Market prospects of passenger vehicle technologies and ... · Market prospects of passenger vehicle...

Market prospects of passenger vehicle technologies and their effect on CO2 -emissions up to the year 2030 A model based approach

Bernd PropfeGerman Aerospace CenterInstitute of Vehicle Concepts

June 10, 2010Egmond aan Zee, NL

Institute of Vehicle Concepts

Slide 2Bernd Propfe > 20100610 EE3_DLR_VECTOR21.ppt >

Combustion engine

Plug-In / Range extender

Hybrid

Battery electric

Fuel cell

Long-distance traffic Country roads Urban traffic

Source: Rabe (2009), Fahrzeugbauweisen der Zukunft, 13. Dresdner Leichtbausymposium, Volkswagen / EUCAR

Topics of the Future The main challenges for future automotive technology are the reduction of CO2 -emissions and hence the development of new propulsion technologies



computer model

energy consumption technology costs fuel prices, taxes, …

sales / market shares CO2 emissions

vehicle

technical parts

fuel economy packages

powertrain concept

type of fuel

vehicle size

choice adopter groupcustomer(900 types)

annual mileage

vehicle size

willingness-to-pay

Source: DLR, VECTOR21

Scenario model (VECTOR21) Modeling both technology supply and customer demand

http://stfk153du.fk.st.dlr.de:7777/pls/htmldb/f?p=2015:34:130541984909747::NO:::











3 vehicle sizes: small, medium, large

Input based on historical data of the German Federal Motor Transport Authority

Different distributions for the driving distances, depending on the vehicle size

Data based on the survey „Mobilität in Deutschland 2008 (MiD)“

Five different attitudes towards innovations

Based on theory from Rogers

Crucial for willlingness-to-pay of customers

3

60

5

x

x

900

Adopter group

Annual driving distance

Vehicle segment

L

M

S

Scenario model (VECTOR21) Within the model, 900 different types of customers are simulated

Source: DLR; Mobilität in Deutschland 2008 (MiD); Kraftfartbundesamt



step 3: choose lowest well-to-wheel CO2 emissions

32

1

step 2: choose lowest relevant cost of ownership (RCO)step 1: filter for vehicle size category and general compulsory requirements1

2

3

vehicle variants (combination of vehicle technology and fuel)


Scenario model (VECTOR21) The buying-decision is implemented in a three step approach



Scenario model (VECTOR21) The model has been validated using historical data for market penetrations of Diesel-vehicles on the German market



2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Oil price [€/bbl] 54 52 50 58 65Share of biofuels [%] 0-8 4-11 8-13 11-14 15Electricity – Source German mix Electricity – CO2 intensity [g/kWh] 600 610 620 590 550Electricity – price [€/kWh] 0.18 0.18 0.35 0.35 0.35Hydrogen – source natural gas electricity Hydrogen – CO2 intensity [g/kWh] 350 350 740 700 650Hydrogen – price [€/kWh] 0.16 0.16 0.35 0.35 0.35CO2 – target value new vehicles [g/km] --- 140 125 113 113CO2 – penalty for exceeding target [€/(g/km)] --- 95 95 95 95Customers – willingess to pay for fuel economy [%] 0-10 0-10 0-10 0-10 0-10Vehicle size categories (small / medium / large) [%] 25/55/20 26/52/21 28/50/23 29/47/24 30/45/25


Scenario 1 - Business-as-usual The first scenario represents a rather conservative development incorporating only evolutionary changes



20152010 2020 2025 2030

50%

100%

0%

D-HEVCNGBEV

G-HEV

G

FCV D

20152010 2020 2025 2030

50%

100%

0%

CNG-HEVFCV

G-HEV

G

EREV

DCNG

BEV

20152010 2020 2025 2030

50%

100%

0%

D-HEV

CNGCNG-HEVEREV

D

G-HEV

G

20152010 2020 2025 2030

50%

100%

0%

D-HEV

CNGCNG-HEVEREV

D

G-HEV

G

BEVFCV

small medium

large all


Scenario 1 - Business-as-usual Alternative propulsion concepts will not be able to gain significant market shares



2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Oil price [€/bbl] 54 52 50 58 65Share of biofuels [%] 0-8 6-14 13-18 19-21 25Electricity – Source renewables Electricity – CO2 intensity [g/kWh] 20 20 20 20 20Electricity – price [€/kWh] 0,21 0,21 0,37 0,37 0,37Hydrogen – source electricity Hydrogen – CO2 intensity [g/kWh] 25 25 25 25 25Hydrogen – price [€/kWh] 0,21 0,21 0,38 0,38 0,38CO2 – target value new vehicles [g/km] --- 140 113 95 76CO2 – penalty for exceeding target [€/(g/km)] --- 95 105 113 120Customers – willingess to pay for fuel economy [%] 0-20 0-20 0-20 0-20 0-20Vehicle size categories (small / medium / large) [%] 25/55/20 26/52/21 28/50/23 29/47/24 30/45/25


Scenario 2 - Climate Protection An alternative scenario assumes a rather eco-friendly-future development



20152010 2020 2025 2030

50%

100%

0%

CNG

BEV

G-HEVG

D

D-HEVCNG-HEV

FCV

20152010 2020 2025 2030

50%

100%

0%

D

FCV

G-HEV

G

EREV

BEV

CNG

D-HEV

CNG-HEV

20152010 2020 2025 2030

50%

100%

0%

CNG-HEVFCV

EREV

G-HEVG

CNGD D-HEV

20152010 2020 2025 2030

50%

100%

0%

BEV

D

FCV

EREV

G-HEV

G

CNG-HEV

D-HEVCNG

small medium

large all


Scenario 2 - Climate Protection Starting around 2020, alternative propulsion concepts will be able to gain significant market shares throughout all vehicle segments



20152010 2020 2025 2030

50%

100%

0%

D-HEVCNG

D

G-HEV

G

BEV

20152010 2020 2025 2030

D-HEVDG-HEV

G

FCVBEVEREVCNG

BEV

D

FCV

EREV

G-HEV

G

CNG-HEV

D-HEVCNG

50%

100%

0%

D-HEV

CNGCNG-HEVEREV

D

G-HEV

G

BEVFCV

New

veh

icle

flee

tVe

hicl

e st

ock

Business-as-usual Climate Protection


Business-as-usual vs. Climate Protection Nevertheless, the entire vehicle stock will only adapt slowly to the changes



20152010 2020 2025 2030

100

200

0

Sc.1

CO2 -emissions [g/km]

150

50

TTW

20152010 2020 2025 2030

200

400

0

Subsidies [mn €]

300

100

Sc.2

20152010 2020 2025 2030

20

40

0

RCO [€1,000]

10

30 Sc.2

20152010 2020 2025 2030

15

20

0

Manufacturers [bn €]

10

5

Sc.2

Sc.1

Sc.2WTTSc.1

Sc.1

Economical effects The second scenario shows that significant reductions of CO2 -emissions are feasible, but come at high costs


Slide 17Bernd Propfe > 20100610 EE3_DLR_VECTOR21.ppt >Prof. Dr.-Ing. Friedrich > 20100517 IMA_Prof_Friedrich.ppt -

German Aerospace CenterInstitute of Vehicle Concepts

Market prospects of passenger vehicle technologies and ... · Market prospects of passenger vehicle...

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