1988-11 Spring 1988

A Cost Anal ysis for Determining SOUTHERN METHODIST UNI\ the Optimal Method for an

Inventory Expansion

Rex Cramer Stephen Witherington

MARYKAY COSMETICS

A Cost Analysis For Determining The

Optimal Method For An Inventory Expan

OREM 4390

MAY 11,1988

DEPARTMENT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND APPLIED SCIENCE

DALLAS, TEXAS 75275

MARYKAY COSMETICS

A Cost Analysis For Determining The

Optimal Method,. For An Inventory Expansion

OREM 4390

MAY 11,1988

by Rex Cramer

Stephen Witherington

I1) INTRODUCTION:

MaryKay Cosmetics is a Dallas based corporation involved

in the development, manufacture, and distribution of an

integrated line of cosmetics and accesories. Until the 1970's,

MaryKay was a privately held company. The company became

public in the latter part of the 70's in order to provide the

capital necessary to support a forecasted growth rate of

30%+/yr in sales. The injection of new capital would provide the

means by which all aspects of the corporation could grow and

meet its potential. Most notably, the manufacturing capabilities

would benefit the most in the form of increased production

capacity. For several years after the public offering, the

corporation did extremely well. The counter-cyclical nature

of MaryKay's sales with respect to the national economy

dictated a tremendous growth in the sales force. Due to the

dynamics of the two income family, and its reliance on two

sources of income, a downturn in the national economy means

a corresponding increase in unemployment. In order to

compensate for any lost income during these times, families

augment their income by either finding a new employer, or

enhancing their existing income through alternate means.

During these economic downturns, MaryKay a rise in sales

force above their normal expectations derived from internal

growth projections in direct proportion to the severity of the

recession. The recessionary state of the national economy

I pg 1

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Uduring the the late 70's and early 80's, enabled MaryKay's

expansion to continue due to product advances and the

growth in sales force augmented by the state of the national

economy. The bright growth prospects fostered some of the

most spectacular expansion plans imagined. The ideal position

that the company would had envisioned was one in which

all aspects, fron4nanufacturing to distribution, would exist

at a centralized facility. The location of this expansion would

be at the corner of Stemmons freeway (I - 35) and the N.W.

Highway in Dallas. The campus environment of this plan

could have provided the ideal setting for continued growth

of the corporation. The land had been purchased, the Glamour

building, a showcase facility, was in full production, and the

cornerstone of the entire plan was being constructed. The

centralized corporate warehouse would provide the necessary

storage space for growth into the next century. This warehouse

would not be an ordinary conventional facility, a state of the art

advanced storage and retrival system (AS/RS) was constructed

to meet the needs of the entire corporation (see exibit 1 for

a detailed overview).

In late 1982, the price of oil collapsed from a high of

$39/bbl to a low of $9/bbl. The inflationary fears fostered

by the 1970's dramatic rise in energy costs abated, and the

national economy began the long road to recovery.

Unemployment levels subsided and the immediate impact on

MaryKay's cash flow was sufficient to foster the concern over

I pg2

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a possible hostile takeover. The assets of the corporation were

now worth more than the net present value of its forseeable

cash flows. In order to avoid the possible loss of control of the

corporation to an outside source the board decided to initate

a leveraged buyout (LBO). This consists of a tender offer for

all of the outstanding publicly traded shares in the corporation,

which eliminates the voting rights on corporate matters that

ownership of common stock entitles its owner to. The

immediate result of this action was debt levels which

threatened the ability of the company to remain competitive.

To alleviate this position, assets were sold, and expansion plans

severly curtailed. The land set aside for future growth was sold

and operations condensed. The net effect of this action was

a severly limited corporation in terms of cash flow and possible

avenues of expansion.

2) PRELIMINARY INTENTIONS:

A Routing Study

After consulting with the management of MaryKay

I we were given permission to pursue a study concerning

I possible improvements in the routing of forklifts used in the

transportation of raw materials to the production lines. The

objective of this study was to maximize the efficiency of

inventory processing in order to obtain the best possible flow

I of raw materials throughout the manufacturing warehouse.

I pg3

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IA preliminary investigation turned up the conclusion that

a 20% inefficiency existed in the system. This result concurred

with a much more detailed and accurate study performed by

the in house MIS department. By taking the existing

three months of inventory information on the computer system

at MaryKay, and determining the exact amount of time spent

processing the inventory as a whole, then subtracting the

amount of time used for re-stocking and transportation from

the AS/RS warehouse. We then took this figure and when

divided by the total amount of time available in the system

gave us a good estimate of the system efficiency. Our

investigation now centered on how to alleviate this area of

concern. Several hours of consulting with personel in the

Production and Inventory Control department acknowledged

that the majority of discrepancy between the expected and

actual values was caused by the lack of available storage I facilities in the manufacturing warehouse. Barring this

condition, the actual efficiency of the forklifts would rise to

95+%. The current capacity of the manufacturing warehouse

is 6500 palates, the current demand is 8500+ palates. The

differential is stored at the AS/RS facility approximately 3 miles

from the manufacturing facility. Figuring in the 2 day

tunaround for raw materials to reach the manufacturing facility,

and the re-palitizing of raw materials not used in the day's

production run, expected efficiencies would climb significantly.

In addition to the efficiency situation, future growth prospects

I pg4

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also dictated that the storage concern be addressed.

PREDICTIONS FOR GROWFH:

Time Frame:

1988: sales increase: 20% (possibly 10% greater)

1989: sales increase: 20%

1990: sales increase: 10%

I Total: 50%

Inventory levels will become overly burdensome within lyr.,

possibly as soon as the fourth quater of 1988. The Christmas

inventory alone will consist of 44 trucks with approximately

50 palates per. Effective storage will want to be increased

over the next three years 50%, or approximately 4000+ spaces

to meet rising demand due to increased sales volumes. With

this information in hand our task was to determine all possible

avenues of expansion and determine which was optimal given

the situation at MaryKay. Due to the highly leveraged condition

of the corporation our choices were narrowed in light of the

cash flow constraint. The final options we evaluated are

presented in matrix form on the following page with a

discussion of each on the following pages.

I LI I I pg5

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TYPES OF WAREHOUSING

SATELITE LOCAL AS/RS

RACKS: 15,000 15,000 0

FORKLIFTS: 120,000(4) 90,000(3) 0

MAINTENCE EQ. 5,000 0 0

LABOR:

SUPERVISOR: 30,000 0 0

RECORDS (CLERKS) 30,000 (2@ $7/HR) 0 0

DRIVERS(FORKS.) 72,000 (4@$9IHR) 36,000 0

MAINTENCE 21,000 (1@$10/HR) 0 0

TRANSPORTATION: 220,000 0 180,000

WAREHOUSE: 375,000 375,000 0

DATA LINE: 0 0 10,000

TOTALS: $ 888,000 $ 516,000 $ 190,000

BREAK DOWN: TRANSPORTATION:

RIG: $ 125,000 / 500,000mi. = $ 0.25/mi

FUEL & MAINT. = $ 0.25/mi.

TOTAL

$ 0.50/mi.

pg 6

ICOSTS CONTINUED:

I8 TRIPS FROM AS/RS (RAW MATERIAL REQ'S)

4 TRIPS TO AS/RS (FINISHED GOODS) I I 12 TRIPS @ 3M1 = 36M1. FOR 360 DAYS = 20,0001YR/RIG

DRIVER: 40,000/ YR/RIG

IFOR AS/RS: 3 RIGS @ A TOTAL COST OF $ 180,000

I FOR SATELITE : 4 RIGS @ A TOTAL COST OF $220,000

THE NUMBER OF RIGS WAS DETERMINED BY FINDING THE EFFECTIVE I UTILIZATION OF THE NETWORK USING SLAMII,A SIMULATION LANGUAGE.

The code for the simulation is presented on the following

I page. Under the conditions specified by the future growth the

effective utilization of 2 rigs would reach 98+% as seen from I exhibit 2. This lead us to increase the number of available rigs

I

to 3, and the utilization correspondingly dropped to 77.4%,

which is found by dividing the average utilization by the total

Iamount of resourse available (taken from exhibit 3

2.3224/3.00) This is a much more reasonable estimate in light

of problems that may arise due to future growth or mechanical

difficulties. This same scenario was done for the satelite

warehouse with the conderations of increased distance and

the corresponding increase in time consumption taken into

account. This was one of the areas we were most concerned

with due to its impact on the cost considerations in our

option evaluation.

pg 7

I I I I I I p I I I I I I I I I I I I

SLAMII SIMULATION CODE:

GEN,MARYKAY,MK1 ,4/20/88,5;

LIMITS, 8,10,200;

NETWORK;

RESOURCE/i ,TRUCK(3),6,2; the no. of available trucks is 3

CREATE, RNORM (60,1);

ASRS AWAIT(2/4), TRUCK/l, BALK(OVER)J;

ACTIVITY/3, 30; for as/rs travel time = 30 minutes one way

UNLD QUEUE(4);

ACTIVITY/5, 60; time for both unloading & loading a truck = 60

mm

FREE FREE, TRUCK/i, 1;

ACTIVITY, , , USET;

CREATE, RNORM(120,1); this creates the finished goods

FINV AWAIT(6/3), TRUCK/l, BALK(FOVR), 1;

ACTIVITY, 30;

FULD QUEUE(7);

ACTIVITY, 60,, FREE:

USET COLCT,NRUSE(1), AVG. USE OF TRUCKS, 13/1.9990/.0001;

OVER COLCT, INT(2), TIME BETWEEN ABALKS, 13/90/600;

FOVR COLCT, INT(6), TIME BETWEEN FBALKS, 13/90/600;

TERM;

ENDNETWORK;

INIT,0,7680;

FIN;

pg 8

I I 3) OPTIONS EVALUATION

IAt this stage of our analysis we examined the prospects

of five seperate options, requiring additional data and analysis.

The first of the new options considered was to increase the

number of storage spaces in the current warehouse. The

current warehouse used for suppling the manufacturing lines,

has 6500 spaces utilized for storage and is completely full. Any

extra inventory is then shipped and placed into the AS/RS. At

this time approximately 2000 spaces are allocated to excess

inventory from the manufacturing warehouse. Upon closer

observation the current manufacturing (MK) warehouse did

have some possible extra space available. It was concluded that

approximately 200 spaces could be alloted to inventory, if the

accounting records on the back two rows were removed. Some

additional spaces could also be added by completing the fifth

level storage spaces and possibly adding extra spaces on the

end of some of the rows. estimated about another 400

spaces might be obtained( a total of 600 spaces). However, we

did not see any feasible means of increasing the current storage

capacity to over 2000 more spaces. The next option to solve

the inventory overflow, was to modernize the MK warehouse

and narrow the required space needed for aisle width. This

concept upon further analysis proved to be to costly for Mary

Kay Cosmetics to consume at this present date due to their L.B.O.

in 1983. To continue our data analysis of the situation we then

arranged a meeting with Tracy Clinton head of the

I

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manufacturing storage facilities and discussed what we

conceived to be the only three options available to us and the

feasibility of each.

With the conclusion of the meeting, we began an

immediate analysis of the first of the three options. The first

option is to lease a satelite warehouse in the surrounding area

the trinity valley to handle the overflow of inventory from the

MK warehouse. This analysis includes the minimum costs

required for labor, equipment, and transportation, to impliment

the use of the satelite warehouse. Through our analysis of the

situation we determined that new equipment consisting of: four

forklifts, racks, and maintence eqpt. would be needed at

minimum. The increased labor required to man the new facility

would include the following:

One warehouse supervisor

Two records clerks

Four forklift operators

One maintainence man

increased transportation would require the use of one

new truck and driver. After doing a cost analysis of this

option it was determined that this one was more costly than the

other two.

The next option that was feasible for our project is the

option for using the warehouse located directly behind the MK

warehouse. This warehouse which is approximatly 60 yards

from the current facility would be available for move-in in as

short of a period as 6 months. The equipment required for this

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option would include 3 forklifts, a new set of racks, and a

runway built in between the two facilites for forklift travel.

The only new labor required would be the forklift operators

and a software programmer to enter the new position into

computer. For the new runway, no new entrances would need

to be made, dock doors already exist in the correct places. As

seen on the cost analysis sheet provided, the impjmentation of

this option is best when/if the AS/RS warehouse is decidely

sold.

The final option we derived, was the installation of two

voice grade data lines between the MK warehouse and the

AS/RS warehouse. This option would require a crosstalk

communications network to be installed between the two

warehouses, thus the supervisor in the MK warehouse could

order inventory directly. This would enable inventory supplies

to be ordered on an over night turn over and eliminate the

current two day turn around. As seen on the cost analysis sheet

this is the least costly of the three choices. It also allows for

better potential use of the AS/RS warehouse which is currently

only at 30% effiecency and also utilizes the truck transportation

both ways on its route to and from the two warehouses.

In essence, the best result we acquired and our

recommendation to the managment of Mary Kay Cosmetics is

the utilization of a data line communications link-up for the

manufacturing warehouse to the AS/RS warehouse. This

system if properly coordinated will increase the current

stocking effiecency to approximately 97% from 80%. It will

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utilize the trucking routes close to 80% from 50%, and with the

increase in stock handled in the AS/RS warehouse, we still see

the possibility of enough warehouse space necessary for

manufacturing inventory clear into the next century.

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Li I I Li I I pg 12

I

AS/RS Warehouse Data Sheet•

• .

IA. Building Information

l.- . Useable storage positions

2. Square feet . . - AS/RS - Dock Staging - AGVs Guide Path - Mezzanine - Total

• 3. Dock spaces

Shipping and Receiving Maintenance

4. Building heights

High Bay I.. Low Bay

I

22,640, S

54,000 62,000 16,000 26,000

158,000 (6,800 useable office space)

18 2

80 ft. 30 ft.

I

B. Storage and Retrieval Equipment (System Vendor-Eaton Kenway)

•1. 7 - Unit load S/R machines, single mast, single rail, 2 speed double deep shuttle, 2500 pound capacity, processor controlled with maintenance

Icontrols on lift carriage and KE118 end of aisle manual controllers.

2. 1 -22,6.40 net storage position rack supported structure. 7 aisles double deep storage, 64 spaces long and 13 spaces high

I

3. .1 - Fire protection system including in rack sprinkler system with . --.. ____________

4. 1 - S/R machine electrical system.. -----• --

5. System load activity design - 194 loads per hour (110 hr in/84 hr out)

I. GWC (Guide Wire Controlled) Vehicle Transportation System

1. 20 GWC Vehicles 2500 lb. capacity 2. 1 GWC zone controller

• 3000-ft. of guide path

I 4. 2 sizing stations 5. 3 bar code scanners 6. 35 sets of batteries I 7. . 6 carts for batteries S

8. 15 battery charging stations 9. 10 hand controllers -

10. 2 fully automatic Lantec stretch wrap stations

Software/Firmware Control System

1. 2 PDP 11/44 CPU with Winchester disk drives 2. 3 Intel 286 microprocessors with Winchester disk drives I 3. 17 VT 100 CRT's 4. 16 ticket printers .15. 6..

5 line printers 1 Isolationtransforrrier

7. 1 UPS battery supply power unit 8. All cable and conduit . I 9. 16 - Interuiec bar code wand scanners (system security) U 10. 1 - Liebert tem p erature control unit

11. 3 - PCP 11 hand held bar code scanners

I• Powered Conveyor (Chain type)

1. 13 Indexing receiving conveyor lanes with 15 positions each.

2. 8 Shipping conveyors with 6 positions each.

3. 2 Shipping conveyors with 15 positions each.

4. 6 Shipping conveyors with 5 positions, each (not installed)

.5. 2 Receiving conveyors with 5 positions each (not installed)

• 6. 1 Shipping conveyor with 5 positions (rush area)

7. . 2 Shipping conveyors with 6 positions each (QA & Vendor)

Non Powered Pick Up/Deposit Stations (64 total)

I

i. 27 Case pick platforms. 2. 16 End of aisle (main level) 3. 14 End of aisle (mezzanine) I 4. 2 Shortage output 5. 4 Reject stations (not installed)

6. 1 Less than case area

G. Pallet Load Characteristics

I

i. Current load envelope - 46" x 46"

2. —Current MK. pallet size - 42" x 42" two way, single wing, underside is 42" x 36'

i

(System was engineered for conversion to 48" x 48" envelope if required)

3. Load heights - 47" and 100" including pallets

4. Net positions - 22,700 (19,116 47" loads & 3,584 100" loads)

5. Maximum load weight design - 2500 lb. I. I .

p!1+ ii 0 i I. c e7.)1F

I c,Jt,

I a 0 IDJ

,

uZ. 00

icIJ/&, Opr Cf

.1 . I

*IC FILE STATISTI1S'

FILE ASSOC NODE NUMBER LABEL/TYPE

H I 2 ASRS AWAIT

H 3 I .4 UNID QUEUE

5 6 FINVAWAIT 7 FULO QUEUE

i8 .................... -. 9 CALENDAR

**REGULAR. ACTIVITY STATISTICS**

H ACTIVITY AVERAGE STANDARD MAXIMUM CURRENT INDEX/LABEL UTILIZATION DEVIATION UTIL 0Th

3 0.3789 0.4855 2 0

ENTITY COUNT

97

AVERAGE STANDARD LENGTH DEVIATION

0.0000 0.0009 3.4086 0.3558 0.0000 0.0000 0.1213 0.324 0.0000 0.0000 0.188 0.3991 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3.8749 0.3307

MAXIMUM LENGTH

0 4 0 I 0 I 0 0 5

CUR R ENT LENGTH

0 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 3

AVER \ WAtTIN TEM

0.001)0 261. 7303

0.01)00 9.()()i2 U • C]'] 00

23.4115 0.0000 0.0000

28.2345

CURRENT UTILIZATION

I 0

AVERAGE MXI BLOCKAGE T!'E

0.0300 0.0000 12

11 i I!: J'-J. AbAIKS 0.3930EfU4 U.2[ffU1, U.5533EfUU U.9000EfU2 TIME RET. FRAIKS 0.3930E+04 0.2116E+04 0.5533Ei-00 0.0000F+02

0.165 U E + U 0.7650E+04

ACTIVITY START NODE OR INDEX ACTIVITY LABEL

5 UNLO QUEUE FULD QUEUE

**SERVICE ACTIVITY STATISTICS**

SERVER AVERAGE STANDARD CAPACITY UTILIZATION DEVIATION

1 0.7461 0.4352

1 0.5000 0.5000

*RES0URCF STATISTICS**

RESOU R CE RESOURCE CURRENT AVERAGE STANDARD MAXIMUM CURRENT NUMBER LABEL CAPACITY UTILIZATION DEVIATION UTILIZATION UTILIZATION

1 TRUCK 2 1.9962 0.0610 2

RESOURCE NUMBER

RESOURCE CURRENT AVERAGE LABEL AVAILABLE AVAILABLE

TRUCK 0 . 0.0037

N I IMUM AVAILABLE

C)

MAXIMUM AVAILABLE

2

**HISTOGRAM NUMBER I

AVG. USE OF TR'JC

(3 1 SV RELA CUML UPPER FREQ FREQ FREQ CELL LIMIT 0 20 41) 60

4- 4- + 4- + 4- +1 0.006 0.006 0.1999E'-Ol + 0 0.000 0.006 0.1999E+01 + 0 0.000 0.006 0.1999Ef0l + 0 0.000 0.006 0.1999E'-01 + 0 0.000 0.006 0.1099E+01 + 0 0.000 0.006 0.1999E4-01 4-0 0.000 0.006 0.2000E+01 + 0 0.000 0.006 0.2000E+01 + 0 0.000 0.006 0.2000E4-0I 4-

0 0.000 0.006 0.2000E4-01 + 0 0.000 0.006 0.2000E+01 +

158 0.994 1.000 0.2000E+01 0 0.000 1.000 0.2000Es-01 0 0.000 1.000 0.2000E4-01 + 0 0.000 1.000 !NF 4-

+ 4- 4- + + + + + 159 0 20 40 60 90

**STATISTICS FOR VARIABLES BASED ON OBSERVATION**

MEAN STANDARD COEFF. OF MINIMUM MAXIMUM VALUE DEVIATION VARIATION VALUE VALUE

VG. USE OF TRUC 0.1994E+01 0.7931E-01 0.3978E-01 0.1000E+01 0.2000E'-Ol

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS

159

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

**sTArIsr1c5 FOR VARIABLES BASED ON OBSERVATION**

MEAN STANDARD COEFF. OF MINIMUM MAXIMUM .. DEVIATION VARIATION --VALUE VALUE

AVG. TIME

USE OF IRUC BET. ABALKS

0.1665E+01 0.4733E+00 0.3876E+04 0.2214E+04

0.2843E+00 0.5712E'-00

0.1000Ef01 0.9000E+02

0.2000Ef01 0.7665E+04 ) TIME BET. F8ALKS 0.3816E+04 0.22I4E+04 0.5712E+00 0.9000E+02 0.7665E+04

'STATISTICS** -..--**FILE -

FILE ASSOC NODE AVERAGE STANDARD MAXIMUM CURRENT AVERAGE NUMBER LABEL/TYPE LENGTH DEVIATION LENGTH LENGTH WAITING TIME

1 . o.0000 0.0000 0 0.0030 2 ASRS AWAIT 0.0000 0.0000 1 0 0.0000 3 0.0000 0.0000 0 0 0.0000 4 . . . IJNLD....QUEUE ..0.0780 0.2682 ........... 1 0 4.6826 5 0.0000 0.0000 0 0 0.0000 6 FINV AWAIT 0.0000 0.0000 1 0 0.0000 1 FULO QUEUE 0.0000 0.0000 0 0 0.0000 8 .. 0.0000 0.0000 0 0 0.0000 9 CALENDAR 4.2443 0.1160 5 4 25.8085

**REGULAR ACTIVITY STATISTICS**

ACTIVITY AVERAGE STANDARD MAXIMUM CURRENT ENTITY INDEX/LABEL . ..UTILIZATION- DEVIATION UTIL UTIL COUNT

3 0.5000 0.5000 1 0 128

NUMBER OB S E P. 'V

I(

**SERVICE ACTIVITY STATISTICS**

ACTIVITY START.NODEOR, SERVER AVERAGE STANDARD. CURRENT AVERAGE MAXIM INDEX ACTIVITY LABEL CAPACITY UTILIZATION DEVIATION UTILIZATION BLOCKAGE TIME/

5 UNLO QUEUE 1 0.9941 0.0166 1 0.0000 30 0 FULD.QUEUE... .. 1 0.5000 0.5000 0 0.0000 63

- ....- .... ........... . **RESOURCE STATISTICS**

RESOURCE RESOURCE CURRENT AVERAGE STANDARD MAXIMUM CURRENT NUMBER LABEL CAPACITY UTILIZATION DEVIATION UTILIZATION UTILIZATION

1 TRUCK 3 2.3224 0.6857 3 2

RESOURCE RESOURCE CURRENT AVERAGE MINIMUM MAXIMUM NUMBER LABEL AVAILABLE AVAILABLE AVAILABLE AVAILABLE

1. TRUCK .1 .... . . 0.6775 0 3

**HISTOGRAM NUMBER 1**

AVG. USE OF TRUC

OBSV RELA CUMI UPPER FREQ.S.FREQ....FREQ _-CELL LIMIT 0 20 . 40 60

+ + + + + 1- + + 64 0.335 0.335 0.1999E4-01 0 0.000 0.335 0.1999E+01 + C

• 0S. 0.000 . 0.335 0.1999E4-01 + C 0 0.000 0.335 0.1999Ei-01 + C 0 0.000 0.335 0.1999E+01 4- C 0 0.000 0.335 0.1999E+01 + C

••. 0 .O.000,...._0.335... ------- - 0.2000E+01 .4- . . C 0 0.000 0.335 0.2000E4-01 + C 0 0.000 0.335 0.2000E4-01 + C 0 0.000 0.335 0.2000E+01 + C

0.000 . . 0.335 ..... 0.2000E4-01 4- . - . . C 127 0.665 1.000 0.2000E+01

0 0.000 1.000 0.2000E+01 + 0 0.000 1.000 0.2000E4-01 4-0 ........ 0.000---------1.000. INF

+ + + + 4- 4- + +

191 0 20 40 60

**STATISTICS FOR VARIABLES BASED ON OBSERVATION**

MEAN-- . ..STANDARD... . COEFF. OF MINIMUM MAXIMUM NUMBER OF VALUE DEVIATION VARIATION VALUE . VALUE OBSERVATIONS

USE OF TRUC 0.1665E'-01 0.4733E-4-00 0.2843Ei-00 0.I000E+01 0.2000E+01 191

80 4- +

+ +

80