Market Outlook 210512

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 210512

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2/15

Market OutlookMay 21, 2012

www.angelbroking.com

Result Reviews

Coal India (CMP:`303/ TP: - / Upside: -)

Coal India reported standalone results for 4QFY2012. The companys net sales

were down 2% yoy to `154cr. During 4QFY2012, the companys other income

increased by 16.8% yoy to`1,538cr and net profit declined by 11.7% to`1,223cr.

Coal India will report its consolidated results on May 28, 2012.

FY2013E 50,234 28.0 10,867 17.2 36.7 18.0 5.9 10.7 3.0

FY2014E 60,669 28.8 14,746 23.3 37.9 13.3 4.4 8.1 2.3

State Bank of India (CMP:`

1,942/ TP:

`2,511 / Upside: 29.3%)

State Bank of India reported its 4QFY2012results. The bank reported 45.2% yoy

growth in its NII to `11,704cr, in-line with our expectations, aided by NIM

expansion of 82bp yoy to 3.89%. Non-interest income increased by 33.0% on a

yoy basis to`5,264cr, mainly aided by higher fee income and increased dividend

income. The banks operating expenses increased by much lower 8.5% yoy (16.4%

qoq) to `7,371cr. Provisioning expenses decreased by 24.5% yoy (4.2% qoq) to

`3,140cr. Consequently, the bank reported net profit of`4,050cr in 4QFY2012 as

against `21cr in 4QFY2011. The banks asset quality improved on a sequential

basis, with gross and net NPA ratio declining by 17bp and 40bp qoq, respectively,

and PCR improving by 558bp qoq to 68.1%.

FY2013E 69,568 3.7 14,825 220.9 1,329 1.0 18.9 8.5 1.4

FY2014E 81,445 3.7 18,104 269.8 1,608 1.0 19.1 7.0 1.2

Estimates are subject to change

Tata Steel (CMP:`400/ TP: Under review)

Tata Steel reported a disappointing set of numbers for 4QFY2012 on account of

subdued performance from its European operations. Consolidated net sales

growth stood flat yoy at `33,999cr (in-line with our estimate of `33,437cr).

Standalone net sales increased by 13.8% yoy to `9,375cr. Consolidated sales

volumes stood at 6.22mn tonnes in 4QFY2012 compared to 6.65mn tonnes in

4QFY2011. Average realization/tonne increased by 9.7% and 7.3% to US$1,052

and US$1,103 in Tata Steel India and Tata Steel Europe operations, respectively.

Although realization increased yoy, higher costs resulted in a decline in EBITDA.

EBITDA/tonne decreased by 6.7% to US$330 in Tata Steel India. EBITDA/tonne of

Tata Steel Europe stood at US$8 in 4QFY2012 compared to US$75 in 4QFY2011

on account of higher raw-material costs. India operations EBITDA decreased by3.3% yoy to `2,976cr. European operations reported EBITDA of US$29mn and

South East Asian operations reported EBITDA of US$21mn during the quarter.

Consequently, consolidated EBITDA decreased by 28.5% yoy to `3,419cr. Hence,


3/15



Tata Steel reported net profit of `433cr in 4QFY2012 compared to profit of

`4,176cr in 4QFY2011. The companys net debt increased to US$9.4bn as on

March 31, 2012, compared to US$9.2bn as on December 31, 2011. Tata Steels

2.9mn tonnes brownfield expansion project in Jamshedpur was completed during

4QFY2012.

FY2013E 153,733 10.7 6,365 50.6 13.0 8.0 1.0 5.7 0.6

FY2014E 148,011 13.0 7,949 63.2 14.5 8.0 0.9 4.7 0.6

HT Media (CMP:`115/ TP: under review)

For 4QFY2012, HT Media consolidated net revenues grew by moderate 5.8% yoy

to`494cr. Top-line growth was driven by growth in advertisement revenues. The

companys EBITDA margin contracted by ~956bp yoy to 9.8% due to significant

increase in other expenses and newsprint costs on a yoy basis. Consequently, Net

profit declined by 53% to`23cr. Currently, the stock is trading at FY2014E price to

earnings multiple of 11.5x.

FY2013E 2,254 17.8 234 10 14.7 11.5 1.6 5.0 0.9

FY2014E 2,555 18.3 283 12 15.4 13.9 1.4 4.0 0.8

Ashoka Buildcon (CMP:`193 / TP:`302 / Upside: 56%)

For 4QFY2012, Ashoka Buildcon (ABL) reported a good set of numbers, in-line

with our estimates. ABLs top line witnessed decent growth of 16.9% (excluding

`200cr revenue in 4QFY2011 owing to change in accounting policy) to `468cr,

marginally lower than our estimate of `495cr. On the EBITDAM front, ABLs

margin came in at 20.0%, 30bp lower than our estimate of 20.3%. At the earnings

front, ABL reported decent growth of 21.9% to `47cr (excluding exceptional

income of `107cr in 4QFY2011), which was higher than our estimate of `34crowing to lower depreciation. During the quarter, ABL changed its deprecation

policy, resulting in lower depreciation for the quarter. Order book as of

4QFY2012 stood at`4,967cr.

FY2013E 2,014 22.4 149 28.4 14.1 14.1 0.9 10.3 2.3

FY2014E 2,294 22.4 162 30.8 13.3 13.3 0.8 11.6 2.6


4/15



Force Motors reported its 4QFY2012 results. The company's top line grew by 17%

qoq and came in at `611cr, better than our estimate of `522cr. Although

employee cost reduced by 10% qoq, owing to a substantial 14% increase in raw-

material cost and 110% growth in other expenses, EBITDA declined by 3% to

`27cr, marginally lower than our estimate of`28cr. Other income for the quarter

came in at`960.1cr, which was due to stake sale in 50:50 JV with Man Industries.

Adjusted PAT came in`14cr post adjusting the tax on stale sale income. Annual

top line grew by 37% yoy and came in at `2,085cr, while EBITDA came in at

`122cr, 22% higher than the previous year. Post adjusting the other income for the

latest quarter, the company reported Net profit of`36cr for the year.

FY2013E 2,346 6.7 67 51 5.4 10.6 0.6 3.0 0.2FY2014E 2,753 7.0 81 62 6.2 8.7 0.5 3.3 0.2

Result Previews

Nalco

Nalco is slated to report its 4QFY2012 results. We expect the companys net sales

to decrease by 11.2% yoy to `2,524cr mainly due to a decline in aluminium

prices. EBITDA margin is expected to contract by 1,558bp yoy to 9.8% due tolower realizations and rise in prices of key inputs (primarily coal). Hence, net profit

is expected to decrease by 62.5% yoy to `115cr.


5/15



Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Net sales 753 798 (6) 755 (0)

EBITDA 177 227 (22) 216 (18)EBITDA margin (%) 23.5 28.4 28.6

Net profit 126 188 (33) 139 (9)

Net profit 785 607 29 1,108 (29)

Net sales 6,153 4,986 23 6,646 (7)

EBITDA 1,515 1,287 18 1,003 51

EBITDA margin (%) 24.6 25.8 15.1

Net profit 605 627 (4) 263 130

Net sales 1,687 1,567 8 1,793 (6)

EBITDA 180 158 14 181 (1)

EBITDA margin (%) 10.7 10.1 10.1

Net profit 70 85 (17) 64 10

Net profit 759 700 8 770 (1)


6/15



Economic and Political News

CCI clears state oil firms of cartelisation charges Government to invest`73,000cr in ports Retail inflation jumps to 10.32% in April on dearer vegetables Retrospective amendment to I-T Act may impact FDI in IndiaCorporate News

Coal India board decides to exit ICVL consortium Kingfisher Airlines owes`269cr income tax: Government MMTC inks supply pacts with Japanese, South Korean steel companys Odisha plant to be ready by early FY14, says Tata SteelSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint


7/15

Date Company

May 21, 2012 Adani Enterp., Nalco, Zee Entertainment, Tata Comm

May 22, 2012 Tata Power Co., Power Fin.Corpn., Godawari Ispat

May 23, 2012 Rural Elec.Corp., Tech Mahindra, Tata Global, LMW, Jyothy Laboratories

May 24, 2012 Reliance Power, GSPL, TVS Motor, Madras Cements, Hitachi

May 25, 2012 ITC, NHPC, BPCL, Reliance Infra., Sun TV Network, Crompton Greaves, Suzlon Energy, MOIL, Jyoti Structures

May 26, 2012 Rcom, Jagran Prakashan, Sarda Energy, TVS Srichakra

May 27, 2012 -

May 28, 2012Coal India, NMDC, IOC, Motherson Sumi, Bharat Forge, Britannia, Bajaj Electrical, Amara Raja Batteries, IndocoRemedies, Subros

May 29, 2012ONGC, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Power Grid Corpn, SAIL, HPCL, GMR Infra., Aurobindo Pharma, Ipca labs,Nagarjuna Const., Prakash Industries, PVR

May 30, 2012 GAIL, M&M, Colgate, Tata Chemicals, Page Industries, BGR Energy , PTC India, Anant Raj, GIPCL

May 31, 2012 -

June 01, 2012 Mphasis

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

May 22, 2012 Euro ZoneEuro-Zone ConsumerConfidence

Value Apr-12 (19.90) (20.50)

UK CPI (YoY) % Change Mar-12 3.50 3.10

US Existing home sales Millions Mar-12 4.48 4.62

May 23, 2012 US New home sales Thousands Mar-12 328.00 335.00

May 24, 2012 US Initial Jobless claims Thousands 12-May-12 370.00 370.00

Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change Mar-12 1.70 1.70

Germany PMI Services Value Apr-12 52.20 52.00

Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Apr-12 46.20 47.00

UK GDP (YoY) % Change Mar-12 -- --

May 29, 2012 US Consumer ConfidenceS.A./

1985=100Apr-12 69.20 70.00

May 31, 2012 Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Apr-12 19.00 --

US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change Mar-12 2.20 1.80

India Qtrly GDP YoY% % Change - 6.10 --

June 01, 2012 US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Apr-12 115.00 155.00

US Unnemployment rate % Apr-12 8.10 8.10

China PMI Manufacturing Value Apr-12 53.30 --

India Imports YoY% % Change Mar-12 24.28 --

India Exports YoY% % Change Mar-12 (5.71) --

UK PMI Manufacturing Value Apr-12 50.50 --

June 06, 2012 Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change Mar-12 -- --

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % May-12 1.00 --

June 07, 2012 UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio May-12 0.50 0.50

June 09, 2012 China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Apr-12 9.30 --

China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Apr-12 3.40 --

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research


May 21, 2012

Market Outlook


8/15

Market StrategyMay 21, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit1:QuarterlyGDPtrends

5.8 5.9

7.5

9.8

7.4

9.4

8.5

7.6

8.3

7.8 7.7

6.9

6.1

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

3QFY09

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

(%)

Source:

CSO,

Angel

Research

Exhibit2:IIPtrends

5.36.2

9.5

3.7 3.42.5

(5.0)

6.0

2.7

1.1

4.1

(3.5)(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Apr-

11

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

(%)

Source:

MOSPI,

Angel

Research

Exhibit3:MonthlyWPIinflationtrends

9.6 9.5 9.4 9.810.0 9.9 9.5

7.76.9

7.46.9 7.2

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

(%)

Source:MOSPI,AngelResearch

Exhibit4:ManufacturingandservicesPMI

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

Apr-

11

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

Source:Market,AngelResearch;Note:Levelabove50indicatesexpansion

Exhibit5:Exportsandimportsgrowthtrends

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

Apr-

11

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

Source:Bloomberg,AngelResearch

Exhibit6:Keypolicyrates8.00

7.00

4.75

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Apr-

11

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

Source:RBI,AngelResearch


9/15

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 124 - 2,407 1,432 1,647 14.7 14.7 7.0 8.0 17.7 15.5 3.7 3.2 22.8 22.3 1.7 1.4

United Phosphorus Buy 118 183 5,446 8,191 8,764 16.5 16.5 17.1 18.3 6.9 6.5 1.1 1.0 17.5 16.2 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Buy 275 345 2,346 2,691 3,032 15.6 15.5 29.4 32.8 9.3 8.4 2.2 1.8 26.5 23.6 0.8 0.7

Apollo Tyres Buy 85 100 4,264 13,699 15,184 10.5 10.2 12.1 13.3 7.0 6.4 1.3 1.1 19.7 18.4 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 25 33 6,665 14,798 16,687 9.6 9.6 2.4 3.0 10.3 8.4 2.1 1.8 14.8 16.5 0.5 0.4

Automotive Axle Accumulate 486 514 734 1,211 1,387 12.1 11.7 50.3 57.1 9.7 8.5 2.4 2.0 27.8 25.7 0.7 0.5Bajaj Auto Buy 1,533 1,835 44,359 22,118 24,889 19.0 18.6 115.7 126.5 13.3 12.1 5.3 4.2 45.0 38.9 1.6 1.3

Bharat Forge Buy 310 372 7,227 7,173 7,998 16.3 16.5 22.3 26.6 13.9 11.7 2.7 2.3 21.0 21.0 1.1 0.9

Bosch India Accumulate 8,936 9,429 28,059 9,390 10,716 19.5 19.1 420.2 471.4 21.3 19.0 4.9 4.1 23.3 21.8 2.7 2.3

CEAT Buy 94 164 320 5,067 5,631 8.0 7.6 39.4 41.0 2.4 2.3 0.4 0.4 18.8 16.5 0.3 0.3

Exide Industries Buy 119 146 10,077 5,787 6,595 15.5 17.0 7.1 9.0 16.7 13.2 2.9 2.5 18.6 20.3 1.4 1.2

FAG Bearings Accumulate 1,515 1,594 2,518 1,531 1,748 18.8 18.5 118.0 132.8 12.9 11.4 2.8 2.3 24.0 21.9 1.4 1.1

Hero Motocorp Buy 1,871 2,280 37,354 26,106 29,296 15.0 15.2 140.3 148.1 13.3 12.6 6.3 4.8 54.8 43.3 1.1 0.9

JK Tyre Buy 78 113 320 8,058 9,025 5.4 5.5 24.8 32.2 3.1 2.4 0.3 0.3 11.4 13.2 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 644 793 39,537 34,740 39,263 10.7 11.0 44.9 51.7 14.4 12.5 2.6 2.2 18.9 19.1 0.8 0.7

Maruti Buy 1,165 1,510 33,661 42,683 48,736 7.1 7.5 86.6 100.6 13.5 11.6 1.9 1.7 15.3 15.5 0.6 0.5

Motherson Sumi Buy 165 216 6,388 11,167 12,516 9.5 10.0 11.3 14.4 14.6 11.5 3.2 2.6 23.3 24.7 0.7 0.6

Subros Neutral 29 - 176 1,225 1,393 8.5 8.2 4.2 5.0 7.0 5.9 0.7 0.7 10.3 11.8 0.4 0.3

Tata Motors Buy 260 312 70,007 191,183 210,301 12.8 12.8 39.4 43.6 6.6 6.0 2.3 1.8 40.4 34.3 0.5 0.4

TVS Motor Buy 33 55 1,565 7,982 8,816 6.4 6.3 5.0 5.6 6.6 5.9 1.2 1.0 18.9 18.2 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 712 498 15,084 8,760 10,023 6.4 6.4 18.2 20.7 39.1 34.3 5.3 4.7 14.4 14.6 1.7 1.5BGR Energy Neutral 283 - 2,044 4,170 5,396 11.5 10.4 27.2 30.4 10.4 9.3 1.7 1.5 17.3 17.4 1.1 1.0

BHEL Neutral 201 - 49,295 46,344 46,916 18.3 18.6 23.5 24.1 8.6 8.4 1.7 1.5 21.3 18.9 0.9 0.9

Blue Star Buy 173 221 1,556 3,250 3,551 5.9 5.9 12.4 15.8 13.9 11.0 2.8 2.4 21.2 23.8 0.6 0.4

Crompton Greaves Buy 115 164 7,396 12,936 14,101 9.6 10.0 10.9 11.7 10.6 9.8 1.8 1.6 18.4 17.3 0.6 0.5

Jyoti Structures Buy 38 67 312 2,622 2,801 10.6 11.0 10.9 13.4 3.5 2.8 0.4 0.4 12.7 13.9 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 51 73 1,314 6,686 7,200 7.7 7.9 10.6 12.2 4.8 4.2 0.9 0.8 25.9 24.0 0.3 0.3

LMW Buy 1,519 2,609 1,711 2,663 3,130 12.8 12.8 185.0 217.4 8.2 7.0 1.6 1.4 21.2 21.7 0.2 0.1

Thermax Neutral 424 - 5,053 5,514 5,559 8.3 8.0 29.7 28.4 14.3 15.0 2.7 2.4 20.2 16.9 0.8 0.7


May 21, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


10/15



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,160 - 21,776 11,018 12,663 19.9 21.2 70.7 81.2 16.4 14.3 2.9 2.6 18.0 19.0 1.7 1.4

Ambuja Cements Neutral 144 - 22,152 10,035 11,504 23.5 23.8 10.1 10.6 14.3 13.7 2.8 2.5 18.5 19.4 1.8 1.5

India Cements Neutral 77 - 2,361 4,423 4,906 18.2 18.8 9.9 12.7 7.8 6.1 0.7 0.6 8.6 10.5 0.8 0.7

J K Lakshmi Cements Buy 64 79 777 1,880 2,201 19.0 22.6 12.2 16.4 5.2 3.9 0.6 0.5 11.9 14.3 0.6 0.9

Madras Cements Neutral 139 - 3,308 3,434 3,777 25.5 26.1 14.1 18.1 9.9 7.7 1.4 1.2 15.2 16.9 1.6 1.3

Shree Cements Neutral 2,557 - 8,908 5,552 6,193 25.7 26.0 130.3 182.0 19.6 14.1 4.1 3.5 19.1 22.3 1.3 1.0

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,407 - 38,555 20,116 22,655 21.3 22.5 82.1 97.5 17.1 14.4 2.7 2.3 16.8 17.4 1.8 1.8Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 193 302 1,018 2,014 2,294 22.4 22.4 28.4 30.8 6.8 6.3 0.9 0.8 14.1 13.3 2.3 2.6

Consolidated Co Neutral 14 - 267 2,526 2,792 5.7 6.6 1.8 2.8 7.9 5.1 0.4 0.4 5.6 8.2 0.3 0.3

Hind. Const. Neutral 18 - 1,113 4,239 4,522 11.1 11.8 (1.8) (0.8) (10.2) (23.5) 1.1 1.2 (9.5) (4.7) 1.3 1.2

IRB Infra Buy 113 166 3,757 3,821 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.0 16.9 7.5 6.7 1.1 1.0 16.1 15.8 2.6 2.4

ITNL Buy 161 265 3,136 6,619 7,925 23.8 23.3 22.0 26.7 7.3 6.1 1.0 0.9 14.9 15.9 2.2 2.1

IVRCL Infra Buy 45 79 1,195 5,758 6,860 9.2 9.2 4.7 6.0 9.6 7.4 0.6 0.5 6.0 7.3 0.7 0.6

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 62 104 13,184 16,017 18,359 24.4 23.5 4.2 5.0 14.8 12.4 1.3 1.2 8.8 9.7 2.1 1.9

Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,162 1,553 71,139 59,559 69,089 12.1 11.5 70.8 76.5 16.4 15.2 2.5 2.2 16.1 15.3 1.3 1.2

Madhucon Proj Buy 45 70 332 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 9.7 9.6 0.5 0.5 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

Nagarjuna Const. Buy 32 76 819 5,790 7,022 9.2 9.5 3.5 5.4 9.2 5.9 0.3 0.3 3.7 5.6 0.8 0.7

Patel Engg. Neutral 85 - 590 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 6.0 5.8 0.4 0.4 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.1

Punj Lloyd Neutral 45 - 1,509 10,592 12,193 8.4 8.4 2.9 4.6 15.7 10.0 0.5 0.5 3.9 3.1 0.6 0.6

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 130 199 1,953 2,989 3,315 10.6 10.6 10.2 11.3 12.8 11.5 2.0 1.7 17.6 16.3 0.8 0.8

Simplex Infra Buy 205 316 1,014 6,732 7,902 9.3 9.6 27.2 35.1 7.5 5.8 0.8 0.7 11.0 12.6 0.5 0.4

FinancialsAllahabad Bank Accumulate 145 166 7,233 7,392 8,542 3.1 3.1 38.3 42.1 3.8 3.4 0.7 0.6 18.4 17.6 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 106 - 5,926 5,151 5,843 3.2 3.1 22.4 25.7 4.7 4.1 0.7 0.6 15.8 16.0 - -

Axis Bank Buy 949 1,587 39,263 16,157 19,557 3.2 3.2 116.4 139.1 8.2 6.8 1.5 1.3 20.0 20.3 - -

Bank of Baroda Buy 641 925 25,080 15,993 18,918 2.6 2.6 127.3 149.9 5.0 4.3 0.8 0.7 17.8 18.2 - -

Bank of India Buy 316 411 18,123 13,558 15,551 2.5 2.4 61.6 70.8 5.1 4.5 0.9 0.7 16.8 16.9 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Buy 48 55 2,812 3,580 4,050 3.2 3.2 11.5 13.1 4.1 3.6 0.7 0.6 17.4 17.2 - -

Canara Bank Buy 398 522 17,627 12,061 13,906 2.3 2.3 83.1 92.7 4.8 4.3 0.8 0.7 16.7 16.4 - -

Central Bank Neutral 75 - 5,510 6,838 7,912 2.3 2.4 13.8 20.3 5.4 3.7 0.8 0.7 10.9 14.4 - -


May 21, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


11/15



Financials

Corporation Bank Buy 404 486 5,977 5,203 5,880 2.2 2.1 107.5 112.7 3.8 3.6 0.6 0.6 17.9 16.5 - -

Dena Bank Buy 84 111 2,953 3,149 3,522 2.8 2.8 23.3 26.1 3.6 3.2 0.6 0.5 17.7 17.0 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 404 - 6,903 2,743 3,131 3.4 3.3 49.7 57.4 8.1 7.0 1.1 1.0 14.1 14.6 - -

HDFC Accumulate 635 670 93,783 7,393 8,844 3.5 3.4 31.7 37.9 20.0 16.7 4.0 3.6 34.7 31.9 - -

HDFC Bank Accumulate 500 567 117,514 21,831 27,477 4.3 4.3 28.3 35.5 17.7 14.1 3.4 2.9 20.8 22.1 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 805 1,201 92,524 22,209 26,512 2.8 2.8 67.9 81.1 11.9 9.9 1.4 1.3 14.7 16.0 - -

IDBI Bank Buy 88 117 11,275 8,004 9,589 1.9 2.0 19.9 23.9 4.4 3.7 0.6 0.5 13.8 14.9 - -Indian Bank Accumulate 180 197 7,742 6,312 7,119 3.4 3.3 41.1 43.7 4.4 4.1 0.8 0.7 18.2 16.9 - -

IOB Buy 80 96 6,336 7,354 8,283 2.5 2.4 16.3 21.7 4.9 3.7 0.6 0.5 11.5 13.9 - -

J & K Bank Accumulate 857 960 4,152 2,420 2,792 3.5 3.6 178.0 195.8 4.8 4.4 0.9 0.8 19.5 18.6 - -

LIC Housing Finance Buy 242 286 12,210 2,108 2,607 2.6 2.6 24.5 30.6 9.9 7.9 1.8 1.6 20.1 21.4 - -

Oriental Bank Buy 216 274 6,305 6,431 7,315 2.7 2.6 54.4 63.8 4.0 3.4 0.6 0.5 13.6 14.3 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 721 1,066 24,468 19,893 23,653 3.1 3.2 153.4 175.2 4.7 4.1 0.8 0.7 18.3 18.1 - -

South Ind.Bank Neutral 22 - 2,491 1,399 1,596 2.6 2.5 3.5 3.8 6.3 5.8 1.1 1.0 18.7 17.5 - -

St Bk of India Buy 1,942 2,511 130,317 69,568 81,445 3.7 3.7 220.9 269.8 8.8 7.2 1.5 1.2 18.9 19.1 - -

Syndicate Bank Buy 89 131 5,336 7,133 8,255 3.0 3.0 25.9 30.0 3.4 3.0 0.5 0.5 16.9 17.1 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 67 - 4,437 5,623 6,380 2.4 2.4 16.9 17.9 4.0 3.7 0.7 0.7 16.5 15.4 - -

Union Bank Buy 197 276 10,332 10,215 11,854 2.9 2.8 42.7 50.3 4.6 3.9 0.8 0.6 17.0 17.5 - -

United Bank Buy 57 78 2,040 3,551 4,128 2.7 2.8 18.8 22.6 3.0 2.5 0.5 0.4 15.5 16.5 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 53 - 2,621 2,668 3,001 2.2 2.2 10.6 12.2 5.0 4.3 0.7 0.6 13.3 13.8 - -

Yes Bank Buy 312 470 11,030 3,209 4,144 2.7 2.8 33.9 41.5 9.2 7.5 1.9 1.6 23.1 23.3 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 3,708 - 35,571 11,423 13,309 16.3 16.3 125.3 148.4 29.6 25.0 10.1 7.9 38.0 35.4 3.0 2.6Britannia Buy 524 650 6,264 5,906 6,856 6.9 7.0 22.3 28.3 23.5 18.6 9.6 7.1 45.2 44.1 1.0 0.9

Colgate Neutral 1,219 - 16,580 3,007 3,417 21.1 22.1 37.7 42.6 32.3 28.7 38.5 31.1 129.4 120.1 5.4 4.7

Dabur India Neutral 106 - 18,388 5,878 6,799 16.8 17.0 4.2 4.9 25.5 21.5 9.2 7.5 39.3 42.0 3.1 2.7

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,708 - 11,387 3,124 3,663 17.1 11.6 103.0 123.3 26.3 22.0 8.1 6.5 34.0 32.9 3.3 2.8

Godrej Consumer Neutral 555 - 18,887 5,973 7,000 18.4 18.6 22.8 27.2 24.3 20.4 6.7 5.4 31.3 38.4 3.3 2.8

HUL Neutral 431 - 93,140 25,350 29,309 14.3 14.4 14.1 16.4 30.5 26.3 22.8 17.8 82.7 76.2 3.5 3.0

ITC Accumulate 239 252 187,017 28,955 33,595 35.9 35.7 9.2 10.5 26.1 22.8 8.3 6.9 34.8 33.1 6.2 5.3


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FMCG

Marico Neutral 173 - 10,625 4,667 5,427 12.8 12.9 6.6 8.1 26.0 21.3 7.0 5.5 30.0 28.8 2.3 1.9

Nestle* Neutral 4,698 - 45,296 8,731 10,539 21.0 21.4 119.3 147.9 39.4 31.8 24.1 16.4 73.0 61.6 5.2 4.2

Tata Global Buy 106 136 6,527 7,011 7,712 9.7 10.0 6.0 7.1 17.8 14.8 1.6 1.6 8.9 10.2 0.8 0.7

IT

HCL Tech Buy 484 560 33,499 22,792 25,743 17.4 17.4 37.8 43.0 12.8 11.2 2.8 2.4 22.3 21.3 1.4 1.2

Hexaware Accumulate 119 128 3,523 1,821 2,105 19.0 18.6 9.8 10.7 12.1 11.1 2.8 2.4 23.7 22.5 1.7 1.4

Infosys Buy 2,385 2,792 136,977 37,615 42,491 31.1 30.6 158.5 174.5 15.1 13.7 3.4 2.9 22.5 20.8 3.0 2.5Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 164 177 1,823 1,758 1,972 17.0 16.6 16.8 18.6 9.7 8.8 1.3 1.2 13.6 13.2 0.7 0.5

KPIT Cummins Reduce 124 114 2,209 2,028 2,239 15.0 14.8 9.0 11.4 13.8 10.9 2.5 2.0 19.3 18.7 1.1 0.9

Mahindra Satyam Buy 71 89 8,314 7,142 8,042 15.4 15.0 7.7 8.3 9.2 8.6 1.3 1.1 13.8 13.0 0.8 0.6

Mindtree Neutral 608 - 2,466 2,172 2,450 16.1 15.5 53.9 58.5 11.3 10.4 2.1 1.8 18.9 17.0 0.9 0.8

Mphasis Accumulate 386 433 8,100 5,904 6,320 18.3 17.9 38.7 41.2 10.0 9.4 1.5 1.3 14.9 13.7 0.9 0.8

NIIT Buy 40 52 665 1,162 1,304 14.8 15.1 7.1 8.8 5.7 4.6 1.0 0.8 16.7 18.4 0.4 0.3

Persistent Neutral 349 - 1,395 1,109 1,224 23.3 22.4 37.2 40.1 9.4 8.7 1.4 1.3 15.4 14.5 0.9 0.8

TCS Accumulate 1,211 1,276 237,108 57,189 66,329 29.3 28.7 63.2 70.9 19.2 17.1 5.9 4.7 30.5 27.7 3.9 3.3

Tech Mahindra Buy 612 750 7,797 6,030 6,511 16.3 15.7 81.1 87.0 7.5 7.0 1.5 1.3 20.1 18.0 1.3 1.0

Wipro Accumulate 391 430 96,103 41,918 46,879 19.4 19.9 25.1 28.7 15.6 13.6 2.9 2.5 18.6 18.3 1.9 1.6

Media

D B Corp Buy 200 269 3,657 1,652 1,863 25.7 26.3 13.5 16.1 14.8 12.4 3.3 2.8 24.1 24.4 2.1 1.8

HT Media Buy 114 170 2,683 2,255 2,555 17.8 18.3 10.0 12.0 11.5 9.5 1.6 1.4 14.7 15.4 0.9 0.8

Jagran Prakashan Buy 85 137 2,682 1,499 1,642 27.4 28.8 7.6 9.1 11.1 9.3 3.7 3.3 34.6 37.7 1.8 1.6

PVR Neutral 143 - 371 625 732 17.4 16.9 12.4 15.8 11.5 9.1 1.8 1.9 8.5 9.9 0.8 0.6

Sun TV Network Neutral 267 - 10,514 2,135 2,458 75.2 74.4 20.9 24.0 12.8 11.1 3.0 2.5 26.0 25.1 3.9 3.1Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 435 - 9,229 9,232 13,557 30.8 31.1 48.0 58.6 9.1 7.4 1.2 1.0 14.5 7.5 3.1 2.2

Coal India Buy 303 351 191,481 65,654 71,756 26.8 27.3 24.0 26.3 12.6 11.5 3.5 2.8 30.4 27.0 1.9 1.6

Electrosteel Castings Buy 19 27 652 1,984 2,074 10.6 12.0 2.7 3.3 7.0 5.7 0.3 0.1 5.2 6.2 0.4 0.4

Hind. Zinc Buy 116 139 49,204 13,043 14,223 51.8 52.8 14.8 16.6 7.9 7.0 1.5 1.3 21.2 19.9 2.0 1.5

Hindalco Neutral 108 - 20,677 84,652 88,766 9.6 10.5 17.0 18.9 6.4 5.7 0.6 0.5 9.7 9.8 0.5 0.5

JSW Steel Accumulate 600 663 13,379 39,592 44,910 18.0 17.7 74.7 88.9 8.0 6.7 0.8 0.7 10.7 11.6 0.7 0.6

MOIL Neutral 255 - 4,287 979 1,061 45.7 46.8 24.5 26.6 10.4 9.6 1.6 1.5 16.1 15.8 2.2 1.9

Monnet Ispat Buy 418 593 2,689 3,115 3,748 22.1 25.1 59.1 66.8 7.1 6.3 1.0 0.9 15.6 15.3 1.6 1.2


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Metals & Mining

Nalco Reduce 60 51 15,438 8,276 8,578 12.7 16.4 2.5 3.5 23.6 17.1 1.3 1.3 5.6 7.5 1.4 1.4

NMDC Accumulate 176 185 69,739 11,726 12,890 77.8 78.4 18.6 20.6 9.5 8.6 2.2 1.9 26.1 23.8 3.8 3.2

SAIL Accumulate 90 102 37,237 52,461 62,935 18.0 18.8 13.2 14.5 6.8 6.2 0.8 0.7 12.4 12.3 1.1 0.9

Sesa Goa Accumulate 193 206 16,782 9,067 9,316 35.7 35.5 44.5 44.3 4.3 4.4 0.9 0.8 23.5 19.5 0.4 0.1

Sterlite Inds Buy 101 123 33,925 45,805 49,029 21.2 23.5 16.5 19.1 6.1 5.3 0.7 0.6 11.5 12.0 0.4 0.2

Tata Steel Buy 400 503 38,834 141,358 142,265 11.1 13.7 45.8 58.9 8.7 6.8 0.8 0.8 10.0 11.7 0.6 0.6

Oil & GasCairn India Buy 320 372 61,020 15,513 16,074 74.0 69.7 51.1 48.6 6.3 6.6 1.1 0.9 18.3 14.8 2.8 2.0

GAIL Buy 317 392 40,268 50,472 55,503 15.3 15.6 35.4 37.0 9.0 8.6 1.6 1.4 18.7 17.0 0.5 0.4

ONGC Buy 249 319 212,818 148,157 150,563 37.6 39.5 31.0 33.6 8.0 7.4 1.4 1.3 18.8 18.1 1.1 0.9

Reliance Industries Buy 689 872 225,502 325,734 328,669 10.9 11.7 65.8 70.1 10.5 9.8 1.1 1.0 11.9 11.5 0.7 0.6

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 49 91 928 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 7.5 5.4 1.8 1.4 27.5 29.2 0.8 0.7

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 108 175 3,146 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 13.8 14.7 7.8 7.4 0.9 0.4 11.4 10.9 0.9 0.8

Aventis* Neutral 2,121 - 4,885 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.0 104.0 22.3 20.4 4.0 3.1 18.6 17.0 3.1 2.6

Cadila Healthcare Buy 786 953 16,097 6,196 7,443 18.5 19.5 43.3 50.8 18.2 15.5 4.7 3.7 25.4 24.8 2.6 2.1

Cipla Buy 316 379 25,368 7,687 8,804 21.4 21.4 16.5 18.9 19.2 16.7 3.0 2.6 16.7 16.8 3.2 2.8

Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,661 - 28,144 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 19.8 17.9 4.1 3.5 22.4 21.0 2.8 2.5

Dishman Pharma Buy 46 92 374 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 5.0 4.1 0.4 0.4 7.7 8.5 1.0 0.8

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,048 - 17,345 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 26.9 24.9 7.7 6.8 30.8 29.0 5.6 4.8

Indoco Remedies Buy 60 665 548 685 837 15.2 15.2 55.5 66.5 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 16.4 16.9 1.0 0.9

Ipca labs Buy 341 443 4,295 2,907 3,541 21.5 21.5 32.4 40.6 10.5 8.4 2.6 2.1 27.8 27.7 1.6 1.3

Lupin Buy 537 646 23,996 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 29.7 32.4 18.1 16.6 4.7 3.8 27.0 25.2 2.7 2.2Orchid Chemicals Buy 127 178 898 2,117 2,434 17.7 17.7 16.7 22.2 7.6 5.7 0.7 0.6 9.5 11.5 1.1 0.9

Ranbaxy* Neutral 487 - 20,542 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 35.7 29.8 13.6 16.3 5.1 4.2 43.1 28.1 1.7 1.7

Sun Pharma Accumulate 582 634 59,920 9,272 11,080 40.3 36.3 26.7 28.8 21.8 20.2 4.4 3.8 22.1 20.8 5.6 4.6

Power

CESC Buy 273 342 3,415 5,084 5,512 24.2 23.8 45.2 48.5 6.1 5.6 0.7 0.6 11.2 10.9 1.1 1.1

GIPCL Buy 60 98 907 1,557 1,573 28.7 27.5 10.4 10.2 5.8 5.9 0.6 0.6 10.5 9.6 1.0 0.9

NTPC Buy 145 201 119,765 73,558 84,843 23.4 23.6 12.6 14.1 11.5 10.3 1.5 1.3 13.3 13.6 2.4 2.2

Real Estate

Anant Raj Buy 50 78 1,483 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 6.0 4.0 0.4 0.3 6.3 8.9 3.5 2.7

DLF Neutral 186 - 31,624 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 19.4 13.9 1.2 1.2 6.4 8.7 5.7 4.7


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Real Estate

HDIL Buy 62 115 2,598 2,441 3,344 53.0 46.7 21.4 25.4 2.9 2.4 0.2 0.2 8.4 9.1 2.9 2.2

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 297 - 112,901 80,967 88,684 33.1 33.4 17.9 22.0 16.6 13.5 1.9 1.7 11.5 12.5 2.1 1.7

Idea Cellular Neutral 82 - 27,021 22,558 25,326 26.4 27.5 3.2 4.7 25.3 17.2 1.9 1.7 7.5 10.0 1.7 1.4

Rcom Neutral 65 - 13,375 21,899 23,740 32.7 32.7 4.2 6.7 15.3 9.7 0.3 0.3 2.1 3.2 2.0 1.6

zOthers

Bajaj Electrical Accumulate 220 245 2,193 3,670 4,384 8.5 8.5 18.3 22.3 12.0 9.9 2.6 2.2 23.9 24.3 0.6 0.5CRISIL Neutral 1,050 - 7,370 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 30.6 26.3 13.9 11.1 50.9 46.9 7.1 6.0

Finolex Cables Buy 35 61 540 2,334 2,687 8.8 9.3 7.6 10.2 4.6 3.5 0.6 0.5 13.7 16.1 0.2 0.1

Graphite India Buy 91 124 1,773 2,158 2,406 18.1 18.9 12.4 14.0 7.3 6.5 1.0 0.9 14.0 14.3 1.0 0.8

Greenply Buy 210 298 507 1,800 2,047 11.1 11.6 34.1 49.6 6.2 4.2 1.1 0.9 20.2 23.7 0.5 0.4

Page Industries Neutral 2,997 - 3,342 935 1,168 19.6 19.6 99.7 122.2 30.1 24.5 17.4 13.9 64.2 63.1 3.6 2.9

Sintex Buy 53 129 1,440 5,219 5,912 16.5 16.9 15.8 21.4 3.3 2.5 0.5 0.4 14.7 17.1 0.5 0.4

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 262 439 245 1,045 1,173 12.3 12.4 61.5 73.2 4.3 3.6 0.8 0.7 20.2 20.4 0.5 0.5

SpiceJet Neutral 30 - 1,429 5,384 6,443 (1.0) 4.1 (3.4) 2.4 (8.7) 12.4 (11.9) 25.2 - - 0.5 0.4

Taj GVK Buy 57 108 359 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.3 6.3 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.5 1.3

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 18, 2012


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Market Outlook

Stock Watch


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May 21, 2012Market Outlook

Market Outlook 210512

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Transcript of Market Outlook 210512