WILL THERE BE A MID-TERM REVIEW IN 2017? AND, IF SO,

WHAT SHOULD IT DO? Alan Matthews

Trinity College Dublinalan.matthews@tcd.ie

‘A CAP Reform in 2017?’Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels

13 November 2015

The next CAP reform – already?• CAP2013 is still being phased in

• 2015 first year implementation new Basic Payment Scheme

• 2015 approval of majority of Rural Development Programmes

• 2015 abolition of milk quotas• 2017 abolition of sugar quotas• 2018 latest date for redrawing of

Areas of Natural Constraints• 2019 End-date for countries

transitioning from historic model of direct payments

CAP built-in agenda 2015-2020• 2016 review of experience with EFA’s in first year to assess if

there is a noticeable reduction in production• End 2016 mid-term review of the MFF – ‘revision clause’

• Will determine, inter alia, duration of next MFF• 2017 before end-March: evaluation of EFAs accompanied, where

appropriate, by a proposal for a legislative act to increase the arable area covered by EFAs from 5% to 7%. • Hogan commitment to widen this review to cover other aspects of

simplification of direct payments• End 2017 Commission must present proposal for new MFF

• New CAP budget for period after 2020• Opportunity to propose changes to CAP basic acts

• End 2018 first report on performance of CAP under the Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework

Commission CAP evaluation timetable

• Results from the evaluation study “Mapping and first analysis of CAP implementation" available end 2016

• DG AGRI has proposed four Framework Contracts for the evaluation of contribution of the CAP to expire in 2021:• Viable food production• Sustainable management of natural resources and climate action• To promote a balanced territorial development• On cross-thematic issues, as well as provide for synthesis of

evaluation/study findings• Initial evaluations to start in 2016, with completion in 2017,

to provide a first analysis of the CAP impact• This would be in time to feed into possible revision of CAP

basic acts in parallel with new MFF proposal end 2017.

Problems due to the legislative timetable

• Long lead time for revisions to CAP basic acts• Roadmap – Public consultation – Impact assessment –

Commission proposal – Co-decision• The CAP 2013 revisions started under French Presidency in July

2008 and regulations adopted in December 2013• Link with adoption of post-2020 MFF

• 2014-2020 MFF COM proposal June 2011 – European Council 1st attempt Nov 2012 (17 months) – 2nd attempt Feb 2013 (20 months)

• Post 2020 MFF COM proposal Dec 2017 → • + 17 months May 2018• + 20 months Sept 2018 (not Aug)

• European Parliament elections in June 2019 and new Commission appointed October 2019

Political imperatives• Juncker’s mission letter to incoming Commissioner

• charged him with “reviewing the potential for further simplification in the areas of direct payments and in particular as regards greening, rural development, quality policy and the fruit and vegetables scheme.”

• Other priorities specifically mentioned included renewing efforts in the agricultural sector to contribute to energy efficiency and emissions reductions

• Contributing to the 2016 review of the MFF by identifying ways of further increasing the focus of the CAP on jobs, growth, investment and competitiveness.

• Hogan’s confirmation hearing before the Parliament• Simplification and subsidiarity strategy a priority• CAP mid-term review “once there is sufficient data”

Simplification agenda• Jan 2015: Internal screening including over 800 pages of

proposals from Member States, MEPs and stakeholders • May 2015: first steps

• 6 changes to Commission administrative guidelines to paying agencies

• Adoption of AgriCouncil conclusions on simplification• Autumn 2015:

• changes to delegated and implementing acts on issues other than greening to be ready for claim year 2016

• Commission to report to Nov 2015 Agri Council• Early 2016: review of EFAs and other greening rules

• Changes to be applicable from claim year 2017

A Mid-Term Review?Thus, two possibilities for a ‘Mid-Term Review’ (interpreted to mean proposed changes to the CAP basic acts)• In early 2017, as part of enhanced review of EFAs

• Any changes to EFAs would require changes to the basic act• Simplification may identify issues that require reopening basic acts

• In late 2017, as part of post-2020 MFF package• The CAP budget will again be competing with other EU priorities• Will absence of evidence that the green payment has made a

difference influence the level of the next CAP budget?• Would a MTR take the form of a simultaneous revision of the four

CAP basic acts, or instead a rolling programme of incremental amendments to address particular issues?

Commissioner’s longer-term priorities

Source: DG AGRI

Another CAP reform by 2020?• Don’t hold your breath!• Extensive evidence of reform ‘fatigue’• Focus now on growth and jobs agenda at

the expense of sustainability?• Lack of evidence on impact of CAP2013

reform when preparing next CAP proposals

• The awkward timetable given EP elections and new Commission in 2019 (Matthews, 2015)

• Before 2020 changes most likely to be minor tweaks to the basic acts

• Yet, institutions seem to be gearing up for a substantive CAP review in some areas……….