The Role of Data in Virginia’s College

Readiness InitiativeMarshall W. Garland

Deborah L. Jonas. Ph.D.Chrys Dougherty, Ph.D.

Anne Ware, Ph.D.

Presentation at the 24th Annual Management Information Systems (MIS) Conference Session X-G

February 24, 2011

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Designed to:◦ Ensure that college-ready standards in reading,

writing, and mathematics are taught in each Virginia high school classroom.

◦ Strengthen students’ preparation for college and the workforce before leaving high school.

Virginia’s ongoing research program guides the state’s efforts to:◦ Develop policy, programs, and coursework to

support higher achievement for Virginia’s students.

Virginia’s College and Career Readiness Initiative

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Purpose: ◦ Understand the associations between students’ high school

outcomes and their postsecondary enrollment patterns and outcomes.

Data sources:◦ VDOE’s administrative data for high school students◦ Postsecondary enrollment data VDOE acquired from the

National Student Clearinghouse. ◦ Student-level data for postsecondary course placement

and outcomes provided by the State Council of Higher Education for Virginia (SCHEV).

Analytic methods: ◦ Descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression

Research Purpose and Approach

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Focused on associations between high school outcomes and enrollment in institutions of higher education (IHE).

Relied on data from the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC).

The majority of students who enrolled directly in four-year colleges persisted into the second year, which was considered a success.

These analyses did not clarify the associations between high school and postsecondary outcomes in two-year colleges.

Virginia’s Initial Studies

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What Virginia Learned from Analysis of Postsecondary Enrollment Data

*Based on preparation for success in four-year schools. In Virginia, few students enrolled in four-year schools require remediation.

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VDOE and SCHEV have a mutually agreed upon methodology that links de-identified student data between agencies.

Individual students who have common identifiers in the K-12 and higher education data systems are given a random, but unique, identifier.

This methodology is enabling Virginia to build a federated data system that will automate the linking process used for this research.

Merging Records from K-12 and Higher Education

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*The de-identified data set does not contain any information that can be linked to individual citizens. It contains a random number that permits the two data sets to be merged, but the number itself cannot be used to identify individuals.

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Focuses on:◦ Students who enrolled in Virginia’s postsecondary

institutions.◦ Understanding high school outcomes associated with

enrollment and success in credit bearing versus non credit-bearing (developmental) courses.

In Virginia, public colleges and universities are, by law, not permitted to offer developmental courses. ◦ Primary focus of current work is course placement in

2-year institutions and course outcomes in 2- and 4-year institutions.

Current Project

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High school class of 2008◦ State assessment data◦ Graduation/completion credentials◦ Demographics

Postsecondary data for Fall 2008 entering cohort◦ Both student level and student-course-semester

level◦ Course-level enrollment records and grades in

math and English courses

The Data

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Used key variables from VDOE and SCHEV data sets as additional data verification◦ Birth month/year (high school to higher

education)◦ Gender (high school to higher education)◦ Reporting period (postsecondary semester)◦ Other demographics within the postsecondary

files (enrollment demographics to course enrollment data)

◦ IHE unique identifier

Initial Merge Verification

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What can we learn from these data?

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Nearly 60% of first-year students at Virginia public 2-year IHEs enrolled in a developmental course (DC).• More students enrolled in developmental math than developmental English

courses.• No students participate in developmental coursework in Virginia’s four-year

public IHEs.

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Among students who enrolled in either a 2-year or 4-year IHE, students who took the Algebra I SOL later in their secondary tenure are more likely to enroll in a math DC than students who took the exam earlier.*

*NOTE: Virginia’s English SOL is typically taken in the 11th grade. Analysis would not be comparable.

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At 2- or 4-year IHEs, students who earned a standard diploma were more likely to enroll in a developmental course than students who earned an advanced diploma.

• Approximately 11% of students who earned an advanced diploma were placed in developmental courses.

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At 2- or 4-year IHEs, students who earn advanced proficient scores on the respective SOL tests were much less likely to enroll in developmental courses compared to those who passed at the proficient level.

• Diploma type (Advanced Studies or Standard) also makes a difference.

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At 2-or 4-year IHEs, the association between SOL score and the likelihood of developmental course placement holds even after controlling for other student-level variables.

Math Developmental Course

Enrollment

English Developmental Course

Enrollment

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At 2-or 4-year IHEs, after controlling for student characteristics, Hispanic students had a higher estimated probability of enrolling in an English DC.

English Developmental Course

Enrollment

• These differences remained once English language proficiency (LEP) status was incorporated.• The gaps narrow considerably among students who achieved Advanced Proficiency.

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SOL performance was significantly associated with the likelihood of persistence at a 4-year IHE.• SOL performance was not a significant predictor of persistence at a 2-year IHE.

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Among 2-year IHE enrollees, achieving Advanced Proficiency on the Algebra I SOL

erases the persistence gap between economically disadvantaged and non-economically disadvantaged students.

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Merging high school and postsecondary data is helping Virginia understand the outcomes needed to be prepared for credit-bearing college courses.

Policymakers are using this information to inform policy and program decisions.

Analysis is ongoing with greater focus on:◦ Persistence into the second year◦ Course outcomes (grades) in postsecondary◦ Refining student subgroup analyses

The research is conducted with full support from Virginia’s policymakers.◦ Working with nationally recognized experts adds credibility to VDOE’s

initiative.

Virginia’s LDS grant from IES makes this work possible!

Summary and Next Steps

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Contact Information

Marshall GarlandResearch Scientist

Texas Schools Project University of Texas, Dallas mxg101000@utdallas.edu

Deborah L. Jonas, Ph.D.Executive Director for Research

and Strategic Planning Virginia Department of

Education Deborah.Jonas@doe.virginia.gov

Chrys Dougherty, Ph.D., Senior Research Scientist

National Center for Educational Achievement, a Department of ACT,

Inc cdougherty@nc4ea.org

Anne Ware, Ph.D.Assistant Director

Texas Schools Project University of Texas, Dallas amw101000@utdallas.edu