MARKET OUTLOOK - Quantum Residential Property Trust presentation - Everto… · sale volumes & time...
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MARKET OUTLOOK
Transcript of MARKET OUTLOOK - Quantum Residential Property Trust presentation - Everto… · sale volumes & time...
MARKET
OUTLOOK
PROPERTY
CYCLE
UPSWING
PEAK
DOWNTURN
TROUGH
RECOVERY
TEN CYCLES SINCE 1880
AVERAGE 8 YEARS
5 YEARS UPSWING @ 11% pa
3 YEARS DOWNTURN @ - 5% pa
PAST CYCLES AVG 8.5% PA
PROPERTY CYCLE?
1. LIQUIDITY EASE & COST OF FUNDS
2. ECONOMY PROFITS & EMPLOYMENT
3. DEMAND HOUSEHOLD FORMATION;
SALE VOLUMES & TIME TAKEN TO SELL
4. RETURNS CAPITAL GROWTH/YIELDS
5. SCARCITY SUPPLY V. DEMAND & FOR SALE/RENT
6. CONFIDENCE GREED/CAUTION
7. FACTOR X SMSF; CHINA; FIRB & AUSSIE $
NEXT
PROPERTY CYCLE
AVG 5% PA
WHY, SAY, 5% PA
1. LIQUIDITY LOW INTEREST RATES
2. ECONOMY STRUCTURAL ISSUES & BUDGET DEFICIT
3. DEMAND CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
4. RETURNS LOW AFFORDABILITY
5. SCARCITY SPARE CAPACITY; CHANGING DEMAND
6. CONFIDENCE MORE REACTIONARY – INTERNET/CELEBRITY
7. FACTOR X CHINA; COSTS & NEW URBAN FORMS
PROPERTY
CLOCK
12
9
6
3
12
9
6
3
UPSWING
PEAK
DOWNTURN
TROUGH
RECOVERY
12
9
6
3
UPSWING
PEAK
DOWNTURN
TROUGH
RECOVERY ENQUIRY INCREASING
RISE IN BUILDING ACTIVITY
RISING SALES
RETURN PRICE GROWTH
IMPROVING RENTS
MORE EQUAL MARKET
ENQUIRY DECLINING
ABANDONED PROJECTS
FALLING SALES
FALLING PRICES
FALLING RENTS
VERY cautious MARKET
STAGNATE ENQUIRY
SLOW BUILDING ACTIVITY
FLAT SALE VOLUMES
STEADY/FALLING PRICES
STABLE RENTS
BUYER’S MARKET
HIGH ENQUIRY
RAMPED UP APPROVALS
FAST SALES
STRONG PRICE GROWTH
RENTS PEAKING
SELLER’S MARKET
12
9
6
3
CANBERRA
HOBART
MELBOURNE ADELAIDE
BRISBANE
SYDNEY
PERTH
DARWIN
MARKET
INDICATORS
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
MATUSIK ANALYSIS
SOURCE: ABS 6291.0.55.011
FEBRUARY 2014.
BRISBANE CITY
TOTAL POPULATION
AS AT MID-2104
ANNUAL CHANGE
LAST YEAR
TOP 10 URBAN AREAS IN AUSTRALIA
2
4 5
BRISBANE 2.3M 45,000 3 RANK BASED ON
TOTAL POPULATION
PERTH 2.0M 65,000
ADELAIDE 1.3M 14,000
MELBOURNE 4.4M 79,000
NEWCASTLE 431K 10,000
CANBERRA 389K 14,000 1
3 6 7
8
9
10 SYDNEY 4.8M 64,000
BRISBANE 2.3M 45,000
GOLD COAST 615K 23,000
SUNSHINE COAST 297K 11,000
WOLLONGONG 286K 3,100
BRISBANE CITY TOTAL RESIDENTIAL SALES
MATUSIK ANALYSIS
SOURCE: RPDATA & QLD
GOVERNMENT.
QUARTERS.
MATUSIK ESTIMATE IN RED.
BRISBANE CITY RESIDENTIAL PRICES $
ENTERING MARKET RECOVERY
POPULATION GROWTH
POSITIVE OPINION & COMMENTARY
SOUTHERN INVESTOR FOCUS
ENQUIRY & SALES INCREASING
JOB CREATION
PRICE & RENTAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
BUT LIMITS TO GROWTH & DEMAND
HOUSING
DEMOGRAPHICS
BRISBANE CITY HOUSING DEMO STATISTICS
60% NO CHILDREN AT HOME
25% COUPLES ONLY
25% LIVE ALONE
BRISBANE CITY HOUSING DEMO STATISTICS
60% NO CHILDREN AT HOME
25% COUPLES ONLY
25% LIVE ALONE
70% DETACHED HOUSES
20% APARTMENTS
10% ATTACHED DWELLINGS
BRISBANE CITY HOUSING DEMO STATISTICS
60% NO CHILDREN AT HOME
25% COUPLES ONLY
25% LIVE ALONE
70% DETACHED HOUSES
20% APARTMENTS
10% ATTACHED DWELLINGS
50% 4+ BED HOUSES
30% 3+ BED APARTMENTS
60% 3+ BED ATTACHED
AFFORDABILITY
DETACHED HOUSE
$550,000 RATIO 6.9 TO DIS. INCOME
$495 WEEK 38% INCOME
AFFORDABILITY
DETACHED HOUSE
$550,000 RATIO 6.9 TO DIS. INCOME
$495 WEEK 38% INCOME
ATTACHED DWELLINGS
$410,000 RATIO 5.1 TO DIS. INCOME
$395 WEEK 30% INCOME
AFFORDABILITY
DETACHED HOUSE
$550,000 RATIO 6.9 TO DIS. INCOME
$495 WEEK 38% INCOME
ATTACHED DWELLINGS
$410,000 RATIO 5.1 TO DIS. INCOME
$395 WEEK 30% INCOME
A FORCED SHIFT IN DEMAND
MARKET
DIRECTION
GROSS RENTAL YIELDS - LONG TERM TENANCIES
TRADITIONAL ATTACHED PRODUCT/
HOUSES SMALL-LOT HOMES
SYDNEY 3.9% 4.7%
MELBOURNE 3.4% 4.2%
BRISBANE 4.2% 5.5% ADELAIDE 4.3% 4.9%
PERTH 4.2% 4.8%
CAPITALS 3.9% 4.7%
MEDIAN DWELLING PRICES – AS AT JAN 2014
SYDNEY $660,000 13.4% PA
MELBOURNE $553,000 11.9%
BRISBANE $462,000 3.8% ADELAIDE $390,000 2.5%
PERTH $525,000 6.9%
CAPITALS $534,000 9.8%
12
9
6
3
CANBERRA
HOBART
MELBOURNE ADELAIDE
BRISBANE
SYDNEY
PERTH
DARWIN
BETTER
APARTMENT BUYING
LOCATION
EMPLOYMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE
“PULSE POINT”
SUPPLY V. DEMAND
EVERTON PARK AREA
UNDERLYING DEMAND 375pa
RECENT SUPPLY 390pa
BALANCED
INNER NORTH
UNDERLYING DEMAND 750pa
RECENT SUPPLY 1,500pa
OVERSUPPLIED
INNER WEST
UNDERLYING DEMAND 425pa
RECENT SUPPLY 250pa
UNDERSUPPLIED
INNER SOUTH
UNDERLYING DEMAND 675pa
RECENT SUPPLY 725pa
STILL BALANCED
SITE
OVERALL SIZE
NO. OF DWELLINGS
OUTLOOK
ORIENTATION
ELEVATION
DESIGN
PRODUCT SIZE
FLOOR PLATE LAYOUT
LIGHT + PRECEPTION OF SPACE
LIFT TO APARTMENT RATIO
SHARING – ENSUITES, EQUAL BEDROOMS
STORAGE
OWNER-RESIDENT RESALE APPEAL
FOUR F’S
FIXTURES
FINISHES
FITTINGS
FACILITIES
BODY CORP. FEES
MATUSIK.COM.AU
FOCUS REPORT
BRISBANE
RENTAL MARKET
MATUSIK.COM.AU
FOCUS REPORT
BRISBANE
RENTAL MARKET
THIS MATUSIK PRESENTATION IS OPINION & NOT ADVICE.
THE AUDIENCE SHOULD SEEK THEIR OWN PROFESSIONAL
ADVICE ON THE SUBJECT BEING DISCUSSED.
END
NOTES
RESIDENTIAL CYCLE
MARKET RECOVERY
COMING CYCLE/S LESS OVERALL GAINS
BRISBANE CITY MARKET IN RECOVERY
LIMITS TO CAPITAL GROWTH
DRIVE RENTAL RETURNS
‘ALTERNATE HOUSING’ BETTER INVESTMENTS
