Masaaki Shi kki Shirakawa - Bank of Japan Changes and MacroeconomicDemographic Changes and...
Transcript of Masaaki Shi kki Shirakawa - Bank of Japan Changes and MacroeconomicDemographic Changes and...
Demographic Changes and MacroeconomicDemographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance: Japanese Experiences
May 30, 2012BOJ IMES ConferenceBOJ-IMES Conference
ki Shi kMasaaki ShirakawaGovernor of the Bank of Japan
Chart 1
D hi Ch i JDemographic Changes in Japan160
Child and aged populationForecast
million
120
140Child and aged populationWorking-age populationTotal populationEmployed persons
Forecast
80
100
40
60
0
20
40
01970 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60CY
Note: Child population working age population and aged population refer to the number of persons under 15 years those between 15
1
Note: Child population, working-age population, and aged population refer to the number of persons under 15 years, those between 15and 64 years, and those over 64 years, respectively.
Sources: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Eff t f R id P l ti A i
Chart 2
Effects of Rapid Population Aging
Real GDP Growth Rate Real GDP Growth RateReal GDP Growth Rateper Capita
Average for 2000-10, percent
Real GDP Growth Rateper Working-Age Person
Average for 2000-10, percent Average for 2000-10, percent2.02.02.0
1 2
1.6
1 2
1.6
1 2
1.6
0.8
1.2
0.8
1.2
0.8
1.2
0 0
0.4
0 0
0.4
0 0
0.4
0.0JP US UK Euro
areaDE FR
0.0JP US UK Euro
areaDE FR
0.0JP US UK Euro
areaDE FR
2
Note: A working-age person refers to those between 15 and 64 years old.Sources: World Bank; Haver.
G th R t f W ki A P l ti
Chart 3
Growth Rate of Working-Age Population
5 year-on-year change, percent
3
4 Forecast
2
3
0
1
-2
-1 JapanUnited StatesKoreaChina
-3
2
1955 65 75 85 95 05 15 25 35 45 55
China
CY
3Sources: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research; United Nations.
Japanese Age Structure in the High-Growth EraChart 4
p g g19751955
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4100
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4million million
80
90
100
Males Femalesage
80
90
100
Males Femalesage
50
60
70
50
60
70
20
30
40
20
30
40
0 00 20 40 60 81 01 21 40
10
20
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.40
10
20
Males Females
W ki l ti ti 67 7% 67 8%
Males Females
W ki l ti ti 60 8% 61 8%
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4million million
Working-age population ratio 67.7% 67.8%
4Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Working-age population ratio 60.8% 61.8%
Total and Working-Age PopulationChart 5
2 5year-on-year change, percent
g g pGrowth Rate of the Working-Age Population Growth Rate of the Population
2 0year-on-year change, percent
1.5
2.0
2.5
1 0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1 5
-1.0
-0.5JapanUnited StatesUnited Kingdom -1.0
-0.5
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
1955 65 75 85 95 05 15 25 35 45 55
gFranceGermanyAdvanced economies' average
CY-2.0
-1.5
1955 65 75 85 95 05 15 25 35 45 55
Japan United States United Kingdom France Germany Advanced economies' average
Working age population 0 74 0 81 0 59 0 49 0 23 0 35
1955 65 75 85 95 05 15 25 35 45 55CY
Growth Rate in 2010, percent
1955 65 75 85 95 05 15 25 35 45 55
Working-age population -0.74 0.81 0.59 0.49 -0.23 0.35Total population 0.05 0.89 0.60 0.58 -0.06 0.41
5Sources: United Nations; National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
R i i i th J T t l F tilit R t F t
Chart 6
Revisions in the Japanese Total Fertility Rate Forecast2.4
2.0
2.2 Forecast in 1976
Forecast in1986
Replacement ratio
1.8 Forecast in1992
in1986
Forecasti 1997
1.4
1.6 Forecast in 2002
Forecast
in1997
1.2 Forecast in 2006
Forecast in 2012
1.0 1964 70 76 82 88 94 00 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60CY
6
Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare; National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
Newspaper Citations on Low Birth Rate Chart 7
p pand Population Aging
number of articles
5,000
6,000"Low birth rate" or "population aging"
"Bubble"
4,000
"Non-performing loan"
3,000
1,000
2,000
01991 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11CY
7
Note: Number of articles found in The Nikkei, The Nikkei Business Daily, and The Nikkei MJ.Source: Nikkei Telecom.
Decomposition of Real GDP Growth in Japan
Chart 8
Decomposition of Real GDP Growth in Japan
6 average of year-on-year changes, percent
4
5 Productivity (real GDP per employed person)
the number of employed persons
Real GDP
+0.92
3
0.9
+0.8
0
1 Forecast
+0.5 -0.3
-0.6 -0.8-1.2
-2
-1
0
Note: Fiscal-year basis. The rates of change in the number of employed persons from the 2010s onward are calculated using the population outlook (medium variant) and the projected labor force participation rates (assuming the labor force
-2 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s
8
p p ( ) p j p p ( gparticipation rates in each age/sex group to remain the same as those in 2010).
Sources: Cabinet Office; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
Labor Participation of Female WorkersChart 9
pLabor Participation of Female Workers in Japan Comparison of Labor Participation of
Female Workers in 2010t
90
100percent
90
100percent
60
70
80
60
70
80
40
50
60
1990 40
50
60
Japan
20
30
1990
2000
201020
30United States
Germany
Sweden
0
10
15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65-
2010
age0
10
15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65-
9
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65age 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; OECD.
“The Spending Wave”
Chart 10
p g
Housing Starts Domestic Car Sales Real Output in the Medical and Health Care Industryy
1.6
1.8 million
5million
50
60trillion yen at constant 2000 prices
1.2
1.4
3
4
40
50
0.8
1.0 2
20
30
0.6 1980 85 90 95 00 05 10CY
11980 85 90 95 00 05 10
101980 85 90 95 00 05 10
Note: Average in the last five years. The value in 2010 for “Real Output in the Medical and Health Care Industry” is calculated using year-on-year changes from 2006 to 2008.
Sources: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism; Japan Automobile Dealers Association; Japan Mini Vehicles
10
y , , p ; p ; pAssociation; Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry.
Fiscal Balance in JapanChart 11
p
FY 2012 Budget (General Account)
Social Security Expenditure by Category
55trillion yen
( )Pensions
51.7 tril. yen(51.8%)
45
50
Medical care30.8 tril. yen30
35
40 National debt service
21.9 tril. yen (24%)
Others 25.4 tril. yen
(28%)30.8 tril. yen
(30.9%)
Welfare and 20
25
30Local
allocation tax grants
16 6 tril yenSocialothers
17.3 tril. yen(17.3%)
10
15
16.6 tril. yen (18%)
Social security
26.4 tril. yen (29%)
0
5
1970 75 80 85 90 95 00 05FY 09
11
Note: The scope of social security expenditure is based on the International Labor Organization standards for international comparison.Sources: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research; Ministry of Finance.
1970 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 09
Chart 12
Household Financial AssetsHousehold Financial Assets
90%
100%
70%
80%
90%
Others
Investment trusts
50%
60%
70% Investment trusts
Equities
30%
40%
50%Bonds
Life insurance
10%
20% Deposits
0%20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-age
12
Note: As of 2011.Source: Central Council for Financial Services Information
Ratios of Population over 65 Years by Region
Chart 13
Ratios of Population over 65 Years by Region
Under 20.020.0–22.923 0 25 9
Ratio of aged population, %
23.0–25.926.0 and over
13Note: As of 2010.Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Working Age Population Growth and Inflation:
Chart 14
Working-Age Population Growth and Inflation: Cross-Country Comparison
1990 20001990s 2000s
12year-on-year change, percent
8year-on-year change, percent
8
10
r
567
2
4
6
GD
Pde
flato
r
1234
DP
defla
tor
2
0
2G
Correlation coefficient:0.07Japan
2-101G
D
Correlation coefficient:0.67Japan
-2-1 0 1 2 3
Working-age population growth percent
-2-1 0 1 2 3
Working-age population growth percent
14
Note: For the 24 countries where the data are available among those that joined the OECD by the 1990s.Source: OECD.
Money Growth and InflationChart 15
10
15(-0.18)(0.62)
12025
(0.59)(0.79)
United States France
0
5Adjusted Money Growth (% points)
05
1015
-51970 80 90 00 10
Infration Rate (%)-5
0
1970 80 90 00 10FY
U it d Ki d Japan
152025
(0.31)(0.65)20
30(0.17)(0.49)
United Kingdom Japan
05
1015
-10
0
10
-50
1970 80 90 00 10-20
1970 80 90 00 10Notes: 1. Figures in parentheses are correlation coefficients of 1970-1994 and 1995-2011.
15
g p2. Money growth is selected as M2 for the US and Japan, M3 for France, and M4 for the UK, respectively.
Adjusted money growth is defined as money growth minus real GDP growth. 3. Because of the data discontinuity of Germany in 1990’s, French is selected as the representative of the euro area.
Sources : International Monetary Fund; Statistics by individual countries.
Population Growth and Inflation in Japan
Chart 16
Population Growth and Inflation in Japan
Population and the GDP DeflatorPotential Growth Rate and Expected Inflation in
the Medium to Long Term
9
4
5 Working-age populationLabor force
y/y chg., percent y/y chg., percent
3 0
3.5 4.5
Potential growth rate per capita
percent percent
6 3
4 Labor forceGDP deflator (right scale)
2.5
3.0
3.0 Expected inflation (right scale)
3
1
2 1.5
2.0 1.5
0 0
1
0.5
1.0 0.0
Note: Lagged values are used for population growth because they precede inflation by a year Expected inflation is the inflation
-3 -1 1960 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10CY
0.0 -1.51991 96 01 06 11FY
16
Note: Lagged values are used for population growth because they precede inflation by a year. Expected inflation is the inflation outlook for CPI in the next 6 to 10 years by the Consensus Forecast (average of the April and October surveys in each year).
The potential growth rate is calculated by the Bank of Japan.Sources: Bank of Japan; Consensus Forecast; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Real per Capita GDP Growth Rate in Advanced Economies
Chart 17
Real per Capita GDP Growth Rate in Advanced Economies
5 Japan United States
ten-year average growth rate, percent
4
Japan United StatesGermany FranceUnited Kingdom SpainItaly
2
3
1
2
0
-1 1971-
8073-82
75-84
77-86
79-88
81-90
83-92
85-94
87-96
89-98
91-00
93-02
95-04
97-06
99-08
01-10
CY
17
Sources: United Nations; Statistics by individual countries.
C t A t T d B l d I B l
Chart 18
Current Account, Trade Balance and Income Balance
35trillion yen
25
30
35Trade balance Service balanceIncome balance Current transfersCurrent account
15
20
5
10
-5
0
-101996 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11FY
18
Sources: Ministry of Finance; Bank of Japan.
Labor Participation of Female Workers and Fertility RateChart 19
p yPrefectures in Japan15 OECD Giants
2 0total fertility rate
2 4total fertility rate
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4 y
United States
1.6
1.8
2.0 United KingdomFrance
Sweden
1.2
1.4
1.6
Japan Germany
Canada
1.0
Correlation coefficient: 0.381.2
1.4 Japan GermanyItaly
KoreaC l ti ffi i t 0 46
0.8 60 65 70 75 80 85
Labor participation for female workers d
Correlation coefficient: 0.38
1.0 40 60 80 100
Labor participation for female
Correlation coefficient: 0.46
19Note: The left panel includes the15 largest countries in terms of nominal GDP in 2009. The right panel shows the values in 2010. Sources: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; OECD.
aged 30 to 44, percentLabor participation for female workers, percent
L b P ti i ti f A d W k
Chart 20
Labor Participation of Aged WorkersLabor Participation of
Aged Workers (over 60) in Japan Labor Participation by Sex in Japan
50
55
TotalMales
percent
90
100percent
40
45
MalesFemales
70
80
35
40
50
60
25
30
30
40
15
20
0
10
20 Males
Females
20Note: The statistics do not include the data for Fukushima, Miyagi, and Iwate prefectures in 2011.Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
151990 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10CY
015- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65-
Chart 21
Population Aging and Health Care Expenditure
Japan Germany United States France United Kingdom
Population over 65 Years(Change from 2000 to 2010, percent) 33 25 16 11 11
E dit f H lth C
Source: United Nations; OECD
Expenditure for Health Care(Change from 2000 to 2008, percent) 11 25 74 49 85
Source: United Nations; OECD.
21
G D ti P d t d G N ti l I i J
Chart 22
Gross Domestic Product and Gross National Income in Japan
GDP and GNI Income Balance
18
20Portfolio investment incomeDirect investment income
trillion yen
116
118 Gross domestic productG i l i di i
CY 2000=100
14
16 OthersIncome balance
110
112
114 Gross national income - trading gains
8
10
12
104
106
108
4
6
8
98
100
102
0
2
1996 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 11FY
94
96
1996 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 11CY
22
Sources: Cabinet Office; Ministry of Finance; Bank of Japan.
FY
Chart 23
F i O t d Di t I t tForeign Outward Direct Investment
90 percent of nominal GDP
70
80 Japan
United States
50
60 Germany
France
United Kingdom
30
40
g
10
20
0 1990 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10CY
23
Source: OECD.
Chart 24
L b P d ti it E l d P b C tLabor Productivity per Employed Person by Country
United States
Italy
France
Germany
Canada
United Kingdom
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Japan
h d USD
24
Note: Average in 2000s.Source: World Bank.
thousand USD