MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016...

24
2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download www.ipc.be Global Postal Industry Report 2016 KEY FINDINGS

Transcript of MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016...

Page 1: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

2016M

ARKET INTELLIGENCE

24 pagesDecember 2016

download www.ipc.be

Global Postal Industry Report

2016 KEY FINDINGS

Page 2: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016
Page 3: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT KEY FINDINGS

3

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction 4

Key findings 6

Regional figures 7

Global trends 8

Mail 10

Parcels 12

Diversification 14

Stakeholders 16

Outlook 18

IPC Market Intelligence products 20

Notes & sources 22

Page 4: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

INTERNATIONAL POST CORPORATION

4

INTRODUCTION

MESSAGE FROM THE CEO I am delighted to present to you for the fourth year, the key findings of the IPC Global Industry Report. The full report provides the most informative analysis of performance within the global postal sector as it responds to the trends of globalisation, digital substitution, the ongoing acceptance and adoption of e-commerce and in particular, the rapid growth in cross-border e-commerce.

Diversification continues across the postal industry. Mail accounted for 37.7% of global industry revenue in 2015, down from 48.5% in 2010. Apart from mail services, postal operators have pursued growth opportunities in other markets like parcels and express and financial services, with both segments combined accounting for 45.0% of industry revenue in 2015.

In part driven by cross-border e-commerce, international markets accounted for 23.0% of total revenue on average in 2015, having grown at an average CAGR of 7.3% since 2010.

E-commerce remains the most important growth driver for the postal industry. Over the last decade, global online retail sales have increased by more than 20% a year on average and reached €901.6bn in 2015.

We trust that this key findings report will provide a useful insight into the sector.

Holger Winklbauer Chief Executive Officer, IPC

Page 5: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT KEY FINDINGS

5

ABOUT THIS PUBLICATIONThis report provides a distillation of the data and analysis included in the IPC Global Postal Industry Report. This summary includes an overview of the main trends in the postal industry, as well as charts and commentary adapted from the full IPC Global Postal Industry Report.

The IPC Global Postal Industry Report is published yearly and provides a comprehensive and detailed review of the postal industry. Covering 45 postal operators worldwide along with major integrators, it reports on individual performance at the Group and business unit level, as well as factors such as digitisation, e-commerce, human resources and diversification in the postal industry.

The IPC Global Postal Industry Report is available for purchase to stakeholders outside the IPC membership. The IPC Marketing department also produces the IPC Carrier Intelligence Reports, a range of reports providing instant access to critical financial, operational, strategic and market information for 50 leading postal and logistics operators in an easy-to-read, consistent format.

For more information on IPC Market Intelligence products, please see pages 20 and 21 of this report.

To have access to the full range of in-depth analysis offered by IPC, please contact us at [email protected].

ABOUT INTERNATIONAL POST CORPORATION International Post Corporation (IPC) is the leading service provider of the global postal industry that provides leadership by driving service quality, interoperability and business-critical intelligence to support posts in defending existing business and expanding into new growth areas. It is a cooperative association of 24 member postal operators in Asia Pacific, Europe and North America. IPC’s solutions and services are used by over 180 posts worldwide. Since 1989 IPC has set standards for upgrading quality and service performance and developed technological solutions that help members enhance service for international letters, packets and parcels. IPC engages in industry research, creates business-critical intelligence, provides a range of platforms and programmes for member post CEOs and senior management to exchange best practices and discuss strategy. IPC also manages the system for incentive-based payments between postal operators.

For more information please visit our website at www.ipc.be

Page 6: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

INTERNATIONAL POST CORPORATION

6

IPC GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT KEY FINDINGS

2.8%REVENUE GROWTH

-4.8%CHANGE IN MAIL

VOLUME

0.0%MAIL REVENUE

GROWTH

37.7%MAIL SHARE OF

INDUSTRY REVENUE

6.1%PARCELS REVENUE GROWTH

4.4%OPERATING

PROFITABILITY

7.2%GROWTH IN

PARCELS VOLUME

€424.4BNPOSTAL INDUSTRY REVENUE

45POSTS

Page 7: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

Regional averages calculated where data exists for more than half of posts

GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT KEY FINDINGS

7

IPC GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT REGIONAL FIGURES

2015Market Corporate Mail Parcels

Economy Digitisation E-commerce Diversification Revenue Profitability Revenue Volume Revenue Volume

Real GDP ∆ 2014-15

Internet users 2015

Online retail ∆ 2014-15

Non-mail revenue share

2015

Revenue ∆ 2014-15

EBIT margin 2015

Revenue ∆ 2014-15

Volume ∆ 2014-15

Revenue ∆ 2014-15

Volume ∆ 2014-15

EUROPE 2.4% 81.4% 16.9% 44.7% 1.3% 4.8% -2.1% -5.3% 7.4% 9.4%

NORTH AMERICA

1.8% 81.5% 20.9% 33.7% 1.0% -2.5% 1.6% -1.7% - 7.6%

ASIA PACIFIC

3.3% 69.9% 21.5% 51.5% 6.1% 8.3% 5.0% -4.4% 16.2% -0.4%

BRICS + MEXICO

2.4% 50.9% 37.3% 61.2% 4.1% -5.4% -0.5% -3.6% - -

Page 8: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

INTERNATIONAL POST CORPORATION

8

A sluggish global economy, steadily increasing digitisation and rapid growth in e-commerce continue to present both opportunities and challenges for the global postal industry. Despite ongoing mail decline, industry revenue and profitability remain strong as postal operators focus on growth and efficiency initiatives to create long-term shareholder value.

SLOWING GROWTH IN EMERGING MARKETSWhile advanced economies saw a slight pick-up in growth in 2015, the economic slowdown in emerging economies continued as these markets faced significant headwinds, including dampened external demand, declines in commodity prices and the gradual tightening of global financing conditions. According to the IMF, global economic growth was 3.1% in 2015, with advanced and emerging economies growing 1.9% and 4.0% respectively.

GLOBAL TRENDS

1. ECONOMYReal GDP, % change on prior year

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

3.11.9

4.0

World Advanced Emerging

2015 2015 20152005 2005 2005

Sources: 1. IMF

Page 9: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT KEY FINDINGS

9

DIGITISATION ONGOINGMeanwhile, internet penetration continues to rise. The number of global internet users tripled over the last decade and reached 3.2bn in 2015, according to the International Telecommunication Union. While all regions saw internet users increase over the period, Asia Pacific recorded the strongest growth: new technology, improved infrastructure and lower prices have brought connectivity to more than a billion people in the region. As internet penetration in the advanced world remains high, fewer letters are being sent by consumers, businesses and governments alike, with e-substitution continuing to erode the postal industry’s core service of collecting and delivering lettermail.

Digital technology and mobile connectivity have profoundly changed how consumers and businesses interact, particularly in the buying and selling of goods and services. As a result, online shopping is booming: global internet retail sales have grown by more than 20% a year on average since 2005 and reached €901.6bn in 2015 according to Euromonitor International.

STABLE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCERevenue growth for the postal industry remained steady at 2.8% on average in 2015. The average EBIT margin remained strong but dipped to 4.4%, as productivity and efficiency programmes were offset in part by stronger competition and cost pressures. On aggregate, total postal industry revenue reached €424.4bn in 2015, up €11.6bn on 2014 results. Mail revenue remained flat overall, as many posts looked to offset digitisation-driven volume declines with price increases while actively promoting the value of mail – particularly advertising mail – to corporate clients. Parcels and logistics were the two largest growth drivers in 2015, up €4.9bn and €5.0bn respectively.

2. DIGITISATIONGlobal internet users, bn

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Other

201520102005

Europe

N. America

Asia Pacific

Share of population

43.8%29.2%15.8%

3. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEIndustry average, %

2.9 2.8 2.8

0

1

2

3

20142013 2015

EBITmargin

Revenuegrowth

5.1 4.45.0

4. GROWTH DRIVERSIndustry revenue, €bn

0.3

1.55.0

4.9

Parcels &express

2015

424.4

OtherLogistics& freight

Financialservices

Mail

-0.1

2014

412.8

Sources: 2. ITU, Euromonitor International

3. Operator reports, member questionnaires

4. Operator reports, member questionnaires, OANDA

Page 10: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

INTERNATIONAL POST CORPORATION

10

E-substitution continues to drive the decline in global mail volume as consumers, businesses and governments switch to digital alternatives. To ensure a high-quality, sustainable service for all citizens, and as industry regulation evolves, posts worldwide have looked to boost efficiency, leverage new technology and promote and increase the value of mail.

MAIL

Sources: 5. Operator reports, member questionnaires, IMF

6. Operator reports, member questionnaires

DIGITISATION DRIVES VOLUME DECLINEThe digital revolution has transformed the way the world interacts. As internet penetration steadily increases and smartphones become a part of everyday life, businesses and governments are shifting more and more services online. This dramatic shift has disrupted industries and weakened traditional business models across the globe. While more than half the world’s population remains offline, the digital divide is narrowing and markets are expected to become increasingly dynamic in future.

The decline in mail volume fell to 4.8% on average with three quarters of posts seeing declines. Since 2005, aggregate mail volume has fallen by more than a quarter and the historically strong positive relationship with economic growth has weakened. The shift from physical letters to digital alternatives, as well as market liberalisation in some countries, have impacted all mail segments. While transactional mail, advertising mail and periodicals declined over the period, the speed of decline varied across products. In contrast, mail revenue has remained relatively steady over the past decade.

6. VOLUMETotal mail volume, % change on prior year

Average

-2.4-2.8

-4.8-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

20132014

2015

5. HISTORICAL VOLUMEMail volume, revenue & GDP indices, 2005 = 100

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

15140807062005 1312111009

73

104

GDP

Mail volume

Mail revenue

116

Page 11: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

Posts are looking to make advertising mail services more appealing to clients in the face of stiff competition from digital advertising channels

GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT KEY FINDINGS

11

ADVERTISING MAIL REMAINS IMPORTANTPosts are looking to make advertising mail services more appealing to clients in the face of stiff competition from digital advertising channels. Some are rebranding and repackaging advertising services, taking advantage of the opportunities of multichannel marketing, while others are targeting fast-growing sectors, such as SMEs.

Significantly in the world’s biggest advertising market, the United States, between 2010 and 2015, USPS reported stable development in advertising mail volumes, indicating that the downward trend in advertising mail volumes as a result of e-substitution has levelled off in recent years.

MAIL REVENUE FLAT IN 2015Mail revenue was flat on average in 2015, despite more than half of the 45 posts covered reporting revenue growth of above 1%. Posts from emerging markets accounted for eight of the ten fastest growing mail units in 2015, driven by stronger economic growth and lower e-substitution.

7. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEAverage mail business unit performance, %

1.5

1.8

0.00.0

1.0

2.0

0.5

1.5

201520142013

EBITmargin

Revenuegrowth

5.7 5.36.0

Sources: 7. Operator reports, member questionnaires

Page 12: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

INTERNATIONAL POST CORPORATION

12

PARCELS

As the rise of e-commerce boosts parcel volumes worldwide and customers demand faster, cheaper and more convenient deliveries, companies as diverse as UPS, Amazon and Uber are fighting for the prize. In response, posts are leveraging their core assets and developing a strong focus on innovation to increase their share of the growing parcels market.

STRONG E-COMMERCE GROWTH Consumers continue to buy more products online, and increasingly via smartphones. Since 2005, global internet retail sales have grown above 20% a year on average according to Euromonitor International, much faster than traditional store-based sales. Mobile e-commerce (m-commerce) is also on the rise and accounted for a third of internet retail sales in 2015. Online retail is still relatively immature however, representing only 7.3% of total retail. E-commerce is clearly the most important future growth driver for the postal industry, as online shopping boosts demand for parcel delivery services worldwide.

8. E-COMMERCEGlobal retail sales, % share of total

94

92

100

88

96

0

86

90

98

13 1411100908 1507062005

Other

Internet

Store-based

12

of which: Mobile

Sources: 8. Euromonitor International

Page 13: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT KEY FINDINGS

13

REVENUE GROWTH CONTINUESParcels and express revenue grew by 6.1% on average in 2015, roughly on par with previous years’ results. Most posts reported stable or improving revenue, with organic, e-commerce-driven growth in business-to-consumer (B2C) volume commonly reported as the key factor driving performance. The dip in average profitability in 2015 was in part due to pressure on prices, as both posts and their competitors balance network investment with cost efficiency to offer the most attractive delivery rates to price-sensitive customers.

INCREASING PARCEL VOLUMESOn aggregate, the industry’s parcel volume more than doubled over the last decade, growing at a rate far above economic growth. While seemingly impressive, the growth in parcels delivered by posts still lags behind that of e-commerce sales which quadrupled in size over the same period. The trend continued in 2015: as the majority of posts reported higher parcel volumes, growth in industry volume accelerated to 7.2% on average, more than double that of world GDP (3.1%) but much slower than internet retail sales (24.4%).

FURTHER GROWTH POTENTIALIn addition to rising domestic B2C volumes sent by e-retailers both large and small, the fast-growing cross-border e-commerce market remains a key potential growth driver for posts. According to a joint analysis from Alibaba’s research arm AliResearch and Accenture, the global cross-border B2C e-commerce market was worth close to €280bn in 2015, up 30% on 2014 and expected to grow by more than 25% a year to 2020. While international parcels represent less than a fifth of total parcel volume on average across operators, and only a fraction of that for some, many posts continue to report increases in cross-border deliveries.

9. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEAverage parcels & express business unit performance, %

6.1 6.4 6.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

20142013 2015EBIT

margin

Revenuegrowth

6.6 5.66.4

10. VOLUMETotal parcels & express volume, % change on prior year

5.84.8

7.2

012345678

20142013 2015

11. HISTORICAL VOLUMEAggregate parcels volume, GDP & e-commerce sales indices, 2005= 100

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

151413121110090807062005

E-commerce

Parcelsvolume

GDP

228

402

112

Sources: 9-10. Operator reports, member questionnaires

11. Operator reports, member questionnaires, Euromonitor International, IMF

Page 14: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

INTERNATIONAL POST CORPORATION

14

DIVERSIFICATION

After years of structural decline, mail now accounts for less than half of overall industry revenue. Through investment and innovation, pilots and partnerships, posts are leveraging existing assets and emerging technologies to enhance their services and pursue growth outside the industry’s core.

POSTAL INDUSTRY CONTINUES TO DIVERSIFY As core mail volume continues to decline, posts have looked to grow and diversify revenues in three ways: via expansion of existing operations, by acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships, or a mix of both. As a result, diversification is on the rise with non-mail revenue accounting for an increasingly large share of global industry revenue. Despite the trend towards diversification, mail remains the industry’s core revenue source and accounted for more than a third of total revenue in 2015.

13. BUSINESSDIVERSIFICATIONIndustry revenue share, %

6.6

10.7

25.9

19.1

37.7

Other

Logistics & freight

Financial services

Parcels & express

Mail

Mail min-max

97 8

Sources: 12-13. Operator reports, member questionnaires

12. HISTORICAL DIVERSIFICATIONIndustry revenue share, %

48.5

37.7

14.6

19.1

17.0 25.9

10.010.7

9.9 6.6

40

10

0

30

20

50

60

70

80

90

100

Mail

Financial services

Logistics & freight

Other

2010 2015

Parcels & express

Page 15: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT KEY FINDINGS

15

INVESTING AND MODERNISINGWhile mail is no longer the most significant source of revenue for many of the largest operators, the degree of diversification varies widely across the industry: in 2015, mail represented over 90% of revenue for some posts and less than 10% for others. Most posts are becoming more diversified however: over two thirds saw mail revenue share fall since 2010, as many have looked to strengthen positions in growth markets by investing in e-commerce, broadening financial services and improving retail networks.

From modernising mail operations to buying innovative start-ups, posts worldwide are increasingly investing in new and existing assets to foster future growth: industry capex has risen by more than a third since 2010, driven by growth in Asia Pacific. With many posts investing in mail sorting facilities and equipment to improve efficiency, mail accounted for around a third of industry capex, though the share ranged from 7% to 92% across posts. The combined parcels and logistics segments also accounted for a third of total capex, as posts have expanded network capacity and integrated mail, parcels and logistics operations in response to the growth in e-commerce.

ACQUISITONS ON THE RISEAcquisition activity has accelerated, with posts buying controlling stakes in more companies in 2015 than previous years. In line with capex trends, a large share of companies purchased by posts were operating within the parcels and logistics segments. Moreover, while over half of acquisitions were of domestic companies, more than a third were of firms from nearby or neighbouring countries as posts continued to seek international growth.

14. INVESTMENTCapital expenditure 2010-15, % share of total

25.5

6.0

9.7

22.5

36.3

Other

Financial services

Logistics & freight

Parcels & express

Mail

Mail min-max

792

Sources: 14. Operator reports

15. Operator reports, press releases and websites

15. ACQUISITIONS & DIVESTMENTSAcquisitions & divestments, cumulative totals

0

50

100

150

200

2009 2010 201520122011 2013 2014

120

98

8576

42

24

11

198

159

130

107

69

44

25

Divestments

Acquisitions

Page 16: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

INTERNATIONAL POST CORPORATION

16

Ongoing societal trends continue to impact the global postal industry. Working together with stakeholders to improve economic and social outcomes, posts have looked to create a flexible, diverse and motivated workforce and deliver important government services in both urban and rural areas.

STAKEHOLDERS

Sources: 16. Operator reports, member questionnaires

EMPLOYEE AGE AND SERVICE PROFILEReflecting wider demographic trends, the average age of the postal industry’s workforce is on the rise. In 2015, over a third of employees were aged above 50 on average while those under 30 accounted for only a tenth. Moreover, roughly one third of staff had worked for their employer for more than 20 years. As many workers approach retirement, posts continue to balance the need for younger employees capable of performing manual operations with the experience that older workers can offer.

16. EMPLOYEE PROFILEAverage share of total employees, %

10.6

36.8

52.6

34.8

23.6

41.6

10-20

Under 10

Over 20Over 50

30-50

Under 30

Employee age Years of service

Page 17: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT KEY FINDINGS

17

Sources: 17. Operator reports, member questionnaires

17. EMPLOYEE DIVERSITYAverage female share of total, %

37.434.2

22.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

ManagersEmployees ExecutivesMin-max

0 - 5214 - 8515 - 59

EMPLOYEE DIVERSITYGender equality remains a priority for the postal industry which has traditionally attracted a higher proportion of male employees in frontline roles. From leadership programmes to recruitment quotas, posts have introduced a range of initiatives in line with government-led schemes to promote female employment and achieve equality in decision-making roles. The postal industry is outperforming the wider market in terms of hiring women in leading positions, with eight of the posts assessed having a female CEO at the end of Q3 2016.

There is however still work to do: in 2015, women accounted for just over a third of total employees on average and a lower share still for management and board-level positions. Some posts report challenges in meeting quotas when recruiting internally for frontline roles, but higher success rates for senior management positions where recruitment is mixed between internal and external candidates.

The postal industry is outperforming the wider market in terms of hiring women in leading positions

Page 18: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

18. DIGITISATIONGlobal population, bn

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2015 2020

7.3

Online

Offline

7.7

+0.9

Online share of total

51.8%42.2%

INTERNATIONAL POST CORPORATION

18

OUTLOOK

Sources: 18. eMarketer, Euromonitor International

19. Euromonitor International

E-COMMERCE AND DIGITISATION DRIVING CHANGEBy 2020, more than half the world’s population will use the internet, though the digital divide will still remain wide. Governments are looking to tackle the issue by increasing coverage and speed while reducing access costs, particularly in poorer and more remote regions. The rise in digital connectivity is also changing market dynamics. According to ZenithOptimedia, the advertising market will grow faster than the global economy to 2018, driven by expansion in emerging Asian markets and strong growth in internet adspend.

Important economic, demographic and technological trends are driving rapid change in market dynamics across the globe. As posts continue to transform mail, grow parcels and pursue opportunities outside the core, and despite increased competition from both established and emerging players, the postal industry remains on track for future growth.

19. E-COMMERCEGlobal internet retail sales, €bn

902

1,800

1,600

1,000

0

1,200

1,400

2,000

200

400

600

8001,834

Asia

Pacific

North

America

Other

Europe

Food/drink

Other

Apparel

Electronics

Media

Region Product

Breakdown by:

Mobile

Non-mobile

Device

20202015

Page 19: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT KEY FINDINGS

19

20. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEHalf-year financial results, industry average, %

1.2

3.0

1.5

0

1

2

3

H1 2015H1 2014 H1 2016

EBIT margin

Revenue growth

6.0 5.87.0

Sources: 20-21. Operator reports

ON TRACK FOR FUTURE GROWTHAs e-commerce drives growth in B2C parcels and as tech-savvy consumers demand faster, cheaper and more convenient deliveries, innovative companies will look to increase their share of the growing B2C delivery market. The contrast between mail and parcels performance is also set to continue. Despite the ongoing decline in letter mail volume, mail divisions returned to growth on average in H1 2016 with revenue up 0.5% year on year. Parcels divisions saw revenue growth slow to 2.8%, with growth drivers varying across operators.

Leading positions in mail and parcel services and successful debt-reduction and transformation programmes have been cited by credit ratings agencies as key factors contributing to posts’ strong financial positions. The market remains upbeat about the postal industry’s future prospects with analysts citing e-commerce as the key to growth.

21. BUSINESS SEGMENTSHalf-year financial results, industry average, %

5.3

7.1

2.8

-1.0-1.0

6

4

2

0

-2

8

H1’16H1’15H1’14H1’16

0.5

H1’15H1’14

EBIT margin

Revenue growth

Mail Parcels

12.5 12.8 12.8 5.9 7.0 7.9

Page 20: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

INTERNATIONAL POST CORPORATION

20

IPC GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT The IPC Global Postal Industry Report is the sector’s most comprehensive, holistic and in-depth report on postal industry trends and performance.

• Over 130 pages of industry-specific analysis updated and refreshed each year

• Worldwide coverage of 45 postal operators• In-depth review and comparison of corporate and business unit

performance• Solid foundation to benchmark performance and better understand

industry trends• 2016 report available for purchase and immediate download

IPC MARKET INTELLIGENCE PRODUCTS

19

GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT 2016

IN FOCUS1.1

NZ

PH

SE DK

LV LU

NO NL

PT PL

KR

TR SK

HK

UK

JP ID

GR

HU IE

IS

IT LT

CY

EE DE

CZ

FR FI

ES

TH

SG

AT

AU

MX RU

IN

TW

BR

CA ZA

CN

US CH

MY

BE

AmericaNorth

Europe

Asia Pa

cific

BRICS+Mexico

45posts

Emerging Advanced

economies

Operating in

Government dept. State-owned enterprise Private corporation

Legal Status

Listed on stock exchange

SharesNot listed

More than €10bn

€1-10bn

Less than €1bn

Annual revenue

Decline

Stable

Growth

Revenue performance

Positive

Near zero

Negative

Operating profitability

62

INTERNATIONAL POST CORPORATION

FIG. 1.2 REVENUE SEGMENTS, 2014-15

SGEE

MY

ESZA

GR

LT FI

TR NZ

PH HU

IN PL

CN SK

IT CY

FDX CH

MX BE

TH SE/DK

RU UK

BR JP

DE

IDIS

FRTNT

AUNO LU CZ HK US IE KR PT

CAUPS

ATLV

TW

NL

OtherLogistics & freight

RetailFinancial servicesParcels & express

MailTotal revenue

Growth

Stable

Decline

Revenue growth in the postal industry remained steady in 2015, with strong performances for parcel and logistics operations driving overall growth. Posts operating in fast-emerging markets continued to outperform the industry as a whole, with all BRICS+M operators except South African Post Office seeing total revenues grow over 5%.

In 2015, 26 out of 45 posts saw total revenue growth of over 1%. Of these, 12 reported stable or growing revenue across all reported segments. Beyond parcels, for which only two posts (Cyprus Post and South African Post Office) reported falling revenue, revenue was mixed across other business divisions. Just under two thirds of posts reported revenue growth for mail services. While low interest rates hampered growth for many posts’ financial service divisions, ten out of 22 operators did report growth in this segment in 2015.

Those seeing fastest growth in 2015 were small, diversified posts in Northern Europe and Asia Pacific. Omniva and Singapore Post saw stable revenue performance for mail divisions through e-commerce-related services, and growth for all other revenue segments.

Two posts saw total revenue decline in 2015, despite reporting growth for both mail and parcels divisions. For Correos, overall revenue decline was the result of lower government contributions, while Magyar Posta’s performance was impacted by low interest rates reducing financial service revenue. PostNL saw stable revenue performance despite declining mail revenue, with falls in that sector largely offset by parcels growth.

Notes: Analysis based on corporate revenue and business area revenue. Business area breakdown does not always match business

unit breakdown. Stable revenue defined as a percentage point change of between +1 and -1. Blank segments in chart indicate no

volume or data unavailable.

Sources: Operator annual reports, member questionnaires, IPC analysis.

26POSTS RECORDING REVENUE GROWTH IN 2015

2016M

ARKET INTELLIGENCE

138 pagesNovember 2016

download www.ipc.be

A global review of industry performance and trends

GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT 2016

more info

Page 21: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT KEY FINDINGS

21

IPC CARRIER INTELLIGENCE REPORTS IPC Carrier Intelligence Reports provide instant access to critical financial, operational, strategic and market information for 50 leading postal and parcels operators from Europe, Asia Pacific, the Americas and Africa in an easy-to-read, consistent format.

The reports provide operator-specific analysis on topics of key strategic importance for the postal sector, including information on the macro environment, corporate governance and strategy, consolidated and business unit performance, corporate social responsibility, business outlook and strategic targets.

IPC Carrier Intelligence Reports have been specifically designed to meet the market intelligence needs of industry executives as well as consultants and analysts engaged in research throughout the postal and parcels sectors. By compiling key quantitative and qualitative data for each operator, the reports save valuable resources for in-house strategic and market analysts.

The reports are available by annual subscription giving participants access to all 50 reports. To register your company for access to all IPC Carrier Intelligence Reports, or if you require further information, please contact [email protected].

For more information, visit our website: https://www.ipc.be/en/programmes/market-intelligence.

more info

Page 22: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

INTERNATIONAL POST CORPORATION

22

DATA SOURCESThis report provides a summary of the key findings of the IPC Global Postal Industry Report and relies on a variety of internal and external sources.

INTERNAL• IPC member questionnaires• IPC Statistical Database• IPC Carrier Intelligence Reports• IPC Market Flash

EXTERNAL• Operator annual and interim reports• Operator websites and press releases• eMarketer• Euromonitor International• International Monetary Fund• International Telecommunication Union• OANDA

GRAPH NOTESThis report includes data for the following 45 postal operators: An Post; Australia Post; bpost; Canada Post; China Post; Chunghwa Post*; Correios Brasil*; Correos; Correos de México; CTT-Correios de Portugal; Cyprus Post; Czech Post; Deutsche Post DHL; Hellenic Post-ELTA; Hongkong Post*; Iceland Post; India Post*; Japan Post; Korea Post; Latvian Post; Le Groupe La Poste; Lithuania Post; Magyar Posta; New Zealand Post; Omniva; Österreichische Post; PHLPost*; Posten Norge; POST Luxembourg; Poczta Polska; Pos Indonesia*; Pos Malaysia; Poste Italiane; Posti Group; PostNL; PostNord; PTT-Turkish Post; Royal Mail; Russian Post; Singapore Post; Slovenska Posta*; South African Post Office*; Swiss Post; Thailand Post; United States Postal Service.

Sample sizes vary from chart to chart due to data availability. Unless otherwise stated, all averages refer to an unweighted mean for all posts reporting consistent data for the entire period covered in the chart. Operators marked with an asterisk (*) had not published data covering the full 2015 period at the time of analysis; data for these posts are based on the latest periods for which data exists. Where required and unless otherwise stated, local currencies were converted into euros at 2015 exchange rates from OANDA. Regional categories for external data such as GDP are based on the source’s regional definition and include countries in addition to those related to the 45 national postal operators in this report.

For further information, please contact [email protected]

NOTES & SOURCES

Page 23: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016
Page 24: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2016 KEY FINDINGS/media/documents/public/markets/mi products/i… · 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 24 pages December 2016 download Global Postal Industry Report 2016

INTE

RN

ATIO

NA

L PO

ST C

OR

POR

ATIO

NG

LOB

AL

POST

AL

IND

UST

RY

REP

OR

T

International Post Corporation

Avenue du Bourget 44 1130 Brussels, Belgium

Tel +32 (0)2 724 72 11 Fax +32 (0)2 724 72 32

www.ipc.be [email protected]