Market Pulse, August 2015

MARKET PULSEAugust 2015

1

Survey Methodology

Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS

Respondents are asked about their last closedtransaction and business activity in their market areafor the previous month and the last year.

2

LASTTRANSACTION

3

More than Half Are SellingAt or AboveAsking

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

27%

48%

25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug

-15

Over Below At

4

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Premium Paid OverAsking Price Dropped

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?

8.4%

11%

8.2%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug

-15

Average

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Percent Paid BelowAsking Price Increases

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Average -5.8%-5.6%-5.8%-6.3% -12% -13% -11% -11% -11% -11% -7.0% -11% -9.6% -11%

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58% of Properties Receiving MultipleOffers

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

61%67%

58%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%Ja

n-14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug

-15

7


Number of Offers Received Decreased

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0Ja

n-14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug

-15

2.5

3.0

2.4

Average

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

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Proportion of Properties with Listing Price ReductionsIncreased

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?

26%28%

30%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

9


About Half of Buyers were Previous Renters

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

28%

38%

45%

10


Sellers Becoming Renters Remain Steady

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

20%

15%16%

11


Share of First-time Buyers Remain Steady

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

28%

32%30%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%Ja

n-14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug

-15

% First-time Buyers Long Run Average

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Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Q: What was the intended use of the property?

71% 78%

60%

19%16%

27%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug

-15

Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other

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International Buyers Fluctuate

Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?

5.2%

8.0%

3.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug

-15

% International Buyers Long Run Average

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MARKET CONDITIONS

15

Floor Calls from Potential Clients Declining

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug

-15

Last MonthDown Flat Up

16


ListingAppointments/Presentations toClientsSlowing Down

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in yourmarket area this month was

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug

-15

Last Month

Down Flat Up

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Open HouseTraffic Continue to Dip

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15

Down Flat Up

18


Auctions Steady

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was

45%

41%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15

Down Flat Up

19


All Cash PurchasesContinue to Decline

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was

42%

39%

19%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15

Down Flat Up

20


Majority of REALTORS Expect Better/SimilarMarketConditionsOver the NextYear

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?

19%

47%

34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug

-15

Worsen Same Improve

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Why REALTORS Expect MarketConditions toWorsen

Rise in interest rates

Economic uncertainty

Lack of affordable housing

The global economy

Q: Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?

22


1 In 5 REALTORSAreConcernedAboutAffordability

23

3%

6%

2%

3%

7%

9%

13%

18%

18%

22%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

No Concerns

Other

Policies & Regulations

Housing bubble

Lending & financing

Slow down in economic growth

Rising Interest Rates

Lack of Inventory

Home prices overinflated

Decline in housing affordability

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

What are REALTORS Saying?Sellers arent getting the traffic because ofhigh pricing Contra Costa

Pressures on lending are causing appraisalsto come in low - Fresno

Consumer are very uncertain about theeconomy Riverside

Market seems to be slowing -Yolo

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to sharewith us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, orother topics?

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Market Pulse, August 2015

Documents

Transcript of Market Pulse, August 2015