Materials in a steady state world

Distinguished Lectureship in Materials and Society

Materials in a Steady State World

HARVEY BROOKS

With the r i s e in public conce rn o v e r the deplet ion of na tu ra l r e s o u r c e s , the soc ia l r o l e of the m a t e r i a l s indus t ry has come up fo r c l o s e r sc ru t iny . Wor ld mode l s such a s those being developed by P r o f e s s o r F o r r e s t e r and his co l leagues at M. I .T . l eave l i t t l e room for doubt that e conomic growth cannot cont inue f a r into the t w e n t y - f i r s t cen tury without e n o r m o u s advances in the economica l u se and r e c y c l i n g of nonrenewable r e s o u r c e s . Although s tud ies of spec i f i c r e s o u r c e ava i lab i l i ty such a s those c a r r i e d out by R e s o u r c e s fo r the F u t u r e in- d ica te no m a t e r i a l s c r i s i s be fo re the y e a r 2000, th is o p t i m i s t i c p i c tu re is p r e d i c a t e d on l a r g e and continuing advances in m a t e r i a l s technology ranging al l the way f r o m geophys ica l exploratiola through the m o r e econom ica l use of m a t e r i a l s in des ign . T h e r e i s a s e r i o u s ques t ion a s to whe the r economic i ncen t i ve s to p r iva t e indus t ry wi l l continue to be suff ic ient to cal l for th the n e c e s s a r y r a t e and d i rec t ion of t echno log ica l innovation in the m a t e r i a l s f ie ld to i n s u r e the n e c e s s a r y husbanding of the w o r l d ' s r e s o u r c e s . Wide r g o v e r n m e n t a l , and eventua l ly mul t ina t ional i n t e rven t ion in the a l loca t ion of s c a r c e m a t e r i a l s r e s o u r c e s may b e c o m e n e c e s s a r y to supp lement the s ignals f r o m the m a r k e t p l a c e which may not act suf f ic ient ly fa r in advance . On the o the r hand, t h e r e i s a growing r ea l i z a t i on in the unde r - developed wor ld that they cont ro l the r e s o u r c e s which the deve loped wor ld needs to feed i ts indus t r i a l mach ine and can i n c r e a s i n g l y set t h e i r own p r i c e s . Th is may not be wholly bad in that it wi l l tend to s t imu la t e m o r e innovation in the economica l u se of s c a r c e m a t e - r i a l s and in the deve lopment of subs t i tu te m a t e r i a l s . F u r t h e r m o r e in the long run it may p rov ide a m o r e accep tab le way of t r a n s f e r r i n g needed fo re ign exchange to the l e s s - d e - ve loped coun t r i e s . The m a t e r i a l s indus t ry needs to face up m o r e squa re ly to the fu ture l o n g - r a n g e cha l lenge provided by the u t i l iza t ion of m a t e r i a l s in a wor ld in which m a t e r i a l consumpt ion s imply cannot grow at anything l ike the r a t e s of the r ecen t past to which we have b e c o m e a c c u s t o m e d .

W I T H I N the las t decade the re has a r i s e n a wide - s p r e a d recogni t ion that the world is only a few gen- e r a t i ons f rom a so r t of sa tu ra t ion . In the words of a r ecen t r epo r t to the S e c r e t a r y Gene ra l of the O rgan i - zat ion for Economic Coopera t ion and Deve lopmen t (OECD): 1

DR. HARVEY BROOKS received his A.B. (mathematics) from Yale University in 1937 and his Ph.D. (physics) from Harvard University in 1940, with a year at Cambridge University as Henry Fellow in the in- terim. After a/series of research assignments related to the defense effort, he became Associate Laboratory Head of the Knolls Atomic Power Lab- oratory operated by the General Electric Company for the Atomic En- ergy Commission. He was appointed Gordon McKay Professor of Ap- plied Physics at Harvard in 1950 and Dean of Engineering and Applied Physics in 1957, and, since 1961, he has also been a member of the

"Many a spec t s of developed s o c i e t i e s a r e approaching a condit ion that may be d e s c r i b e d as the p r e c u r s o r of s a tu ra t ion , in the sense that things cannot go on growing much longer in s o m e l ines without r each ing fa i r ly fundamenta l l im i t s . Indica t ions of sa tura t ion a r e p r e sen t in total populat ion, pol lut ion of the env i ron -

Faculty of Public Administration at Harvard. From this base he has played a leading role in the development of

national policy relating to science and engineering, largely through the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineer- hag, but he has also served the U. S. Government in additional capaci- ties such as the Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards of the Atomic Energy Commission and as a member of the U. S. President's Science Advisory Committee.

METALLURGICAL TRANSACTIONS VOLUME 3, APRIL 1972-759

Birth-rate-from- material multiplier

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Fig. 1--Feedback loops that adjust population to natural resources. Repro- duced with permission from Jay W. Forrester, World Dynamics, p. 29, Cambridge:Wright-Allen Press, 1971.

men t , in the s ize of u rban cong lomera t ions , in t ra f f ic , in in format ion over load impinging on the individual , even in higher educat ion and perhaps , in the view of some people, the product ion of new knowledge. This does not mean that growth wil l stop in the next decade, or even that the t ime l imi t s for growth in the fu ture can now be fo reseen in every ins tance , but only that a decl in ing ra te of growth is fo reseeab le within the l i fe- t ime of people now a l ive . In a society now accus tomed to growth in a lmos t a l l i ts aspects dur ing the las t 300 y e a r s , this is something quite new, something that wil l r e q u i r e cons ide rab le ad jus tment . The gene ra l p e r - cept ion of sa tu ra t ion wil l appear only g r a d u a l l y . "

At varying t imes the na tu re of the predic ted s a t u r a - tion has changed. In the ear ly par t of this decade at tent ion focused p r i m a r i l y on the ba lance between populat ion growth and food supply in the unde r - developed count r ies . 2 With the recen t growing evidence of success of the so -ca l l ed " g r e e n revo lu t ion" in As ia , 3 however, a t tent ion has shifted towards other fac tors which may l imi t growth p r i m a r i l y in the developed par t s of the world. These include deplet ion of na tu r a l r e s o u r c e s , the growth of e n v i r o n m e n t a l pol lut ion, and the psychosoc ia l effects of ove rc rowding. It is the indus t r i a l i zed world which consumes mos t of the wor ld ' s r e s o u r c e s and gene ra t e s mos t of the pollut ion, p a r t i c u l a r l y that of a la rge sca le or even global na ture . Economic growth in the indus- t r i a l i zed and u rban ized soc ie t i e s , r a the r than popula t ion growth in the poor coun t r i e s , may thus produce a c r i s i s of growth e a r l i e s t , even though a l l the fac tors ment ioned a re i n t e r r e l a t e d and influence each o ther .

Were the l e s s -deve loped count r ies to reach the p r e sen t m a t e r i a l l iv ing s tandards of the developed count r ies the r e su l t ing r e s o u r c e demands would be eno rmous , but at p r e s e n t r a t e s of development this would take about 130 y e a r s , and during the s ame

period cont inuat ion of p re sen t economic growth ra tes in the developed count r ies would probably have p ro - duced a r e s o u r c e c r i s i s long before the under - developed coun t r i e s accounted for a ma j o r sha re of the total world demand for r e s o u r c e s , despi te the i r g r e a t e r and growing sha re of the wor ld ' s population. Only if the re were subs tan t ia l equal iza t ion of the wor ld ' s m a t e r i a l wealth would the r e s o u r c e demands of the underdeveloped world be a p redominan t factor in the c r i s i s of r e s o u r c e s .

Although the re may be d i s a g r e e m e n t s as to which fac tors a r e m o r e l imi t ing than o thers and as to the exact t iming of the c r i s i s that may be coming for mankind, there is l i t t le a rgumen t that within at mos t two or th ree genera t ions the world wil l have to find a quite d i f ferent technological ba s i s for equ i l ib r ium between man and na tu re . Eventua l ly the world mus t approach some sor t of steady s ta te in which populat ion is nea r ly s ta t ionary , nonrenewable r e s o u r c e s a re r ecyc led , and economic growth, at least as m e a s u r e d by the ut i l iza t ion of m a t e r i a l s and energy , is g rea t ly slowed down or ceases a l together . Of cou r se , this wil l not occur a l l at once , or for a l l economic fac to rs s imul taneous ly . F u r t h e r m o r e , man and the b iosphe re a r e not closed s y s t e m s . They a re con- t inual ly us ing energy , and the cont inuat ion of any c iv i l - ized society demands a cont inuing flow of energy. Whether this p roves to be so la r ene rgy , b r e ede r r e - ac to r s , cont ro l led fusion, or some combinat ion of these , m a n ' s energy supply seems a s s u r e d v i r tua l ly indef in- i te ly , someth ing we could not have said with such con- f idence a few decades ago. Given such a supply of energy a s teady state seems feas ib l e , but indefini te growth is not , if only because even recyc l ing m a t e r i a l s entai ls c a r r y i n g a l a rge r and l a rge r inventory in p ro - ce s s , and eventual ly even the n e c e s s a r y addit ion to the inventory would exceed the e a r t h ' s sources of supply.

760-VOLUME 3, APRIL 1972 METALLURGICAL TRANSACTIONS

Since this paper is about m a t e r i a l s , I p ropose to concen t r a t e on this one a spec t of the p rob lem of a s t eady- s ta te wor ld , and ma in ly on m a t e r i a l s that have the i r s o u r c e in m i n e r a l s which can be r e c y c l e d but not renewed , in con t ras t to a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s o u r c e s o r m a t e r i a l s de r ived t h e r e f r o m .

P r o f e s s o r J ay F o r r e s t e r of M.I .T. has r e c e n t l y pub- l i shed a highly c o n t r o v e r s i a l book under the t i t l e of World Dynamics.4 In it he a t tempts to t r e a t the i m p o r - tant v a r i a b l e s involved in m a n ' s in te rac t ion with the wor ld by means of a compu te r mode l which a g g r e g a t e s p a r a m e t e r s such as na tu r a l r e s o u r c e s consumpt ion or l eve l s of pollution on a worldwide bas i s , ignor ing the

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Fig. 2--Feedback loop for capital investment and material standard of living. Reproduced with permission from Jay W. Forrester, World Dynamics, p. 24, Cambridge:Wright-Allen Press, 1971.

l oca l i zed a spec t s of the i r d i s t r ibu t ion . Fig . 1 shows an example of one of F o r r e s t e r ' s feedback mode l s involving na tu ra l r e s o u r c e s . In this mode l i n c r e a s e d r e s o u r c e use due to r i s ing populat ion dep le tes r e - s o u r c e s and r educes the m a t e r i a l s tandard of l iving, which in turn r e s u l t s in i n c r e a s e s in both the b i r th and death r a t e s . F ig . 2 shows the feedback loop for cap i ta l i nves tmen t . It i n t e r s e c t s the na tura l r e s o u r c e s loop through the ef fec t ive capi ta l i nves tmen t ra t io and the m a t e r i a l s tandard of l iving. The la t te r is the e f fec t ive per capi ta capi ta l i nves tmen t , i.e. the cap i ta l i nves tmen t not used in a g r i c u l t u r e o r r e s o u r c e ex- t r ac t ion . The p r inc ipa l m e c h a n i s m opera t ing in the na tu ra l r e s o u r c e s l imi ted mode l i s that r e s o u r c e ex- t r ac t ion commands an i n c r e a s i n g p ropor t ion of capi ta l i nves tmen t as r e s o u r c e s get s c a r c e r , and thus com- pe tes with the inves tment r e q u i r e m e n t s of a g r i - cu l tu re , ene rgy , and other goods so as to r educe the m a t e r i a l s t andard of l iving. F o r r e s t e r ' s comple te mode l is much m o r e complex than I have indicated, involving many in t e r sec t ing pos i t i ve and negat ive feedback loops. I doubt that the de ta i l s have much r ea l i t y , but I think they do provide a good qua l i t a t ive r e p r e - senta t ion of the dynamics of the s y s t e m . The f inal r e s u l t is shown in Fig . 3, taken f r o m page 70 of F o r r e s t e r ' s book. It shows that na tu ra l r e s o u r c e us - age r e a c h e s a m ax im um in about 2010, while the wor ld populat ion r e a c h e s a m a x i m u m of 5.5 bi l l ions in 2020 and then begins to decl ine r a t h e r rap id ly . This r e su l t is r a t h e r s t a r t l i ng . Most qua l i t a t ive d i scuss ions of the subjec t p ro j ec t a world populat ion leve l ing off in e x c e s s of 10 bi l l ions somewhat l a t e r in the twenty- f i r s t cen tu ry .

One can, of c o u r s e , a rgue end le s s ly about F o r r e s t e r ' s a s sumpt ions . The a g g r e g a t e mode l is v e r y c rude , lumping together subpopulat ions with per capi ta l iving s t andards d i f fer ing by a f ac to r of m o r e than th i r ty . The na tu ra l r e s o u r c e s feedback loop does not r ea l l y take into account t echno log ica l p r o g r e s s in the d i s c o v e r y , ex t r ac t ion , des ign , and use of m a t e r i a l s . But I suspec t even this fac to r wi l l not a l t e r the bas ic

Fig. 3--Behavior of For res te r ' s world model when economic growth and population are limited by the supply of natural resources. Reproduced with permission from Jay W. Forrester , World Dynamics, p. 70, Cambridge:Wright-Allen Press, 1971.

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Fig. 4--Behavior of Forrester ' s model when economic growth and population are limited by the capacity of the environmentlto absorb pollution. Reproduced with permission from Jay W. Forrester, World Dynamics , p. 75, Cambridge:Wright-Allen Press, 1971.

p i c tu re , namely the ex i s tence of an upper l imi t to pop- u la t ion , economic ac t iv i ty , and the qual i ty of life set by na tu ra l r e s o u r c e s , and the v i r tua l ce r t a in ty that this l imit wil l be r e a c h e d - p e r h a p s g radua l ly , perhaps suddenly--within the next cen tury . F o r r e s t e r develops a composi te index he ca l l s the "qual i ty of l i f e . " It is c o m p r i s e d of components for crowding, pol lu t ion , food supply, and per capita capi ta l stock (called " m a t e r i a l s t andard of l iv ing") . In his model , as shown in Fig . 3, this index reaches i ts m a x i m u m value around 1950- 1960, and thus is a l r eady on its way down, desp i te the fact that the m a t e r i a l s t andard of l iving cont inues to r i s e and does not r e ach i ts peak unt i l nea r ly 2000. This mode l at leas t s e e m s to s imula te many peop le ' s subjec t ive percept ions of what is happening today in indus- t r i a l i z ed soc ie t i es .

The fa i lu re of F o r r e s t e r ' s model to take into account the fact that technologica l change in the ex t rac t ion and u t i l iza t ion of m a t e r i a l r e s o u r c e s is a cont inuing p r o c e s s probably accounts for the fact that it y ie lds a populat ion and product ion max imum ra the r than a g rad - ual s a tu ra t ion accompanied by a gradua l d e t e r i o r a t i o n of the quali ty of life index. Yet this obse rva t ion in no way unde rmines the qua l i ta t ive conc lus ions , and it is at leas t poss ib le that the accumula t ing d i s sa t i s f ac t ion of society will in fact a r r e s t the p rocess of t echno- logical change to the point where F o r r e s t e r ' s model may be more r e a l i s t i c than the one we have become accus tomed to in the pas t .

F o r r e s t e r does take into account technica l change in a crude f i r s t approx imat ion by in t roducing a d i scon - t inuous change to a much s lower ra te of r e s o u r c e consumpt ion , beginning in 1970. In this case env i r onme n t a l pol lut ion takes over as the l imi t ing factor to growth, and produces an even sha rpe r max imum in populat ion and product ion, as i l l u s t r a t ed in Fig. 4. Popula t ion r eaches a max imum of 5.9 b i l l ions , only 0.4 b i l l ions higher than the r e s o u r c e - l i m i t e d case , and this ma x i - m u m occurs only ten y e a r s l a t e r , in 2030. The r e mova l of the r e s o u r c e cons t r a in t s imply allows growth to con- t inue for longer , and in tens i f i e s the pol lut ion c r i s i s by

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Fig. 5--Def~ted prices of various categories of natural resources, since 1870. From J. L. Fisher and N. Potter in The Population D i l emma, The American Assembly. Columbia University, P. M. Hauser, ed., (Chart 3) p. 99, published by Prentice-Hail Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N. J., 1963.

sa tu ra t ing the absorp t ive capaci ty of the env i ronment m o r e abrup t ly . The r i s i ng pol lut ion curve s imply hits the stops m o r e steeply.

And if you wish to argue that technological change wil l take ca re of pollution too, the next thing that takes over in F o r r e s t e r ' s model is c rowding, and if you can cont ro l that , then you get back to the food shor tage , and the c r i s i s shifts back f rom the developed to the underdeveloped world. In this " m o s t o p t i m i s t i c " case the world populat ion is asymptot ic to the c lass ic dem-


o g r a p h e r ' s value of 11 b i l l i ons , which i s n ' t r eached unt i l 2200, but by that t ime the qual i ty of life index has de te r io ra t ed to the point that it is about equivalent to that of the underdeveloped count r ies today.

Agains t the p ic tu re p resen ted by such mode l s , and by the equally d e p r e s s i n g p ic ture p resen ted by the env i ronmen ta l i s t s or the demographe r s , we have to set the f requent p red ic t ions of doom in the pas t r e l a t ing to the imminen t exhaust ion of na tu ra l r e s o u r c e s and of the m a t e r i a l bas i s of i ndus t r i a l soc ie t i es . Such p r e - dic t ions were very common in the f i r s t two decades of this cen tury , and yet the actual course of events has been quite the opposi te . In many ins tances the p r i ce of raw m a t e r i a l s has fa l len re la t ive to the p r i c e of ma nu - fac tured goods, and at the very leas t there has been a s u r p r i s i n g l o n g - t e r m p r i ce s tabi l i ty in r e a l t e r m s for the great bulk of r e s o u r c e s of al l kinds .5 As sugges ted by Fig. 5, technology has more than compensa ted for the reduced acces s ib i l i t y of r e s o u r c e s . The f igure shows the re l a t ive s tab i l i ty of deflated p r i c e s , e spec- ia l ly for m i n e r a l s , going back to 1890. Only fo res t p roduc ts , espec ia l ly saw t i m b e r , have shown a long- t e r m upward t r end in r e l a t ive pr ice . In quant i ta t ive t e r m s , the exhaust ive study by Landsberg in 19646 of the future ava i lab i l i ty of r e s o u r c e s for U.S. i ndus t r i a l growth indicated no shor tages before the yea r 2000 even at cu r r en t re la t ive p r i c e s . He said, "The U.S. h i s to r - ica l data do not point to i n c r e a s i n g sca rc i ty in any gen- e r a l s e n s e . " He c i t e s , for example, the fact that " for i ron , a luminum, and manganese . . . the known and i n f e r r e d r e s e r v e s a r e l a rge enough worldwide to supply a l l projec ted demands for the next forty y e a r s without a s ignif icant i n c r e a s e in costs . . . even if the rapid r a t e s of growth of the 1950's con t inue . " Fo r copper , lead, and zinc Lands~erg was less op t imis t i c , but was on the whole confident that subs t i tu te m a t e r i a l s and other, technological changes would aver t any shor t - ages . Even if the underdeveloped count r ies continued at the most op t imis t ic growth ra tes achieved by the m o r e success fu l among them, Landsberg felt there would be no marked de t e r io ra t ion in l iving s t anda rds due to raw m a t e r i a l s ca r c i t y . Rather he thought that "educa t ion , mot iva t ion , and favorable pol ic ies and socia l adap ta t ions" were l ikely to be the pacing fac tors

for growth in the underdeveloped world. However , it is also n e c e s s a r y to note two es sen t i a l

p rov i sos in L a n d s b e r g ' s a s s e s s m e n t , f i r s t " t h a t s c i e n - tific and technologic advance wil l have to be continued unabated and the r e su l t s will have to be t r ans l a t ed into economic r e a l i t y , " and second that man mus t continue to "ex tend a world t rading and inves t ing sys t em in which raw m a t e r i a l def ici ts can be met through impor t s f rom other count r ies with a su rp lus of these m a t e r i a l s . " The ful f i l lment of ne i the r of these pro- visos s e e m s as a s su r e d today as in the ea r ly 1960's when Landsbe rg was wri t ing .

The mos t d ramat ic example of what one nat ion can accompl i sh within the f r amework of such a t rading sys t em i s , of course , Japan , a r e s o u r c e - p o o r country which i mpor t s v i r tua l ly a l l of its nonrenewab le raw m a t e r i a l s and exports them to the world as manu- fac tured products .

One symptom of the cont inuing technologica l advance in both the ex t rac t ion and u t i l i za t ion of m a t e r i a l s in the A m e r i c a n economy is the fact that the m a t e r i a l s for economic growth have been provided by a con- s tant ly dec l in ing f rac t ion of the U.S. labor force. Th i s is ind ica ted in one way in F ig . 6, taken f rom a r ecen t book by Dr . Anne Ca r t e r of Harva rd on the effect of t echnica l change on the s t r u c t u r e of the A m e r i c a n economy s ince 1939. 7 This shows the employment r e - qu i red to de l iver 1961 f inal demand with 1939, 1947, 1958, and 1961 technology. Other s tudies a lso show that employment -ou tpu t t r ends in r e s o u r c e i ndus t r i e s of a l l k inds , but espec ia l ly m i n i ng , have improved d r a m a t i c a l l y . For mining the improvemen t has been a factor of 3.5 s ince 1920. 8 Pe rhaps one symptom of the lack of p r e s s u r e on r e s o u r c e s has been the decl ine of min ing eng ineer ing and ex t rac t ive me ta l lu rgy as subjec ts of teaching and r e s e a r c h in u n i v e r s i t i e s dur ing the las t fifty y e a r s . This in tu rn re f l ec t s low re la t ive pay and o ld- fashioned working condit ions for eng inee r s in the ex t rac t ive i ndus t r i e s . Another index is the fact that the per capita consumpt ion of m i n e r a l s and other r e s o u r c e s has grown much l e s s rapid ly than per capi ta GNP, as indicated in Fig. 7. 9 However , this f igure may give a s l ight ly mis lead ing i m p r e s s i o n because it is probably dominated by i n c r e a s e s in eff iciency in the

Fig. 6--Total gross output levels required to deliver 1961 final demand with 1939, 1947, 1958, and 1961 technologies. From Anne P. Carter, Structural Change in lhe Amer ican Economy, p. 38, Harvard University Press, 1970.

GENERAL INDUSTRIES

MATERIALS

METALWORKING

CHEMICALS

A L L OTHER

1939 1947 1958

37 6%

18 5%

10 6%

3 0% '

30 3%

3 9 8 %

170%

115%

3O%

28 8%

404%

150%

12 2%

3 6%

28 8%

1961

40 8%

12 2%

38%

28 5%

T O T A L OUTPUT REQUIREMENTS 677 ~ ~ 689 - ~ - 689 686

BILLIONS OF 1947 DOLLARS


Zr iER YEAR

, 1~ I TUR

i I I �9 --.~L'r ' ' i 1 1 / 2 % PERYE~ i!!~ii

1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960

Fig. 7--Trends in per capita consumption of various categories of natural resources. From J. L. Fisher and N. Potter in The Population Dilemma, The American Assembly, Columbia University, P. M. Hauser, ed., (Chart 1) p. 97, published by Prentice-Hall Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N. J., 1963.

3c~ - -

100

80

60

r 4O

a 30

~ 2a

B

D

J

~e

U S A � 9

~ Sweden

�9 Netherlands, �9

�9 �9

�9

�9

Hong Kong �9 Spain oeArg entlna �9 Venezuela

�9 Talwan �9 G reece Mexico�9 �9

Kuwai t �9

�9

Philippines �9 � 9 �9 UAR = N i c a r a g u a

Congo �9 �9 Kenya �9 I ran

�9

B o h v l a �9 �9

=Iraq

=India

�9

�9 Nigerpa �9 Indonesia

� 9

[ [ 60 100

I I i I I t I [ I 300 400 600 800 1(i~30 2000 30(;43 4000

PER CA@ITA GROSS NATIONAL PROOUCr ($1

Fig. 8--Relationship between per capita GNP and per capita consumption of pulp and paper for various countries. From R. Revele et al., eds., Rapid Population Growth: Consequences and Policy Implications, Vol. II, p. 240, Johns Hopkins Uni- versity Press, Baltimore, Maryland, 1971.

use of fue ls . Accord ing to Love r ing 1~ total consumption of m e t a l s has been r i s i ng at 6 pct a y e a r , al though pe r capi ta consumpt ion for nonmi l i t a ry purposes has been much m o r e near ly leve l .

It is a l so w e l l to bear in mind that s o m e m a t e r i a l s and inputs a r e used at a much m o r e rapid ly a c c e l e r - ating r a t e with i n c r e a s e d income l e v e l s . An example is p rov ided by paper and pulp p r o d u c t s , shown in Fig . 8. ix This shows about a f i f t y - fo ld i n c r e a s e in pe r capi ta consumpt ion for a ten- fo ld i n c r e a s e in pe r capi ta GNP, a r e l a t i o n a lmos t iden t ica l to that found for e l e c t r i c a l power . Fig . 9 shows p ro j ec t i ons of world consumpt ion of energy to the y e a r 2000, based on m o r e or l e ss c o n t e m p o r a r y r a t e s of i n c r e a s e . World consumption could i n c r e a s e f ive - fo ld f rom 1965 l eve l s , and could r e a c h the a v e r a g e l e v e l a t ta ined in W e s t e r n Europe in 1965. lz F r o m the r e s o u r c e viewpoint this does not look out of the ques t ion , even without nuc l ea r power , but it could not continue much longer .

We mus t ask the ques t ion , then, how can the r e l a - t ively op t im i s t i c p ic tu re p r e s e n t e d by the r e s o u r c e econom is t s be r econc i l ed with the doom and gloom foreshadowed by the eco log i s t s and the m o d e l e r s ? In par t it is a ques t ion of t ime s c a l e . Few economis t s a r e wil l ing to look ahead even as fa r as 2000, which is a ve ry long t i m e ahead in the i r usua l f r a m e w o r k of think- ing. F o r the m o d e l e r s , on the o ther hand, 2000 is p r a c t i c a l l y next week, and the midd le of the twenty- f i r s t cen tury is s t i l l the n e a r fu ture . Indeed, one of the p rob l ems for the economis t s is that the o rgan iza t ion of advanced soc i e t i e s is such as to r e q u i r e continued growth of pe r capi ta GNP in o r d e r to p rov ide employment for the labor fo rce . It i s a l s o be l i eved to be n e c e s s a r y fo r po l i t i ca l s tab i l i ty , s ince growth and the p r o m i s e it o f f e r s to the p o o r e r s e g m e n t s of soc ie ty and the p o o r e r nations of the wor ld is n e c e s s a r y with p r e sen t inequa l i t i e s of weal th and produc t iv i ty .

The growth of indus t r ia l s o c i e t i e s based on na tu ra l r e s o u r c e s i s an evolu t ionary p r o c e s s which is i r r e v e r - s ib le . Throughout human h i s to ry t h e r e have been r e c u r r e n t epochs of loca l ized af f luence and concomitant po l i t i ca l power l a rge ly gene ra t ed by loca l concen t r a - t ions of m i n e r a l r e s o u r c e s which eventual ly ran out. To some extent modern t r anspo r t a t i on and communi -

Projectmns of Energy Consumption m 2000 Compared with 1938 and 1965 Actual

(bdhons o f metrw tons o f coal equtvalen U

Energy Consumptmn tn Year 2000 if

Trend m World Con- Wortd Con- C o n s u m p l l o n s u m p t l o n Is s u m p t l o n I s

from 1955 at U S 1965 at West Europe 1938 1965 to 1965 per Capita 1965 per

Actual Actual Continues Level Capita Level

(1) (2) (3)

Wortd i 79 5 5 40 5 67 6 23 7 Northern

America 71 2 04 6 45 3.64 1 27 Latm America 039 20 2 01 6 63 2 32 Western Europe 56 1 09 3 84 3.77 1 32 East Europe

a n d U S S R 30 ] 23 1098 551 1.93 Commumst Asia 027 32 6 42 13 5 4 74 N o n c o m m u n l s t

Asia 112 39 9 94 26 1 9.14 Africa 023 093 55 8 36 2 92 Oceama 018 061 33 34 12

Sources Specml tabulations of world energy use done at Resources for the Future, lnc (~r D C ) from Umted Nations and other data sources.

F i g . 9 - - P r o j e c t i o n s o f e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n ,

7 6 4 - V O L U M E 3 , A P R I L 1 9 7 2 M E T A L L U R G I C A L T R A N S A C T I O N S

cat ions have repea led this phenomenon. The indus- t r i a l i za t ion of W e s t e r n Europe in the seven teen th and eighteenth cen tu r i e s r e s t ed on indigenous r e s o u r c e s of meta l s and of coal . The meta l s have now la rge ly run out and a re impor ted . European co lon ia l i sm of the la te n ine teenth cen tury was the r e sponse to this deple- t ion, the best po l i t i ca l m e a n s then ava i lab le for a s s u r - ing the supply of r e s o u r c e s . F r o m 1700 to 1859 Br i t a i n mined 50 pct of the wor ld ' s lead; f rom 1820 to

13 1840 it produced 45 pct of the wor ld ' s copper . Most minable deposi ts of meta l s a re the r e s u l t of a

geological accident that caused local concen t ra t ion in o res many o r d e r s of magni tude g rea t e r than the ave rage concen t ra t ion of the cor responding e lement in the ea r t h ' s c rus t . This is the usual s i tua t ion with what Lover ing t e r m s the " m e t a l v i t a m i n s , " e l emen t s used for al loying to impa r t spec ia l p rope r t i e s to the abundant e lements such as i ron and a l u m i n u m . Exa m- ples a r e Hg, W, Ta , Ag, Sn, Mn, and Mo. Fo r these me ta l s there is not a cont inuous d i s t r ibu t ion of lower concen t ra t ion ores rang ing down to the ave rage t e r r - e s t r i a l abundance. They cannot continue to be won by constant ly but gradual ly i nc reas ing expendi tures of energy and effort . In con t ras t a re the " b r e a d and b u t t e r " me t a l s , a l u m i n u m and i ron , and poss ib ly t i t an ium, for which the concen t ra t ions in p r e se n t l y worked ores a re only two to four t imes the i r concen- t r a t ions in common rocks . In these cases it s e e m s c lea r that technical p r o g r e s s will always be able to keep pace with s ca rc i t y . Also u ran ium and t ho r ium, the potent ial sources of nuc lea r energy, a r e in somewhat the s ame ca tegory , in that ava i lab i l i ty i n c r e a s e s rapid ly and cont inuously as the concen t ra t ion of work- able o res decreases.~ Thus , if b r eede r r e a c t o r s a r e feas ib le , u r an ium and thor ium a s s u r e m a n ' s energy supply fo r the indef ini te future . Other e l emen t s such as Cu, Co, Ni, V, Sn, and Pb have a less c e r t a i n future . Ores of p resen t or c lose to p resen t concen t ra t ion wil l run out before the end of the century un les s new ore bodies a re d i scovered . Ores also exist in widely va r y - ing concen t ra t ions , but probably not with a cont inuous gradat ion down to the ave rage abundance, or c l a rke . In the case of copper dec l in ing ore concen t ra t ions have recen t ly not been fully compensa ted for by improved technology. The product of pr ice and ore grade gives a m e a s u r e of the value of me ta l in 100 lbs of o re that jus t pays the cost of r e cove ry . If this product r e m a i n s constant over t ime , it means that improved technology is jus t keeping up with deplet ion. For copper this happened between 1920 and World War II, but dur ing the las t decade or so it is showing signs of r i s i ng .

I have r e f e r r e d a l r eady to the impor tance of con- t inuing technica l p r o g r e s s in the ma in tenance of m a t e r - ia l suppl ies . This p r o g r e s s takes place in th ree a r e a s : 1) the location of o re bodies and the ex t rac t ion of me ta l s f rom them, 2) the development of subs t i tu te m a t e r i a l s , and of m o r e economica l ways of us ing m a t e r i a l s , and 3) development of new technologies for r ecyc l ing m a t e r i a l s . A fundamenta l ques t ion which mus t be asked is whether the n o r m a l economic incen- t ives gene~:ated by the m a r k e t will continue to provide suff icient motivat ion for the n e c e s s a r y technica l p ro - g r e s s within indus t ry i t se l f , taking into account the lead t ime of between ten and fifteen yea r s r e q u i r e d to go f rom concept or d i scovery to l a r g e - s c a l e c o m m e r - c ia l appl icat ion of any technological development or

M E T A L L U R G I C A L T R A N S A C T I O N S

na t u r a l r e s o u r c e . This lead t ime applies whether one is ta lk ing about subst i tu te m a t e r i a l s or p r o c e s s e s , about f inding and developing new ore bodies , or about developing a new ext rac t ion p r oc e s s for a lower grade of o re . The evidence I have a l r eady p resen ted suggests that on the whole the s igna ls of the marke tp l ace have been genera ted suff ic ient ly far in advance to elici t the n e c e s s a r y geological explora t ion or R and D except in t i me s of war or major pol i t ica l and socia l upheaval . The re a r e three poss ib le r e a s o n s why this re la t ive ly favorab le s i tua t ion may not cont inue into the future:

1) Publ ic a t t i tudes towards technology and expecta- t ions r ega rd ing the p r e s e r v a t i o n of the env i ronment a re beginning to evolve much m o r e rapidly than the n o r m a l t ime cycle of the development p roces s i tself . Thus indus t ry has much less a s s u r a n c e than in the past that the soc ia l and pol i t ica l ground ru l e s under which an innovat ive p roces s began wil l r e m a i n the s ame when the innovation comes to economica l ly p ro - fi table f ru i t ion . Hence the p r oc e s s of innovat ion p ro - ceeds in a less and less p red ic tab le env i ronmen t , with a consequent i nc r ea se in the economic r i sk s in - volved. F u r t h e r m o r e , sc ient i f ic knowledge about po- ten t ia l env i ronmen ta l hazards is i nc r ea s ing rapidly and r ece ive s wider and m o r e rap id d i s semina t ion than in the pas t , adding the i s sue of t echnica l uncer ta in ty to that of soc ia l uncer ta in ty . However , this factor is somewhat offset by the fact that technology is less e m p i r i c a l and m o r e s c i e n c e - b a s e d , with the r e su l t that haza rds can be m o r e r ead i ly ant ic ipated and p ro - vided for , at leas t in p r inc ip le .

2) As we approach sa tu ra t ion in the use of r e s o u r c e s and the ra t e of r e s o u r c e consumpt ion i n c r e a s e s in r e - lat ion to known r e s e r v e s , shor tage s i tua t ions may follow on each other m o r e and m o r e c lose ly for different m a t e r i a l s , and there may be m o r e syne rg i s t i c i n t e r - act ions between the supply and demand of different m a t e r i a l s . Ma te r i a l s supply thus becomes a m u l t i c o m - ponent sy s t e ms problem ra the r than a s ingle component one which can be at tacked in i so la t ion . F u r t h e r m o r e , we know there will be in t e rac t ions between m a t e r i a l s r e q u i r e m e n t s and env i ronmen ta l pollut ion s t andards . We have a l ready seen examples of this in the d i s rup - tion of the oi l and coal ma r ke t s genera ted by low sulfur fuel r e q u i r e m e n t s for e l e c t r i c a l genera t ing p lants . When one component of a complex sys tem o v e r - loads, it is r e la t ive ly easy to i so la te and bypass , but when many pieces a re over loading a lmos t s imu l t an - eously, the p roces s of r e p a i r becomes more complex and r e q u i r e s a higher level of coordinat ion than is typical ly e l ic i ted by the economic incent ives act ing on a s ingle f i r m . Thus the s i tua t ion may also r equ i r e m o r e and m o r e technological effort and a higher level of i nves tmen t per unit of product ion , as well as g rea t e r lead t ime and comprehens ive planning.

3) The developed count r ies a re i nc reas ing ly dependent on the underdeveloped world for the i r sources of supply of raw m a t e r i a l s . The pol i t ica l ins tab i l i ty of the underdeveloped world, combined with the r i s i ng wave of p ro t ec t i on i sm in developed coun t r i e s , t h r ea t ens the world t rading and inves tment sys t em which Lands- berg emphas ized as so n e c e s s a r y to the U.S. raw m a t e r i a l supply. The U.S. now impor t s nea r ly 15 pet of i ts total raw m a t e r i a l r e q u i r e m e n t s , and in some cases is wholly dependent on o ther coun t r i e s . In f a i r - n e s s , of c ou r se , it must be said that some of this im-

VOLUME 3, APRIL 1972-765

por ta t ion is the r e su l t of s m a l l p r ice d i f fe ren t ia l s r e l a t ive to domest ic r e s e r v e s ; but even in this case , lead t ime is r equ i red to reopen or expand exis t ing sou rce s of supply when old ones a re cut off.

The supplying nat ions a r e beginning to apprec ia t e the advantages to them of co l lus ion in r a i s i ng raw m a t e r i a l p r i ces . In addi t ion, as they develop, they wil l be less dependent on foreign technology and ex- pe r t s and so will be in a be t t e r barga in ing posi t ion . In addit ion they a re beginning to talk of the de s i r ab i l i t y of r e t a in ing the i r raw m a t e r i a l r e s e r v e s for the i r own fu ture economic development . To the extent that these developments occur g radua l ly they may be benef ic ia l to both the underdeveloped and the developed coun t r i e s . They wil l benefit the underdeveloped coun t r i e s through providing more fore ign exchange for development , and they wil l force the developed count r ies to a c c e l e r a t e the i r own development of subs t i tu te m a t e r i a l s , r e c y c l - ing technology, and m a t e r i a l s - c o n s e r v i n g i n d u s t r i a l and consumpt ion p r a c t i c e s gene ra l ly . Subst i tu t ion wi l l provide a na tu ra l l imi t on the degree to which the r e - source count r ies can apply p r ice p r e s s u r e , at l eas t in mos t ins tances . Thus the growing pol i t ica l power of the r e s o u r c e coun t r i e s , and their growing sophis t i - ca t ion about the use of the i r cont ro l of r e s o u r c e s to the i r own economic and development advantage, could prove to be a b l e s s ing in d i sgu ise , providing a source of development capi ta l which is e a s i e r pol i t ica l ly than fo re ign aid or i nves tmen t , and nudging the r e s t of the wor ld into a m a t e r i a l s conse rva t ion policy e a r l i e r than o therwise .

On the other hand, technology is not able to compensa te for sudden pol i t ica l developments which a r e not fo r e seen . Even deve lopments which a re p robab le but not ce r t a in do not re f lec t t hemse lves in the m a r k e t suff ic ient ly to s t imula te r e s e a r c h to counter the i r effects . The his tory of the U.S. synthetic r u b b e r p ro - g r a m in World War II p rov ides a good i l l u s t r a t i o n of this point; the na t i on ' s t r a n s p o r t sys t em was n e a r l y brought to a halt by the sudden cut-off of suppl ies of n a t u r a l r ubbe r , and yet p r i o r to this sudden but r e l a - t ive ly fo reseeab le t u r n of events , no rma l economic incen t ives provided l i t t le impetus for the development of synthet ic rubber technology, and the pace of such development in the U.S. was l e i su r e ly , and such as there was tended to re ly on gove rnmen t , whose ac t ions were in t u rn cha rac t e r i zed by " b u s i n e s s - a s - u s u a l " b u r e a u - c ra t i c in-f ight ing. 14

I have a l ready r e f e r r e d to the very s t rong po l i t i ca l and soc ia l p r e s s u r e s which s t i l l exist in c o n t e m p o r a r y soc ie t i es for economic growth and the consequent in - c r e a s e d per capita consumpt ion of m a t e r i a l s and ene rgy . To some extent the values of growth and of conse rva t ion ( including env i ronmen ta l protect ion) a r e held by different soc ia l groups and r e p r e s e n t con- f l ic t ing pe r spec t ives . This is not only a ques t ion of fulf i l l ing or offering the p r o m i s e of fu l f i l lment of the a sp i r a t i ons of the poore r segments of the w o r l d ' s pop- u la t ion . It is also a ques t ion of the full employment of r e s o u r c e s and p a r t i c u l a r l y of people, accompanied by r i s i n g product ivi ty and the constant ly i n c r e a s i n g s ize of the labor force both due to i nc rea sed populat ion and due to i nc rea sed par t i c ipa t ion of women and m i n o r i t i e s in the labor force . Even with recent t r ends towards reduced m a n - h o u r s per yea r , nea r ly a 4 pct annua l in - crease in GNP in the U.S. is required to maintain full

employment , and in other coun t r i e s having much l a r g e r ineff ic ient s e c t o r s of the economy, such as ag r i cu l tu r e and s i n g l e - f a m i l y re ta i l e s t a b l i s h m e n t s , the r e q u i r e - ments for economic growth a r e cor respond ing ly l a rge r . None of the advocates of " z e r o g rowth" have offered a convincing solut ion to the confl ict ing goals of full employment and reduced ecological s t r e s s , and no modern society offers a p laus ib le model which reconc i l es these goals . F o r the mos t par t product iv i ty is r ega rded as a "good th ing . " The c u r r e n t i n t e rna t iona l mone ta ry c r i s i s was r ead i ly fo reseeab le f i f teen y e a r s ago s imply by ext rapola t ing the d i f fe rent ia l r a t e s of product ivi ty growth in the U.S. and our p r inc ipa l compet i to r s . F r o m 1870 to 1950 product ivi ty in the U.S. i nc r e a sed at near ly twice the ra te of Europe and Japan . F r o m 1950 to 1965 both Europe and Japan acce l e r a t ed re l a t ive to the U.S., and dur ing the four y e a r s f rom 1965 to 1969 product iv i ty in Europe i n c r e a s e d at 2.5 t imes the ra te in the U.S., and in Japan it i n c r e a s e d at over s ix t imes the r a t e . 1S It is no wonder that product iv i ty has become v i r tua l ly a re l ig ion among those concerned with the heal th of the A m e r i c a n economy and the long- t e r m s tab i l i ty of the in t e rna t iona l t rad ing sys tem. But this pe rcep t ion may be on a co l l i s ion course with the i n c r e a s i n g public concern with noneconomic factors in product ion . The fas te r we i n c r e a s e our product ivi ty the more rap id ly we will have to i n c r e a s e our GNP, and our consumpt ion of m a t e r i a l s and energy , to keep our labor force fully employed.

The product iv i ty lag in the U.S. is cons idered as an unadul te ra ted "bad th ing , " and we a r e exerc i s ing a l l so r t s of po l i t i ca l m e a s u r e s to ove rcome it. Yet on a worldwide ba s i s this s imply a c c e l e r a t e s compet i t ive p r e s s u r e s for growth and i ts s ide effects , b r ing ing the day of eventual sa tu ra t ion that much c lose r . We have launched an economic engine which is running in the wrong d i r ec t ion f rom the s tandpoint of p r e s e r v i n g options for fu ture genera t ions . The more we s t r ive compet i t ive ly to build up product iv i ty to ma in ta in our economic pos i t ion in the world, the m o r e complex and difficult we make the eventual t r a n s i t i o n to something approaching a steady state world some t ime ea r ly in the twen ty - f i r s t century . The economic growth race seems to have some of the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the i n t e r - na t ional a r m s race . Each advance appears to enhance our own secu r i t y while ac tual ly dec rea s ing the secur i ty of everybody. There appears to be a ma jo r d i scon- t inui ty between c u r r e n t t r ends and na t iona l objec t ives , in v i r tua l ly a l l nat ional economies , and the u l t imate need to a t ta in some sor t of equ i l i b r ium with our env i ronmen t . It is not obvious that the var ious homeo- stat ic m e c h a n i s m s of the world economy wil l opera te to set in mot ion automat ica l ly the forces which wil l propel us towards a new equ i l ib r ium.

The d iscont inu i ty between c u r r e n t t r ends and goals and u l t ima te neces s i t i e s is very hard to think about in a logical ly cons i s t en t way. The apocalypt ic rhe to r i c of the ecologica l ideologues is not very helpful because they do not te l l us how to get the re f rom here , or even how to begin . They r e c o m m e n d a r ad i ca l change in va lues , a "new e th ic , " but offer l i t t le advice on how to deal with the secondary consequences of the pol ic ies they advocate . Are we to de l ibe ra t e ly go back to a society of lower product ivi ty in o r de r to keep people useful ly and reward ing ly employed at lower levels of m a t e r i a l and energy consumpt ion? One sees few


specific models of the kind of world that might ac tual ly be viable in 2020--models which take into account al l the complex in t e rac t ions between employment , pol lu- t ion, resource consumption, life styles, population, income distribution, urbanization, and the flow of international trade. There are plenty of studies of each one of these areas, but little knowledge of how they interact with each other, or how goals in one domain may frustrate goals in another. Of course, the twenty- first century seems a long way off in relation to current rates of change of the various parameters which de- scribe social and economic structures. And yet in the long span of human history it is extraordinarily close, as close in the future as World War I is in the past.

This paper has raised more questions than it answers. In fact many of the answers will have to come from those who are in day-to-day contact with the markets, technologies, and industrial processes which constitute our economy. Even though the materials in- put to goods is declining relatively, it is still rising absolutely, and this trend is not likely to change a- bruptly. The materials industries, ranging from ex- traction and refining to fabrication and design, will be a key factor in the wise use of our nonrenewable resources. Although the supply of materials may not prove to be the most limiting factor in growth, it is nevertheless important. In the present structure of our economy the economic incentives for the substi- tution or redesign of the materials factor in goods a r e l ikely to be m o r e effective than they a r e with r e - spect to env i ronmen ta l pol lut ion or b roader soc ia l effects. For raw m a t e r i a l s costs a re m o r e r ead i ly r e - f lected in the p r i ce of goods, although not a lways in r e l a t ion to future suppl ies . Even in the field of m a t e r - i a l s , however , the m a r k e t is s t rongly modif ied by pol i t ica l ac t ions . One example is the deple t ion a l lowance in c}~rporation taxes . This p r e s e n t s an i n t e r e s t i ng d i l emma . As an encouragemen t to explora t ion for new r e s e r v e s it has an economic jus t i f ica t ion . But it a lso has the effect of lower ing the cost of v i rg in m a t e r i a l s r e l a t ive to recyc led m a t e r i a l s , and thus d i s cou rages the development of r ecyc l ing and r ecove ry technologies or product des igns which a re conducive to the r ecove ry of m a t e r i a l s a f ter d i sca rd . The s a m e policy a lso lowers the cost of energy , more of which is us - ual ly used in the o r ig ina l winning of met a ls f rom ores than in r ecove ry f rom sc rap . Thus the deple t ion al lowance appears to encourage wasteful use of both m a t e r i a l s and fuels , even though it a lso encourages the development of r e s e r v e s . This is unfor tunate both f rom the standpoint of m a t e r i a l s conse rva t ion and f rom the standpoint of e n v i r o n m e n t a l s t r e s s , s ince u n r e - covered m a t e r i a l s add to pollut ion. Could we devise taxat ion methods that would provide g r e a t e r r e w a r d s for the r ecyc l ing of m a t e r i a l s while not d i scourag ing explora t ion for r e s e r v e s ?

Most g o v e r n m e n t - s u p p o r t e d work in the r e s o u r c e s f ield is a imed at economic benefit for the p roduce r - - developing new m a r k e t s for specific m a t e r i a l s , m o r e efficient p r o c e s s e s . Although there is some s tock- pi l ing of c r i t i c a l m a t e r i a l s through gove rnmen t p u r - chase , this has a s t r a t eg i c r a the r than a conse rva t i on or ien ta t ion . The ques t ion is whether gove rnmen t r e s e a r c h and development in the raw m a t e r i a l s f ield should not be much m o r e focused on p ro jec t s r e l a t ed

to conse rva t ion of r e s o u r c e s or protec t ion of the en- v i r onme n t in r e s o u r c e ex t rac t ion and re jec t ion . T h e r e a re few incent ives for i ndus t r i a l r e s e a r c h in this a r e a .

Both governmen t and indus t ry mus t l ea rn how to take a much l o n g e r - r a n g e view or sys tems approach to the flow of m a t e r i a l s in the world economy. The re is a need for the development of a sor t of ecological model of man and m a t e r i a l s , suff ic ient ly quant i ta t ive and p r e c i s e so that it becomes poss ib le to make s i m u - lat ion s tud ies of the dynamic r e s p o n s e of the m a t e r i a l s sys t em to var ious pe r tu rba t ions of supply, demand, and p r ice . Th i s model ing becomes i nc r ea s ing ly impor tan t as the in t e rac t ions between di f ferent m a t e r i a l s and e n v i r o n m e n t a l sys t ems i n c r e a s e s , as it is bound to do, so that t r ad i t iona l intui t ion and exper ience a r e no longer adequate guides to the p red ic t ion of such effects .

On a worldwide bas i s we a lso need to have much m o r e geochemica l and geophys ica l r e s e a r c h a imed at defining and a s s e s s i n g the future ava i lab i l i ty of m e t a l - lic o r e s , espec ia l ly the locat ion of a r e a s where ore bodies a re l ikely to exist which a r e not access ib le to c u r r e n t p rospec t ing techniques , but whose exis tence might be i n f e r r ed from ind i rec t evidence or geological theory. This sor t of work is to be d is t inguished f rom sc ient i f ic prospec t ing as such, which is be t t e r left to agenc ies or f i rms which benefi t in a d i rec t economic way f rom such ac t iv i t i es . On an in t e rna t iona l bas i s we need to coopera te with other na t ions or work through in t e rna t iona l agencies to develop constant ly improved and updated inven tor ies of potent ia l r e s o u r c e s a c c e s s - ible to a l l .

We a lso need to s tar t e s t ab l i sh ing the knowledge base for much m o r e economica l use of m a t e r i a l s . This r ea l ly covers the whole gamut of m a t e r i a l s eng inee r - ing. F o r example , be t te r cont ro l and cha rac t e r i za t i on of m a t e r i a l p rope r t i e s can often make poss ib le less conse rva t ive " sa fe ty f a c t o r s , " which a re usua l ly in fact ignorance or uncer ta in ty fac to rs . Resea rch should be d i r ec t ed not only at subs t i tu t ion of more ava i lab le for potent ia l ly s c a r c e r m a t e r i a l s , but also at the sub- s t i tu t ion of whole technologies which a r e less ma t e - r i a l s - i n t e n s i v e . A good example is the subs t i tu t ion of more sophis t ica ted communica t ions for pe r sona l t r ave l as a mode of in format ion t r a n s f e r .

P e r ha ps indus t ry i t se l f , or the m a t e r i a l s p ro fe s s - ional soc i e t i e s , should take more in i t ia t ive in propos- ing to gove rnmen t a l t e red tax incen t ives or other gove rnmen ta l pol ic ies which would enable whole indus- t r i e s to adopt m a t e r i a l s - c o n s e r v i n g p rac t i ces and techniques which a s ingle f i r m could not afford for compet i t ive r e a s o n s , un less a l l i ts compet i to rs were forced to adopt equivalent p r a c t i c e s . Indeed this might be done e i ther by voluntary cooperat ion ( running some r i sk of an t i t r u s t violation) or by government regula t ion under taken on indus t ry in i t i a t ive . Such r e q u i r e m e n t s a re l ikely to be imposed by pol i t ica l in te rvent ion u l t i m - ately; it may be advantageous for indus t ry to se ize the in i t ia t ive by carefu l ly thought-out p roposa ls made be - fore the i s sues have reached high pol i t ica l v is ib i l i ty . Po l i t i ca l ac t ions taken in a c r i s i s a tmosphe re (usually the only a tmosphe re in which ve ry effective act ion can be taken) is c e r t a i n to be far m o r e cost ly to indus t ry in the long run than more carefu l ly designed and r a t iona l act ion taken well in advance of a c r i s i s under the guidance of the people in indus t ry and the p r o f e s s -


i o n s who a r e m o s t i n t i m a t e l y a c q u a i n t e d w i t h the p r o - b l e m s i nvo lved . T h e c u r r e n t e n e r g y c r i s i s , o r t he d r a c o n i a n l aws in r e g a r d to au to e m i s s i o n s , a r e e x a m - p l e s of the s o r t of p o l i t i c a l a c t i o n w h i c h u s u a l l y o c c u r s w h e n i n d u s t r y i t s e l f i s u n a b l e to c o l l a b o r a t e on m o r e c o n s t r u c t i v e p o l i c i e s . Of c o u r s e , the c o n s e r v a t i o n of m a t e r i a l s is only one f a c e t of t h i s p r o b l e m , but i t d o e s r e p r e s e n t a r e a l c h a l l e n g e to the m a t e r i a l s p r o f e s s i o n , one w h i c h , p r o p e r l y p r e s e n t e d , could s e r v e to b r i n g m o r e b r i g h t young p e o p l e and new i d e a s in to t he p r o - f e s s i o n . The p r o b l e m s , h o w e v e r , a r e not t h o s e of t e c h - no logy a lone , but r e q u i r e a b r o a d e r p e r s p e c t i v e w h i c h e m b r a c e s m a t e r i a l s e n g i n e e r i n g , the g e o l o g i c a l s c i e n c e s , m a c r o e c o n o m i c t h e o r y , and e v e n the s o c i o l - ogy of w o r k .

E v e n the t w e n t y - f i r s t c e n t u r y is too f a r away f r o m us to p e r m i t s p e c u l a t i o n in any de t a i l on t h e p o s s i b l e r o l e of m a t e r i a l s in a r e s t r u c t u r e d w o r l d e c o n o m y . But I doubt tha t we c a n s i m p l y s i t back and le t n a t u r e and the e c o n o m i c f o r c e s of the p r i v a t e m a r k e t w o r k t h e m s e l v e s out . A l l t h o s e e n g a g e d in the e x t r a c t i o n , p r o c e s s i n g , and u s e of m a t e r i a l s m u s t be c o n s t a n t l y s t r a i n i n g to look in to t he f u t u r e a s b e s t t hey c a n , u s i n g the w i s d o m and i n t e l l e c t u a l t oo l s tha t can be m u s t e r e d f r o m w h a t e v e r d i s c i p l i n e s t u r n out to have s o m e t h i n g to o f f e r . T h i s is the n a t u r e of the c h a l l e n g e of m a t e r - i a l s and s o c i e t y .

R E F E R E N C E S

1. H. Brooks et al : Science, Growth and Society: A New Perspective, p. 21, OECD, Paris, 1971.

2. President's Science Advisory Committee: The World Food Problem, Report of the Panel on the World Food Supply, U.S.G.P.O., May 1967.

3. Lester R. Brown: Foreign Affairs, New York, July 1958, vol. 45, no. 4, pp. 688-98; C. R. Wharton, Jr.. Foretgn Affairs, April 1969, vol. 47, no. 3, pp. 454-75.

4. Jay W. Forrester: World Dynamics, Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge, 1971. 5. P. M. Hauser, ed.: The Population Dilemma, p. 99 (Chart 3), Prentice Hall Inc.,

Englewood Cliffs, N. J., 1963. 6. H. Landsberg: Natural Resources for U. S. Growth, Johns Hopkins Press, Balti-

more, 1964. 7. Anne P. Carter: Structural Change in the American Economy, p. 38, Harvard

University Press, 1970. 8. P. M. Hauser, ed.: The Population Dilemma, p. 98, Prentice Hall Inc., Engle-

wood Cliffs, N. J., 1963. 9. P. M. Hauser, ed.: The Population Dilemma, p. 97, Prentme Hall Inc., Engle-

wood Cliffs, N. J., 1963. 10. P. M. Cloud, ed.: Resources andMan, pp. 109-34, W. H. Freeman, San Francisco,

1970. 11. R. Revelle et al., ed.: Rapid Population Growth: Consequences and Pohcy Im-

plications, vol. II, p. 240, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1971. 12. P. M. Hauser, ed.: The Population Dilemma, p. 112, Prentice Hall Inc., Engle-

wood Cliffs, N. J., 1963. 13. P. M. Cloud, ed.: Resources and Man, p. 121, W. H. Freeman, San Francisco,

1970. 14. J. B. Conant: My Several Lives, Memoirs of a Social Inventor, cf. Chapter 23,

pp. 305-28, Harper and Row, New York, 15. House Science and Astronautics Committee: Science, Technology and the

Economy, Hearings in the 92nd Congress July 27-29, 1971, U.S.G.P.O., 1971, esp. testimony of Secretary Stans.


Materials in a steady state world

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