Market Outlook, 12.03.13

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Market OutlookMarch 12, 2013

www.angelbroking.com


Dealers Diary

Indian markets are expected to open in the green tracking positive trade in the

major Asian Indices like Nikkei, Hangseng and Shanghai which are higher by 0.4%

to 0.6%. SGX Nifty too is currently trading higher by ~0.3%.

US markets which opened marginally lower during the opening trade, ended the

day higher after shrugging off some disappointing news from overseas, including

weaker than expected readings on Chinese industrial production and retail sales.

Lack of major U.S. economic news kept some traders on the sidelines, enabling the

upmove in the markets. However, European markets were mixed on Monday with

poor economic data from China and downgrade of Italian credit by Fitch resulted

in decline of some of the markets.

Meanwhile Indias Key benchmark indices fell marginally on Monday snapping the

four-day gaining streak. The EXIM data released on Monday indicated that the

countrys trade deficit had reduced in February, which is a positive for theeconomy. The markets would keenly observe the economic data to be released

pertaining to IIP and Inflation expected to be released during the week.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 19,668/ 5,948 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 19,733 19,820 / 5,966 5,989 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

19,668/ 5,948 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

19,581 19,516 / 5,925 5,907 levels.

Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 19,516 19,581 19,668 19,733 19,820

NIFTY 5,907 5,925 5,948 5,966 5,989

News Analysis

IPO Note REPCO HOME FINANCE Trade deficit cools down to USD14bn in February 2013 as exports pick up CDMA auction over: Sistema bids for eight circles

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (March 08, 2013)

` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 3,443 2,076 1,367 4,052 48,404

MFs 244 369 (125) (320) (5,882)

FII Derivatives (March 07, 2013)

` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 1,325 1,394 (68) 10,195

Stock Futures 1,361 980 381 25,691

Gainers / Losers

Gainers LosersCompany Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)Opto Circuits 59 7.3 Oracle Fin 2,748 (3.4)

Siemens 561 5.2 Max India 224 (3.3)

Indraprastha Gas 285 4.8 Gujarat Mnrl 174 (3.3)

Jain Irrigation 71 4.2 NHPC 20 (3.1)

Madras Cements 257 3.7 Neyveli Lignite 73 (2.9)

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex (0.2) (37.0) 19,646

Nifty (0.1) (3.4) 5,942

MID CAP 0.2 14.3 6,502

SMALL CAP 0.3 17.6 6,351

BSE HC 0.5 42.6 8,101

BSE PSU (0.1) (10.0) 6,986

BANKEX (0.2) (34.1) 13,945

AUTO (0.4) (48.7) 10,827

METAL (0.6) (53.2) 9,405

OIL & GAS (0.5) (40.6) 8,982

BSE IT (0.7) (47.0) 6,964

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones 0.3 50.2 14,447NASDAQ 0.3 8.5 3,253

FTSE 0.3 20.0 6,504

Nikkei 0.5 65.4 12,349

Hang Seng (0.0) (1.1) 23,091

Straits Times 0.1 3.4 3,293

Shanghai Com (0.3) (7.8) 2,311

Indian ADR Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)INFY (1.3) (0.7) $54.4

WIT 0.0 0.0 $10.1IBN 0.6 0.3 $45.2

HDB (0.1) (0.0) $40.3

Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 1,395 733

Declines 1,474 762

Unchanged 134 93

Volumes (` cr)BSE 1,908

NSE 10,115

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IPO Note REPCO HOME FINANCE

Operates in attractive loan segment - Priority sector home loans: RHFL is largelyfocused on providing home loans in tier-II and tier-III cities (with a sub-`10lakh

average loan ticket size), due to which a large part of its book qualifies as priority

sector lending (PSL) for banks. In our view, NBFCs operating in PSL segments enjoycompetitive advantages, as most banks (especially in the private sector) have a

perennial shortage in meeting their PSL targets, creating favorable demand-supply

dynamics for those NBFCs that can source higher-yielding PSL loans at reasonable

asset quality.

REPCOs loan book profile also allows it to procure 44% of its total borrowing via

low-cost NHB refinance averaging about 7.5-8% (NHB refinance is available

under various schemes, primarily for rural loans upto `15lakh and also for low

cost urban housing loans up to `10lakhs). Moreover, the funding that it gets from

banks in turn largely qualifies as PSL for the banks (loans by banks to NBFCs,

which are on-lent as home loans less than`

10lakhs qualify as PSL). This makes itattractive for banks to lend to RHFL at a reasonable cost (about 100bps above

base rate), as against alternatives such as parking funds under RIDF at extremely

low yields, to meet their PSL targets. Relatively low-cost NHB and bank funding

enables it to maintain healthy margins and return ratios (NIMs at 3.8% and RoE at

22.2% in 1HFY2013, calculated on an annualized basis)

In terms of borrower profile, around 53% of RHFLs outstanding loan book

constituted loans to relatively higher-yielding higher-risk non-salaried segment. To

mitigate risks, the company, lends at a low LTV of about 65%, as per the

management. In terms of geographical presence, 67% and 98% of its business is

concentrated in Tamil Nadu and South India, respectively, largely in tier-II and tier-

III cities.

Management expects strong growth to continue: Over FY2008-12, the companygrew its loan book at a CAGR of 43.8% (albeit on a small base) to `2,802cr,

driving PAT CAGR of 43.3%. As of September 30, 2012, its CRAR stood at a

comfortable 15.9% (entirely tier-I). Further, IPO proceeds would increase its capital

base by nearly 0.9x, providing enough headroom for maintaining strong loan

growth for the next few years as well. Funding mix is also expected to remain

stable (In FY2014 NHB refinance facility for Rural housing fund increased by 50%

to `6,000cr; bank demand for PSL opportunities is also expected to remain strong

and future outlook is favorable, in our view, given governments priority sector

focus).

Outlook & Valuation: RHFL generated 22.2% RoE in 1HFY2013E and would tradeat 1.8x FY2013E ABV (at the upper end of its price band, based on post-issue

networth). Closest comparable peer - Gruh HF (mainly western India, rural and

semi-urban focus, largely PSL qualifying home loans) appears extremely expensive

at valuations of 7.3x FY2013E BV, notwithstanding its ~30% earnings growth

trajectory and ~35% ROEs (FY2013E). Other NBFCs like Mahindra Finance and

Shriram Transport Finance operating in different priority sector segments to a

varying degree and generating similar return ratios, are trading at 2.6x and 2.3x

FY2013E ABV, respectively (but they have larger, relatively more seasoned loan

books and longer proven track record). Overall, keeping in mind RHFLs attractive

niche loan segment, strong growth prospects and reasonable valuations, werecommend subscribe to the issue at the upper band.

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Trade deficit cools down to USD14bn in February 2013 as

exports pick up

Indias exports gained traction in February 2013 and reported growth for the

second straight month at 4.2% yoy (USD26.3bn) as compared to marginal 0.8%

yoy growth in January 2013 signaling an improvement in external demand.Moreover, growth in imports during the month decelerated to 2.6% yoy

(USD41.2bn) as against 6.1% yoy in January 2013. On account of the positive

trend in both imports as well as exports, the trade deficit narrowed to USD14.9bn,

the lowest in 10 months, from USD20bn in the previous month and USD15.3bn in

February 2012. Oil imports reported 15.5% yoy growth (as against a steep 44.6%

yoy growth in February 2012) while non oil imports reported a 3.9% yoy

contraction (as against 13.2% yoy growth in February 2012).

On a cumulative basis, exports in the April February 2013 period contracted by

4.0% yoy in USD terms while import growth during the period remain flat to a

large extent. The trade deficit in April February 2013 period, came atUSD182.1bn as compared to USD169.8bn in the corresponding period of the

previous year widening by 7.2%.

Surging trade deficit at 11.7% of GDP in 2QFY2013 is the primary reason for a

record-high current account deficit at 5.4% of GDP in 2QFY2013. As the trade

deficit widens, the possibility of CAD reaching a record-high (nearing 5% of GDP)

for FY2013 as a whole cannot be ruled out. We believe that the Foreign Trade

Policy likely to be announced by the end of the month, would aim to enhance

export competitiveness by giving some sops to exporters particularly in the

manufacturing industry.

CDMA auction over: Sistema bids for eight circles

The second round of CDMA auction has completed. CDMA operator Sistema

Shyam Teleservices (SSTL) has bid for eight circles in the auction. However, a detail

of which circles the company has bid is yet to be disclosed. SSTL, which is majority

owned by Russian conglomerate Sistema, was the lone bidder for this round of

auction. According to its application, SSTL intended to acquire 3.75MHz of

spectrum each in 11 telecom zones in the 800MHz band. The government had, in

November, failed to get any bidder for the 800MHz spectrum and then it had

reduced the reserve price by 50%. The government has offered 76.25MHz of

spectrum in the 800MHz band across the country. SSTL, which had lost its license

in 21 circles due to a Supreme Court order in February 2012, had not bid in

November. SSTL has already closed operations in 10 circles, and it is expected to

bid for Delhi, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Kolkata, Maharashtra, Mumbai, Tamil

Nadu, UP (East), UP (West) and West Bengal. As per media reports, there have

been no bids for Mumbai, Maharashtra and UP (East). SSTL had deposited

`613.75cr for the auction, which made it eligible to bid for minimum quantum of

2.5MHz spectrum (two blocks of 1.25MHz airwaves frequency) in 11 circles.

However, the company bid for only eight circles, which means it may curtail

operations in three more circles. We maintain our Neutral rating on the overall

telecom sector.

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Economic and Political News

Animal spirits shouldn't create maneaters: Jairam India will grow at 6% next year: World Bank `2,800cr free laptop scheme rolls out in UPCorporate News

GVK, Aurizon to develop Oz basin infrastructure Mahindra bets on maiden e-car launch Viacom to buy TV18's residual stake in ETV's regional play ONGC-led consortium to study feasibility of M'lore LNG terminalSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

March 12, 2013 3:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jan (1.70) --

11:00AM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Jan (0.60) --

March 14, 2013 6:00PM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Feb 0.20 0.70

12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Feb 6.62 --

March 15, 2013 3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Feb 2.00 --

6:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Feb -- 0.50

6:45PM US Industrial Production % Feb (0.10) 0.30

March 19, 2013 6:00PM US Housing Starts Thousands Feb 890.00 --

6:00PM US Building permits Thousands Feb 904.00 --

3:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Feb 2.70 --

11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Mar 19 7.75 --

11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Mar 19 4.00 --

11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Mar 19 6.75 --

March 20, 2013 8:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Mar A (23.60) --

3:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Feb (12.50) --

10:00PM US FOMC rate decision % Mar 20 0.25 --

March 21, 2013 2:00PM Germany PMI Services Value Mar A 54.70 --

2:00PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Mar A 50.30 --

7:30PM US Existing home sales Millions Feb 4.92 --

March 26, 2013 7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Mar 69.60 --

7:30PM US New home sales Thousands Feb 437.00 --

March 27, 2013 3:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 4Q F 0.30 --

March 28, 2013 2:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Mar (3.00) --

6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 4Q T 0.10 --April 1, 2013 6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Mar 50.10 --

April 2, 2013 2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Mar 47.90 --

April 15, 2013 7:30AM China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 1Q 7.90 --

May 15, 2013 2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 1Q A (0.60) --

11:30AM Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change 1Q P 0.10 --

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

March 12, 2013

Market Outlook

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Macro watch

Exhibit 1:Quarterly GDP trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:IIP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3:Monthly WPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4:Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5:Exports and imports growth trends

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 6:Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

5.7

9.0

7.5

11.2

8.5

7.68.2

9.2

7.5

6.56.0

5.3 5.5 5.34.5

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(%)

1.0

4.3

2.5 2.0

8.3

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc-1

2

No-1

2

Dec-1

2

(%)

7.6 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.58.0 8.1

7.3 7.2 7.26.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Feb

-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc-1

2

No-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

(%)

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

Ma-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

No-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

(30.0)

(15.0)

0.0

15.0

30.0

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc-1

2

No-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

7.75

6.75

4.00

3.50

4.50

5.50

6.50

7.50

8.50

9.50

Mar-12

Apr-12

Ma-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc-1

2

No-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)

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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 125 - 2,432 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 17.9 15.4 3.8 3.2 22.6 22.5 1.6 1.4

United Phosphorus Buy 128 170 5,670 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 8.5 7.5 1.2 1.1 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 281 323 4,803 2,983 3,477 16.1 16.1 18.5 21.6 15.2 13.0 4.4 3.4 32.9 29.1 1.5 1.4

Apollo Tyres Accumulate 89 97 4,481 13,066 14,503 11.5 11.8 13.0 14.5 6.8 6.2 1.3 1.1 21.0 19.4 0.5 0.5

Ashok Leyland Buy 24 28 6,279 12,910 14,836 8.8 9.6 1.5 2.2 15.9 10.6 2.1 1.9 9.3 13.4 0.6 0.5

Automotive Axle# Neutral 290 - 438 934 1,103 10.2 10.7 24.5 34.3 11.8 8.4 1.5 1.4 13.2 16.9 0.5 0.4Bajaj Auto Neutral 1,986 - 57,465 20,775 23,889 18.5 19.0 107.6 126.4 18.5 15.7 7.6 6.0 45.8 42.8 2.4 2.0

Bharat Forge Neutral 232 - 5,397 5,973 6,707 14.4 15.2 13.4 18.6 17.4 12.5 2.3 2.0 13.6 16.9 1.1 0.9

Bosch India* Accumulate 8,428 8,889 26,462 9,717 11,092 16.2 17.0 354.7 423.3 23.8 19.9 4.1 3.5 17.2 17.5 2.4 2.0

CEAT Buy 97 163 333 4,822 5,403 8.2 8.3 29.8 40.8 3.3 2.4 0.4 0.4 14.5 17.0 0.3 0.2

Exide Industries Neutral 128 - 10,884 6,016 7,026 12.7 14.4 5.8 7.8 21.9 16.3 3.2 2.8 15.4 18.2 1.5 1.2

FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,548 - 2,572 1,619 1,879 16.0 16.6 108.6 130.7 14.3 11.8 2.5 2.1 18.8 19.1 1.3 1.1

Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,699 1,923 33,930 23,990 27,038 13.8 14.6 105.8 120.2 16.1 14.1 6.5 5.2 44.3 41.0 1.1 1.0

JK Tyre Buy 105 165 432 7,169 7,929 6.9 7.1 40.4 41.3 2.6 2.6 0.5 0.4 20.5 18.0 0.4 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 912 1,019 56,013 40,060 46,301 11.5 11.7 55.3 64.3 16.5 14.2 3.7 3.1 24.5 23.8 1.1 0.9

Maruti Accumulate 1,419 1,563 41,001 43,381 52,411 7.5 8.9 65.6 97.7 21.6 14.5 2.4 2.1 11.8 15.6 0.8 0.6

Motherson Sumi Accumulate 195 209 11,437 25,769 29,010 7.1 7.5 10.2 13.1 19.1 14.9 4.8 3.8 28.1 28.3 0.6 0.5

Subros Buy 26 35 155 1,296 1,476 9.8 9.9 3.4 5.0 7.7 5.1 0.5 0.5 7.2 10.2 0.4 0.4

Tata Motors Accumulate 301 326 80,339 184,201 209,642 12.4 13.5 28.0 36.3 10.8 8.3 2.4 1.9 24.6 25.4 0.5 0.4

TVS Motor Buy 40 47 1,896 7,019 7,827 6.0 6.3 4.3 5.3 9.4 7.6 1.5 1.3 16.4 18.0 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 622 487 13,175 8,073 9,052 5.5 7.2 11.3 17.4 55.2 35.8 4.8 4.3 8.9 12.8 1.5 1.4BGR Energy Neutral 213 - 1,539 3,412 4,104 13.0 11.6 24.6 26.2 8.7 8.2 1.2 1.1 30.7 25.7 0.8 0.7

BHEL Neutral 205 - 50,274 47,801 43,757 18.0 17.1 24.1 20.8 8.5 9.9 2.5 2.2 32.9 23.6 0.9 1.0

Blue Star Buy 181 238 1,629 2,748 2,896 4.4 5.6 6.8 9.3 26.7 19.5 3.7 3.2 14.5 17.6 0.6 0.6

Crompton Greaves Buy 100 129 6,383 12,136 13,790 3.8 6.3 3.3 6.9 30.1 14.5 1.7 1.6 5.8 11.5 0.6 0.5

Jyoti Structures Buy 33 49 273 2,802 3,074 9.5 9.8 7.7 10.9 4.3 3.1 0.4 0.3 9.6 12.1 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 54 75 1,387 6,909 7,723 6.2 7.2 5.4 8.4 10.1 6.4 1.2 1.0 17.0 22.8 0.3 0.3

LMW Neutral 2,044 - 2,302 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 14.3 12.3 2.4 2.2 17.4 18.4 0.5 0.3

Thermax Neutral 587 - 6,992 5,529 5,798 9.0 9.6 27.1 30.3 21.6 19.4 3.8 3.3 18.6 18.2 1.1 1.0


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

March 12, 2013

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Cement

ACC Neutral 1,266 - 23,777 11,358 12,366 19.9 19.6 75.1 74.9 16.9 16.9 3.2 2.9 19.4 18.1 1.8 1.6

Ambuja Cements Neutral 187 - 28,906 9,730 11,221 25.6 25.0 10.2 11.3 18.3 16.5 3.3 3.0 18.7 19.0 2.6 2.2

India Cements Neutral 86 - 2,636 4,439 4,789 16.7 17.2 6.8 9.1 12.6 9.5 0.7 0.7 6.0 7.7 1.0 0.9

J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 121 143 1,420 2,119 2,478 22.9 22.3 20.3 22.8 5.9 5.3 1.0 0.9 18.0 17.7 0.8 1.1

Madras Cements Neutral 256 - 6,097 3,960 4,270 27.4 27.0 18.6 21.1 13.8 12.2 2.5 2.1 19.7 18.9 2.1 1.8

Shree Cement^ Neutral 4,343 - 15,128 5,678 6,251 29.0 28.6 288.1 334.0 15.1 13.0 4.2 3.3 31.7 28.4 2.1 1.7

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,893 - 51,911 20,466 23,017 23.3 24.3 100.0 117.1 18.9 16.2 3.4 2.9 19.6 19.5 2.5 2.3Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 202 268 1,065 20,466 23,017 22.5 22.5 24.4 27.0 8.3 7.5 1.0 0.9 12.3 12.1 0.2 0.2

Consolidated Co Neutral 11 - 203 2,262 2,522 5.9 6.3 0.9 1.6 12.0 7.1 0.3 0.3 2.7 4.6 0.4 0.4

IRB Infra Buy 122 164 4,042 3,843 4,212 43.1 43.6 16.8 17.8 7.2 6.8 1.2 1.1 18.3 17.0 3.2 3.4

ITNL Accumulate 200 225 3,890 6,564 7,054 27.2 27.4 26.3 29.0 7.6 6.9 1.2 1.1 17.0 16.3 2.7 2.8

IVRCL Infra Buy 26 35 787 3,773 6,706 6.9 8.4 (3.9) 2.9 (6.6) 8.9 0.4 0.4 (5.4) 4.1 0.9 0.6

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 77 97 17,176 14,243 16,382 26.2 26.1 3.2 4.3 24.1 17.9 1.3 1.2 5.4 7.0 2.6 2.4

Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,506 1,788 92,665 60,666 69,525 10.6 11.2 71.9 85.0 21.0 17.7 3.3 2.9 14.5 15.2 1.7 1.5

Nagarjuna Const. Buy 39 44 1,001 5,863 6,576 8.1 8.2 3.1 4.1 12.7 9.5 0.4 0.4 3.2 4.2 0.6 0.5

Punj Lloyd Neutral 46 - 1,534 11,892 13,116 10.2 10.2 (0.4) 3.0 (108.4) 15.6 0.5 0.5 3.8 0.5 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 113 157 1,698 1,642 2,642 9.7 10.1 3.2 7.2 35.1 15.6 2.0 1.8 6.0 12.1 1.3 0.8

Simplex Infra Buy 146 197 724 6,026 7,135 9.1 9.3 14.1 24.6 10.4 6.0 0.6 0.5 5.6 9.2 0.5 0.5

Unity Infra Buy 33 58 242 2,180 2,455 13.7 13.4 12.9 14.8 2.5 2.2 0.3 0.3 12.1 12.5 0.5 0.5

Financials

Allahabad Bank Accumulate 144 160 7,210 6,509 7,264 2.7 2.8 28.2 33.5 5.1 4.3 0.7 0.6 13.8 14.7 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 102 - 5,688 4,795 5,475 3.0 3.0 21.8 21.9 4.7 4.7 0.8 0.7 15.4 13.8 - -Axis Bank Buy 1,399 1,678 65,384 15,959 18,660 3.2 3.2 119.2 139.0 11.7 10.1 2.2 1.9 20.3 20.1 - -

Bank of Baroda Buy 740 850 30,425 14,889 17,393 2.5 2.6 108.2 134.0 6.8 5.5 1.0 0.9 15.3 16.7 - -

Bank of India Accumulate 323 350 18,539 12,793 14,823 2.3 2.4 49.5 65.1 6.5 5.0 0.9 0.8 13.6 16.0 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 53 - 3,113 3,720 4,268 2.9 2.8 10.9 13.0 4.9 4.1 0.7 0.6 16.2 16.9 - -

Canara Bank Accumulate 436 463 19,333 10,783 12,000 2.1 2.3 64.8 82.2 6.7 5.3 0.9 0.8 13.2 15.0 - -

Central Bank Neutral 74 - 5,436 7,158 8,217 2.4 2.6 13.1 20.1 5.6 3.7 0.8 0.7 10.3 14.3 - -

Corporation Bank Buy 404 465 5,984 4,919 5,634 2.1 2.2 96.7 99.9 4.2 4.0 0.7 0.6 16.3 14.9 - -

Dena Bank Accumulate 97 107 3,397 3,090 3,462 2.7 2.7 25.6 24.6 3.8 4.0 0.7 0.6 19.2 15.9 - -


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Financials

Federal Bank Accumulate 496 536 8,482 2,667 2,920 3.2 3.2 49.1 51.4 10.1 9.7 1.3 1.2 13.9 13.1 - -

HDFC Neutral 829 - 127,992 7,446 8,923 3.5 3.5 32.2 38.5 25.8 21.5 5.3 4.7 35.4 32.6 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 656 - 155,688 21,724 26,578 4.3 4.3 28.7 36.1 22.9 18.2 4.4 3.7 20.7 22.1 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 1,130 1,302 129,959 22,317 26,217 2.9 3.0 72.0 84.6 15.7 13.4 2.0 1.8 14.9 15.9 - -

IDBI Bank Buy 93 106 11,838 8,196 9,305 1.9 2.1 15.4 22.3 6.0 4.2 0.6 0.6 10.7 14.1 - -

Indian Bank Buy 177 208 7,600 5,716 6,362 3.2 3.2 37.7 41.1 4.7 4.3 0.8 0.7 16.9 16.2 - -

IOB Accumulate 75 85 5,962 7,231 8,369 2.4 2.5 10.2 20.2 7.3 3.7 0.6 0.5 7.4 13.4 - -J & K Bank Accumulate 1,278 1,406 6,194 2,784 2,932 3.7 3.7 229.2 199.6 5.6 6.4 1.3 1.1 24.6 18.2 - -

LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 245 257 12,384 1,722 2,080 2.2 2.2 19.9 24.6 12.3 10.0 1.9 1.7 16.6 17.9 - -

Oriental Bank Accumulate 288 314 8,413 6,360 7,004 2.6 2.8 48.1 59.4 6.0 4.9 0.7 0.6 12.1 13.5 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 814 957 27,597 19,202 22,040 3.2 3.4 146.8 167.9 5.5 4.9 1.0 0.9 17.6 17.5 - -

South Ind.Bank Buy 25 30 3,346 1,583 1,789 3.0 2.9 3.5 4.1 7.2 6.2 1.2 1.0 19.1 17.7 - -

St Bk of India Buy 2,205 2,514 147,979 60,594 70,439 3.3 3.3 221.9 257.4 9.9 8.6 1.7 1.4 17.4 17.7 - -

Syndicate Bank Accumulate 125 135 7,512 6,673 7,644 2.9 3.0 32.0 27.9 3.9 4.5 0.8 0.7 22.0 16.5 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 63 - 4,168 5,388 6,262 2.4 2.6 9.0 14.9 7.0 4.2 0.9 0.8 9.1 13.8 - -

Union Bank Accumulate 236 256 12,990 10,006 11,558 2.8 2.8 36.4 47.0 6.5 5.0 0.9 0.8 14.6 16.6 - -

United Bank Buy 65 75 2,328 3,549 3,814 2.5 2.7 12.0 21.4 5.4 3.0 0.6 0.5 10.1 16.3 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 53 - 2,602 2,342 2,763 1.9 2.1 8.0 10.9 6.6 4.8 0.7 0.6 10.1 12.6 - -

Yes Bank Accumulate 494 526 17,694 3,364 4,260 2.8 3.0 36.3 42.6 13.6 11.6 3.0 2.5 24.6 23.6 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 4,760 - 45,660 11,198 13,319 15.9 15.7 122.1 147.1 39.0 32.4 13.2 10.3 37.7 35.7 3.9 3.2

Britannia Accumulate 536 564 6,405 5,580 6,417 4.8 5.0 18.1 21.7 29.6 24.7 10.7 8.6 38.7 38.7 1.0 0.9

Colgate Neutral 1,315 - 17,885 3,120 3,588 20.3 21.1 38.4 45.1 34.3 29.2 31.8 25.5 104.6 97.0 5.6 4.8

Dabur India Neutral 134 - 23,303 6,196 7,183 16.3 16.8 4.5 5.5 29.7 24.4 12.3 9.5 43.4 44.0 3.8 3.2

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 4,280 - 17,999 3,084 3,617 15.2 16.3 103.9 123.0 41.2 34.8 13.2 10.9 34.9 34.3 5.2 4.5

Godrej Consumer Neutral 807 - 27,456 6,386 7,743 15.7 17.0 20.8 27.1 38.8 29.8 8.3 6.8 23.7 26.4 4.4 3.6

HUL Neutral 439 - 94,915 25,350 28,974 13.3 13.5 15.1 17.0 29.1 25.9 23.1 16.5 85.7 74.3 3.5 3.0

ITC Neutral 297 - 234,399 29,148 34,191 35.7 36.1 9.4 11.1 31.7 26.8 10.6 8.7 35.9 35.7 7.6 6.4

Marico Neutral 216 - 13,949 4,747 5,402 13.6 13.6 6.3 7.8 34.1 27.7 7.0 5.7 26.0 22.6 3.0 2.5

Nestle* Neutral 4,729 - 45,594 8,302 9,739 22.0 21.5 110.7 130.8 42.7 36.2 25.4 18.2 69.5 58.6 5.5 4.6


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FMCG

Tata Global Accumulate 133 145 8,209 7,272 7,998 9.1 9.9 6.9 8.1 19.4 16.5 2.0 2.0 8.9 9.7 1.0 0.9

IT

HCL Tech^ Neutral 784 - 54,462 25,325 28,476 21.7 20.7 51.0 52.8 15.4 14.9 4.1 3.4 26.8 22.9 2.0 1.7

Hexaware* Buy 93 113 2,760 1,948 2,136 20.9 18.3 10.9 10.1 8.5 9.2 2.3 1.9 27.2 21.0 1.1 0.9

Infosys Reduce 2,946 2,850 169,156 40,746 44,283 28.9 28.8 162.6 172.9 18.1 17.0 4.3 3.6 23.5 21.3 3.6 3.2

Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 171 184 1,913 1,881 1,987 17.9 17.4 18.5 19.4 9.3 8.8 1.4 1.2 14.8 13.6 0.7 0.6

KPIT Cummins Buy 107 134 2,059 2,234 2,477 15.8 15.2 10.9 12.8 9.8 8.4 2.1 1.7 22.2 20.6 0.9 0.7Mahindra Satyam Neutral 129 - 15,179 7,711 8,683 21.6 20.3 8.7 11.3 14.8 11.4 3.5 2.7 30.6 23.7 1.5 1.2

Mindtree Neutral 881 - 3,661 2,357 2,580 21.0 19.3 84.4 86.8 10.5 10.2 2.8 2.2 26.8 21.7 1.3 1.1

Mphasis& Neutral 403 - 8,471 5,531 5,874 17.6 17.5 35.4 37.7 11.4 10.7 1.7 1.5 14.7 13.5 1.0 0.8

NIIT Buy 24 36 395 1,048 1,161 9.1 10.9 4.1 6.2 5.8 3.9 0.6 0.6 10.3 14.1 0.2 0.1

Persistent Neutral 576 - 2,305 1,297 1,433 25.6 24.1 46.5 54.0 12.4 10.7 2.3 1.9 18.5 18.0 1.4 1.2

TCS Reduce 1,568 1,465 306,804 62,954 70,871 29.0 28.9 71.6 79.1 21.9 19.8 7.3 5.9 33.2 29.7 4.7 4.1

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 1,109 1,205 14,195 6,789 7,609 21.0 19.6 95.8 110.7 11.6 10.0 2.8 2.2 24.3 22.3 2.1 1.8

Wipro Neutral 439 - 108,130 43,514 47,304 20.1 19.4 26.6 27.7 16.5 15.9 3.2 2.8 19.7 17.9 2.2 1.9

Media

D B Corp Buy 242 276 4,432 1,583 1,787 23.9 25.4 11.9 14.5 20.4 16.6 4.0 3.5 21.4 22.4 2.7 2.3

HT Media Accumulate 104 113 2,434 2,061 2,205 14.0 15.1 6.6 7.9 15.6 13.2 1.5 1.4 10.3 11.0 0.8 0.7

Jagran Prakashan Buy 99 125 3,134 1,511 1,698 23.2 23.4 6.4 7.3 15.4 13.6 3.8 3.4 25.9 26.6 2.3 1.9

PVR Neutral 289 - 837 820 1,307 17.3 17.3 11.2 17.8 25.9 16.2 1.2 1.1 9.7 10.8 1.1 0.7

Sun TV Network Neutral 424 - 16,715 1,942 2,237 77.2 75.5 17.6 19.1 24.1 22.2 5.8 5.2 25.8 25.2 8.2 7.1

Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 464 - 10,500 10,746 13,982 30.8 31.1 43.3 55.5 10.7 8.4 1.1 1.0 11.4 12.6 3.1 2.4Coal India Buy 320 368 202,250 66,666 70,292 25.7 27.3 24.2 26.6 13.2 12.0 3.9 3.2 33.1 29.1 2.0 1.8

Electrosteel Castings Buy 20 28 680 1,984 2,074 10.6 11.6 1.8 2.6 11.2 7.6 0.4 0.1 3.6 5.1 0.5 0.4

Hind. Zinc Buy 120 149 50,598 12,002 13,759 49.7 50.8 14.7 16.4 8.1 7.3 1.6 1.3 21.1 19.8 2.3 1.6

Hindalco Neutral 101 - 19,280 80,205 88,987 9.0 9.2 13.4 13.8 7.5 7.3 0.6 0.5 7.9 7.6 0.6 0.6

JSW Steel Neutral 726 - 16,195 39,072 40,493 16.5 18.2 82.4 90.3 8.8 8.0 0.9 0.8 10.7 10.7 0.8 0.8

MOIL Neutral 240 - 4,035 933 954 46.9 45.5 25.8 26.1 9.3 9.2 1.5 1.3 16.7 15.1 1.8 1.6

Monnet Ispat Buy 240 318 1,530 2,287 2,883 21.8 21.8 35.3 40.7 6.8 5.9 0.6 0.6 9.6 10.2 1.9 1.4

Nalco Accumulate 45 46 11,675 6,630 8,357 11.4 14.5 2.1 3.3 21.3 13.9 1.0 1.0 4.6 6.9 1.0 0.9

NMDC Buy 145 181 57,469 9,674 11,536 75.2 76.6 16.0 18.6 9.1 7.8 2.0 1.7 23.6 23.0 3.8 3.0


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Metals & Mining

SAIL Neutral 70 - 29,100 43,438 56,199 12.0 12.2 6.5 8.5 10.8 8.3 0.7 0.7 6.6 8.2 0.9 0.7

Sesa Goa Accumulate 166 183 14,466 2,412 3,911 30.8 33.1 29.6 31.8 5.6 5.2 0.9 0.8 16.3 15.4 7.4 4.6

Sterlite Inds Accumulate 100 110 33,623 43,185 45,442 23.3 23.7 16.8 17.9 6.0 5.6 0.7 0.6 11.6 11.2 0.8 0.7

Tata Steel Buy 359 443 34,886 142,732 146,575 7.4 9.9 7.2 34.7 50.0 10.4 0.8 0.8 1.6 7.5 0.5 0.5

Sarda Buy 113 148 407 1,442 1,494 19.0 19.1 29.2 31.7 3.9 3.6 0.5 0.4 12.3 12.0 0.6 0.6

Prakash Industries Buy 36 52 481 2,512 2,816 12.4 13.7 10.0 12.6 3.6 2.8 0.2 0.2 7.2 8.4 0.5 0.4

Godawari Power andIspat Buy 92 112 293 2,367 2,425 14.2 13.7 33.3 33.5 2.8 2.8 0.3 0.3 12.9 11.2 0.6 0.5

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Buy 308 383 58,786 17,394 17,034 76.4 72.3 60.8 55.1 5.1 5.6 1.0 0.9 21.9 17.0 2.4 2.1

GAIL Neutral 345 - 43,750 48,077 55,815 15.3 15.3 34.9 35.9 9.9 9.6 1.8 1.5 19.0 17.0 0.6 0.5

ONGC Accumulate 324 357 277,540 144,089 158,065 32.8 34.7 28.7 34.4 11.3 9.4 1.8 1.6 17.0 18.3 1.6 1.4

Reliance Industries Neutral 844 - 272,386 362,700 380,031 8.9 8.9 68.1 71.5 12.4 11.8 1.3 1.2 12.4 11.8 0.7 0.7

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 274 - 3,510 3,707 3,850 11.7 12.4 23.7 25.7 11.6 10.7 3.2 2.8 29.6 28.2 0.8 0.7

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 285 - 3,994 3,365 3,700 22.8 23.4 25.3 26.6 11.3 10.7 2.7 2.2 26.0 22.6 1.2 1.1

Petronet LNG Buy 148 179 11,104 32,210 41,362 6.1 5.8 15.4 15.6 9.6 9.5 2.5 2.1 29.1 24.1 0.4 0.3

Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

Neutral 67 - 3,776 1,079 983 91.8 91.9 8.8 7.8 7.7 8.6 1.3 1.2 17.8 14.1 3.3 3.6

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Neutral 109 - 2,050 1,490 1,714 16.2 17.1 7.4 9.5 14.7 11.5 4.0 3.1 30.7 30.2 1.3 1.1

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 167 208 4,866 5,463 6,279 15.0 15.0 12.4 14.0 13.5 11.9 1.7 1.5 18.8 17.8 1.5 1.3

Aventis* Neutral 2,402 - 5,532 1,482 1,682 17.5 16.6 82.9 87.8 29.0 27.4 4.5 3.7 16.3 14.8 3.5 3.0

Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 750 817 15,352 6,148 7,386 15.3 18.0 24.6 39.5 30.5 19.0 5.7 4.6 18.4 25.1 2.8 2.3

Cipla Accumulate 391 419 31,418 8,151 9,130 25.8 24.8 20.2 21.6 19.4 18.1 3.5 3.0 19.4 17.6 3.6 3.1

Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,814 - 30,803 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 21.7 19.5 4.5 3.7 22.4 20.8 3.2 2.8

Dishman Pharma Buy 74 155 600 1,280 1,536 20.2 20.2 12.1 15.5 6.1 4.8 0.6 0.5 10.0 11.6 1.2 1.0

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,125 - 17,996 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 28.0 25.8 8.1 7.2 20.1 26.3 5.9 5.1

Indoco Remedies Buy 65 78 598 642 784 14.2 15.2 5.7 7.8 11.4 8.3 1.4 1.2 12.9 16.4 1.1 1.0

Ipca labs Accumulate 512 559 6,458 2,850 3,474 21.0 21.0 29.9 37.3 17.1 13.7 4.1 3.2 26.7 26.4 2.4 2.0

Lupin Accumulate 601 655 26,879 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 26.1 31.1 23.0 19.3 5.3 4.3 25.8 24.7 3.3 2.7

Ranbaxy* Neutral 408 - 17,244 12,253 11,400 14.1 12.5 31.2 21.6 13.1 18.9 4.2 3.6 37.9 20.6 1.3 1.4

Sun Pharma Neutral 833 - 86,120 10,111 12,563 42.6 42.6 28.9 29.8 28.8 28.0 5.9 5.0 22.3 19.2 7.6 6.0

Power

GIPCL Accumulate 74 78 1,124 1,502 1,535 32.1 31.9 11.4 12.5 6.5 5.9 0.7 0.7 7.6 11.9 1.2 1.0


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Power

NTPC Accumulate 149 163 123,187 72,809 81,951 23.4 24.1 12.2 13.6 12.3 11.0 1.5 1.4 12.2 12.5 2.3 2.2

Real Estate

DLF Neutral 286 - 48,532 7,953 9,699 34.7 37.0 4.4 6.0 65.4 47.9 1.9 1.8 3.1 3.8 8.1 6.3

MLIFE Accumulate 405 446 1,653 786 888 26.3 26.7 31.0 36.3 13.0 11.2 1.3 1.2 10.1 10.8 2.4 2.1

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Accumulate 322 350 122,299 80,521 87,160 30.5 30.5 6.4 10.4 50.4 31.0 2.3 2.2 4.6 7.0 2.4 2.1

Idea Cellular Neutral 118 - 39,017 22,087 23,927 26.6 27.7 2.9 3.9 40.3 30.2 2.8 2.5 6.9 8.4 2.3 2.1Rcom Neutral 65 - 13,499 21,087 22,067 31.8 31.9 2.6 4.0 24.9 16.3 0.4 0.4 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.1

zOthers

Abbott India Buy 1,396 1,634 2,966 1,926 2,152 13.1 13.5 79.0 90.8 17.7 15.4 3.9 3.2 23.7 22.8 1.3 1.1

Bajaj Electricals Buy 180 217 1,799 3,450 3,929 4.5 7.4 10.0 15.5 18.1 11.7 2.3 2.0 13.0 17.4 0.5 0.5

Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 447 495 566 460 596 16.4 16.2 34.7 45.0 12.9 9.9 3.2 2.5 27.7 27.8 1.3 1.1

Cravatex Buy 353 545 91 272 308 7.2 7.3 37.5 45.4 9.4 7.8 2.2 1.8 23.7 22.7 0.4 0.4

CRISIL Neutral 926 - 6,504 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 27.0 23.2 12.2 9.8 50.9 46.9 6.2 5.2

Finolex Cables Buy 48 61 737 2,268 2,559 9.5 10.0 9.0 10.1 5.4 4.8 0.8 0.7 14.8 14.6 0.2 0.2

Force Motors Buy 397 550 517 2,027 2,299 4.6 5.1 35.3 50.0 11.2 7.9 0.4 0.4 3.9 5.3 0.1 0.1

Goodyear India Accumulate 282 304 650 1,559 1,676 7.1 7.4 27.5 30.5 10.2 9.2 1.6 1.5 16.9 16.7 0.2 0.2

Greenply Industries Sell 392 309 947 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 13.3 8.9 2.2 1.8 16.8 21.0 0.8 0.6

Hitachi Neutral 130 - 359 905 1,025 4.8 6.0 7.7 12.4 17.0 10.5 1.6 1.4 9.9 14.4 0.5 0.4

Honeywell Automation* Accumulate 2,522 2,842 2,230 2,117 2,491 8.1 7.8 140.5 157.9 18.0 16.0 2.7 2.4 16.3 15.8 1.0 0.8

Styrolution ABS India* Buy 604 744 1,062 1,069 1,223 9.7 9.7 40.0 46.5 15.1 13.0 2.1 1.9 15.1 15.3 1.0 0.8

ITD Cementation Buy 176 239 203 1,455 1,630 12.0 12.1 23.2 31.2 7.6 5.7 0.5 0.4 6.5 8.1 0.6 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 166 - 2,679 816 979 14.5 14.9 5.2 6.0 32.2 27.6 3.7 3.4 8.8 10.2 3.5 2.8MCX Buy 979 1,440 4,993 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 15.7 13.6 4.3 3.7 27.5 27.4 6.4 5.2

MRF Accumulate 12,912 14,331 5,476 12,422 13,767 12.9 12.8 1,661.0 1,791.4 7.8 7.2 1.5 1.3 22.0 19.4 0.6 0.5

Page Industries Neutral 3,301 - 3,682 856 1,047 19.1 19.6 101.2 127.3 32.6 25.9 16.7 12.4 58.5 54.9 4.6 3.8

Relaxo Footwears Buy 645 887 774 989 1,148 10.7 11.7 41.8 55.5 15.5 11.6 3.5 2.7 25.5 26.3 0.9 0.8

Sintex Industries Buy 57 79 1,774 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.2 3.6 0.6 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.7 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 286 332 268 1,048 1,157 11.3 12.0 58.7 66.5 4.9 4.3 0.9 0.7 18.9 18.3 0.5 0.5

S. Kumars Nationwide Neutral 10 - 305 6,765 7,393 18.1 18.0 6.4 7.5 1.6 1.4 0.1 0.1 6.1 6.7 0.6 0.6

SpiceJet Buy 36 43 1,734 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 9.9 6.7 14.4 4.6 - - 0.4 0.3

TAJ GVK Buy 66 108 411 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 8.3 7.2 1.1 1.0 13.9 14.4 1.7 1.4


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zOthers

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 310 379 477 782 818 16.5 17.0 61.8 65.4 5.0 4.7 0.7 0.7 15.7 14.7 0.3 0.2

TTK Healthcare Buy 468 655 364 393 439 5.9 6.7 21.1 26.7 22.2 17.6 17.5 19.1 0.8 0.7

TVS Srichakra Buy 202 276 155 1,461 1,591 5.6 7.1 6.9 39.4 29.2 5.1 1.1 1.0 3.8 20.6 0.3 0.3

United Spirits Neutral 1,946 - 25,453 10,473 11,939 15.0 15.8 30.4 56.9 64.0 34.2 4.9 3.1 10.8 12.3 3.0 2.3

Vesuvius India Accumulate 337 355 684 591 623 17.5 17.2 29.0 29.6 11.6 11.4 1.8 1.6 16.0 14.5 0.9 0.8

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on March 11, 2013


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Market Outlook, 12.03.13

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Transcript of Market Outlook, 12.03.13