Market Briefing: CurrenciesJun 05, 2020 · Euro & Pound 2 Swiss Franc & Krona 3 Yen & Won 4...

Market Briefing:Currencies

Yardeni Research, Inc.

February 1, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Mali Quintana480-664-1333

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com


Trade-Weighted Dollar 1Euro & Pound 2Swiss Franc & Krona 3Yen & Won 4Canadian & Australian Dollars 5Real & Peso 6Rupee & Rupiah 7Ringitt & Yuan 8Baht & Pesos 9Lira & Ruble 10Peso 11Rand & Hryvnia 12Misc. Exchange Rates 13-14

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2285

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

JP MORGAN NOMINAL BROAD EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE(2010=100, daily)

2/1

* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States.Source: JP Morgan.

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Figure 1.

73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2360

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

12/31

12/31

FED’S TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEXES(daily)

Major*(3/73=100)

Broad**(1/97=100)

* Major index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Australia, Canada, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland,United Kingdom,

** Broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China,Colombia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Spain, Saudi Arabia,Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

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Figure 2.

Trade-Weighted Dollar

Page 1 / February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com


99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.70

.85

1.00

1.15

1.30

1.45

1.60

1.75

.70

.85

1.00

1.15

1.30

1.45

1.60

1.75

APPD NIRP APP+

QT

APP-Forever

PEPP

PEPP+

2/1

EUROZONE: US$/EURO

D = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro (7/26/12). NIRP = negative interest-rate policy (6/5/2014).APP (1/22/15). APP+ = expansion and extension of APP (3/10/16, corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16). QT (12/31/18). APP-Forever (11/1/19)20 billion euros per month. PEPP (3/18/20) 750 billion euros open-ended asset purchases. PEPP+ (6/4/20) expanded by 600 billion euros.

Euro (1.21)

200-day moving average. Source: Haver Analytics.

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Figure 3.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2/1

UK: US$/POUND

200-day moving average

Source: Haver Analytics.

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Figure 4.

Euro & Pound



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

.9

.8

.7

.6

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

.9

.8

.7

.6

2/1

SWITZERLAND: SWISS FRANC/$(inverted scale)

Swiss Franc (0.90)

200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.

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Figure 5.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2211.5

10.5

9.5

8.5

7.5

6.5

5.5

11.5

10.5

9.5

8.5

7.5

6.5

5.5

1/29

SWEDEN: KRONA/$(inverted scale)

Krona (8.36)


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Figure 6.

Swiss Franc & Krona



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22160

140

120

100

80

60

160

140

120

100

80

60

Z A

QQE QQEE NIRP

YC

1/29

JAPAN:YEN/US$(inverted scale)

Yen (104.69)

200-day moving averageNote: Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy. A = Markets start to anticipate Abenomics. QQE is Quantitative and Qualitative Easing.QQEE is the expanded and extended version of QQE. NIRP = Negative interest rate policy. YC = Yield curve targeting.Source: Haver Analytics.

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Figure 7.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

1/29

SOUTH KOREA: WON/US$(inverted scale)

Won (1118.80)


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Figure 8.

Yen & Won



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

.9

.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

.9

.8

1/29

CANADA: C$/US$(inverted scale)

Canadian Dollar (1.28)


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Figure 9.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

.8

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

.8

2/1

AUSTRALIA: A$/US$(inverted scale)

Australian Dollar (1.31)


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Figure 10.

Canadian & Australian Dollars



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226.0

5.6

5.2

4.8

4.4

4.0

3.6

3.2

2.8

2.4

2.0

1.6

1.2

.8

.4

6.0

5.6

5.2

4.8

4.4

4.0

3.6

3.2

2.8

2.4

2.0

1.6

1.2

.8

.4

1/29

BRAZIL: REAL/US$(inverted scale)

Real (5.46)


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Figure 11.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

1/29

MEXICO: EXCHANGE RATE(dollars per peso)

Peso (0.05)

200-day moving averageSource: MSCI and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 12.

Real & Peso



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2285

75

65

55

45

35

25

85

75

65

55

45

35

25

2/1

INDIA: RUPEE/$(inverted scale)

Rupee (73.04)


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Figure 13.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2220000

15000

10000

5000

0

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

1/29

INDONESIA: RUPIA/$(inverted scale)

Rupia (14030.00)

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Figure 14.

Rupee & Rupiah



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1/29

MALAYSIA: RINGGIT/$(inverted scale)

Ringgit (4.04)


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Figure 15.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20228.4

8.0

7.6

7.2

6.8

6.4

6.0

5.6

8.4

8.0

7.6

7.2

6.8

6.4

6.0

5.6

2/1

CHINA: YUAN/US$(inverted scale)

Yuan (6.46)


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Figure 16.

Ringitt & Yuan



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2260

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

1/29

THAILAND: BAHT/$(inverted scale)

Baht (29.87)


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Figure 17.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2260

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

2/1

PHILIPPINES: PESOS/$(inverted scale)

Pesos (48.07)


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Figure 18.

Baht & Pesos



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 228.5

8.0

7.5

7.0

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

.5

.0

-.5

-1.0

-1.5

8.5

8.0

7.5

7.0

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

.5

.0

-.5

-1.0

-1.5

1/29

TURKEY: LIRA/$(inverted scale)

Lira (7.30)


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Figure 19.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2290

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

1/29

RUSSIA: RUBLE/$(inverted scale)

Ruble (75.45)


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Figure 20.

Lira & Ruble



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2290

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

1/29

ARGENTINA: PESO/$ (inverted scale)

Peso (87.26)


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Figure 21.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22900

850

800

750

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

900

850

800

750

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

1/29

CHILE: PESO/$)(inverted scale)

Peso (732.28)


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Figure 22.

Peso



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2219.5

17.0

14.5

12.0

9.5

7.0

4.5

2.0

19.5

17.0

14.5

12.0

9.5

7.0

4.5

2.0

1/29

SOUTH AFRICA: RAND/$(inverted scale)

Rand (15.05)


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Figure 23.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

10

20

30

40

0

10

20

30

40

2/1

UKRAINE: HRYVNIA/$(inverted scale)

Hryvnia (28.13)


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Figure 24.

Rand & Hryvnia



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

AQQE QQEE NIRP

YC

1/29

JAPAN: US$/100YEN(daily)

Yen (0.96)

Note: A = Markets start to anticipate Abenomics. QQE is Quantitative and Qualitative Easing. QQEE is the expanded and extended version of QQE.NIRP = negative interest rates. YC = Yield curve targeting.



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Figure 25.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

.9

.8

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

.9

.8

1/29

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES(inverted scale)

Canada(C$/US$) (1.3)

Australia(A$/US$) (1.3)


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Figure 26.

Misc. Exchange Rates



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1/29

SWITZERLAND: SWISS FRANC/EURO


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Figure 27.

Misc. Exchange Rates



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Market Briefing: CurrenciesJun 05, 2020 · Euro & Pound 2 Swiss Franc & Krona 3 Yen & Won 4...

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