Master Control Schedule Planning and Risk Analysis Method - Gough Krahn Kovalenko v7
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Transcript of Master Control Schedule Planning and Risk Analysis Method - Gough Krahn Kovalenko v7
(PS-‐2046) Master Control Schedule – Planning and Risk Analysis Method
MARTIN GOUGH, P.ENG., MARK KRAHN, PH.D. PMP, YAROSLAV KOVALENKO, MBA
JUNE 30, 2015
BIO of MarAn Gough, P.Eng.
• MarAn is a professional engineer and leads Revay’s large-‐project risk management pracAce. He has more than 35 years of diverse project experience including the project management of energy, water treatment, infrastructure development and industrial projects; the construcAon management of industrial and commercial projects; cost engineering for oil and gas development; and structural design for oil and gas, nuclear power and uAlity and infrastructure development.
• He has been involved in the evaluaAon and analysis of numerous construcAon claims for clients in the petrochemical, industrial and commercial sectors.
• He has taught project management for the University of Alberta Energy Sector Programs, and for the University of Calgary’s Schulich School of Engineering at both undergraduate and graduate levels.
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BIO of Mark Krahn, Ph.D., PMP
• Dr. Mark Krahn has 10 years experience consulAng with Revay’s large-‐project risk management pracAce. He has conducted risk management assignments on a variety of industrial and commercial projects including: pipelines, oil sands, oil & gas, mining; ranging in size from $100M to $25B.
• Mark is formerly co-‐chair of the PMI ConsulAng Community of PracAce; member of the development team for PMI’s PMBOK 4th ediAon.
• He teaches project management and PMP courses at the University of Calgary and with corporate clients
• And something you don’t know about me… earlier this year I hiked the Great Wall of China.
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BIO of Yaroslav Kovalenko, MBA
• Yaroslav leads E&C Risk Management Group at Williams, an energy infrastructure company with operaAons that span from the deep-‐water Gulf of Mexico to the Canadian oil sands.
• He has fibeen years of diverse internaAonal experience in oil and gas industry in Ukraine, Libya, Iraq, Mexico and the United States.
• Yaroslav has a Master’s Degree in InternaAonal RelaAons from Kyiv NaAonal Taras Shevchenko University in Ukraine, and an MBA from The University of Texas at Tyler.
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• He implemented risk management processes across mulAple projects and enterprise-‐wide.
• Something you don’t know about me... English is not my first language … actually it’s my fibh.
THE EMPIRE STATE BUILDING
The project involved 3,400 workers, mostly immigrants from Europe, along with hundreds of Mohawk iron workers, many from the Kahnawake reserve near Montreal. The workers who put in seven million man-‐hours including work on Sundays and holidays earned $15 a day, an excellent rate of pay in the early 1930s.
At 102 floors and a roof height 381 meters, the Empire State Building was constructed in a only 410 days. It was finished three months early and the final costs totaled only $24.7 million ($380 US million 2015 dollars) of the esAmated $43 million.
General contractors: Starrej Brothers and Eken. How they accomplished the task is a case study in early, successful commercial construcAon management.
5 to 14 workers died during the construcAon.
How was it done?
Starrej had no: • No CPM, computers and scheduling sobware • No cellphones or email • No electronic document transfer, version control and storage • No earned value analysis
There can only the be one conclusion how they achieved these results:
Yes, alien technology!
Or perhaps they just had a good:
Agenda
• Context and the Issues
• The Master Control Schedule (MCS) Methodology
• The ImplementaAon Steps of an MCS applicaAon
• Conclusions
• Field TesAng the Methodology
• QuesAons
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CONTEXT AND THE ISSUES
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Context
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Abstract:
The requirement to provide schedule risk assessment (SRA) at early stages of project development, when no detailed schedules have been developed, has proven to be problemaAc.
Then again, this is also true throughout project execuAon as detailed schedules are developed, elaborated and revised.
The requirement of risk assessment to deliver transparent and consistent outcome forecasts is frequently in conflict with the equal requirement of execuAon schedules to direct and monitor day-‐to-‐day progress of the work.
SRA Issues
Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA)… …is actually a planning exercise, yet current SRA best-‐pracAce requires a complete, integrated project schedule prior to analysis.
Schedule ConLngency Management …there is no clear consensus on how to manage schedule conAngency.
Consequently... …lack of consistent conAngency management strategy at key milestones.
Schedule Updates…
…require significant effort, skill and paAence to maintain resulAng in diminishing schedule integrity throughout update cycles.
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Proposed SRA PracAce SoluAons
Recent literature proposes that soluLons lie in:
Increasing the level of effort (Lme and cost) of scheduling…
…and thereby the early delivery and the integrity of complex detailed schedules, or by
Summarizing detailed schedules into simple versions…
…disconnecAng those versions from the actual schedule, and performing approximate SRA exercises on those simple versions.
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THE MASTER CONTROL SCHEDULE (MCS) METHODOLOGY
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A Different SoluAon
Master Control Schedule method…
…disAnguishes planning from scheduling as not simply increasing levels of elaboraAon of the same process but discrete funcAons, each suited to its own applicaAon and each requiring its own skill set.
Project DuraLon Risk Analysis, updates and conLngency management…
…all take place within an integrated workflow planning model of the overall project, and
The Detailed Scheduling…
…required to resource load, manage work and monitor producAvity consists of separate exercises connected to the MCS through counterpart control node milestones.
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The MCS Premise
The Underlying Premise • PLANNING and SCHEDULING are discrete funcAons.
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Requiring different skill sets.
The MCS SoluAon
PLANNING
Workflow Diagrams SRA, schedule planning, conAngency management and updates all take
place within an integrated workflow-‐planning based model (Master
Control Schedule or control node schedule).
SCHEDULING
Gan] Charts
Detailed scheduling is kept at the discipline level and is only Aed to the
MCS through non-‐driving data links at key nodes (or milestones).
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The MCS SoluAon
PLANNING Delivers: • Project team alignment. • Transparent SRA of project duraAon uncertainty. • Auditable conAngency decision management.
• Discipline (or sub-‐project integraAon) • Trusted reports suitable for the short ajenAon span of senior
management and commercial leads.
SCHEDULING Delivers: • Detailed determinisAc Amelines for execuAon. • Increasing elaboraAon throughout the project life-‐cycle.
• Sufficient detail for the considerably longer ajenAon span of discipline and operaAons leads.
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Features of the MCS SoluAon
• SRA at the early project stages…removes the requirement for
detailed execuAon schedules prior to SRA.
• Early-‐stage integrated, overall, baseline project plan…with team
alignment
• A reliable pla^orm for repeatable SRA…trusted by the project
team.
• Transparent conLngency management…at the control nodes.
• Responsibility and accountability…for detailed discipline (or sub-‐
project) schedules, SRA, and monitoring and management remains with
the discipline (or sub-‐project) leads.
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THE IMPLEMENTATION STEPS OF THE MCS
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Step 1 – Develop Workflow Diagrams
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PLANNING: The MCS modelling begins with the development of ADM workflow diagrams for each discipline (or sub-‐project).
Example Regulatory and Permirng ADM Workflow Diagram
Step 2 – IdenAfying Control Nodes
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PLANNING: The project team idenAfies interconnecAng control nodes within each of the discipline workflow diagrams.
Example of InterconnecAng Control Nodes between Engineering and Procurement and ContracAng workflows.
Step 3 – Building the MCS Schedule Model
STILL PLANNING…
• ADM logic once validated by the project leads…is used to develop CPM schedules for each discipline. Each discipline schedule then becomes a sub-‐schedule for the overall Master Control Schedule.
• The Master Control Schedule consists of sub-‐schedules…for each of the disciplines linked through Control Nodes.
• The Control Nodes schedule…consists of a minimum of start and finish nodes for each discipline sub-‐schedule.
• AddiLonal control nodes…are connected at each intermediate inter-‐discipline dependency.
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Step 3 – Example: Engineering & Procurement
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A High-Level SCHEDULE of the PLAN (Still PLANNING really)
Step 4 – Applying DuraAons to the MCS
Once the MCS schedule network is complete:
• …the discipline teams will esLmate duraLons for each acAvity in their ADM workflow diagram.
• …applying these duraAons to each discipline sub-‐schedule will provide a first iteraAon of a determinisLc duraLon for the overall project.
• …likely, it will be the case that the iniLal schedule network will be subject to addiLonal logic and duraLon data reviews and analysis.
• …this will be necessary to maintain alignment both between the separate disciplines and with any calendar requirements of the business case.
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Step 5 – Performing Uncertainty and SRA
• Once there is alignment between business case and discipline
schedules, can conduct SRA.
• Two schedule risk inputs:
• AcAvity duraAon ranges.
• Event risks impacAng acAviAes.
• Ranges determined by discipline teams.
• Event risks determined by full project team.
• Risk miAgaAon conducted by the project lead team.
• StochasAc analysis.
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Step 6 –Building Detailed ExecuAon Schedules
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• Typically, not all disciplines will produce their detailed schedules at the same Lme. Rather the detailed schedules will be developed first for the early disciplines, such as Regulatory and Environmental Permirng and preliminary design.
• To provide an overall uncertainty-‐based forecast for the project, the MCS method only needs to accommodate detailed schedules as they become available.
• The discipline leads (or service providers) will be provided with calendar date probability results for each of their discipline control nodes. From these they will be required to develop their own separate detailed discipline schedules.
• The detailed schedule CPM analysis will be required to return milestone dates for the MCS control node counterparts.
Step 6 –Building Detailed ExecuAon Schedules
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DETAILED SCHEDULING BEGINS HERE…
Step 7 – Performing Regular Schedule Updates
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Regular schedule update sub-‐steps:
1. Discipline teams advise of changes to their ADM workflows.
2. Discipline teams collect and report actual and forecast control node dates to risk assessment team.
3. Risk assessment team updates the MCS schedule network logic.
4. Risk assessment team performs stochasAc analysis with the risk and uncertainty inputs provided by discipline team.
5. Risk assessment team returns the updated control node median dates to the discipline teams.
6. Risk assessment team reports forecast compleAons to the lead team.
The BIG Win: PLANNING and DETAILED SCHEDULING together
Step 8 – Ongoing Schedule Management
The project lead-‐team monitors and manages conLngency…within the MCS schedule.
The discipline leads take responsibility for development and management of their work scope…within the constraints of the MCS control node median
calendar dates.
MCS method provides trusted schedule…data to the project lead-‐team that allows it to prioriAze to the combined metrics of:
• CriAcal and near-‐criAcal workflow paths.
• Control node uncertainty ranges.
• Individual discipline (or sub-‐project) performance.
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MCS Workflow Overview
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MCS ApplicaAon to ReporAng Cycles
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CONTRACT MILESTONE CONTROL NODE DATES
UPDATE CYCLES: CONTRACTORS’ UPDATES: PROGRESS ESTIMATES ACTIVITY ADDS AND DELETIONS LOGIC REVISIONS
MASTER CONTROL SCHEDULE APPROACH
OWNER INTEGRATED MASTER CONTROL SCHEDULE
PROJECT ADM FLOWCHARTS
INCLUDE CONTROL NODE DATES IN CONTRACT SPECIFICATIONS
CONTRACTOR’S DETAILED SCHEDULES WITH COMCOMITANT CONTROL NODE MILESTONES
UPDATE CYCLES: OWNER SUB-‐PROJECT SCHEDULE MONITORING TO CONTROL NODE DATES
OWNER SEPARATE DETAILED SCHEDULES DATA
EVA PROJECT REPORTS FOR EACH SUB-PROJECT Σ PV = PLANNED COST Σ AC = OWNER COST Σ EV = CONTRACTORS’ PROGRESS
EXECUTIVE REPORT: REVIEW EVA AND COMPARE MCS CONTROL NODE DATES
Σ DATA
CONCLUSION
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Conclusion – Key CharacterisAcs
There are several characterisLcs and benefits of this method however the two fundamental concepts are:
• SeparaAng the planning tasks of a project from those of detailed scheduling, and
• Linking detailed discipline schedules and high-‐level integrated plans through control nodes.
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Conclusion – The Key Benefits
• Resolve SRA Issues…The MCS method is an approach with the potenAal to resolve many of the difficulAes associated with the early development, risk analysis, monitoring and updaAng of large project schedules.
• Auditable Schedule Decision Support…MCS offers reliable, consistent schedule uncertainty informaAon criAcal to supporAng the project lead team’s decisions.
• PracLcal Schedule Maintenance…MCS facilitates the maintenance of overall schedule integrity while keeping with the discipline (or sub-‐project) teams accountability and responsibility for delivery of the work within their area.
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FIELD TESTING THE METHODOLOGY
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MCS Field TesAng
• Pilot Project • Major US energy infrastructure project
• AddiAonal Field TesAng • Commercial faciliAes program consisAng of 13 concurrent
projects
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QUESTIONS/COMMENTS? (PLEASE USE MICROPHONE)
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