Market Outlook, 01-08-2013

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Market OutlookAugust 1, 2013

Dealers Diary

Indian markets are expected to open flat to positive tracking the positive opening in

SGX Nifty and most of the other Asian markets.

The US markets saw considerable volatility on Wednesday following the release of

the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement and ended the session mixed.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its bond-buying program

unchanged at US$85 billion a month and stated that the economy is expanding at

a modest pace. The investors will keep an eye over the upcoming reports due in

the week which includes weekly jobless claims, manufacturing activity, and

construction spending. Meanwhile, the European stock markets extended losses in

afternoon action on Wednesday, after data showed the U.S. economy grew at a

1.7% annual rate in the second quarter, beating the expectations.

Meanwhile, Indian shares recouped their early losses to end almost on a flat note

Wednesday. After sliding to as low as 61.21 in early trading, the rupee closed at

60.79 per dollar amid suspected RBI intervention. The mid-cap and small-cap

indices fell about a percent each on concerns over the rupee's continuous decline

and its impact on inflation and financial stability.

Markets TodayThe trend deciding level for the day is 19,287/ 5,723 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 19,447 19,547 / 5,771 5,800 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

19,287 / 5,723 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

19,186 19,026 / 5694 5,647 levels.

Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 19,026 19,186 19,287 19,447 19,547

NIFTY 5,647 5,694 5,723 5,771 5,800

News Analysis Yes Bank raises lending and deposit rates Result Review: Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, HCL Technologies, JSW Steel,

Motherson Sumi, Andhra Bank, Jagran, Dishman Pharma Result Preview: Idea, RCom, Bank of Baroda, GSK, Canara Bank, Union Bank,

JKBank, Tata GlobalRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (July 30, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 2,524 2,297 227 (6,086) 65,220

MFs 424 597 (173) (2,184) (14,362)

FII Derivatives (July 31, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 1,658 2,790 (1,132) 11,329

Stock Futures 2,651 2,658 (6) 25,657

Gainers / LosersGainers Losers

Company Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)Reliance Comm 140 10.1 Strides Arco 589 (13.0)

Sun TV Network 407 9.2 Essar Oil 52 (10.0)

Idea Cellular 169 7.9 JPINFRATEC 18 (9.3)

Bharti Airtel 345 7.3 JPPOWER 10 (8.2)

Union Bank 133 7.1 Havells India 608 (7.9)

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex (0.0) (3) 19,346

Nifty (0.2) (13) 5,742

MID CAP (0.9) (49) 5,543

SMALL CAP (0.9) (50) 5,311

BSE HC 0.3 28 9,074

BSE PSU 0.5 29 5,450

BANKEX (1.8) (215) 11,441

AUTO 1.0 100 10,569

METAL 2.4 161 6,882

OIL & GAS 1.9 158 8,579

BSE IT 1.3 95 7,458

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones (0.1) (21) 15,500NASDAQ 0.3 10 3,626

FTSE 0.8 50 6,621

Nikkei (1.5) (202) 13,668

Hang Sang (0.3) (70) 21,884

Straits Times (0.7) (24) 3,222

Shanghai Com 0.2 4 1,994

Indian ADR Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)INFY (0.0) (0.0) $49.7

WIT 1.9 0.2 $8.6IBN (0.5) (0.2) $32.8

HDB (1.3) (0.4) $32.9

Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 797 439

Declines 1,434 876

Unchanged 140 70

Volumes (` cr)BSE 2,373

NSE 14,580

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Yes Bank raises lending and deposit rates

Yes bank yesterday revised interest rates upwards, with deposits rates across select

tenors hiked by 25 to 50bp and lending base rate increased by 25bp to 10.75%.

Recent liquidity tightening measures had exposed banks (more particularly the

wholesale funded ones) to increased funding costs and thereby further marginpressures. Given the wholesale dominated funding nature of the bank, Yes bank

was one of many banks that could have faced higher margins pressures, in case

these measures were not temporary in nature. RBI yesterday clearly highlighted

that the calibrated withdrawal of these tightening measures would be conditional

on forex stability, which in itself, appeared challenging in the near-term due to

global and domestic factors unless there are sharper measures from the

government to address imports and exports.

Moreover, Axis Bank (yesterday) and HDFC Bank (few days ago), also have raised

deposit rates across select short term maturity buckets by upto 225bp and upto

100bp, respectively. The lending rates for both these banks have been keptunchanged for now. However, we believe that with liquidity tightening measures

likely to continue over the next 1-2 months, we might see transmission of higher-

than-anticipated interest rates into broader segments.

Result Review

Bharti Airtel (CMP:`345/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

For 1QFY2014, Bharti Airtels adjusted revenues as well as EBITDA came better

than expectations while bottomline was below our expectations due to higher

taxes. On reported basis, the numbers suggest lower than expected performance

as Indus Towers contribution came below EBITDA level (given change in

accounting from line by line consolidation to equity method). On reported basis,

consolidated revenues declined by 1.0% qoq to `20,264cr; adjusting for Indus

Tower contribution, consolidated revenues actually grew by 2.5% qoq. Africa

revenues declined by 5% qoq to US$1,062mn, due to political unrest in that

geography and reduction in interconnection charges.

KPIs for India mobile business were encouraging as ARPM increased by 4% qoq to

44paise and while MOU remained largely flat at 455min leading to a 3.8%

increase in ARPU to`200/month. Data ARPU increased 15% qoq to`63; data as

% of revenues declined slightly to 17.3% in 1QFY2014 from 17.4% in 4QFY2013.

Churn rate remained stable at 3.2%. Africa MOU increased by 8.5% to 134min

while ARPM was down 14.4% qoq. Africa EBITDA margin stood at 26.7%, up

~110bp qoq. Overall margin came at 32.2%, up ~50bp qoq. Profitability was hit

due to higher tax expense with tax rate coming in at 52.7%. PAT came in at

`869cr, up 12% yoy.

Operational KPIs of core cellular India business surprised us implying that the

larger telecom companies such as Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular are benefiting at

a faster pace from declining competitive intensity but there are concerns regarding

the African operations which might weigh upon Bharti Airtels performance. Bharti

continues to be our preferred pick amongst telcos due to its low-cost integrated

model (owned tower infrastructure), established leadership in revenue and

subscriber market share and relatively better KPIs.

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Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 85,489 31.9 3,883 10.2 7.2 33.7 2.4 6.9 2.2

FY2015E 94,229 31.9 5,553 14.6 9.4 23.6 2.2 6.0 1.9

ICICI Bank (CMP:`909 / TP:`1,131 / Upside: 24.3%)

ICICI Bank delivered healthy performance for the quarter, which was in line with

our expectations. NII grew at healthy pace of 19.7% yoy to`3,820cr (much higher

than advance growth of 12.3%). Non-interest income grew by 32.1% yoy to

`2,484cr, propelled by treasury gains of `403cr during the quarter vs. a loss of

`21cr in 1QFY2013. Overall, operating profit grew by healthy 29.3% yoy to

`3,814cr. On the asset quality front, the bank managed to broadly hold on to its

good asset quality, as Gross NPA ratio remained stable sequentially at 3.2%. Net

NPA ratio increased marginally by 5bp qoq to 0.8%, as PCR declined by 140bp

qoq to 75.4%. Overall, the bank delivered healthy earnings growth of 25.3% yoy

to`2,274cr .

At CMP, the stock trades at 1.3x FY2015E ABV, which is below our longer term fair

value estimates. Recent macro developments amidst a weak macro environment

clearly suggest that the asset quality pressures for the sector are unlikely to subside

as quickly as was expected earlier. Overall, we have a cautious outlook for the

sector. Though, in the near term, stocks like ICICI Bank may undershoot fair value

estimates, but from a relative point-of-view compared to peers, it remains one of

our preferred banks, from a medium term perspective. We maintain out Buyrecommendation on the stock, from a medium term perspective, with a targetprice of `1,131.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 26,119 3.1 9,943 86.2 634.0 1.6 15.6 10.6 1.4

FY2015E 30,474 3.1 11,481 99.5 698.0 1.6 16.2 9.1 1.3

HCL Technologies (CMP:`938/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

HCL Tech reported inline set for results for 1QFY2014 on revenue and operational

margin front with overall bottomline ahead of expectations on the back of higher

than expected forex gains and lower tax rate. The dollar revenues grew by 3.1%

qoq to US$1227.6mn, led by strong 8.6% qoq dollar revenue growth in

Infrastructure management services. Software services saw the lowest growth

among the segments with about 0.6% qoq growth in revenues to US$788mn. HCL

Tech, with end-to-end IT capabilities and a strong client mining ability, is

outperforming many of its peers companies. Operating margin of this company

has always been a concern and now managements focus to improve this has

been paying off. The company has been able to increase its operating margins

since last five quarters and this quarter EBIT margin of the company grew by

118bp qoq to 21.0%. PAT stood tall at`1,209cr, up 16% qoq, aided by forex gain

of`31cr and lower tax rate of 22% as against 24.2% in 3QFY2013.

HCL Tech won 12 multi-year, multi-million dollar deals this quarter with worth over

US$1bn, maintaining its sustained momentum of signing ~US$1bn+ TCV worth

of deals every quarter. HCL Tech has displayed an industry-leading growth

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trajectory and has a strong position in one of the fastest growing service vertical of

IMS. The only concern that remains with the company is soft growth in core

software services since last three quarters and we wait for management

commentary on this. Overall, we continue to be positive on the stock keeping in

notice the companys deal signing trajectory and healthy performance since last

several quarters. The target price is currently under review.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 29,424 22.6 4,187 59.5 24.6 15.8 3.8 9.0 2.0

FY2015E 32,837 22.0 4,459 63.3 21.7 14.8 3.2 7.9 1.7

JSW Steel (CMP:`565/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

JSW Steels (JSW) 1QFY2014 top-line was below our estimate while its operating

margin was above our estimate. The results are not comparable with

1QFY2013 results as JSW Steel has merged with JSW Ispat during 4QFY2013.JSW Steels standalone net sales stood at `9,235cr, below our estimate of

`11,147cr. JSW Steels EBITDA stood at`1,749cr, representing an EBITDA margin

of 18.9% above our estimate of 17.4%. Adjusted net profit (excluding forex loss of

`852cr) stood at `632cr (above our estimate was of `585cr). With slower than

expected ramp up of iron ore mining in Karnataka, we believe increasing steel

production meaningfully during FY2014 would remain a challenge. Moreover, we

opine that JSW Ispats merger with JSW Steel is likely to erode JSW steels margins.

We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BVEV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 47,631 16.6 1,484 60.6 8.3 9.3 0.7 4.0 0.7

FY2015E 49,721 16.7 1,823 74.5 9.5 7.6 0.7 3.8 0.6

Motherson Sumi Systems (CMP:`204/ TP:`242/ Upside: 18%)For 1QFY2014, Motherson Sumi Systems (MSS) registered slightly better-than-

expected bottom-line (adjusted for foreign exchange loss) performance, driven by

strong growth at the standalone and Samvardhana Motherson Reflectec (SMR)

front. Nevertheless, net loss at Samvardhana Motherson Peguform (SMP) widened

to`64cr (from`17cr in 4QFY2013) due to higher interest expense.

For 1QFY2014, consolidated revenues registered a healthy growth of 10.9% yoy

(6.1% qoq) to`7,083cr, slightly better than our expectations of`6,780cr. The top-

line performance was driven by a strong growth of 28.4% (7.3% qoq) and 9.4%

yoy (11.8% qoq) at SMR and SMP respectively led by pick-up in order execution at

the new plants in Hungary, Brazil and Thailand. The standalone revenues though

posted a modest growth of 1.6% yoy due to the slowdown in the domestic markets.

While the revenues in India remained flat, revenues outside India grew strongly by

14.2% yoy. On the operating front, consolidated margins improved 165bp yoy

(250bp qoq) to 8.8%, in-line with our expectations, primarily driven by easing of

raw-material prices and also on account of improving capacity utilization across

the SMR and SMP plants. Noticeably, the company witnessed margin expansionacross all the three entities, standalone level and SMR and SMP front. While

standalone margins improved 150bp yoy to 18.1%; SMR and SMP operations

reported a significant expansion in margins to 8.6% (up 260bp yoy) and 5.5% (up

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130bp yoy) respectively. As a result of the strong operating performance,

consolidated EBITDA surged 36.5% yoy (9.2% qoq) to`622cr. During the quarter

MSS registered a foreign exchange loss of`169cr. Adjusted for the same bottom-

line grew strongly by 16% yoy to`243cr, slightly ahead of our estimates of`221cr.

While the SMR bottom-line stood at `37cr (against a loss of `2cr in 1QFY2013

and`33cr profit in 4QFY2013); standalone net profit grew by 22% yoy to `81cr.At`204, the stock is trading at 12.7x FY2015E earnings. We recommend a Buyrating on the stock with a target price of `242.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 28,442 8.4 763 13.0 29.4 15.7 4.1 6.4 0.5

FY2015E 31,914 8.7 948 16.1 28.6 12.7 3.2 5.4 0.5

Andhra Bank (CMP:`65/ TP: - / Upside: -)Andhra Bank reported disappointing operating performance for the quarter. NII

for the bank de-grew 6.9% yoy to `874cr. Non-interest income grew strongly by

98.4% yoy to `468cr, probably boosted by treasury gains. Overall, pre-

provisioning profit for the bank grew by 5.9% yoy to`746cr. On the asset quality

front, the bank witnessed significant asset quality stress during the quarter, as

Gross and Net NPA levels increased sequentially by around 27.8% and 33.3%.

Bank increased Provisioning expenses by 86.3%, resulting in bottom-line de-

growth of 36.3% yoy to`231cr. Considering recent macro developments amidst a

overall weak economic environment, we believe that asset quality stress is unlikely

to abate as quickly as was anticipated earlier. Hence, we maintain our Neutralrating on the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 5,180 2.7 1,064 19.0 143.8 0.7 12.0 3.4 0.4

FY2015E 5,815 2.7 1,281 22.9 160.8 0.7 13.2 2.8 0.4

Jagran (CMP:`90/TP:`119/Upside: 32%)

For 1QFY2014, Jagrans top-line and bottom-line performance was better than

our estimates. Top-line grew by healthy 12.4% yoy to `385cr (our estimate of

`344cr), primarily due to 12.8% yoy growth in advertising revenue to `269cr.

Circulation revenue also reported strong growth of 14.6% yoy to `79cr. On the

operating front, OPM expanded by 151bp yoy to 26.3%. Consequently, Net profit

grew by 9% yoy to `59cr (our estimate of `52cr). At the current market price,

Jagran is trading at 11.6x FY2015E consolidated EPS of`7.8. We maintain Buy onthe stock with the target price of `119.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 1,664 20.9 203 6.4 26.7 14.0 2.8 8.9 1.8

FY2015E 1,825 23.0 246 7.8 26.8 11.6 2.5 7.2 1.7

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Dishman Pharma (CMP: `43/ TP: `168/ Upside: 290%)Dishman Pharma reported numbers lower than expected. During the quarter,

Dishman reported a de-growth of 2.9% yoy in the top line to end the period at

`306.2cr, V/s expectation of`349cr. The dip in the sales was on back of the MM

segment, which de-grew by 22.0%, while the CRAMS segment grew by 8.6% yoy.The OPM came in much higher at 27.8% V/s expectation of 24.6% and a yoy

expansion of 133bp. The expansion in margins was on back of gross margin

improvement , which expanded by 211bps.However, a 21.3% yoy and 30.4% yoy

rise in interest and depreciation expenses during the period lead the net profit to

decline by 24.5% during the period. We maintain buy on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 1,394 22.5 121 15.0 11.0 2.9 0.3 3.9 0.9

FY2015E 1,534 22.4 136 16.8 11.2 2.6 0.3 3.2 0.7

Result Preview

Idea Cellular (CMP:`169/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

Idea Cellular is slated to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect the

company to record revenue of `6,218cr, up 2.6% qoq. This is expected primarily

on the back of 1.0% qoq growth each in ARPM to`0.42/min in MOU to 410min.

APRU is expected to increase by ~2.0% qoq to`171/month. EBITDA margin of the

company is expected to decline by 70bp qoq to 26.9%. PAT is expected at `314cr.

We maintain Neutral rating on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 25,640 26.9 1,322 4.0 8.4 42.2 3.5 9.8 2.6

FY2015E 28,459 27.2 1,632 4.9 9.4 34.2 3.2 8.4 2.3

Reliance Communications (CMP:`140/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

Reliance Communication (RCom) is slated to announce its 1QFY2014 results

today. We expect to company to record revenues of`5,484cr, up 1.4% qoq. This is

expected primarily on the back of qoq flat ARPM at `0.44/min and 1.0% qoq

growth in MOU to 2942min. EBITDA margin is expected to decline by 27bp qoq to

30.6%. PAT is expected to come in at`267cr. We maintain our Neutral view onthe stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 22,751 30.9 707 3.4 2.1 40.7 0.8 9.2 2.9

FY2015E 24,628 31.3 1,086 5.3 3.1 26.5 0.8 8.0 2.5

Bank of Baroda - (CMP:`561 / TP: - / Upside: - -)Bank of Baroda is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect

the bank to report subdued NII growth of 5.3% yoy to `2,946cr. Non-interest

income is expected to grow moderately by 11.7% to `861cr. Operating expenses

are expected to grow at 11.9% yoy to `1,472cr. Thus the bank is expected to

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report modest operating profit growth of 3.6% yoy at `2,335cr. Provisioning

expenses are expected to remain almost flat at`894cr (on back of higher base in

1QFY2013). Overall, we expect the bank to report flat earnings performance at

`1,138cr. At CMP, the stock trades at valuations of 0.6x FY2015E ABV. Given the

recent macro developments amidst a weak macro-economic environment, we

believe that the asset quality pressures for the banking are unlikely to abate asquickly as was expected earlier. Overall, we have a cautious view on the sector.

Hence, we recommend a Neutral recommendation on the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 16,287 2.2 5,095 120.6 834.7 0.9 15.0 4.6 0.7

FY2015E 18,707 2.3 6,111 144.6 951.3 0.9 16.0 3.9 0.6

GSK Consumer (CMP: `4,685/TP:-/Upside :-)

GSK Consumer is expected to declare its 2QCY2013 results today. We expect the

top-line to grow by 17.5% yoy to`857cr aided by both higher volumes and better

realizations. OPM is expected to increase by 283bp yoy to 18.0%. Bottom-line is

expected to increase by 26.4% yoy to `135cr. We maintain our Neutral

recommendation on the stock.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/salesDec (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)CY2013E 3,617 16.1 514122.2 34.1 38.4 11.9 31.1 5.0

CY2014E 4,259 16.4 625148.7 33.7 31.5 9.6 25.3 4.2

Canara Bank - (CMP:`275 / TP: - / Upside: -)Canara Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect the

bank to report healthy NII growth of 14.8% yoy to`2,116cr.Non-interest income

is expected to grow by 31.9% to `914cr, aided primarily by trading gains.

Operating expenses are expected to grow by 13.7% yoy to`1,299cr, which would

result in healthy operating profit growth of 24.2% yoy at `1,730cr. On back of

70.8% yoy higher provisioning at `715cr, we expect the bank to report earnings

de-growth of 3.1% yoy to`751cr. At CMP, the stock trades at valuations of 0.5x

FY2015E ABV. Given the recent macro developments amidst an overall weak

macro-economic environment, we believe that the asset quality pressures for thebanking are unlikely to abate as quickly as was expected earlier. Overall, we have

a cautious view on the sector. Hence, we maintain our Neutral recommendationon the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 12,045 2.1 3,400 76.7 534.8 0.8 14.1 3.6 0.5

FY2015E 13,495 2.2 3,826 86.4 603.8 0.8 14.2 3.2 0.5

Union Bank - (CMP:`133/ TP: -/ Upside: - )Union Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect the

bank to report 10.9% yoy growth in Net Interest Income (NII) to `2,020cr. Non-

interest income is expected to grow by 16.1% yoy to `570cr, aided by treasury

gains. Operating expenses are expected to increase by 15.6% yoy to `1,209cr,

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while provisioning expenses are expected to increase by 3.7% yoy to `537cr.

Overall, Net profit is expected to grow by 8.9% to `557cr. Given the recent macro

developments amidst an overall weak macro-economic environment, we believe

that the asset quality pressures for the banking are unlikely to abate as quickly as

was expected earlier. Overall, we have a cautious view on the sector. Hence, wemaintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 11,101 2.6 2,355 39.3 283.6 0.7 14.1 3.4 0.5

FY2015E 12,543 2.6 2,837 47.4 324.3 0.7 15.2 2.8 0.4

JK Bank (CMP:`1,122/ TP: - / Upside: -)JK Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect the bank

to report a healthy NII growth of 20.2% yoy to`644cr. Non-interest income is also

expected to grow at a healthy pace of 23.0% yoy to`

115cr. Operating expensesare expected to increase by 27.2% yoy to `272cr, while provisioning expenses are

expected to increase by much higher 93.3% yoy to `97cr. Overall, the bank is

expected to report subdued earnings growth of 4.4% yoy to `257cr. At CMP, the

stock is trading at 0.9x FY2015E ABV. We maintain our Neutral recommendationon the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 3,101 3.6 1,045 215.51,167.6 1.4 19.9 5.2 1.0

FY2015E 3,427 3.6 1,019 210.21,314.9 1.2 16.8 5.3 0.9

Tata Global (CMP: `160/TP:-/Upside :-)

Tata Global is expected to declare its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect the

consolidated top-line to grow by 5.9% yoy to `1,816cr. OPM is expected to

increase by 87bp yoy to 10.5%. Bottom-line is expected to increase by 37.7% yoy

to 107cr. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/salesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 8,069 9.8 467 7.6 9.3 21.1 2.0 12.3 1.2

FY2015E 8,957 9.7 514 8.3 9.5 19.2 1.8 11.0 1.1

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Quarterly Bloomberg Consensus Estimate

Adani Ports & SEZ (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 870 774 12.4 772 12.8

EBITDA 605 632 (4.3) 640 (5.5)EBITDA margin (%) 69.5 81.7 83.0

Net profit 428 418 2.3 491 (12.8)

Bank of Baroda (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 1,080 1,139 (5.2) 1,029 5.0

Glenmark Pharma Consolidated (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,270 1,040 22.0 1,336 (4.9)

EBITDA 253 165 53.2 255 (0.7)

EBITDA margin (%) 19.9 15.9 19.1

Net profit 151 78 92.9 167 (9.5)

Idea Consolidated (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 6,347 5,502 15.4 6,027 5.3

EBITDA 1,793 1,436 24.9 1,673 7.2

EBITDA margin (%) 28.2 26.1 27.8

Net profit 394 234 68.3 308 27.8

Cummins India (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,264 1,241 1.8 1,128 12.0

EBITDA 213 232 (8.6) 194 9.6

EBITDA margin (%) 16.8 18.7 17.2

Net profit 173 181 (4.2) 189 (8.2)

Power Grid Corporation (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 1,077 870 23.8 1,109 (2.9)

Reliance Communication Consolidated (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 5,776 4,878 18.4 4,985 15.9

EBITDA 1,884 1,595 18.1 1,392 35.3

EBITDA margin (%) 32.6 32.7 27.9

Net profit 230 162 42.0 303 (24.1)

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Tata Global Beverage Consolidated (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,866 1,715 8.8 1,811 3.1

EBITDA 219 181 21.0 223 (2.1)

EBITDA margin (%) 11.7 10.5 12.3

Net profit 105 78 34.9 96 9.4

Titan Industries (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 2,727 2,206 23.6 2,593 5.1

EBITDA 271 212 27.8 267 1.8

EBITDA margin (%) 9.9 9.6 10.3

Net profit 189 156 21.1 185 2.2

Union Bank of India (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 638 512 24.7 789 (19.2)

Power Finance Corporation (02/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 1,256 972 29.2 1,294 (2.9)

Siemens India (02/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 3QSY13E 3QSY12 y-o-y (%) 2QSY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 2,856 2,976 (4.0) 2,908 (1.8)

EBITDA 171 118 44.9 88 94.3

EBITDA margin (%) 6.0 4.0 3.0

Net profit 82 36 127.8 30 173.3

BHEL (03/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 7,988 8,326 (4.1) 18,850 (57.6)

EBITDA 1,054 1,571 (32.9) 4,651 (77.3)

EBITDA margin (%) 13.2 18.9 24.7

Net profit 780 921 (15.3) 3,238 (75.9)

Canara Bank (03/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 799 775 3.1 725 10.2

Coal India Consolidated (03/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 17,048 16,500 3.3 19,905 (14.4)

EBITDA 4,401 4,815 (8.6) 7,490 (41.2)

EBITDA margin (%) 25.8 29.2 37.6

Net profit 4,230 4,469 (5.3) 5,414 (21.9)

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Divi's Laboratories (03/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 543 468 16.0 650 (16.5)

EBITDA 204 192 6.3 252 (19.0)

EBITDA margin (%) 37.6 41.0 38.8

Net profit 153 167 (8.4) 182 (15.9)

Godrej Consumers Consolidated (03/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,736 1,388 25.1 1,716 1.2

EBITDA 260 199 30.7 279 (6.8)

EBITDA margin (%) 15.0 14.3 16.3

Net profit 173 130 33.1 334 (48.2)

Grasim Industries Consolidated (03/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 6,652 6,793 (2.1) 7,553 (11.9)

EBITDA 1,296 1,767 (26.7) 1,990 (34.9)

EBITDA margin (%) 19.5 26.0 26.3

Net profit 560 718 (22.0) 818 (31.5)

Economic and Political News

Resentment in Odisha over compensation for Posco project Trade deficit with China not healthy for economy: Anand Sharma Visa bonds to impact India Inc's UK investment plans:Ficci CCI approves 2 Arunachal hydro power projectsCorporate News

Lupin gets US nod for Armodafinil tablets, Doxycycline capsules VE Commercial Vehicles to invest `1,000cr by 2014-end Kesoram promoters infuse `200cr to raise stake to 49% Coal India to discuss modalities for importing coal on Aug 8 Aircel-Maxis case- CBI to file status report in SC today

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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Date Company

August 01, 2013J & K Bank, Power Grid Corpn, Idea Cellular, Mundra Port, Bank of Baroda, Titan Inds., Adani Power, Rcom, UnionBank, United Spirits, Cummins India, GlaxoSmith Con, Glenmark Pharma., Tata Global, Tree House

August 02, 2013 Siemens, Power Fin.Corpn., Sun TV Network, Suzlon Energy, Bank of Maharashtra

August 03, 2013Coal India, BHEL, Grasim Inds, Canara Bank, Godrej Consumer, Divi's Lab., Oriental Bank, PTC India, GodawariIspat

August 04, 2013

August 05, 2013 Tata Chemicals, LMW, Graphite India, GIPCL, SpiceJet

August 06, 2013 Tata Power Co., Bosch India, Crompton Greaves, Unitech

August 07, 2013NMDC, Tata Motors, Ranbaxy, Lupin, GSK Pharma, Cadila Healthcare, Gujarat Gas, Apollo Tyres, Nagarjuna Const.,Alembic Pharma

August 08, 2013 Adani Enterp., Rural Elec.Corp., Bharat Forge, IRB Infra, ITNL, Page Industries, Prakash Industries, ITD Cementation

August 09, 2013 Sun Pharma, ABB, Aurobindo Pharma, TVS Motor, Finolex Cables, Goodyear

August 10, 2013 Sarda Energy

August 11, 2013

August 12, 2013 ONGC, HPCL, Marico, Indraprasth Gas, Britannia, India Cements, Jyothy Laboratories

August 13, 2013 IOC, M&M, Tata Steel, Hindalco, BPCL, GMR Infra., GSPLAugust 14, 2013 SAIL, LIC Housing Fin., Amara Raja Batteries, Simplex Infra

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

August 1, 2013 6:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Jul 27 343.00 345.00

1:25PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jul F 50.30 50.30

6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Jul 50.30 49.80

2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jul 52.50 52.80

4:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Aug 1 0.50 0.50

5:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Aug 1 0.50 0.50

August 2, 2013 6:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Jul 195.00 185.00

6:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Jul 7.60 7.50

August 5, 2013 1:25PM Germany PMI Services Value Jul F 52.50 --

August 6, 2013 2:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jun (2.30) --

August 8, 2013 4:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Jul (3.10) 0.50

August 9, 2013 7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Jul 2.70 2.80

11:00AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jul 8.90 8.80

August 12, 2013 4:29PM India Imports YoY% % Change Jul (0.37) --4:29PM India Exports YoY% % Change Jul (4.60) --

5:30PM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Jun (1.60) --

August 13, 2013 2:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Jul 2.90 --

August 14, 2013 2:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Jul (21.20) --

11:30AM Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change 2Q P (1.40) --

12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Jul 4.86 --

2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 2Q A (0.30) --

6:00PM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Jul 0.80 --

August 15, 2013 6:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Jul 0.50 --

6:45PM US Industrial Production % Jul 0.31 --


August 01, 2013

Market Outlook

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13/21



Macro watch

Exhibit1:Quarterly GDP trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit2:IIP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit3:Monthly WPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit4:Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit5:Exports and imports growth trends


Exhibit6:Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

9.3

7.7

11.4

9.5

8.69.2

9.9

7.5

6.56.0

5.1 5.4 5.24.7 4.8

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

4QFY13

(%)

(2.0)

(0.1)

2.0

(0.7)

8.4

(1.0) (0.6)

2.5

0.6

3.4

1.9

(1.6)(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Jun-1

2

Ju

l-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc

t-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

May-1

3

(%)

8.0 8.17.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3

5.7

4.8 4.7 4.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc

t-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

(%)

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Ju

l-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc

t-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

May-1

3

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

(15.0)

0.0

15.0

Ju

l-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc

t-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb-1

3

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-13

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 138 - 2,686 1,674 1,923 13.7 13.7 6.8 7.6 20.3 18.2 3.8 3.4 20.0 19.6 1.8 1.5

United Phosphorus Buy 127 225 5,630 10,091 11,302 16.5 16.5 19.2 22.5 6.6 5.7 1.1 0.9 17.0 17.2 0.7 0.6

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Buy 240 285 4,100 3,418 3,892 14.5 14.5 18.5 20.4 13.0 11.8 3.1 2.6 26.6 23.8 1.2 1.0

Apollo Tyres Neutral 67 - 3,379 13,852 15,487 11.4 11.5 12.8 14.9 5.2 4.5 0.9 0.7 17.5 17.3 0.4 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 14 22 3,605 13,450 15,853 6.5 8.5 0.4 1.9 35.4 7.3 1.2 1.1 2.3 11.0 0.4 0.3

Automotive Axle# Neutral 217 - 327 834 965 9.3 10.6 17.3 27.1 12.5 8.0 1.2 1.1 9.5 14.0 0.5 0.4Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,936 2,102 56,013 21,696 25,239 19.2 19.3 119.3 140.2 16.2 13.8 5.7 4.5 38.9 36.6 2.2 1.8

Bharat Forge Neutral 204 - 4,754 6,198 6,793 14.6 14.9 14.5 17.3 14.1 11.8 1.8 1.6 13.6 14.7 0.9 0.8

Bosch India* Neutral 9,031 - 28,355 9,821 11,394 17.0 17.3 373.5 438.7 24.2 20.6 4.3 3.7 18.0 17.9 2.6 2.2

CEAT Buy 128 170 437 5,325 5,974 8.4 8.3 40.8 48.5 3.1 2.6 0.5 0.4 17.3 17.6 0.2 0.2

Exide Industries Buy 124 148 10,515 6,899 7,873 14.7 14.7 7.9 9.0 15.6 13.7 2.7 2.3 18.3 18.0 1.2 1.0

FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,257 - 2,089 1,336 1,572 13.8 16.0 75.6 102.4 16.6 12.3 2.1 1.8 13.4 15.8 1.3 1.1

Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,819 2,048 36,327 25,562 28,297 14.5 14.4 111.2 146.3 16.4 12.4 6.0 4.6 40.1 42.1 1.2 1.0

JK Tyre Buy 95 154 389 7,972 8,754 7.1 7.1 37.5 44.0 2.5 2.2 0.4 0.3 16.4 16.6 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 912 1,103 56,179 45,254 51,197 11.4 11.7 61.2 70.2 14.9 13.0 3.1 2.6 22.7 21.9 1.0 0.8

Maruti Buy 1,327 1,648 40,089 45,862 52,647 11.2 11.1 94.6 109.9 14.0 12.1 1.9 1.7 14.4 14.6 0.7 0.6

Motherson Sumi Buy 204 242 12,010 28,442 31,914 8.4 8.7 13.0 16.1 15.7 12.7 4.1 3.2 29.4 28.6 0.5 0.5

Subros Buy 19 23 115 1,230 1,398 10.5 10.5 2.3 3.8 8.3 5.1 0.4 0.4 4.8 7.6 0.3 0.3

Tata Motors Buy 291 347 78,277 215,016 237,404 13.3 13.6 36.2 41.5 8.0 7.0 1.8 1.5 24.6 23.2 0.4 0.4

TVS Motor Accumulate 31 35 1,473 7,715 8,584 6.0 6.1 5.0 5.8 6.2 5.4 1.1 0.9 18.1 18.5 0.1 0.1

Capital Goods

ABB* Reduce 501 461 10,617 8,073 9,052 5.5 6.9 11.5 16.9 43.5 29.6 4.0 3.8 9.3 13.1 1.3 1.1BGR Energy Neutral 85 - 613 3,756 4,569 11.4 9.7 21.7 24.1 3.9 3.5 0.5 0.4 22.3 20.3 0.5 0.4

BHEL Neutral 158 - 38,733 44,054 39,326 16.8 15.1 20.6 16.1 7.7 9.8 1.7 1.5 23.5 16.1 0.8 0.8

Blue Star Buy 154 208 1,383 2,941 3,099 3.4 4.2 6.0 9.3 25.7 16.5 3.2 2.8 12.9 18.0 0.6 0.5

Crompton Greaves Buy 85 117 5,437 13,446 15,272 6.7 7.6 6.6 8.9 12.8 9.5 1.4 1.3 11.4 14.0 0.5 0.5

Jyoti Structures Neutral 17 - 138 3,312 3,555 9.0 9.0 4.5 6.5 3.7 2.6 0.2 0.2 5.6 7.7 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 28 49 710 7,709 8,399 6.7 7.2 6.1 8.5 4.6 3.2 0.6 0.5 20.2 23.0 0.3 0.2

Thermax Neutral 581 - 6,924 5,832 6,397 9.1 9.6 28.8 32.9 20.2 17.7 3.3 2.9 17.2 17.3 1.1 1.0

Cement

ACC Buy 1,171 1,361 21,992 11,820 13,254 19.3 20.9 74.9 93.1 15.7 12.6 2.7 2.4 18.1 20.3 1.6 1.3


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

August 01, 2013

8/22/2019 Market Outlook, 01-08-2013

15/21



Cement

Ambuja Cements Neutral 167 - 25,842 10,171 11,762 23.5 24.6 10.2 12.2 16.4 13.7 2.7 2.5 17.1 18.7 2.0 1.6

India Cements Neutral 52 - 1,588 4,929 5,434 17.4 17.1 8.9 10.9 5.8 4.7 0.4 0.4 7.7 9.1 0.7 0.6

J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 61 100 714 2,256 2,709 20.2 22.2 17.0 20.4 3.6 3.0 0.5 0.4 14.8 15.4 0.4 0.8

Madras Cements Neutral 161 - 3,822 4,234 4,788 23.9 24.0 18.5 22.8 8.7 7.1 1.4 1.2 17.2 18.2 1.3 1.0

Shree Cement^ Neutral 4,366 - 15,211 6,607 7,520 27.5 26.7 322.8 374.3 13.5 11.7 3.4 2.7 27.8 25.6 1.7 1.3

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,833 - 50,251 21,947 25,049 23.8 23.8 106.1 119.8 17.3 15.3 2.9 2.5 17.7 17.3 2.4 2.0

ConstructionAshoka Buildcon Buy 50 84 797 1,928 2,234 21.0 21.5 6.0 7.4 8.4 6.8 0.8 0.7 10.5 10.8 1.8 1.8

Consolidated Co Neutral 7 - 138 1,715 1,824 2.4 6.2 (2.9) (0.4) (2.6) (20.6) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5

IRB Infra Buy 73 157 2,416 3,997 4,312 45.5 46.4 15.7 16.6 4.6 4.4 0.7 0.6 15.2 14.5 3.0 3.3

ITNL Buy 121 230 2,341 7,444 8,041 27.4 28.9 29.8 32.1 4.0 3.8 0.6 0.5 14.9 14.2 2.4 2.5

IVRCL Infra Buy 12 29 359 5,673 5,892 8.1 8.4 1.4 1.8 8.1 6.4 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.6 0.5 0.5

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 36 53 8,044 12,946 14,897 24.7 25.6 1.2 2.7 29.5 13.5 0.6 0.6 2.0 4.3 2.5 2.3

Larsen & Toubro Buy 846 1,128 78,287 68,946 78,040 10.0 10.0 49.0 55.2 17.3 15.3 2.5 2.2 14.9 15.3 1.3 1.1

Nagarjuna Const. Buy 23 42 590 6,167 6,945 8.0 8.2 2.7 3.6 8.6 6.3 0.2 0.2 2.7 3.6 0.5 0.4

Punj Lloyd Neutral 26 - 860 12,954 14,740 9.9 9.9 0.5 0.9 51.0 27.8 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 70 139 1,055 2,462 2,731 10.6 10.6 5.9 6.7 11.9 10.5 1.2 1.1 10.2 10.5 0.7 0.7

Simplex Infra Buy 62 131 308 6,308 7,033 9.5 9.6 11.9 18.7 5.2 3.3 0.2 0.2 4.5 6.7 0.5 0.5

Unity Infra Buy 19 41 141 2,146 2,339 13.7 13.8 11.0 11.5 1.7 1.7 0.2 0.1 9.3 9.0 0.6 0.6

Financials

Allahabad Bank Neutral 71 - 3,570 6,705 7,535 2.5 2.5 27.6 33.2 2.6 2.2 0.4 0.3 12.5 13.6 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 65 - 3,620 5,180 5,815 2.7 2.7 19.0 22.9 3.4 2.8 0.5 0.4 12.0 13.2 - -

Axis Bank Buy 1,034 1,348 48,512 19,280 22,886 3.3 3.3 130.7 157.1 7.9 6.6 1.3 1.1 17.3 18.1 - -Bank of Baroda Neutral 561 - 23,614 16,287 18,707 2.2 2.3 120.6 144.6 4.7 3.9 0.7 0.6 15.0 16.0 - -

Bank of India Neutral 184 - 10,988 14,482 16,069 2.3 2.2 55.0 62.2 3.4 3.0 0.5 0.4 13.7 13.9 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 44 - 2,901 4,291 4,724 3.0 3.0 12.1 12.9 3.6 3.4 0.6 0.5 16.2 15.3 - -

Canara Bank Neutral 275 - 12,160 12,045 13,495 2.1 2.2 76.7 86.4 3.6 3.2 0.5 0.5 14.1 14.2 - -

Central Bank Neutral 56 - 5,834 8,196 9,202 2.4 2.4 6.1 15.9 9.2 3.5 0.7 0.6 5.2 12.8 - -

Corporation Bank Neutral 287 - 4,387 5,554 6,156 2.0 2.0 94.9 104.9 3.0 2.7 0.4 0.4 14.3 14.2 - -

Dena Bank Neutral 54 - 1,873 3,255 3,623 2.3 2.4 22.0 24.9 2.4 2.2 0.4 0.3 14.7 14.7 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 349 - 5,970 2,798 3,250 3.0 3.0 38.1 51.9 9.2 6.7 0.9 0.8 9.8 12.3 - -


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

August 01, 2013

8/22/2019 Market Outlook, 01-08-2013

16/21



Financials

HDFC Accumulate 800 867 124,252 8,679 10,350 3.6 3.6 37.5 44.7 21.3 17.9 4.5 4.0 30.1 30.7 - -

HDFC Bank Buy 610 745 145,641 27,392 33,264 4.6 4.6 36.3 45.1 16.8 13.5 3.4 2.9 21.9 22.8 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 909 1,131 104,950 26,119 30,474 3.1 3.2 86.2 99.5 10.6 9.1 1.4 1.3 15.7 16.2 - -

IDBI Bank Neutral 65 - 8,696 9,518 10,468 2.0 2.0 15.5 22.1 4.2 3.0 0.4 0.4 10.2 13.3 - -

Indian Bank Neutral 81 - 3,483 6,077 6,845 2.9 3.0 35.2 41.0 2.3 2.0 0.3 0.3 14.1 14.8 - -

IOB Neutral 42 - 3,881 7,709 8,645 2.2 2.3 8.2 17.1 5.1 2.5 0.3 0.3 6.0 11.7 - -

J & K Bank Neutral 1,122 - 5,439 3,101 3,427 3.6 3.6 215.5 210.3 5.2 5.3 1.0 0.9 19.9 16.9 - -LIC Housing Finance Neutral 166 - 8,375 2,180 2,732 2.4 2.5 26.3 32.1 6.3 5.2 1.1 1.0 19.0 19.9 - -

Oriental Bank Neutral 154 - 4,503 6,790 7,676 2.6 2.7 55.7 62.3 2.8 2.5 0.4 0.3 12.8 12.9 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Neutral 571 - 20,187 20,766 23,515 3.4 3.4 135.0 164.8 4.2 3.5 0.7 0.6 14.4 15.7 - -

South Ind.Bank Neutral 22 - 2,996 1,800 2,023 2.7 2.7 3.7 4.2 6.0 5.3 0.9 0.8 16.2 16.2 - -

St Bk of India Buy 1,710 1,979 116,960 66,417 76,734 3.0 3.0 227.4 284.8 7.5 6.0 1.1 1.0 15.4 17.1 - -

Syndicate Bank Neutral 88 - 5,288 7,125 8,188 2.6 2.6 27.4 27.9 3.2 3.2 0.5 0.4 16.2 14.6 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 60 - 4,516 6,736 6,979 2.7 2.6 15.3 15.7 3.9 3.8 0.7 0.6 14.8 13.6 - -

Union Bank Neutral 133 - 7,934 11,101 12,543 2.6 2.6 39.3 47.4 3.4 2.8 0.5 0.4 14.1 15.2 - -

United Bank Neutral 36 - 1,336 3,386 3,884 2.3 2.5 12.4 20.0 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.3 10.0 14.7 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 40 - 1,995 2,714 3,046 1.9 2.0 9.2 10.8 4.4 3.7 0.5 0.4 10.7 11.5 - -

Yes Bank Neutral 324 - 11,648 4,417 5,486 2.7 2.8 42.9 49.5 7.6 6.5 1.6 1.4 23.9 22.8 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 507 - 48,641 12,332 14,524 16.3 16.1 13.9 16.0 36.5 31.6 11.6 9.2 35.2 32.5 3.8 3.2

Britannia Neutral 700 - 8,377 6,417 7,502 6.1 6.3 21.3 25.5 32.9 27.5 10.7 8.6 35.7 34.6 1.3 1.1

Colgate Neutral 1,371 - 18,643 3,588 4,130 20.5 20.9 44.2 51.8 31.0 26.5 30.2 22.0 108.6 96.2 5.0 4.3

Dabur India Neutral 162 - 28,195 7,183 8,340 16.8 16.8 5.4 6.3 30.1 25.7 11.7 9.1 41.5 40.1 3.9 3.3

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 4,688 - 19,715 3,617 4,259 16.1 16.4 122.2 148.7 38.4 31.5 11.9 9.6 34.1 33.7 5.0 4.2

Godrej Consumer Neutral 796 - 27,097 7,801 9,017 16.2 15.9 25.1 29.7 31.7 26.8 6.8 5.7 24.9 24.2 3.6 3.1

HUL Neutral 613 - 132,657 28,415 31,962 13.6 14.1 16.7 18.2 36.8 33.7 35.3 25.6 112.2 88.1 4.5 4.0

ITC Neutral 342 - 270,175 34,294 39,991 36.8 37.0 11.3 13.3 30.3 25.6 10.0 8.1 36.1 34.9 7.6 6.4

Marico Neutral 210 - 13,545 5,273 6,044 14.8 14.9 7.3 8.7 29.0 24.2 5.6 4.7 21.4 21.0 2.6 2.3

Nestle* Neutral 5,295 - 51,049 9,447 10,968 22.1 22.3 127.5 154.1 41.5 34.4 20.8 15.0 57.7 50.7 5.4 4.6

Tata Global Neutral 160 - 9,876 8,069 8,957 9.8 9.7 7.8 8.6 20.4 18.6 2.5 2.4 9.5 9.7 1.2 1.1


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IT

HCL Tech^ Reduce 938 870 65,349 29,424 32,837 22.6 22.0 59.5 63.3 15.8 14.8 3.8 3.2 24.6 21.7 2.0 1.8

Hexaware* Accumulate 116 123 3,469 2,213 2,479 21.5 20.5 12.1 12.9 9.6 9.0 2.4 2.1 25.4 23.5 1.4 1.2

Infosys Neutral 2,967 - 170,384 47,001 51,196 26.2 26.4 171.3 189.4 17.3 15.7 3.5 3.0 20.4 19.3 3.0 2.6

Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 180 190 2,009 2,052 2,263 17.2 17.6 20.7 22.5 8.7 8.0 1.3 1.1 14.9 14.0 0.6 0.5

KPIT Cummins Accumulate 126 144 2,432 2,614 2,923 17.2 16.8 13.2 14.4 9.6 8.7 1.7 1.4 18.5 16.7 0.9 0.7

Mindtree Accumulate 957 1,050 3,976 2,768 3,006 19.7 19.9 103.1 105.3 9.3 9.1 2.2 1.8 24.8 20.3 1.1 0.9

Mphasis& Neutral 400 - 8,397 6,372 6,852 18.0 18.2 38.0 43.5 10.5 9.2 1.5 1.3 14.3 14.2 0.8 0.7NIIT Neutral 15 - 249 1,144 1,267 9.0 9.1 4.3 5.4 3.5 2.8 0.4 0.3 10.3 12.0 - (0.1)

Persistent Accumulate 518 595 2,072 1,505 1,677 25.9 26.2 53.6 59.7 9.7 8.7 1.7 1.5 17.7 16.7 1.0 0.8

TCS Accumulate 1,815 2,060 355,255 79,005 91,576 29.7 30.0 88.6 103.1 20.5 17.6 6.5 5.1 31.5 29.2 4.3 3.6

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 1,247 1,390 28,958 8,102 8,709 19.7 19.2 107.5 117.0 11.6 10.7 2.5 2.0 21.2 18.9 3.6 3.2

Wipro Neutral 437 - 107,771 41,659 45,137 21.2 21.4 27.7 29.9 15.8 14.6 3.3 2.8 20.5 19.0 2.1 1.8

Media

D B Corp Buy 250 302 4,578 1,783 1,968 25.2 26.8 14.6 17.2 17.2 14.5 4.5 3.8 23.9 24.2 2.5 2.2

HT Media Buy 99 117 2,321 2,205 2,380 15.1 15.6 8.3 9.3 11.9 10.7 1.5 1.3 11.6 11.6 0.7 0.6

Jagran Prakashan Buy 90 107 2,996 1,664 1,825 20.9 23.0 6.4 7.8 14.0 11.6 2.8 2.6 21.0 23.1 1.9 1.7

PVR Neutral 351 - 1,393 1,359 1,540 17.3 17.4 17.2 21.6 20.3 16.3 2.0 1.9 10.3 12.0 1.4 1.3

Sun TV Network Neutral 407 - 16,031 2,287 2,551 69.7 70.5 20.0 23.3 20.3 17.5 5.0 4.4 26.4 27.3 6.7 5.9

Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 460 - 10,425 13,794 17,088 30.9 33.5 49.3 66.6 9.3 6.9 1.0 0.9 11.3 13.5 2.4 1.9

Coal India Buy 281 345 177,774 72,174 76,311 33.3 28.4 28.4 30.9 9.9 9.1 2.7 2.3 37.6 36.2 1.6 1.5

Electrosteel Castings Buy 10 18 328 1,976 2,017 11.8 12.7 1.3 2.6 8.0 3.9 0.1 - 2.6 5.2 0.5 0.1

GMDC Buy 87 155 2,762 1,920 2,239 53.2 52.9 21.6 25.0 4.0 3.5 0.9 0.8 25.1 23.8 1.0 0.6Hind. Zinc Buy 102 140 42,908 12,389 13,093 48.5 51.7 15.2 17.0 6.7 6.0 1.2 1.0 18.5 18.0 1.3 0.8

Hindalco Neutral 90 - 17,260 89,352 93,672 8.8 9.2 13.4 15.0 6.7 6.0 0.5 0.4 7.3 7.6 0.5 0.5

JSW Steel Neutral 565 - 13,668 47,613 48,385 17.4 18.8 81.8 109.6 6.9 5.2 0.7 0.7 11.1 13.4 0.6 0.5

MOIL Buy 188 248 3,161 1,010 1,046 46.5 47.6 26.8 28.8 7.0 6.5 1.0 0.9 15.4 14.7 0.7 0.5

Monnet Ispat Buy 104 193 664 2,326 2,709 21.4 23.1 33.3 43.1 3.1 2.4 0.2 0.2 8.3 9.9 1.3 1.0

Nalco Neutral 27 - 6,971 7,656 7,988 13.1 13.5 2.6 2.6 10.6 10.3 0.6 0.6 5.5 5.5 0.4 0.4

NMDC Buy 98 140 38,914 10,610 11,400 66.3 64.2 15.6 16.1 6.3 6.1 1.3 1.2 21.3 19.9 1.5 1.4

SAIL Neutral 42 - 17,243 44,060 54,786 9.4 11.5 5.2 7.2 8.0 5.8 0.4 0.4 5.2 6.8 0.6 0.6


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Metals & Mining

Sesa Goa Buy 128 162 11,116 3,817 5,781 12.1 17.7 27.0 29.6 4.7 4.3 0.6 0.5 12.9 12.5 3.7 2.5

Sterlite Inds Buy 75 97 25,356 44,493 45,599 22.4 23.9 16.8 19.2 4.5 3.9 0.5 0.4 10.5 10.9 0.5 0.5

Tata Steel Buy 216 378 20,949 140,917 151,537 9.7 10.8 30.9 47.6 7.0 4.5 0.6 0.6 9.6 13.4 0.5 0.5

Sarda Buy 78 153 278 1,494 1,568 19.1 20.3 31.3 36.5 2.5 2.1 0.3 0.3 11.8 12.4 0.5 0.4

Prakash Industries Buy 30 40 405 2,615 2,776 12.1 12.0 9.8 10.4 3.1 2.9 0.2 0.2 6.5 6.5 0.4 0.4

Godawari Power andIspat

Buy 66 102 215 2,344 2,509 14.9 15.4 38.7 47.0 1.7 1.4 0.2 0.2 12.3 12.9 0.5 0.4

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Buy 295 364 56,374 18,403 17,925 71.9 62.1 62.1 57.4 4.8 5.1 1.0 0.9 22.6 17.8 1.8 1.6

GAIL Neutral 302 - 38,251 49,700 48,822 16.0 16.6 32.9 33.4 9.2 9.0 1.4 1.2 15.9 14.4 0.3 0.2

ONGC Buy 291 387 248,879 170,063 198,461 36.3 38.3 34.7 41.9 8.4 6.9 1.5 1.3 18.3 19.5 1.2 0.9

Reliance Industries Neutral 872 - 281,488 397,546 421,695 8.9 8.7 72.3 76.8 12.1 11.4 1.3 1.1 12.3 11.8 0.7 0.6

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 176 - 2,253 3,707 3,850 11.7 12.4 23.7 25.7 7.4 6.8 2.1 1.8 29.6 28.2 0.5 0.4

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 262 - 3,665 3,700 4,218 23.4 22.8 26.7 30.4 9.8 8.6 2.1 1.7 22.7 21.8 1.1 0.9

Petronet LNG Buy 116 167 8,663 40,356 40,872 5.8 6.4 15.0 16.7 7.7 6.9 1.6 1.4 23.0 21.5 0.3 0.3

Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

Buy 50 68 2,816 1,171 1,287 91.9 91.9 10.1 11.3 5.0 4.4 0.8 0.7 17.3 16.8 1.9 1.5

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Neutral 154 - 2,912 1,736 2,008 17.1 18.9 10.7 13.9 14.4 11.1 4.5 3.4 35.0 34.7 1.7 1.5

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 169 271 4,923 6,641 7,637 15.9 15.9 17.3 20.6 9.8 8.2 1.6 1.3 19.5 18.9 1.2 1.0

Aventis* Neutral 2,375 - 5,470 1,682 1,917 16.6 16.6 92.4 99.1 25.7 24.0 3.6 3.6 15.7 14.8 2.9 2.3

Cadila Healthcare Buy 735 929 15,058 7,280 8,640 15.5 15.7 38.3 46.5 19.2 15.8 4.1 3.4 23.5 23.5 2.4 2.0

Cipla Buy 401 477 32,193 9,274 10,796 23.1 23.1 21.0 23.8 19.1 16.9 3.1 2.6 17.2 16.8 3.2 2.7

Dr Reddy's Accumulate 2,283 2,535 38,803 13,377 15,350 20.4 20.1 112.3 126.8 20.3 18.0 4.3 3.6 23.5 21.8 3.0 2.6

Dishman Pharma Buy 43 168 348 1,394 1,534 22.5 22.4 15.0 16.8 2.9 2.6 0.3 0.3 11.0 11.2 0.9 0.7

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,374 - 20,106 2,854 3,145 28.6 28.6 76.6 83.3 31.0 28.5 9.3 8.4 31.1 31.0 6.2 5.5

Indoco Remedies Buy 61 78 559 760 922 15.3 15.3 6.1 7.8 9.9 7.8 1.2 1.1 12.9 14.7 0.9 0.8

Ipca labs Neutral 664 - 8,376 3,243 3,826 20.5 21.5 36.0 44.4 18.4 15.0 4.3 3.4 26.0 25.4 2.7 2.3

Lupin Neutral 871 - 39,024 11,641 13,933 21.3 21.3 34.8 41.8 25.0 20.9 5.9 4.6 26.2 24.8 3.4 2.8

Ranbaxy* Buy 286 384 12,093 11,400 12,060 10.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 16.3 12.7 2.6 2.3 17.0 19.1 1.0 0.9

Sun Pharma Neutral 564 - 116,644 13,509 15,846 41.0 41.0 33.0 39.8 17.1 14.2 3.4 2.9 22.0 22.0 8.1 6.7

Power

GIPCL Buy 62 78 940 1,444 1,482 33.4 33.0 13.7 14.8 4.5 4.2 0.5 0.5 12.3 12.0 0.7 0.5

NTPC Buy 131 163 107,686 76,734 86,680 24.5 24.3 13.4 14.5 9.8 9.0 1.2 1.1 12.8 12.7 2.1 2.0


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Real Estate

DLF Buy 150 236 26,636 8,293 9,622 36.5 36.1 5.7 6.7 26.2 22.2 0.9 0.9 3.7 4.1 5.3 4.4

MLIFE Accumulate 444 483 1,815 888 1,002 27.0 29.9 33.9 42.1 13.1 10.6 1.3 1.2 9.9 11.2 2.6 2.4

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Reduce 345 321 137,870 85,489 94,229 31.9 31.9 10.2 14.6 33.7 23.6 2.4 2.2 7.2 9.4 2.3 2.0

Idea Cellular Neutral 169 - 56,043 25,640 28,459 26.9 27.2 4.0 4.9 42.2 34.2 3.6 3.2 8.4 9.4 2.6 2.3

Rcom Neutral 140 - 28,814 22,751 24,628 30.9 31.3 3.4 5.3 40.7 26.5 0.8 0.8 2.1 3.1 2.9 2.5

OthersAbbott India* Buy 1,403 1,659 2,982 1,863 2,081 11.8 12.4 71.2 83.0 19.7 16.9 4.0 3.4 21.6 21.5 1.4 1.1

Bajaj Electricals Buy 164 237 1,640 3,885 4,472 5.4 7.2 11.0 19.7 15.0 8.3 2.0 1.7 13.5 20.3 0.4 0.4

Cera Sanitaryware Buy 501 613 633 631 797 14.5 13.7 42.6 51.1 11.8 9.8 2.8 2.2 26.5 25.3 1.0 0.8

Cravatex Buy 289 459 75 248 284 6.5 7.3 27.2 38.2 10.7 7.6 1.7 1.4 15.7 18.5 0.5 0.4

Finolex Cables Buy 54 68 831 2,563 2,899 9.8 9.8 10.1 11.3 5.4 4.8 0.8 0.7 14.3 13.8 0.2 0.2

Force Motors Buy 254 349 331 2,304 2,649 3.1 3.6 28.0 43.7 9.1 5.8 0.3 0.3 3.1 4.7 0.1 0.1

Goodyear India* Accumulate 319 345 737 1,458 1,542 8.3 9.0 32.3 37.0 9.9 8.6 1.8 1.6 19.5 19.3 0.3 0.3

Hitachi Buy 109 191 296 1,080 1,199 8.9 9.1 18.3 19.1 6.0 5.7 1.1 0.9 19.2 17.0 0.4 0.3

Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,426 - 2,145 1,842 2,131 7.7 7.8 111.1 130.9 21.8 18.5 2.8 2.4 13.3 13.9 1.1 0.9

IFB Agro Buy 134 198 121 495 651 12.7 12.9 29.3 39.5 4.6 3.4 0.7 0.6 15.4 17.6 0.4 0.3

ITD Cementation Buy 162 234 186 1,430 1,573 11.1 11.0 19.1 26.9 8.5 6.0 0.4 0.4 5.4 7.1 0.5 0.5

Jyothy Laboratories Buy 164 199 2,729 1,220 1,476 13.3 13.6 5.5 9.0 29.8 18.2 3.4 3.0 12.1 17.7 2.6 2.0

MRF Buy 13,221 16,218 5,607 11,799 12,587 14.1 13.5 1,792.0 1,802.0 7.4 7.3 1.6 1.3 23.5 19.2 0.6 0.6

Page Industries Neutral 4,394 - 4,901 1,057 1,282 19.4 19.6 124.8 153.7 35.2 28.6 17.4 12.9 56.3 51.8 4.7 3.9

Relaxo Footwears Buy 782 981 939 1,196 1,401 11.9 12.6 55.6 75.4 14.1 10.4 3.4 2.6 27.1 28.1 0.9 0.8

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 206 311 193 1,158 1,322 10.8 11.2 62.1 77.8 3.3 2.6 0.5 0.5 17.2 18.4 0.4 0.3Styrolution ABS India* Buy 374 492 657 1,007 1,108 8.4 8.7 30.3 35.1 12.3 10.6 1.4 1.2 11.7 12.2 0.6 0.6

TAJ GVK Buy 58 108 362 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.3 6.3 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.5 1.3

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 258 371 397 814 849 17.0 17.6 64.6 69.2 4.0 3.7 0.6 0.5 14.5 13.8 0.1 (0.1)

TTK Healthcare Buy 507 632 393 416 481 4.5 6.1 16.2 25.3 31.3 20.0 3.9 3.4 12.6 18.1 0.8 0.7

Tree House Accumulate 260 297 934 153 194 53.0 52.8 12.4 15.6 21.0 16.6 2.5 2.2 11.8 13.1 6.3 4.8

TVS Srichakra Buy 167 230 128 1,591 1,720 6.1 6.4 24.5 38.3 6.8 4.4 0.7 0.7 10.9 15.9 0.3 0.2

United Spirits Neutral 2,392 - 34,758 12,294 14,162 12.0 12.0 42.1 67.7 56.8 35.3 4.0 3.6 9.1 10.7 3.2 2.7

Vesuvius India* Buy 366 439 743 600 638 20.1 19.4 35.7 36.6 10.3 10.0 1.8 1.6 19.4 17.1 1.0 0.9


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Others

HSIL Buy 77 117 511 2,042 2,363 14.6 14.8 12.3 16.5 6.3 4.7 0.5 0.4 7.6 9.4 0.7 0.6

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on July 31, 2013


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