Master Innovation & Development Plan · 2019-07-29 · Consequently, and as detailed further...
Transcript of Master Innovation & Development Plan · 2019-07-29 · Consequently, and as detailed further...
ABSTRACT
The purpose of this study is to provide a third-party evaluation of the unique economic impacts associated with the current development concept envisioned and proposed by Sidewalk Labs for redeveloping underutilized land in Quayside and other sections of Toronto’s eastern waterfront.
Most relevant sections: Vol 1 (Quayside Plan, River District Concept Plan, Economic Development )
TITLE: Sidewalk Toronto Economic Impact Analysis
AUTHOR: urbanMetrics Inc.
Master Innovation & Development PlanTechnical Appendix
© 2019 Sidewalk Labs. The content, documents and materials contained herein are considered Sidewalk Proprietary Information.
SIDEWALK TORONTO Economic Impact Analysis Toronto, Ontario
Prepared for Sidewalk Labs
June 12, 2019
This document is available in alternative formats upon request by contacting:
www.urbanMetrics.ca | 67 Yonge Street, Suite 804, Toronto, ON, M5E 1J8 | 416-351-8585 (1-800-505-8755) | [email protected]
www.urbanMetrics.ca | 67 Yonge Street, Suite 804, Toronto, ON, M5E 1J8 | 416-351-8585 (1-800-505-8755) | [email protected]
Preface
Among other key data inputs, this economic impact analysis relies on development
concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs, which are to be
included in the DRAFT Master Innovation and Development Plan (MIDP) being
submitted to Waterfront Toronto. All of these concepts and proposals were developed
in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and are subject to approval by many of
those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Consequently, and as detailed further herein, the real estate development programs outlined in this
report are preliminary and conceptual only. They are intended for reference and illustrative purposes,
providing a general indication as to the possible extent of new development throughout Toronto’s
Eastern Waterfront. They do not necessarily represent the actual extent nor type of development that
could ultimately be advanced by the current or potential future owners of these lands.
It is also important to note at the outset of this report that the main development scenarios identified
in our study consider a variety of financial investments that will ultimately be borne by both public
and private sector organizations. As such, Sidewalk Labs would be just one of many such entities
contributing to the total investment numbers estimated in this report. While the actual delivery of
some of this new building and infrastructure spending is yet to be determined in terms of specific
funding/financing options and the parties responsible for each investment component, our economic
impact analysis does not necessarily distinguish between the original source of spending. Rather, it
considers the total roll-up impacts of initial one-time and recurring “shock” investments, regardless of
the specific organizations involved (e.g., government agencies, property owners, other private
business interests, etc.).
Contents Executive Summary
1.0 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................. 2
1.2 Purpose ....................................................................................................................................... 5
1.3 Objectives ................................................................................................................................... 5
1.4 Approach .................................................................................................................................... 6
2.0 Baseline Scenario ................................................................................................................ 20
2.1 Development Program ............................................................................................................. 21
2.2 Assumptions ............................................................................................................................. 24
2.3 One Time Impacts (Construction) ............................................................................................ 26
2.4 Recurring Impacts (Occupancy) ............................................................................................... 32
3.0 Sidewalk Labs Scenario ....................................................................................................... 38
3.1 Development Program ............................................................................................................. 39
3.2 Assumptions ............................................................................................................................. 43
3.3 One Time Impacts (Construction) ............................................................................................ 44
3.4 Recurring Impacts (Occupancy) ............................................................................................... 50
3.5 Other Benefits .......................................................................................................................... 55
4.0 Differentiating Factors ........................................................................................................ 57
4.1 Urban Innovation Cluster / Google Canadian HQ .................................................................... 58
4.2 Tall Timber ................................................................................................................................ 65
4.3 Flexibility in Design / Radical Mixed Use .................................................................................. 69
5.0 Tourism Impacts ................................................................................................................. 72
5.1 Toronto Tourism Context ......................................................................................................... 73
5.2 Assumptions ............................................................................................................................. 77
5.3 Visitor Spending Estimates ....................................................................................................... 80
5.4 Visitor Spending Impacts .......................................................................................................... 83
Appendix A Economic Impact Approach ................................................................................... 85
Appendix B Economic Impact Summary Tables ......................................................................... 91
Appendix C urbanMetrics Profile ............................................................................................ 105
Figures Figure 1-1: Existing Conditions in Eastern Waterfront ............................................................................. 2
Figure 1-2: Potential Future Conditions in Eastern Waterfront ............................................................... 4
Figure 1-3: Map of Eastern Waterfront .................................................................................................... 7
Figure 1-4: Map of Phase 1 and Phase 2 Lands ........................................................................................ 8
Figure 1-5: Map of Sub-Districts in Eastern Waterfront ........................................................................... 9
Figure 2-1: Summary of Key Statistics – Development Program (Baseline Scenario) ............................ 22
Figure 2-2: Economic Impact Summary – Building Construction (Baseline Scenario) ............................ 28
Figure 2-3: Economic Impact Summary – Infrastructure (Baseline Scenario) ........................................ 30
Figure 2-4: One-Time Municipal Revenues Summary (Baseline Scenario) ............................................. 31
Figure 2-5: Permanent On-Site Employment (Baseline Scenario) .......................................................... 32
Figure 2-6: Assumed Employment Composition by Industry (Baseline Scenario) ................................. 33
Figure 2-7: Economic Impact Summary – Annual Operating Output (Baseline Scenario) ..................... 35
Figure 2-8: Recurring (Annual) Property Tax Revenues (Baseline Scenario) .......................................... 37
Figure 2-9: Cumulative Property Tax Revenues, 2025 – 2050 (Baseline Scenario) ................................ 37
Figure 3-1: Summary of Key Statistics – Development Program (SWL Vision) ....................................... 41
Figure 3-2: Economic Impact Summary – Building Construction (SWL Vision) ...................................... 46
Figure 3-3: Economic Impact Summary – Infrastructure (SWL Vision)................................................... 48
Figure 3-4: One-Time Municipal Revenues Summary (SWL Vision) ....................................................... 49
Figure 3-5: Permanent On-Site Employment (SWL Vision) .................................................................... 50
Figure 3-6: Assumed Employment Composition by Industry (SWL Vision) ............................................ 51
Figure 3-7: Economic Impact Summary – Annual Operating Output (SWL Vision) ................................ 53
Figure 3-8: Recurring (Annual) Property Tax Revenues (SWL Vision) .................................................... 54
Figure 3-9: Cumulative Property Tax Revenues, 2025-2050 (SWL Vision) ............................................. 55
Figure 4-1: Population Change, 2011-2016 ............................................................................................ 59
Figure 4-2: Percent of Foreign-Born Population ..................................................................................... 59
Figure 4-3: Tech Labour Concentration .................................................................................................. 60
Figure 4-4: Crane Counts in North America ............................................................................................ 61
Figure 4-5: Smart City Benefits ............................................................................................................... 63
Figure 4-6: Forestry Direct Employment, 2007-2017 ............................................................................. 65
Figure 4-7: Location of King-Spadina/King-Parliament ........................................................................... 69
Figure 5-1: Map of Key Tourist Destinations Along Toronto’s Waterfront ............................................ 75
Figure 5-2: Primary Purpose of Tourist Visits to RTO 5 .......................................................................... 76
Figure 5-3: Visitors to RTO 5 by Length of Stay ...................................................................................... 76
Figure 5-4: Average Daily Expenditures by Visitation Type .................................................................... 77
Figure 5-5: Visitation and Spending Forecasts for Eastern Waterfront .................................................. 81
Figure 5-6: Tourism Visitation to Selected Attractions Across North America ...................................... 82
Figure 5-7: Economic Impact Summary – Eastern Waterfront Tourism Spending ................................. 84
Figure B-1: Economic Impact Summary – Baseline Building Construction (Total) ................................. 92
Figure B-2: Economic Impact Summary – Baseline Infrastructure (Phase 1) ......................................... 93
Figure B-3: Economic Impact Summary – Baseline Construction (2040) ............................................... 94
Figure B-4: Economic Impact Summary – Baseline Infrastructure (Phase 1 + Phase 2) ......................... 95
Figure B-5: Economic Impact Summary – Baseline Infrastructure (2040) .............................................. 96
Figure B-6: Economic Impact Summary – Baseline Operating Output (Phase 1 + Phase 2) .................. 97
Figure B-7: Economic Impact Summary – Baseline Operating Output (2040) ....................................... 98
Figure B-8: Economic Impact Summary – SWL Vision Building Construction (Phase 1 + Phase 2) ........ 99
Figure B-9: Economic Impact Summary – SWL Vision Building Construction (Phase 1) ...................... 100
Figure B-10: Economic Impact Summary – SWL Vision Infrastructure (Phase 1 + Phase 2) ................ 101
Figure B-11: Economic Impact Summary – SWL Vision Operating Output (Phase 1 + Phase 2) .......... 102
Figure B-12: Economic Impact Summary – SWL Vision Tourism (Same-Day Expenditures) ................ 103
Figure B-13: Economic Impact Summary – SWL Vision Tourism (Overnight Expenditures) ................ 104
CREDITS
Selected graphics in this report sourced from www.flaticon.com, including icons made by:
• Freepik
• Picnic and Barbecue
• Infographic Elements
• SimpleIcon
• Kiranshastry
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | i
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Executive Summary
ii | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Mandate The primary purpose of this study has been to evaluate the unique economic impacts
associated with Sidewalk Labs’ ambitious and technology-focused development vision
for Quayside and the broader Eastern Waterfront.
urbanMetrics has been retained by Sidewalk Labs to review and evaluate the impacts of redeveloping
underutilized land on Toronto’s Eastern Waterfront. Sidewalk Labs has asked for an independent,
third-party assessment of an innovative new city-building approach that has the potential for
extraordinary economic impact, improved sustainability and enhanced urban quality of life. This
report evaluates the current development concept envisioned and proposed by Sidewalk Labs. The
details contained herein are subject to change based on ongoing and substantive public consultation,
discussions and ultimately additional approvals prior to any new development.
This study has been prepared as a means to help measure the one-time and recurring benefits
associated with advancing development on Toronto’s Eastern Waterfront, including ambitions that
deliver best-in-class, integrated technologies (the Sidewalk Labs Vision) versus a more incremental
approach to development that would evolve over time based on prevailing land-use policies and the
development patterns that currently define Toronto (the Baseline/Status Quo). It is important to note
that the Sidewalk Labs proposal represents the total range of development potential currently
envisioned for the Eastern Waterfront, and may ultimately be refined based on collaborative
outcomes with industry stakeholders and the public at large.
Approach urbanMetrics has modelled the economic impacts of a variety of one-time and recurring investments
relating to the ultimate build-out of the Eastern Waterfront. This has included detailed assessments of
the capital building construction investment associated with both the proposed Sidewalk Toronto and
Baseline scenarios, as well as accompanying spending relating to advanced infrastructure delivery.
Relying on similar methodologies, we have also tested the annual impacts of ongoing operational and
tourism activities in the area upon full build-out of the subject lands.
PART I
Context
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | iii
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Our report also draws attention to the potential influence of a variety of key innovations proposed by
Sidewalk Labs (“SWL”), including an expanded infrastructure commitment, the establishment of an
Urban Innovation Cluster, the wide-spread adoption of tall-timber construction, as well as inherent
design principles that would support increased modularity and flexibility in the use of buildings.
Study Areas Our study has evaluated economic impacts across several pre-defined geographies within Toronto’s
Eastern Waterfront. These geographies have generally been consolidated into two distinct phases.
iv | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Development Scenarios For the purposes of this study, two distinct development scenarios have been
established that each articulate the potential and likely full build-out of the Phase 1 and
2 lands under differing visions.
urbanMetrics has worked both independently and in direct cooperation with SWL to establish the
specific underlying assumptions and factors that have subsequently been considered as part of the
nature and basic composition of investments relating to the two development scenarios identified.
Scenario 1: Policy-Driven Baseline
This “status quo” scenario is based primarily on the existing planning policy regime and zoning
permissions in the Eastern Waterfront, as established by Waterfront Toronto and the three
levels of government. The development assumptions for this scenario have been informed
by a variety of supporting documents, including the Port Lands Planning Framework and more detailed development forecasts prepared by
Waterfront Toronto.
Role: Waterfront Toronto continues to act as the coordinating agency for federal, provincial and local interests on Toronto’s waterfront. Under
Scenario 1, Waterfront Toronto plays a leadership role in delivering incremental investments by
private and public landowners across the entire Toronto waterfront.
Scenario 2: Sidewalk Labs Vision
SWL has outlined a range of ambitious, technologically-driven innovations that constitute
a core differentiation from traditional forms of residential and non-residential development. In
addition to differing degrees of intensification and a unique subset of land uses proposed, SWL has integrated several innovative and one-of-a-kind
elements to their proposed development scheme that represent a material departure from the
traditional development process.
Role: Sidewalk Toronto represents a collaborative partnership between Sidewalk Labs and Waterfront Toronto working towards a
comprehensive, long-term vision for a new urban precinct along Toronto’s Eastern Waterfront.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | v
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Development Vision Sidewalk Labs’ vision for the Eastern Waterfront involves an environmentally
sustainable, high-density, technology-driven community. This community will offer a
variety of housing options, flexibility in use-types, as well as space for fledgling startups
and larger established organizations alike. It is imagined to incorporate innovative,
technology-based solutions to contemporary urban challenges.
The Sidewalk Toronto proposal envisions a unique development of the majority of the
Eastern Waterfront that involves increased provisions for new residential and
commercial spaces to be delivered over a significantly expedited timeline1.
1 SWL has independently developed a vision for the Phase 1 and Phase 2 lands. urbanMetrics has provided some input into
underlying assumptions to inform the proposed concept and related development yields.
vi | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Phase 1
Phase 1 + 2
Baseline Scenario2
Residents: Employees: Housing Units: Gross Floor Area (SF): Completion Date: Construction Value3:
4,800 1,400 2,800 3.1M 2025 $1.5B
30,500 17,000 18,000 24.3M 2050
$12.1B
Sidewalk Labs Vision
Residents: Employees: Housing Units: Gross Floor Area (SF): Completion Date: Construction Value4:
4,500 3,900 2,800 2.6M 2026 $1.6B
53,000 44,000 35,000 32.8M 2040
$17.9B
2 Baseline scenario development program informed primarily by a review of available policy documents and other relevant information, including the Port Lands Planning Framework, discussions with Waterfront Toronto staff, a review of municipal plans and as-of-right development permissions, as well as active development application information and recent Ontario Municipal Board rulings. 3 Excludes capital investments related to infrastructure.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | vii
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Key Impacts
Baseline (Phase 1 + 2)
$12.1B Capital Investment
$3.0B Capital Investment
$5.0B Annual Output
91,500 Construction Jobs (FTE)
22,500 Construction Jobs
18,000 Direct Jobs
SWL Vision (Phase 1 + 2)
$17.9B Capital Investment
$5.2B Capital Investment
$13.2B Annual Output
136,000 Construction Jobs
38,000 Construction Jobs
46,500 Direct Jobs
These capital investments represent all public and privately-led development initiatives throughout the Phase 1 and 2
lands. All job estimates represent Full-Time Equivalents (FTEs). “Direct Jobs” include work-from-home employment.
PART II
Highlights
viii | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Key Takeaways The scale and scope of investment contemplated in the design and delivery of new
buildings, public spaces and community infrastructure on Toronto’s Eastern Waterfront
would represent one of Canada’s most ambitious development projects, ever.
At a total project value of some $23.1B, the full build-out of the project—including infrastructure—
over a 20-year time frame would put Toronto in the international spotlight for decades to come. This
cost represents the totality of the estimated investment required to realize the proposal and would
be borne by various public and private stakeholders, including Sidewalk Labs, its project partners,
lenders, and a variety of unrelated third parties.
Return on Investment
Through Waterfront Toronto, government partners are currently in the process of completing an advanced flood-protection system that will safeguard existing and future neighbourhoods adjacent to the Don River. To date, an estimated $1.25B on nearby flood-protection measures has been committed. The realization of $17.9B in new building construction along the Eastern Waterfront alone—including on lands directly adjacent to the mouth of the Don River— would represent an enormous return on investment, amounting to almost 15 times the initial public investment.
Acceleration of Development
Notwithstanding the aforementioned investment throughout the Eastern Waterfront—and the associated one-time and recurring impacts to the local economy—the Sidewalk Labs vision would also allow for a notable acceleration to developing one of the most underutilized real estate assets in Toronto. In particular, it would represent a major catalyst to development, ultimately advancing the delivery of critical new infrastructure, an expanded LRT network and housing, along with a range of other associated economic benefits over a much shorter development horizon. The Sidewalk Toronto vision represents an opportunity to accelerate full build-out of the Phase 1 and 2 lands more than a decade sooner than the baseline scenario. Acceleration would yield some $1.6B in annual property tax revenue by 2040, compared to only $0.5B realized under the Baseline, as well as delivery of the preliminary phases of a new LRT line significantly earlier than under the baseline scenario.
Urban Innovation, Talent, & Global Leadership
Cities around the world are currently engaged in a race for innovation, talent and leadership. As geo-political conditions continue to shift, Toronto has emerged as a global destination for research and investment in emerging technologies related to healthcare, communications, environmental services, transportation, as well as increasingly in artificial intelligence and machine learning. Over the past 5 years, the number of jobs in Toronto’s
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | ix
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
tech sector has increased by more than 50%. In the last year alone, nearly 30,000 tech jobs were added to the Toronto labour market. As an open and welcoming City, Toronto is ready to capitalize on its growing reputation for urban innovation, green infrastructure and advanced building sciences. The Sidewalk Labs vision would provide an ecosystem that enables software developers, civil engineers and civic institutions to play a pivotal role in shaping emergent technologies that will enable safer, cleaner and more equitable cities going forward. As an anchor to achieving this vision for Toronto, Google has proposed relocating their Canadian Headquarters to the Eastern Waterfront.
Exponential Benefits of Tall Timber
The Sidewalk Labs proposal for Toronto’s Eastern Waterfront envisions a more sustainable future that leverages the natural beauty and structural integrity of wood-based construction. The Sidewalk Labs vision will harness wood products and domestic building innovations that support sustainable forestry practices in communities across Canada. The delivery of wood buildings on Toronto’s waterfront represents one of the most ambitious tall timber projects in the world, and would help developers across North America—and globally—push the envelope for larger, greener, more sustainable building solutions. Canadian producers are expertly positioned to take the reins of a new product segment that is poised for 20 to 30 percent year-over-year growth. The Sidewalk Toronto project could contribute significantly to growth in this industry sector, ultimately requiring the annual production of some 50,000 to 55,000 cubic metres of Cross-Laminated Timber (“CLT”) product to support the full buildout of the concept. This volume of production would be consistent with the annual output of approximately 1.0 – 1.5 average-output CLT factories operating at full capacity. As proposed, the domestic supply of CLT wood products to Toronto’s Eastern Waterfront would support an estimated 2,500-person years of full-time employment, including jobs in manufacturing, sawmills, forests and transportation over a 20-year period.
Continuity
The Sidewalk vision provides Toronto with an opportunity to maintain its status as an international leader for livability and innovation, and at the same time pivot to a new reality where more and more Torontonians want to live and work in the core. The vision provides a robust and immediate response to mounting problems in Toronto, especially housing affordability and escalating congestion. It also provides flexibility to ensure that film, media and other communication companies will continue to define Toronto’s diverse economic base. The construction and reimagination of vast areas of Central Toronto—such as King-Spadina and King-Parliament, for example—have paved the way for a modern city to flourish with new economic life. The Sidewalk vision builds on these successes and ensures that the delivery of housing, workplaces, parks and civic institutions can take root quickly and build upon key infrastructure improvements that are already planned or underway.
x | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Scale of Investment The total value of the capital investment program associated with the full build-out of
the proposal is estimated at some $17.9 Billion. This represents almost a 50% increase
over the building construction related investment than anticipated under the Baseline
scenario.
In addition to the key economic and financial benefits derived from this significant one-time and
ongoing investment in the waterfront, the SWL vision would also yield a more immediate injection of
critical new market and non-market housing, as well as key infrastructure.
At full build-out, the SWL proposal would help to deliver a substantial new supply of
housing units able to support a total population of some 53,000 residents.
This magnitude of housing delivery represents more than 1.7 times the residential population and
approximately 2.0 times the number of units anticipated under the Baseline development scenario.
PART III
Details
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | xi
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
As proposed, the full build-out of the Eastern Waterfront would also establish a variety
of new spaces for existing and potential net growth in local business, ultimately
accomodating an estimated 44,000 permanent on-site jobs.
The vast majority of this local employment base would be focused on high-output office-based
business activities, with a particular focus on urban innovation-related industries. By comparison, the
full build-out of the same area under the Baseline scenario would yield an estimated 17,000
permanent jobs, excluding work from home positions.
Impacts of Investment
Building Construction
The one-time impacts of capital investment in new building construction throughout
the Eastern Waterfront would generate significantly more value to the local economies
of Toronto, Ontario and Canada under the Sidewalk Labs proposal.
Based on the results of our economic impact analysis, the full build-out of the Eastern Waterfront
under the SWL vision could yield some 135,900 jobs (full-time person-years of employment) and
$17.6 Billion in value added to the Canadian economy, including over $12.8 Billion to the Toronto
economy.
xii | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
This represents an almost 1.5 times increase in total value added to the Canadian economy, as well
as an equivalent increase in construction/development related employment relative to the Baseline
scenario.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | xiii
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
The full realization of the Sidewalk Labs proposal for the Eastern Waterfront would
yield almost double the one-time municipal revenues to the City of Toronto.
Based on a combination of both one-time development charges and other planning application
related fees, the full build-out of the SWL vision for the entire Eastern Waterfront would yield some
$970 Million in one-time revenues by the year 2040 under the SWL build program, versus
approximately half of that total ($535 Million) being generated under the Baseline scenario for the
entire Eastern Waterfront.
Infrastructure
Above and beyond the aforementioned capital investment in building construction,
additional spending on the establishment of new infrastructure—including the
proposed extension of the LRT throughout the Eastern Waterfront—would also yield
significant one-time value to the economy.
xiv | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Operational Benefits The realization of the SWL vision would provide opportunities to accrue a range of
significant and recurring economic benefits relating to the various new business
activities that will occupy space throughout the Eastern Waterfront.
Employment Composition
With a proposal to relocate the Google Canadian Headquarters as part of establishing a broader
Urban innovation Cluster in the Eastern Waterfront, underlying local employment would
undoubtedly shift in favour of higher value-added jobs, further supplementing the significant local
service, commercial retail and administrative employment that currently operates in the area.
Specifically, we anticipate up to a 7-fold increase in employment across a number of selected
industry sectors that typically produce among the most significant GDP values per employee.
This injection of a new high output employment base will also help to further solidify Toronto’s
reputation as a major global centre for business and ultimately enhance its ability to compete for
talent on the world stage.
Estimates include additional “work from home” employment.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | xv
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Annual Output
With a significant local employment base estimated at over 44,000 upon completion of development
throughout the Eastern Waterfront, an estimated $13.2 Billion in economic output (GDP) would be
generated by new businesses each year within the Eastern Waterfront, in 2019 dollars.
Similar to the proposed one-time capital investments in building construction and
infrastructure, this level of annual output is expected to generate a range of significant
spin-off benefits to the local economies of Toronto, Ontario and Canada.
xvi | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Acceleration of Development By introducing a range of new innovative techniques to development and technological
advances in building construction, the Sidewalk Labs vision allows for a significant
acceleration to traditional development timelines.
Property Tax Revenues
Among the most notable benefits of this accelerated timeline, the SWL development program would
allow for a more rapid accumulation of property tax revenues generated upon full delivery to market
and ultimate occupancy of various new real estate assets throughout the Eastern Waterfront. By
2040, for example, we estimate that more than triple the property tax revenues will have accrued to
the City of Toronto through development on the Phase 1 and 2 lands.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | xvii
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Permanent Employment
Similar to the aforementioned benefits of cumulative property tax revenues accruing to
the City of Toronto, it is equally important to note that the absorption of new space in
commercial buildings constructed throughout the Eastern Waterfront would be
achieved over a significantly advanced planning horizon.
In particular, not only is the total permanent on-site employment estimated to be almost 3 times
greater upon full build-out of the Eastern Waterfront under the SWL vision, but the growth in jobs is
also expected to be realized significantly earlier relative to the baseline scenario.
xviii | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Geographic Distribution of Benefits The size and scope of the SWL proposal provides economic benefits that will be felt
across the country for decades to come. The project would create employment—not
only in Toronto but nationally—and would provide significant economic lift and tax
revenue creation for governments across Canada.
One-Time Impacts
+
Ongoing Impacts
All economic impacts shown represent the full build-out of Phase 1 and Phase 2 of the Sidewalk Toronto project. Economic
impacts to be realized are not necessarily limited to the main geographies shown above (i.e., a portion are also expected
to accrue directly to a range of other municipal and provincial jurisdictions beyond Toronto and Ontario).
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | xix
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Differentiating Factors
Urban Innovation Cluster / Google Canadian HQ
The City of Toronto is revered the world over for its high quality of life and its competitive business climate. Toronto is widely regarded as one of the most desirable and most dynamic cities in the world. Canadians are proud of the strong leadership they provide on the international stage, and the City of Toronto is a mirror reflection of the global perspective that Canadians steadfastly maintain. Toronto and Sidewalk Labs share a common interest in developing smart, sustainable and socially inclusive cities and neighbourhoods. The Sidewalk Toronto vision represents an opportunity to jointly pursue and promote an innovation landscape that enables bold moves without compromising the importance of collaboration, good design and strong governance.
The Sidewalk Toronto project would galvanize Toronto’s brand position as a Top-10 global destination for investment, innovation and talent. A deeper focus on urban innovation, which broadly includes clean-tech, prop-tech and transportation tech, will draw students, researchers, innovators, entrepreneurs as well as seasoned business leaders to the Toronto market. Sidewalk Lab’s stated proposal to relocate Google Canada’s headquarters to Toronto’s Eastern Waterfront area provides a strong foundational anchor for other tech-companies to follow-suit. The Sidewalk proposal has the potential to position Toronto as the dominant go-to market for designing, testing and implementing urban innovation systems that support key sustainability targets, locally, domestically, and globally.
Tall Timber
Over the past 10-15 years, new technologies in wood manufacturing have enabled the development of taller, stronger and more efficient building structures that leverage both the aesthetic and ecological benefits of wood. In just a few short years, the number of tall-timber projects around the world has grown substantially and building heights are now beginning to soar to previously unimaginable heights.
Today, there are over 35 active tall timber projects on the books, including in Tokyo, London, Chicago, Philadelphia, Stockholm, Paris, Vienna and Amsterdam. These projects range in size from 20+ storeys in cultural capital such as Amsterdam and Vienna to super-tall structures comprising between 70 and 80
xx | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
storeys in major metropolises like Chicago, London and Tokyo. No tall-timber project, however, is more ambitious in size, scope and complexity than that proposed for the Sidewalk Toronto project.
Building on Canada’s global position as a forestry and wood-product manufacturing powerhouse, Sidewalk Toronto would help Canada’s construction sector pivot to more environmentally sustainable—and more efficient—building practices that promise to set new international standards for green building design. The development of tall timber structures on Toronto’s Eastern Waterfront will support massive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions relative to conventional steel, concrete and structures. Moreover, the pursuit of tall timber construction will generate significant momentum for Canada’s forestry sector to invest and innovate in new plant capacity that will turn out stronger and more resilient building materials, in addition to generating new job opportunities. With this, Canada has the potential to stake out a global leadership position in an industry subsector that is projected to experience 20-30% year-over-year growth.
Flexibility in Design (“Radical Mixed Use”)
Twenty years ago, planners in the City of Toronto embarked on a bold policy move designed to reverse the fortunes of two languishing industrial districts flanking the downtown core. The Two Kings – focused on King-Spadina and King-Parliament respectively, represented a fresh way of thinking and helped unlock the potential of under-utilized real estate assets in downtown Toronto. Between 1998 and 2018, the two Kings regeneration policy area—comprising over 400-acres and dozens of city-blocks—set in motion a massive, yet highly organic urban revitalization effort that resulted in the construction of 50,000+ new housing units and 45,000+ new employment positions, all supported by transit. Building on Toronto’s growing interest in dense, urban neighbourhoods, SWL proposes a new district that incorporates the need for flexibility as a precursor for good planning and design. The notion of radical mixed use, which contemplates both horizontal and vertical integration of diverse urban activites, provides users with the ability to grow and adapt with their spaces rather than simply consume them for a limited, fixed period of time. The Sidewalk approach envisions an urban environment that is constantly evolving, without the need for excessive rebuilding and redesign every time something changes. This novel and highly innovative approach is being used to help advance a new template for living; one that fully embraces the benefits of greater urban efficiencies and stronger collaborative connections.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | xxi
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Tourism Spending The SWL vision presents an opportunity to boost recent and ongoing efforts to improve
tourism activities throughout Toronto’s core, ultimately extending the “ribbon” of
existing attractions and establishing an eastern anchor to the waterfront.
The uniqueness of the new developments contemplated under the SWL vision for the Eastern
Waterfront, coupled with the existing and proposed investments by Waterfront Toronto throughout
the area promise to create a one-of-a-kind draw. Due to the scale of the redevelopment concept, it is
likely that the Eastern Waterfront would attract a variety of visitors, for commercial, leisure,
academic, and environmental purposes.
Waterfront Toronto’s investment in public infrastructure throughout the core of Toronto’s waterfront
has had a significant impact on overall tourism patterns. In addition to capturing tourists already
planning to visit Toronto in coming years, it is highly likely that SWL’s development efforts would
induce new trips to Toronto and ultimately encourage visitors to extend their stays. Based on our
research, we anticipate that some 7.4 million tourists could visit the Eastern Waterfront by 2035,
making this destination equivalent to other premier urban districts and destinations in comparable
North American cities.
xxii | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
With significantly increased visitation to the Eastern Waterfront, a total of some $104
Million in tourism related spending could be expected annually in advance of the full
build-out of Phases 1 and 2 of the development.
Based on recent and forecast changes in tourism growth in Toronto, the City is poised to welcome an
increasing number of visitors to the evolving Waterfront. The ambitious Sidewalk Toronto vision in
particular could act as an additional and even stronger driver of visitation to the shores of Lake
Ontario.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | xxiii
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
The vision that Sidewalk Labs has outlined for the Eastern Waterfront represents a
significant city-building opportunity that furthers a range of public policy goals, induces
substantial economic benefits, and represents a significant expansion in scale versus
expected development under a status quo scenario.
The City of Toronto is facing a myriad of challenges as it emerges as a city of global influence.
Affordable housing, public transportation, and environmental sustainability have emerged as pressing
issues facing the City. In order to continue to attract global talent and retain a reputation as a
desirable, open and successful city, it is imperative that Toronto take meaningful steps to address
these challenges.
Sidewalk Labs’ vision for the Eastern Waterfront represents an innovative opportunity for the City of
Toronto to leverage a unique partnership that takes a significant step towards building a more
inclusive, more accessible and more equitable city. Furthermore, the vision proposes a range of
unique, forward-thinking innovations that would position Toronto to maintain a central presence in a
rapidly evolving technology-focused global economy.
The investment of some $23.1 Billion during the full build-out of the Eastern Waterfront—including
both building construction and infrastructure components—would represent a substantial financial
contribution that would have meaningful impacts reverberating through a variety of local industries,
providing a significant amount of associated employment, and generating substantial one-time and
ongoing tax revenue to various levels of government.
Additionally, the potential establishment of a domestic tall-timber manufacturing industry, the
creation of an Urban Innovation Cluster, and pioneering new flexible design principles represent only
a few of the opportunities to realize legacy benefits that would extend far beyond the shores of
Toronto’s Eastern Waterfront in years to come. The economic, social and environmental benefits
associated with the SWL vision presents a generational opportunity to position Toronto as an
innovative municipality on the leading edge of addressing many of the central challenges now facing
contemporary cities.
PART IV
Conclusion
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 1
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
1.0 Introduction
2 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
1.1 Background
Project Inception
In 2001, Waterfront Toronto was formed as part of a tripartite agreement between the City of
Toronto, Province of Ontario and Government of Canada. The corporation’s mandate has been to
develop and execute the revitalization of Toronto’s waterfront into a destination that is attractive to
residents, workers and visitors alike. To date, the undertaking has attracted billions of dollars in
private investment, helped to establish new communities and infrastructure, and redefined Toronto’s
waterfront as a premier destination within the City.
In March 2017, Waterfront Toronto released a Request for Proposals (“RFP”) for an “innovation
partner” to develop Quayside, a 12-acre (5 hectare) parcel of land located at the edge of the East
Bayfront that will serve as a key gateway to the adjoining Port Lands area. The intent of this RFP was
to develop Quayside as a testbed for innovative, technologically-driven design that could ultimately
be implemented across the entire Eastern Waterfront4 and beyond over a longer-term planning
horizon. At over 800 acres (325 hectares), this district represents one of the largest underdeveloped
tracts of urban land remaining in North America.
Figure 1-1: Existing Conditions in Eastern Waterfront
SOURCE: Pinewood Toronto Studios (L), Sidewalk Labs (R).
4 For the purposes of this study, the “Eastern Waterfront” district includes all of the lands commonly known as Quayside, the Keating Channel precinct (Keating West and Keating East), Villiers Island, as well as other portions of the broader Port Lands area. The exact delineation of this area and its various sub-districts have been further defined in Figure 1-3 of this report.
Looking West Looking East
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 3
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Sidewalk Labs (“SWL”), a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc., was ultimately awarded the aforementioned
RFP released by Waterfront Toronto and has since been undertaking a significant, year-long
community engagement and planning program to inform their vision for the area. SWL’s vision is a
data-driven approach that incorporates innovative technology-based solutions to respond to
contemporary issues, including sustainability, affordability and accessibility. The Quayside site and
accompanying development concepts represent an opportunity for the City of Toronto to become a
global leader in technologically-driven urban living.
In support of their recent efforts in Toronto, SWL has engaged a variety of organizations, consulting
practices and non-governmental actors to inform the establishment of a Master Innovation and
Development Plan (“MIDP”) agreement with Waterfront Toronto, which is expected to be completed
in 2019. This document will reflect the culmination of SWL’s detailed research and stakeholder
engagement activities, ultimately serving as a guide for future development plans throughout the
Eastern Waterfront and beyond.
Sidewalk Toronto
As a direct outcome of the process outlined above, Sidewalk Toronto
(“SWTO”) represents a partnership between Sidewalk Labs and Waterfront
Toronto, working together to create a new mixed-use community on the
Toronto waterfront. This partnership will begin with Phase 1 (Quayside) and
could ultimately be scaled across the entire Eastern Waterfront. The main
objectives of this endeavour have been identified as follows:
• Establish a complete community that improves quality of life for a diverse population of
residents, workers, and visitors;
• Create a destination for people, companies, start-ups, and local organizations to advance
solutions to the challenges facing cities, such as energy use, housing affordability, and
transportation;
• Make Toronto the global hub of a rising new industry: urban innovation; and,
• Serve as a model for sustainable neighbourhoods throughout Toronto and cities around the
world.
A major component of Sidewalk Lab’s vision is to incorporate data-driven solutions, technology and
leading-edge planning and design practices into the community. The Sidewalk Toronto project is
looking at how these advances could specifically address central issues in Toronto, including: housing
affordability, transit accessibility and environmental sustainability, as well as investigate how such
improvements could be used to guide decisions that advance the overall well-being of local residents.
4 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 1-2: Potential Future Conditions in Eastern Waterfront
SOURCE: Sidewalk Labs.
Keating Channel
McCleary District Polson Quay
Port District Port District
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 5
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
1.2 Purpose To inform the myriad of options and opportunities available, as well as to provide an understanding of
the unique economic, social and cultural value of new innovations implemented in the area, SWL has
retained urbanMetrics inc. (“urbanMetrics”) to evaluate the economic impacts of their proposed
development initiatives in Toronto’s Eastern Waterfront area.
Serving as additional input to the preliminary development planning and research phase now being
undertaken by SWL, this Economic Impact Analysis provides a detailed assessment as to the potential
economic benefits generated through the initial capital investments proposed in Phase 1 (Quayside),
as well as elsewhere in the Eastern Waterfront. This study also considers a range of other related
economic impacts that could be derived from the ongoing business operations and tourism activities
expected within the new communities that would be established upon completion of the proposal.
This report evaluates the current development concept envisioned and proposed by Sidewalk Labs.
The details contained herein are subject to change based on ongoing and substantive public
consultation, discussions, and ultimately additional approvals prior to any new development.
Given the scale of development being contemplated across the Eastern Waterfront, as well as the
growth pressures currently facing the City of Toronto, SWL’s proposal represents a unique and
innovative opportunity that has the potential to utilize technology in ways that enhances quality of
life for Torontonians, and fundamentally influences the future of urban living across the globe.
Our work on this assignment has ultimately sought to quantify and provide additional third-party
commentary as to the specific economic benefits associated with Sidewalk Labs’ ambitious proposal
to provide first-to-market innovations and new ideas that will redefine urban living. It is important to
note that the Sidewalk Labs proposal represents the total range of development potential currently
envisioned for the Eastern Waterfront, and may be ultimately refined based on collaboration with
industry stakeholders and the public at large.
1.3 Objectives Based on the underlying purpose of this study, the following highlights a number of the more specific
objectives of the research program undertaken by urbanMetrics.
• To articulate a baseline development scenario that reflects the anticipated scale and nature
of investment that would be pursued by traditional land developers in Toronto, absent the
involvement of Sidewalk Labs;
6 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
• To understand how SWTO’s proposed innovations and development concept could differ
from a more policy-driven approach to development that is likely to prevail under a “status
quo” scenario;
• To determine the one-time construction impacts associated with a number of pre-identified
development scenarios, including comparisons between each outcome;
• To evaluate a more comprehensive range of recurring operational impacts associated with
the future employment base expected under each scenario;
• To provide an understanding of the key qualitative and broader spin-off economic impacts
associated with the various scenarios tested, including a more detailed evaluation of some of
the key differentiating factors unique to the vision established for Sidewalk Toronto; and,
• To offer insight into the potential tourism benefits associated with the development of a
unique new technologically-driven neighbourhood in Toronto.
1.4 Approach The following provides a brief introduction to the basic structure of our analysis, the specific types of
quantitative and qualitative economic impacts that have been considered, the geographic extent of
our research, as well as a number of the key underlying assumptions and parameters that establish a
foundation for the more detailed research findings presented herein.
Key Geographies
While the recent and ongoing revitalization efforts undertaken by Waterfront Toronto encompass the
full extent of the Toronto waterfront—extending between Mimico and Port Union in the west and
east, respectively—this particular study has focused exclusively on an area that urbanMetrics has
defined as the “Eastern Waterfront”, as illustrated in Figure 1-3 below.
This represents the main geographic area of focus for SWL, beginning with the 12-acre (5 hectare)
Quayside parcel situated at the north-west corner of the Eastern Waterfront and potentially
extending further south and east over a longer-term, phased planning horizon. It encompasses a
significant portion of the broader Port Lands area.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 7
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 1-3: Map of Eastern Waterfront
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. Image is for reference purposes only.
As part of the more detailed economic impact reporting included throughout this report, it has also
been important to present our findings at different levels of geography and spatial scales. To this end,
we have adopted a number of smaller sub-geographies within the Eastern Waterfront, which
generally correspond with many of the pre-existing planning efforts undertaken by Waterfront
Toronto and the City of Toronto. It is important to note, however, that these districts do vary slightly
from those delineated within the Port Lands Planning Framework. The geographies shown above have
additionally been utilized by Sidewalk Labs, and grouped into distinct phases. For the purposes of this
report, the phasing and geographical distinctions outlined herein have been held constant throughout
our analysis.
As outlined below and per the maps in Figure 1-4 and Figure 1-5, the Eastern Waterfront area is
generally comprised by the lands defined herein as Quayside, Keating West, Keating East, Villiers
8 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Island, Polson Quay, and McCleary District. These are the various sub-districts and smallest levels of
geography considered in this study.
Based on the development concepts and definitions available from SWL, the Eastern Waterfront has
also been further sub-divided into three distinct phases, as follows: Phase 1 includes Quayside and
Phase 2 includes Keating West, Keating East, Villiers Island, Polson Quay and McCleary District.
It is important to note at the outset of this study that—based on the definitions above—the entire
Eastern Waterfront area represents our main area of focus. While any new development efforts in
this area are generally expected to begin with Phase 1—with or without SWL—the broader Phase 1
and Phase 2 lands represent the required scale at which the various technological and infrastructural
investments proposed for the Eastern Waterfront can be reasonably achieved. For example, planned
investments in LRT infrastructure would not be warranted with the development of Phase 1 alone,
nor could the associated economic benefits be solely attributed to this relatively small level of
geography.
Figure 1-4: Map of Phase 1 and Phase 2 Lands
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. Image is for reference purposes only.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 9
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 1-5: Map of Sub-Districts in Eastern Waterfront
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. Image is for reference purposes only.
10 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Development Scenarios
urbanMetrics has worked in direct cooperation with SWL to establish a number of distinct
development scenarios that articulate the potential and likely full build-out of the Eastern Waterfront.
The specific underlying assumptions and factors considered as part of each of these development
scenarios have been determined based on urbanMetrics’ extensive experience in urban development
projects across the Greater Toronto Area and beyond, including in particular our work along Toronto’s
waterfront, as well as per direct input from SWL relating to their own vision for the lands.
The scenarios tested in this study are outlined in more detail below.
Scenario 1: Policy-Driven Baseline To establish a reasonable baseline and general point of reference for our analysis, we have quantified the economic benefits of a “status quo” scenario associated with development of the Eastern Waterfront under the current planning policy context5. It assumes that all development in this area will occur in the complete absence of SWL. This scenario is based primarily on the existing planning policy regime and zoning permissions in the Eastern Waterfront, as established by Waterfront Toronto and the three levels of government. The development assumptions for this scenario have been informed by a variety of supporting documents, including the Port Lands Planning Framework and more detailed development forecasts prepared by Waterfront Toronto.6
5 Recognizing the rapid rate of change and current trends relating to densities and scales of development within Toronto—particularly within the Downtown area—we have also undertaken a related but distinct assessment of a more “market-driven” baseline development scenario. This alternative scenario generally considered more significant development densities at select locations than those outlined through existing policy, which may provide for a more realistic assessment of the potential future build-out of this area (i.e., even in the absence of SWL moving forward). For simplicity, however, we have not reported directly on the results of this analysis in this particular document. 6 Documents referenced include: The Port Lands Planning Framework, decisions rendered by the Ontario Municipal Board on various proximate lands, as-of-right zoning designations, in addition to detailed development forecasts prepared by Waterfront Toronto and relied upon by urbanMetrics as part of previous economic impact studies.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 11
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Scenario 2: Sidewalk Labs Vision SWL has outlined a range of ambitious, technologically-driven innovations that constitute a core differentiation from traditional forms of residential and non-residential development. As such, we have undertaken an equivalent analysis to that prepared for Scenario 1, but relating to a more ambitious type of development for the Eastern Waterfront, as envisioned by SWL7. In addition to differing degrees of intensification and a unique subset of land uses proposed, SWL has integrated several innovative and one-of-a-kind elements to their development scheme that represent a material departure from the traditional development process. Some of the key elements that define this departure—which have all been described in more detail herein—include:
The establishment of an Urban Innovation Cluster and corresponding proposal to relocate Google’s Canadian Headquarters to the Eastern Waterfront;
A widespread reliance on Mass-Timber based construction methods and materials; and,
A commitment to greater flexibility in design and
“radical mixed-use” development, allowing for a more dynamic occupation of buildings.
While most of the economic impacts associated with these two scenarios have been reported
separately in the following sections of this report, one of the main outcomes of this study has been to
determine the relative benefit to all three levels of government and the surrounding community in
this part of Toronto. As such, the summary sections of this report provide a more in-depth
consideration of the “head-to-head” comparisons for a number of selected variables and key metrics.
7 The SWL development concepts—including associated use types, densities and project costing—have been determined completely independent from urbanMetrics. The detailed statistical inputs required for this study have been provided by SWL with the sole purpose of quantifying the economic value of realizing their vision for the subject lands.
12 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Quantitative Impacts
The majority of the key economic impacts identified throughout this report have been calculated
through the use of an econometric model that simulates the flow of expenditures throughout the
economy. The underlying principle of this type of model is that each dollar of expenditure on goods
and/or services purchased from a given industry sector circulates and re-circulates within the
economy, thereby multiplying the impact of the initial expenditure. This concept is referred to as the
multiplier effect, and has three main components: direct impacts, indirect impacts and induced
impacts.
The custom-built model utilized by urbanMetrics is based on input-output tables produced by
Statistics Canada and is designed to provide a reliable measure of the impact of a given initial or
“shock” investment on employment generation, labour incomes, value added to the economy, as well
as government revenues. These types of impacts have generally been expressed at the National,
Provincial and local (i.e. City of Toronto) levels.
This report primarily assesses the potential incremental benefits associated with Sidewalk Labs’
technologically-driven plan for the Eastern Waterfront and has sought to articulate the key
differences of the SWL vision relative to more traditional approaches to real estate development.
Beyond the basic changes in density and use-type breakdown inherent to each of the development
concepts considered, the unique nature of Sidewalk Labs’ vision for these lands have also been
reflected in the key inputs and overall structure of our analysis, wherever possible.
For example, in order to capture the full extent of the unique impacts derived from each of the two
development scenarios identified, we have tested a range of different types of capital investments
and ongoing operational activities. The following provides a brief introduction to the specific types of
investments and business activities that have been tested using the input-output model noted above.
The full build-out of the Eastern Waterfront will involve substantial one-time capital investments to construct the various new buildings and real estate assets in this area. These investments are expected to span residential, retail/service commercial, office, industrial/production, institutional, and a range of other unique uses. The identified land uses, development densities and building materials used in the new buildings will have a significant influence on the magnitude and nature of the total expenditures made. Developing an understanding as to how the SWL vision differs from more traditional development formats has been an important aspect of this component of our analysis.
See Appendix A for a more detailed overview of our economic impact approach.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 13
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Similar to the construction of the actual buildings and new spaces being integrated within this area, the full build-out of the Eastern Waterfront will require extensive capital investments relating to infrastructure. Some of the basic underlying elements that will be common to both development scenarios—at least in part—include: sitework, stormwater management, public realm improvements, roads, bridges, and transit. In addition, the SWL vision will involve the introduction of a range of more unique and one-of-a-kind infrastructure components that underscore the technology-driven focus of their endeavour.
In addition to the scale of development considered under each scenario—which will have a direct influence on the total number of jobs that can be accommodated in the Eastern Waterfront—the vision proposed by SWL will have a fundamental impact on the nature of local business activities. For example, a proposal to relocate Google’s Canadian Headquarters to the Eastern Waterfront and establishing a corresponding Urban Innovation Cluster collectively represent a significant divergence from the types of traditional mixed-use development likely to prevail at this location in the absence of SWL. This will alter the core composition of the resulting employment base in this area, as well as the corresponding level and type of output from local businesses.
Recognizing SWL’s innovative approach to neighbourhood building and radical departure from traditional development concepts, the new communities developed under the SWL vision will undoubtedly attract significant tourism interest from across the globe. We anticipate that this heightened interest in Toronto and the Eastern Waterfront will emerge from students, academics, urbanists, in addition to more casual members of the general public; all of which may embark on dedicated trips to encounter the area and/or increase their dwell time as part of existing travel plans. Overall, the SWL concept would induce additional visitation to Toronto, thereby increasing tourism-related expenditures in the local economy.
In addition to the main economic impacts determined through the foregoing analysis, we have also
considered a range of other one-time and recurring economic benefits that are not captured by this
14 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
type of input-output modelling. The following identifies a number of the additional metrics that have
been considered in this study, including for both of the main development scenarios.
• On-Site Employment Growth (Permanent)
Whereas our analyses of the initial capital investments and recurring business operations
associated with each development scenario have determined the total employment supported
by these particular economic activities, we have also undertaken a more focused assessment
as to the total on-site employment that could be accommodated within the new communities
established in the Eastern Waterfront. That is, rather than the more widespread employment
impacts resulting from the specific “shock” investments identified earlier (e.g., building
construction, infrastructure, operating output, tourism spending, etc.), we have estimated the
number of permanent jobs that will be accommodated in the area upon full build-out. These
jobs will collectively represent the future employment base in the Eastern Waterfront.
• Municipal Fees (One-Time)
In addition to the aggregated government revenues calculated as a function of the initial and
ongoing economic spending identified above—which are expected to accrue to all three levels
of government and in jurisdictions across Canada—the full build-out of the Eastern Waterfront
will incur a range of more specific charges and fees that are unique to the City of Toronto. In
particular, we have estimated the total development charge revenues and other one-time
planning application fees that will result from new development in this area.
• Property Taxes (Recurring)
Similarly, the various new and improved real estate assets established throughout the Eastern
Waterfront can ultimately be expected to generate significant revenue for the City of Toronto
by way of increased property tax revenues. Based on a combination of current municipal
property tax rates and our own estimates of the potential future assessment value of
properties located throughout the Eastern Waterfront, we have determined the total property
tax revenues that could be generated by each of the identified geographies, as well as over
various time horizons based on project phasing.
Qualitative Impacts
Finally, beyond the quantifiable economic impacts outlined above, the project team has also
identified a variety of additional benefits associated with the proposed development and full build-
out of the Eastern Waterfront, as envisioned by SWL. These benefits have been informed by the
underlying development concept established by SWL, as well as additional supplementary research
completed by urbanMetrics into the nature and resulting impact of the unique innovations proposed
by the organization.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 15
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Some of the wide-ranging economic and social outcomes that may be realized as a result of the SWL
vision include improved quality of life, increased sustainability outcomes, enhanced infrastructure
investment, expedited development timelines, affordable housing provision, positive contribution to
the overall profile of Toronto as a global city, among other benefits identified herein.
As identified earlier in this report, we have also undertaken a more in-depth evaluation of a number
of more selected differentiating factors likely to emerge from the SWL vision, which are expected to
have a more notable impact on the local economy. The key differentiating factors considered in this
portion of our analysis include:
Urban Innovation Cluster / Google Canadian HQ As part of their proposed investment in the Eastern Waterfront, SWL has committed to several actions and initiatives that will support the development of a broader Urban Innovation Cluster. This investment program envisions a hub for non-governmental organizations, research institutions, post-secondary institutions and private tech-firms working in a collaborative and experimental environment, with a particular focus on technology driven initiatives that impact urban places and produce tangible improvements to quality of life. As an anchor to this node, SWL has proposed relocating and expanding Google’s Canadian Headquarters to a new facility on the Eastern Waterfront. In addition, SWL has will dedicate space to support institutions that will catalyze and attract a broader cluster of technology-centric organizations and businesses. Notwithstanding the range of other urban innovations proposed, this initiative alone presents an opportunity to cement the Eastern Waterfront as an innovative new district that could become an industry leader in advancing city-based technologies. Once established, it would help Toronto continue to compete for talent and attract new businesses from across the world, representing a significant departure from the traditional composition of employment seen across most areas of Toronto at present. As envisioned, this area would position Toronto as the global leader in technologically driven urban innovations, using the Eastern Waterfront as a lived demonstration of the potential benefits and opportunities.
16 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Tall Timber SWL has committed to a widespread adoption of tall timber-based construction methods, wherever possible throughout all of the developments undertaken in the Eastern Waterfront. This initiative marks a significant departure from more traditional steel and concrete forms of development, which continue to dominate the construction landscape across North America. Despite the significant environmental, cost and building efficiency benefits of timber-based construction, it has not yet been utilized on such a large scale to date; particularly in the Toronto context. The SWL proposal provides an opportunity for Toronto to become a global leader in the manufacturing, design and implementation of wood-frame based mid- and high-rise building construction.
Flexibility in Design (“Radical Mixed Use”) SWL has proposed an approach to development in the Eastern Waterfront that allows for extreme flexibility in the evolving use and occupation of buildings, particularly in terms of their overall design and ultimate tenanting. For example, SWL is introducing new building types – known as “loft” and “stoa” spaces – which have high ceilings and flexible floorplates to accommodate changing uses over time. As demand for space changes through inevitable market cycles and technological advances, the SWL vision establishes an unparalleled degree of flexibility to avoid lengthy and expensive reconstruction projects and time delays in repositioning assets for various uses. This type of modularity also delivers significant benefit to individual businesses that could occupy space in these building, reflecting their own expansion and growth patterns over time.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 17
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Assumptions
There are a number of underlying and basic assumptions upon which the validity of the findings
presented in this report depend. Based on our considerable and long-term experience in the urban
planning and real estate development process, we recognize and appreciate the problems associated
with making generalized assumptions about future conditions. Undoubtedly, deviations from
historical and current trends will occur in the future, however, basic simplifying assumptions are
required regarding the possible extent of such deviations.
The following provides a brief summary as to a number of the key underlying assumptions for this
particular economic impact analysis. Additional assumptions relating to the individual development
concepts tested (i.e., Scenarios 1 and 2) have also been included in Sections 2.0 and 3.0 of this report,
respectively.
• During the forecast period discussed in this report, a reasonable degree of economic stability
will prevail in the Province of Ontario, and specifically in the context of the City of
Toronto/Greater Toronto Area market.
• The various statistical inputs relied upon in our analyses—based largely on municipal
information, CoStar Realty Information Inc. and other available real estate market data
sources—are considered sufficiently accurate for the purposes of this analysis. These statistical
sources have ultimately informed a number of the key underlying assumptions and inputs
utilized in our analysis, including those relating to building efficiencies, vacancy rates, average
unit sizes, employment densities, parking ratios, hard and soft building costs, property
assessment values, property tax rates and other municipal fees, employment compositions by
industry and other relevant factors.
• The real estate development programs outlined herein are preliminary and very high-level
concepts only. They are intended for reference and illustrative purposes, providing a general
indication as to the possible extent of new development throughout the Eastern Waterfront.
They do not necessarily represent the actual extent nor type of development that could
ultimately be advanced by the current or future owners of the subject lands. As outlined in
more detail herein, these concepts have been based on information obtained directly from
both Waterfront Toronto and SWL.
• The two main development scenarios identified in this study consider a variety of investments
that will ultimately be borne by both public and private sector organizations. While the
actual delivery of some of this new building and infrastructure spending is yet to be
determined in terms of specific funding/financing options and the parties responsible for each
investment component, our economic impact analysis does not necessarily distinguish
between the original source of spending. Rather, it considers the total roll-up impacts of initial
18 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
“shock” investments, regardless of the individual organizations involved (e.g., government
agencies, property owners, other private business interests, etc.).
• Given the scale of development contemplated across the Eastern Waterfront—and the
corresponding amount of construction and other related employment required as input to
realizing these concepts—both the Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 plans could inherently contribute
to and/or exacerbate local shortages in a range of construction trades. Given that such a
significant development plan will undoubtedly be phased in over time, however, it has
generally been assumed that construction activity in the Eastern Waterfront will not, in and of
itself, cause any meaningful supply and demand imbalances in the local economies of Toronto
or the broader Greater Toronto area. As such, we have not made any adjustments in our
analysis to account for these risks.
• The analyses presented in this report assumes that the significant amount of new
development forecast for the Eastern Waterfront would not be possible without the initial
investment in planning and infrastructure by both Waterfront Toronto and SWL. Although it is
possible that a portion of this future development activity could locate elsewhere in the
City/Region in the absence of such investments, we note that the Eastern Waterfront
represents a particularly unique opportunity in terms of its proximity to the City’s downtown
core, access to new waterfront and other community amenities, as well as with respect to the
magnitude of land available for redevelopment at a single location. As such, it is our opinion
that a significant portion of the benefits associated with the development planned for this
area can be directly attributed to the investments and construction spending identified in this
study. In the absence of these types of investments, any opportunities for a similar level of
development in other parts of the City would likely be limited by comparison.
• References to the Canadian dollar in this report, dealing with present and future periods,
reflect its 2019 value. We recognize that fluctuation in the absolute value of the dollar will
likely occur during the period covered by this report. We assume, however, that the
relationship between the various metrics identified (e.g., current real estate/assessment
value, construction costs, etc.) and the value of the dollar will remain more or less constant
during the period analyzed. As such, no adjustments for inflation have been included in our
analysis.
• Similar to above, given the preliminary and conceptual nature of the development scenarios
considered in this study—as well as the level of statistical detail available at this early stage of
the planning process—our economic impact analyses do not necessarily take into account the
time value of money, nor have we applied a corresponding discount rate, as is typical in more
traditional development pro forma financial analyses. In the case of an economic impact
analysis, such as those presented in this report, the resulting financial benefits are a direct
result of an initial “shock” expenditure or investment. The multiplier effect of this initial
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 19
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
spending will not change simply because the scale of an investment is reduced or increased,
provided the proportion spent within each industry category generally remains the same.
If, for any reason, major changes occur which could influence the basic assumptions stated above, the
recommendations contained in this report should be reviewed in light of such changed conditions and
revised, if necessary.
20 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
2.0 Baseline Scenario
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 21
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
2.1 Development Program The baseline development scenario considered in this study assumes a full build out of the Eastern
Waterfront, based on existing policy initiatives and plans. It assumes a complete absence of SWL in
the future development of this area and has been informed primarily by a review of available policy
documents and other relevant information, including the Port Lands Planning Framework, discussions
with Waterfront Toronto staff, a review of municipal plans and as-of-right development permissions
(i.e., per current Official Plan and Zoning By-law definitions), as well as a review of active
development applications and recent Ontario Municipal Board (“OMB”) rulings. Where necessary,
urbanMetrics has also supplemented this review with estimates as to the potential scale of
development at selected sites, based on our own professional judgement and local precedents.
The following highlights some of the key findings from this exercise in terms of the scale of
development contemplated across the Eastern Waterfront, including for each of the key geographies
identified earlier in Section 1.4 of this report. An explanation of the more specific underlying
assumptions that have contributed to the derivation of these figures has been provided herein.
22 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 2-1: Summary of Key Statistics – Development Program (Baseline Scenario)
Quayside Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
4,800 Residents 1,400 Employees 2,800 Units 3.1 Million (sq ft) 2025 $1.5 Billion
Total Phase 1
Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
4,800 Residents 1,400 Employees 2,800 Units 3.1 Million (sq ft) 2025 $1.5 Billion
Keating West Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
5,000 Residents 2,000 Employees 3,000 Units 3.5 Million (sq ft) 2025 $1.7 Billion
Keating East Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
3,500 Residents 2,000 Employees 2,000 Units 2.4 Million (sq ft) 2045 $1.2 Billion
Villiers Island Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
8,000 Residents 3,000 Employees 5,000 Units 5.6 Million (sq ft) 2040 $2.8 Billion
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 23
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Polson Quay Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
- 5,000 Employees - 3.3 Million (sq ft) 2045 $1.7 Billion
McCleary District Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
9,000 3,500 Employees 5,500 Units 6.3 Million (sq ft) 2050 $3.1 Billion
Total Phase 2* Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
25,500 Residents 15,500 Employees 15,000 Units 21.2 Million (sq ft) 2050 $10.6 Billion
Grand Total (Total Phase 1 + 2)
Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
30,300 17,000 Employees 17,800 24.3 Million (sq ft) 2050 $12.1 Billion
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based primarily on development concept information obtained from Waterfront Toronto and other input assumptions developed by urbanMetrics. NOTE: Gross Floor Area figures include existing space identified to be maintained. Total construction costing shown is
comprised of both hard and soft costs. Numbers may not add up due to rounding.
*Phase 1 includes: Quayside; Phase 2 includes: Keating West, Keating East, Villiers Island, Polson Quay & McCleary District.
Grand Total (Eastern Waterfront) includes Phase 1 and 2 lands.
24 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
2.2 Assumptions In order to arrive at a full build-out concept for the Eastern Waterfront, as well as subsequent cost
estimates, square footage allocations, job and resident yields and fiscal benefits, urbanMetrics has
incorporated a range of assumptions. For the purposes of this document, the following key
assumptions are highlighted.
• Build-Out Program – Baseline development figures (i.e. total floor area estimates and detailed
allocations by land use) have been determined based on development forecasts obtained
directly from Waterfront Toronto as part of urbanMetrics’ previous project experience in this
area. Where necessary, we have also reviewed active planning applications and development
permissions for selected sites, based on available information from the City of Toronto.
• Net New Space – With the exception of a few selected industrial sites and heritage
properties—which are expected to retain the majority of their existing space, either in their
current condition or as part of a significant renovation—the Baseline development program
generally assumes a complete redevelopment of most of the sites in the Eastern Waterfront
(i.e., complete demolition and net new development upon full build-out). We note, however,
that we have only considered the costs of “net new” and/or significantly renovated buildings
as input to our assessment of building construction impacts, which we believe is a particularly
conservative approach.
Similarly, estimates of existing space have been determined based on information provided by
Waterfront Toronto.
• Planned and Approved Public Investments – The identified geographies and related
assumptions regarding possible phasing, as well as developable land areas, are predicated on
the continuation and ultimate completion of several significant public investments (including
both ongoing and approved spending). For example, approved changes to the Gardiner
Expressway re-alignment and Don River flood protection initiatives—as well as their
subsequent and material impact on opportunities for new development—are assumed to be
completed per current plans. Furthermore, it has been assumed that no significant deviations
from the existing planning framework and general intent of development on the subject lands
will occur in the coming years.
• Other Development Assumptions – Relying on the underlying floor area estimates noted
above, urbanMetrics has further applied a number of assumptions relating to building
efficiencies (i.e., net leasable/saleable areas), gross construction areas, vacancy rates, housing
type and tenure, average residential unit sizes, property assessment values and other relevant
metrics to arrive at the specific input formats required for this type of economic impact
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 25
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
analysis. These assumptions have been developed based primarily on precedents in the
surrounding market area, as well as broader averages for the City of Toronto.
• Population & Employment – Population and employment yields for all geographies have been
determined using average person per unit (PPU) and employment density (floor space per
worker) estimates for each major land use category.
• Building Construction Costs – Hard building construction costs for the Baseline Scenario
development program have been estimated by urbanMetrics based on the underlying build-
out figures provided, as well as appropriate construction cost ratios for the type and location
of development under consideration. Additional soft costs have also been considered as part
of a fixed percentage of the total capital investment required.
• Municipal Rates – Parking allocations, property tax revenues, development charges and
planning fees have all been determined based on current City of Toronto rates and ratios for
2018.
• Employment Composition – Relying on our estimates of the number of jobs that could be
accommodated upon full build-out of the Baseline development program, we have further
allocated the total employment throughout the Eastern Waterfront to a range of pre-defined
industry categories. This allocation was estimated by urbanMetrics, based on available Census
and Toronto Employment Survey data to determine the current composition of similar
employment areas throughout the municipality.
• Development Timing – The overall development phasing and potential timing of market entry
for each development block identified have been estimated by urbanMetrics, based on the
nature and scale of construction contemplated. These estimates are generally consistent with
the overall development timing now being considered by Waterfront Toronto and other local
property owners in the area. These estimates also reflect the likely timing of new
infrastructure delivery—including both funded and unfunded projects—which will represent
one of the main determinants of how quickly this area can ultimately build-out in the coming
years (e.g., floor protection, transit infrastructure, etc.).
26 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
2.3 One Time Impacts (Construction)
Building Construction
Based on the results of our economic impact analysis, the full build-out of Phases 1 and 2 of the
Eastern Waterfront—as determined through the baseline or “policy-driven” development parameters
outlined in Section 2.1—would generate significant economic value across Toronto, Ontario and
Canada. As detailed herein, a significant portion of the resulting revenues and employment impacts
would be realized directly within the City of Toronto, providing immediate benefit to the host
municipality, as well as spread more broadly throughout the local GTA economy.
The total value of construction of the development plan has been estimated at some $12.1 Billion
under the conditions of the Baseline development scenario. This includes two main spending
components, as follows:
• Hard Construction Costs – The cost of building construction, estimated using average cost per
square foot factors for the Toronto market and other comparable projects in the area; and,
• Soft Costs – Includes professional fees, marketing charges and contingency fees, as well as all
municipal charges (e.g., development charges, planning application fees, etc.)8.
Based on these estimates, the one-time construction expenditures associated with the build-out of
Phases 1 and 2 of the Baseline vision– including direct, indirect and induced impact components—will
generate a total of:
• ±$11.9 Billion in value added to the Canadian economy ($8.8 Billion in Toronto);
• ±91,500 full-time person years of employment (70,000 in Toronto)9,10;
• ±$7.4 Billion in labour income ($5.8 Billion in Toronto); and,
8 Building construction costs do not include developer profits (i.e., gross operating surplus). While this is essential to most traditional real estate development financial analyses, it is not required for this type of economic impact modelling. 9 These employment figures represent the full-time, full-year jobs generated by the intial direct capital investment in
buiding construction, as well as the indirect and induced impacts that are spread more broadly throughout the regional,
provincial and national economies. For the types of expenditures analyzed in this portion of our study, the employment
figures represent total years of full-time employment (e.g., one job identified represent the equivalent to one person
working full-time for the duration of one year). 10 Employment impacts and related multipliers have been adjusted (i.e., deflated) to reflect more accurate annual income statistics available for the City of Toronto and Province of Ontario.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 27
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
• ±$4.8 Billion in revenues to the three levels of government, in the form of personal tax,
corporate tax, and other taxes11 (with approximately $1.1 Billion available at the municipal
level in Toronto).
The infographic in Figure 2-2 provides a similar overview and illustration as to the unique economic
impacts resulting from the baseline building construction across the Eastern Waterfront, whereas a
more detailed overview of the associated direct, indirect and induced impact components, as well as
a breakdown for each jurisdiction (i.e., Toronto, Ontario and Canada) has been provided in Appendix
B at the end of this report.
It is also important to note that—while we have included a range of more detailed reporting by
smaller geographies (e.g., at the district or development block level within the broader Eastern
Waterfront), the economic impacts referenced in this section represent the total National outputs.
With respect to building construction, the economic impacts attributable to each sub-geography are
generally commensurate with the overall level of development contemplated at each of these
locations, as outlined in Figure 2-1.
11 Other taxes include: Federal Trading Profits, Federal Gas Tax, Federal Excise Tax, Federal Duty Tax, Federal
Environmental Tax, Federal Air Transportation Tax, Federal Sales Tax, Import Duties, Federal Taxes on Production,
Provincial Environment Tax, Provincial Gallon Tax, Provincial Trading Profits, Provincial Gas Tax, Provincial Amusement Tax,
Other Provincial Consumption Taxes, Provincial Sales Tax, Provincial harmonized Sales Tax, Provincial Taxes on Production,
Municipal Amusement Tax, Municipal Sales Tax and Municipal Taxes on Production.
See Appendix B for a more detailed economic impact summary tables.
28 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 2-2: Economic Impact Summary – Building Construction (Baseline Scenario)
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. Includes development throughout entire Eastern Waterfront.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 29
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Infrastructure
In addition to the economic benefits associated with the construction of various buildings throughout
the Eastern Waterfront—including all residential, retail/service commercial, office and
institutional/community uses contemplated—a significant initial capital outlay will be required to
provide the underlying infrastructure necessary to adequately service these new communities.
Recognizing the current state and general lack of higher order infrastructure throughout this
predominantly industrial area, the scale of investment required to prepare the subject lands for the
intensified, mixed-use development envisioned will be significant.
Under the Baseline scenario, the level of infrastructure provided is assumed to be consistent with
current standards across the City of Toronto. For example, it has generally been assumed that the
development of new roadway infrastructure will not be constructed to different metrics or degrees of
quality than any other existing and comparable roadways in Toronto.
Based on estimates provided by SWL as part of their own internal infrastructure costing, the basic and
common underlying infrastructure investment required to realize the Baseline development scenario
is $3.0 Billion. This upfront and one-time capital investment in infrastructure includes expenditures
relating to sitework, civil infrastructure, public realm improvements, bridges, stormwater
management, road management, as well as the anticipated extension of Light Rail Transit (LRT)
service along Queens Quay East, among other relevant spending.
Similar to the findings presented in the previous subsection for building construction impacts, the
following outlines the key economic impacts associated with this level of infrastructure spending
under the Baseline scenario.
30 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 2-3: Economic Impact Summary – Infrastructure (Baseline Scenario)
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. Includes development throughout entire Eastern Waterfront.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 31
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Municipal Fees
In addition to the more significant one-time and nation-wide benefits identified in the previous
subsections of this report, the full build-out of the Eastern Waterfront would also generate significant
one-time revenues to the City of Toronto in the form of development charges and associated planning
application fees. As shown in Figure 2-4, the full build out of the policy-driven development concept
would yield approximately $535 Million in one-time municipal revenues, based on 2018 rates12 and
be realized at various stages over the entirety of the build program to 2060. Phase 1 alone would
account for some $80 Million—or approximately 14.9%—of this total.
Figure 2-4: One-Time Municipal Revenues Summary (Baseline Scenario)
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on City of Toronto 2018 Planning Fees.
12 Includes development charges, Official Plan amendment and Zoning By-law amendment fees. Estimate does not include Plan of Subdivision, Plan of Condominium, nor any other one-time municipal fees. Fee estimate is subject to change based on the ultimate development concepts advanced to the municipality, as well as the unit composition and overall mix of uses proposed.
32 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
2.4 Recurring Impacts (Occupancy)
Permanent Employment
Figure 2-5 further identifies the potential permanent on-site employment that could be
accommodated within the various newly constructed and/or renovated existing buildings throughout
the Eastern Waterfront under the Baseline development scenario. These employment estimates are
derived from the total build-out concepts identified for the subject lands, as well as average
employment density factors applied to each of the major land uses categories identified.
As shown, the full buildout of the concept could ultimately accommodate a total of some 17,000
permanent jobs upon completion, with the majority concentrated in office type buildings.
Figure 2-5: Permanent On-Site Employment (Baseline Scenario)
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. Work at home employment calculated separately from permanent on-site jobs.
Based on the employment estimates for the status quo development scenario shown above and as
input to our analysis of the ongoing operating output of the future employment base in this area, we
have estimated the likely employment composition of the broader Eastern Waterfront by industry
sector. This assumed allocation of employment has been informed by both the baseline development
program identified and the types of buildings proposed, as well as the current composition of
employment within various other employment nodes across the City of Toronto13. Using this
background research, urbanMetrics has developed the following employment composition and
resulting job estimates by industry.
13 Nodes considered include: Financial District, Downtown Toronto, King-Parliament Secondary Plan, King-Spadina Secondary Plan, Liberty Village, Port Lands and the Health Sciences District. Data for the entire City of Toronto were also considered.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 33
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 2-6: Assumed Employment Composition by Industry (Baseline Scenario)
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.
Estimates shown includes additional “work from home” employment.
As shown, a significant portion of the potential future employment base in this area has assumed to
be represented within the Information and Cultural Industries; Professional, Scientific and Technical
Services; and a range of other service-based sectors, which is consistent with the focus on
employment within office, production/flex and other commercial type buildings.
34 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Operating Output
Relying on available Statistics Canada data, the total employment estimates identified for the Baseline
scenario (Figure 2-5) and the above employment composition assumptions (Figure 2-6), we have
determined the total operating output of the future employment base as part of the overall build-out
of the Eastern Waterfront. In particular, the total employment within each industry sector identified
has been multiplied by relevant GDP output per worker factors to estimate the total operating output
of this base upon full build-out of the area. Estimated at some $5.0 Billion, this figure has been used
as the main input for this portion of our economic impact analysis and represents the recurring
(annual) operating activities of the future businesses within the area.
Similar to the earlier graphics detailing the impacts of new building and infrastructure construction,
Figure 2-7 provides a summary as to the total economic impacts derived from the annual operating
activities in the Eastern Waterfront under the baseline scenario.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 35
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 2-7: Economic Impact Summary – Annual Operating Output (Baseline Scenario)
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. Includes development throughout entire Eastern Waterfront.
36 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Property Tax Revenues
Property tax revenues and assessed values have been calculated for all properties throughout the
Eastern Waterfront, based on the assumed phasing and proposed nature of the new buildings in this
area. Future assessment values have been estimated based on assessed value per square foot
averages for other comparable properties along the Toronto waterfront and in other nearby
neighbourhoods. Subsequently, annual property tax estimates have been developed based on an
application of current 2018 municipal tax rates for each asset class.
Figure 2-8 summarizes the total property tax revenues that can be expected to be generated by new
development within each of the key geographies identified in the Eastern Waterfront, upon full build-
out. In Phases 1 and 2, these recurring benefits amount to a total of some $111.6 Million on an
annual basis, to be realized at the ultimate build-out of these phases in 2050.
Similarly, Figure 2-9 provides an illustration as to how these municipal revenues could ultimately grow
over the full planning horizon for the Eastern Waterfront on a cumulative basis. As shown, during the
period between 2025 and 2050, new development within the subject lands will have generated a total
of some $1.2 Billion.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 37
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 2-8: Recurring (Annual) Property Tax Revenues (Baseline Scenario)
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on City of Toronto property tax rates and estimates of future assessment values for full
build-out program of the Eastern Waterfront. Estimates relate to new buildings only, as well as some selected buildings
which are expected to remain throughout the redevelopment process, per the baseline scenario assumptions.
Figure 2-9: Cumulative Property Tax Revenues, 2025 – 2050 (Baseline Scenario)
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on City of Toronto property tax rates and estimates of future assessment values for full
build-out program of the Eastern Waterfront. Estimates relate to new buildings only, as well as some selected buildings
which are expected to remain throughout the redevelopment process, per the baseline scenario assumptions.
38 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
3.0 Sidewalk Labs Scenario
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 39
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
3.1 Development Program The Scenario 2 development program has been established exclusively by the SWL development team
in collaboration with their other relevant project consultants and based on input from external
stakeholders. Various background information and underlying assumptions relating to the Baseline
development scenario considered in this study have been made available for reference to SWL,
however urbanMetrics was not involved directly in the creation of the SWL development program,
nor the corresponding cost estimates and residential/employment yields. Where applicable,
urbanMetrics has relied on SWL to provide required statistical inputs and assumptions that reflect
their overall vision for the Eastern Waterfront and the unique set of land uses identified (e.g., “stoa”
and “loft” spaces, etc.). Therefore, urbanMetrics’ role has been to provide an independent analysis as
to the unique economic impacts that could ultimately be generated through the realization of the
vision articulated by SWL.
SWL’s vision for the Eastern Waterfront represents a significant departure from that envisioned in the
Baseline scenario outlined in Section 2.0. Based on the information provided by SWL, the following
summarizes a number of the key highlights of their vision:
• SWL has proposed an inclusive, high-density, technologically driven community that reflects
forward-looking trends in transportation, housing and use-types. This community will be
comprised of residents from a range of socio-economic backgrounds, and at various life
stages.
• Technologically informed investments in infrastructure are proposed that will have the ability
to actively manage demand in order to produce more sustainable and efficient outcomes.
• To that end, the SWL development plan, as proposed, envisions some 53,000 residents
occupying 35,000 residential units in the Eastern Waterfront. Amongst these units will be a
notable mix of ownership and rental offerings, in addition to non-market housing designated
for various levels of the affordability spectrum.
• Almost 44,000 permanent jobs are expected to be supported across the Eastern Waterfront.
The majority of these jobs are expected to be office-based uses; however, a significant amount
of retail-commercial employment will also be provided, among various other social and
production-based employment activities.
• SWL envisions a full build-out of Phase 1 and Phase 2 of the project to be completed by 2040,
representing a significantly accelerated development timeline relative to the Baseline scenario
presented in Section 2.0.
• SWL supports the creation of a comprehensive LRT network throughout the Eastern
Waterfront, to be delivered on an accelerated timeline. To assist with the implementation of
40 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
this network, SWL has proposed optional financing support for the LRT expansion in order to
accelerate the delivery of a comprehensive transit network serving the development.
• SWL envisions the development of an Urban Innovation Cluster in the broader Eastern
Waterfront. Space provided to foster the growth and development of local technology-
oriented start-ups, academic institutions, research institutions and experimental pop-ups will
be included. This investment is intended to facilitate the emergence of Toronto’s Eastern
Waterfront as a global leader in Urban Innovation. Furthermore, SWL has proposed relocating
Google’s Canadian headquarters to the Eastern Waterfront as part of the development of
Phase 2.
• SWL has proposed a new use type—termed “Loft” space—as part of their vision for the
Eastern Waterfront. The Loft use type is intended to be driven by flexibility and modularity,
ensuring that as market trends and consumer needs change over time, the physical space can
be responsive and adapt to different uses without requiring major changes to a building’s
physical footprint or layout. Approximately 15% of the total gross floor in SWL’s build program
is designated as Loft space, totalling some 5.0 million square feet of readily convertible space
that can actively respond to market trends and local needs. SWL refers to this approach to
flexibility in design as “Radical Mixed Use”.
• The development is planned to be primarily constructed using tall timber, sourced as much as
possible from Canadian forests. In addition to the environmental, sustainability and efficiency
opportunities afforded by tall timber construction techniques, this initiative would represent
the largest timber-based development in the world.
Additional detail as to the unique economic and social benefits of Tall Timber, the proposed Urban
Innovation Cluster and design flexibility have been provided in Section 4.0 of this report.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 41
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 3-1: Summary of Key Statistics – Development Program (SWL Vision)
Quayside Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
4,500 Residents 3,900 Employees 2,800 Units 2.6 Million (sq ft) 2026 $1.6 Billion
Phase 1
Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
4,500 Residents 3,900 Employees 2,800 Units 2.6 Million (sq ft) 2026 $1.6 Billion
Keating West Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
5,000 Residents 2,500 Employees 3,000 Units 3.5 Million (sq ft) 2029 $1.7 Billion
Keating East Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
5,000 Residents 5,500 Employees 3,600 Units 3.4 Million (sq ft) 2037 $2.0 Billion
Villiers Island Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
11,000 Residents 11,000 Employees 7,000 Units 6.9 Million (sq ft) 2032 $3.9 Billion
42 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Polson Quay Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
17,000 Residents 11,500 Employees 11,500 Units 9.7 Million (sq ft) 2040 $5.4 Billion
McCleary District Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
10,500 Residents 10,000 Employees 7,000 Units 6.7 Million (sq ft) 2034 $3.2 Billion
Total Phase 2* Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
48,500 Residents 40,500 Employees 32,000 Units 30.2 Million (sq ft) 2040 $16.3 Billion
Grand Total (Phase 1 + Phase 2)
Population: Employment: Number of Units: Gross Floor Area: Completion Date: Construction Cost:
53,000 Residents 44,200 Employees 34,800 Units 32.8 Million (sq ft) 2040 $17.9 Billion
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based primarily on development concept information obtained from Sidewalk Labs and other input assumptions developed by urbanMetrics. NOTE: Gross Floor Area figures include existing space identified to be maintained. Total construction costing shown is
comprised of both hard and soft costs. Numbers may not add up due to rounding.
*Phase 1 includes: Quayside; Phase 2 includes: Keating West, Keating East, Villiers Island, Polson Quay & McCleary District.
Grand Total (Eastern Waterfront) includes the Phase 1 Phase 2 lands.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 43
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
3.2 Assumptions In addition to the common and equivalent analytical assumptions outlined in Section 2.2, the
following must also be considered as uniquely relevant to the vision articulated by SWL for the
Eastern Waterfront.
• SWL Development Concept – Development figures (i.e. total floor area estimates, detailed
allocations by land use) and subsequent supporting assumptions (i.e. population, employment,
construction costs, development timing and phasing etc.) have been obtained directly from
Sidewalk Labs. These figures have been independently derived by SWL, and reflect their vision
for the ultimate build-out of the Eastern Waterfront. urbanMetrics has utilized the figures
provided as the underlying basis for our economic impact analysis, plus the accompanying
reporting presented herein. For the purposes of this analysis, figures provided by SWL are
assumed to provide an appropriate and accurate representation of the composition, delivery
and costing of the project, as planned. As the development concept continues to be refined,
input construction costs may be subject to change. The figures cited throughout this report are
assumed to provide an accurate representation of the magnitude of expenditure and
economic impact anticipated in realizing SWL’s ultimate vision.
• Municipal Rates – Based on the build-out program and supplementary information provided
by SWL, urbanMetrics has estimated the potential municipal revenue that may accrue to the
City of Toronto. Rates for property tax revenues, development charges and planning fees have
all been determined based on current City of Toronto rates and ratios for 2018.
• Employment Composition – Based on information related to the allocation of commercial
space, specific planned investments/initiatives and marketing of the Eastern Waterfront (e.g.,
the proposed Urban Innovation Cluster, Google’s proposed Canadian HQ Relocation, etc.), as
well as conversations with representatives of SWL, urbanMetrics has developed an
understanding of the anticipated composition of employment uses throughout the Eastern
Waterfront. In conjunction with our understanding of current employment patterns in various
other comparable employment districts throughout the United States, urbanMetrics has
estimated the unique employment allocation by industry category for the Eastern Waterfront.
For the purposes of developing a high-level understanding as to the potential ongoing
economic impacts of this local labour force, our allocation is assumed to provide an accurate
and reasonable representation of the potential future composition of employment within the
fully built-out community.
44 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
3.3 One Time Impacts (Construction)
Building Construction
Based on the results of our economic impact analysis—for which our approach has been outlined in
Section 1.4 and Appendix A at the end of this document—the economic impacts of the full build-out
of SWL’s vision for the Eastern Waterfront would generate significant economic value across the
economies of Toronto, Ontario and Canada. A significant portion of this revenue would be realized in
the City of Toronto, providing direct benefit to existing businesses and services.
The total value of construction throughout the development plan has been estimated at some $17.9
Billion, inclusive of both Hard Construction Costs and Soft Costs, as defined in Section 2.3 of this
document. This total capital spending would be shared among Sidewalk Labs, other real estate
developers/partners, other potential investors, and lenders, with third-party equity and debt
representing the bulk of the spending over time
As detailed below, the one-time construction expenditures associated with the build-out of SWL’s
vision of the development concept—including direct, indirect and induced impacts—will generate:
• ±$17.6 Billion in value added to the Canadian economy ($12.8 Billion in Toronto);
• ±135,900 full-time person years of employment (103,000 in Toronto)14,15;
• ±$11.0 Billion in labour income ($8.5 Billion in Toronto); and,
• ±$7.1 Billion in revenues to the three levels of government, in the form of personal tax,
corporate tax, and other taxes16 (with approximately $1.9 Billion available at the municipal
level in Toronto).
14 These employment figures represent the full-time, full-year jobs generated by the intial direct capital investment in
buiding construction, as well as the indirect and induced impacts that are spread more broadly throughout the regional,
provincial and national economies. For the types of expenditures analyzed in this portion of our study, the employment
figures represent total years of full-time employment (e.g., one job identified represent the equivalent to one person
working full-time for the duration of one year).
15 Employment impacts and related multipliers have been adjusted (i.e., deflated) to reflect more accurate annual income statistics available for the City of Toronto and Province of Ontario.
16 Other taxes include: Federal Trading Profits, Federal Gas Tax, Federal Excise Tax, Federal Duty Tax, Federal
Environmental Tax, Federal Air Transportation Tax, Federal Sales Tax, Import Duties, Federal Taxes on Production,
Provincial Environment Tax, Provincial Gallon Tax, Provincial Trading Profits, Provincial Gas Tax, Provincial Amusement Tax,
Other Provincial Consumption Taxes, Provincial Sales Tax, Provincial harmonized Sales Tax, Provincial Taxes on Production,
Municipal Amusement Tax, Municipal Sales Tax and Municipal Taxes on Production.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 45
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
The infographic in Figure 3-2, provides a similar overview and illustration as to the unique economic
impacts resulting from the construction of the entirety of the vision outlined by SWL. A more detailed
table of the specific direct, indirect and induced impacts across various geographies, has been
included in Appendix B.
See Appendix B for a more detailed economic impact summary tables.
46 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 3-2: Economic Impact Summary – Building Construction (SWL Vision)
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. Includes development throughout entire Eastern Waterfront.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 47
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Infrastructure
Beyond the economic benefits associated with the construction of the various buildings throughout
the Eastern Waterfront, a significant investment will be required to provide the underlying
infrastructure necessary to adequately support the new communities. Additionally, existing
infrastructure must be upgraded to position the subject lands in order to accommodate the scale and
intensity of investment proposed across the Eastern Waterfront.
The SWL development scenario also proposes a number of notable deviations from the traditional
method of infrastructure provision seen across the City of Toronto and elsewhere across North
America. Although the quality of services and physical standards are intended to meet or exceed
those of the City of Toronto, SWL has proposed a range of additional innovative and technologically
driven infrastructure investments that may require higher initial capital outlays. Similarly, SWL
supports the need for a comprehensive LRT network for the Eastern Waterfront, and has proposed
optional support in the upfront financing of this infrastructure to offset the initial capital cost.
Based on estimates provided by SWL as part of their own internal infrastructure costing, the related
investment required for the build-out of the Eastern Waterfront has been valued at some $5.2 Billion.
This upfront and one-time capital investment in infrastructure includes expenditures relating to
sitework, civil infrastructure, public realm improvements, bridges, stormwater management,
thermal/power grid implementation, road management, as well as the proposed extension of Light
Rail Transit (LRT) service along Queens Quay East, among other relevant spending. We note that as
the ultimate development concept evolves through broader community engagement and municipal
planning processes, and as understanding of the costs associated with providing these unique
amenities, the ultimate infrastructure investment figure may change. However, the figure cited above
is believed to be sufficiently accurate for the purposes of this type of economic impact report, and
any potential difference in actual costs would represent a relatively insignificant deviation.
Similar to the findings presented in the previous subsection for building construction impacts, the
following outlines the key economic impacts associated with this level of infrastructure spending
under the Sidewalk Toronto vision.
48 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 3-3: Economic Impact Summary – Infrastructure (SWL Vision)
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. Includes development throughout entire Eastern Waterfront.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 49
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Municipal Fees
In addition to the more significant one-time and nation-wide benefits identified in the previous
subsections of this report, the full build-out of Phases 1 and 2 of the SWL vision would also generate
significant one-time revenues to the City of Toronto in the form of development charges and
associated planning application fees. As shown in Figure 3-4, the full build out of the Eastern
Waterfront would yield approximately $967 Million in one-time municipal revenues, based on 2018
rates17. Phase 1 would account for some $61 Million of the total one-time municipal revenues
realized as part of the SWL vision.
Figure 3-4: One-Time Municipal Revenues Summary (SWL Vision)
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on City of Toronto 2018 Planning Fees.
17 Includes development charges, Official Plan amendment and Zoning By-law amendment fees. Estimate does not include Plan of Subdivision, Plan of Condominium, nor any other one-time municipal fees. Fee estimate is subject to change based on the ultimate development concepts advanced to the municipality, as well as the unit composition and overall mix of uses proposed.
50 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
3.4 Recurring Impacts (Occupancy)
Permanent Employment
In addition to one-time employment generated through the planning and construction of the Eastern
Waterfront, Figure 3-5 identifies the potential permanent on-site employment that could be
accommodated within the various newly constructed and/or renovated existing buildings throughout
SWL’s vision. These employment estimates are derived from the total build-out concepts identified
for the subject lands, as well as average employment density factors applied to each of the major land
use categories identified.
As shown, full build-out of the proposed SWL concept could ultimately accommodate a total of some
44,200 permanent jobs upon full build-out, with a significant amount to be concentrated in office-
based job categories. Almost 4,000 of these jobs would be accommodated in Phase 1 (Quayside).
Figure 3-5: Permanent On-Site Employment (SWL Vision)
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. Work at home employment calculated separately from permanent on-site jobs.
Based on the employment estimates shown above and as input to our analysis of the ongoing
operating output of the future employment base in this area, we have estimated the likely
employment composition of the broader Eastern Waterfront by industry sector. This assumed
employment allocation has been adjusted from that shown in Section 2.4 for the Baseline scenario.
The assumed employment composition has been adjusted based on urbanMetrics’ understanding of
the broader vision for the area, developed through detailed materials and engagement sessions with
various members of the SWL team. In addition, commitments made by SWL as part of the project
proposal (i.e. proposal to relocate Google’s Canadian Headquarters, establishment of an Urban
Innovation Cluster) have provided additional context for our assumptions. From this understanding,
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 51
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
and based on precedents across other jurisdictions and notable new technology-focused employment
districts across the United States, urbanMetrics has made assumptions regarding the likely
composition of employment uses by industry category across the Eastern Waterfront, shown in Figure
3-6.
Figure 3-6: Assumed Employment Composition by Industry (SWL Vision)
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.
Estimates shown include additional “work from home” employment.
As shown, increases to the future employment base in this area have been allocated to the following
industry categories: Professional, Scientific and Technical Services; Management of Companies and
Enterprises; and Health Care and Social Assistance. This is consistent with the vision articulated by
SWL, and the proposed breakdown of non-residential use types.
52 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Operating Output
Relying on available Statistics Canada data, the total employment estimates identified for SWL’s vision
(Figure 2-5) and the above employment composition assumptions (Figure 2-6), we have determined
the total operating output of the future employment base as part of the overall build-out of the
Eastern Waterfront. In particular, the total employment within each industry sector identified has
been multiplied by relevant GDP output per worker factors to estimate the total operating output of
this area. Estimated at some $13.2 Billion for Phase 1 and Phase 2, this figure has been used as the
main input for this portion of our economic impact analysis and represents the recurring (annual)
operating activities of the future businesses within the area.
Similar to the earlier graphics detailing the impacts of new building and infrastructure construction,
Figure 2-7 provides a summary as to the total economic impacts derived from the annual operating
activities of the SWL vision for the Eastern Waterfront.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 53
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 3-7: Economic Impact Summary – Annual Operating Output (SWL Vision)
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. Includes development throughout entire Eastern Waterfront.
54 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Property Tax Revenues
Based on estimated assessment values, and 2018 City of Toronto tax rates, we have developed annual
property tax revenue estimates for each asset class. As shown in Figure 3-8, the development of
Phase 1 and 2 of the SWL vision is expected to generate some $150 Million in annual property tax
revenue by the year 2040.18
Similarly, Figure 3-9 provides an illustration as to how these municipal revenues could ultimately grow
over the full planning horizon for the Eastern Waterfront on a cumulative basis. As shown, during the
period between 2025 and 2040 (i.e., the estimated completion date for all development under the
SWL development scenario), new development within the subject lands will have generated a total of
some $1.6 Billion. During the extended period from 2025 to 2050 (i.e., the corresponding date of
completion for the equivalent Phase 2 geography under the Baseline scenario), new development will
have generated a cumulative total of some $3.3 Billion.
Figure 3-8: Recurring (Annual) Property Tax Revenues (SWL Vision)
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on City of Toronto property tax rates and estimates of future assessment values for the
full build-out program of the Eastern Waterfront. Estimates relate to new buildings only, as well as some selected
buildings which are expected to remain throughout the redevelopment process, per the Baseline scenario assumptions.
18 This analysis does not consider the eligibility of the subject developments for any property tax rebate programs currently offered by the City of Toronto. As such, the property tax estimates shown throughout this report represent an estimate of the total property taxes that could be payable to the City over the time periods presented, in the absence of any discounts or rebates.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 55
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 3-9: Cumulative Property Tax Revenues, 2025-2050 (SWL Vision)
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on City of Toronto property tax rates and estimates of future assessment values for the
full build-out program of the Eastern Waterfront. Estimates relate to new buildings only, as well as some selected
buildings which are expected to remain throughout the redevelopment process, per the Baseline scenario assumptions.
3.5 Other Benefits In addition to the main one-time and ongoing economic benefits highlighted above for the SWL
development scenario, the vision outlined by SWL for the Eastern Waterfront could also bring a
variety of spin-off benefits relating to broader city-building initiatives, incorporating new
technological advancements into urban development, and other efficiencies. A few of these benefits
have been summarized below.
• SWL has proposed that full build-out of both Phases 1 and 2 of their vision will be completed
by 2040, representing a significant acceleration to developing one of the most underutilized
areas in Toronto, thereby maximizing the economic value associated with ongoing flood-
proofing initiatives and other government investments. Relative to the baseline scenario, this
expedited timeline would facilitate the earlier delivery and operation of public transit
investments, capture additional property tax revenues, as well as produce a more immediate
supply of significant housing in close proximity to downtown Toronto.
• SWL has prioritized a network of LRT infrastructure to provide improved transit accessibility
to the immediate areas, as well as benefitting residents and employees throughout other parts
56 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
of the City/Region that rely on the existing transportation network. Furthermore, SWL has
proposed working collaboratively with local governments to explore how they could play an
optional supporting role in a financing scheme that would facilitate expedited construction of
this expanded LRT infrastructure.
• SWL’s commitment to developing the new communities in the Eastern Waterfront with a
focus on tall timber construction represents an opportunity for the City of Toronto to become
a global leader in sustainable building technology. Furthermore, the SWL project could
catalyze the development of a Cross-Laminated-Timber (CLT) industry in Southern Ontario that
not only captures a larger portion of this type of production in Canada currently, but also
presents opportunities to increase forestry and manufacturing-related jobs in the coming
years. This could ultimately support similar projects throughout North America based on the
precedent set by SWL.
• The SWL development proposal contemplates the introduction of a flexible design use format
identified as “Loft” space. This space is intended to be modular in nature, and able to be easily
converted from residential to non-residential uses as market demand dictates. This could bring
with it a number of related spin-off benefits, including reduced down-time between tenants
and facilitating growth among local businesses.
Section 4.0 provides a more detailed discussion of several of these key features and differentiating
factors of the SWL proposal. In particular, it explores the unique economic benefits and potentially
legacy impacts of this type of development, with particular focus on: the use of Tall Timber
construction techniques, the presence of a new Urban Innovation Cluster in the Eastern Waterfront,
the proposed relocation of Google’s Canadian Headquarters, as well as the adoption of Flexibility in
Design.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 57
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
4.0 Differentiating Factors
58 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Sidewalk Toronto represents a new paradigm for Toronto. And the world is watching.
From an economic development lens, there are three distinguishing features that we believe
underpin the advantages that SWL bring to the Canadian economy. These differentiating factors have
the potential to catapult Toronto, Ontario and Canada into a clear leadership position in terms of
pioneering scalable solutions that address complex global challenges facing cities and communities of
all sizes.
Specifically, the Sidewalk Toronto project will:
1. Solidify Toronto’s pedigree as the gold-standard for responsible implementation of urban
innovation technologies and practices, which promote sustainability and mitigate climate
change.
2. Leverage Canada’s position as a global forestry-products powerhouse for the
development of an internationally significant concentration of expertise in high-rise, tall-
timber construction.
3. Establish a new pedestrian-focused city-building template that supports flexibility,
adaptability and incrementalism.
4.1 Urban Innovation Cluster / Google Canadian
HQ The City of Toronto is revered the world over for its high quality of life and its competitive business
climate. Toronto is widely regarded as one of the most desirable and most dynamic cities in the world.
Canadians are proud of the leadership role they play on the international stage, and the City of
Toronto is a mirror reflection of the global perspective that Canadians maintain. The fact that Toronto
was chosen by Sidewalk Labs as its preferred partner is a testament not only to the global influence
Canada plays, but more importantly its clear commitment to sustainability, which builds on the pillars
of innovation, design-excellence, good-governance, as well as openness and transparency. These
attributes provide the backdrop for transforming the City of Toronto as a world leading urban
innovation cluster.
Toronto is a city defined by its people and its neighbourhoods. It is also defined by
intense growth.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 59
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Among North American cities, Toronto is home to
one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas. Over
the past five years, Toronto has, on average, added
more than 100,000 persons per year. In absolute
terms, Toronto added more residents than New
York, a city which supports a base population 4.5
times Toronto’s size.
Migration continues to play an important
role in the ascendency of Toronto as an
inclusive, global-minded city.
According to the 2016 Census, almost half of
Torontonians were born outside of Canada. Among
its North American peers Toronto has a far deeper
global reach, with almost 45% of its population
being foreign-born.
From a quality of life perspective Toronto is
consistently rated as a top-tier city.
Mercer’s 2018 Quality of Live Index, for example
ranks Toronto ahead of all major American cities, including San Francisco, New York, Boston, Chicago,
Seattle and Washington DC. PwC recently ranked Toronto as the third best city to live and work
(behind London and Singapore, ahead of Paris and Amsterdam). The Intelligence Unit of the
Economist ranked Toronto as the safest city in North America and the fourth safest in the world, plus
the 2018 Innovative Cities Index places Toronto as the eight most innovative city, based on a series of
over 160 key indicators.
Thanks to an international perspective and deep connections to overseas markets,
Toronto has emerged as a place where ideas and innovations are celebrated – although
not always fully implemented.
Over the past several decades, Toronto has quietly—yet deliberately—built its research capacity
through strategic investments in key areas such as health sciences, IT and mobile communications.
Toronto has also established a globally significant market presence in the field of artificial intelligence
and machine learning, thanks in large part to the pioneering efforts and influence of Geoffrey Hinton,
commonly referred to as the Godfather of AI.
Toronto is home to several top-tier universities and research institutes that continue to
grow in prominence and depth.
SOURCE: Toronto Global, 2017.
Figure 4-1: Population Change, 2011-2016
Figure 4-2: Percent of Foreign-Born Population
SOURCE: Toronto Global, 2017.
60 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Toronto’s top academic institutions (University of Toronto, Ryerson University and York University)
and its leading research hubs (MaRS, Vector Institute for AI, DMZ-Ryerson, and others) feed a wide
pipeline for talent and technology transfer.
According to CBRE (2017), Toronto was rated as the 6th
most dynamic labour market for technology-related
talent in North America, and 3rd overall when it comes
to the share of its employment base engaged in
technology-related occupations.
Toronto has a diversified economic base that is
anchored by eight key industry pillars, including:
financial services, film and media, transportation,
healthcare, education, construction and food
production. This diversified base provides the platform
for a new generation of cross-disciplinary innovators that help keep Canadian businesses at the
forefront of global markets.
SWL Supports Canada’s Innovation Agenda
The Government of Canada is firmly committed to an innovation agenda that supports business-led
job creation through targeted investments in infrastructure, training, research and development,
commercialization and targeted funding programs designed to allow innovators to achieve scale and
success.
As part of its global commitment to combat climate change, the federal government has established a
12-year plan, Canada’s Implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which
outlines its support for accelerated infrastructure investments that make Canadian cities and towns
more inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable. To this end, the Government of Canada has earmarked
$180 billion of investment stimulus to support priority investments in transit (including traffic
management), affordable housing (including other social infrastructure) and green infrastructure
(including clean water, renewable energy and solid waste recovery).
As a rapidly growing urban region, Toronto’s “big-city” problems require bold, multi-
layered solutions that alleviate specific social, economic and environmental challenges,
especially those which erode the prospects for income equality and prosperity.
The ability to address these challenges head-on and develop scalable, transferable solutions
represents one of the core aspirations of the Sidewalk Toronto project.
Figure 4-3: Tech Labour Concentration
SOURCE: CBRE Group, 2017.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 61
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Toronto as an Urban Innovation Leader
Toronto is a progressive city that understands the importance of compact urban form,
good design and strong civic leadership.
Reinvestment in older central areas of Toronto such as Liberty Village, King-Spadina, Corktown and
the Distillery District have resulted in new residential neighbourhoods and dynamic business zones.
History has shown that these areas have evolved quickly, attracting the interest of leading-edge
companies and important cultural enterprises. Quickly, momentum begins to shift to residential uses,
as workers seek housing options closer to where they work.
While tourists are attracted to Toronto by its modernity, safety and big-city flair, talent—or human
capital—is attracted and retained by the allure of strong learning institutions, a dynamic business
environment and liveable urban neighbourhoods.
Over the past two decades Toronto has become a decidedly more urban city.
The housing market has shifted from predominantly ground oriented townhomes and midrise
buildings to (almost entirely) high-rise apartment structures. Since 2000, nearly 215,000 new
apartment units have been completed in Toronto, yet this number continues to fall well-short of
market demand. Housing continues to be a major issue in Toronto despite an unprecedented and
prolonged period of intense residential construction activity.
As of July 2018, Toronto has more active high-
rise construction cranes (97) than any other
city in North America. In fact, there are
more cranes in active duty in Toronto than
New York, Washington and Boston
combined. According to the RBL Quarterly
Crane Index, more than 80% of the cranes
in active duty support residential-oriented
development. Looking forward, RBL
identify upwards of 400 additional high-rise
projects in the city’s development pipeline.
Toronto’s intense focus on urban-
living, has informally—yet very
clearly—transformed Toronto into a
living lab where various players, including: developers, lenders, policy makers,
entrepreneurs, designers and tradespeople are all pushing the innovation envelope to
support and fulfill market growth prospects.
Figure 4-4: Crane Counts in North America
SOURCE: RBL Quarterly Crane Index, 2018.
62 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
A key indicator for Toronto’s ambition as an urban innovation hub is tied to its higher-learning
institutions. Toronto’s two downtown universities act as a magnet for talent and innovation.
Increasingly, Toronto’s universities are drawing on students and researchers pulled from major
international markets in China, India, Europe, Latin America and Africa.
The University of Toronto, for example, has recently formalized its ambition to become a global
centre for excellence in urban research. In 2018, the University launched the School of Cities, an
initiative which brings together over 220 researchers and academics focussed on: innovation and
enterprise, infrastructure and sustainability, healthy cities, socio-economics, urban policy, and
governance. Similarly, in 2018, Ryerson University also launched the Centre for Urban Innovation, a
collaborative research facility focussed on: alternative energy, water management, food production,
body metrics and human health, data analytics and urban infrastructure.
The combined intent of these two downtown universities underscores the growing public interest in,
and expectation for more sustainable and equitable solutions to complex urban problems. It also
demonstrates the growing demand for occupations connected to urban planning, community
development, architecture, transportation and other city-building disciplines.
Digital solutions play an increasingly central role in shaping city structures and the way
residents interact directly with the people and services available in their community.
The arrival and rapid adoption of sensors in private spaces (homes, office and vehicles) combined with
the ubiquity of smartphones and other mobile devices will inevitably lead to broad-based adoption of
internet-enabled goods and services in cities throughout the world, including those delivered by, or
on behalf of government.
The imminent arrival of 5G networks will clear the pathway for a new layer of data sophistication,
increasing the bandwidth of smartphones and sensors to deliver important alerts, insights and actions
that will facilitate faster and more effective services to the residents, including: healthcare, public
safety, security, energy and mobility.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 63
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
A 2018 study conducted by the McKinsey Global Institute
determined that the deployment of so-called smart-
city technologies could improve key quality-of- life
indicators by upwards of 10% to 30%. These
improvements directly and indirectly translate into
better human outcomes, including: the number of
lives saved, reduced travel times, shorter hospital
wait times, lower incidences of crime and reduced
smog levels.
The extent to which Toronto will openly
embrace all smart city interventions is still a
matter of debate.
Nonetheless the promise of new urban technologies
enabled by 5G will certainly help to advance key
policy objectives designed to mitigate congestion,
public health and environmental challenges.
The City of Toronto has recently implemented
TransformTO an ambitious plan intended to reduce
local greenhouse gas emissions, improve health, grow the economy, and improve social equity.
TransformTO provides a clearly articulated road map—including specific targets—for reducing waste
and improving the lives of all Torontonians through better decision-making.
Toronto’s commitment to climate change solutions has helped advance the prospects
for a growing clean-tech sector comprised of firms engaged in water management,
waste reduction and alternative energy solutions.
The development of urban innovation systems requires a myriad of actors. Governments acting in
isolation are not adequately equipped to deliver the innovations needed to fully support cost
effective service delivery. Similarly, major building owners and landlords rarely possess all of the in-
house expertise to develop advanced building management systems, such as those designed to make
elevators run more efficiently or heating controls that reduce energy.
Figure 4-5: Smart City Benefits
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute
64 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
SWL as a City-building Catalyst
Over the past year, the Sidewalk Toronto project has garnered unprecedented
attention from international media, bloggers, tech-enthusiasts and city-watchers alike.
From an economic development perspective, the level of public discourse around the Sidewalk
Toronto initiative amplifies the message that this city has the energy, focus and discipline needed to
effectively integrate shared and open-data platforms that fully uphold the integrity of individual
privacy rights.
Externally, Sidewalk Toronto has, and will continue to, reaffirm the Toronto’s brand position as a Top-
10 global destination for investment, innovation and talent recruitment. A deeper focus on urban
innovation, which broadly includes clean-tech, prop-tech and transport-tech, will draw students,
researchers, innovators, entrepreneurs as well as seasoned business leaders to the Toronto market.
On the ground, the Sidewalk initiative will re-invigorate a part of Toronto’s iconic
waterfront that few residents have actually visited.
In the short-term, the project will bring new life and animation to an otherwise neglected part of
Toronto. In a similar—albeit radically different way—to the nearby Distillery District, redevelopment
of the Eastern Waterfront will advance the transformation of under-utilized industrial assets, as well
as preserving and strengthening the importance of the film district as a key emerging industry in the
Eastern Waterfront. Quayside and the various other sub-districts throughout the Eastern Waterfront
represent entirely new city precincts with their own unique character and identity. These areas will
evolve and develop over time as an integrated part of the urban fabric of Toronto, a place where
Torontonians will live, work and play.
The Sidewalk Toronto intiative also carries with it a unique opportunity to develop
several new nodes of employment activity.
A central feature of the Sidewalk Toronto vision includes the proposed relocation of the Google
Canada HQ from its current location in the financial core to a new site in the Eastern Waterfront area.
The proposed relocation of Google Canada’s headquarters provides a foundational platform (a
business anchor) for other tech-focused businesses to play a collaborative role in the creation of a
new tech cluster with immediate legitimacy and draw.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 65
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
4.2 Tall Timber It is no secret that Canada is a global forestry powerhouse.
Its vast territory accounts for about 10% of the world’s total forestry cover, and upwards of 30% of
the world’s total boreal forests. Canada is also a world leader when it comes to ensuring innovative
and sustainable forestry management practices that safeguard our wood resources for future
generations.
Canada’s forest industry feeds a global market for lumber and value-added wood products such as
architectural and advanced structural components. Canada’s forestry sector represents about 1.3% of
the national economy and functions as a
critical economic driver for hundreds of
small, medium and Indigenous communities
across Canada.
Today, Canada’s forest industry directly
employs approximately 210,000 workers
from coast to coast. Thanks to solid
economic gains in the US economy,
Canada’s wood manufacturing sector
(including producers of lumber, plywood,
veneers, etc.) has shown steady signs of
growth following the collapse of the US
housing market in 2008.
The pulp and paper industry, however, has
seen a systematic decline, as consumers move
away from newsprint and other paper products. Over the past decade Canada’s pulp and paper
industry has seen nearly one-third of its workforce—more than 30,000 jobs—eliminated as a result of
macro-shifts to paperless forms of communication. Many communities in Northern Ontario in
particular have struggled as a direct result of production cutbacks and mills closures related to the
pulp and paper sector.
Despite some challenges for the forestry sector as a whole, the general outlook for wood products
remains relatively healthy as new applications and new markets for wood emerge. As the world
advances toward a more carbon-neutral position, the prospects for wood-based solutions are
generally seen as more desirable compared to more carbon-intensive materials such as steel,
concrete and plastic.
SOURCE: Ministry of Natural Resources, 2018.
Figure 4-6: Forestry Direct Employment, 2007-2017
66 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Tall Timber
Over the past 10-15 years, new technologies in wood manufacturing have enabled the
development of taller, stronger and more efficient building structures that leverage
both the aesthetic and ecological benefits of wood.
A new movement in architecture and building science continues to emerge, which is rapidly proving
the benefits of wood-oriented construction. The move to wood is not simply a function of the
ecological benefits and superior design properties of wood, but rather the economic and financial
benefits that wood provides relative to conventional steel and concrete options.
To date, the height of most tall-timber buildings has fallen somewhere in the range of eight to ten
stories; essentially a mid-rise building by Toronto standards. However, innovation and construction
practices have moved swiftly, and the size and complexity of tall-timber projects has grown
measurably. In a few short years, the number of timber-projects around the world has grown
substantially and building heights are now beginning to soar to previously unthinkable heights.
In 2017, the University of British Columbia established a new pinnacle for tall timber construction
with the delivery of a new 18-storey (53-metre) student residence. The project, Brock Commons, has
quickly achieved the status of an international best practice for tall timber construction not simply
because of the way it looks and feels, but also because of the speed with which it was built; a
remarkable 70 days.
Today, there are over 35 active tall timber construction projects on the books, including projects in
Tokyo, London, Chicago, Philadelphia, Stockholm, Paris, Vienna and Amsterdam. These projects range
in size from 20+ storeys in historic cities such as Amsterdam and Vienna, all the way to super-tall
structures comprising between 70 and 80 storeys in major metropolises like Chicago, London and
Tokyo.
As the tall timber industry takes-off, Canada should be in the ready-position to supply
not only design and engineering expertise, but also the structural wood materials and
componentry that will provide strength and stability to this fledgling enterprise.
Playing a central role in the supply chain for tall-timber construction—both domestically and
internationally—should be viewed by Canadian companies and industry representatives as a major
growth opportunity for the Canadian economy.
Building on the promise and momentum of tall-timber construction, the University of Toronto and
George Brown College co-created the Mass Timber Institute based in Toronto. This initiative was
established to help mobilize the forestry sector, building science experts and construction trade
representatives to build collaborative partnerships that will advance tall-timber construction practices
across Canada and internationally.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 67
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
The Ecological Case for Tall Timber
Aside from the obvious aesthetic qualities, the case for wood-based construction is deeply rooted in
the ecological integrity of wood. Wood is a natural resource that is 100% renewable and—unlike
other construction materials, namely steel and concrete—it actually stores carbon rather than
expending it into the atmosphere.
Case in point: the construction of a typical 100,000 square foot commercial building made of timber
would result in significantly less carbon emissions than its steel and concrete equivalent. The Wood
Product Council estimates that the direct carbon reductions for a new, modestly-sized 100,000 square
foot wood building would eliminate more than 700 metric tonnes of green house gas emissions. This
would be the equivalent to removal of 200 vehicles from the road for a period of one year.
The regenerative aspect of utilizing wood is also a compelling argument for taking advantage of wood-
based construction. The amount of wood fiber required to erect a 100,000 square foot tall-timber
structure—roughly 15,000 cubic feet—is regrown in Canada’s boreal forests in a matter of less than 2
minutes.
The Business Case for Tall Timber
As a renewable resource, SWL’s commitment to tall timber construction is supported by four key
economic benefits:
• Leveraging Domestic Wood Capacity
Canada’s forestry sector is currently operating well below its full production capacity. Structural
changes in demand for pulp and paper products have had a destabilizing impact on many resource
communities across Canada. Tall-timber has the potential to become an entirely new building-
materials subsector that will supply domestic, US and global markets.
• Industry Repatriation
Tall-timber builders in North America currently rely on a network of product suppliers, many of whom are situated in the European Union. Austria and Sweden, for example, are two countries that support a robust and innovative concentration of tall-timber suppliers, including leading fabricators of customized CLT and other wood-based mass timber components. The rapid deployment of tall timber construction on Toronto’s waterfront has the potential to directly support commercialization and innovation for a broad range of industry players within Canada’s domestic forestry and building sector. Our estimates suggest that the construction of the Sidewalk Toronto vision could require between 900,000 – 1,200,000 cubic metres of CLT. Over a 20-year build-out period, this would translate into an annual demand of 50,000-55,000 cubic metres of CLT. Based on typical CLT-factory outputs, this volume of material would support and necessitate 1.0 to 1.5 new production facilities just to support the SWL vision. In term of direct and indirect
68 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
employment, including manufacturing, sawmill, transport and logging jobs, the build-out of Phase 1 and Phase 2 of the Sidewalk Toronto project, as proposed, would support upwards of 2,500-person years of employment to supply the CLT materials on Toronto’s Eastern Waterfront. It is expected that these positions would be drawn, almost exclusively, from the Ontario labour market.
• Leading Innovation
While the number of tall-timber buildings globally is still relatively small, Canada’s forestry and
construction industries are extremely well-positioned to take a global leadership position in an
industry that is still very much in the early stages of development. Sidewalk Toronto has drawn
international attention because of its bold and ambitious commitment to wood construction. The
ability to realize this vision will require new products and novel construction innovations that have
the potential to become a new global standard for city-building.
• Speed to Market
Housing affordability in major urban centres such as Toronto is a growing crisis. Tall timber has the
potential to significantly reduce the overall costs of construction through faster and more efficient
development programs. Custom-designed and factory-built CLT-wood beams, as well as floors,
doors, windows and wall systems enable quick on-site construction. The advantages of rapid
construction enable developers and homebuilders to respond quickly to market needs, while at
the same time minimizing often-extensive disruptions (i.e. noise and traffic) on neighbouring
properties.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 69
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
4.3 Flexibility in Design / Radical Mixed Use Of all the exciting changes that have occurred in central Toronto over the past 25 years, one major
planning policy shift stands out as a watershed moment that has truly cemented Toronto’s status as a
North American leader in downtown revitalization and mixed-use thinking.
In 1997, the City of Toronto implemented
fundamental changes to its zoning bylaw that
enabled two languishing 19th-century
industrial areas located on the east and west
sides of the financial core to flourish by
eliminating many of the antiquated land-use
policy restrictions.
The two “Kings” started off as a pilot project in
the King-Spadina and King-Parliament in the
centre of Toronto as a planning intervention to
support the revitalization of five to eight
storey historic industrial buildings, as well as to
kick-start the redevelopment of an area with a
creeping, and what appeared at the time, to
be a chronic over-supply of surface parking
lots.
The plan to drastically reduce excessive layers of regimented land use restrictions in
the Two Kings paid off.
In the 20 years that have passed since the introduction of the Kings Regeneration Areas policy, the
City of Toronto has seen unparalleled central investment within the 400+ acre land areas it was
targeted to rehabilitate.
Over two short decades, the City has seen the construction of more than 50,000 residential units in
the Kings, with thousands more still in various stages of construction, approval and planning stages.
The value of building permits issued in the Kings has been estimated by City of Toronto officials to fall
somewhere in the order of $8 billion over the past two decades.
In terms of job growth, the Kings have become one of the most sought-after locations
for technology and communication companies in Toronto. The Kings are now a prized
area for companies of all shapes and sizes who are looking to provide “brick and beam”
workplaces that support the ambitions and aspirations of younger workers.
Figure 4-7: Location of King-Spadina/King-Parliament
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.
70 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
While employment has shown nearly 20% growth city-wide between 1996 and 2016, job growth is up
nearly 70% in the King-Spadina district and 30% in the King-Parliament district with more than 20,000
new jobs injected into these areas. Based on municipal data, over 52,000 people reportedly work in
the Kings, nearly 30% of them in the cultural, creative and technology-based occupations.
The transition of the Kings from languishing industrial no-go areas into thriving and highly successful
mixed-use districts did not happen without a series of small, incremental transitions in-between. The
liberalization of land uses in the mid-1990s simply enabled larger and more powerful waves of
tenants and space users to move into these districts. These businesses and individuals were able to
take advantage, reimagine and customize their spaces in ways that the original architects
commissioned in the 19th century would have never conceived.
The residents and businesses who ultimately re-discovered the benefits of big windows, large open
spaces and lofted ceilings during this period set the stage for success, but by no means did they
become the permanent gatekeepers and stewards of these spaces.
The Kings regeneration process has, and continues to, come in waves. These waves are established
and defined by constantly shifting cultural, generational and market changes. What seems growingly
apparent today is that these temporal changes are happening in more compressed and more intense
cycles.
As the pace of change in our society continues to modulate, big cities such as Toronto
need to be prepared for faster, more flexible and more responsive approaches that
enable these cycles to play out.
This doesn’t mean that everything is temporary, it simply means that flexibility by design should be
embedded into the way we build structures and urban spaces.
The Sidewalk Labs vision for the Eastern Waterfront is predicated on a new paradigm for city-planning
and design. The approach, at its core, embraces the need for flexibility to support ongoing and rapid
change rather than a plan that simply strives for fixed and static end-points.
From an economic development perspective, the Sidewalk Toronto project represents an opportunity
to achieve significant benefits for residents and business.
The notion of radical mixed use provides area inhabitants with the ability to grow and
adapt with their spaces rather than consume them for a limited, fixed period of time.
The Sidewalk Labs approach envisions an environment that is constantly evolving, without the need
for excessive rebuilding and redesign every time something changes.
SWL’s modularity and plug-and-play approach enables users and re-users of buildings and spaces to
adopt to temporal and seasonal shifts. The ability to work and live with agility allows individuals (and
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 71
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
government officials) to make space-related decisions in real-time, rather than constantly trying to
project out in five, ten, or thirty-year increments.
Making better informed decisions will enable those connected to communities
throughout the Eastern Waterfront to make real-time decisions that fit current
circumstances, rather than making ill-informed decisions, which may or may not play
out.
72 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
5.0 Tourism Impacts
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 73
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
In addition to quantifying the various economic impacts associated with the two potential
development scenarios identified for the Eastern Waterfront—as summarized in Sections 2.0 and
3.0—urbanMetrics has also undertaken a separate and distinct analysis to estimate the economic
impacts of tourism and related spending activities that can reasonably be attributed to the newly
developed lands under the SWL vision. Although it is extremely difficult to isolate and attribute
precise visitation estimates to the emergence of the Eastern Waterfront and its various sub-districts,
it is reasonable to assume that—at least at a high level—the full buildout of the community as
envisioned by SWL would realistically yield some additional tourism visitation to Toronto. This
visitation estimate would occur above and beyond any increased tourism associated with the
significant investments undertaken by Waterfront Toronto. These initiatives have driven significant
growth in visitation to the waterfront, which would be further increased by the realization of the
Sidewalk Labs vision. Increased tourism activity may ultimately be realized through “net new”
overnight visitation to the City among would-be travellers, or simply as a function of existing tourists
to the area spending an additional morning/afternoon in Toronto to experience the Eastern
Waterfront.
With the underlying assumption that Toronto’s Eastern Waterfront is developed per the vision
established by SWL, the area will undoubtedly attain national and international attention due to its
unique, technologically-driven approach to development and the one-of-a-kind nature of the new
communities being created. Notwithstanding the more immediate attraction of local amenities being
introduced (e.g., restaurants, cafes, shops, etc.), it is also likely that the SWL project will induce
additional tourism visits simply due to people’s heightened curiosity around new technologies and
urban innovations being implemented. In particular, we anticipate that this type of visitation could be
driven by urbanists, academics, policy-makers, as well as a range of other casual onlookers.
Overall, this innovative proposal will certainly add momentum to the already rapid growth in tourism
that Toronto has experienced in recent years.
5.1 Toronto Tourism Context To develop a more complete understanding as to how the development of a unique and innovative
neighbourhood in the Eastern Waterfront may influence tourism trends in Toronto in the coming
years, a profile of existing tourism activity in the City must first be established. From this baseline
understanding, we have been able to make additional assumptions relating to the potential extent of
future increases in tourism to the area, which are directly attributable to the future realization of
SWL’s vision for the Eastern Waterfront.
74 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Overview
In 2017, the City of Toronto saw the attraction of over 43 million tourists, marking a 3.6% annual
increase from 2016, and the highest figure ever recorded in the municipality. Toronto has emerged as
an international tourism leader in recent years, identified as the 7th most visited city in the Americas
in 2017 and registering some 4.5 million international visitors. Furthermore, international visitation is
forecast to expand to some 5.8 million by 202519.
Toronto is often regarded as a “City of Neighbourhoods”—referring to the unique character,
pedestrian friendly scale, and interesting shopping, food and cultural opportunities available in
communities such as Chinatown, Kensington Market, the Annex, Koreatown and Queen West. In
recent years, Waterfront Toronto’s investments along Queens Quay to beautify and enhance park
space, cycling and pedestrian infrastructure and community event programming have led to a
profound increase in visitation to the area. In addition to functioning itself as a major attraction, the
revitalized waterfront has effectively become a conduit that serves to connect several of Toronto’s
most significant individual attractions and destinations, including the CN Tower, Toronto Islands,
Scotiabank Arena, Sugar Beach and the Distillery District. As shown in Figure 5-3, there is clear
opportunity to extend the eastern edge of this corridor through to the Eastern Waterfront with a
completely redeveloped and one-of-a-kind new mixed-use neighbourhood.
19 SOURCE: Euromonitor International. 2017 Top 100 City Destinations Ranking.
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where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 5-1: Map of Key Tourist Destinations Along Toronto’s Waterfront
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. For illustrative purposes only.
Baseline Tourism Statistics
As shown in Figure 5-2, approximately one third (28.3%) of visitation to “Tourism Region 5”20 is
motivated by “pleasure”. Furthermore, an additional 42.3% of all visits are driven by visiting friends
and relatives21, representing the single most significant reason that individuals visit the Region.
In our opinion, it is unlikely that visitors whose primary purpose is to see friends and family will induce
additional “net new” tourism visitation to Toronto as a result of the development of the Eastern
Waterfront. However, it is conceivable that a significant portion of visitors whose primary purpose is
pleasure, business, or business conventions, will ultimately extend their stays. Similarly, it is possible
that additional trips will be incurred as a direct result of personal or commercial travel related to new
attractions and opportunities in the Eastern Waterfront.
20 RTO 5 includes the cities of Toronto, Brampton and Mississauga. 21 2017 tourism data does not include information on visitors from the United States. However, urbanMetrics has compared 2017 travel patterns against previous years of data to confirm that general travel patterns (i.e. purpose of visit, length of stay) are relatively consistent.
76 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 5-2: Primary Purpose of Tourist Visits to RTO 5
SOURCE: Ontario Ministry of Tourism, Culture & Sport, 2017. “Pleasure” category includes Shopping and Conventions for
Personal Interest, plus “Business” category includes Conventions & Conferences for Commercial Purposes, and Other
Business.
Figure 5-3 summarizes the proportion of visitors to the Region by duration of stay. As shown, some
64.5% of total visitation is classified as same-day, whereas the remaining 35.5% of visitors to the
Region are overnight, with the majority spending between 1-3 nights in the area.
Figure 5-3: Visitors to RTO 5 by Length of Stay
SOURCE: Ontario Ministry of Tourism, Culture & Sport, 2017. Figures exclude visitation from the United States, however, the duration statistics shown above are consistent with previous MTC reports that included American data.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 77
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where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Building on the proportion of overnight and same-day visitors to Toronto, it is also important to
consider the relative difference in spending patterns among these two traveller groups. As shown in
Figure 5-4, daily expenditures for overnight visitors are nearly $60.00 more than for same day
travellers. Furthermore, accommodation costs represent an additional expenditure component that
ultimately is not made by same-day travellers.
Figure 5-4: Average Daily Expenditures by Visitation Type
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on Ontario Ministry of Tourism, Culture & Sport, 2017.
5.2 Assumptions urbanMetrics has incorporated the foregoing tourism information into a broader tourism expenditure
model that estimates the potential travel spending associated with increased visitation to the Eastern
Waterfront. These underlying visitation estimates have then been incorporated into the Government
of Ontario’s Tourism Regional Economic Impact Model (“TREIM”) to provide an understanding as to
the potential benefits that could accrue to the City of Toronto and more broadly throughout the
Province.
For the purposes of these high-level estimates, urbanMetrics has relied on several core assumptions
that underpin the general approach and more detailed findings presented herein. These assumptions
include:
• Tourism growth in Toronto and the broader GTA Region generally continues along the same or
similar trajectory as in recent years;
78 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
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are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
• The vision, master plan and unique innovations proposed by SWL, as understood by
urbanMetrics and articulated throughout this report, are realized and fully developed, as
proposed;
• Supporting infrastructure (e.g., higher order transit, waterfront pathways and pedestrian
connections, flood protection investments, etc.) are all developed according to publicly
available plans; and,
• Current development trends in neighbourhoods immediately adjacent to the Eastern
Waterfront continue in line with historical trends and known pipeline development activity.
Tourism Drivers
SWL’s proposed concept plan for the Eastern Waterfront will establish a unique, technologically
driven neighbourhood that is likely to attract tourists to the area and has the potential to function as
an eastern ‘anchor’ to the Toronto waterfront. The uniqueness of this neighbourhood, coupled with
the existing and proposed investments to be made throughout this area (e.g., Don River
naturalization, cultural space at the Hearn, the establishment of a new Urban Innovation Cluster,
etc.), promise to create a one-of-a-kind draw. In addition to drawing tourists who may already plan to
visit Toronto, it is highly likely that the Eastern Waterfront will also induce new trips to Toronto, and
encourage visitors to extend their stays (e.g., opting to spend extra time in Toronto specifically to see
the Eastern Waterfront).
Overall, based on the vision identified by SWL, it is our professional opinion that the following factors
will be the primary driving forces for increased tourism growth within the Eastern Waterfront in
coming years. For the purposes of this analysis, we have assumed that these attributes will induce
additional time spent in Toronto from various visitor market segments.
• Technology – The technologically driven approach to neighbourhood design in the Eastern
Waterfront will draw visitors for several purposes, including the novelty and interest in
understanding how the technological implementations may impact day-to-day experiences,
individuals interested for academic or commercial purposes, as well as other municipal
representatives considering implementing such innovations in their own jurisdictions.
• Urban Planning – The master-planned community will attract visitors interested in urban
planning, design and architecture, with visitation growth among students, practitioners and
casual onlookers. These visitors’ peaked interest will be driven by how SWL’s unique approach
to flexibility and design, as well as the integration of technology into the planning process
produces alternative outcomes and has the potential to influence liveability, accessibility and
transportation patterns.
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are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
• Education – Academics, working professionals and casual visitors from across North America
will be attracted to the Eastern Waterfront to learn about and understand the unique
innovations pioneered in Toronto. Toronto has the potential to become a “best practices” case
study for a range of applications that facilitates replication and spin-off innovations in other
communities.
• Culture & Nature – Visitors will be attracted to a renovated Hearn Generating Station, hosting
local and international talent in a unique and iconic space that is unique to Toronto.
Additionally, the SWL vision includes an emphasis on utilizing the natural features on the
subject lands; particularly Villiers Island and the associated re-naturalized Don River.
• Google Presence – The presence of the Google Canadian HQ—a globally recognized brand and
corporate entity—in a unique architectural environment will appeal to a certain segment of
the tourist population.
• Commerce – Google’s presence, as well as the location of a multitude of other technologically
oriented firms, academic researchers, and research institutions, is expected to increase
business visitation to Toronto significantly.
Timing
To establish a base year from which tourism impacts can be estimated, urbanMetrics has considered
the proposed buildout timeline of SWL’s vision for the Eastern Waterfront, in addition to the rate of
technological change expected, as well as other development occurring in Toronto. While the SWL
vision for the Eastern Waterfront is a novel, one-of-a-kind concept, we generally expect that—over
time—it will evolve into a mature neighbourhood that both fits in with and complements Toronto’s
existing urban fabric and communities. With this in mind, urbanMetrics has adopted 2035 as the base
year from which tourism impacts are to be tested, as it is our opinion that this point in time
potentially represents peak interest and visitation to the community. Our rationale for this is as
follows:
• Pre-2030: Introduction to Early Adopters – This period represents the initiation of tourism
visitation, once a significant portion of Phase 1 and 2 are forecast to be completed and fully
occupied (i.e., including Quayside and Keating West). Evaluating visitation at this date reflects
the initial interest and attraction to the SWL project. At this stage, it is anticipated that
visitation would primarily be driven by early adopters, including individuals that have a keen
interest in one or more aspects of the development project (e.g., urban planning, technology,
commercial or municipal purposes).
• 2030-2040: Peak Visitation – The entirety of Phase 1 and Phase 2 of the SWL vision are
scheduled to be completed and occupied by 2040. Accounting for potential construction
80 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
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are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
delays, occupancy and leasing timelines, this represents a reasonable timeline by which the
majority of the community has ultimately settled and established an identity both amongst
residents of Toronto and tourists to the area. At this period, it is anticipated that the area has
achieved its greatest prominence as a tourism destination and attracts the most significant
visitation from the widest range of visitor profiles. This is also when the area is expected to
receive more international tourism attention.
• Post-2040: Maturity – This represents the maturity of the Eastern Waterfront as a visitor
destination. By this period, SWL’s vision for the subject lands will largely represent a stable,
mature neighbourhood with significant local roots, engagement and attraction. It will have
evolved into one of Toronto’s iconic communities with a unique technological dynamic
underlying a more traditional inner-city Toronto community.
5.3 Visitor Spending Estimates Relying on the above assumptions and parameters for future tourism growth in the Eastern
Waterfront, the following summarizes the derivation of our visitor spending inputs.
As shown in Figure 5-5, we have estimated that SWL’s vision for the Eastern Waterfront will attract a
total of some 7.4 million annual tourists by 2035. This assumes Toronto tourism continues to grow at
a rate of approximately 3.0% per annum—consistent with recent and forecast expansion—and that
the Eastern Waterfront is able to ultimately capture one tenth of this total visitation. As illustrated in
Figure 5-6, this suggests that the Eastern Waterfront would attract a similar number of total visitors as
Vancouver’s Stanley Park or San Francisco’s Pier 39. Recognizing the unique approach that SWL has
proposed for the area, we believe that its reasonable to expect visitation to generally fall in-line with
these other Canadian and American destinations upon full build out and maturity of the
neighbourhood.
To then determine the associated visitor spending for these tourism estimates, we have applied the
average daily expenditure rates for both same-day and overnight visitors identified in Figure 5-4. We
have also assumed an average dwell time of some 3 hours (i.e., the equivalent of a single morning or
afternoon spent visiting the Eastern Waterfront). As shown in the figure below, this results in an
estimated total visitor spending of some $104 Million in 2035.
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Figure 5-5: Visitation and Spending Forecasts for Eastern Waterfront
1 Based on an assumed 3.0% annual growth rate from 2017 baseline figures obtained from Tourism Toronto. Rounded to the nearest 1,000. 2 urbanMetrics inc. 3 urbanMetrics inc. Overnight and Same-Day visitation proportion is based on Ontario Ministry of Tourism, Culture & Sport, 2017. 4 urbanMetrics inc. Expenditure rates are based on Ontario Ministry of Tourism, Culture & Sport, 2017. 5 urbanMetrics inc. 6 urbanMetrics inc. Figures rounded to the nearest 1,000.
2035
Annual Toronto Visitation1 74,447,000
Proportion Allocated to SWL ("Market Capture")2 10.0%
Total Visitation to Port Lands3 7,444,700
Overnight Visitors 35.5% 2,643,864
Same-Day Visitors 64.5% 4,800,836
Total Expenditures4 $831,991,000
Overnight Visitors $149.36 $394,883,000
Same-Day Visitors $91.05 $437,108,000
Average Dwell Time (All Visitors)5 (hrs) 3
Average Dwell Time (All Visitors) (% of a day) 12.5%
Total Eastern Waterfront-Related Expenditures6 $103,999,000
Overnight Visitors $49,360,000
Same-Day Visitors $54,639,000
82 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
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Figure 5-6: Tourism Visitation to Selected Attractions Across North America
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. For illustrative and general reference purposes only. Tourism figures have been derived from
individual tourism organizations. These figures are intended to provide a high-level estimation of tourism visitation to a
variety of attractions across North America. Methodologies and definitions may vary across each organization.
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are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
5.4 Visitor Spending Impacts For the purposes of understanding the economic impacts associated with the tourism expenditures
attributable to SWL in the Eastern Waterfront, the spending estimates shown in Figure 5-5 have been
used as inputs to the aforementioned TREIM model. The results of this analysis have been highlighted
in Figure 5-7.
84 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
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where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure 5-7: Economic Impact Summary – Eastern Waterfront Tourism Spending
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.
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Appendix A Economic Impact Approach
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where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
The quantitative economic impacts of proposed investments in the Eastern Waterfront—including
those relating to one-time building construction and infrastructure construction, as well as ongoing
business operations and tourism activity—have been estimated using mathematical models, which
simulate the flow of expenditures through the economy. These models are designed to provide a
reliable measure of the impact of expenditures on job creation, incomes, value added to the
economy, as well as taxes and other government revenues.
As illustrated on the diagram to the right, the main steps in
running this type of economic impact model are: compiling the
input spending data; assembling the data to ensure all expenses
are accounted for and divided into appropriate categories to
ensure that the individual economic sectors are appropriately
represented; calibrating the model to the local economy using
employment data; testing against expected results; and running
the finalized version of the model.
The data assembly stage for this assignment involved allocating
each expenditure item to specific industry sectors using the
North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), as well
as the more detailed industry sub-categories identified in the
latest available Statistics Canada input-output economic impact
model. The allocation of expenditures by industry category
were based primarily on available financial information obtained
from Waterfront Toronto and SWL, as well as our own estimates
for local tourism activity. The data gathering stage also involved
several meetings and follow-up discussions with SWL’s financial
and technical staff to review expenditures and to confirm
assumptions made by urbanMetrics.
Economic Impact Model
With the exception of tourism related spending—which has been discussed in more detail herein—
the economic impacts of all planned investments and ongoing spending in the Eastern Waterfront
have been measured at the national, provincial and local levels, through the use of custom runs of the
Statistics Canada Interprovincial Input-Output model.
The main models considered in this study are based on the latest available Input-Output tables
produced by Statistics Canada for 2014, which illustrate the structure of the economy through the
depiction of transactions (sales and purchases) made among and between different industry sectors
of the economy.
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National, Provincial and local impacts have been determined using expenditure data related to a
range of construction costs and other business activities, as outlined throughout the body of this
report. These expenditure data served as the key inputs to our economic impact reporting and have
been analyzed using the Statistics Canada Input-Output model in order to generate the following key
economic impacts:
• Gross Output;
• Value Added;
• Employment;
• Labour Income; and,
• Revenues to the Three Levels of Government.
The model also considers the direct impact of spending, as well as the indirect and induced impacts
that are spread more broadly across the Province and Canada.
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are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Quantitative Estimation of Economic Impacts
Estimating economic impacts involves modelling the direct, indirect and induced impacts of an initial
“shock” investment or business activity on different spatial scales. Specifically, the type of modelling
used in this study involves the application of economic multipliers to measure the marginal impact of
initial expenditures on gross output (sales), value added to GDP, employment, labour income and
accrued taxes and tax credits going forward.
urbanMetrics inc. has utilized the Statistics Canada input-output economic impact model for this
research update, which is based on the Canadian National Input-Output Accounts. These accounts
can be used to estimate the total impact of expenditures, on an aggregate and industry-specific basis.
For the purposes of this study, the model has been calibrated to estimate economic impacts on the
Toronto economy, as well as at the Ontario and Canadian levels.
The basic principle of this type of model is the concept that each dollar of expenditure on goods
and/or services purchased from a given industry sector circulates and re-circulates within the
economy, thereby multiplying the effects of the original expenditure. As such, this process is referred
to as the multiplier effect. The estimated multipliers for all expenditures associated with SWL’s vision
for the Eastern Waterfront generally has three main components:
• Direct Impacts, which represent the initial operating and/or capital investments in the
waterfront. These expenditures include the purchase of labour, equipment, other
infrastructure and related services;
• Indirect effects, which represent the subsequent purchases by suppliers required to produce
the goods and services related to the original investments; and
• Induced Impacts, which result when workers employed in the sectors, stimulated by initial and
indirect expenditures, spend portions of their incomes on consumer goods and services.
Direct, indirect and induced impacts are estimated in terms of the following measures:
• Gross Output – a measure of total sales throughout the economy in question, as a result of an
initial expenditure on goods and/or services produced by an industry22.
22 For example, with respect to a construction project, an initial expenditure would be made to pay for the design firm and
contractor. The design team would then hire staff, purchase equipment and materials, such as computers, software,
paper, etc. The construction company would also hire labourers, pay for construction equipment and materials. The staff
in turn would purchase goods and services from their wages to support their everyday living. The sum of all of these
expenditures would be the gross output. This, however, is not the true impact on the economy, as it is involves double
counting (e.g., the initial expenditure, in reality covered wages and salaries, equipment, etc. of the contractors it hired).
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• Value Added (Gross Domestic Product) – represents the net impact on the economy after
eliminating the double counting that can occur when calculating gross output and lead to the
calculation of inflated multipliers. This measure only considers final goods (gross sales less
cost of purchased inputs). At the local level “value added” is typically smaller, than the initial
expenditure, due to leakage23.
• Employment – total full-time, full-year jobs generated by direct, indirect and induced
expenditures. For one-time capital expenditures and other ongoing spending, such as those
being analyzed in this study, the employment figures produced by the model represent years
of full-time employment. For example, one job identified by the model represents the
equivalent of one person working full-time for the duration of one year.
• Labour Income – total value of wages, salaries and benefits received by employees associated
with direct, indirect and induced expenditure.
• Government Revenues – revenues accruing to federal, provincial and local jurisdictions as a
result of direct, indirect and induced expenditures. Revenue categories include personal and
corporate income tax, sales taxes (e.g. PST and GST), property taxes and other miscellaneous
taxes, tariffs and fees.
• Multipliers are expressed by the ratio of total impacts (direct, indirect and induced) to the
direct expenditure component for each variable identified. This is the same for all outputs
expressed in dollars as well as that of the employment multiplier in order to preserve common
units24.
Localized Impacts
In Canada, Statistics Canada calculates input-output accounts at the national, provincial levels only.
The economic impacts for the City of Toronto were calculated by applying “location quotients” to the
economic impact results generated for the Province of Ontario. Location quotients represent the
share of employment in each industry sector relative to the Province as a whole. This is the most
23 For example, a firm building a project in one jurisdiction may purchase equipment and supplies from another.
Furthermore, design and construction employees may live outside of the jurisdiction in which the project is being built and
thus spend their wages in other closer to their homes. 24 For example, the gross output multiplier on a $10 million construction project can be thought of in the following manor.
Some $2 million of the budget was paid to the design firm for staff wages, equipment and materials. Some $5 million was
paid to the construction firm for wages, materials and equipment. Subsequently, design and construction employees paid
$1 million from their wages for food, entertainment, and other living expenses. The gross output would be $10 + $5 + $2 +
$1 million, or $17 million, or a gross output multiplier of 1.7.
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are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
common and accepted methodology for determining localized impacts when industry and commodity
data is not available.
The logic to using location quotients to estimate localized impacts is that the relative share of
employment within a given industry should be similar to the share of a purchase within that industry
that could be sourced locally. The principal issue with this approach is that when it is applied to a
municipality within a much larger urban area, there is the potential for significant cross purchasing
between municipalities, regardless of the employment composition. With regards to the custom
models used for this study, even at the City level, this would be limited due to the overall size of
Toronto.
Tourism Impacts
As noted above, the economic impacts of tourism spending in the Eastern Waterfront have been
determined through a similar, albeit separate and distinct input-output model. This model is
equivalent to the one used for the various other components of our main economic impact analysis
(i.e., for capital construction investments, infrastructure, operating output, etc.), though it has been
specifically calibrated to reflect the impacts of tourism activities. It is maintained by the Government
of Ontario’s Ministry of Tourism, Culture & Sport.
Similar to the main economic impact modelling outlined above, the Tourism Regional Economic
Impact Model (“TREIM”)—has been run to measure direct, indirect and induced impacts at various
geographies across the Province of Ontario, including: job creation (person years); labour incomes,
gross output, and government/tax revenues.
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Appendix B Economic Impact Summary Tables
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Figure B-1: Economic Impact Summary – Baseline Building Construction (Total)
Baseline Scenario – Building Construction Total Phase 1 + Phase 2
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on a custom run of the Statistics Canada Interprovincial Input-Output model.
TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA
Initial Expenditure 12,132,121,707$ 12,132,121,707$ 12,132,121,707$
Impact: Gross Output
Direct 12,132,121,707$ 12,132,121,707$ 12,132,121,707$
Indirect 4,489,509,971$ 6,640,993,003$ 8,348,564,756$
Induced 2,694,743,349$ 3,916,814,704$ 4,949,686,707$
Total 19,316,375,027$ 22,689,929,415$ 25,430,373,171$
Multiplier 1.59 1.87 2.10
Impact: Value Added
Direct 4,879,912,866$ 4,879,912,866$ 4,879,912,866$
Indirect 2,429,181,931$ 3,388,328,677$ 4,183,603,685$
Induced 1,493,269,635$ 2,300,069,238$ 2,844,025,057$
Total 8,802,364,432$ 10,568,310,780$ 11,907,541,608$
Multiplier 1.80 2.17 2.44
Impact: Employment (Full-Time, Full-Year Employment)
Direct 37,551 37,551 37,551
Indirect 19,900 28,589 34,474
Induced 12,575 15,689 19,327
Total 70,026 81,829 91,351
Multiplier 1.86 2.18 2.43
Impact: Labour Income
Direct 3,365,369,274$ 3,365,369,274$ 3,365,369,274$
Indirect 1,580,831,101$ 2,268,022,697$ 2,736,764,613$
Induced 867,069,680$ 1,075,869,158$ 1,338,598,055$
Total 5,813,270,055$ 6,709,261,129$ 7,440,731,941$
Impact: Total Taxes
Federal 1,247,438,666$ 1,503,354,129$ 1,675,238,194$
Provincial 1,220,728,775$ 1,542,797,387$ 1,670,862,273$
Local 1,098,051,177$ 1,488,612,750$ 1,501,516,025$
Total 3,566,218,618$ 4,534,764,266$ 4,847,616,492$
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Figure B-2: Economic Impact Summary – Baseline Infrastructure (Phase 1)
Baseline Scenario – Building Construction Phase 1
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on a custom run of the Statistics Canada Interprovincial Input-Output model.
TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA
Initial Expenditure 1,529,780,062$ 1,529,780,062$ 1,529,780,062$
Impact: Gross Output
Direct 1,529,780,062$ 1,529,780,062$ 1,529,780,062$
Indirect 563,440,787$ 843,293,668$ 1,071,297,939$
Induced 329,020,491$ 478,121,865$ 607,170,766$
Total 2,422,241,340$ 2,851,195,596$ 3,208,248,767$
Multiplier 1.58 1.86 2.10
Impact: Value Added
Direct 605,465,260$ 605,465,260$ 605,465,260$
Indirect 302,570,438$ 426,954,334$ 532,014,665$
Induced 182,305,143$ 280,721,206$ 348,895,518$
Total 1,090,340,842$ 1,313,140,800$ 1,486,375,444$
Multiplier 1.80 2.17 2.45
Impact: Employment (Full-Time, Full-Year Employment)
Direct 4,509 4,509 4,509
Indirect 2,492 3,616 4,400
Induced 1,535 1,915 2,371
Total 8,535 10,040 11,280
Multiplier 1.89 2.23 2.50
Impact: Labour Income
Direct 400,306,689$ 400,306,689$ 400,306,689$
Indirect 197,079,078$ 285,673,253$ 347,815,112$
Induced 105,849,429$ 131,332,089$ 164,198,347$
Total 703,235,196$ 817,312,031$ 912,320,148$
Impact: Total Taxes
Federal 151,826,152$ 184,673,988$ 206,536,058$
Provincial 152,439,513$ 194,405,898$ 209,966,246$
Local 145,887,609$ 199,084,564$ 200,108,714$
Total 450,153,275$ 578,164,449$ 616,611,019$
94 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure B-3: Economic Impact Summary – Baseline Construction (2040)
Baseline Scenario – Building Construction 2040 - Quayside, Keating West, & Villiers Island
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on a custom run of the Statistics Canada Interprovincial Input-Output model.
TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA
Initial Expenditure 6,079,440,598$ 6,079,440,598$ 6,079,440,598$
Impact: Gross Output
Direct 6,079,440,598$ 6,079,440,598$ 6,079,440,598$
Indirect 2,241,623,265$ 3,343,649,894$ 4,234,897,567$
Induced 1,319,954,955$ 1,918,248,892$ 2,432,422,033$
Total 9,641,018,818$ 11,341,339,384$ 12,746,760,198$
Multiplier 1.59 1.87 2.10
Impact: Value Added
Direct 2,418,292,994$ 2,418,292,994$ 2,418,292,994$
Indirect 1,206,413,478$ 1,696,647,226$ 2,108,525,937$
Induced 731,389,161$ 1,126,322,995$ 1,397,702,229$
Total 4,356,095,633$ 5,241,263,215$ 5,924,521,160$
Multiplier 1.80 2.17 2.45
Impact: Employment (Full-Time, Full-Year Employment)
Direct 18,180 18,180 18,180
Indirect 9,921 14,356 17,422
Induced 6,159 7,683 9,499
Total 34,260 40,219 45,101
Multiplier 1.88 2.21 2.48
Impact: Labour Income
Direct 1,618,854,597$ 1,618,854,597$ 1,618,854,597$
Indirect 785,560,470$ 1,135,328,080$ 1,378,718,186$
Induced 424,664,209$ 526,908,853$ 657,811,415$
Total 2,829,079,275$ 3,281,091,530$ 3,655,384,198$
Impact: Total Taxes
Federal 609,678,901$ 739,534,878$ 826,177,454$
Provincial 607,598,468$ 772,812,613$ 835,309,828$
Local 571,496,868$ 778,427,109$ 783,189,454$
Total 1,788,774,238$ 2,290,774,600$ 2,444,676,736$
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 95
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure B-4: Economic Impact Summary – Baseline Infrastructure (Phase 1 + Phase 2)
Baseline Scenario – Infrastructure Phase 1 + 2
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on a custom run of the Statistics Canada Interprovincial Input-Output model.
TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA
Initial Expenditure 3,002,558,500$ 3,002,558,500$ 3,002,558,500$
Impact: Gross Output
Direct 2,984,768,479$ 2,984,768,479$ 2,984,768,479$
Indirect 1,179,007,450$ 1,717,823,732$ 2,106,156,788$
Induced 661,032,229$ 957,680,377$ 1,202,809,087$
Total 4,824,808,158$ 5,660,272,588$ 6,293,734,354$
Multiplier 1.62 1.90 2.11
Impact: Value Added
Direct 1,153,403,697$ 1,153,403,697$ 1,153,403,697$
Indirect 626,332,594$ 857,969,189$ 1,053,077,537$
Induced 366,478,897$ 562,605,585$ 691,159,070$
Total 2,146,215,189$ 2,573,978,472$ 2,897,640,304$
Multiplier 1.86 2.23 2.51
Impact: Employment (Full-Time, Full-Year Employment)
Direct 10,172 10,172 10,172
Indirect 4,740 6,550 7,710
Induced 3,095 3,822 4,675
Total 18,007 20,543 22,557
Multiplier 1.77 2.02 2.22
Impact: Labour Income
Direct 874,081,189$ 874,081,189$ 874,081,189$
Indirect 401,457,417$ 553,909,548$ 653,903,296$
Induced 214,023,439$ 262,731,728$ 324,889,861$
Total 1,489,562,045$ 1,690,722,465$ 1,852,874,346$
Impact: Total Taxes
Federal 326,237,156$ 386,422,179$ 429,261,653$
Provincial 272,690,342$ 336,865,770$ 372,722,573$
Local 70,787,529$ 95,166,665$ 101,581,971$
Total 669,715,027$ 818,454,614$ 903,566,196$
96 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure B-5: Economic Impact Summary – Baseline Infrastructure (2040)
Baseline Scenario – Infrastructure 2040 - Quayside, Keating West, & Villiers Island
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on a custom run of the Statistics Canada Interprovincial Input-Output model.
TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA
Initial Expenditure 1,597,400,000$ 1,597,400,000$ 1,597,400,000$
Impact: Gross Output
Direct 1,588,908,602$ 1,588,908,602$ 1,588,908,602$
Indirect 644,203,951$ 937,378,299$ 1,145,886,437$
Induced 355,167,667$ 514,560,617$ 645,922,191$
Total 2,588,280,220$ 3,040,847,517$ 3,380,717,230$
Multiplier 1.63 1.91 2.13
Impact: Value Added
Direct 613,444,275$ 613,444,275$ 613,444,275$
Indirect 340,407,345$ 466,252,315$ 571,588,492$
Induced 196,907,642$ 302,291,388$ 371,152,682$
Total 1,150,759,262$ 1,381,987,978$ 1,556,185,449$
Multiplier 1.88 2.25 2.54
Impact: Employment (Full-Time, Full-Year Employment)
Direct 5,447 5,447 5,447
Indirect 2,572 3,540 4,156
Induced 1,663 2,053 2,510
Total 9,682 11,040 12,114
Multiplier 1.78 2.03 2.22
Impact: Labour Income
Direct 472,312,245$ 472,312,245$ 472,312,245$
Indirect 217,111,310$ 298,231,524$ 351,466,370$
Induced 115,001,440$ 141,164,934$ 174,469,254$
Total 804,424,995$ 911,708,703$ 998,247,870$
Impact: Total Taxes
Federal 174,974,706$ 207,644,674$ 230,204,849$
Provincial 146,360,976$ 180,872,885$ 198,983,427$
Local 38,553,914$ 51,919,387$ 54,624,171$
Total 359,889,596$ 440,436,946$ 483,812,448$
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 97
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure B-6: Economic Impact Summary – Baseline Operating Output (Phase 1 + Phase 2)
Baseline Scenario – Operating Output Phase 1 + Phase 2
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on a custom run of the Statistics Canada Interprovincial Input-Output model.
TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA
Initial Expenditure 5,023,794,333$ 5,023,794,333$ 5,023,794,333$
Impact: Gross Output
Direct 5,023,794,380$ 5,023,794,333$ 5,023,794,333$
Indirect 1,655,369,613$ 2,318,675,236$ 2,895,928,433$
Induced 1,014,421,406$ 1,469,624,334$ 1,846,808,423$
Total 7,693,585,399$ 8,812,093,903$ 9,766,531,189$
Multiplier 1.53 1.75 1.94
Impact: Value Added
Direct 2,597,721,029$ 2,597,721,029$ 2,597,721,029$
Indirect 1,059,514,739$ 1,230,751,156$ 1,527,789,952$
Induced 562,395,634$ 863,340,633$ 1,061,219,730$
Total 4,219,631,402$ 4,691,812,818$ 5,186,730,711$
Multiplier 1.62 1.81 2.00
Impact: Employment (Full-Time, Full-Year Employment)
Direct 18,128 18,128 18,128
Indirect 7,737 9,054 10,894
Induced 4,749 5,864 7,179
Total 30,614 33,047 36,202
Multiplier 1.69 1.82 2.00
Impact: Labour Income
Direct 1,469,736,128$ 1,469,736,128$ 1,469,736,128$
Indirect 629,491,193$ 733,321,573$ 889,720,633$
Induced 328,405,920$ 403,183,796$ 498,814,929$
Total 2,427,633,241$ 2,606,241,497$ 2,858,271,690$
Impact: Total Taxes
Federal 588,528,446$ 657,696,751$ 725,226,441$
Provincial 489,545,759$ 565,428,278$ 624,729,788$
Local 150,631,704$ 184,670,580$ 197,616,397$
Total 1,228,705,909$ 1,407,795,609$ 1,547,572,627$
98 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure B-7: Economic Impact Summary – Baseline Operating Output (2040)
Baseline Scenario – Operating Output 2040 - Quayside, Keating West, & Villiers Island
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on a custom run of the Statistics Canada Interprovincial Input-Output model. NOTE – Most of the “operating output” impacts referenced throughout this report have been expressed on an annual basis and therefore consider the
full build-out of the Eastern Waterfront under each scenario. This table, however, summarizes the impacts that could be generated in 2040 only, based
on the level of development achieved at this time. It also assumes that the composition of the local employment base in this area will be equivalent to
that modelled for the full build-out of the Eastern Waterfront under the Baseline scenario (i.e., consistent with the summary table in Figure B-6 above).
TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA
Initial Expenditure 2,052,217,859$ 2,052,217,859$ 2,052,217,859$
Impact: Gross Output
Direct 2,052,217,878$ 2,052,217,859$ 2,052,217,859$
Indirect 676,217,787$ 947,177,853$ 1,182,985,539$
Induced 414,390,715$ 600,340,919$ 754,420,459$
Total 3,142,826,380$ 3,599,736,630$ 3,989,623,857$
Multiplier 1.53 1.75 1.94
Impact: Value Added
Direct 1,061,167,941$ 1,061,167,941$ 1,061,167,941$
Indirect 432,811,322$ 502,761,326$ 624,101,549$
Induced 229,738,378$ 352,674,283$ 433,507,811$
Total 1,723,717,642$ 1,916,603,551$ 2,118,777,301$
Multiplier 1.62 1.81 2.00
Impact: Employment (Full-Time, Full-Year Employment)
Direct 7,405 7,405 7,405
Indirect 3,161 3,699 4,450
Induced 1,940 2,396 2,933
Total 12,506 13,500 14,788
Multiplier 1.69 1.82 2.00
Impact: Labour Income
Direct 600,386,586$ 600,386,586$ 600,386,586$
Indirect 257,146,886$ 299,561,552$ 363,450,502$
Induced 134,153,679$ 164,700,410$ 203,765,687$
Total 991,687,151$ 1,064,648,548$ 1,167,602,776$
Impact: Total Taxes
Federal 240,413,621$ 268,668,844$ 296,254,694$
Provincial 199,979,235$ 230,977,212$ 255,201,854$
Local 61,532,987$ 75,437,854$ 80,726,215$
Total 501,925,844$ 575,083,911$ 632,182,763$
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 99
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure B-8: Economic Impact Summary – SWL Vision Building Construction (Phase 1 + Phase 2)
Sidewalk Labs Vision – Building Construction Phase 1 + Phase 2
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on a custom run of the Statistics Canada Interprovincial Input-Output model.
TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA
Initial Expenditure 17,924,666,082$ 17,924,666,082$ 17,924,666,082$
Impact: Gross Output
Direct 17,924,666,082$ 17,924,666,082$ 17,924,666,082$
Indirect 6,493,072,456$ 9,727,541,474$ 12,527,754,113$
Induced 3,977,810,700$ 5,780,418,490$ 7,350,466,624$
Total 28,395,549,239$ 33,432,626,046$ 37,802,886,820$
Multiplier 1.58 1.87 2.11
Impact: Value Added
Direct 7,040,437,678$ 7,040,437,678$ 7,040,437,678$
Indirect 3,562,482,362$ 5,026,280,562$ 6,314,597,954$
Induced 2,203,986,991$ 3,393,753,304$ 4,224,197,530$
Total 12,806,907,031$ 15,460,471,543$ 17,579,233,162$
Multiplier 1.82 2.20 2.50
Impact: Employment (Full-Time, Full-Year Employment)
Direct 55,224 55,224 55,224
Indirect 29,170 42,413 52,004
Induced 18,557 23,150 28,700
Total 102,950 120,787 135,928
Multiplier 1.86 2.19 2.46
Impact: Labour Income
Direct 4,927,114,947$ 4,927,114,947$ 4,927,114,947$
Indirect 2,322,251,389$ 3,369,639,892$ 4,132,897,206$
Induced 1,279,640,053$ 1,587,841,066$ 1,987,624,074$
Total 8,529,006,390$ 9,884,595,905$ 11,047,636,227$
Impact: Total Taxes
Federal 1,872,339,163$ 2,250,011,317$ 2,488,618,950$
Provincial 1,761,118,062$ 2,238,391,973$ 2,456,734,673$
Local 1,505,318,562$ 2,067,972,082$ 2,118,923,603$
Total 5,138,775,787$ 6,556,375,371$ 7,064,277,226$
100 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure B-9: Economic Impact Summary – SWL Vision Building Construction (Phase 1)
Sidewalk Labs Vision – Building Construction Phase 1
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on a custom run of the Statistics Canada Interprovincial Input-Output model.
TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA
Initial Expenditure 1,613,213,865$ 1,613,213,865$ 1,613,213,865$
Impact: Gross Output
Direct 1,613,213,865$ 1,613,213,865$ 1,613,213,865$
Indirect 599,249,924$ 890,703,195$ 1,139,906,900$
Induced 364,868,434$ 530,232,553$ 673,336,190$
Total 2,577,332,223$ 3,034,149,613$ 3,426,456,955$
Multiplier 1.60 1.88 2.12
Impact: Value Added
Direct 622,185,212$ 622,185,212$ 622,185,212$
Indirect 330,265,857$ 462,330,965$ 578,155,113$
Induced 202,170,197$ 311,322,482$ 386,961,314$
Total 1,154,621,266$ 1,395,838,659$ 1,587,301,638$
Multiplier 1.86 2.24 2.55
Impact: Employment (Full-Time, Full-Year Employment)
Direct 5,065 5,065 5,065
Indirect 2,681 3,866 4,718
Induced 1,702 2,124 2,629
Total 9,449 11,055 12,412
Multiplier 1.87 2.18 2.45
Impact: Labour Income
Direct 451,720,281$ 451,720,281$ 451,720,281$
Indirect 215,876,135$ 310,558,961$ 378,839,410$
Induced 117,389,790$ 145,649,507$ 182,070,571$
Total 784,986,206$ 907,928,749$ 1,012,630,262$
Impact: Total Taxes
Federal 172,079,221$ 206,234,304$ 227,542,459$
Provincial 157,961,737$ 200,176,620$ 220,115,171$
Local 124,179,383$ 170,653,045$ 175,557,635$
Total 454,220,341$ 577,063,970$ 623,215,265$
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 101
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure B-10: Economic Impact Summary – SWL Vision Infrastructure (Phase 1 + Phase 2)
Sidewalk Labs Vision – Infrastructure Phase 1 + Phase 2
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on a custom run of the Statistics Canada Interprovincial Input-Output model.
TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA
Initial Expenditure 5,157,000,000$ 5,157,000,000$ 5,157,000,000$
Impact: Gross Output
Direct 5,129,819,445$ 5,129,819,445$ 5,129,819,445$
Indirect 1,889,406,860$ 2,772,013,034$ 3,403,022,699$
Induced 1,116,403,997$ 1,617,505,501$ 2,027,840,993$
Total 8,135,630,302$ 9,519,337,980$ 10,560,683,137$
Multiplier 1.59 1.86 2.06
Impact: Value Added
Direct 2,148,543,316$ 2,148,543,316$ 2,148,543,316$
Indirect 1,005,197,777$ 1,383,667,404$ 1,699,309,543$
Induced 618,964,731$ 950,290,157$ 1,165,203,566$
Total 3,772,705,824$ 4,482,500,877$ 5,013,056,425$
Multiplier 1.76 2.09 2.33
Impact: Employment (Full-Time, Full-Year Employment)
Direct 17,663 17,663 17,663
Indirect 7,626 10,636 12,527
Induced 5,227 6,455 7,882
Total 30,515 34,754 38,072
Multiplier 1.73 1.97 2.16
Impact: Labour Income
Direct 1,485,967,103$ 1,485,967,103$ 1,485,967,103$
Indirect 647,888,920$ 902,603,039$ 1,065,668,067$
Induced 361,481,214$ 443,742,010$ 547,745,775$
Total 2,495,337,237$ 2,832,312,153$ 3,099,380,945$
Impact: Total Taxes
Federal 564,998,092$ 666,997,646$ 737,621,168$
Provincial 467,167,516$ 572,701,532$ 632,405,883$
Local 115,573,709$ 153,026,460$ 164,104,658$
Total 1,147,739,317$ 1,392,725,638$ 1,534,131,709$
102 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure B-11: Economic Impact Summary – SWL Vision Operating Output (Phase 1 + Phase 2)
Sidewalk Labs Vision – Operating Output Phase 1 + Phase 2
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on a custom run of the Statistics Canada Interprovincial Input-Output model.
TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA
Initial Expenditure 13,237,067,637$ 13,237,067,637$ 13,237,067,637$
Impact: Gross Output
Direct 13,237,067,487$ 13,237,067,637$ 13,237,067,637$
Indirect 4,491,559,734$ 6,030,024,749$ 7,368,953,681$
Induced 2,820,166,455$ 4,086,370,051$ 5,108,946,559$
Total 20,548,793,676$ 23,353,462,437$ 25,714,967,877$
Multiplier 1.55 1.76 1.94
Impact: Value Added
Direct 7,264,164,057$ 7,264,164,057$ 7,264,164,057$
Indirect 2,941,588,492$ 3,303,117,749$ 4,006,718,951$
Induced 1,563,678,466$ 2,400,976,522$ 2,935,430,663$
Total 11,769,431,016$ 12,968,258,328$ 14,206,313,671$
Multiplier 1.62 1.79 1.96
Impact: Employment (Full-Time, Full-Year Employment)
Direct 46,419 46,419 46,419
Indirect 21,819 24,662 29,274
Induced 13,206 16,308 19,860
Total 81,443 87,388 95,552
Multiplier 1.75 1.88 2.06
Impact: Labour Income
Direct 4,157,879,855$ 4,157,879,855$ 4,157,879,855$
Indirect 1,788,827,347$ 2,015,498,753$ 2,406,484,850$
Induced 913,169,757$ 1,121,019,875$ 1,379,980,574$
Total 6,859,876,959$ 7,294,398,482$ 7,944,345,278$
Impact: Total Taxes
Federal 1,646,036,249$ 1,821,305,967$ 1,992,545,329$
Provincial 1,387,745,602$ 1,584,043,496$ 1,733,979,127$
Local 466,334,697$ 561,675,703$ 594,512,166$
Total 3,500,116,547$ 3,967,025,167$ 4,321,036,622$
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 103
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure B-12: Economic Impact Summary – SWL Vision Tourism (Same-Day Expenditures)
Sidewalk Labs Vision – Tourism Eastern Waterfront
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on a custom run of the Government of Ontario’s Tourism Regional Economic Impact
Model (“TREIM”).
104 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Figure B-13: Economic Impact Summary – SWL Vision Tourism (Overnight Expenditures)
Sidewalk Labs Vision – Tourism Eastern Waterfront
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on a custom run of the Government of Ontario’s Tourism Regional Economic Impact
Model (“TREIM”).
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 105
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Appendix C urbanMetrics Profile
106 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Firm Profile urbanMetrics is one of Canada’s oldest and most respected real estate market and urban economic
consulting firms. Our team consistently delivers expert advice to clients—large and small, public and
private—who want to put their resources to better use. We provide custom analytics and practical
solutions that are designed to help our clients negotiate change and manage risk.
We are a results-oriented advisory firm focused on:
• Location-Based Market Research & Analysis;
• Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis;
• Concept Scoping & Refinement;
• Strategy & Public Policy;
• Stakeholder Engagement; and,
• Expert Testimony & Dispute Resolution (OMB/LPAT)
Our clients benefit from our diverse range of backgrounds including: real estate market analysts; land
economists; Geographic Information System analysts; urban geographers; and urban planners. This
combination of skills enables us to work collaboratively to offer our clients an innovative and
comprehensive approach to each assignment.
Corporate History
Through its long history, urbanMetrics (and its predecessor firms) has established itself as a leading
consulting practice, providing a range of market, economic and strategic advice to the real estate
development and urban planning industries. Our firm was originally founded in 1947 as Larry Smith &
Company; the premier real estate consulting firm in Canada and the United States. The Canadian
practices of Larry Smith and Canadian Urban Economics Ltd. were acquired by Coopers & Lybrand
(“C&L”) in 1974 and through the merger with Price Waterhouse in 1998 became the
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP Real Estate Advisory Services practice.
In 2004, urbanMetrics was launched as a wholly independent consulting firm with senior staff from
the former PricewaterhouseCoopers Real Estate Advisory Services practice. The original Partners of
the firm have long standing experience and strong linkages with all our legacy firms.
Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario) | 107
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
Clients
Our experts offer advisory services across all sectors of the real estate market, including to municipal,
provincial and federal government agencies, major property managers, public and private developers,
retailers, as well as institutional owners of real estate.
Our firm also maintains close working ties with professionals across the full spectrum of the municipal
development and real estate development/management industries. We collaborate with planners,
designers, politicians, engineers, lawyers, retailers, educators, economic development officers, real
estate developers and institutional investors.
Qualifications & Experience urbanMetrics regularly advises major public agencies and private sector organizations on the
economic impacts of major capital investments, key policy changes and on-going business activities,
including tourism. Our methodologies rely on established practices that have been accepted and
regularly peer reviewed by government decision makers.
In addition to this expertise, our firm also continues to be involved in virtually all of the single largest
and most high-profile development projects throughout the City of Toronto and across the Greater
Toronto Area, providing our team with an intimate familiarity with the unique opportunities and
challenges faced by new development in the Eastern Waterfront. In particular, we have worked
108 | Sidewalk Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis (Toronto, Ontario)
This economic impact analysis relies on development concepts and proposal information provided by Sidewalk Labs,
where applicable. All of these concepts and proposals were developed in consultation with a variety of stakeholders and
are subject to approval by many of those same stakeholders, including but not limited to public entities and Sidewalk Labs.
closely with Waterfront Toronto for more than a decade, articulating the various economic impacts of
major investments in the revitalization of the Toronto waterfront, as well as in determining the
related spin-off benefits of new public and private development activity in the area. Similarly, we
have completed a range of work on behalf of local developers and major property owners active in
this particular submarket of Toronto, as well as a diverse collection of public sector clients and
government agencies directly involved in shaping the future of this community.
The following highlights a selection of our recent project experience in this regard:
• Waterfront Toronto – Multiple Economic Impact Analyses
• Infrastructure Ontario – West Don Lands/Pan Am Athlete’s Village Economic Impact Analysis
• First Gulf – East Harbour (Former Uniliver/Lever Brothers) Office Market Demand Analysis
• Airbnb – Economic Impact Analysis
• QuadReal Property Group – Commerce Court Office Complex Expansion
• CreateTO (formerly Build Toronto) – Multiple Economic, Social and Fiscal Impact Analyses
• DiamondCorp – The Well (Former Globe & Mail) Retail Market Analysis
• Oxford Properties – Metro Toronto Convention Centre Redevelopment
• Oxford Properties – Yorkdale Shopping Centre Economic Impact Analysis
• Westbank – Honest Ed’s Retail Market Demand & Impact Analysis
• Canada Lands Company (CLC) – Downsview Park Market & Economic Advisory Services
• Niagara Parks Commission – Economic Advisory Services
• City of Brampton – University Economic Impact Statement, New Campus Proposal
• YMCA of Greater Toronto – Economic Impact Analysis of Expansion Program
• Burl’s Creek Event Grounds Inc. – WayHome and Boots & Hearts Music & Arts Festivals
Economic Impact Analysis
• University of Manitoba – Regional Economic Impact Analysis
• McMaster University – Burlington Waterfront Campus Economic Benefits Assessment
• University of Ottawa – Regional Economic Impact Analysis