Martin Ruhs - Free Movement: Economics and Politics
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Transcript of Martin Ruhs - Free Movement: Economics and Politics
How did we get here?
• Numbers• Effects• Changing politics• Negotiating the deal: is the UK exceptional?• EU referendum and current debates
Immigration to the UK by citizenship (source: ONS)
Migration to UK by main reason (source : ONS)
Economic effects • Labour market: wages, employment, etc.• Fiscal: taxes minus benefits • Public services• Economic growth• Inequality
• Mostly + for migrants• Often + but perhaps more mixed for
countries of origin
Social and political effects • “pace of change” • “social effects/change” • “out of control” public opinion
Changing politics of free movement
• Open up to A8 in 2004• Limits on A2 in 2007• Change of gvt in 2010 reduce net-migration• Now almost complete cross-party consensus
on “need” to reduce EU immigration• EU migration key issue in EU referendum
Is the UK exceptional?
Is the UK exceptional?
Cameron’s “deal”• Temporary limits on EU workers’ access to in-
work benefits• Little impact on scale of immigration• Some (modest) impact on net-fiscal effects for
UK• Ending “something for nothing” (?) impact
on public opinion? • Deal will, in my view, have limited impact on
UK citizens’ votes in referendum
