MARKET BRIEF: EARTH OBSERVATION ... Feb 10, 2020 ¢  SILICON VALLEY 2020 MARKET BRIEF:...

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Transcript of MARKET BRIEF: EARTH OBSERVATION ... Feb 10, 2020 ¢  SILICON VALLEY 2020 MARKET BRIEF:...

  • SMALLSAT SYMPOSIUM,

    SILICON VALLEY 2020

    MARKET BRIEF: EARTH OBSERVATION

    Adam Keith

  • SMALLSAT SYMPOSIUM, SILICON VALLEY 2020 © Euroconsult 2020

    2

    WHO WE ARE?

    THEMATIC

    TRAINING

    EXECUTIVE

    SUMMITS

    THEMATIC

    RESEARCH

    PRODUCTS

    TAILORED

    CONSULTING

    SERVICES

    Corporate strategy

    Government programs

    Due diligence

    Feasibility studies

    RFI/RFP process

    Program monitoring

    Support to operatins

    600 clients

    in 50 countries, 7 global locations

  • SMALLSAT SYMPOSIUM, SILICON VALLEY 2020 © Euroconsult 2020

    3

    MAJOR SHIFT IN EO SATELLITE MANUFACTURING*

    2009-2018 2019-2028

    ~$25B

    ~$110M

    ~$69B

    ~$49M

    ~>227 ~1402

    50KG (NON-METEO)

    Satellites

    Manufacturing

    Revenue

    Average

    Satellite Cost

    of the satellites

    in

  • SMALLSAT SYMPOSIUM, SILICON VALLEY 2020 © Euroconsult 2020

    4

    THE CURRENT COMMERCIAL EO REALITY

    CONSOLIDATED

    COMMERCIAL DATA

    MARKET

    FRAGMENTED

    SERVICES/

    INFORMATION MARKET

    COMBINED

    MAXAR & AIRBUS

    67%

    2018

    $1.5B

    OTHER

    COMMERCIAL DATA

    (~12 operators)

    33%

    2018

    $3.4B

    COMBINED MAXAR &

    AIRBUS 18%

    OTHER

    OPERATORS

    2%

    OTHER VAS

    COMPANIES

    (>1000 companies)

    (80%)

    Disaster Mgt. 1%

    TOTAL

    $1.5B

    Infrastructure

    10%

    Natural

    Resources 7%

    Energy 4%

    Environment 2%LBS

    7%

    Defense

    65%

    LBS

    5%

    TOTAL

    $3.4B

    Environment

    22%

    Natural Resources

    16%

    Energy 7%

    Maritime 1%

    Disaster Mgt. 4%

    Defense

    19%

    Infrastructure

    26%

    Finance 1%

    Maritime 4%

  • SMALLSAT SYMPOSIUM, SILICON VALLEY 2020 © Euroconsult 2020

    5

    SMALLSAT SUPPLY EXPANSION

    of which ~3,500

    in other constellations

    Of which 1,500 in Single satellite missions

    1,500 SATELLITES 8,500 SATELLITES # of

    of which ~3,500

    in 3 mega-constellations

    ALL SMALLSATS & OPERATORS

    Telecom 49%

    EARTH OBSERVATION

    19%

    Information 15%

    Technology 14%

    Security 1%

    Science 1%

    Exploration 1%

    2019-2028

    8,500

    SIMILAR OBJECTIVE FOR ALL EO OPERATORS: LOW-COST, HIGH

    FREQUENCY DATA COLLECTION TO SUPPORT CHANGE DETECTION ANALYTICS

    AND INFORMATION DELIVERY

    ~1,600 units

  • SMALLSAT SYMPOSIUM, SILICON VALLEY 2020 © Euroconsult 2020

    6

    NOT JUST MORE DATA – BUT DIFFERENT RESOURCES

    * For agile systems it refers to

  • SMALLSAT SYMPOSIUM, SILICON VALLEY 2020 © Euroconsult 2020

    7

    FREE DATA POLICY TO SUPPORT SERVICES DEVELOPMENT

    FREE DATA DAILY COLLECTION CAPACITY

    (OPTICAL, MILLION KM2)

    FREE DATA YEARLY CONSUMPTION -

    DOWNLOADS (PB est.)

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

    Sentinel-2b Sentinel-2a Landsat-8 Landsat-7

    Start of the free-

    data policy

    57% of the land mass covered daily

    for free since late 2017

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

    Landsat 1-8

    Sentinel 2a/b

    Source: Landsat estimate based on acquired/downloaded scenes and typical scene data size, Copernicus reporting

  • SMALLSAT SYMPOSIUM, SILICON VALLEY 2020 © Euroconsult 2020

    8

    CHANGING MARKET FOR EARTH OBSERVATION SOLUTIONS

    U.S. DoD (NGA, NRO)

    Civil institutions

    Other

    users

    Other DoDs

    SCHEMATIC EO VAS ANNUAL PROCUREMENT

    > $100M

    $10-100M

    $1-10M

    $100K-1M

    < $100K

    NUMBER OF USERS

    ~2

    ~10

    ~10

    ~100

    >100,000

    Top 10-20 non-U.S. DoDs

    B2G

    B2B

    TOWARDS EO MASS MARKETS

    Large industry

    users

    VAS UPSIDE MARKET 2028

    2028:

    $9.7BNDefense (27%)

    Energy (7%)

    Nat. res.

    (10%)

    Infras.

    (18%)

    Dis. management (7%) Env. mon.

    (7%)

    Maritime

    (4%)

    LBS

    (9%)

    Finance

    (11%)

    • Services emerging based on low-cost supply: more limited ARPU, but

    greater mass market

    • Services based on change detection analytics which businesses may

    subscribe: price points measured in the $K as opposed to $M

    Shifting EO from a mostly B2G business to more B2B.

  • SMALLSAT SYMPOSIUM, SILICON VALLEY 2020 © Euroconsult 2020

    9

    INCREASING SERVICES INTEGRATION

    ProductProduct

    Application

    LEVEL OF SERVICES INTEGRATION

    [SaaS]

    User can access

    software applications

    through a web-based

    interface to access

    information.

    Product

    Application

    Data

    Infrastructure

    Virtualisation

    [PaaS]

    Vendors provide data and

    sometimes API in an

    environment where

    developers can create

    new applications.

    Infrastructure

    Virtualisation

    Data

    [DaaS] Vendors give easy

    access to proprietary and

    3rd party data with

    analytics tools.

    Application

    Data

    Infrastructure

    Virtualisation

    [IaaS] Users outsource data

    storage, network and OS

    management, by buying

    resources rather than server,

    data center, calculator etc.

    Product

    Application

    Data

    Infrastructure

    Virtualisation

    Software as a ServiceData as a ServicePlatform as a Service Infrastructure

    As a Service

  • SMALLSAT SYMPOSIUM, SILICON VALLEY 2020 © Euroconsult 2020

    $85 million

    10

    INVESTMENT INTO NEW EARTH OBSERVATION OPERATORS

    The last highest fundraising events in the last

    year: Hyperspectral & SAR constellations

    $86 million

    $196 million

    $384 million

    $80 million

    $16.7 million

    $65 million

    $50 million

    $182 million

    Recently raised

    $168 million in

    Series D

    financing

    Recently raised

    $52 million from

    strategic partners

    Recently raised

    $10 million

    from Business

    Finland

    Raised $27

    million in Series

    B financing in

    2017

    Recently raised

    $150 million in

    Series C

    financing

    Recently raised

    $19 million in

    Series B

    financing

    Recently raised $5

    million in their last

    funding round out

    of six

    Recently raised

    a total of $85

    million over one

    round

    Raised $16.7

    million over 2

    rounds in 2017

    $24 million

    $100 million

  • SMALLSAT SYMPOSIUM, SILICON VALLEY 2020 © Euroconsult 2020

    11

    GEOGRAPHICAL DENSITY OF EO ANTENNAS TO INCREASE

    Density of antennas

    High

    Low

    11

    POTENTIAL GROWTH

    • Mid-latitudes to decrease latency

    • Interest for maritime applications

    • Close to South Pole with easy access

    POLES

    • Maximize number of passes

    • Strategic position for data relay in LEO satellites context

    LOW-COVERED REGION

    • Interest to monitor resources

    EO Ground Segment Market:

    • Currently estimated at ~$40M

    • Expected 5y CAGR ~7.5%

    New trends:

    • New frequencies: Ka-band/Optical link

    • New commercial sites to increase

    • New ground segment service providers

  • SMALLSAT SYMPOSIUM, SILICON VALLEY 2020 © Euroconsult 2020

    12

    TAKEAWAYS

    01 02 03

    0504 2020-2022 as

    game changing

    time period

    New service

    definition &

    monetization still

    early stage

    Growing

    government &

    free data supply

    Further

    ecosystem

    transformation

    ahead

    Still need

    success

    stories, exits?

  • France · USA · Canada · Japan · Singapore

    Շնորհակալություն

    Danke

    спасибо

    MerciДякую

    Thank you

    Muchas Gracias

    شكرا 谢谢

    ありがとうございました

    keith@euroconsult-ec.com