayog V-C
Andhra plans Rs51,000 crore capex in 1st phase of Amaravati project
India drags US to WTO over levy of additional duties on steel, aluminium
Corporate News
Sebi allows 'omnibus' trade structure at Gift City to ease market access
DoT clears Rs 40 bn Idea-ATC mobile tower deal, paves way for Voda merger
GAIL India March quarter net profit posts four-fold jump to Rs.10.21 bn
Chhattisgarh ties up with Dabur to provide herbs for ayurvedic products
3
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Market Outlook
May 25, 2018
www.angelbroking.com
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Sunpharma Ltd – May 25, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)
Sales 6,703 7,136 (6.1) 6,653 2.3
EBIDTA 1,449 1,547 (6.3) 1,453 (0.3)
% 21.6 21.7
21.8
PAT 895 1,385 (35.4) 400 123.7
Cadila Healthcare Ltd – May 25, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)
Sales 3,207 2,478 29.5 3,259 (1.6)
EBIDTA 794 463 71.5 841 (5.6)
% 24.5 18.7
25.8
PAT 546 385 41.9 543 0.6
Tech Mahindra Ltd – May 25, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)
Sales 7,987 7,495 6.5 7,775 2.7
EBIDTA 1,344 898 49.7 1,264 6.3
% 16.8 11.9
16.2
PAT 930 589 57.9 924 0.6
Bank of Baroda Ltd – May 25, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)
PAT (28) 154
111
4
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Market Outlook
May 25, 2018
www.angelbroking.com
Top Picks
Company Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`) Target
(`) Upside
(%) Rationale
Alkem Laboratories 23,255 1,945 2,441 25.5
Strong growth in domestic business due to its
leadership in acute therapeutic segment. Alkem
expects to launch more products in USA, which
bodes for its international business.
Blue Star 6,770 705 867 23.0
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
Dewan Housing Finance 18,851 601 720 19.8
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
ICICI Bank 1,91,119 297 416 39.9
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
KEI Industries 3,742 478 589 23.4
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Music Broadcast Limited 1,953 342 475 38.8
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Navkar Corporation 2,258 150 265 76.7
Massive capacity expansion along with rail
advantage at ICD as well CFS augur well for the
company
Siyaram Silk Mills 2,854 609 851 39.8
Strong brands and distribution network would
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at
an inexpensive valuation.
Maruti 2,54,043 8,410 10,619 26.3
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
GIC Housing 2,037 378 655 73.1
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
LT Foods 2,674 84 128 53.1
We expect sales/PAT to grow at 13.5%/20% over
next two years on the back of strong distribution
network & addition of new products in portfolio.
Safari Industries 1,409 633 750 18.4
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
HSIL Ltd 2,588 358 510 42.5
We expect HSIL to report PAT CAGR of ~15% over
FY2017-20E owing to better improvement in
operating margin due price hike in container glass
segment, turnaround in consumer business.
Source: Company, Angel Research
5
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Market Outlook
May 25, 2018
www.angelbroking.com
Top Picks
Company Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`) Target
(`) Upside
(%) Rationale
Aditya Birla Capital 31,233 142 218 53.6
We expect financialisation of savings and
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
Parag Milk Foods 2,784 331 410 23.9
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
Matrimony.com Ltd 1,704 750 1,016 35.5
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to
strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage
related services. On the bottom-line front, we
expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same
period on the back margin improvement.
HDFC Bank 5,15,733 1,986 2,315 16.6
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
M&M 102638 831 990 19.2
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Source: Company, Angel Research
6
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Market Outlook
May 25, 2018
www.angelbroking.com
Fundamental Call
Company Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`) Target
(`) Upside
(%) Rationale
CCL Products 4,156 312 360 15.2
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth trajectory
over FY18-20 backed by capacity expansion and
new geographical foray
Nilkamal 2,453 1,644 2,178 32.5
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate ~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India Ltd 1,622 2,046 2,500 22.2
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries 3,396 277 395 42.6
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
GMM Pfaudler Ltd 1,172 802 920 14.7
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian market
leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipment. GMM is
expected to cross CAGR 15%+ in revenue over the
next few years mainly led by uptick in demand from
user industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
L&T Finance Holding 32,511 163 210 28.9
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
2
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Market Outlook
May 25, 2018
www.angelbroking.com
Key Upcoming Events
Result Calendar
Date Company
May 25, 2018 Sun Pharma, Tech Mahindra, Bank of Baroda, Cadila Healthcare, IDBI Bank, Page Industries
May 26, 2018 Corporation Bank, Nalco, Sarda Energy, Divi's Lab.
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar
Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
May 25, 2018 2:00 PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 1Q P 1.20 1.20
May 29, 2018 7:30 PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 May 128.70 128.00
May 30, 2018 6:00 PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 1Q S 2.30 2.30
1:25 PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands May (7.00)
May 31, 2018 6:30 AM China PMI Manufacturing Value May 51.40
Jun 01, 2018 6:00 PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands May 164.00 195.00
6:00 PM US Unnemployment rate % May 3.90 3.90
2:00 PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value May 53.90
Jun 06, 2018 2:30 PM India RBI Repo rate % Jun 6 6.00
2:30 PM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jun 6 5.75
2:30 PM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jun 6 4.00
Jun 07, 2018 2:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 1Q F 0.40
Jun 08, 2018 China Exports YoY% % Change May 12.90
Jun 09, 2018 7:00 AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change May 1.80
Jun 11, 2018 2:00 PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Apr 2.90
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
3
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Market Outlook
May 25, 2018
www.angelbroking.com
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 24 May, 2018
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
Source: RBI, Angel Research
7.3 7.6
8.0
7.2
9.1
8.1
7.6
6.8
6.1
5.7
6.5
7.2
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
4Q
FY15
1Q
FY16
2Q
FY16
3Q
FY16
4Q
FY16
1Q
FY17
2Q
FY17
3Q
FY17
4Q
FY17
1Q
FY18
2Q
FY18
3Q
FY18
(%)
2.9
(0.3)
1.0
4.8
4.1
1.8
8.5
7.3 7.4 7.0
4.4
(1.0)
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
(%)
2.2
1.5
2.4
3.3 3.3
3.6
4.9
5.2 5.1
4.4 4.3
4.6
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
(%)
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0 M
ar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Mfg. PMI Services PMI
(5.0)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
Jul-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Apr-18
Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)
4
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Market Outlook
May 25, 2018
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Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research as on 24 May, 2018
0.3
2.5
5.3
6.9
1.1
5.0
5.8
3.7
1.5
2.2
0.8
1.8
1.4
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Bra
zil
Russia
Ind
ia
Ch
ina
South
Africa
Ind
onesia
Ma
laysia
Tha
ilan
d
UK
USA
Germ
any
France
Ja
pa
n
(%)
0.7
1.8
6.7 6.8
0.7
5.2 5.4
3.7
1.7
2.2 2.0
1.6 1.5
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South A
frica
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germ
any
France
Japan
(%)
12
.1
5.7
18
.8
11
.9
15
.6
15
.7
15
.2
15
.3
13
.9
16
.0
13
.2
14
.7
13
.8
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South
Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germ
any
France
Japan
(x)
5
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Market Outlook
May 25, 2018
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Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country Name of index Closing price 1M 3M 1YR
Brazil Bovespa 80,867 (5.5) (5.8) 19.7
Russia Micex 4,485 1.4 7.1 11.4
India Nifty 10,430 (0.7) 1.3 11.4
China Shanghai Composite 3,169 2.7 0.0 2.1
South Africa Top 40 50,600 (0.5) (3.1) 5.1
Mexico Mexbol 45,777 (5.5) (6.4) (6.7)
Indonesia LQ45 923 (7.8) (15.0) 1.3
Malaysia KLCI 1,804 (4.1) (1.9) 1.6
Thailand SET 50 1,156 (3.8) (2.7) 15.8
USA Dow Jones 24,887 1.8 0.4 18.4
UK FTSE 7,788 5.7 7.5 3.6
Japan Nikkei 22,690 2.4 4.5 13.9
Germany DAX 12,977 3.5 4.7 2.6
France CAC 5,566 2.8 5.7 5.3
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 24 May, 2018
6
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Market Outlook
May 25, 2018
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Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added Top Picks/Fundamental Stocks Reco Price Target/Revised Price Current Status
04-05-2018 Top Picks M&M 860 990 Open
03-05-2018 Fundamental L&T Finance Holding 171 210 Open
02-05-2018 Top Picks HDFC Bank 1944 2315 Open
04-05-2018 Top Picks Matrimony.com Ltd 810 1016 Open
20-04-2018 Top Picks Matrimony.com Ltd 781 984
15-05-2018 Top Picks Parag Milk Foods Limited 310 410 Open
16-04-2018 Top Picks Parag Milk Foods Limited 249 333
14-05-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 818 900 Open
06-04-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 712 861
07-03-2018 Fundamental Ashok Leyland Ltd 139 163 Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018 Fundamental Greenply Industries 340 395 Open
16-04-2018 Top Picks Safari Industries 651 750 Open
21-02-2018 Top Picks Safari Industries 532 650
16-02-2018 Top Picks HSIL Ltd 433 510 Open
07-02-2018 Fundamental Elantas Beck India Ltd. 2155 2500 Open
01-02-2018 Top Picks ICICI Bank 352 416 Open
01-02-2018 Top Picks Aditya Birla Capital 167 218 Open
04-01-2018 Fundamental CCL Products 278 360 Open
03-01-2018 Fundamental Nilkamal Ltd 1880 2178 Open
01-01-2018 Fundamental Capital First Ltd 693 850 Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017 Fundamental Shreyans Industries Ltd 205 247 Closed
Fundamental Prism Cement Ltd
160 Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017 Fundamental Prism Cement Ltd 118 131
18-12-2017 Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited 92 114 Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017 Top Picks Ruchira Papers Ltd. 188 244 Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018 Top Picks Century Plyboards India 280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017 Top Picks Century Plyboards India 317 400
19-12-2017 Top Picks LT Foods 85 128 Open
06-11-2017 Top Picks LT Foods 74 96
16-10-2017 Fundamental Endurance Technologies Ltd 1111 1277 Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017 Top Picks GIC Housing 533 655 Open
10-10-2017 Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited 404 475 Open
20-07-2017 Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited 368 434
07-07-2017 Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd 149 179 Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017 Fundamental Syngene International 478 564 Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017 Top Picks Maruti 7371 10619 Open
05-06-2017 Top Picks Karur Vysya Bank 127 100 Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018 Top Picks KEI Industries 481 589 Open
04-01-2017 Top Picks KEI Industries 125 485
01-12-2016 Top Picks Alkem Lab 1700 2441 Open
17-10-2016 Top Picks Asian Granito 267 534 Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018 Top Picks TV Today Network 460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016 Top Picks TV Today Network 297 603
05-04-2016 Top Picks DHFL 189 720 Open
05-01-2016 Top Picks Navkar Corporation 207 265 Open
08-12-2015 Top Picks Blue Star 357 867 Open
30-10-2015 Top Picks Siyaram Silk Mills 186 851 Open
Source: Company, Angel Research
7
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Market Outlook
May 25, 2018
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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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