Material Requirements of Energy...

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Material Requirements of Energy Technologies

June 27, 2012NAS, Washington DC

René Kleijn

Department of Industrial Ecology

Institute of Environmental Sciences


Inventory of material requirements based on current technologies


Current fossil fuel based system

• Fossil Fuels

• Uranium

• Steel: ships, pipelines, mining equipment, power plants refineries, exploration etc.

• Copper: grid, generators, electro motors,

• Aluminum : grid


Annual global material useexcluding water (4500 Gton), oxygen (~40 Gton) and sand/gravel (5-10 Gton)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

fossil fuels food wood metals

Gto

n


What would be the impact of a transition to a low-carbon energy system ?


1Fossil fuel based low-carbon energy system


Low-carbon fossil fuel based system:additional infrastructure & efficiency

• Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS): – Capture installation, pipelines, injection well, (decreased

efficiency = extra capacity): stainless or specialty steel (30-60% extra steel / kWh)

• Highly efficient turbines (jet engines, power plants)– Rhenium for special temperature resistant alloys

– REE as alloy in temperature resistant steel

• Lightweight Mg REE alloys for car engines

• Rare Earth Elements as phosphors in LED and fluorescent lighting (Y, Ce, La, Eu, Tb, Gd, ..)


2Renewables based low-carbon energy system


Switch to renewables means:• Switch of energy carrier

– From fossils to electricity / hydrogen / …

• Increased distance between electricity production and use

– PV in deserts, off shore wind

• Intermittency -> buffering needed– More interconnectivity between grid

– More redundancy in electricity production

– Smart grids


Creates a need for:

• Long distance transmission netwerk for 100-1000 EJ

• High Tech (smart) grid

• Electricity or hydrogen based mobility


Renewable based system(collection)

• (direct drive) wind turbines

– REE: magnets in generator

– Copper: generator

– Steel: tower

• PV solar cells

– Silver: silicon based cells

– CdTe: Cd, Te ; CIGS: In, Ga ; others (Ge, Ru) in thin film cells

• energy crops

– Steel: agricultural machines, and for the production of inputs like fertilizers


Renewable based system(transmission / buffering)

• power lines

– short distance (<500 km) overhead AC: aluminum (steel for towers)

– long distance (>500 km) HVDC: copper

• H2 pipelines

– specialty steel (embrittlement resistant)

• electrolyzers (PEM)

– platinum for catalysts


Renewable based system(end-use)

• cars (and other transport)

– REE in magnets for electric motors

– copper for electric motors

– lithium, cobalt, nickel, lanthanum for batteries

– platinum for PEM fuel cells


Quantification:

how do these material requirements compare to current production and reserves ?


Metals in renewable energy technologies

• Copper in High Voltage DC power lines – 1200 MW bipolar cable

– 28 kg / m

– 28 ton per km

– 3000 km > 80,000 ton Cu for one (powerplant size) cable

– we need thousands of these cables for a worldwide supergrid

– could add up to a quarter of the known copper resource

– ...and we need 50 million ton Cu for wind turbines (4x annual production) and more for hybrid and full electric vehicles

• Steel in wind turbines– 140 ton/MWe

– for 15% of world energy in 2050 ,3 billion ton steel is needed

– about three times current annual production


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

[g /

kW

h]

NGCC NGCC+ PC PC+

Steel intensity of electricity generation

chromium steel

low alloyed steel

reinforcing steel

+30%

+60%

gas +CCS kolen +CCS


g metal/kWh compared to current mix

UAg

MoSn

ZnCu

AlNi

Fe

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000


Material requirement energy scenarios compared to total annual mine production


Special metals in sustainable energy technologies

• Wind Turbines– one large power plant (1GW) = 1250 - 2500 turbines (2MW)

– 300 kg neodymium (Nd) per 2 MW turbine

– 325 – 750 ton Nd for one power plant

– current annual production 16000 ton (20-50 plants / a)

• Cars (50-60 million/a , double in 2050)

– 0.5 kg neodymium per hybrid ( 34 million cars / a)

– 0.5-1 kg lanthanum per hybrid ( 25-50 million cars/a)

– 90 g dysprosium per hybrid (550,000 cars /a)

– 7 kg lithium per electric car (2,6 million cars /a)

– 10 kg cobalt per electric car (6 million cars/a)


thin-film PV: 2050, 80% PV

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

Cd Te Se Ga In Ge Ru

reserves

production


THE SUPPLY OF MATERIALS


Doubling urban population

Source: UN World urbanisation prospects 2009


Climbing the materials ladder

Source: Rio Tinto & Global Insight, 2008


Primary production iron-ore

kg/cap

g/$

ton

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Iro

n-o

re m

ine

pro

du

cti

on

(k

g/c

ap

) o

r (g

/re

al$

)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Iro

n-o

re m

ine

pro

du

cti

on

(M

illio

n t

on

)

pre-war / war (0.2%)

great depression

buildup OECD (6.3%)

WWII

oil crisis

dematerialisation

OECD (0.6%)

buildup China (9.7%)

1920 depression

financial crisis


Primary production copper

kg/cap

g/$

ton

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Co

pp

er

min

e p

rod

uc

tio

n (

kg

/ca

p)

or

(g/r

ea

l$)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Co

pp

er

min

e p

rod

uc

tio

n (

Millio

n t

on

)

pre-war / war (2.1%)

great depression

buildup OECD (4.7%)

WWII

oil crisis

dematerialisation OECD (2.8 %)

computer age (3.4%)

1920 depression

financial crisis


Ratio extraction 2000s/1970s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Hg

Pb

Ge

Cd

Sn

Mn P K W

population

Zn

Fe

Mo Ni

Ag

Cu

Sb

Va

Co Zr

Cr Al

GDP

PGM Li

Nb

REE Sr

Ga

Re In

Rati

o e

xtr

acti

on

(2000s/1

970

s)

Ceramics, Glass & Batteries

High-Strenght Low-Alloy Steel

Turbine Engines

Displays

Batteries Magnets & Phosphors

Exhaust Catalysts

Electronics & PV

Specialty Alloys


The future:The supply of materials :

• globalization is a one-off gain

• limits to the scale-up of mining projects– smaller deposits

– deeper deposits

– back to underground mines ?

– high-tech mining ?

• efficiency refining is closing physical limits


Two possibilities solutions• innovation / engineering

– technologies based an abundant materials� Molycorp / Boulder Wind: Dy free wind turbines

� Enercon: REE-free direct drive wind turbine

� Toyota et al: PM free induction electric motor

� FeS2 thin film solar cell

� Ni based catalysts fro PEM fuel cells

� Aluminum for HVDC power lines

� Concrete for wind turbine towers

• dematerialization / engineering

– reduce energy (and material) demand

� efficiency improvement

� low growth/ stable/ de-growth economies

� Closing the material loop: recycling, urban mining


Current studies on future metals scarcity do not include a full energy transition

• Based on extrapolations of current trends or optimistic scenarios for market penetration of low-carbon energy

• These trends don’t even come close to solving climate change

• We need a complete transition to a low-carbon economy in the next few decades

• Material requirements are therefore gravely underestimated (.. or we don’t act...)


Thank you for your attention

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