May 10, 2018 -...

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Market Outlook May 10, 2018


Market Cues

Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.

U.S. Stocks showed a notable move to the upside during the trading day on Wednesday after ending the previous session roughly flat. The strength on Wall Street was partly due to a sharp increase by the price of crude oil following President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. The Dow Jones rose to 24,543 and the Nasdaq was up by %1 to 7,340

U.K. shares rose notably on Wednesday as rallying oil prices helped lift energy stocks and investors remained hopeful that the Iran nuclear deal will remain partially intact, even without the United States. The benchmark FTSE 100 was up 1.3% at 7,663.

On domestic front, Indian shares eked out modest gains on Wednesday as investors remained hopeful that the Iran nuclear deal will remain partially intact, even without the United States. The broader sentiment was not affected after China, Russia, Germany, France and the U.K. said they would stick with the Iranian nuclear deal that lasts until 2030. The BSE Sensex ended on a positive of 0.3% at 35,319.

News Analysis M&M CMP - `860 TP - `990 Upside -15%

Detailed analysis on Pg2

Investor’s Ready Reckoner

Key Domestic & Global Indicators

Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks

Refer Pg5 onwards

Top Picks Company Sector Rating CMP

(`) Target

(`) Upside

(%) Blue Star Capital Goods Accumulate 782 867 10.8

Dewan Housing Finance Financials Buy 625 720 15.2

Century Plyboards Forest Product Buy 304 400 31.6

Navkar Corporation Others Buy 161 265 64.8

KEI Industries Capital Goods Accumulate 440 485 10.2 More Top Picks on Pg4

Key Upcoming Events Date Region Event Description Previous

Reading Consensus

Expectations May 10, 2018 US Consumer price index (mom) (0.10) 0.30

May 10, 2018 US Initial Jobless claims 211.00 219.00

May 10, 2018 UK Industrial Production (YoY) 2.20 3.10

May 10, 2018 India Industrial Production YoY 7.10 5.70 May 10, 2018 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.10 1.90 More Events on Pg7

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

BSE Sensex 0.3 103 35,319

Nifty 0.2 24 10,742

Mid Cap (0.6) (105) 16,530

Small Cap (0.1) (24) 18,085

Bankex 0.2 67 29,432

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

Dow Jones 0.7 182 24,543

Nasdaq 1.0 73 7,340

FTSE 1.3 97 7,663

Nikkei (0.4) (100) 22,409

Hang Seng 0.4 133 30,536

Shanghai Com (0.1) (2) 3,159

Advances / Declines BSE NSE

Advances 1,170 753

Declines 1,533 1,019

Unchanged 125 87

Volumes (` Cr)

BSE 3,188

NSE 28,964

Net Inflows (` Cr) Net Mtd Ytd

FII 364 (2,253) 5,144

*MFs (14) 2,021 47,774

Top Gainers Price (`) Chg (%)

FSL 72 12.2

SINTEX 18 8.3

MHRIL 337 6.3

LINDEINDIA 456 6.2

HCL-INSYS 51 5.4

Top Losers Price (`) Chg (%)

GREAVESCOT 139 -4.1

SHARDACROP 384 -3.8

AEGISLOG 285 -3.6

RNAVAL 18 -3.5

CHOLAFIN 1603 -3.5 As on May 09, 2018

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News Analysis

Mahindra & Mahindra: CMP: - `860 Target Price: - `990 Upsides: 15%

About the company: Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd (M&M) is an India-based company. The company operates in nine segments: automotive segment comprises sales of automobiles, spare parts and related services; farm equipment segment comprises sales of tractors, spare parts and related services; information technology (IT) services comprises services rendered for IT and telecom; financial services comprises services relating to financing, leasing and hire purchase of automobiles and tractors; steel trading and processing; infrastructure comprising operating of commercial complexes, project management and development; hospitality segment comprises sale of timeshare; Systech segment comprises automotive components and other related products and services, and others segment comprises logistics, after-market, two wheelers and investment. Outlook and Valuation: We expect Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) to report net revenue CAGR of ~15% to ~`62,218cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to healthy growth in automobile segment like Utility Vehicles (on the back of new launches and facelift of some models) and strong growth in Tractors segment driven by strong brand recall and improvement in rural sentiment. Further on the bottom-line front, we expect CAGR of ~15% to `4,771cr over the same period on the back of margin improvement. Thus, we recommend BUY rating on the stock with target price of `990.

Economic and Political News

Govt considering 100% FDI in insurance intermediaries to attract more funds

President Trump's sanctions on Iran could be a sharp blow to India as oil prices zoom

Chinese airlines sends proposal to spread wings in Indian skies

India's stressed, debt-laden banks getting cheap overseas loans now

Corporate News

Walmart buys 77 per cent stake in Flipkart for $16 billion

Jaypee Infratech lenders reject Rs 73.5 bn bid by Lakshwadeep

Tyremakers in India line up aggressive capacity expansion plans

eBay to relaunch in India post Flipkart-Walmart big billion deal


http://www.business-standard.com/article/finance/india-s-stressed-debt-laden-banks-getting-cheap-overseas-loans-now-118050900428_1.html




Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Titan Ltd – May 10, 2018

Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)

Sales 4,005 3,257 22.9 4,274 (6.3)

EBIDTA 333 253 31.6 422 (21.1)

% 8.3 7.2 9.9

PAT 250 178 40.4 281 (11.1)

Asian Paints Ltd – May 10, 2018


Sales 4,420 3,908 13.1 4,260 3.8

EBIDTA 834 707 17.9 891 (6.4)

% 18.9 18.1 20.9

PAT 541 479 12.9 567 (4.6)

Nestle India Ltd – May 10, 2018


Sales 2,830 2,491 13.6 2,601 8.9

EBIDTA 657 517 27.1 533 23.3

% 23.2 20.8 20.6

PAT 395 306 29.1 311 27.1

Havells Ltd – May 11, 2018


Sales 2,514 1,710 47.1 1,965 27.9

EBIDTA 332 152 118.1 262 26.7

% 13.2 8.9 13.3

PAT 221 94 135.1 194 13.9





Top Picks Company Market Cap

(` Cr) CMP

(`) Target

(`) Upside

(%) Rationale

Alkem Laboratories 24,206 2,025 2,441 20.6

Strong growth in domestic business due to its leadership in acute therapeutic segment. Alkem expects to launch more products in USA, which bodes for its international business.

Blue Star 7,512 782 867 10.8

Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for Cooling products business which is out pacing the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once operating environment turns around.

Dewan Housing Finance 19,608 625 720 15.2

With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI) consumer segment, the company has increased its presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth opportunity is immense.

ICICI Bank 1,97,426 307 416 35.5

Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost, which would help to report better ROE.

KEI Industries 3,448 440 485 10.2 High order book execution in EPC segment, rising B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues and profitability

Music Broadcast Limited 2,074 364 475 30.7 Expected to benefit from the lower capex requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast licensing.

Navkar Corporation 2,420 161 265 64.8 Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD as well CFS augur well for the company

Siyaram Silk Mills 3,078 657 851 29.6 Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive valuation.

TV Today Network 2,688 451 603 33.8

Market leadership in Hindi news genre and no. 2 viewership ranking in English news genre, exit from the radio business, and anticipated growth in ad spends by corporate to benefit the stock.

Maruti 2,63,221 8,714 10,619 21.9 GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to improve the company’s sales volume and margins, respectively.

GIC Housing 2,248 418 655 56.9 We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM improvement

Century Plyboards 6,754 304 400 31.6

We expect CPIL to report net Revenue/PAT CAGR of ~17%/16% over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy growth in plywood & lamination business, forayed into MDF & Particle boards on back of strong brand & distribution network.

LT Foods 2,890 90 128 41.7 We expect sales/PAT to grow at 13.5%/20% over next two years on the back of strong distribution network & addition of new products in portfolio.

Safari Industries 1,406 632 750 18.7

Third largest brand play in luggage segment Increased product offerings and improving distribution network is leading to strong growth in business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4 years

HSIL Ltd 2,755 381 510 33.8

We expect HSIL to report PAT CAGR of ~15% over FY2017-20E owing to better improvement in operating margin due price hike in container glass segment, turnaround in consumer business.

Source: Company, Angel Research





Top Picks Company Market Cap

(` Cr) CMP

(`) Target

(`) Upside

(%) Rationale

Aditya Birla Capital 34,645 157 218 38.5 We expect financialisation of savings and increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund would ensure steady growth.

Parag Milk Foods 2,619 311 333 6.9

One of the leading Indian dairy products companies in India created strong brands in dairy products. Rising revenue share of high-margin Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few years.

Matrimony.com Ltd 1,828 805 1,016 26.2

We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of ~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage related services. On the bottom-line front, we expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same period on the back margin improvement.

HDFC Bank 5,13,942 1,979 2,315 17.0

HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the 4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%. Steady growth in interest income and other income aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning visibility. At the current market price, the bank is trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.

M&M 1,06,921 860 990 15.0

We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy growth in automobile segment (on back of new launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its strong brand recall and improvement in rural sentiment






Fundamental Call

Company Market Cap (` Cr)

CMP (`)

Target (`)

Upside (%) Rationale

CCL Products 4,111 309 360 16.5 CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity expansion and new geographical foray

Nilkamal 2,505 1,679 2,178 29.8

We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of ~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the bottom-line front, we estimate ~10% CAGR to `162cr owing to improvement in volumes.

Elantas Beck India Ltd 1,785 2,252 2,500 11.0

Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in liquid insulation segment used in electrical equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives demand from several industries which are expected to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming years.

Greenply Industries 3,648 298 395 32.8

Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood & allied products and medium density fibreboards (MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to ~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy growth in plywood & lamination business on the back of strong brand and distribution network

GMM Pfaudler Ltd 1,199 820 861 5.0

GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR 15%+ in revenue over the next few years mainly led by uptick in demand from user industries and it is also expecting to increase its share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.

L&T Finance Holding 36,451 183 210 15.0 L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of `3000cr would support advance growth.


2


Market Outlook

May 10, 2018

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Key Upcoming Events

Result Calendar

Date Company

May 10, 2018 Apollo Tyres, Union Bank, Indian Bank, Nestle, Asian Paints, Mphasis, ITD Cementation, Quick Heal

May 11, 2018 Tata Global, Canara Bank, Allahabad Bank, Dena Bank, GlaxoSmith Con, Sun TV Network, Relaxo, Nilkamal

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period

Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

May 10, 2018 6:00 PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Apr (0.10) 0.30

6:00 PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands May 5 211.00 219.00

2:00 PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Mar 2.20 3.10

5:30 PM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Mar 7.10 5.70

7:00 AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Apr 2.10 1.90

May 11, 2018 4:30 PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio May 10 0.50 0.50

May 14, 2018 12:00 PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Apr 2.47 2.83

May 15, 2018 2:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 1Q P 0.40

2:00 PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Apr 11.60

7:30 AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Apr 6.00 6.40

India Imports YoY% % Change Apr 7.15

India Exports YoY% % Change Apr (0.66)

11:30 AM Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change 1Q P 2.30

May 16, 2018 2:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Apr F 1.20

6:45 PM US Industrial Production % Apr 0.51 0.60


3


Market Outlook

May 10, 2018


Macro watch

Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

7.3 7.6

8.0

7.2

9.1

8.1

7.6

6.8

6.1

5.7

6.5

7.2

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

4Q

FY15

1Q

FY16

2Q

FY16

3Q

FY16

4Q

FY16

1Q

FY17

2Q

FY17

3Q

FY17

4Q

FY17

1Q

FY18

2Q

FY18

3Q

FY18

(%)

3.2 2.9

(0.3)

1.0

4.8

4.1

1.8

8.5

7.1 7.4

7.1

(1.0)

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

(%)

3.0

2.2

1.5

2.4

3.3 3.3

3.6

4.9

5.2 5.1

4.4 4.3

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

(%)

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0 M

ar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

(10.0)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

Jun-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Mar-18

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

4


Market Outlook

May 10, 2018


Global watch

Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries


Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries

Source: IMF, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries

Source: IMF, Angel Research

0.3

2.5

5.3

6.9

1.1

5.0

5.8

3.7

1.5

2.2

0.8

1.8

1.4

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Bra

zil

Russia

Ind

ia

Ch

ina

South

Africa

Ind

onesia

Ma

laysia

Tha

ilan

d

UK

USA

Germ

any

France

Ja

pa

n

(%)

0.7

1.8

6.7 6.8

0.7

5.2 5.4

3.7

1.7

2.2 2.0

1.6 1.5

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South A

frica

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

UK

USA

Germ

any

France

Japan

(%)

12

.5

6.0

19

.3

12

.2

15

.8

15

.8

15

.6

15

.6

13

.4

15

.7

13

.4

14

.7

14

.0

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South

Africa

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

UK

USA

Germ

any

France

Japan

(x)

5


Market Outlook

May 10, 2018


Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe

Returns (%)

Country Name of index Closing price 1M 3M 1YR

Brazil Bovespa 84,265 (0.7) 0.3 27.5

Russia Micex 4,491 1.4 7.1 11.4

India Nifty 10,742 4.0 (2.5) 15.7

China Shanghai Composite 3,159 1.3 (10.0) 0.5

South Africa Top 40 51,279 4.4 (2.2) 8.9

Mexico Mexbol 46,294 (3.4) (8.5) (7.3)

Indonesia LQ45 954 (5.3) (13.8) 1.4

Malaysia KLCI 1,847 0.6 (0.4) 4.4

Thailand SET 50 1,159 (0.5) (2.7) 16.6

USA Dow Jones 24,543 2.3 (1.5) 17.2

UK FTSE 7,567 5.1 1.6 2.4

Japan Nikkei 22,409 5.7 (2.6) 16.7

Germany DAX 12,943 5.7 2.0 1.5

France CAC 5,535 5.3 4.7 2.2

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research 68in4

6


Market Outlook

May 10, 2018


Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls

Date Added Top Picks/Fundamental Stocks Reco Price Target/Revised Price Current Status

03-05-2018 Fundamental L&T Finance Holding 171 210 Open

02-05-2018 Top Picks HDFC Bank 1944 2315 Open

04-05-2018 Top Picks Matrimony.com Ltd 810 1016 Open

20-04-2018 Top Picks Matrimony.com Ltd 781 984

16-04-2018 Top Picks Parag Milk Foods Limited 249 333 Open

06-04-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 712 861 Open

07-03-2018 Fundamental Ashok Leyland Ltd 139 163 Closed (26/04/2018)

03-03-2018 Fundamental Greenply Industries 340 395 Open

16-04-2018 Top Picks Safari Industries 651 750 Open

21-02-2018 Top Picks Safari Industries 532 650

16-02-2018 Top Picks HSIL Ltd 433 510 Open

07-02-2018 Fundamental Elantas Beck India Ltd. 2155 2500 Open

01-02-2018 Top Picks ICICI Bank 352 416 Open

01-02-2018 Top Picks Aditya Birla Capital 167 218 Open

04-01-2018 Fundamental CCL Products 278 360 Open

03-01-2018 Fundamental Nilkamal Ltd 1880 2178 Open

01-01-2018 Fundamental Capital First Ltd 693 850 Closed (15/01/2018)

30-12-2017 Fundamental Shreyans Industries Ltd 205 247 Closed

Fundamental Prism Cement Ltd

160 Closed (09/05/2018)

21-12-2017 Fundamental Prism Cement Ltd 118 131

18-12-2017 Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited 92 114 Closed (17/01/2018)

14-12-2017 Top Picks Ruchira Papers Ltd. 188 244 Closed (09/02/2018)

28-11-2017 Top Picks Century Plyboards India 317 400 Open

19-12-2017 Top Picks LT Foods 85 128 Open

06-11-2017 Top Picks LT Foods 74 96

16-10-2017 Fundamental Endurance Technologies Ltd 1111 1277 Closed (01/12/2017)

11-09-2017 Top Picks GIC Housing 533 655 Open

10-10-2017 Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited 404 475 Open

20-07-2017 Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited 368 434

07-07-2017 Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd 149 179 Closed (28/8/2017)

06-07-2017 Fundamental Syngene International 478 564 Closed (1/3/2018)

05-07-2017 Top Picks Maruti 7371 10619 Open

04-01-2017 Top Picks KEI Industries 125 485 Open

01-12-2016 Top Picks Alkem Lab 1700 2441 Open

04-08-2016 Top Picks TV Today Network 297 603 Open

05-04-2016 Top Picks DHFL 189 720 Open

05-01-2016 Top Picks Navkar Corporation 207 265 Open

08-12-2015 Top Picks Blue Star 357 867 Open

30-10-2015 Top Picks Siyaram Silk Mills 186 851 Open


7


Market Outlook

May 10, 2018


Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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