Master Planned Communities 2020

Master Planned Communities 2020

Thursday,

October 14

3:15 p.m. – 4:30 p.m.

John Martin, Moderator

Randall Lewis

Perry Reader

Melinda Masson

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US Housing Starts and Recessions: Total Housing Units Started To

tal U

nit

s, (

00

0s)

Recession

Source: US Census Bureau Martin & Associates, LLC.

US Involvement In World War II

ULI FALL 2010

RCLCO FORECAST TO 2020

2

Sources: RCLCO; Census; Moody’s Economy.Com

U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY AGE CATEGORY 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)

Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer

To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand

AGE GROUP

2,223,706

6,521,246

3,701,714

-2,268,604

718,786

1,162,381

-257,079

-3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000

75+

65-74

55-64

45-54

35-44

25-34

15-24

Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010 Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University Martin & Associates

Age Group 2010 Change

2010-2020 % Chg.

from 2010

under 25 6,540,049 -257,079 -3.9%

25-34 19,429,803 1,162,381 6.0%

35-44 21,729,364 718,786 3.3%

45-54 24,599,659 -2,268,604 -9.2%

55-64 21,129,717 3,701,714 17.5%

65-74 13,141,901 6,521,246 49.6%

75+ 11,965,405 2,223,706 18.6%

118,535,898 11,802,150 81.9%

U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY AGE CATEGORY 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)




2,223,706

6,521,246

3,701,714

-2,268,604

718,786

1,162,381

-257,079

U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY TYPE 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)



HOUSEHOLD TYPE

71,659

117,416

81,968

249,400

1,456,034

547,106

4,278,764

4,999,803

0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000

Partnered w/ children

Single Parent w/ other

Partnered w/o child.

Single Parent alone

Other

Married w/ children

Single Person

Married w/o children


U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY TYPE 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)

Household Type 2010

Change

2010-

2020

%

Chg.

from

2010

% of

Total

2020

1. Married w/o children 34,441,134 4,999,803 14.5% 30%

2. Single Person 32,384,585 4,278,764 13.2% 28%

3. Married w/ children 25,272,364 547,106 2.2% 20%

4. Other 12,191,372 1,456,034 11.9% 10%

5. Single Parent alone 6,351,725 249,400 3.9% 5%

6. Partnered w/o child. 3,712,225 81,968 2.2% 3%

7. Single Parent w/ other 2,265,438 117,416 5.2% 2%

8. Partnered w/ children 1,917,055 71,659 3.7% 2%

118,535,898 11,802,150 10.0% 100%



71,659

117,416

81,968

249,400

1,456,034

547,106

4,278,764

4,999,803

0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000


U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY RACE/ETHNICITY 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)



2,191,783

1,744,617

4,469,479

3,396,271

0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000

Black

Asian

Hispanic

White


Race/

Ethnicity 2010

Change 2010-2010

% Chg. from 2010

% of Total 2020

% of Chg.

2010-2020

White 83,574,504 3,396,271 4% 67% 29%

Hispanic 13,727,794 4,469,479 33% 14% 38%

Asian/Other

6,768,017 1,744,617 26% 6% 15%

Black 14,465,582 2,191,783 15% 13% 18%

118,535,897 11,802,150 10% 100% 100%



U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY RACE/ETHNICITY 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)

2,191,783

1,744,617

4,469,479

3,396,271

0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000


Projected Household Growth 11,802,000 72%

Projected Net Removal 3,279,000 20%

Projected Total Vacant Unit Demand 1,361,000 8%

Projected Total Demand for New Units 16,442,000 100%

Annual Average 1,644,000

Components of New Home Demand 2010-2020


COMMUNITY CORNERSTONES

Master Planned Communities 2020 Urban Land Institute – Fall 2010 Meeting October 14, 2010

Perry J. Reader President, Community Development

Celebration’s Original Cornerstones

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Jones_Intercable.png

http://www.cs.osceola.k12.fl.us/index.htm


http://www.celebrationhealth.com/services/imaging


Place

Vision A new model for Community

Development Conceived as a small

southeastern town with pre-1940s architecture

Maintain high planning and architectural standards

Create icon buildings within the community

Developers Execution

Use of world renowned architects and planners

Created pattern books Extensive modeling prior to

execution Controls on 3rd party

builders/developers

Place

Today

Reuse of icon buildings

Critical mass continues to be a challenge

Icon buildings still significant

Developer still controls master architecture

Future Trends

On-going re-use of buildings

Change of ownership

Re-branding of old businesses

New business models

Challenges to meet new standards

Structured parking

Technology upgrades

Green Building and sustainable Initiatives

Education

Vision

New educational platform

School building to support new learning strategies

Inspire curriculum changes in public education

Comprehensive K -12 walkable school


Build school upfront as a community amenity

Provided operating resources above local level

Created resource partners from major business for school

Education

Today

Two schools (K-8 and High School)

K-8 true community school

High School regional and traditional

No longer subsidized by 3rd parties

Private educational choices

Life long learning (Stetson University)

Future Trends

Public school community interaction

Ongoing sharing of facilities

Continually striving for achievement

Fund raising

Private educational venues grow


Health

Vision Integrate health care

component into master plan Secure Long-Term

Commitment from Major Stakeholders

Become a world class leader for health care delivery


Made long term deal with local provider

Gave protected rights to mitigate providers risk

Provided architectural design framework

Promoted health care partners as community stakeholders

Health

Today

Hospital continues to expand

Leader in new technology

Provides community fitness and wellness

Home based health care never worked.

Beacon for success of community

Future Trends

Health care stakeholders continue to invest in leading edge solutions

Land plan makes expansion efficient

Source of pride for community

Non-stakeholder Health services complementary, not destructive

Technology

Vision Community features designed by

panel of experts Leverage Industry leaders to be

Stakeholders for execution Give incentives to businesses for

participation

Developers Execution Created Alliance partnerships with

competitive advantage Subsidized initial capital

improvements for public facilities Coordinated technology

implementation and framework Maintained rights to access Owned & operated backbone

infrastructure


Technology

Today

No organized community-wide effort

Local providers sold to national companies

Initial stakeholders no longer visible

Local needs better solved by www. based solutions

Future Trends

Original infrastructure is now unsuitable for future

Technology will grow as any other suburban location

Homes contain technology investment that does not add value

[email protected]

vs.

[email protected]

Community

Vision

Promote a socially interactive community

Leave a legacy

Inspire the civic framework for the future


Served as a catalyst to create community organizations

Provided initial start-up funding for many civic & service groups

Proactively brought residents into community governance roles

Supplied educational resources to support community design and controls.

Guided media & public affairs

Community

Today

Stable and active community governance

Numerous civic and social organizations

Foundation providing on-going legacy

Developer’s on-going controls not viewed as impediment for community’s growth

Community activities and events self funded

No developer influenced media hype

Future Trends

Directed by resident population

Importance of project’s legacy aligned between residents and developer.

Developer still has major interest in non-residential land

Case Study: Cornerstones

Cornerstone Vision Today Future

Celebration, Florida




Master Planned Communities 2020

• Buyer confidence at all-time low

• People are experiencing FUD

• “Home” not defined by ownership

Strongest communities offer

• Intact soft-programming

• Safety

• Networking

• “Low cost” social

environments

Flexible legal documents

• Foreclosures

• Self-help programs

• Grant money

• Green conversion

• Social gatherings

“Hope is not a strategy.”

Tony Trella, President, Meranth Company, Inc.

Readiness Planning

• Lifestyle needs and desires

• Local agencies/planners at the table

• World awareness

• Transition of amenities

Readiness Planning

• Niche markets identified

• Social media influencers

• Are you open after 8:00 p.m.?

• Private financing

Success will be

defined again by

out-of-the-box thinking.

Uniquely designed village

amenities that are connected

with other villages

utilizing technology

Smaller “niche” villages

will meet unique

demographic profile needs,

and urban in lifestyle.

Technology will create connection

• Defines the master community

• Creates a sustainable financial model

Community-based care

will define and drive

• Housing configuration

• Design

• Amenity planning

• Soft-programming

Community Engagement

• Community-based care design

• Flexible governance models

• Sustainable, strong soft-programming

• Supporting financial management model

• New model ensures engagement

Green will be Defined

• Environmental management

• Energy management

• Government directives

• Accredited Professionals (AP)

• Renewable energy certificates

Change comes slowly

….then….

happens quickly!

Master Planned Communities 2020

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