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Transcript of Market From Canadian Perspective

Study No. 2

Market Outlook in the International Fish & Seafood Sector Canadian Perspective

by H. M. Johnson and Associates

November, 2002

FOREWORDThis study is one of seven background studies commissioned or prepared by the federal Office of the Commissioner for Aquaculture Development (OCAD) as part of its review of the federal role in aquaculture. In order to provide a report on the federal role for the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans, the Office of the Commissioner has undertaken a series of background studies pertaining to aquaculture. The studies are: Study 1 : Current Status and Potential of the Canadian Aquaculture Industry: a review of the context in which the Canadian aquaculture industry is evolving today, and an assessment of its potential for future growth; International Fish and Seafood Markets: a Canadian perspective: a review of general trends in international fisheries products markets (commercial fisheries and aquaculture) in light of major markets targeted by Canadian aquaculture products; Market Outlook in the International Fish and Seafood Sector: Alternative Products/Uses and Food Safety Issues: a review of general trends affecting the value-added of fisheries products, new uses for products derived from aquaculture and commercial fisheries (pharmaceutical products, nutraceuticals, etc.), and issues affecting food safety, especially in terms of consumer behaviour and regulatory changes affecting international trade; Review of Provincial and Territorial Program and Services in the Aquaculture Sector: a review and analysis of all programs and services provided to the Canadian aquaculture sector by provincial government ministries/departments and agencies; Review of Federal Programs/Initiatives in support of Aquaculture: a review and analysis of all programs and services provided to the Canadian aquaculture sector by various federal government departments and agencies; Federal Programs and Services for Five Resource-Based Industries: a comparative analysis of how the aquaculture sector is treated by the Canadian government, in comparison with four other primary sectors : agriculture, forestry, commercial fisheries and biotechnology; The International Context for Aquaculture Development: Growth in Production and Demand and Long-Term Outlook: a review and comparative analysis of the international context and resulting major trends that will affect the development of aquaculture at the global, national and regional levels; includes an overview of policies, governance structures, programs and services in place in various countries to provide a framework and support for industry, and to foster smooth development of aquaculture; and, the lessons for Canada.

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Table of Contents Market Outlook in the International Fish & Seafood Sector Canadian PerspectivePage

Section I: Supply Trends

1. World Supply Situation 2. Top Ten Seafood Trading Countries 3. Current Canadian Seafood Production Situation and Outlook A. Capture Fisheries Future Outlook B. Canadian Aquaculture Production Increasing Future Outlook 4. Canadas International Seafood Trade A. Imports Keep Rising B. Export Value Sets a Record 5. Total Canadian Seafood Supply Canadian Supply Outlook and Forecast 6. SWOT Analysis of Canadas Fisheries and Aquaculture Industry

1 1 5 13 13 18 20 22 24 24 27 33 33 35 39 39 40 49 55 58 67 70 70 72 73 74 1 13 14 14 15 16 16 17 17 18

Section II: Trends in Leading Seafood Markets1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1. 2. 3. 4. Canadian Seafood Consumption United States Japan European Union China Forecast World Seafood Supply and Demand United States European Union Japan China 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

Section III: Trade Barriers for Canadian Seafood Products

Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure

World Fisheries and Aquaculture Production 1991-2000 Canadian Fishery Production 1980-2001 Canadian Fishery Landings 1992-2001 Canadian Groundfish Landings 1990-2001 Canadian Wild Salmon Landings 1992-2001 Canadian Herring/Sardine Landings 1992-2001 Canadian Lobster Landings 1990-2001 Canadian Snow/Queen Crab Landings 1990-2001 Canadian Shrimp Landings 1990-2001 Canadian Scallop Landings 1990-2001

Graphs

H.M. Johnson & Associates

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Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure

Canadian Aquaculture Production Value 1990-2001 Canadian Aquaculture Production Volume 1990-2001 Canadian Seafood Imports 1991-2001 Canadas Top Seafood Imports by Value Canadian Seafood Imports by Volume, 2000 versus 2001 Canadian Seafood Exports by Value Canadas Top Seafood Exports by Volume Canadas Top Seafood Exports by Leading Markets Canadian Seafood Supply 1991-2001 Falling Shrimp Prices Spur Consumption Farmed Salmon Prices Recover 1999-2002 U.S. Seafood Consumption Per Capita 1980-2001 U.S. Seafood Consumption by Product Category 2001 U.S. Fresh and Frozen Seafood Consumption by Product Category U.S. Protein Consumption 1970-2001 Japanese Seafood Supply 1992-2001 Japanese Per Capita Seafood Supply 1992-2001 China - Marine Products Imports 1991-2000 Actual and Forecast Aquaculture Outputs and Commercial Landings Figure 30. Forecast U.S. Seafood Demand Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Top 20 World Wild (Capture) Species 1994-2000 Leading Countries - Capture Fishery Top 10 Seafood Trading Countries International Trade in Fishery Commodities Canadian Aquaculture Production Leading Species Canadian Seafood Demand Forecast Canadas Per Capita Seafood Consumption Leading U.S. Supermarket Chains Leading U.S. Seafood Restaurant Chains Top Ten U.S. Seafoods 1997-2001 Leading Japanese Seafood Imports 2000-2001 European Union Seafood Consumption Seafood Consumption by Category (1999) Chinas Imports of Canadian Seafood

11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29.

20 20 24 25 26 28 28 29 33 40 41 45 46 46 48 51 53 64 68 69 2 3 5 12 21 34 39 42 43 47 52 55 56 65

Tables

H.M. Johnson & Associates

International Fish & Seafood Markets A Canadian PerspectiveSection I: Supply Trends1. World Supply SituationFrom 1991 to 2000, world production of fish and shellfish, both from capture (wild) fisheries and aquaculture, increased 33% to 130.4 million metric tonnes. (See Figure 1) The increase in production has come primarily from two sectors: industrial fishing and aquaculture. Catches from most fisheries that make up the bulk of international seafood trade have been stagnant or have declined over the past decade. On a per capita basis, world seafood production has declined and any future increases in supply will come through aquaculture. According to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) the total 20001 world production included 94.8 million metric tonnes from capture fisheries and 35.6 million metric tonnes from aquaculture. When production of sea vegetables such as seaweed is included (estimated at 11 million metric tonnes wet weight), total aquaculture output exceeds 46.6 mmt.

Figure 1. World Fisheries and Aquaculture Production 1991 2000140 120

Million Metric Tons

100 80 60 40 20 0 1991 13.7 84.4 98.1 1992 15.4 85.3 100.7 1993 17.8 86.6 104.4 1994 20.9 91.7 112.6 1995 24.4 92.0 116.4 1996 26.7 93.5 120.2 1997 28.6 93.9 122.5 1998 30.5 87.3 117.8 1999 33.4 93.2 126.6 2000 35.6 94.8 130.4

Aquaculture Wild Harvest Total

Source: FAO

1

The last year for which data is available.

2 Market Outlook in the International Fish & Seafood Sector

For 2000, the FAO estimates that 74.1 percent of world fishery products were for human consumption with the balance utilized as fish meal and fish oil. Applying the 74 percent figure would result in a seafood supply for 2000 of 96.6 million metric tonnes with aquaculture contributing just over 37 percent of the total.

Leading Fisheries ProducersBy a wide margin, China is the worlds leading fisheries producer (see Table 2) accounting for almost a third of the worlds production. Since 1980, when China instituted its market reform policy, the countrys capture fishery catch has increased from approximately 4 million metric tonnes to just over 17 million metric tonnes in the year 2001. Of this total, about 84% came from saltwater fisheries and 16% from freshwater fisheries. Chinas rapid growth in production, however, has come at a price, as many of the countrys fisheries resources have been overfished. In an effort to conserve its fish stocks, China has officially adapted a zero-growth policy on ocean catches. In addition, the Chinese government has instituted seasonal fishing bans along most of its coast and in some lakes and rivers to protect spawning stocks.

Thousand Metric Tonnes SPECIES 1 Anchoveta (Peruvian anchovy) 2 Alaska pollock 3 Atlantic herring 4 Skipjack tuna 5 Japanese anchovy 6 Chilean jack mackerel 7 Largehead hairtail 8 Chub mackerel 9 Capelin 10 Blue whiting 11 Yellowfin tuna 12 Atlantic cod 13 European pilchard (sardine) 14 Argentine shortfin squid 15 Araucanian herring 16 Atlantic mackerel 17 European sprat 18 Akiami paste shrimp 19 European anchovy 20 Gulf menhaden Source: FAO FishStat

Table 1. Top 20 World Wild (Capture) Species 1994 20001994 12,521 4,375 1,930 1,498 821 4,262 1,081 1,531 884 495 1,107 1,249 1,167 506 341 855 580 345 504 767 1995 8,645 4,809 2,354 1,573 972 4,995 1,244 1,581 749 542 1,055 1,270 1,220 521 127 794 602 407 619 472 1996 8,864 4,548 2,329 1,588 1,254 4,379 1,283 2,178 1,527 631 958 1,342 996 656 447 560 672 4