Market Outlook, 29th January 2013
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Transcript of Market Outlook, 29th January 2013
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Market OutlookJanuary 29, 2013
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Market OutlookJanuary 29, 2013
Dealers Diary
The Indian market is expected to open flat today, mirroring flat opening in the SGX
Nifty and marginally positive opening trades in most of the Asian bourses. Investors
would keenly watch out for the outcome of the RBIs monetary policy meetscheduled today.
The US stocks, after trending higher over the past few weeks, showed a lack of
direction throughout the trading on Monday. The lackluster performance came as
traders seemed reluctant to make any significant moves following the recent
strength. The European markets ended the trading session on Monday with mixed
results. Investors were pleased with some positive economic data from China, as
well as the surge in U.S. durable goods orders. However, the larger than expected
decrease in U.S. pending home sales provided a note of caution.
Meanwhile, the Indian markets ended a lackluster session largely unchanged as
investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the monetary policy meet of RBI
scheduled today and the January series F&O expiry slated for Thursday.
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 20,113 / 6,075 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 20,163 20,223 / 6,088 6,102 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
20,113 / 6,075 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
20,053 20,003 / 6,061 6,048 levels.
SENSEX 20,003 20,053 20,113 20,163 20,223NIFTY 6,048 6,061 6,075 6,088 6,102
News Analysis Axis Bank to raise`5,546cr via QIP and preferential allotment 3QFY2013 Result Review: Bank of India, JSW Steel, Amara Raja, KPIT 3QFY2013 Result Preview: Sterlite, Idea, Dabur, Crompton Greaves, Indoco
Remedies, Hitachi
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (January 24, 2013)
FII 8,321 6,626 1,695 18,122 18,122
MFs 411 609 (198) (3,530) (3,530)
FII Derivatives (January 28, 2013)
Index Futures 2,650 2,686 (36) 8,825
Stock Futures 6,496 6,387 109 34,748
Gainers / Losers
Bharat Elect 1,308 5.3 Adani Power 61 (4.4)
Adani Ports 137 4.9 Jain Irrigation 74 (3.9)Yes Bank 522 3.6 Opto Circuits 84 (3.6)
MCX 1,412 3.4 HPCL 341 (2.9)
Satyam Comp 124 3.1 Bank of India 355 (2.5)
BSE Sensex (0.0) (0.2) 20,103
Nifty 0.0 0.1 6,075
MID CAP 0.0 1.6 6,976
SMALL CAP 0.3 19.3 7,162
BSE HC (0.1) (5.9) 7,986
BSE PSU (0.5) (35.0) 7,643
BANKEX 0.7 98.5 14,664
AUTO 1.0 114.1 11,185
METAL 0.3 30.1 10,629
OIL & GAS (1.1) (109.0) 9,427
BSE IT 0.4 28.4 6,443
Dow Jones (0.1) (14.1) 13,882NASDAQ 0.1 4.6 3,154
FTSE 0.2 10.0 6,294
Nikkei (0.9) (102.3) 10,824
Hang Seng 0.4 91.5 23,672
Straits Times 0.1 4.6 3,274
Shanghai Com 2.4 55.2 2,347
INFY (0.9) (0.5) $52.2
WIT 0.2 0.0 $9.5IBN (0.3) (0.1) $46.3
HDB (1.0) (0.4) $40.4
Advances 1,213 796
Declines 992 688
Unchanged 767 84
BSE 2,010
NSE 11,026
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Market OutlookJanuary 29, 2013
Axis Bank to raise`5,546cr via QIP and preferential allotment
Axis Bank has launched its `5,546cr fund raising drive on Monday through
qualified institutional placement (QIP) and preferential allotment. The banks QIP
issue size is around`4,726cr which involves an issue of 34mn shares. It will also
allot 5mn shares aggregating`
820cr on preferential basis to LIC and otherpromoters. The offer price is fixed at `1,390 per equity share. We note that Axis
Bank's tier-I capital adequacy had dipped to 8.8% as of 3QFY2013 (10.3%
including 9MFY2013 profits) from 11.2% in FY2010 due to strong credit growth.
The dilution is at book accretive valuations and will aid in further enhancing the
bank's credit market share going forward. At CMP, Axis Bank is trading at 1.9x
FY2014E ABV more than 50% discount to HDFC Bank vs. an average
discount of 35% over past five years (which we believe over discounts asset quality
concerns). We remain positive on the bank, owing to its attractive CASA franchise,
multiple sources of sustainable fee income and reasonable growth outlook. We
maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of`1,641.
3QFY2013 Result Review
(CMP:`355/ TP: - / Upside: -)
During 3QFY2013, Bank of India reported Net profit growth of 12.2% yoy, mainly
aided by lower tax expenses at`137cr compared to`323cr in 3QFY2012, as the
earnings at PBT level declined by 9.5% yoy.
During 3QFY2013, the bank reported healthy advance growth of 20.0% yoy, while
deposits growth remained moderate at 13.6% yoy. Domestic NIMs declined by
4bp to 2.8%. On the asset quality front, slippages for the quarter moderated to
`1,220cr from `2,733cr in 2QFY2013 and `1,747cr in 1QFY2013. Annualized
slippages ratio came in at 2.0% during the quarter compared to 4.4% in
2QFY2013 and 2.8% in 1QFY2013. Aided by lower slippages and higher write-
offs, Gross NPA levels for the bank, on an absolute basis, came in lower
sequentially by 3.1%. On an absolute basis, Net NPA levels were higher
sequentially by 4.3%. Gross and Net NPA ratios were lower by 34bp and 7bp,
sequentially to 3.1% and 2.0%. The banks PCR declined marginal by 20bp qoq to
60.7%. At CMP, the stock trades at 0.9x FY2014E ABV.
FY2013E 12,568 2.2 2,391 41.6 332.7 0.6 11.6 8.8 1.1
FY2014E 14,758 2.4 3,680 64.0 391.2 0.8 15.9 5.7 0.9
JSW Steel (CMP:`870/ TP: -/ Upside: -)
JSW Steels 3QFY2013 top-line came in lower than our expectation; however, the
bottom-line was slightly better-than-our expectation. Its net sales grew by 5.3% yoy
to`8,275cr (below our estimate of`8,531cr). Net sales growth was driven by an
increase in steel volumes (+14.0% yoy to 2.17mn tonne), although the same was
partially offset by a decline in realizations (-9.5% yoy to `38,804/tonne). Top-line
was below our estimates due to higher-than-expected fall in realizations. The
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Market OutlookJanuary 29, 2013
companys EBITDA increased only 4.9% yoy to`1,314cr on account of decrease in
realizations. The EBITDA margin slipped by 6bp yoy to 15.9%. The company
reported an exceptional item related to forex loss of `327cr during the quarter.
Interest expenses grew by 61.3% yoy to `455cr. Hence, the adjusted net profit
(excluding exceptional items) decreased by 30.6% yoy to`464cr (slightly ahead of
our estimate of`451cr). The reported PAT also declined 19.0% yoy to`137cr.
On the iron ore situation in Karnataka, the company stated that 6 Acategory mines with a capacity of 3.3mtpa have opened up while another 4mines with a capacity of 1.8mtpa are at various stages of approvals. For Bcategory mines, 20 mines received R&R approvals; however, there is no clarityon timelines of production from these mines. On the projects front, thecompany is implementing various projects which are likely to take thecompanys share of value-added products to 40-50% of the total capacity overthe coming two years.
FY2013E 39,586 17.6 2,136 95.8 12.3 9.1 1.1 5.1 0.9
FY2014E 41,594 19.9 2,529113.3 13.0 7.7 0.9 4.3 0.9
Amara Raja Batteries(CMP:`302/ TP: Under Review/ Upside: -)
Amara Raja Batteries (AMRJ) reported strong performance for 3QFY2013 with top-
line and bottom-line beating our estimates yet again. Top-line posted a robust
growth of 23.8% yoy (5.6% qoq) to `759cr led by strong double digit revenue
growth in the automotive replacement (four-wheeler as well as two-wheeler) and
industrial (telecom and UPS) battery segments. However, depressed OEM demandand capacity constraints for four-wheeler batteries restricted further growth in the
top-line. On the operating front, margins remained stable on a sequential basis
and stood at 16% as raw-material expense for the company remained stable
despite increase in lead prices. On a yoy basis though, margins declined 130bp
mainly on account of 200bp increase in other expenditure as a percentage of
sales which could possibly be on account of higher promotional and advertising
expenses. Led by strong operating performance and higher other income, net
profit registered a strong 22.7% yoy (flat qoq) growth to`81cr. At`302 the stock is
trading at 14.4x FY2014 earnings. We are in the process of reviewing our
estimates and come up with a detailed result update post our interaction with the
management.
FY2013E 2,987 16.1 317 18.6 33.0 16.2 4.7 10.3 1.7
FY2014E 3,442 16.0 356 20.9 28.3 14.4 3.6 8.9 1.4
KPIT (CMP:`115 / TP: Under review / Upside: -)
KPIT Cummins Infosystems (KPIT) reported its 3QFY2013 results which werein-line with our estimates on the revenue front but disappointed on the
operating front. The dollar revenues came in at US$103mn, almost flat qoq.In INR terms, revenues came in at`563cr, down 0.7% qoq. EBITDA margin ofthe company declined by 100bp qoq to 15.7%, because of lower workingdays during the quarter coupled with decline in average realization rate.
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Market OutlookJanuary 29, 2013
Adjusted PAT came in higher than expected at`60cr, up 47% qoq, aided byother income of `8cr as against loss of `19cr in 2QFY2013.
FY2013E 2,221 16.1 199 11.3 21.9 10.2 2.3 5.7 0.9
FY2014E 2,390 15.9 240 13.0 20.9 8.9 1.8 4.9 0.8
Hitachi Home (CMP:`147/ TP: -/ Upside: -)
For 3QFY2013, Hitachi Home (HHLS) reported a better than expected topline
growth of 33.9% yoy to`144cr from`107cr in 3QFY2012. However, the company
made loss of`4cr on the operating (EBITDA) front in line with our expectation, on
account of seasonal nature of the business. Adjusted PAT was in line with our
expectation at`6cr vs a loss of `10cr in 3QFY2012E. The company inaugurated
the re-constructed facility of Kadi on 13 th Jan 2013 which caught fire in July 2012.
FY2013E 873 4.4 15 6.4 8.3 23.1 1.9 10.1 0.4
FY2014E 989 6.5 28 12.2 14.4 12.1 1.6 5.4 0.4
3QFY2013 Result Preview
Sterlite Industries (CMP:`114 / TP: - / Upside: -)
Sterlite Industries is slated to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. The top-line is
expected to grow by 10.2% yoy to `11,288cr. EBITDA margin is expected to
expand by 21bp yoy to 22.8% due to improvement in its Aluminium segment
profitability. The bottom-line is expected to increase by 13.3% yoy to `1,524cr.
FY2013E 42,891 22.6 5,467 16.3 11.3 7.0 0.8 3.4 0.8
FY2014E 45,864 23.6 6,152 18.3 11.5 6.2 0.7 2.9 0.7
Idea Cellular(CMP:`113 / TP: - / Upside: -)
Idea Cellular is slated to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect the
company to record revenue of `5,453cr, up 2.6% qoq. This is expected primarily
on the back of almost flat ARPM at`0.41/min and 1.5% qoq growth in MOU to
364min. APRU is expected to increase by 1.7% qoq to `151/month. EBITDA
margin of the company is expected to improve by 30bp qoq to 27.1%. PAT is
expected at`251cr.
FY2013E 21,797 26.9 1,036 3.1 7.4 35.9 2.6 8.1 2.2
FY2014E 23,142 27.7 1,537 4.7 9.8 24.2 2.4 7.2 2.0
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Market OutlookJanuary 29, 2013
Dabur (CMP:`131/ TP:-/ Upside:-)
Dabur is slated to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. The company is expected
to post a 13.8% yoy growth in topline to 1,654cr. OPM is expected to grow by
135bp yoy to 16.6%. Bottomline is expected to grow by 26.9% yoy to `219cr.
FY2013E 6,124 17.0 811 4.7 44.5 28.2 11.9 22.3 3.8
FY2014E 7,101 16.8 944 5.4 41.4 24.2 9.3 19.2 3.2
Crompton Greaves (CMP:`108/TP:`135/Upside: 24%)
For 3QFY2013, we project Crompton Greaves to report a modest top-line growth
of 13% yoy to`3,422cr. Weak capex cycle along with strained consumer sentiment
is also likely to impact the company's growth. On the EBITDA front, the company's
margin is expected at 5.0% due to restructuring losses. Though we expect a
modest revenue growth, however, due to stress on margins, we expect the
company's PAT to fall by 3.9% yoy to`74cr.
FY2013E 12,320 5.5 275 4.3 7.4 25.4 1.8 10.5 0.6
FY2014E 14,390 7.2 501 7.8 12.6 14.0 1.7 7.1 0.5
Indoco Remedies (CMP:`63/ Target:`89/ Upside: 41.3%)
For 3QFY2013, Indoco Remedies is expected to report top-line growth of 30.8% to
`185cr.The OPM is expected to expand by 350bps yoy to 16.5%, driven by growth
in domestic formulation sales. As a result, net profit is expected to increase by
124.0% yoy to `18.5cr on back of improvement of OPM.
FY2013E 685 15.2 68 7.4 16.4 8.4 1.3 6.5 1.0
FY2014E 837 15.2 82 8.9 17.0 7.0 1.1 5.7 0.9
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Net sales 3,224 3,028 6 2,924 10
EBITDA 159 183 (13) 136 17
EBITDA margin (%) 4.9 6.0 4.7
Net profit 67 77 (12) 42 62
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Market OutlookJanuary 29, 2013
Net sales 1,709 1,453 18 1,523 12
EBITDA 281 232 21 269 4
EBITDA margin (%) 16.4 16.0 17.7
Net profit 210 172 22 204 3
Net sales 1,259 1,031 22 1,255 0
EBITDA 269 103 162 271 (1)
EBITDA margin (%) 21.4 10.0 21.6
Net profit 170 46 269 160 6
Net sales 5,520 5,020 10 5,307 4
EBITDA 1,500 1,345 12 1,423 5
EBITDA margin (%) 27.2 26.8 26.8
Net profit 269 201 34 240 12
Net sales 11,047 10,246 8 11,029 0
EBITDA 2,523 2,318 9 2,527 (0)
EBITDA margin (%) 22.8 22.6 22.9Net profit 1,398 1,380 1 2,322 (40)
Net sales 2,082 1,872 11 1,802 16
EBITDA 363 348 4 326 11
EBITDA margin (%) 17.4 18.6 18.1
Net profit 142 122 17 139 2
Net sales 796 670 19 774 3
EBITDA 167 149 12 176 (5)
EBITDA margin (%) 21.0 22.3 22.7
Net profit 137 116 18 145 (6)
Net profit 1,042 1,108 (6) 1,036 1
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Market OutlookJanuary 29, 2013
Net sales 2,888 2,440 18 2,258 28
EBITDA 286 213 34 249 15
EBITDA margin (%) 9.9 8.7 11.0
Net profit 205 164 25 180 14
Net sales 1,701 1,344 27 1,595 7
EBITDA 309 272 13 249 24
EBITDA margin (%) 18.1 20.2 15.6
Net profit 205 183 12 168 22
Net sales 6,686 6,260 7 6,552 2
EBITDA 1,249 1,413 (12) 1,405 (11)
EBITDA margin (%) 18.7 22.6 21.4
Net profit 540 904 (40) 841 (36)
Net profit 2,077 1,728 20 1,956 6
Net sales 1,037 971 7 1,068 (3)
EBITDA 186 179 4 200 (7)
EBITDA margin (%) 17.9 18.4 18.7
Net profit 148 141 5 161 (8)
Net sales 2,314 1,792 29 2,239 3
EBITDA 483 374 29 516 (6)
EBITDA margin (%) 20.9 20.8 23.0
Net profit 298 241 24 297 0
Net profit 1,146 1,150 (0) 1,066 8
Net sales 2,433 2,361 3 3,269 (26)
EBITDA 161 123 31 99 63
EBITDA margin (%)6.6 5.2 3.0
Net profit 92 71 30 (56) (265)
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Market OutlookJanuary 29, 2013
Net sales 1,783 1,793 (1) 1,843 (3)
EBITDA 207 181 14 161 29
EBITDA margin (%) 11.6 10.1 8.7
Net profit 106 82 29 140 (24)
Net profit 580 197 194 555 5
Economic and Political News
Government approves 4 FDI proposals worth`280cr Government to review delays in`52,000cr Posco project Finance Ministry for export parity pricing of diesel Centre, States agree on CST compensation formula, paves way for GST roll
out
Corporate News
RIL hits overseas debt markets again, launches US$500mn issue Coal India to raise output by 6% in FY14 Glenmark receives US nod for skin disease creamSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
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Date Company
January 29, 2013Sterlite Inds, Idea Cellular, Dabur India, Crompton Greaves, Reliance Capital, Glenmark Pharma., United Phosphorus,Areva, Indoco Remedies, Hitachi
January 30, 2013 Titan Inds., Power Fin.Corpn., Nalco, Colgate, Central Bank, IOB, Ipca labs, Dena Bank, Jyoti Structures, PVR
January 31, 2013ICICI Bank, Punjab Natl.Bank, Siemens, Grasim Inds, Lupin, Union Bank, Godrej Consumer, Cummins India,Mahindra Satyam, Allahabad Bank, Tata Global, Thermax, Jagran Prakashan
February 01, 2013 Bharti Airtel, BHEL, Adani Enterp., IDFC, Marico, Corporation Bank, TVS Motor, Hind. Const., Graphite India
February 02, 2013 Divi's Lab., Indian Bank
February 03, 2013
February 04, 2013 J & K Bank, Bank of Baroda, Rural Elec.Corp., United Spirits, ITNL, Taj GVK
February 05, 2013 NHPC, UCO Bank, United Bank
February 06, 2013 Tech Mahindra, MOIL, Apollo Tyres, Bajaj Electrical, Automotive Axle, J K Lakshmi Cements, Honeywell Automation
February 07, 2013 Ambuja Cements, ACC, Aurobindo Pharma, Anant Raj, JK Tyre, CEAT, MRF, Jyothy Laboratories
February 08, 2013M&M, Sun Pharma, Hindalco, Cadila Healthcare, GMR Infra., Tata Chemicals, GSPL, BGR Energy , Nagarjuna Const.,Subros, Cravatex
February 09, 2013 Indraprasth Gas
February 10, 2013February 11, 2013 ONGC, Tata Power Co., Britannia, Hexaware, GIPCL, Dishman Pharma
February 12, 2013 SAIL, HPCL, CESC
February 13, 2013 BPCL, Madras Cements, PTC India
February 14, 2013 Dr Reddy's, Page Industries, India Cements, FAG Bearings
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Result Calendar
Global economic events release calendar
Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
January 30, 2013 3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Jan F (23.90) (23.90)
7:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 4Q A 3.10 1.10
January 31, 2013 7:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Jan 26 330.00 355.00
2:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Jan 3.00 8.00
12:45AM US FOMC rate decision % Jan 30 0.25 0.25
February 1, 2013 2:25PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jan F 48.80 48.80
7:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Jan 155.00 160.00
7:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Jan 7.80 7.80
3:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jan 51.40 51.00
6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Jan 50.60 51.00
February 5, 2013 2:25PM Germany PMI Services Value Jan F 55.30 --
February 7, 2013 5:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Feb 7 0.50 0.506:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Feb 7 0.75 --
3:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Dec (2.40) --
February 8, 2013 5:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Jan 14.10 --
11:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Jan 2.50 --
February 11, 2013 5:29PM India Imports YoY% % Change Jan 6.30 --
5:29PM India Exports YoY% % Change Jan (1.90) --
February 12, 2013 3:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Jan 2.70 --
11:00AM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Dec (0.10) --
February 14, 2013 12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Jan 7.18 --
12:30PM Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change 4Q P 0.40 --
3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 4Q A (0.10) --
February 15, 2013 7:45PM US Industrial Production % Jan 0.26 --
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
January 29, 2013
Market Outlook
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Macro watch
Exhibit1:
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Exhibit2:
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit3:
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit4:
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit5:
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit6:
Source: RBI, Angel Research
3.5
5.7
9.0
7.5
11.2
8.5
7.68.2
9.2
8.0
6.76.1
5.3 5.5 5.3
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
(%)
2.7
1.0
4.3
(2.8) (1.3)
2.5
(2.0) (0.1)
2.0
(0.7)
8.3
(0.1)(4.0)
(2.0)
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Ju
l-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oc
t-12
Nov-1
2
(%)
7.7
6.9
7.4
7.77.5 7.6
7.6 7.5
8.0 8.1
7.5
7.2
6.26.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
(%)
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Mfg. PMI Services PMI
(30.0)
(15.0)
0.0
15.0
30.0
Jan-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Ju
l-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oc
t-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)
8.00
7.00
4.25
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Ju
l-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oc
t-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis Neutral 137 - 2,656 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 19.5 16.9 4.1 3.5 22.6 22.5 1.9 1.6
United Phosphorus Buy 137 170 6,055 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 9.1 8.1 1.3 1.2 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Amara Raja Batteries Neutral 302 - 5,150 2,987 3,442 16.1 16.0 18.6 20.9 16.2 14.5 4.7 3.6 33.0 28.3 1.7 1.4
Apollo Tyres Accumulate 84 96 4,236 13,713 15,341 11.2 11.2 12.5 14.8 6.7 5.7 1.3 1.0 20.2 19.9 0.5 0.4
Ashok Leyland Accumulate 25 28 6,625 12,910 14,836 8.8 9.6 1.5 2.2 16.8 11.2 2.2 2.0 9.3 13.4 0.6 0.5
Automotive Axle# Neutral 370 - 559 1,103 1,240 11.0 11.3 39.1 45.0 9.5 8.2 1.7 1.7 19.5 22.8 0.6 0.4Bajaj Auto Neutral 2,087 - 60,376 20,775 23,889 18.5 19.0 107.6 126.4 19.4 16.5 8.0 6.3 45.8 42.8 2.5 2.1
Bharat Forge Buy 233 278 5,424 6,754 7,565 15.5 15.7 18.8 23.2 12.4 10.1 2.2 1.8 18.5 19.7 1.0 0.8
Bosch India* Accumulate 9,004 9,570 28,272 9,973 11,320 17.8 18.0 396.2 455.7 22.7 19.8 4.3 3.6 18.8 18.2 2.5 2.1
CEAT Buy 107 163 367 4,989 5,634 8.2 8.5 27.1 40.8 4.0 2.6 0.5 0.4 13.2 17.2 0.3 0.2
Exide Industries Neutral 121 - 10,277 6,112 7,074 13.1 14.9 6.1 8.2 19.8 14.8 3.0 2.6 16.0 18.8 1.4 1.1
FAG Bearings* Accumulate 1,667 1,807 2,770 1,715 1,939 17.6 18.4 127.7 150.6 13.1 11.1 2.6 2.1 21.7 21.1 1.4 1.1
Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,797 1,923 35,877 23,990 27,038 13.8 14.6 105.8 120.2 17.0 15.0 6.8 5.5 44.3 41.0 1.2 1.0
JK Tyre Buy 117 165 482 7,517 8,329 6.6 6.6 37.2 41.3 3.2 2.8 0.6 0.5 18.8 17.8 0.3 0.3
Mahindra and MahindraAccumulate 905 998 55,544 40,035 46,272 11.5 11.6 54.4 62.1 16.6 14.6 3.7 3.1 24.2 23.2 1.2 1.0
Maruti Neutral 1,607 - 46,435 42,304 51,088 7.5 8.7 64.4 92.9 25.0 17.3 2.8 2.4 11.6 14.9 0.9 0.7
Motherson Sumi Neutral 197 - 11,578 24,285 27,317 6.7 7.2 8.1 10.6 24.5 18.6 5.2 4.2 22.9 24.7 0.6 0.6
Subros Buy 28 35 165 1,286 1,479 9.4 9.7 2.6 5.1 10.6 5.4 0.6 0.5 5.6 10.3 0.4 0.4
Tata Motors Accumulate 309 337 82,235 190,883 217,164 12.8 13.1 35.5 42.5 8.7 7.3 2.3 1.8 30.2 27.6 0.5 0.4
TVS Motor Accumulate 44 46 2,083 7,298 8,123 6.1 6.4 4.6 5.8 9.6 7.6 1.6 1.4 17.4 19.4 0.3 0.2
Capital Goods
ABB* Reduce 667 573 14,143 7,790 9,653 4.5 7.8 8.7 22.1 76.7 30.2 5.3 4.7 7.1 16.5 1.8 1.4BGR Energy Neutral 249 - 1,798 3,567 4,357 11.8 10.9 24.6 26.8 10.1 9.3 1.5 1.3 30.7 26.3 1.0 0.8
BHEL Neutral 229 - 55,940 47,801 43,757 18.5 18.0 24.6 21.8 9.3 10.5 2.8 2.4 33.5 24.5 1.0 1.2
Blue Star Buy 163 224 1,465 2,538 2,681 4.6 5.7 7.3 11.3 22.2 14.4 3.3 2.8 15.6 20.7 0.7 0.6
Crompton Greaves Buy 108 135 6,925 12,320 14,390 5.5 7.2 4.3 7.8 25.1 13.8 1.8 1.7 7.4 12.6 0.6 0.5
Jyoti Structures Buy 41 51 338 2,794 3,048 10.6 10.6 9.2 11.7 4.5 3.5 0.5 0.4 11.9 13.5 0.3 0.3
KEC International Buy 64 78 1,645 6,909 7,907 6.2 7.2 5.4 8.8 11.9 7.3 1.4 1.2 17.0 23.6 0.4 0.4
LMW Reduce 2,125 1,992 2,394 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 14.8 12.8 2.5 2.3 17.4 18.4 0.5 0.4
Thermax Neutral 574 - 6,840 5,552 5,767 9.3 10.2 28.3 30.9 20.3 18.6 3.7 3.2 19.3 18.4 1.1 1.0
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January 29, 2013
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7/29/2019 Market Outlook, 29th January 2013
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E
Cement
ACC Neutral 1,328 - 24,938 11,012 12,333 21.1 20.9 77.0 80.3 17.3 16.5 3.3 2.9 19.5 18.7 2.0 1.7
Ambuja Cements Neutral 197 - 30,381 10,210 11,811 26.0 25.7 11.2 12.6 17.6 15.6 3.8 3.4 20.3 20.7 2.6 2.1
India Cements Neutral 89 - 2,720 4,293 4,666 17.7 18.1 8.6 10.8 10.3 8.2 0.8 0.7 7.5 9.0 1.0 0.9
J K Lakshmi Cements Neutral 142 - 1,739 2,171 2,544 22.5 22.5 21.6 23.2 6.6 6.1 1.2 1.0 19.0 17.8 0.9 1.2
Madras Cements Neutral 234 - 5,560 3,814 4,045 28.8 27.1 18.3 18.7 12.8 12.5 2.3 2.0 19.4 17.0 2.1 1.9
Shree Cements^ Neutral 4,489 - 15,640 5,678 6,251 29.0 28.6 288.1 334.0 15.6 13.4 4.4 3.4 31.7 28.4 2.2 1.8
UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,889 - 51,798 20,466 23,017 23.3 24.3 100.0 117.1 18.9 16.1 3.4 2.9 19.6 19.5 2.5 2.3Construction
Ashoka Buildcon Buy 200 286 1,053 2,032 2,311 22.4 22.4 27.0 31.6 7.4 6.3 0.9 0.8 13.0 13.4 1.9 2.2
Consolidated Co Neutral 16 - 292 2,262 2,522 5.9 6.3 0.9 1.6 17.3 10.2 0.5 0.5 2.7 4.6 0.4 0.4
IRB Infra Buy 119 164 3,957 3,843 4,212 43.1 43.6 16.8 17.8 7.1 6.7 1.2 1.1 18.3 17.0 3.2 3.4
ITNL Accumulate 203 225 3,942 6,564 7,054 27.2 27.4 26.3 29.0 7.7 7.0 1.2 1.1 17.0 16.3 2.7 2.8
IVRCL Infra Neutral 36 - 1,099 4,249 6,897 7.8 8.2 0.3 3.4 116.1 10.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 4.4 0.8 0.5
Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 85 100 18,284 13,842 15,863 26.9 26.4 3.7 4.6 23.2 18.6 1.4 1.3 6.2 7.3 2.8 2.5
Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1 ,594 1,788 98,000 60,666 69,525 10.6 11.2 71.9 85.0 22.2 18.8 3.4 3.0 14.5 15.2 1.8 1.6
Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 52 - 1,328 5,947 6,569 8.5 8.6 3.1 4.1 16.7 12.6 0.5 0.5 3.3 4.2 0.6 0.6
Punj Lloyd Neutral 52 - 1,724 11,892 13,116 9.0 9.0 1.8 3.2 28.7 16.2 0.6 0.6 2.0 3.5 0.6 0.5
Sadbhav Engg. Buy 127 168 1,910 2,344 2,804 10.6 10.7 7.2 8.7 17.6 14.6 2.1 1.9 13.0 13.5 1.2 1.0
Simplex Infra Buy 191 251 945 6,882 8,032 9.1 9.1 23.2 31.3 8.2 6.1 0.7 0.7 9.1 11.2 0.5 0.4
Unity Infra Buy 41 59 302 2,180 2,455 13.7 13.4 13.3 15.0 3.1 2.7 0.4 0.3 12.5 12.5 0.5 0.5
Financials
Allahabad Bank Buy 171 199 8,553 6,403 7,186 2.7 2.8 30.5 33.6 5.6 5.1 0.8 0.7 14.9 14.6 - -
Andhra Bank Neutral 117 - 6,525 4,706 5,444 2.9 3.0 21.4 22.4 5.5 5.2 0.9 0.8 15.1 14.2 - -Axis Bank Buy 1,415 1,641 60,445 15,959 18,660 3.2 3.2 119.2 139.0 11.9 10.2 2.2 1.9 20.3 20.1 - -
Bank of Baroda Neutral 870 - 35,772 15,284 18,032 2.5 2.6 109.6 137.7 7.9 6.3 1.2 1.0 15.5 17.1 - -
Bank of India Neutral 355 - 20,384 12,568 14,758 2.2 2.4 41.6 64.1 8.5 5.6 1.1 0.9 11.6 16.0 - -
Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 60 - 3,529 3,720 4,268 2.9 2.8 10.9 13.0 5.5 4.6 0.8 0.7 16.2 16.9 - -
Canara Bank Accumulate 483 516 21,377 10,828 12,005 2.1 2.2 64.7 80.4 7.5 6.0 1.0 0.9 13.2 14.7 - -
Central Bank Neutral 85 - 6,272 7,252 8,236 2.5 2.6 16.8 21.4 5.1 4.0 0.9 0.7 13.1 14.8 - -
Corporation Bank Buy 459 534 6,797 4,835 5,570 2.0 2.2 105.0 99.8 4.4 4.6 0.8 0.7 17.5 14.8 - -
Dena Bank Accumulate 114 124 3,987 3,125 3,457 2.7 2.8 26.2 24.2 4.4 4.7 0.8 0.7 19.6 15.6 - -
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January 29, 2013
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E
Financials
Federal Bank Accumulate 503 557 8,592 2,667 2,920 3.2 3.2 49.1 51.4 10.2 9.8 1.4 1.2 13.9 13.1 - -
HDFC Neutral 802 - 123,627 7,446 8,923 3.5 3.5 32.2 38.5 24.9 20.8 5.1 4.5 35.4 32.6 - -
HDFC Bank Neutral 670 - 158,660 21,724 26,578 4.3 4.3 28.7 36.1 23.4 18.6 4.5 3.8 20.7 22.1 - -
ICICI Bank Buy 1,191 1,397 136,905 22,219 26,447 2.9 3.0 69.1 82.9 17.2 14.4 2.1 1.9 14.2 15.6 - -
IDBI Bank Accumulate 108 122 13,801 8,196 9,305 1.9 2.1 15.4 22.3 7.0 4.8 0.8 0.7 10.7 14.1 - -
Indian Bank Buy 202 252 8,696 5,902 6,563 3.2 3.2 41.3 43.2 4.9 4.7 0.8 0.7 18.4 16.8 - -
IOB Accumulate 84 90 6,719 7,063 8,308 2.3 2.5 12.6 20.4 6.7 4.1 0.6 0.6 9.0 13.3 - -J & K Bank Neutral 1,317 - 6,386 2,830 2,910 3.6 3.6 234.8 197.4 5.6 6.7 1.3 1.1 25.1 18.0 - -
LIC Housing Finance Buy 285 328 14,388 1,799 2,255 2.3 2.4 20.3 27.3 14.0 10.5 2.2 1.9 16.9 19.7 - -
Oriental Bank Neutral 330 - 9,621 6,330 7,105 2.6 2.7 58.4 65.1 5.6 5.1 0.8 0.7 14.5 14.4 - -
Punjab Natl.Bank Accumulate 872 933 29,573 19,688 22,497 3.2 3.3 138.9 164.5 6.3 5.3 1.1 0.9 16.7 17.3 - -
South Ind.Bank Buy 28 34 3,695 1,583 1,789 3.0 2.9 3.5 4.1 8.0 6.8 1.3 1.2 19.1 17.7 - -
St Bk of India Neutral 2,490 - 167,100 60,677 69,712 3.3 3.3 224.3 257.3 11.1 9.7 1.9 1.6 17.6 17.7 - -
Syndicate Bank Buy 135 159 8,147 6,673 7,644 2.9 3.0 30.0 27.1 4.5 5.0 0.9 0.8 20.7 16.2 - -
UCO Bank Neutral 78 - 5,155 5,235 6,086 2.3 2.4 12.0 14.9 6.5 5.2 1.0 0.9 12.0 13.5 - -
Union Bank Accumulate 249 271 13,689 9,963 11,536 2.8 2.9 40.8 46.8 6.1 5.3 1.0 0.9 16.2 16.4 - -
United Bank Buy 75 87 2,702 3,498 3,858 2.5 2.8 15.1 21.6 5.0 3.5 0.6 0.5 12.5 16.1 - -
Vijaya Bank Neutral 60 - 2,976 2,333 2,728 2.0 2.2 7.3 10.4 8.2 5.8 0.8 0.7 9.3 12.1 - -
Yes Bank Accumulate 522 576 18,675 3,364 4,260 2.8 3.0 36.3 42.6 14.4 12.3 3.2 2.6 24.6 23.6 - -
FMCG
Asian Paints Neutral 4,396 - 42,170 11,198 13,319 15.9 15.7 122.1 147.1 36.0 29.9 12.2 9.5 37.7 35.7 3.7 3.1
Britannia Buy 478 584 5,712 5,627 6,581 4.9 5.7 18.3 24.7 26.1 19.4 9.5 7.3 39.1 42.7 0.9 0.8
Colgate Neutral 1,387 - 18,862 3,146 3,573 20.6 21.4 36.4 42.5 38.1 32.6 35.3 29.5 102.0 98.5 5.8 5.1
Dabur India Neutral 131 - 22,841 6,124 7,101 17.0 16.8 4.7 5.4 28.2 24.2 11.9 9.3 44.5 41.5 3.7 3.2
GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 3,788 - 15,931 3,084 3,617 15.3 15.5 101.2 118.3 37.4 32.0 11.4 9.3 33.5 31.9 4.8 4.0
Godrej Consumer Neutral 722 - 24,568 6,355 7,548 16.7 17.4 20.3 25.4 35.6 28.4 7.5 6.2 23.2 25.1 4.1 3.4
HUL Neutral 471 - 101,720 25,350 28,974 13.3 13.5 15.1 17.0 31.2 27.8 24.8 17.7 85.7 74.3 3.8 3.3
ITC Neutral 300 - 236,777 29,148 34,191 35.7 36.1 9.4 11.1 32.1 27.1 10.7 8.8 35.9 35.7 7.8 6.6
Marico Neutral 222 - 14,293 4,840 5,643 13.6 13.6 6.4 8.1 34.5 27.3 6.8 5.5 26.3 23.3 3.0 2.5
Nestle* Neutral 4,593 - 44,285 8,487 10,081 21.2 22.1 113.0 142.5 40.7 32.2 24.4 16.8 70.5 61.6 5.3 4.3
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January 29, 2013
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7/29/2019 Market Outlook, 29th January 2013
14/18
Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E
FMCG
Tata Global Neutral 148 - 9,131 7,207 7,927 9.1 9.5 6.9 8.2 21.4 18.1 2.3 2.2 8.9 9.8 1.2 1.1
IT
HCL Tech^ Neutral 697 - 48,418 24,453 27,269 19.8 18.7 45.0 50.0 15.5 13.9 3.7 3.1 24.4 22.6 1.9 1.7
Hexaware* Buy 82 118 2,441 1,941 2,118 20.8 19.0 10.7 10.7 7.7 7.7 1.9 1.7 25.3 22.0 1.0 0.8
Infosys Neutral 2,810 - 161,363 40,746 44,283 28.9 28.8 162.6 172.9 17.3 16.3 4.1 3.5 23.5 21.3 3.4 3.0
Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 174 191 1,936 1,900 2,064 18.2 17.8 19.1 21.2 9.1 8.2 1.4 1.2 15.2 14.6 0.7 0.5
KPIT Cummins Accumulate 115 130 2,217 2,221 2,390 16.1 15.9 11.3 13.0 10.2 8.9 2.3 1.8 21.9 20.9 1.0 0.9Mahindra Satyam Neutral 124 - 14,636 7,670 8,308 20.3 19.3 9.9 10.8 12.6 11.5 3.5 2.7 28.0 23.5 1.5 1.3
Mindtree Neutral 797 - 3,297 2,339 2,502 20.9 18.4 75.4 78.1 10.6 10.2 2.6 2.1 24.6 20.3 1.2 1.0
Mphasis& Accumulate 365 396 7,679 5,531 5,874 17.6 17.5 35.4 37.7 10.3 9.7 1.5 1.3 14.7 13.5 0.9 0.7
NIIT Buy 28 36 459 1,048 1,161 9.1 10.9 4.1 6.2 6.8 4.5 0.7 0.6 10.3 14.1 0.3 0.2
Persistent Neutral 524 - 2,097 1,277 1,398 26.8 25.2 48.0 53.9 10.9 9.7 2.1 1.7 19.0 17.9 1.3 1.1
TCS Accumulate 1,344 1,465 262,982 62,954 70,871 29.0 28.9 71.6 79.1 18.8 17.0 6.2 5.0 33.2 29.7 4.0 3.5
Tech Mahindra Accumulate 1,015 1,087 12,980 6,671 7,290 19.8 19.0 94.1 106.4 10.8 9.6 2.6 2.1 24.0 21.6 2.0 1.8
Wipro Neutral 414 - 101,843 43,231 47,241 20.0 20.0 26.2 28.1 15.8 14.7 3.1 2.6 19.3 17.9 2.0 1.7
Media
D B Corp Accumulate 242 264 4,443 1,581 1,784 23.3 25.0 11.6 14.4 20.9 16.8 4.1 3.5 21.0 22.3 2.7 2.4
HT Media Buy 105 121 2,456 2,111 2,272 15.0 15.2 7.4 8.3 14.2 12.7 1.5 1.4 11.3 11.4 0.8 0.7
Jagran Prakashan Buy 108 126 3,416 1,503 1,681 23.1 23.1 6.4 7.3 16.9 14.9 4.2 3.7 25.8 26.5 2.5 2.1
PVR Neutral 270 - 782 682 786 17.3 16.9 17.6 19.7 15.3 13.7 1.8 1.6 14.9 14.5 1.5 1.3
Sun TV Network Neutral 456 - 17,972 1,942 2,237 77.2 75.5 17.6 19.1 25.9 23.9 6.3 5.6 25.8 25.2 8.8 7.6
Metals & Mining
Bhushan Steel Neutral 443 - 10,043 10,746 13,982 30.8 31.1 43.3 55.5 10.2 8.0 1.1 1.0 11.4 12.6 3.0 2.3Coal India Accumulate 342 368 216,051 66,666 70,292 25.7 27.3 24.2 26.6 14.2 12.9 4.2 3.4 33.1 29.1 2.3 2.0
Electrosteel Castings Buy 26 34 882 1,984 2,074 10.6 11.6 1.8 2.6 14.5 9.8 0.5 0.2 3.6 5.1 0.6 0.6
Hind. Zinc Buy 128 149 53,873 12,002 13,759 49.7 50.8 14.7 16.4 8.7 7.8 1.7 1.4 21.1 19.8 2.6 1.9
Hindalco Neutral 118 - 22,669 79,148 89,258 9.4 9.0 15.0 15.6 7.9 7.6 0.7 0.6 8.8 8.4 0.7 0.6
JSW Steel Neutral 870 - 19,409 39,586 41,459 17.6 17.0 78.7 90.1 11.1 9.7 1.1 1.0 10.2 10.7 0.9 0.9
MOIL Neutral 257 - 4,310 941 1,019 47.3 48.3 25.8 28.1 9.9 9.1 1.6 1.4 16.7 16.2 2.2 1.9
Monnet Ispat Buy 267 344 1,703 2,501 3,264 22.2 24.6 41.8 55.2 6.4 4.8 0.7 0.6 11.3 13.4 1.8 1.3
Nalco Reduce 47 44 12,139 6,898 7,841 9.9 14.7 2.0 3.2 23.8 14.8 1.0 1.0 4.3 6.8 1.3 1.2
NMDC Buy 159 198 62,980 11,209 12,525 78.4 78.3 18.5 20.6 8.6 7.7 2.1 1.7 27.0 24.6 3.7 3.1
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January 29, 2013
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7/29/2019 Market Outlook, 29th January 2013
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E
Metals & Mining
SAIL Neutral 90 - 37,113 47,252 60,351 14.2 14.8 9.6 11.7 9.4 7.7 0.9 0.8 9.4 10.6 1.2 1.0
Sesa Goa Neutral 183 - 15,918 2,412 3,911 30.8 33.1 29.6 31.8 6.2 5.8 1.0 0.8 16.3 15.4 8.1 5.0
Sterlite Inds Neutral 114 - 38,328 43,185 45,442 23.3 23.7 16.8 17.9 6.8 6.4 0.8 0.7 11.6 11.2 0.9 0.8
Tata Steel Accumulate 406 463 39,407 145,725 154,108 8.3 9.5 22.0 44.5 18.4 9.1 0.9 0.8 4.9 9.3 0.6 0.5
Sarda Buy 131 153 468 1,442 1,494 17.6 17.3 27.2 28.7 4.8 4.6 0.5 0.5 11.5 11.0 0.7 0.6
Prakash Industries Buy 47 73 634 2,694 2,906 14.6 16.6 16.4 20.8 2.9 2.3 0.3 0.3 11.4 12.8 0.5 0.3
Godawari Power andIspat Buy 112 143 355 2,342 2,470 13.7 15.3 27.7 33.8 4.0 3.3 0.4 0.3 10.9 11.4 0.6 0.5
Oil & Gas
Cairn India Buy 328 383 62,676 17,394 17,034 76.4 72.3 60.8 55.1 5.4 6.0 1.1 1.0 21.9 17.0 2.8 2.4
GAIL Neutral 358 - 45,386 46,652 54,142 15.7 15.7 34.0 35.3 10.5 10.2 1.8 1.6 18.5 16.8 0.7 0.6
ONGC Reduce 335 312 286,609 147,139 154,821 33.9 33.7 30.7 32.3 10.9 10.4 1.9 1.7 18.3 17.2 1.7 1.5
Reliance Industries Neutral 898 - 293,940 362,700 380,031 8.9 8.9 68.1 71.5 13.2 12.6 1.4 1.3 12.4 11.8 0.8 0.7
Gujarat Gas* Neutral 311 - 3,982 3,128 3,707 13.2 11.7 22.8 23.5 13.6 13.2 4.1 3.6 33.2 29.2 1.2 0.9
Indraprastha Gas Neutral 260 - 3,641 3,213 3,643 23.3 23.5 24.3 25.7 10.7 10.1 2.4 2.1 25.0 22.1 1.2 1.1
Petronet LNG Buy 155 179 11,655 32,210 41,362 6.1 5.8 15.4 15.6 10.1 10.0 2.7 2.2 29.1 24.1 0.4 0.3
Gujarat State PetronetLtd.
Neutral 74 - 4,170 1,079 1,034 91.8 91.9 8.8 8.4 8.5 8.8 1.4 1.3 17.9 15.0 3.6 3.7
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma Buy 75 95 1,413 1,490 1,714 16.2 17.1 7.4 9.5 10.1 7.9 2.8 2.1 30.7 30.2 1.1 0.9
Aurobindo Pharma Accumulate 190 208 5,536 5,463 6,279 15.0 15.0 12.4 14.0 15.3 13.6 2.0 1.7 18.8 17.8 1.6 1.4
Aventis* Neutral 2,279 - 5,249 1,482 1,682 17.5 16.6 82.9 87.8 27.5 26.0 4.3 3.5 16.3 14.8 3.4 2.9
Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 858 926 17,571 6,148 7,386 18.6 19.6 32.7 44.8 26.2 19.2 5.8 4.6 23.7 26.6 3.2 2.6
Cipla Neutral 400 - 32,077 8,151 9,130 25.8 24.8 20.2 21.6 19.8 18.5 3.5 3.0 19.4 17.6 3.7 3.2
Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,942 - 32,968 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 23.2 20.9 4.8 4.0 22.4 20.8 3.4 3.0
Dishman Pharma Buy 106 145 852 1,280 1,536 20.2 20.2 10.4 14.5 10.2 7.3 0.9 0.8 8.7 11.0 1.3 1.1
GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,034 - 17,230 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 26.8 24.7 7.7 6.9 20.1 26.3 5.7 4.9
Indoco Remedies Buy 62 89 570 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 8.4 7.0 1.3 1.1 16.4 17.0 1.0 0.8
Ipca labs Neutral 493 - 6,221 2,850 3,474 21.0 21.0 29.9 37.3 16.5 13.2 4.0 3.1 26.7 26.4 2.4 2.0
Lupin Accumulate 595 655 26,629 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 26.1 31.1 22.8 19.1 5.3 4.3 25.8 24.7 3.3 2.7
Ranbaxy* Neutral 462 - 19,560 12,046 11,980 16.0 15.8 37.3 32.1 12.4 14.4 4.8 3.9 45.3 29.7 1.6 1.6
Sun Pharma Neutral 721 - 74,545 9,902 12,313 42.6 42.6 26.7 29.1 27.0 24.8 5.2 4.4 20.7 19.1 6.9 5.4
Power
GIPCL Accumulate 70 78 1,060 1,523 1,568 30.3 30.3 5.4 11.5 13.0 6.1 0.7 0.7 5.6 11.3 1.2 1.0
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January 29, 2013
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E
Power
NTPC Neutral 158 - 130,072 72,809 81,951 23.0 23.7 12.0 13.4 13.2 11.8 1.6 1.5 12.5 12.9 2.4 2.3
Real Estate
Anant Raj Neutral 85 - 2,520 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 10.2 6.7 0.6 0.6 6.3 8.9 5.1 3.8
DLF Neutral 267 - 45,346 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 27.9 19.9 1.8 1.7 6.4 8.7 7.1 5.8
HDIL Buy 84 115 3,507 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 3.7 3.1 0.3 0.3 8.8 9.4 3.3 2.5
MLIFE Accumulate 403 446 1,646 786 888 26.3 26.7 31.0 36.3 13.0 11.1 1.3 1.2 10.1 10.8 2.4 2.1
TelecomBharti Airtel Neutral 358 - 135,800 80,353 86,654 30.9 31.3 8.6 11.8 41.8 30.3 2.5 2.4 6.1 7.8 2.5 2.2
Idea Cellular Neutral 113 - 37,358 21,797 23,142 26.9 27.7 3.1 4.7 35.9 24.2 2.6 2.4 7.4 9.8 2.2 2.0
Rcom Neutral 84 - 17,400 21,032 22,084 31.8 30.2 2.9 4.0 28.8 21.1 0.5 0.5 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.3
zOthers
Abbott India Accumulate 1,441 1,590 3,062 1,629 1,886 11.8 13.3 60.8 79.5 23.7 18.1 4.9 4.1 22.0 24.4 1.7 1.4
Bajaj Electricals Buy 186 217 1,859 3,497 3,968 6.6 7.6 9.8 15.5 19.0 12.0 2.4 2.1 12.7 17.4 0.5 0.5
Cera Sanitaryware Buy 411 495 520 460 596 16.4 16.2 34.7 45.0 11.8 9.1 2.9 2.3 27.7 27.8 1.2 1.0
Cravatex Buy 406 545 105 272 308 7.2 7.3 37.5 45.4 10.8 8.9 2.6 2.0 23.7 22.7 0.5 0.4
CRISIL Neutral 1,007 - 7,069 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 29.3 25.2 13.3 10.6 50.9 46.9 6.8 5.7
Finolex Cables Accumulate 56 61 851 2,304 2,552 9.9 9.1 8.2 10.1 6.8 5.5 0.9 0.8 13.7 14.7 0.3 0.3
Force Motors Buy 447 550 583 2,027 2,299 4.6 5.1 35.3 50.0 12.7 8.9 0.5 0.5 3.9 5.3 0.1 0.1
Goodyear India Accumulate 318 360 732 1,494 1,607 6.4 7.8 23.9 33.0 13.3 9.6 2.1 1.8 16.5 20.1 0.3 0.2
Greenply Industries Sell 428 309 1,033 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 14.5 9.7 2.4 1.9 16.8 21.0 0.8 0.7
Hitachi Neutral 147 - 338 873 989 4.4 6.5 6.4 12.2 23.2 12.1 1.9 1.6 8.3 14.4 0.5 0.4
Honeywell Automation* Accumulate 2,568 2,842 2,271 1,809 2,117 5.5 7.5 84.9 135.3 30.3 19.0 3.3 2.8 11.3 16.0 1.1 1.0
Styrolution ABS India* Accumulate 682 744 1,200 1,059 1,116 8.5 9.5 36.0 42.0 19.0 16.3 2.8 2.4 15.4 16.0 1.2 1.1ITD Cementation Buy 238 334 274 1,455 1,630 12.4 12.6 29.8 40.5 8.0 5.9 0.6 0.6 8.2 9.8 0.6 0.6
Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 150 - 2,416 1,228 1,443 9.0 10.9 3.9 6.4 38.5 23.5 3.8 3.5 10.1 15.6 2.5 2.1
MCX Neutral 1,412 - 7,199 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 22.6 19.6 6.2 5.4 27.5 27.4 10.0 8.4
MRF Neutral 13,263 - 5,625 13,030 14,405 10.3 10.6 1,418.1 1,677.1 9.4 7.9 1.6 1.4 19.1 18.7 0.5 0.5
Page Industries Accumulate 3,403 3,602 3,796 836 1,023 20.2 20.6 105.6 133.4 32.2 25.5 16.4 11.6 59.3 53.2 4.6 3.7
Relaxo Footwears Accumulate 817 933 980 1,019 1,208 11.0 12.5 47.0 66.7 17.4 12.3 4.3 3.2 28.2 30.1 1.1 0.9
Sintex Industries Buy 63 79 1,971 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.6 4.0 0.6 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.8 0.6
Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 289 366 271 1,043 1,149 12.3 12.9 65.7 73.3 4.4 3.9 0.9 0.7 21.0 19.6 0.5 0.5
S. Kumars Nationwide Neutral 12 - 370 6,765 7,393 18.1 18.0 6.4 7.5 1.9 1.7 0.1 0.1 6.1 6.7 0.6 0.6
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January 29, 2013
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E
zOthers
SpiceJet Reduce 47 43 2,274 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 13.0 8.8 18.8 6.0 - - 0.5 0.4
TAJ GVK Buy 68 108 424 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 8.6 7.4 1.1 1.0 13.9 14.4 1.7 1.5
Tata Sponge Iron Buy 310 384 477 750 803 18.6 18.4 65.4 69.1 4.7 4.5 0.7 0.7 16.5 15.3 0.3 0.2
TTK Healthcare Buy 517 643 402 374 425 7.9 9.5 24.1 32.7 21.5 15.8 19.7 22.5 0.9 0.8
TVS Srichakra Buy 260 322 199 1,461 1,625 6.9 8.2 24.6 53.7 10.6 4.8 1.3 1.1 12.9 24.9 0.4 0.3
United Spirits Neutral 1,841 - 24,083 10,289 11,421 12.8 12.8 26.0 45.3 70.8 40.7 3.2 3.0 5.8 7.6 2.7 2.4
Vesuvius India Neutral 334 - 678 560 611 16.1 17.0 24.7 28.8 13.5 11.6 2.0 1.8 15.8 16.2 1.1 1.0Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on January 28, 2013
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Market OutlookJanuary 29, 2013