Market Pulse-January 2016 (Public)
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Transcript of Market Pulse-January 2016 (Public)
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7/24/2019 Market Pulse-January 2016 (Public)
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MARKET PULSEJanuary 2016
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Survey Methodology
Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS
Respondents are asked about their last closedtransaction and business activity in their market area
for the previous month and the last year.
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MARKET CONDITIONS
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Floor CallsUp in January
Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Down Flat Up
4
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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7/24/2019 Market Pulse-January 2016 (Public)
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ListingAppointments/Client Presentations Up
Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in yourmarket area this month was
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Down Flat Up
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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7/24/2019 Market Pulse-January 2016 (Public)
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Open HouseTrafficContinue to Dip, Partly Due to
Seasonality
Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%50%
60%
70%
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
Down Flat Up
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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Auctions Up in January
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-1
Down Flat Up
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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All Cash Purchases Up in January
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%35%
40%
45%
50%
Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15
Down Flat Up
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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REALTORSAre Most ConcernedAbout Inventory
9
5.5%
6.0%
8.6%
11%
16%
40%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Lending & financing
Rising Interest Rates
Slow down in economic growth
Home prices overinflated
Decline in housing affordability
Lack of Inventory
Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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REALTORS Remain MostConcernedAbout Inventory
10
Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16
Inventory
Affordability
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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REALTORSOptimistic about MarketConditions in 2016
Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Worsen Same Improve
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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Why REALTORS Expect MarketConditions to
Worsen
Decline in inventory
High prices
Higher interest rates
Affordability declining
Q:Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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LASTTRANSACTION
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Most PropertiesSelling Below/atAsking Price
Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?
17%
47%
36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Over Below At
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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Premium Paid overAsking Price Slightly Higher
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?
12%
9.2%9.8%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Average
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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% Paid BelowAsking Price Remains at Previous Peak
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
Jul-
14
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-
14
Nov-
14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-
15
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-
15
Nov-
15
Dec-
15
Jan-
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Average -5.8 -5.6 -5.8 -6.3 -12%-13%-11%-11%-11%-11% -7.0 -11% -9.6 -11%-10%-12%-13%-13%-13%
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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Market RemainedCompetitive as 2/3 Properties
Received MultipleOffers
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?
58%
65%66%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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Number ofOffers Declining
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2.5 2.5
2.1
Average
Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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Fewer than Properties Had Listing Price Reductions
Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?
31%30%
24%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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Fewer Sellers Becoming Renters
Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
13% 14%
9.5%
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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Share of First-time Buyers Down inJanuaryLong RunAverage: 31%
Q:Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?
36%33%
26%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45% % First-time Buyers Long Run Average
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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Proportion of International Buyers Rebounded in JanuaryLong RunAverage: 6.1%
Q:Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?
4.9%
2.6%
5.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
% International Buyers Long Run Average
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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Top 10Counties
Q: In which county do you live?
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December 2015 January 2016
1 Los Angeles Los Angeles
2 San Diego San Diego
3 Riverside Orange
4 San Bernardino Sacramento5 Orange Riverside
6 Ventura Contra Costa
7 Santa Barbara San Bernardino
8 San Francisco San Mateo
9 Sacramento Placer
10 El Dorado Sonoma
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
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What are REALTORS Saying?
Inventory is the main reason value will be up.
Im concerned with how easy it was for someone to list their
house on Zillow without a REALTOR.
Just remember we are here to serve our clients and you willalways have business.
TRID issues: there are so many glitches and unknowns.
Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to sharewith us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, orother topics?
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SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey