Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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Transcript of Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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Markus AmannInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Recent developments
of the RAINS model
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Recent model development
• Energy & emission databases
• Modelling of deposition and its effects
• Modelling of ozone and its impacts– health– Vegetation
• Internet version
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Modelling of deposition and its effects
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Issues
• Source-receptor relationships for deposition
• Ecosystem-specific deposition
• Dynamic modelling
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S-R relations for RAINS
Linearity of changes in PM due to changes in emissions is crucial for the mathematical design of RAINS
• 87 model experiments with the new EMEP model: – Response of European S/N deposition
to changes in SO2, NOx, NH3, [VOC, PPM2.5/10] emissions
– For German, Italian, Dutch, UK and European emissions– 3 emission scenarios:
• CLE (current legislation 2010) = CAFE baseline for 2010• MFR (maximum technically feasible reductions 2010• UFR (ultimately feasible reductions) = MFR/2
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Response of total S depositiondue to changes in UK SO2 emissions
UK emissions change from CLE to MFR
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Emissions change from CLE
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Response of total S depositiondue to changes in UK NH3 emissions
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UK emissions change from CLE to MFR
Emissions change from CLE
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Response of total S depositiondue to changes in all UK emissions
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UK emissions change from CLE to MFR
Emissions change from CLE
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Response of total oxidised N depositiondue to changes in UK NOx emissions
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UK emissions change from CLE to MFR
Emissions change from CLE
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Response of total oxidised N depositiondue to changes in UK NH3 emissions
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UK emissions change from CLE to MFR
Emissions change from CLE
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Response of total oxidised N depositiondue to changes in all UK emissions
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UK emissions change from CLE to MFR
Emissions change from CLE
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Conclusion on S-R relations
• Linear treatment (transfer matrices) seems sufficient
• Work together with MSC-W is underway to derive coefficients
• Time problem to calculate many different years
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Eco-system specific deposition
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Ecosystem-specific deposition
• Ecosystem-specific deposition:Estimates of unprotected ecosystems in Europe for 2010:
• Harmonized land-use maps: – Meeting at IIASA in March.
– CDFs of CL will be delivered for forests, lakes, others.
Lagrangian model 150 km grid-average deposition
New Eulerian model 50km, grid-average deposition
New Eulerian model 50km, ecosystem-
specific deposition
Acidification 3% 15 % 25 %
Eutrophication 20% 60 % 80 %
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Excess of forest critical loads
Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, mean meteorology
2000 2010 2020
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Probability of deposition exceeeding critical loadsfor the Gothenburg 2010 ceilings, EU-15
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0% 5% 10%
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Probability
Per
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Estimated in 2003with ecosystem specific
deposition
Estimated in 1999
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Dynamic modelling
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Five stages in dynamic acidification modelling
Important time factors:• Damage delay time• Recover delay time
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Use of dynamic modelling in RAINS
Target load functions have been developed for IAM, specifying
• the levels of S/N deposition • in a given year• that lead to recovery of x% of ecosystems• within y years.Could be directly used in RAINS optimisation with x, y as
policy choices.
But:• How to upscale to ecosystems without dynamic estimates?• How to reach full European coverage?• Historic base cation deposition?
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Ozone modelling
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Ozone modelling
• Health impact assessment
• Vegetation impacts
• Regional ozone modelling– Linearity– Uncertainty
• Urban ozone modelling
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Health impacts
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Health impacts
• All epidemiological studies use Daily maximum 8-hour mean concentrationas metric, often for the full year.
• Different from hourly values used for AOT calculations! – Models not yet evaluated against health metric.
• WHO review: Effects found below 60 ppb, no solid evidence on existence of threshold
• How to treat this in an integrated assessment?
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Critical question for IAM of O3
• How certain are we about health impacts below (natural)
background levels (30-40 ppb)?
• Especially, if ozone is reduced below background
because of (too) high NOx concentrations?
• Do we expect health benefits from reductions in
urban O3 through increased NOx emissions -
while total oxidants (NOx + Ox) increase?
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Example implementation
• CAFE baseline energy & emission projection for 2000, 2010, 2010
• EMEP Eulerian dispersion model, regional background concentrations
• Mean meteorology, 1999 & 2003
• No adjustment of ozone levels for urban areas (awaiting results from City-Delta)
• RR from WHO meta study (1.003)
• Calculation for summer, no effects for winter assumed
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Premature deaths attributable to O3
Absolute numbers (for 6 months), with different cut-offs
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EU-15 New Member States Non-EU
30 ppb 40 ppb 60 ppb
Provisional estimates!
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EU-15 New Member States Non-EU
Reduction of premature deaths attributable to O3
compared to 2000, with different cut-offs
30 ppb 40 ppb 60 ppb
Provisional estimates!
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Approach recommended by TFH7
• Focus on mortality – premature deaths attributable to ozone
– Will create bias, because morbidity not considered
• Do not use potential impacts of ozone below background to drive policy
• Use 35 ppb as cut-off
– Reflects present background concentrations
– Use of linear regressed RR will underestimate the effect
• Consider full year
• Use one “characteristic” urban concentration level
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Premature deaths attributable to O3
Year 2000, mean meteorology, cut-off=30 ppb, percent of total deaths
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Bel
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Ukr
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Vegetation impacts
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Concentration-based critical levels for ozoneSource: Mapping manual
Receptor Time period Critical levelAOT30, ppm.h
(only for IAM)
Critical levelAOT40, ppm.h
Agricultural crops
3 months 4 3
Horticultural crops
4 months - 5
Forest trees Growing season (6 months)
9 5
Semi-natural vegetation
3 months - 3
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Flux-based critical levels for ozoneSource: Mapping manual
Receptor Time period Critical level(AFst6)
Wheat 900 ˚C days starting 200 ˚C days before anthesis (flowering)
1 mmol/m2 projected sunlit leaf area
Potato 1130 ˚C days starting at plant emergence
5 mmol/m2 projected sunlit leaf area
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Considerations for RAINS
• Critical levels for forests are most sensitive
• Use flux-based assessment for ex-post scenario analysis, concentrations-based CL for optimisation
• For trees, mapping manuals leaves a choice between AOT40 and AOT30
• Further analysis of advantages and disadvantages necessary
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Statistical indicators for AOT-based CLSource: Mapping manual
Linear regression for birch and beech
r2 p for the slope p for the intercept
slope
AOT30 0.61 <0.01 0.63 - 0.494
AOT40 0.62 <0.01 0.31 - 0.732
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Source-receptor relations
• Regional scale:– Linearity?– Confidence?
• Urban scale
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AOT30 AOT40
Response of ozone due to ΔNOxfrom German emissions
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AOT30 AOT40
Response of ozone due to ΔVOCfrom German emissions
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How much can we trust results from one model?
• Euro-Delta intercomparison of regional scale models
• Coordinated by JRC, IIASA, MSC-W, TNO, CONCAWE
• 5 models:– CHIMERE (F)– EMEP– LOTOS (NL)– MATCH (S)– REM (D)
• Study model responses to emission control cases
• Ensemble model
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Graphs courtesy of Kees Cuvelier and
Philippe Thunis, JRC
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Summary of model performances
AOT30 AOT40
r2 of critical level estimates
for birch, beech 0.61 0.62
Correlation coefficient of ensemble dispersion models
0.65 0.61
Correlation coefficient of the EMEP model
0.57 0.48
Variability of model results for emission control scenarios
? ??
Linearity between CLE and MFR ? ??
???
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Urban scale
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Changes in urban ozone for further NOx reductionCity-Delta results
Population-weighted O3Urban O3
AOT30
AOT40Graphs courtesy of Kees Cuvelier and
Philippe Thunis, JRC
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Changes in urban ozone for further VOC reductionCity-Delta results
Population-weighted O3Urban O3
AOT30
AOT40Graphs courtesy of Kees Cuvelier and
Philippe Thunis, JRC
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y = 0.2122x - 0.8072
R2 = 0.9198
-1.00
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0.00
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Series1
Linear (Series1)
NOx emission density in urban domain
Difference between observed urban and background O3, annual mean O3
Can titration be detected for long-term ozone at urban background?
Preliminary results from City-Delta
Graphs courtesy of Kees Cuvelier and
Philippe Thunis, JRC
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Next steps
• Analyze City-Delta 2 results, especially for PM
• Develop functional relationships between rural and urban concentrations
• Develop extension to other cities
• Implement in RAINS
• Final City-Delta workshop, fall 2004
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Internet version
• RAINS available on the Internet
• Free access at:
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tap/RainsWeb/