Massachusetts Senate race poll: Ed Markey holds vulnerable lead as Gabriel Gomez gives Michael...

7/28/2019 Massachusetts Senate race poll: Ed Markey holds vulnerable lead as Gabriel Gomez gives Michael Sullivan run for

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DATE: April 21, 2013

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, CONTACT:

David Stawasz at 413-796-2026 (office) or 413-214-8001 (cell)

POLL FINDS DEMOCRATS HOLD COMMANDING LEADS IN SENATE MATCH-UPS

Republicans lag in name recognition as April 30 primaries near

SPRINGFIELD, MAU.S. House members Ed Markey and Stephen Lynch lead potentialRepublican opponents Gabriel Gomez, Michael Sullivan and Dan Winslow by wide margins inhypothetical match-ups for the U.S. Senate, according to the latest survey from the Western NewEngland University Polling Institute.

The telephone survey, which the Polling Institute conducted April 11-18, 2013 in partnershipwith MassLive.com, the Springfield Republican newspaper and television station WHSM CBS-3,

also found that Markey leads Lynch by 10 points, 44 percent to 34 percent, in the race for theDemocratic nomination for the Senate.

The race for the Republican nomination is less clear, with Gomez, a Cohasset businessman andformer Navy SEAL, and Sullivan, a former U.S. attorney from Abington, battling for the lead

while Winslow, a state representative from Norfolk, trails in third place. The parties willnominate candidates in primaries April 30, with the general election set for June 25.

Voters will choose a senator to serve the remainderof John Kerrys term, which expires in 2014.Kerry resigned from the Senate in February to serve as secretary of state. Governor Deval Patrick

named William Maurice Mo Cowan, a former aide to the governor, to serve as an interimsenator until the general election.

The survey of 480 likely voters found that Markey, first elected to the House in 1976 from

Malden, and Lynch, who has represented South Boston and neighboring areas since 2001, holddouble-digit leads over their potential Republican rivals.

Markey leads Gomez by 15 points (51 to 36 percent), Sullivan by 18 points (52 to 34 percent),and Winslow by 19 points (51 to 32 percent). Lynch holds even larger advantages, leadingGomez by 32 points (58 to 26 percent); Sullivan by 32 points (57 to 25 percent); and Winslow by

36 points (59 to 23 percent). The sample of 480 likely voters has a margin of error of plus orminus 4.5 percentage points.

Tim Vercellotti, director of the Polling Institute and a professor of political science at Western

New England University, said Lynch is padding his lead by running stronger among unenrolledvoters than Markey does in the head-to-head match-ups.

Lynch leads Gomez, Sullivan and Winslow by anywhere from 28 to 34 points among unenrolledvoters, who make up more than half of the electorate in Massachusetts. Markey leads theRepublican candidates by margins of four to 10 points among unenrolled voters.

The survey found that Lynch also is managing to attract support from up to one-quarter of

Republican voters depending on the match-up. Markey draws support from between 9 and 13percent of Republicans depending on the opponent.


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Stephen Lynch has managed to stake out the middle ground in these match-ups, which hasallowed him to build large margins over his potential Republican rivals, Vercellotti said.

But Lynch trails Markey by 10 points in the race for the Democratic nomination, the surveyfound. Among 270 registered Democrats and uenrolled voters who said they are very orsomewhat likely to vote in the Democratic primary, 44 percent said they would vote for Markey

and 34 percent said they would back Lynch. Twenty-one percent of likely Democratic primaryvoters said they are undecided. The margin of error for the sample of 270 likely Democratic

primary voters is plus or minus six percentage points.

Breaking down the Democratic primary vote by party registration offers an insight into thedynamics of that race. Markey leads Lynch by 20 points among registered Democrats. Lynch,

however, leads Markey by six points41 percent to 35 percentamong unenrolled voters.

The poll results give the campaigns a sense of the type of voter each candidate needs tomobilize, Vercellotti said. Significant turnout among registered Democrats plays to Markeys

strength, while increased participation among unenrolled voters gives Lynch a boost.

In addition, among voters who expressed a preference for Lynch or Markey, more than one-third36 percentsaid they might change their mind before the primary. With more than a week leftbefore the primary, each candidate still has a chance to close the deal with primary voters,

Vercellotti said.

Survey results suggest that the race for the Republican nomination may be turning into a two-man

contest between Gomez and Sullivan. The polls sample includes 128 Republican and unenrolledvoters who said they are very or somewhat likely to participate in the Republican primary.

Vercellotti noted that the margin of sampling error for such a small group is quite large, plus orminus nine percentage points.

We cant identify a front-runner given such a large margin of error, but Gomez and Sullivan

appear to have the edge over Winslow at this point, Vercellotti said.

Among likely Republican primary voters, 33 percent said they would support Gomez and 27percent said they would back Sullivan, with Winslow receiving support from nine percent. Thirty

percent of likely Republican primary voters said they are undecided.

The survey provided evidence that the Republican race may be more unsettled than theDemocratic contest. Of the likely Republican primary voters who expressed a candidate

preference, 59 percent said they might change their mind before the primary.

Voters say they have made choices for the Republican primary, but for many voters those

preferences are not strongly held, Vercellotti said.

They survey found that the Republican candidates simply are not as well-known as theDemocratic candidates. Measures of name recognition and favorability found that, among the 480voters who said they are likely to participate in the June 25 election, more than 60 percent said

they had not heard of the Republican candidates or could not offer an opinion about them. Evenamong likely voters in the Republican primary, about half had not heard of or could not offer anopinion about the Republican candidates.


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Although Lynch and Markey also are not universally known, their name recognition scores werehigher. Among likely voters in the June 25 election, 41 percent held a favorable view of Lynch

and 18 percent held an unfavorable view, and likely Democratic primary voters followed similarresponse patterns. About one-third of likely primary and general election voters had not heard ofLynch or could not offer an opinion about him.

Markey has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 39 percent to 24 percent among likely generalelection voters, and 55 percent to 15 percent among likely Democratic primary voters. About one-third of likely general election voters could not offer an opinion of Markey or had not heard ofhim, and the same was true of about one-quarter of likely Democratic primary voters.

With voting in the primaries still several days away and the general election several weeks away,

more than one-third of voters think Markey has the greatest likelihood of winning the Senate seatat this point.

When asked to indicate who they think will win, regardless of whom they actually support, likely

voters in the general election gave the nod to Markey with 38 percent, Lynch with 15 percent,Gomez with three percent, Sullivan with two percent and Winslow with one percent. But more

than one-third of voters said they could not predict who would win the Senate seat.


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METHODOLOGY

The Western New England University Polling Institute survey consists of telephone interviewswith 582 adults ages 18 and older drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digit-dialingApril 1118, 2013. The sample yielded 528 adults who said they are registered to vote in

Massachusetts. Within the sample of registered voters, 480 voters were classified as likely to votein the June 25 special Senate election, 270 voters were identified as likely to vote in the SenateDemocratic Primary on April 30 and 128 adults were identified as likely to vote in the SenateRepublican Primary on April 30. Unless otherwise noted, the figures in this release are based onthe statewide sample of likely voters for the June 25 election and the April 30 primaries.

The Polling Institute dialed household telephone numbers, known as landline numbers, and cellphone numbers for the survey. In order to draw a representative sample from the landline

numbers, interviewers first asked for the youngest male age 18 or older who was home at the timeof the call, and if no adult male was present, the youngest female age 18 or older who was at

home at the time of the call. Interviewers dialing cell phone numbers interviewed the respondentwho answered the cell phone after confirming three things: (1) that the respondent was in a safe

setting to complete the survey; (2) that the respondent was an adult age 18 or older; and (3) thatthe respondent was a resident of Massachusetts. The landline and cell phone data were combinedand weighted to reflect the adult population of Massachusetts by gender, race, age, and county of

residence using U.S. Census estimates for Massachusetts. Complete results of the poll areavailable online atwww.wne.edu/news. The full text of the questionnaire for this survey isavailable at www1.wne.edu/pollinginst.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between

interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population.The sampling error for a sample of 480 likely voters is +/- 4.5 percent at a 95 percent confidenceinterval. Thus if 55 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for a specific candidate, one

would be 95 percent sure that the true figure would be between 50.5 percent and 59.5 percent (55

percent +/- 4.5 percent) had all Massachusetts likely voters been interviewed, rather than just asample. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various

population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Themargin of error for the sample of 270 likely voters in the Democratic primary is plus or minus 6

percentage points, and the margin of error for the sample of 128 likely voters in the Republicanprimary is plus or minus 9 percentage points. Sampling error does not take into account othersources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording,or context effects.

Established in 2005, the Western New England University Polling Institute conducts research onissues of importance to Massachusetts and the region. The Institute provides the Universitys

faculty and students with opportunities to participate in public opinion research. Additional

information about the Polling Institute is available at www1.wne.edu/pollinginst.

Western New England University is a private, independent, coeducational institution

founded in 1919. Located on an attractive 215-acre suburban campus in Springfield,

Massachusetts, the University serves approximately 4,000 students, including 2,500 full-time

undergraduate students, on its main campus and at four sites throughout the

Commonwealth. Undergraduate and graduate programs are offered through the

University's Colleges of Arts and Sciences, Business, Engineering, and Pharmacy, and

graduate programs through the School of Law. In its annual Americas Best Colleges
http://www.wne.edu/newshttp://www.wne.edu/newshttp://www.wne.edu/newshttp://www.wne.edu/news


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ranking, U.S.News & World Report lists Western New England University among the

North Regions Best Universities Masters Category, those which provide a full range of

bachelors and masters programs.

-30-

Editors note: All of the Universitys news releases are available online at

www.wne.edu/news. More information about the Polling Institute is available at

www1.wne.edu/pollinginst.
http://www.wne.edu/newshttp://www.wne.edu/newshttp://www.wne.edu/news


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TABLES

Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following people. Ifyou haven't heard of them or don't have an opinion of them, just tell me and we'll move on.Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (name). (Names of the Senate candidates wererotated in random order in the survey.)

FavorableUnfavorable Ratings for Gabriel Gomez

Favorable UnfavorableHaventheard of

No opinion Refused N*

April 1118,

2013

All registered

voters18% 9% 39% 28% 7% 528

General electionlikely voters

19% 9% 38% 28% 6% 480

Republican

Primary likelyvoters

33% 8% 27% 27% 5% 128

* Subsamples are unweightedNs. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

FavorableUnfavorable Ratings for Michael Sullivan

Favorable UnfavorableHaventheard of

No opinion Refused N*

April 1118,

2013

All registered

voters 18% 11% 34% 28% 8% 528


19% 12% 33% 28% 8% 480

Republican


34% 13% 26% 23% 5% 128

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.


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FavorableUnfavorable Ratings for Dan Winslow

Favorable UnfavorableHavent

heard ofNo opinion Refused N*

April 1118,2013

All registeredvoters

8% 8% 47% 27% 10% 528

General election

likely voters9% 8% 46% 27% 10% 480

RepublicanPrimary likelyvoters

17% 8% 38% 27% 9% 128


FavorableUnfavorable Ratings for Stephen Lynch



April 1118,2013

All registeredvoters

40% 17% 16% 24% 4% 528


41% 18% 14% 23% 4% 480

Democratic


44% 19% 13% 21% 2% 270


FavorableUnfavorable Ratings for Ed Markey



April 1118,

2013

All registered

voters

37% 24% 16% 19% 4% 528


39% 24% 14% 18% 5% 480

Democratic


55% 15% 12% 14% 4% 270



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If the Republican primary were held today, would you vote for Gabriel Gomez, Michael Sullivan, (or) Dan Winslow? (Names were rotated inrandom order.)

INTERVIEWER: IF VOTER IS UNSURE: Toward which candidate are you leaning?

(Asked of voters who identified themselves as registered Republican or unenrolled voters, and who said they are very or somewhat likely to votein the Republican Senate primary on April 30.)

Voter Preferences in April 30 Republican Primary

Gomez Sullivan WinslowWouldnt

voteUndecided/Dont know

Refused N*

April 1118, 2012Likely RepublicanPrimary voters

33% 27% 9% 2% 30% 0% 128

Breakout of likely RepublicanPrimary voters by registration

Republican voters 35% 24% 7% 2% 32% 0% 64

Unenrolled voters 30% 30% 11% 2% 28% 0% 64


Are you very sure of your choice, or might you change your mind before the primary? (Asked of the 89 likely Republican Primary voters whoexpressed a preference in response to the previous question.)

Very Sure About Choice or Might Change MindLikely Voters

Very SureMight Change

MindDont know/

RefusedN

April 1118, 2013Likely RepublicanPrimary voters

41% 59% 0% 89


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If the Democratic primary were held today, would you vote for Stephen Lynch or Ed Markey?(Names were rotated in random order.)

INTERVIEWER: IF VOTER IS UNSURE: Toward which candidate are you leaning?

(Asked of voters who identified themselves as registered Democratic or unenrolled voters, and

who said they are very or somewhat likely to vote in the Democratic Senate primary on April 30.)

Voter Preferences in April 30 Democratic Primary

Lynch MarkeyWouldnt

vote

Undecided

/ Dontknow

Refused N*

April 1118,2013

Likely DemocraticPrimary voters

34% 44% 2% 21% 0% 270

Breakout of

likely DemocraticPrimary voters by

registration

Democratic voters 29% 49% 2% 20% 0% 161

Unenrolled voters 41% 35% 2% 21% 0% 109


Are you very sure of your choice, or might you change your mind before the primary? (Asked ofthe 212 likely Democratic Primary voters who expressed a preference in response to the previous

question.)

Very Sure About Choice or Might Change MindLikely Voters

Very SureMight Change

Mind

Dont know/

RefusedN

April 1118, 2013Likely DemocraticPrimary voters

64% 36% 0% 212


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Next, I would like to ask your views on a series of possible match-ups in the general election setfor June 25th.

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Gabriel Gomez, theRepublican, and Ed Markey, the Democrat, would you vote for Gabriel Gomez, Ed Markey, orsome other candidate for Senate? (If no preference is stated): At this moment do you lean more

toward Gabriel Gomez, the Republican, or more toward Ed Markey, the Democrat?

(Names were rotated in random order in the initial and follow-up questions. Initial preferencesand preferences of leaning voters in the follow-up question were combined in the table below.)

Voter Preferences for the U.S. Senate SeatMarkey versus Gomez

Markey GomezDontknow /

UndecidedRefused N*

April 1118, 2013 Likely voters 51% 36% 12% 1% 480

Party Registration** Democrat 84% 10% 6% 0% 167

Republican 9% 80% 12% 0% 71

Unenrolled 43% 39% 16% 1% 227

Gender Male 51% 41% 7% 1% 218

Female 51% 31% 17% 1% 262

Region Western MA 55% 31% 11% 3% 86

Central MA 36% 53% 11% 0% 60

North / SouthShore

49% 35% 14% 2% 153

Boston and

suburbs 56% 32% 11% 0% 181

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to

100 percent due to rounding.

** Party registration was measured with the following question posed to respondents whoidentified themselves as registered voters: Are you registered as a: Democrat, Republican,

independent or unenrolled voter, Reform, Green, or Libertarian?


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If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Michael Sullivan, theRepublican, and Ed Markey, the Democrat, would you vote for Michael Sullivan, Ed Markey, or

some other candidate for Senate? (If no preference is stated): At this moment do you lean moretoward Michael Sullivan, the Republican, or more toward Ed Markey, the Democrat?

(Names were rotated in random order in the initial and follow-up questions. Initial preferences

and preferences of leaning voters in the follow-up question were combined in the table below.)

Voter Preferences for the U.S. Senate SeatMarkey versus Sullivan

Markey Sullivan

Dont

know /Undecided

Refused N*


Party Registration Democrat 86% 8% 6% 0% 167

Republican 12% 75% 13% 0% 71

Unenrolled 42% 37% 19% 2% 227Gender Male 52% 37% 9% 2% 218

Female 51% 30% 18% 1% 262


Central MA 42% 36% 22% 0% 60

North / SouthShore

51% 35% 11% 3% 153

Boston andsuburbs

53% 34% 13% 0% 181

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to100 percent due to rounding.


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If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Dan Winslow, the Republican,and Ed Markey, the Democrat, would you vote for Dan Winslow, Ed Markey, or some other

candidate for Senate? (If no preference is stated): At this moment do you lean more toward DanWinslow, the Republican, or more toward Ed Markey, the Democrat?



Voter Preferences for the U.S. Senate SeatMarkey versus Winslow

Markey Winslow

Dont

know /Undecided

Refused N*



Republican 13% 76% 11% 0% 71


Female 50% 29% 21% 1% 262


Central MA 39% 41% 20% 0% 60

North / SouthShore

50% 34% 13% 3% 153

Boston andsuburbs

52% 31% 17% 0% 181

* Subsamples are unweightedNs, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to100 percent due to rounding.


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If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Gabriel Gomez, the

Republican, and Stephen Lynch, the Democrat, would you vote for Gabriel Gomez, StephenLynch, or some other candidate for Senate? (If no preference is stated): At this moment do youlean more toward Gabriel Gomez, the Republican, or more toward Stephen Lynch, the Democrat?


Voter Preferences for the U.S. Senate SeatLynch versus Gomez

Lynch GomezDontknow /

UndecidedRefused N*



Republican 23% 68% 9% 0% 71Unenrolled 54% 26% 18% 2% 227

Gender Male 60% 27% 11% 2% 218

Female 56% 26% 18% 1% 262


Central MA 48% 37% 14% 0% 60

North / SouthShore

63% 27% 8% 3% 153

Boston andsuburbs

58% 23% 18% 1% 181



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If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Michael Sullivan, theRepublican, and Stephen Lynch, the Democrat, would you vote for Michael Sullivan, Stephen

Lynch, or some other candidate for Senate? (If no preference is stated): At this moment do youlean more toward Michael Sullivan, the Republican, or more toward Stephen Lynch, theDemocrat?


Voter Preferences for the U.S. Senate SeatLynch versus Sullivan

Lynch SullivanDontknow /

UndecidedRefused N*



Republican 19% 66% 15% 0% 71Unenrolled 54% 24% 21% 2% 227

Gender Male 55% 31% 12% 2% 218

Female 59% 20% 20% 1% 262


Central MA 46% 33% 21% 0% 60

North / SouthShore

59% 28% 10% 3% 153

Boston andsuburbs

58% 22% 19% 1% 181



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If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Dan Winslow, the Republican,and Stephen Lynch, the Democrat, would you vote for Dan Winslow, Stephen Lynch, or some

other candidate for Senate? (If no preference is stated): At this moment do you lean more towardDan Winslow, the Republican, or more toward Stephen Lynch, the Democrat?



Voter Preferences for the U.S. Senate SeatLynch versus Winslow

Lynch Winslow

Dont

know /Undecided

Refused N*



Republican 25% 66% 9% 0% 71


Female 60% 19% 20% 1% 262


Central MA 47% 33% 20% 0% 60

North / SouthShore

60% 27% 10% 3% 153

Boston andsuburbs

61% 19% 19% 1% 181

* Subsamples are unweightedNs, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to100 percent due to rounding.


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How satisfied are you with the field of candidates for the special Senate election?

Satisfaction With the Field of Candidates for the Special Senate Election

Verysatisfied

Somewhatsatisfied

Not verysatisfied

Not at allsatisfied

Dontknow /

Refused

N*

April 1118,2013


18% 50% 15% 5% 12% 480

Breakout ofgeneral election

likely voters byparty registration

Democrats 28% 52% 9% 4% 7% 167

Republicans 3% 62% 20% 7% 8% 71

Unenrolled voters 15% 47% 19% 5% 14% 227


Regardless of whom you plan to support for the Senate, who do you think will win the specialSenate election on June 25?

(Interviewers: Do not read choices. Wait for the respondent to volunteer an answer.)

Expected Winner of June 25th

Election

Stephen Lynch 15%

Ed Markey 38%

Gabriel Gomez 3%

Michael Sullivan 2%

Dan Winslow 1%

One of the Democratic candidates 2%

One of the Republican candidates 1%

Other 1%

Dont know 37%

Refused 1%

N (Likely general election voters) 480

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