May 2015 U.S. employment update and outlook

U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

After a slowdown in March, April

sees a return to growth

U.S. employment situation: April 2015 May 8, 2015

April 2015 employment summary

• After a slow March, both in terms of employment but also GDP growth, job creation returned to near-normal levels in April, with the U.S.

economy adding 223,000 net new jobs over the course of the month. Growth was relatively evenly distributed: PBS, education and health

and construction continued to be leaders, adding a combined 168,000 new jobs in April. Other sectors were more muted, while mining and

logging contracted due to sharp declines in energy prices.

• Unemployment fell by 10 basis points to a recovery low of 5.4 percent. Although the labor force participation rate rose by the same margin,

a 58,000-person increase in the number of new entrants and gains in job openings and hirings figures helped to push down the official

unemployment rate. Total unemployment also dipped by 10 basis points to a recovery low of 10.8 percent.

• Unemployment for college graduates rose by a modest 20 basis points to 2.7 percent, but is still half the national rate. However, labor force

participation remains relatively flat, particularly for high-school graduates.

• Continued declines in unemployment have kept wage growth stable at 2.2 percent. With these figures set to fall even further over the

coming months, wages may rise even faster. Importantly, wages are currently increasing at a faster pace than the consumer price index

due to the ongoing collapse in energy prices.

• Office-using industries contributed 74,000 jobs to April’s growth, far higher than in March. PBS moved back to stable levels of gains at

62,000 jobs, while financial activities has average monthly increases of 11,000.

• At the market level, Silicon Valley saw 5.5-percent annual job growth, among the highest rates recorded for a JLL-tracked market this cycle.

Tech-heavy markets such as San Francisco and Seattle as well as the rapidly growing Sun Belt markets such as the Carolinas, South

Florida and red-hot Texas.

- Even slower growth markets, particularly those in the Great Lakes, Midwest and Northeast, posted small but significant bumps in annual

growth rates. Cleveland and St. Louis, for instance, broke the 1.0-percent barrier in April.

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

April 2015 labor market at a glance

+223,000

1-month net change

+2,982,000

12-month net change

+650,000

10-year average annual growth


5.4%

Unemployment rate

-90bp

12-month change in unemployment

7.1%

10-year average unemployment

5,133,000

Job openings

4,916,000

Hires

2,687,000

Hires

April saw 223,000 new jobs added to the economy after a slow

March that was revised downward 36

0,00

0

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

106,

000

122,

000

221,

000

183,

000

164,

000 19

6,00

0

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

160,

000

150,

000

161,

000

225,

000

203,

000

214,

000

197,

000

280,

000

141,

000

203,

000

199,

000

201,

000

149,

000

202,

000

164,

000

237,

000 27

4,00

0

84,0

00

166,

000

188,

000 22

5,00

0

330,

000

236,

000

286,

000

249,

000

213,

000 25

0,00

0

221,

000

423,

000

329,

000

201,

000

266,

000

85,0

00

223,

000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep

-11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep

-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

4


YTD gains of 775,000 new jobs keep unemployment slowly

falling to a cyclical low of 5.4 percent in April

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


5

For the first time in the recovery, job openings surpass 5.0

million as corporates seek additional headcount


6

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Job

open

ings

(th

ousa

nds)

-15.0

-4.5

-1.0

1.0

1.3

2.0

3.0

6.0

6.0

9.0

10.0

12.1

15.2

16.1

17.0

45.0

55.6

61.0

62.0

-20 0 20 40 60 80

Mining and logging

Wholesale trade

Durable goods

Manufacturing

Utilities

Nondurable goods

Information

Other services

Motor vehicles and parts

Financial activities

Government

Retail trade

Transportation and warehousing

Temporary help services

Leisure and hospitality

Construction

Health care and social assistance

Education and health services

Professional and business services

1-month net change (thousands)

PBS, education, health and construction continue to see

healthy growth; gains elsewhere more muted


7

PBS

Education and health

Retail trade

All other subsectors

Top three

subsectors

responsible for

75.3 percent of

monthly

growth.

Surge in construction employment gives goods-producing job

creation a boost in April

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Goods-producing Service-providing


8

-21.0

10.7

20.0

51.0

55.0

64.0

66.0

95.7

151.0

151.0

160.0

164.2

180.0

280.0

284.9

434.0

505.8

564.0

654.0

-200 0 200 400 600 800

Mining and logging

Utilities

Nondurable goods

Motor vehicles and parts

Information

Government

Other services

Wholesale trade

Temporary help services


Durable goods

Transportation and warehousing

Manufacturing

Construction

Retail trade


Health care and social assistance

Education and health services

Professional and business services

12-month net change (thousands)

PBS

Education and health


Retail trade

Manufacturing


All other jobs

All subsectors but mining and logging, which has been

affected by a slump in energy prices, have seen annual growth


9

Core subsectors added 76.1 percent

of all jobs over the past 12 months.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Une

mpl

oym

ent (

%)

White-collar unemployment is hovering around 2.6 percent,

moving up 20 basis points to 2.7 percent in April


10

Labor force participation rises modestly for white-collar

employees, flat for high school graudates


11

54.0%

55.0%

56.0%

57.0%

58.0%

59.0%

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

70.0%

71.0%

72.0%

73.0%

74.0%

75.0%

76.0%

77.0%

78.0%

79.0%

80.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hig

h sc

hool

gra

duat

e la

bor

forc

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

rate

(%

)

Col

lege

gra

duat

e la

bor

forc

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

rate

(%

)

Bachelor's degree High school, no college

In line with rapid drops in energy prices, energy employment

growth has ground to a near-halt

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through March 2015.

12

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e (jo

bs)

Tech job creation continues to hover slightly below 6.0 percent

due to sustained industry demand Year-on-year percent employment growth


13

Weekly claims over the course of 2015 have averaged just

291,000 and continue to fall slowly

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor

14

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Cla

ims

Initial claims 4-week moving average

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hire

s an

d qu

its (

thou

sand

s)

Hires Quits

Hires and quits dropped slightly, but within the normal range of

monthly variation and still trending upward


Silicon Valley job creation reaches 5.5 percent year-on-year,

continuing to lead among major markets


16

Dallas

3.6%

San Francisco

4.4%

Seattle

3.5%

Raleigh-

Durham

3.4% Silicon Valley

5.5%

South Florida

3.9%

Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still growing

slower, but have seen a small bump of late

17


Hampton

Roads

0.6%

St. Louis

1.1%

Milwaukee

0.5%

Pittsburgh

0.4% Cleveland

1.4%

Fairfield

County

1.3%

Total unemployment also dipped by 10 basis points in April to

10.8 percent

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


18

Sustained job creation has modestly improved labor force

participation to 62.8 percent; still well below norm


19

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

66.0%

67.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Labo

r fo

rce

part

icip

atio

n ra

te (

%)

A 58,000-person increase in new entrants in April was the

primary reason for labor force pariticipation’s rise

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ent

rant

s (t

hous

ands

)

Re-entrants New entrants


Office-using jobs contributed a stable one-third of new jobs in

April, with financial activities posting more robust increases


21

PBS doubled its monthly growth in April compared to March,

while financial activities is averaging 11,000 new monthly jobs

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Information Professional and business services Financial activities

PBS represented 78.2 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.

In April 2015, it represented 83.8 percent of monthly growth.


22

Temporary help services registered a moderate boost in April,

but continues to grow much slower than earlier in the recovery

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

2,200.0

2,400.0

2,600.0

2,800.0

3,000.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mon

thly

net

cha

nge

in jo

bs (

ths)

Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment

Temporary em

ployment (ths)


23

©2015 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

For more information, please contact:

Ben Breslau

Managing Director - Americas Research

[email protected]

John Sikaitis

Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research

[email protected]

Phil Ryan

Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research

[email protected]

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May 2015 U.S. employment update and outlook

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