Market Outlook 150612

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 150612

1/14

Market OutlookJune 15, 2012

www.angelbroking.com


Dealers Diary

The Indian markets are expected to open in the positive territory taking cues from

global markets. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 0.5% in early trade. Most of the

Asian markets are trading higher.

US markets after moving mostly higher during the course of the day saw

considerable volatility in the final hour of trading and managed to end the day on

the upside. The volatility in the latter part of the trade was seen amidst report from

Reuters, which indicated that central banks of major economies are prepared to

take necessary steps to stabilize the financial markets after the Greek elections on

Sunday. Two separate reports from Labor Department reported increase in initial

jobless claims and a fall in core consumer prices which had mixed impact on

markets.

Meanwhile, Indian shares fell sharply on Thursday after government data showed

that the headline inflation accelerated to 7.6% in May on yoy basis, driven by

higher food and fuel prices, making it harder for the Reserve Bank of India to cut

interest rates aggressively.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 16,753 / 5,077 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 16,847 17,015 / 5,107 5,160 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

16,753 / 5,077 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

16,584 16,490 / 5,025 4,995 levels.

SENSEX 16,490 16,584 16,753 16,847 17,015

NIFTY 4,995 5,025 5,077 5,107 5,160

News Analysis May inflation levels at 7.6% yoy Hindalco project analysis NTPC commissions 500 MW unit at Vindhyachal STPSRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (June 13, 2012)

FII 1,870 1,598 272 358 42,297

MFs 635 547 88 684 (5,783)

FII Derivatives (June 13, 2012)

Index Futures 2,029 952 1,077 9,955

Stock Futures 1,074 1,125 (50) 22,834

Gainers / Losers

MMTC 747 8.1 Indiabulls Real Est 54 (6.4)

Piramal Health 472 4.4 Unitech 22 (5.7)

Hindustan Copp 264 4.0 PNB 769 (5.5)

Sun TV Network 262 2.8 Adani Ports 114 (5.3)

Colgate Palmolive 1,160 2.0 Mcleod Russel 273 (4.9)

BSE Sensex (1.2) (202.6) 16,678

Nifty (1.3) (66.7) 5,055

MID CAP (1.3) (76.4) 5,925

SMALL CAP (0.7) (42.8) 6,322

BSE HC (0.6) (38.1) 6,511

BSE PSU (1.1) (77.3) 6,942

BANKEX (2.8) (328.5) 11,339

AUTO (2.0) (182.1) 8,983

METAL (1.0) (105.6) 10,264

OIL & GAS (0.2) (18.1) 7,770

BSE IT 0.3 18.8 5,702

Dow Jones 1.2 155.5 12,652NASDAQ 0.6 17.7 2,836

FTSE (0.3) (16.8) 5,467

Nikkei (0.2) (19.0) 8,569

Hang Seng (1.2) (218.1) 18,808

Straits Times (0.5) (13.1) 2,774

Shanghai Com (1.0) (23.0) 2,296

INFY 1.3 0.6 $44.4

WIT 0.8 0.1 $8.8IBN (1.0) (0.3) $29.8

HDB (3.4) (1.0) $29.8

Advances 989 410

Declines 1,730 1,013

Unchanged 120 78

BSE 1,773

NSE 8,457


2/14



May inflation levels at 7.6% yoy

Wholesale price-based inflation for the month of May, 2012 came in at 7.6% yoy,

higher than 7.2% yoy levels registered in April, 2012. The inflation levels of March,

2012 were revised upwards from 6.9% yoy to 7.7% yoy. The May, 2012 inflation

levels of 7.6% yoy were in line with the Bloomberg estimates. Core (non-foodmanufacturing) inflation which the RBI tracks closely remained stable at 4.7%

yoy

Primary articles inflation remained at elevated levels of 10.9% yoy, c.120bp higher

than the 9.7% yoy witnessed in April, 2012. The food articles inflation which had

moderated considerably between October 2011 and January 2012 before rising

back sharply remained at elevated levels (10.5% yoy) in the month of May.

However, on the positive side, the food index declined marginally by 0.05% mom

(annualised 0.6%) mom compared to a sharp growth of 4.7% mom (annualised

56.6%) in April 2012. The fall in food article index is only the second instance of a

mom decline in the last 12 months. Also with current forecasts suggesting goodmonsoons, we expect food inflation to remain under control from here on.

The Non-food articles index rose by 8.5% yoy in May 2012 compared to 1.6% yoy

in April 2012. However, over April, 2012, the Non-food articles index rose by

1.7% mom (annualised growth of 20.3%) compared to 2.8% mom growth

(annualised growth of 34.1%) in April, 2012. The growth in non-food articles index

was on account of higher prices of soyabean, safflower, gaur seed, raw silk and

rape & mustard seed and sunflower, amongst others. Inflation for minerals

registered an uptick to 15.6% yoy compared to 19.3% yoy in April, 2012.

Fuel & power inflation (11.5% yoy) witnessed annualised mom growth of 12.2%

over April 2012 due to higher prices of petrol, bitumen and lubricants. Global

crude prices have also been declining in-line with other commodities. In fact, WTI

levels have fallen sharply by over 30% in the last 2-3 months. The decline in crude

prices globally, however, has not contributed to the decline in domestic inflation at

the same pace due to the counter effect of depreciating INR. However, with INR

stabilizing at current levels (~55), the positive effect of lower global crude prices

should become more visible in the coming months.

The impending fuel hikes to reduce the subsidy burden on oil marketing

companies could, however, create some inflationary pressures. Petrol prices have

already been passed on and are only expected to increase fuel inflation

marginally, however any increase in diesel prices (contributes to over 60% of

overall fuel subsidy and the current spread between petrol and diesel at all-time

high of `33 vs. 10-year average of `14), though ruled out by the government as

of now, could indirectly lead to higher food prices and have a meaningful negative

impact on overall inflation.

Manufactured products which have a weightage of c.65% in the overall WPI

inflation remained stable at 5.0%. The annualized mom growth in manufacturing

index stood at 5.8% in May, 2012 compared to 8.4% in April, 2012. The core

inflation which the RBI tracks closely for its monetary policy remained stable at

4.7% yoy (monthly average of 7.3% in FY2012). ) The recent sharp decline in

global commodity prices, which generally gets reflected in inflation levels

domestically with a lag, is expected to lead to a further decline in manufacturing

inflation, in our view.


3/14



Hindalco project analysis

Hindalco is on the verge of a massive expansion plan, wherein it is expanding its

aluminium and alumina capacity three-fold over the coming 4-5 years. In light of

recent events such as clearance of Mahan coal block by Group of Ministers (GoM),

delay in projects, declining aluminium prices and rising input costs (crude oilderivatives), we revisited Hindalcos financials for its upcoming projects under

various scenarios. Our findings reveal that all three projects will generate ~17%

RoE in a scenario where aluminium prices are at least at US$2,400/tonne (INR-

USD53) and the projects have the backing of captive bauxite and coal mines a

scenario that looks remote in the coming 2-3 years.

When Hindalco planned this massive expansion, the foreseen scenario was not as

gloomy as it is currently. The projects have faced several hurdles, especially in the

past two years. Nevertheless, clearance to Mahan coal block from GoM is

structurally positive for Hindalco. However, assuming that even if Mahan coal

block receives clearance from the Cabinet soon, the captive coal mine is not

expected to commence production until the next 18 months in our view, while the

Mahan smelter is expected to be ready for commissioning in 1HFY2013.

A decline in aluminium prices and higher input and coal costs have impacted

profitability of the companys existing operations and lowered cash flow

generation. This may also lead to further equity dilutions for the companys

upcoming projects.

We do not expect a meaningful spike in aluminium prices in the near term.

Further, with slow clearances for the companys upcoming mines,

Post GoMs clearance for Mahan coal block, we

expect the Cabinets clearance as well; however, potential delays cannot be

entirely ruled out.

Further, there has been little progress on the procedural clearance process for the

companys Auranga coal mine and Talbira coal mine which are expected to feed

its upcoming Aditya and Jharkhand projects, respectively. While forest clearance is

pending for Auranga mine, Talbira mine has received no major clearances as of

now. While Jharkhand capex has not yet started, Aditya is at an advanced stage

of completion, with commissioning due for 4QFY2013, while evidently coal

availability from Auranga has low visibility as of now. Going forward, to generate

over 15% RoE, Hindalco needs to get clearances for atleast Auranga coal mine (for

captive power generation at the upcoming Aditya smelter) alongside higher

aluminium prices.

Hindalco is expanding its capacities three-fold over the

coming four-five years, and we are structurally positive on its integrated capacities.

However, low aluminium prices, rising costs and delay in commencement of

mining from captive blocks are expected to mute its profitability growth in the next

two years. We expect Mahan coal block to be cleared by the Cabinet, which will be

structurally positive for Hindalco. However, even then it will take atleast 18 months

for Hindalco to commence production from this block. Moreover, we do not rule

out delays in the companys upcoming projects.


4/14



NTPC commissions 500 MW unit at Vindhyachal STPS

NTPC has commissioned 500MW unit at Vindhyachal Super Thermal Power

Station on June 14, 2012. With this, the total capacity of NTPC group has become

39,174 MW. The company targets to add 4,160MW of capacity in FY2013 and

has till date added 2,160MW of capacity since the beginning of the year. Atcurrent market price, the stock is trading at 1.5x FY2013E and 1.4x FY2014E

P/BV.

Economic and Political News

May exports down 4% at US$25.7Billion India, Brazil set trade target of US$15Billion by 2015 DoT to bargain with Telcos for lowering reserve price

Corporate News

Infosys inks pact with Israel government Birla, Lafarge eye JP Cement plants Wipro gets lucrative multi-year order from Australian co. Tata Power to shelve new imported coal projects Alstom T&D India gets contracts worth `225cr from PowergridSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint


5/14

Global economic events release calendar

Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

June 15, 2012 US Industrial Production % MAY 1.09 0.10

June 18, 2012 India RBI Repo rate % JUN 18 8.00 7.75India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % JUN 18 4.75 4.75

India RBI Reverse Repo rate % JUN 18 7.00 6.75

June 19, 2012 UK CPI (YoY) % Change MAY 3.00 3.00

US Housing Starts Thousands MAY 717.00 723.00

US Building permits Thousands MAY 723.00 730.00

June 20, 2012 UK Jobless claims change % Change MAY (13.70) (5.00)

US FOMC rate decision % JUN 20 0.25 --

June 21, 2012 Germany PMI Manufacturing Value JUN A 45.20 45.40

Euro ZoneEuro-Zone ConsumerConfidence

Value JUN A (19.30) --

US Existing home sales Millions MAY 4.62 4.57

Germany PMI Services Value JUN A 51.80 51.80

June 25, 2012 US New home sales Thousands MAY 343.00 --

June 26, 2012 US Consumer ConfidenceS.A./

1985=100JUN 64.90 --

June 28, 2012 Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands JUN -- --

US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 1Q T 1.90 --

UK GDP (YoY) % Change 1Q F (0.10) --

July 01, 2012 China PMI Manufacturing Value JUN 50.40 --

July 02, 2012 India Imports YoY% % Change MAY 3.80 --

India Exports YoY% % Change MAY 3.20 --UK PMI Manufacturing Value JUN 45.90 --

July 05, 2012 UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio JUL 5 0.50 0.50

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % JUL 5 1.00 --

July 06, 2012 US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands JUN 69.00 --

US Unnemployment rate % JUN 8.20 --

July 09, 2012 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change JUN 3.00 --

July 10, 2012 UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change MAY (1.00) --

China Exports YoY% % Change JUN 15.30 --

July 12, 2012 India Industrial Production YoY % Change MAY 0.10 --

July 13, 2012 US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change JUN (1.00) --

China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change JUN 9.60 --

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research


June 15, 2012

Market Outlook


6/14

Market StrategyJune 15, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit 1:

5.9

7.5

9.8

7.4

9.4

8.5

7.68.2

9.2

8.0

6.76.1

5.3

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

(%)

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:

6.2

9.5

3.7 3.42.5

(5.0)

6.0

2.7

1.0

4.1

(3.2)

0.1

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

(%)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3:

9.5 9.4 9.810.0 9.9 9.5

7.76.9

7.4 7.7 7.2 7.6

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

(%)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4:

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5:

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

75

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Jul-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 6:8.00

7.00

4.75

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

Source: RBI, Angel Research


7/14

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 129 - 2,510 1,432 1,647 14.7 14.7 7.0 8.0 18.4 16.1 3.9 3.3 22.8 22.3 1.8 1.5

United Phosphorus Buy 113 183 5,220 8,191 8,764 16.5 16.5 17.1 18.3 6.6 6.2 1.1 0.9 17.5 16.2 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 301 345 2,569 2,715 3,041 15.3 15.3 29.2 32.8 10.3 9.2 2.4 1.9 26.0 23.3 0.9 0.8

Apollo Tyres Buy 80 100 4,007 13,699 15,184 10.5 10.2 12.1 13.3 6.6 6.0 1.2 1.0 19.7 18.4 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 26 33 6,971 14,798 16,687 9.6 9.6 2.4 3.0 10.8 8.8 2.2 1.9 14.8 16.5 0.6 0.5

Automotive Axle Accumulate 450 514 680 1,211 1,387 12.1 11.7 50.3 57.1 9.0 7.9 2.3 1.8 27.8 25.7 0.6 0.5Bajaj Auto Buy 1,549 1,835 44,835 22,118 24,889 19.0 18.6 115.7 126.5 13.4 12.3 5.4 4.3 45.0 38.9 1.6 1.4

Bharat Forge Buy 306 372 7,118 7,173 7,998 16.3 16.5 22.3 26.6 13.7 11.5 2.7 2.2 21.0 21.0 1.1 0.9

Bosch India Accumulate 8,683 9,429 27,265 9,390 10,716 19.5 19.1 420.2 471.4 20.7 18.4 4.8 4.0 23.3 21.8 2.6 2.2

CEAT Buy 94 164 322 5,067 5,631 8.0 7.6 39.4 41.0 2.4 2.3 0.4 0.4 18.8 16.5 0.3 0.3

Exide Industries Accumulate 131 146 11,152 5,787 6,595 15.5 17.0 7.1 9.0 18.5 14.7 3.3 2.8 18.6 20.3 1.6 1.3

FAG Bearings Accumulate 1,485 1,594 2,467 1,531 1,748 18.8 18.5 118.0 132.8 12.6 11.2 2.7 2.2 24.0 21.9 1.4 1.1

Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,954 2,221 39,013 26,106 29,296 15.0 15.2 140.3 148.1 13.9 13.2 6.6 5.1 54.8 43.3 1.2 0.9

JK Tyre Buy 84 135 344 7,950 8,904 5.5 6.0 25.1 38.6 3.3 2.2 0.4 0.3 12.1 16.4 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 680 821 41,757 36,010 40,882 10.0 10.0 47.7 53.3 14.3 12.8 2.8 2.4 21.3 20.6 0.9 0.8

Maruti Buy 1,079 1,510 31,171 42,683 48,736 7.1 7.5 86.6 100.6 12.5 10.7 1.8 1.6 15.3 15.5 0.5 0.4

Motherson Sumi Buy 158 216 6,175 23,342 26,366 7.8 8.2 13.3 18.0 11.8 8.8 2.8 2.2 26.2 28.4 0.4 0.4

Subros Accumulate 32 36 192 1,244 1,402 8.4 8.3 4.5 5.1 7.2 6.3 0.7 0.7 9.9 11.0 0.4 0.3

Tata Motors Buy 227 299 60,498 189,676 210,905 12.5 12.6 39.8 45.2 5.7 5.0 2.3 1.9 44.3 41.6 0.4 0.3

TVS Motor Buy 33 44 1,565 7,690 8,459 6.1 6.0 5.0 5.5 6.6 6.0 1.2 1.0 19.0 18.6 0.2 0.1

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 772 498 16,356 8,760 10,023 7.6 7.5 18.2 20.7 42.4 37.2 5.7 5.1 14.4 14.6 1.8 1.6BGR Energy Neutral 292 - 2,108 4,195 4,837 11.0 11.0 30.1 32.4 9.7 9.0 1.7 1.5 18.4 17.6 1.0 1.0

BHEL Neutral 217 - 53,174 46,344 46,916 18.3 18.6 23.5 24.1 9.2 9.0 1.8 1.6 21.3 18.9 1.0 1.0

Blue Star Neutral 160 - 1,440 3,047 3,328 5.4 6.9 9.6 16.2 16.7 9.9 3.3 2.7 20.7 29.7 0.6 0.5

Crompton Greaves Buy 115 142 7,364 12,451 14,265 7.9 8.3 8.0 9.5 14.4 12.1 1.9 1.7 13.9 14.9 0.6 0.5

Jyoti Structures Buy 39 67 319 2,622 2,801 10.6 11.0 10.9 13.4 3.6 2.9 0.5 0.4 13.7 14.9 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 52 73 1,347 6,686 7,200 8.5 8.8 10.6 12.2 5.0 4.3 0.9 0.8 25.9 24.0 0.3 0.3

LMW Buy 1,592 1,992 1,794 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 11.1 9.6 1.9 1.7 17.4 18.4 0.3 0.2

Thermax Neutral 453 - 5,395 5,514 5,559 9.8 9.6 29.7 28.4 15.3 16.0 2.9 2.6 20.2 16.9 0.9 0.8


June 15, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


8/14



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,188 - 22,308 11,018 12,663 19.9 21.2 70.7 81.2 16.8 14.6 2.9 2.7 18.0 19.0 1.8 1.4

Ambuja Cements Neutral 163 - 25,109 10,035 11,504 23.5 23.8 10.1 10.6 16.1 15.5 3.2 2.9 18.5 19.4 2.1 1.7

India Cements Neutral 77 - 2,353 4,423 4,906 18.2 18.8 9.9 12.7 7.8 6.1 0.7 0.6 8.6 10.5 0.8 0.7

J K Lakshmi Cements Buy 64 79 783 1,938 2,246 19.1 20.1 14.6 16.1 4.4 4.0 0.6 0.5 13.4 13.6 0.5 0.9

Madras Cements Neutral 150 - 3,571 3,444 3,786 25.5 24.9 14.6 17.1 10.3 8.8 1.5 1.3 15.6 16.0 1.7 1.4

Shree Cements Neutral 2,612 - 9,099 5,465 6,249 24.3 23.7 151.5 222.1 17.2 11.8 4.1 3.5 21.6 25.8 1.4 1.1

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,426 - 39,076 20,116 22,655 21.3 22.5 82.1 97.5 17.4 14.6 2.7 2.4 16.8 17.4 1.9 1.8Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 200 273 1,055 2,014 2,293 22.4 22.4 22.6 26.7 8.9 7.5 1.0 0.9 11.4 11.9 2.3 2.6

Consolidated Co Neutral 14 - 259 2,526 2,792 5.7 6.6 1.8 2.8 7.6 5.0 0.4 0.4 5.5 8.1 0.3 0.3

Hind. Const. Neutral 19 - 1,153 4,239 4,522 11.1 11.8 (1.8) (0.8) (10.6) (24.3) 1.1 1.2 (9.5) (4.7) 1.3 1.2

IRB Infra Buy 124 166 4,131 3,821 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.0 16.9 8.3 7.3 1.3 1.1 16.1 15.8 2.7 2.5

ITNL Buy 185 265 3,597 6,619 7,925 23.8 23.3 22.0 26.7 8.4 6.9 1.2 1.0 14.9 15.9 2.2 2.1

IVRCL Infra Buy 48 61 1,284 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 19.0 10.5 0.6 0.6 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.7

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 68 88 14,364 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.2 5.0 15.9 13.5 1.3 1.2 8.5 9.3 2.3 2.0

Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,297 1,553 79,471 59,559 69,089 12.1 11.5 70.8 76.5 18.3 17.0 2.8 2.4 16.1 15.3 1.5 1.3

Madhucon Proj Buy 38 70 277 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 8.1 8.0 0.4 0.4 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

Nagarjuna Const. Accumulate 37 41 943 5,453 6,169 8.1 8.5 1.6 1.9 22.4 19.1 0.4 0.4 1.8 2.1 0.6 0.7

Patel Engg. Neutral 88 - 618 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 6.3 6.1 0.4 0.4 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.1

Punj Lloyd Neutral 46 - 1,523 11,592 12,993 8.4 8.4 1.8 3.2 25.5 14.3 0.5 0.5 2.0 3.4 0.6 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 139 182 2,093 2,789 3,147 10.6 10.7 8.4 10.4 16.5 13.4 2.2 1.9 15.0 15.6 0.9 0.8

Simplex Infra Buy 211 265 1,044 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.5 29.4 9.0 7.2 0.8 0.8 9.6 11.0 0.5 0.4

FinancialsAllahabad Bank Accumulate 137 147 6,853 7,392 8,542 3.1 3.1 38.3 42.1 3.6 3.3 0.6 0.5 18.4 17.6 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 113 - 6,334 5,151 5,843 3.2 3.1 22.4 25.7 5.0 4.4 0.8 0.7 15.8 16.0 - -

Axis Bank Buy 1,012 1,476 41,911 16,157 19,557 3.2 3.2 116.4 139.1 8.7 7.3 1.6 1.4 20.0 20.3 - -

Bank of Baroda Buy 695 925 27,201 15,993 18,918 2.6 2.6 127.3 149.9 5.5 4.6 0.9 0.8 17.8 18.2 - -

Bank of India Accumulate 350 389 20,054 13,558 15,551 2.5 2.4 61.6 70.8 5.7 4.9 0.9 0.8 16.8 16.9 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 51 - 3,025 3,580 4,050 3.2 3.2 11.5 13.1 4.5 3.9 0.7 0.6 17.4 17.2 - -

Canara Bank Buy 413 493 18,300 12,061 13,906 2.3 2.3 83.1 92.7 5.0 4.5 0.8 0.7 16.7 16.4 - -

Central Bank Neutral 81 - 5,926 6,838 7,912 2.3 2.4 13.8 20.3 5.8 4.0 0.8 0.7 10.9 14.4 - -


June 15, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


9/14



Financials

Corporation Bank Accumulate 438 468 6,493 5,203 5,880 2.2 2.1 107.5 112.7 4.1 3.9 0.7 0.6 17.9 16.5 - -

Dena Bank Accumulate 97 107 3,378 3,149 3,522 2.8 2.8 23.3 26.1 4.1 3.7 0.7 0.6 17.7 17.0 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 422 - 7,222 2,743 3,131 3.4 3.3 49.7 57.4 8.5 7.4 1.1 1.0 14.1 14.6 - -

HDFC Neutral 645 - 95,320 7,393 8,844 3.5 3.4 31.7 37.9 20.3 17.0 4.1 3.6 34.7 31.9 - -

HDFC Bank Accumulate 534 567 125,707 21,831 27,477 4.3 4.3 28.3 35.5 18.9 15.1 3.6 3.1 20.8 22.1 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 819 1,174 94,181 22,209 26,512 2.8 2.8 67.9 81.1 12.1 10.1 1.5 1.3 14.7 16.0 - -

IDBI Bank Buy 90 113 11,557 8,004 9,589 1.9 2.0 19.9 23.9 4.6 3.8 0.6 0.5 13.8 14.9 - -Indian Bank Accumulate 175 190 7,504 6,312 7,119 3.4 3.3 41.1 43.7 4.3 4.0 0.7 0.6 18.2 16.9 - -

IOB Accumulate 87 92 6,966 7,354 8,283 2.5 2.4 16.3 21.7 5.4 4.0 0.6 0.5 11.5 13.9 - -

J & K Bank Neutral 910 - 4,413 2,535 2,861 3.5 3.4 176.3 184.4 5.2 4.9 0.9 0.8 19.3 17.6 - -

LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 251 286 12,667 2,108 2,607 2.6 2.6 24.5 30.6 10.3 8.2 1.9 1.6 20.1 21.4 - -

Oriental Bank Accumulate 241 262 7,033 6,431 7,315 2.7 2.6 54.4 63.8 4.4 3.8 0.6 0.5 13.6 14.3 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 769 1,041 26,083 19,893 23,653 3.1 3.2 153.4 175.2 5.0 4.4 0.9 0.8 18.3 18.1 - -

South Ind.Bank Neutral 24 - 2,678 1,440 1,635 2.7 2.5 3.8 4.1 6.3 5.8 1.2 1.1 19.9 18.6 - -

St Bk of India Accumulate 2,154 2,469 144,560 68,311 79,649 3.6 3.6 230.4 273.4 9.4 7.9 1.5 1.3 18.2 18.8 - -

Syndicate Bank Buy 101 126 6,107 7,133 8,255 3.0 3.0 25.9 30.0 3.9 3.4 0.6 0.5 16.9 17.1 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 78 - 5,181 5,623 6,380 2.4 2.4 16.9 17.9 4.6 4.4 0.9 0.8 16.5 15.4 - -

Union Bank Buy 208 261 11,446 10,215 11,854 2.9 2.8 42.7 50.3 4.9 4.1 0.8 0.7 17.0 17.5 - -

United Bank Buy 64 78 2,309 3,551 4,128 2.7 2.8 18.8 22.6 3.4 2.8 0.5 0.5 15.5 16.5 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 58 - 2,872 2,668 3,001 2.2 2.2 10.6 12.2 5.5 4.8 0.8 0.7 13.3 13.8 - -

Yes Bank Buy 332 450 11,741 3,209 4,144 2.7 2.8 33.9 41.5 9.8 8.0 2.1 1.7 23.1 23.3 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 3,869 - 37,107 11,423 13,309 16.3 16.3 125.3 148.4 30.9 26.1 10.5 8.2 38.0 35.4 3.2 2.7Britannia Buy 530 633 6,326 5,835 6,824 6.3 6.7 20.7 27.5 25.6 19.3 10.0 7.4 42.7 44.3 1.1 0.9

Colgate Neutral 1,160 - 15,779 3,007 3,417 21.1 22.1 38.2 43.8 30.4 26.5 36.1 28.4 130.2 119.9 5.1 4.5

Dabur India Neutral 110 - 19,076 5,878 6,799 16.8 17.0 4.2 4.9 26.4 22.3 9.6 7.8 39.3 42.0 3.3 2.8

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,632 - 11,068 3,124 3,663 17.1 11.6 103.0 123.3 25.6 21.4 7.9 6.3 34.0 32.9 3.2 2.7

Godrej Consumer Neutral 547 - 18,611 5,973 7,000 18.4 18.6 22.8 27.2 24.0 20.1 6.6 5.3 31.3 38.4 3.3 2.8

HUL Neutral 441 - 95,279 25,350 29,309 14.3 14.4 14.1 16.4 31.2 26.9 23.3 18.2 82.7 76.2 3.6 3.1

ITC Neutral 244 - 191,004 29,638 34,159 35.4 35.8 9.3 10.9 26.1 22.4 8.4 6.9 35.3 33.8 6.2 5.3


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Stock Watch


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FMCG

Marico Neutral 172 - 11,111 4,667 5,427 12.8 12.9 6.6 8.1 26.0 21.2 7.0 5.4 30.0 28.8 2.4 2.0

Nestle* Neutral 4,534 - 43,711 8,731 10,539 21.0 21.4 119.3 147.9 38.0 30.7 23.3 15.9 73.0 61.6 5.0 4.1

Tata Global Buy 106 136 6,546 7,011 7,711 9.7 10.0 6.3 7.5 16.9 14.2 1.6 1.6 9.5 10.9 0.8 0.8

IT

HCL Tech Buy 480 560 33,241 22,792 25,743 17.4 17.4 37.8 43.0 12.7 11.2 2.8 2.4 22.3 21.3 1.4 1.2

Hexaware Neutral 123 - 3,654 1,821 2,105 19.0 18.6 9.8 10.7 12.6 11.5 2.9 2.5 23.7 22.5 1.7 1.4

Infosys Accumulate 2,498 2,792 143,454 37,615 42,491 31.1 30.6 158.5 174.5 15.8 14.3 3.6 3.0 22.5 20.8 3.2 2.7Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 162 177 1,808 1,758 1,972 17.0 16.6 16.8 18.6 9.7 8.7 1.3 1.2 13.6 13.2 0.7 0.5

KPIT Cummins Neutral 114 - 2,025 2,028 2,239 15.0 14.8 9.0 11.4 12.6 10.0 2.3 1.9 19.3 18.7 1.0 0.8

Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 78 86 9,126 7,097 7,812 16.2 16.0 7.5 8.0 10.3 9.8 1.4 1.2 13.2 12.3 0.9 0.7

Mindtree Neutral 626 - 2,545 2,172 2,450 16.1 15.5 53.9 58.5 11.6 10.7 2.2 1.8 18.9 17.0 1.0 0.8

Mphasis Accumulate 342 373 7,194 5,608 5,964 17.7 17.3 35.5 36.8 9.6 9.3 1.3 1.2 13.9 12.6 0.8 0.7

NIIT Buy 43 52 704 1,162 1,304 14.8 15.1 7.1 8.8 6.0 4.9 1.0 0.9 16.7 18.4 0.4 0.3

Persistent Neutral 346 - 1,384 1,109 1,224 23.3 22.4 37.2 40.1 9.3 8.6 1.4 1.3 15.4 14.5 0.9 0.8

TCS Neutral 1,251 - 244,878 57,189 66,329 29.3 28.7 63.2 70.9 19.8 17.7 6.0 4.9 30.5 27.7 4.0 3.4

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 677 725 8,631 5,880 6,314 15.6 15.2 75.9 82.2 8.9 8.2 1.8 1.5 20.1 18.1 1.4 1.2

Wipro Accumulate 395 452 97,218 43,150 48,541 20.0 20.5 25.9 30.1 15.3 13.1 2.9 2.5 19.1 19.0 1.9 1.6

Media

D B Corp Buy 183 269 3,346 1,652 1,863 25.7 26.3 13.5 16.1 13.5 11.4 3.0 2.6 24.1 24.4 1.9 1.6

HT Media Buy 95 148 2,241 2,255 2,555 16.3 16.7 9.0 10.6 10.6 9.0 1.3 1.2 13.4 13.8 0.6 0.4

Jagran Prakashan Buy 86 137 2,707 1,499 1,642 27.4 28.8 7.6 9.1 11.2 9.4 3.8 3.4 34.6 37.7 1.8 1.6

PVR Neutral 151 - 392 625 732 17.4 16.9 12.4 15.8 12.2 9.6 2.0 2.1 8.5 9.9 0.8 0.7

Sun TV Network Neutral 262 - 10,315 2,135 2,458 75.2 74.4 20.9 24.0 12.5 10.9 2.9 2.5 26.0 25.1 3.8 3.0Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 450 - 9,556 9,232 13,557 30.8 31.1 48.0 58.6 9.4 7.7 1.2 1.0 14.5 7.5 3.2 2.2

Coal India Accumulate 331 353 209,040 68,841 74,509 25.3 25.3 24.1 26.1 13.8 12.7 3.8 3.1 30.4 26.8 2.1 1.8

Electrosteel Castings Buy 17 22 593 1,984 2,074 11.2 12.6 2.0 2.7 8.4 6.4 0.3 0.1 4.2 5.5 0.5 0.5

Hind. Zinc Buy 118 139 49,690 13,043 14,223 51.8 52.8 14.8 16.6 7.9 7.1 1.6 1.3 21.2 19.9 2.1 1.5

Hindalco Neutral 120 - 23,003 83,463 91,313 9.0 9.9 13.7 18.1 8.8 6.7 0.7 0.6 7.9 9.6 0.5 0.5

JSW Steel Accumulate 630 663 14,050 39,592 44,910 18.0 17.7 74.7 88.9 8.4 7.1 0.8 0.7 10.7 11.6 0.7 0.7

MOIL Accumulate 268 296 4,501 1,007 1,091 56.6 56.9 29.4 31.9 9.1 8.4 1.6 1.4 19.0 18.2 2.3 1.8

Monnet Ispat Buy 340 447 2,187 3,115 3,748 22.1 25.1 59.1 66.8 5.8 5.1 0.8 0.7 15.6 15.3 1.4 1.1


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Market Outlook

Stock Watch


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Metals & Mining

Nalco Reduce 59 54 15,090 8,474 9,024 12.6 16.2 2.6 3.6 22.9 16.3 1.3 1.2 5.6 7.5 1.3 1.3

NMDC Accumulate 168 187 66,568 11,959 13,062 78.2 78.6 19.1 20.9 8.8 8.0 2.2 1.8 27.1 24.4 3.5 3.0

SAIL Neutral 91 - 37,670 50,914 60,785 14.6 15.1 9.4 10.5 9.7 8.7 0.9 0.8 9.2 9.6 1.2 1.1

Sesa Goa Accumulate 187 206 16,287 9,067 9,316 35.7 35.5 44.5 44.3 4.2 4.2 0.9 0.8 23.5 19.5 0.4 0.1

Sterlite Inds Buy 102 123 34,228 45,805 49,029 21.2 23.5 16.5 19.1 6.2 5.3 0.7 0.6 11.5 12.0 0.4 0.2

Tata Steel Buy 407 499 39,490 143,088 148,011 10.9 12.1 53.9 66.0 7.6 6.2 0.9 0.8 12.2 13.4 0.6 0.6

Oil & GasCairn India Accumulate 324 372 61,814 15,513 16,074 74.0 69.7 51.1 48.6 6.3 6.7 1.1 0.9 18.3 14.8 2.8 2.1

GAIL Buy 333 389 42,272 50,472 55,502 15.3 15.6 35.4 37.0 9.4 9.0 1.7 1.5 19.0 17.2 0.1 -

ONGC Buy 268 321 228,902 156,331 159,043 37.7 36.3 31.3 32.6 8.5 8.2 1.5 1.4 18.7 17.3 1.2 1.0

Reliance Industries Buy 716 897 234,311 316,404 319,119 11.2 12.0 63.5 68.7 11.3 10.4 1.1 1.0 11.7 11.4 0.7 0.7

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 51 91 968 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 7.8 5.6 1.9 1.5 27.5 29.2 0.8 0.7

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 106 156 3,083 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 13.8 14.7 7.7 7.2 0.9 0.4 11.4 10.9 0.7 0.6

Aventis* Neutral 2,110 - 4,860 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.0 104.0 22.2 20.3 3.9 3.1 18.6 17.0 3.1 2.6

Cadila Healthcare Buy 723 953 14,807 6,196 7,443 18.5 19.5 43.3 50.8 16.7 14.2 4.3 3.4 25.4 24.8 2.4 1.9

Cipla Buy 306 379 24,537 7,687 8,804 21.4 21.4 16.5 18.9 18.5 16.2 2.9 2.5 16.7 16.8 3.1 2.7

Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,555 - 26,356 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 18.6 16.7 3.8 3.2 22.4 21.0 2.6 2.3

Dishman Pharma Buy 55 92 442 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 6.0 4.9 0.5 0.4 7.7 8.5 1.0 0.8

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,013 - 17,051 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 26.5 24.4 7.6 6.6 30.8 29.0 5.5 4.7

Indoco Remedies Buy 55 82 508 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 7.5 6.2 1.1 0.9 15.9 16.3 0.9 0.7

Ipca labs Buy 337 435 4,243 2,850 3,474 20.3 20.3 26.6 32.7 12.7 10.3 3.3 2.6 28.2 27.9 1.6 1.3

Lupin Buy 515 647 23,024 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 29.7 32.4 17.4 15.9 4.5 3.6 27.0 25.2 2.6 2.1Orchid Chemicals Buy 117 178 822 2,117 2,434 17.7 17.7 16.7 22.2 7.0 5.3 0.6 0.6 9.5 11.5 1.0 0.9

Ranbaxy* Neutral 472 - 19,922 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 35.7 29.8 13.2 15.8 5.0 4.0 43.1 28.1 1.7 1.6

Sun Pharma Neutral 582 - 59,966 9,272 11,080 38.6 38.0 22.7 22.6 25.7 25.8 4.3 3.8 17.9 15.6 5.0 3.9

Power

CESC Buy 272 342 3,397 5,084 5,512 24.2 23.8 45.2 48.5 6.0 5.6 0.6 0.6 11.2 10.9 1.1 1.1

GIPCL Buy 63 77 947 1,557 1,573 28.8 28.5 10.4 10.9 6.1 5.8 0.6 0.6 10.4 10.2 1.1 0.9

NTPC Accumulate 148 158 122,363 74,766 86,549 23.1 23.4 12.4 14.1 11.9 10.5 1.5 1.4 13.0 13.5 2.4 2.2

Real Estate

Anant Raj Buy 47 78 1,375 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 5.5 3.7 0.3 0.3 6.3 8.9 3.4 2.5

DLF Neutral 192 - 32,524 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 20.0 14.3 1.3 1.2 6.4 8.7 5.8 4.8


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Market Outlook

Stock Watch


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Real Estate

HDIL Buy 72 115 3,031 2,441 3,344 53.0 46.7 21.4 25.4 3.4 2.9 0.3 0.3 8.4 9.1 3.1 2.3

MLIFE Buy 312 376 1,273 814 897 26.9 27.0 31.3 33.9 10.0 9.2 1.0 0.9 10.2 10.1 1.9 1.7

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 305 - 115,958 80,961 86,705 33.5 34.0 17.2 20.8 17.8 14.7 2.0 1.8 11.5 12.3 2.1 1.8

Idea Cellular Neutral 77 - 25,334 22,558 25,326 26.4 27.5 3.2 4.7 23.8 16.1 1.8 1.6 7.5 10.0 1.6 1.4

Rcom Neutral 68 - 13,943 22,288 23,871 32.1 32.7 4.4 6.0 15.3 11.3 0.4 0.4 2.4 3.2 2.0 1.7

zOthersBajaj Electricals Buy 187 246 1,865 3,569 4,172 8.6 9.2 17.3 22.3 10.8 8.4 2.3 2.0 22.9 25.3 0.5 0.4

Abbott India Accumulate 1,450 1,628 3,081 1,661 1,918 9.7 12.0 60.7 90.4 23.9 16.0 4.9 4.0 22.0 27.3 1.6 1.3

CRISIL Neutral 1,060 - 7,436 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 30.9 26.5 14.0 11.2 50.9 46.9 7.2 6.0

Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 255 288 323 385 444 17.2 17.4 28.9 32.0 8.8 8.0 1.9 1.5 23.4 21.1 1.0 0.9

Force Motors Buy 448 680 584 2,346 2,753 6.7 7.0 50.9 61.9 8.8 7.2 0.5 0.5 5.5 6.3 0.2 0.2

Finolex Cables Buy 38 61 585 2,334 2,687 8.8 9.3 7.6 10.2 5.0 3.7 0.7 0.6 13.7 16.1 0.2 0.1

Goodyear India Buy 320 374 739 1,511 1,692 7.9 9.0 31.5 41.3 10.2 7.8 2.0 1.7 21.2 23.5 0.3 0.2

Graphite India Buy 89 124 1,729 2,158 2,406 18.1 18.9 12.4 14.0 7.1 6.3 1.0 0.9 14.0 14.3 0.9 0.8

HEG Buy 203 242 810 1,746 1,946 16.5 17.7 22.5 32.9 9.0 6.2 0.9 0.8 10.4 14.2 1.1 1.0

Hitachi Buy 116 160 266 857 968 6.9 8.4 10.2 16.0 11.4 7.2 1.4 1.2 12.9 17.8 0.4 0.3

Honeywell Automation Accumulate 2,529 2,674 2,236 1,542 1,739 9.4 10.0 116.1 140.8 21.8 18.0 3.1 2.7 15.5 15.9 1.3 1.1

INEOS ABS India Accumulate 722 777 1,270 900 1,011 10.2 11.5 35.6 45.7 20.3 15.8 2.9 2.5 15.4 17.2 1.2 1.0

ITD Cementation Neutral 233 - 268 1,535 1,842 11.1 11.1 27.3 38.3 8.5 6.1 0.7 0.6 7.9 10.2 0.6 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Accumulate 236 268 1,903 1,315 1,568 8.6 11.1 6.4 10.9 37.0 21.7 3.1 2.9 8.4 13.9 1.8 1.5

MCX Buy 1,021 1,598 5,205 610 702 65.5 67.0 67.9 79.9 15.0 12.8 4.4 3.7 29.1 28.9 5.6 4.4

MRF Buy 10,389 13,106 4,406 12,390 14,400 10.4 11.3 1,334.6 1,638.2 7.8 6.3 1.6 1.3 16.5 17.4 0.6 0.5Greenply Industries Buy 209 309 506 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 7.1 4.8 1.2 0.9 16.8 21.0 0.5 0.4

Page Industries Neutral 2,904 - 3,239 887 1,108 18.3 18.6 95.0 120.9 30.6 24.0 16.0 13.0 57.4 59.5 3.7 2.9

Relaxo Footwears Neutral 481 - 577 1,019 1,208 11.0 10.8 44.9 53.1 10.7 9.1 2.6 2.0 27.2 25.0 0.7 0.6

Sintex Industries Buy 57 79 1,566 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.2 3.6 0.6 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.7 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 259 392 243 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 3.9 3.3 0.8 0.6 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4

SpiceJet Buy 32 40 1,564 5,647 6,513 3.5 6.5 1.9 4.9 16.6 6.6 39.1 5.6 - - 0.4 0.4

TVS Srichakra Buy 320 462 245 1,612 1,827 9.5 9.8 72.3 92.5 4.4 3.5 1.3 1.0 33.1 32.1 0.4 0.3

TAJ GVK Buy 60 108 379 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.6 6.6 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.6 1.3


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zOthers

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 307 420 473 757 875 19.0 19.1 63.5 72.9 4.8 4.2 0.7 0.6 16.1 16.1 0.2 0.1

United Spirits Accumulate 657 730 8,593 10,289 11,421 13.5 14.3 31.0 42.9 21.2 15.3 1.7 1.5 8.1 10.3 1.5 1.4

Vesuvius India Accumulate 369 413 749 628 716 16.4 16.5 29.8 34.4 12.4 10.7 2.2 1.9 18.8 18.6 1.0 0.8

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 14, 2012


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Market Outlook

Stock Watch


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June 15, 2012Market Outlook

Market Outlook 150612

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Transcript of Market Outlook 150612