MARKET WATCHMARKET WATCH INCREASE IN CORN ACREAGE ...

8
MARKET WATCH MARKET WATCH INCREASE IN CORN ACREAGE PREDICTED FEED Mike North Milk Marketing Specialist First Capitol AG 8 Progressive Dairyman Issue 5 • March 22, 2011 Save time and money Reduce drying time with Kuhn's conditioning systems Invest in Quality! www.KuhnNorthAmerica.com Videos at Kuhn crop conditioning systems offer the versatility and ease of adjustment necessary to match ever-changing field conditions. Kuhn mower conditioners offer the consistent performance you need to produce quality hay and maximize your bottom line! FC Disc Mower Conditioners with FingerComb II™, PolyComb™ and DiamondBlock™ conditioning systems 23 models from 7' 10" – 28' 10" cutting widths Arizona Machinery Buckeye, AZ Ag Sales Arcata, CA Fernbridge Tractor & Equipment Fernbridge, CA Lawrence Tractor Hanford, CA Tipton, CA Visalia, CA Torrence’s Farm Implements Heber, CA Thermal, CA Gonzales Equipment Sales Gonzales, CA West Cal Tractor Santa Rosa, CA South Plains Implement Mesquite, NM Carter Agri-Systems Lund, NV Smith Valley Garage Wellington, NV Winnemucca New Holland Winnemucca, NV Grissoms Ada, OK Washington County Tractor Brenham, TX Sealy, TX Clark Tractor & Supply Comanche, TX Tuttle Motor Company Poteet, TX Boehm Tractor Sales Shiner, TX Visit your local Kuhn Dealer for details today! Supreme hay ($/ton) Mar. 4 Price 3-week change Central CA $300-$320 $50 UT $100-$125 NC NV $160-$170 $10-$20 WA/OR $160-$170 $20 CO $135-$150 $15 NM $185-$190 NC TX $185-$205 $5-$10 Source: USDA National Hay, Feed & Seed Summary Mar. 4 Price 3-week change CA $339 $49 ID $331 $2 NM $305 $50 Soybean meal* ($/ton) Mar. 4 Price 3-week change CA $408 $10 ID $408 $2 NM $397 $3 *Price quotes contributed by Western Milling, J.D. Heiskell and United Cooperative. Corn* (in tons) (in bushels) Mar. 4 Price 3-week change CA $305 $7 ID $303 $5 NM $290 $8 Price 3-week change $8.54 .30¢ $8.48 .14¢ $8.12 .22¢ Cottonseed* ($/ton) One of the single greatest discussions in recent weeks has been that of acreage. Will corn producers plant enough corn to meet current demand? Will cotton prices rob corn of acreage in the south? Will South American soybeans rebuild enough supply to allow U.S. production a timeout in its pursuit to keep pace with corn growth? Recent reports from South American harvest suggest record yields are coming our way, though it is too early to make that prediction for the whole of the continent when only a few producers in the north are harvesting. Some of those questions were addressed at the USDA Ag Outlook Forum held in late February. Rising cotton prices will pull acres away from corn in southern areas, as USDA analysts expect a 13 percent increase in cotton production. However, analysts at that conference project 92 million acres of corn to be planted in the U.S., nearly 4 million more than 2010. is projection aligns itself well with recent discussions from private analysts who predict a range from 90 to 93 million acres. e short-term answer to this question of how much corn we will plant will come on March 31, when the USDA releases its planting intentions report. e story doesn’t stop there. Tight supplies remain an ongoing thread in this conversation. In the February Supply and Demand report, the USDA lowered corn ending stocks to 675 million bushels. is brings our stocks-to- use ratio to 5.0 percent, the lowest since the 1995/1996 marketing year. is continues to add to our discount carry structure which now has March corn futures at a $1.20 premium to the new crop December futures. Tight supplies have a way of placing a premium value on stored bushels. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Don’t expect this spread to weaken until well into summer, when more is known about the success of the coming crop. is general concern over the lack of necessary acreage and historically tight supplies has been at odds though with other concerns, namely those in the Middle East. February 21 featured a limit- down move in corn, soybeans and wheat as speculators sought to limit their exposure in agricultural commodities. As the wave of riots and demonstrations ripple out from Egypt, concerns over the potential economic disruption that is likely to follow shined a light on speculator risk in long positions. ey were quick to exit a share of their portfolio and the immediate price break was quick to follow. is appetite for risk seems to be an ongoing assessment at these levels. As soon as the market broke, new money found its way back to the market to cause a subsequent rally back to the prices that were just left. Expect more of the same until the June 30 release of the USDA Acreage Report and pollination of the Midwestern corn crop. PD COMMODITIES

Transcript of MARKET WATCHMARKET WATCH INCREASE IN CORN ACREAGE ...

MARKET WATCHMARKET WATCH INCREASE IN CORN ACREAGE PREDICTED CONCERN OVER HISTORICALLY TIGHT SUPPLIESFEED

Mike NorthMilk Marketing SpecialistFirst Capitol AG

8 Progressive Dairyman Issue 5 • March 22, 2011

Save time and money

Reduce drying time with Kuhn's conditioning systems

Invest in Quality!

www.KuhnNorthAmerica.comVideos at

Kuhn crop conditioning systems offer the versatility and ease of adjustment necessary to match ever-changing field conditions. Kuhn mower conditioners offer the consistent performance you need toproduce quality hay and maximize your bottom line!

FC Disc Mower Conditioners

with FingerComb II™, PolyComb™ and DiamondBlock™ conditioning systems

23 models from 7' 10" – 28' 10" cutting widths

Arizona Machinery Buckeye, AZ

Ag Sales Arcata, CA

Fernbridge Tractor& Equipment Fernbridge, CA

Lawrence Tractor Hanford, CATipton, CA Visalia, CA

Torrence’sFarm Implements

Heber, CAThermal, CA

GonzalesEquipment Sales

Gonzales, CA

West Cal Tractor Santa Rosa, CA

South Plains Implement Mesquite, NM

Carter Agri-SystemsLund, NV

Smith Valley GarageWellington, NV

WinnemuccaNew Holland

Winnemucca, NV

Grissoms Ada, OK

WashingtonCounty Tractor

Brenham, TXSealy, TX

Clark Tractor & Supply

Comanche, TX

Tuttle Motor Company

Poteet, TX

Boehm Tractor Sales

Shiner, TX

Visit your local Kuhn Dealer for details today!

Supreme hay ($/ton)

Mar. 4 Price 3-week change

Central CA $300-$320 $50UT $100-$125 NC

NV $160-$170 $10-$20

WA/OR $160-$170 $20

CO $135-$150 $15 NM $185-$190 NC

TX $185-$205 $5-$10

Source: USDA National Hay, Feed & Seed Summary

Mar. 4 Price 3-week change

CA $339 $49

ID $331 $2

NM $305 $50

Soybean meal* ($/ton)

Mar. 4 Price 3-week change

CA $408 $10

ID $408 $2

NM $397 $3

*Price quotes contributed by Western Milling, J.D. Heiskell and United Cooperative.

Corn* (in tons) (in bushels)

Mar. 4 Price 3-week change

CA $305 $7

ID $303 $5

NM $290 $8

Price 3-week change

$8.54 .30¢

$8.48 .14¢

$8.12 .22¢

Cottonseed* ($/ton)

One of the single greatest discussions in recent weeks has been that of acreage. Will corn producers plant enough corn to meet current demand? Will cotton prices rob corn of acreage in the south? Will South American soybeans rebuild enough supply to allow U.S. production a timeout in its pursuit to keep pace with corn growth? Recent reports from South American harvest suggest record yields are coming our way, though it is too early to make that prediction for the whole of the continent when only a few producers in the north are harvesting. Some of those questions were addressed at the USDA Ag Outlook Forum held in

late February. Rising cotton prices will pull acres away from corn in southern areas, as USDA analysts expect a 13 percent increase in cotton production. However, analysts at that conference project 92 million acres of corn to be planted in the U.S., nearly 4 million more than 2010. � is projection aligns itself well with recent discussions from private analysts who predict a range from 90 to 93 million acres. � e short-term answer to this question of how much corn we will plant will come on March 31, when the USDA releases its planting intentions report.

� e story doesn’t stop there.

Tight supplies remain an ongoing thread in this conversation. In the February Supply and Demandreport, the USDA lowered corn ending stocks to 675 million bushels. � is brings our stocks-to-use ratio to 5.0 percent, the lowest since the 1995/1996 marketing year. � is continues to add to our discount carry structure which now has March corn futures at a $1.20 premium to the new crop December futures. Tight supplies have a way of placing a premium value on stored bushels. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Don’t expect this spread to weaken until well into summer, when more is known about the success of the coming crop.

� is general concern over the lack of necessary acreage and historically tight supplies has been at odds though with other concerns, namely those in the Middle East.

February 21 featured a limit- down move in corn, soybeans and wheat as speculators sought to limit their exposure in agricultural commodities. As the wave of riots and demonstrations ripple out from Egypt, concerns over the potential economic disruption that is likely to follow shined a light on speculator risk in long positions. � ey were quick to exit a share of their portfolio and the immediate price break was quick to follow. � is appetite for risk seems to be an ongoing assessment at these levels. As soon as the market broke, new money found its way back to the market to cause a subsequent rally back to the prices that were just left. Expect more of the same until the June 30 release of the USDA Acreage Report and pollination of the Midwestern corn crop. PD

COMMODITIES

Mar2011

May July Sept Dec Mar2012

Low

High

Settle$5.50$5.75$6.00$6.25$6.50$6.75$7.00$7.25$7.50

Mar2011

JulyMay Aug Oct DecSept MarJan2012

Low

High

Settle$320$330$340$350$360$370$380$390

The chart above displays the amount of income a U.S. producer would have remaining after paying for feed to produce one hundredweight of fl uid milk at the current all-milk price.

REGION

GAS DIESEL

Recent 3-week change

Yearly change Recent 3-week Yearly

change

East Coast $3.502 +.362¢ +0.762¢ $3.908 +.321¢ +0.976¢

Midwest $3.487 +.397¢ +0.792¢ $3.823 +.344¢ +0.952¢

Gulf Coast $3.402 +.401¢ +0.755¢ $3.812 +.323¢ +0.939¢

West $3.584 +.316¢ +0.705¢ $4.046 +.375¢ +1.043¢

California $3.874 +.427¢ +0.828¢ $4.122 +.375¢ +1.065¢

U.S. $3.52 +.38¢ +0.769¢ $3.871 +.337¢ +0.967¢

Apr2011

May AprMarFebJune July Sept Oct NovAug Dec Jan2012

Settle$95

$97

$99

$101

$103

$105

Prices used to calculate ratioCommodity Current Change

Corn (bu) $5.66 .72¢ Soybeans (bu) $12.10 .50¢ Baled hay (ton) $127 $6.00 All-milk (cwt) $18.40 $1.70 Source: USDA NASS Agricultural Prices report Feb. 2011

INCREASE IN CORN ACREAGE PREDICTED CONCERN OVER HISTORICALLY TIGHT SUPPLIES

FUTURES

ENERGY

High: $7.45 Low: $5.66

High: $385.70 Low: $331.00

High: $102.84 Low: $95.47

Corn (dollars per bushel)

Soybeans (dollars per ton)

Crude oil (dollars per barrel)

Mar2010

Jan2011

Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Feb

2009

2010

$3$4$5$6$7$8$9

$10$11 Feb 28, 2010: $9.01

High: $10.79 Low: $3.51Income over feed cost (per cwt)

CornMay ’11 contracts $7.15 +.36¢ $7.44/$6.68July ’11 contracts $7.19 +.35¢ $7.45/$6.72

MAR. 4 Avg. 3-week settle High/Low

Soybean mealMay ’11 contracts $365.66 -$18.86 $384.20/$348.30July ’11 contracts $367.56 -$17.67 $385.70/$350.00

The normal seasonality of soybean meal prices often offer producers an opportunity to buy protein inputs well in the period of February/March. Recent tightening of crushing margins has once again offered that price break that we seasonally hope for. As China begins to lift price control measures (favoring higher veg oil prices), this may be a good time to address protein needs for the next fi ve to six months. You may use put options to allow for any further correction to take place.

The ongoing battle of acreage and tight stocks vs. speculative money fl ow and world events plays out against the backdrop of spring planting conditions and world weather concerns. This volatile mix of situations and emotions has created trading ranges

of forty cents in corn futures and more than a dollar in soybeans. The grain and oilseed markets are caught in a whipsaw. Do not expect volatility (the most dominant trend of our time) to let up any time soon. Use any breaks in corn price as a buying opportunity for immediate/short-term feed needs.

Source: USDA NASS Agricultural Prices report March 7, 2011

Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange data

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

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Issue 5 • March 22, 2011 Progressive Dairyman 9

Month after month, dairy cow prices continue to move higher. � e national average price for dairy cows for January 2011 was $65/cwt and by February cow prices gained $6.20/cwt to average $71.20/cwt,

MARKET WATCHMARKET WATCH DAIRY COWS AVERAGING $10 HIGHERMARKET WATCHMARKET WATCHMARKET WATCHMARKET WATCHMARKET WATCHCATTLE

Chris LehnerDirector of CommoditiesEquity Cooperative Livestock Sales Association

a 8.7 percent increase. A year ago, February 2010, cows averaged $51.70/cwt. Compared to 2010 cow prices, cows in 2011 are averaging more than 27 percent more.

� e demand for beef continues

to support dairy cow prices. A year ago, select boxed beef averaged close to $140/cwt and in 2011 beef prices have climbed about 15 percent higher. � e spread between choice and select boxed beef is extremely

narrow, suggesting the demand for ground beef products and correlating dairy cow prices should continue to see strength.

Empire Livestock - Burton MarketVernon, NY (800) 257-1819 (sale 3/3/11)

$1,400$50

$1,100 $200

$950 $150

$1,100$175

$600 NC

$800 $50

N/T$110/cwt

NCN/T

Mammoth Cave Dairy Auction, Inc.Smiths Grove, KY (800) 563-2131(sale 3/1/11)

$1,520 $150

$1,350 $10

$1,150 $150

$1,000$130

$430$55

$510$10

$160$30

$145 $20

N/T

New Holland Sales StablesNew Holland, PA (717) 354-4341(sale 3/2/11)

$1,475 $50

$1,325$15

$1,125 $150

$1,375$25

$585 $200

$900 $125

N/T N/T N/T

Mid-Georgia Livestock AuctionJackson, GA (770) 775-7314 (sale 3/1/11)

$1,575 NC

$1,475 NC

$1,175 NC

N/T$430

NC$465

NC$125 NC

$55 NC

N/T

Central Livestock AssociationAlbany, MN (800) 733-6828 (sale 2/18/11)

$1,775 $300

$1,350 $150

$1,000 $175

$1,200 $50

$133/cwt NC

$115/cwt $13/cwt

N/T N/T$900

NC

Equity Co-op LivestockStratford, WI (715) 687-4101Rocky Olsen (608) 434-4037 (sale 3/1/11)

$1,600 $25

$1,300 $100

$1,300 $100

$1,100$125

$625 NC

$1,025$100

$175$25

$155$35

N/T

Norwood Dairy Cattle AuctionNorwood, MO (sale 2/18/11)

$1,450NC

$1,275NC

$1,000NC

$1,225NC

$300NC

$780NC

$210NC

$110NC

N/T

Pipestone Livestock Auction MarketPipestone, MN (507) 825-3306 (sale 3/3/11)

$1,610$85

$1,513$106

$1,479$116

N/T$160/cwt$47/cwt

$118/cwt $20/cwt

N/T N/T N/T

Spring� eld Livestock Marketing Center Springfi eld, MO (417) 869-9500 Doug Thomas (417) 840-9316 (sale 2/22/11)

$1,750 $390

$1,300 $140

$1,000 $150

$1,300 $90

$355 $35

$585 $25

N/T$115 $25

N/T

Topeka Livestock AuctionTopeka, IN (206) 593-2522 (sale 3/1/11)

$1,600 $165

$900 $85

N/T$60

$14 $875 $75

$1,510 $185

$250$75

N/T$985

$240

Tri-State LivestockSioux Center, IA (712) 722-0681Mike Koedam (712) 470-0198 (sale 2/16/11)

$1,885 $310

$1,640 $190

$1,550 $150

N/T$126/cwt$13/cwt

$94/cwt $2/cwt

N/T N/T N/T

United Producers, IncMarion, MI (517) 294-3484 (sale 2/18/11)

$1,700$100

$1,550 $150

$1,250$50

$1,175 $125

$600 $150

$950 $150

N/T N/T $1,000$50

Brush Livestock of ColoradoBrush, CO (970) 842-2801 (sale 3/3/11)

$1,800 $100

$1,725 $85

$1,570 $70

$1,335$90

$535$40

$885$310

N/T N/T$925

$125

Chehalis Livestock MarketChehalis, WA (360) 748-3191 (sale 2/25/11)

$1,325 $50

$1,285 $85

$1,175 $75

N/T N/T N/T N/T $50 N/T

Producers LivestockJerome, ID (208) 324-4345 (sale 3/2/11)

$1,675 $175

$1,530 $60

$1,400 $10

$1,000$118/cwt$6/cwt

N/T N/T N/T N/T

Smith� eld Livestock AuctionSmithfi eld, UT (435) 563-3259 (sale 3/3/11)

$1,540$90

$1,500 $50

$1,420 $70

$830NC

$79/cwtNC

$94/cwt NC

N/T N/T N/T

Sulphur Springs Livestock and Dairy AuctionSulphur Springs, TX (903) 885-7739(sale 2/24/11)

$1,425$100

$1,000$50

$1,000$50

N/T $600 $140

$800$160

$250 $175

$125 $105

$825

Tulare County SalesDinuba, CA (559) 591-0884 (sale 3/1/11)

$1,650$50

$1,500$100

$1,300NC

$1,300$100

$500 $900$100$25

$75$15

$900$100

Escalon Livestock Marker, Inc.Escalon, CA (209) 838-7011(sale 3/2/11)

$1,800 $400

$1,300 $100

$1,150NC

N/T$90/cwt $5/cwt

$110/cwt NC

N/T N/T$850 $50

Contact Judy about being included in Progressive Dairyman’s Market Watch! [email protected] • (208) 324-7513 NC = No change N/T = No test Decrease in price Increase in price

MARKETWATCH Top Springer

Top Average

Medium Holstein Springer

ShortbredsOpen

Heifers Light

Open Heifers Heavy

HeiferCalves

BullCalves

Breeding BullsMarch 4, 2011

10 Progressive Dairyman Issue 5 • March 22, 2011

MARKET WATCHMARKET WATCH Jan. PRODUCTiON UP 2.3% VS 2010MILK

NOTE: The colored bar represents cumulative year-to-date milk production. When it does not surpass the dotted line at the center of the box, it indicates state production is below the previous year’s total. When it does surpass the dotted line, it indicates production is above the previous year’s total.

Texas425 +5

1,875 +3.9%797 +7.7%

797 107.7%

Utah87 +1

1,760 -1.9%153 +1.3%

153 101.3%

Vermont135 NC

1,605 +1.6%217 +2.4%

217 102.4%

Virginia95 NC

1,515 -1.3%144 -1.4%

144 98.6%

Washington252 NC

1,975 -0.2%498 +2.3%

498 102.3%

Wisconsin1,265 NC1,740 +1.2%2,201 +1.6%

2,201 101.6%

Arizona185 +1

2,015 -1.9%373 +7.5%

373 107.5%

California1,749 NC1,940 +1.3%3,393 +0.7%

3,393 100.7%

Colorado123 NC

1,975 +2.3%243 +8.5%

243 108.5%

Florida115 +1

1,715 +6.2%197 +8.8%

197 108.8%

Idaho574 NC

1,880 +1.1%1,079 +5.3%

1,079 105.3%

Illinois98 NC

1,660 +2.8%163 NC

163 100.0%

Indiana172 +1

1,705 +1.5%293 +3.2%

293 103.2%

Iowa210 +3

1,775 +2.3%373 +0.5%

373 100.5%

Kansas123 +1

1,800 +2.0%221 +7.8%

221 107.8%

Michigan362 +1

1,945 +1.3%704 +3.5%

704 103.5%

Minnesota470 NC

1,640 -0.3%771 -0.3%

771 99.7%

Missouri95 NC

1,240 +1.6%118 -4.8%

118 95.2%New Mexico

323 +22,105 +4.5%680 +6.1%

680 106.1%

U.S. Total9,157 +161,789 +1.5%

16,385 +2.3%

16,385 102.3%

New York610 -1

1,775 +4.4%1,083 +4.4%

1,083 104.4%

Ohio270 NC

1,630 +1.9%440 +1.1%

440 101.1%

Oregon120 -1

1,680 -0.6%202 +4.1%

202 104.1%

Pennsylvania543 NC

1,640 +0.6%891 +1.0%

891 101.0%

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12 Progressive Dairyman Issue 5 • March 22, 2011

Except for California, January milk production in the West was running well above a year ago.

California had just a 0.7 percent increase in production due to milk per cow being up just 1.3 percent compared to a 3.2 percent increase back in December. Stress from wet weather and perhaps high feed prices is slowing down increases in milk per cow.

But other Western states had relatively high increases from year ago. Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, Texas, Oregon and Washington. Each of these states has added cows from a year ago. PD

SURVEYED WESTERN STATES ALL EXPERIENCE INCREASED MILK PRODUCTION

Bob CroppProfessor EmeritusUniversity of Wisconsin – Madison

Texas425 +5

1,875 +3.9%797 +7.7%

797 107.7%

Legend

Number of cows(in thousands)

Milk per cow(month)

(lbs.)Total milk

production (month)

(in millions of lbs.)

Year-to-date milkproduction (total)(in millions of lbs.)

Percentage of year-to-date production versus previous year-to-date

Monthly change(in thousands)

Annual percentchange

Annual percentchange

95% 100% 105%

Feb2010

Jan2011

Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2009

2010

9,0009,0509,1009,1509,2009,2509,3009,3509,400

Jan. 2011: 9,157 High: 9,289 Low: 9,082

Milk cows (in thousands)

Feb2010

Jan2011

Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2009 2010

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850 Jan. 2011: 1,731 High: 1,809 Low: 1,640Milk per cow (in pounds, 30-day equivalent )

Feb2010

Jan2011

Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2009

14,500

15,000

15,500

16,000

16,500

17,000 Jan. 2011: 15,856High: 16,490 Low: 14,923Milk production (in pounds, 30-day equivalent)

U.S. HERD STATS

Jan. daily avg. milk per cow: 57.7 lbs.

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Issue 5 • March 22, 2011 Progressive Dairyman 13

� e price of butter, cheddar cheese, nonfat dry milk, dry whey and the Class III and IV prices have all experienced strong increases and are much higher than what were forecasted back in early January. Price changes from the beginning of January to their peak in February were: Butter $1.69 to $2.10; CME cheddar barrels $1.34 to $1.9175 as of February 18; CME 40-pound cheddar blocks $1.3425 to $1.9550 as of February 18; Western nonfat dry milk from the range of $1.20 to $1.24 to $1.40 to $1.70; and dry whey from a range of $0.29 to $0.42 to $0.43 to $0.50. Butter prices started to show weakness on February 11 and had declined to $2.005 as of February 18. � e January Class III was $13.48 and will be near $17 for February. As of February 18, Class III futures settled at $18.51 for March, above $17 through September and down to $16.44 for December. � e January Class IV was $16.42 and will be near $18.40 for February. As of February 18, Class IV futures settled in the $20s through August and were down to $17.44 for December. If these prices hold, the advanced Class IV price will be the mover of Class I prices for all of 2011.

� is price pattern is the opposite of what was forecasted back early January. It was then assumed that it would take the fi rst half of the year to slow down the growth in milk production as dairy producers slowly adjust cow numbers and milk per cow slows in response to much higher feed prices. Domestic demand, while improving, is still held back by a sluggish economy. Dairy exports, which were up substantially for all products in 2010, would decline some in 2011, especially for cheese and butter. And stocks of cheese remained relatively high. � e result would be lower milk prices during the fi rst half of the year with much stronger prices for the second half. But it now looks like the opposite will occur, with prices averaging higher for the fi rst half of

Feb MarMay June July Aug Sept Oct Nov DecApr2008

Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov DecJan2009

Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov DecJan2010

Jan2011

CA Class1 price

Federal Class I price$8

$10$12$14$16$18$20$22$24

MARKET WATCHMARKET WATCH STRONG INCREASES BETTER THAN FORECAST 2011 COULD BE HEALTHIER THAN EXPECTEDDAIRY PRICES

Mar 2011: $18.23 High: $20.78 Low: $9.43Mar 2011: $19.51 High: $22.77 Low: $11.40 Fluid milk prices (in dollars)

Bob CroppProfessor EmeritusUniversity of Wisconsin – Madison

Used in PD

Used in Lechero

Used in ANM

Used in HG

“He was a man of few words . . .”

Creators Syndicate, Inc. [email protected]© Leigh Rubin! www.creators.com

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14 Progressive Dairyman Issue 5 • March 22, 2011

Mar2009

FebApr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan2010

Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Futures2011 2012

Jan2011

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

STRONG INCREASES BETTER THAN FORECAST 2011 COULD BE HEALTHIER THAN EXPECTED

Class III (in dollars)

3/6/10

4/3/10

5/1/10

6/5/10

7/3/10

8/7/10

9/4/10

10/2/10

11/6/10

12/4/10

1/1/11

2/5/11

3/5/11

2009

$1.00

$1.25

$1.50

$1.75

$2.00

$2.25

$2.50 Mar 5, 2011: $2.08 High: $2.23 Low: $1.16Butter (weekly average in dollars)

3/2/11

3/3/11

3/4/11

2/16/11

2/17/11

2/18/11

2/22/11

2/23/11

2/24/11

2/25/11

2/28/11

3/1/11

2/11/11

2/14/11

2/15/11

$1.95

$1.99

$2.03

$2.07

$2.11

$2.15Butter prices remain at record levels for this time of year.

MayAprMar Nov Dec Jan2011

June July Sept OctAugFeb2010

2009

$0.85

$0.95

$1.05

$1.15

$1.25

$1.35

$1.45 Jan 2011: $1.34 High: $1.35 Low: $0.92 Non-fat dry milk3/13/10

4/3/10

5/1/10

6/5/10

7/3/10

8/7/10

9/4/10

10/2/10

11/6/10

12/4/10

1/1/11

2/5/11

3/5/11

2009

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

$2.00

3/3/11

3/4/11

2/15/11

2/16/11

2/17/11

2/18/11

2/22/11

2/23/11

2/24/11

2/25/11

2/28/11

3/1/11

3/2/11

2/11/11

2/14/11

$1.90

$1.93

$1.96

$1.99

$2.02

$2.05

Mar 5, 2011: $2.00 High: $2.00 Low: $1.11Cheese(weekly average in dollars)

Cheese price on an upward climb, reaching highest price in more than two years.

the year than the second half, and with averages for the year much improved over 2010.

Besides a slowdown in milk production, for these higher prices to hold, domestic sales as well as dairy exports will need to hold close to what is currently projected. As of now, with the exception of fl uid milk, higher wholesale and retail prices appear to not have dampened dairy product sales. But, in the past, higher prices have slowed down sales. So we could experience some of the same again now.

It appears that 2011 is shaping up to be a much better year than earlier

predicted, with much higher milk prices for the fi rst half of the year. Even with lower prices for the second half, they could still average higher than prices experienced the second half of 2010. Dairy producers should evaluate their price risk management strategies and decide whether to protect the price on a portion of their future milk production with opportunities now provided on the futures market. Despite higher milk prices, with much higher feed costs, returns over feed costs will not show the same degree of improvement, especially for those dairy producers who purchase a majority of their feed. PD

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Issue 5 • March 22, 2011 Progressive Dairyman 15

400

500

600

700

800494 600 662 621 512 581 630 595 NA 593 596 603 506 563 585 577 497 554 609 605 524 585 627 589 505

Number of workers employed in ag labor (in thousands)

MARKET WATCHMARKET WATCH AVG. WAGES UP FROM YEAR AGOLABOR

Livestock wages and number of employees employed in ag laborSource: NASS, Agricultural Statistics Board, March 2011

Pacifi c

$11.53 $10.55 +.98¢43 43 NC

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

Mountain I

$10.81 $10.55 +.26¢17 14 +21.4%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 ChangeNorthern Plains

$11.69 $10.14 +$1.5032 19 +68.4%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

Southern Plains

$9.91 $10.21 -.03¢42 47 -10.6%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

Mountain II

$10.56 $11.30 -.74¢14 14 NC

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

California

$10.75 $11.24 -.49¢111 121 -8.3%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

Mountain III

$9.85 $9.59 +.26¢16 18 -11.1%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change Delta

$9.27 $9.35 -.08¢19 23 -17.4%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

Corn Belt II

$10.86 $10.77 +.09¢14 18 -22.2%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

Corn Belt I

$11.72 $10.35 +$1.4022 27 -18.5%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

Lake States

$10.45 $9.97 +.48¢37 41 -9.8%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 ChangeNortheast I

$10.28 $10.56 -.28¢25 18 +38.9%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

Appalachian I

$9.58 $9.14 +.44¢15 20 -25%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

Northeast II

$10.37 $9.63 +.74¢23 22 +4.5%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

Appalachian II

$9.25 $10.11 -.86¢13 14 -7.1%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

Southeast

$11.16 $8.74 +$2.418 17 +5.9%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

Florida

$10.05 $10.35 -.03¢38 43 -11.6%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

Northwest

$10.97 $10.80 +.17¢74 71 +4.2%

Feb.'11 Feb. '10 Change

East Coast

$9.99 $9.70 +.30¢151 157 -3.8%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

Midwest

$11.18 $10.31 +.87¢105 105 NC

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

Southwest

$10.17 $10.35 -.18¢169 186 -9.1%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

United States

$10.52 $10.31 +.21¢505 524 -3.6%

Feb. '11 Feb. '10 Change

400

500

600

700

800

October 2009October 2009October 2009October 2009October 2009

January 2010January 2010January 2010January 2010January 2010

January 2011January 2011January 2011January 2011

January 2005January 2005January 2005January 2005

April 2005April 2005April 2005April 2005April 2005

July 2005

October 2005October 2005October 2005October 2005October 2005

January 2006January 2006January 2006January 2006January 2006

April 2006April 2006April 2006April 2006April 2006

July 2006July 2006July 2006July 2006July 2006

October 2006October 2006October 2006October 2006

April 2007April 2007April 2007April 2007

July 2007July 2007July 2007July 2007July 2007

October 2007October 2007October 2007October 2007October 2007

January 2008January 2008January 2008January 2008January 2008

January 2007

April 2008April 2008April 2008April 2008April 2008

April 2010April 2010April 2010April 2010April 2010

July 2008July 2008July 2008July 2008July 2008

October 2008October 2008October 2008October 2008October 2008

January 2009January 2009January 2009January 2009January 2009

April 2009April 2009April 2009April 2009April 2009

July 2009July 2009July 2009July 2009July 2009

October 2010October 2010October 2010October 2010October 2010

July 2010July 2010July 2010July 2010July 2010

494 600 662 621 512 581 630 595 NA 593 596 603 506 563 585 577 497 554 609 605 524 585 627 589 505

Number of workers employed in ag labor (in thousands)

Livestock wage rate

Employees in ag labor (in thousands)

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80%

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66%

29%

6%

79%

19%

2%

69%

23%

8%

84%

13%

3%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1st Score 2nd Score 1st Score 2nd Score 1st Score 2nd Score

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16 Progressive Dairyman Issue 5 • March 22, 2011