MARKET ANALYSIS OF ONTARIO S RENEWABLE ENERGY SECTOR FINAL_MOE Ontar… · The Ministry engaged...

FINAL Report

MARKET ANALYSIS OF ONTARIO’S

RENEWABLE ENERGY SECTOR

Presented to

Ministry of Energy c/o Sam Colalillo

Renewable Energy Facilitation Office

77 Grenville St., 5th Floor

Toronto, ON M7A 2C1

JUNE 30, 2017

Compass Renewable Energy Consulting Inc.

215 Spadina Ave, Suite 300

Toronto, ON M5T 2C7

http://compassenergyconsulting.ca

http://compassenergyconsulting.ca/

P r i v i l e g e d a n d C o n f i d e n t i a l P a g e 2 | 89

Table of Contents

1 Disclaimer ............................................................................................................................................ 4

2 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................... 5

3 Current Market Status ....................................................................................................................... 8

3.1 Green Energy and Green Economy Act & Green Energy Investment Agreement ........... 9

3.2 Current Manufacturing Activity ............................................................................................ 10

4 Key Trends and Implications .......................................................................................................... 12

4.1 Net Metering ............................................................................................................................. 13

4.2 Neighbouring Markets and Potential Export Activity ....................................................... 14

5 Solar .................................................................................................................................................... 21

5.1 Solar Supply Chain in Ontario ............................................................................................... 21

5.2 Economic Impacts from Solar Installations in Ontario ....................................................... 23

5.3 Economic Impacts from Potential Solar Export Activity .................................................... 28

6 Wind ................................................................................................................................................... 31

6.1 Wind Supply Chain in Ontario .............................................................................................. 31

6.2 Economic Impacts from Wind Installations in Ontario ...................................................... 33

6.3 Economic Impacts from Potential Wind Export Activity ................................................... 37

7 Hydroelectricity ................................................................................................................................ 40

7.1 Hydroelectric Supply Chain in Ontario ................................................................................ 40

7.2 Economic Impacts from Hydroelectric Installations in Ontario ........................................ 41

7.3 Economic Impacts from Potential Hydroelectric Export Activity .................................... 47

8 Biogas ................................................................................................................................................. 49

8.1 Biogas Supply Chain in Ontario ............................................................................................ 49

8.2 Economic Impacts from Biogas Installations in Ontario .................................................... 50

9 Biomass .............................................................................................................................................. 55

9.1 Biomass Supply Chain in Ontario ......................................................................................... 55

9.2 Economic Impacts from Biomass Installations in Ontario ................................................. 56

10 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 61

11 Appendix A – Glossary ................................................................................................................... 64

12 Appendix B – Scope and Objectives .............................................................................................. 65

13 Appendix C – Detailed Approach ................................................................................................. 66

13.1 Sector Engagement ................................................................................................................... 66

13.2 Overview of JEDI Model ......................................................................................................... 67

13.3 Methodological & Simplifying Assumptions....................................................................... 69

13.4 Exclusions .................................................................................................................................. 70

14 Appendix D – Data Tables .............................................................................................................. 71

14.1 All Renewable technologies .................................................................................................... 71

14.2 Solar ........................................................................................................................................... 73

14.3 Wind ........................................................................................................................................... 74

14.4 Hydroelectricity ........................................................................................................................ 75

14.5 Biogas ......................................................................................................................................... 76


14.6 Biomass ...................................................................................................................................... 77

15 Appendix E – Representative Supply Chains in Ontario ........................................................... 78

15.1 Solar ........................................................................................................................................... 78

15.2 Wind ........................................................................................................................................... 79

15.3 Hydroelectricity ........................................................................................................................ 82

15.4 Biogas ......................................................................................................................................... 83

15.5 Biomass ...................................................................................................................................... 84

16 Appendix F – JEDI Industry Multipliers ....................................................................................... 85

16.1 Solar ........................................................................................................................................... 85

16.2 Wind ........................................................................................................................................... 86

16.3 Hydro ......................................................................................................................................... 87

16.4 Biomass ...................................................................................................................................... 88

16.5 Biogas ......................................................................................................................................... 89


1 Disclaimer

This report was prepared by Compass Renewable Energy Consulting Inc. (“Compass”)

exclusively for the benefit and use of the Ministry of Energy (“Ministry”). The work presented

in this report represents our best efforts and judgments based on the information available at

the time this report was prepared. Compass is not responsible for the reader’s use of, or reliance

upon, the report, nor any decisions based on the report. Compass makes no representations or

warranties, expressed or implied. Readers of the report are advised that they assume all

liabilities incurred by them, or third parties, as a result of their reliance on the report, or the

data, information, findings and opinions contained in the report.


2 Executive Summary

Ontario is a North American leader in the level and nature of support that it has provided to its

renewable energy sector. As a result of several targeted procurements, it has supplemented its

historic base of hydroelectric power and now boasts both the highest level of solar PV and wind

power penetration compared to any other province or territory in Canada. Its Domestic Content

policy, while temporary, created manufacturing jobs across the wind and solar supply chains.

However, beyond the remaining original Feed-in Tariff (FIT) contracts, the last Green Energy

Investment Agreement (GEIA) projects, FIT 4, FIT 5, microFIT 2017 and the Large Renewable

Procurement (LRP) I, the future level of support in Ontario is less certain and as a result its

renewable energy sector has and continues to evolve.

The Ministry engaged Compass to provide a comprehensive market assessment of Ontario’s

renewable energy sector, defined as project developers, manufacturers, engineering consultants

and related service providers (e.g., installers, maintenance workers) whose primary economic

activity is in the delivery of goods and services related to wind and solar photovoltaic (PV)

power, bio-energy, and hydroelectricity. The market assessment provides a market status

update and a five-year outlook of the sector’s performance from a qualitative and quantitative

perspective. More details on the scope and objectives are available in Appendix B – Scope and

Objectives.

The qualitative research involved both electronic and telephone surveys and interviews across

the four technology specific supply chains. In total, input was received from over 60

participants including, 31 telephone based interviews and 26 electronic based survey

responses.1 The quantitative analysis evaluated economic impacts that occur throughout the

various renewably energy supply chains present in Ontario. Compass leveraged the National

Renewable Energy Laboratories (NREL) Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model

to assess the economic impacts from manufacturing, development, construction, permitting,

consulting, and operations and maintenance. Economic impacts were calculated for both

Ontario based projects as well as potential export activity. More details on the approach are

available in Appendix C – Detailed Approach.

Local market forces as well as external trends are having both positive and negative impacts on

Ontario’s renewable energy sector.

Key findings from this market assessment include:

• The reduction in centralized procurements will have the biggest impact on the sector

in the near term. From 2010 to 2016 Ontario added over 7,400 MW of contracted

1 Electronic survey responses were counted if a respondent provided more than their contact information.


generation or more than 1,000 MW/year on average, compared with the next five years,

where Ontario is forecast to add approximately 2,050 MW, which is an average of just

over 400 MW/year. This reduction in build-out has a direct impact on economic activity

throughout the sector.

• The transition to net metering creates revenue and counterparty risks that will reduce

installations in the near term. Another important factor impacting the sector is the

transition from centralized procurements for distributed generation resources via the

FIT and microFIT programs to a more decentralized development of these resources

through Ontario’s net metering regulation. In the near term, solar is anticipated to gain

modest adoption under the recent changes to the net metering regulation, however at a

fraction of the market size under FIT and microFIT. Hydro, bio-energy and wind power

are not likely to be candidates for net metering projects due to the locational constraints

associated with these technologies, nor are hydro or bio-energy likely to be economic

under the recent changes.

• In the longer term, the evolution of Ontario’s net metering regulation coupled with

falling technology costs are anticipated to support the development of distributed

generation. Allowing third party ownership in conjunction with single or multi-entity

virtual net metering should drive activity for larger projects. In the medium to long

term, developers and installers anticipate the distributed generation market to grow

beyond the current market size on an annual basis compared to what was procured

under FIT and microFIT, due primarily to the falling capital costs of solar PV.

• Ontario’s focus on reducing Green House Gas (GHG) emissions will support the

development of renewable energy in the medium to long term. The introduction of

Ontario’s Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) and the electrification of transportation

and other fossil fueled energy use represents both GHG reduction and renewable energy

growth opportunities. The IESO’s Ontario Power Outlook (OPO) presents two scenarios

where the demand for energy increases to 177 and 197 TWh annually by 2035.2 These

higher demand scenarios represent a 29 to 49 TWh per year increase over the base case

demand scenario. As discussed in the OPO, this increase will require investment in

additional non-emitting sources of generation.

• Over the five-year forecast period, legacy assets as well as Ontario-based renewable

capacity additions are anticipated to create 56,500 FTEs, generate $3 billion in

employment earnings, and contribute $5.4 billion to Ontario’s GDP. Both solar and

2 Independent Electricity System Operator, Ontario Planning Outlook, accessed on line June, 25, 2017:

http://www.ieso.ca/sector-participants/planning-and-forecasting/ontario-planning-outlook

http://www.ieso.ca/sector-participants/planning-and-forecasting/ontario-planning-outlook


wind display higher employment intensity in 2017 and 2018, due to large projects with

Domestic Content requirements achieving commercial operation in those years. Overall,

solar represents the highest proportion of the employment impacts over the forecast

period due to its relatively higher employment intensity on a per MW basis. Despite a

modest amount of forecast installations, hydroelectricity represents the second highest

proportion of employment impacts and the highest contributions to GDP over the

forecast period. This is due to the higher capital cost on a per MW basis, higher local

spending percentages and the large number of operating legacy assets.

• Growing demand for renewable energy development outside Ontario is creating

export opportunities for Ontario based businesses. Outside of Ontario, there is

growing demand for renewable energy, as demonstrated by current procurements in

Alberta and Saskatchewan, as well as strong targets for additional renewables

throughout the U.S. Ontario’s renewable energy sector, it’s manufacturing base, are

already serving these markets and are positioned to take advantage of their growth.

• Over the five-year forecast period, export activity has the potential to generate an

additional 10,700 FTEs, contribute $740 million toward employment earnings, and $1

billion to Ontario’s GDP. Manufacturers in the renewable energy supply chain in

Ontario that were operating before the introduction of the Green Energy and Green

Economy Act, 2009 (“GEA”) have historic roots and bankable supply chains. Exporting

products has been a normal course of business for them and is expected to continue. For

example, on average, Ontario based hydroelectric component manufacturers export

approximately 70% of their production capacity. Proximity to the U.S. impacts

transportation and logistical costs, which is an advantage for large wind turbine

component manufacturers (i.e. towers and blades). The largest potential impact from

export activity comes from the solar sector, estimated at 8,300 FTEs and $785 million to

GDP over the five-year period, from exporting module, inverter and racking

components.

Ontario’s renewable energy sector is going through a period of transition. Despite the near-term

contraction due to a reduction in procurement activity, Ontario-based sector activity will make

important contributions towards jobs, earnings and GDP from 2017 to 2021. Further, Ontario’s

renewable energy component manufacturing base is anticipated to take advantage of export

markets, which will contribute additional jobs and GDP to the Ontario economy. In the short

term, the sector will continue to need the government’s support to bridge the gap in the

transition from FIT and microFIT to net metering. In the medium to long term, the transition to

the net metering, as well as a low carbon energy system throughout Ontario and North

America, will support the sector’s growth.


3 Current Market Status

Ontario is a Canadian leader in the amount of support it has provided to its renewable energy

sector. As of the end of June 2017, Ontario had over 16,400 MW of renewable energy generating

capacity installed as shown in Figure 1 below. Hydro has the largest share of renewable energy

capacity followed by wind and solar PV, with biomass and biogas representing a smaller

overall proportion of the current installed capacity.

Figure 1 - Ontario Installed Renewable Energy Capacity as of March/June 2017 (MW)3

Source: IESO data and Compass analysis

Hydroelectricity has historically been an important part of Ontario’s supply mix, however

support for non-hydro renewables began with the first Renewable Energy Supply (RES)

procurement which dates to 2004. This was followed by RES II in 2005, RES III and the

Renewable Energy Standard Offer Program (RESOP) in 2007, and the Atitokokan and Thunder

Bay coal to biomass conversions, Combined Heat and Power (CHP) III, Hydro Electricity

Supply Agreement (HESA), FIT, microFIT, Green Energy Investment Agreement (GEIA) and

the Large Renewable Procurement (LRP) from 2009 to 2016. As of the end of 2016, the

Independent Electricity System Operator reports that it has 11,667 MW of renewables under

contract, 9,716 MW of which has achieved commercial operation. From 2010 to 2016 Ontario

3 The data used to develop this graph is a combination of March and June 2017 IESO data, available here:

http://www.ieso.ca/learn/ontario-supply-mix/ontario-energy-capacity

4,782

8,689

2,340

525 78

Wind Hydro Solar Biomass Biogas

http://www.ieso.ca/learn/ontario-supply-mix/ontario-energy-capacity


saw approximately 7,400 MW in capacity additions from IESO lead procurements, see Figure 2.

This figure excludes the Hydroelectric Contract Initiative (HCI) projects which were procured

by the IESO in 2010 but were already operating.

Figure 2 – Annual Renewable Energy Capacity Additions, 2010 – 2016

Capacity additions from 2010 to 2016 represent an average of more than 1,000 MW of new

installations per year, which is more than double the planned average annual installations of

400 MW per year from 2017 to 2021.

In addition to these renewable resources, Ontario procured additional non-renewables

including conservation, natural gas and nuclear power at the same time as manufacturing

activity in the province was declining.

The combination of the new supply, conservation and lower demand resulted in Ontario being

in an oversupply condition. Not surprisingly, this oversupply condition has influenced the

slowing pace of renewable energy procurements in Ontario, and a result, manufacturing

activity in Ontario’s renewable energy sector has also slowed.

3.1 Green Energy and Green Economy Act & Green Energy Investment Agreement

The GEA was introduced in 2009 at a time when Ontario’s economy was suffering the impacts

of the 2008 global financial crisis. Ontario was losing jobs within its traditional auto sector

manufacturing base and the GEA had multiple objectives including increasing the role of

renewable energy within Ontario’s supply mix, while also creating jobs associated with the

development and manufacturing of the equipment to be used in solar and wind projects.

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

Solar Wind Hydro Bio

400 MW / year 1,000 MW / year


The GEA also required Domestic Content to be included in the implementation of the FIT

program. The Domestic Content obligation applied to wind and solar projects only and was

introduced at a time when Ontario had almost no existing wind and solar manufacturing

capacity. A variety of manufacturers entered the market to serve the solar sector while the wind

sector’s component supply chain’s response was generally more muted, with fewer

announcements of new manufacturing plants.

The Green Energy Investment Agreement (GEIA) involved the government of Ontario

negotiating power purchase agreements with a Korean Consortium (“KC”) led by Samsung, in

exchange for Samsung guaranteeing its supply chain would establish manufacturing facilities in

Ontario. The GEIA helped FIT and the KC contract holders to meet their contractual Domestic

Content obligations. The majority of renewable energy projects that achieved commercial

operation between 2012 and 2016 would have been subject to these Domestic Content

requirements and resulted in higher economic impacts associated with construction and

manufacturing than if the Domestic Content requirements were not in affect.

Ontario’s Domestic Content policy was formally challenged at the World Trade Organization

by Japan and the European Union. After an appeal, Ontario agreed to update its policy by

eliminating Domestic Content obligations for any procurements post FIT 2.

3.2 Current Manufacturing Activity

Manufacturers of solar and wind components were incentivized to come to Ontario through the

GEA, however, there has been a decrease in the number of the solar and wind manufacturing

supply chains that are active in Ontario today. Some manufacturers have either moved their

manufacturing equipment to other markets or did not invest a significant amount in an Ontario

facility and have simply stopped production here. The manufacturers that remain are actively

seeking export opportunities with mixed success.

From a peak of eleven solar module manufacturers operating in Ontario, currently three major

manufacturers remain in operation, and a number of smaller manufacturers also continue to

produce solar modules. Module manufacturers are finding some success with exports, however

this is not a consistent trend across all module manufacturers. However, solar racking

manufacturers are finding success at exporting their products to the U.S. due to the expertise

they have developed in serving the Ontario market. Historically they have served other

markets, like construction and automotive, with solar helping to diversify their product mix.

From as many as seven major wind component manufacturers, two continue to operate in

Ontario. Those that remain produce components (i.e. blades and towers) that form part of their

organization’s global supply chain. Additionally, wind towers and blades are large components

and have transportation challenges, therefore Ontario based manufacturers should have a cost

advantage in neighbouring export markets.


Hydroelectric component manufacturers have been active before the introduction of the GEA

and have historic roots and bankable supply chains in Ontario. These manufacturers remain

active and have offset the contraction of Ontario’s renewable energy sector by exporting.

Major components for the bio-energy sector are generally imported with some minor

components manufactured in Ontario.


4 Key Trends and Implications

The business environment surrounding the renewable energy sector in Ontario is evolving. The

base case forecast for electricity demand, scenario B in the OPO, is relatively flat and the

number of procurements for renewable generated electricity are decreasing with the wind-

down of the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) and microFIT program, as well as the suspension of the second

Large Renewable Procurement (LRP II). Simultaneously, the Government of Ontario has

released its Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) that will be focused on reducing emissions

throughout the Ontario economy, which includes the cap and trade program that held its

second auction in June 2017.4 Outside of Ontario, provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan and

U.S. states like New York, Ohio, New Jersey, and Massachusetts are increasing the role of

renewable energy within their supply mix and economies.

These and other local market forces as well as external trends are having both positive and

negative impacts on Ontario’s renewable energy sector. Table 1 displays several examples of

key context and/or trends, as well as the implication and impact in Ontario.

Table 1 - Summary of Key Trends and Implications

Context / Trend Implications Impact

Reduction in local

procurements

Reduces economic activity and investment

throughout all parts of the supply chain(s).

-ve

Falling costs of solar and

wind

Improves economics of these technologies in

a wider geography and scenarios

+ve

Evolution from contracts to

net metering

Increases revenue uncertainty and

disadvantages geographically constrained

technologies.

-ve (near term)

+ve (long term)

Introduction of Fair Hydro

Plan

Further reduces the economics of net

metering in the near term for some customers

-ve

Increased focus on

reducing emissions

Potential funding through CCAP and longer

term electrification represents growth

potential

+ve

Export markets continue to

grow

Ontario based companies have experience

and growing markets to serve in Canada and

U.S.

+ve

In the near term, the transition from FIT and microFIT to net metering as well as export market

4 Government of Ontario, Ontario Announces Results of June Cap and Trade Program Auction, accessed on

line, June 25, 2017: https://news.ontario.ca/ene/en/2017/06/ontario-announces-results-of-june-cap-and-

trade-program-auction.html

https://news.ontario.ca/ene/en/2017/06/ontario-announces-results-of-june-cap-and-trade-program-auction.html

https://news.ontario.ca/ene/en/2017/06/ontario-announces-results-of-june-cap-and-trade-program-auction.html


growth have the greatest potential to offset the impacts from reduced centralized procurements.

4.1 Net Metering

4.1.1 Recent and Potential Net Metering Regulation Updates

Over the forecast period, the Ontario renewable energy sector will be transitioning from

centralized procurement mechanisms to a largely distributed arrangement for new generation.

Net metering is soon to be the primary mechanism by which distributed renewable energy

generation will be developed. Net-metering is a billing arrangement which allows customers to

generate renewable energy onsite for their own use, and to receive bill credits, that can be

carried forward for any surplus electricity they send to the grid. In February 2017, Ontario

posted an amended Net Metering Regulation (O.Reg. 541/05) to e-Laws.

The first phase of updates to the regulation, the “recent changes” include:

• Clarifying the description of the method used to calculate bill credits;

• Clarifying the carryover period for bill credits at a consecutive 12 month period;

• Removing the 500 kilowatt (kW) project capacity size limit to allow for any sized

renewable energy generation system, subject to the system being used primarily for the

generator’s own use;

• Allowing for the use of energy storage and its recognition for the purposes of net

metering; and

• Allowing participants with existing net metering agreements to choose to opt into the

updated terms, or to maintain their existing agreements.

These changes were implemented July 1, 2017, the in-force date.

The Ministry is also examining potential additional program updates, the “potential changes,”

related to third-party ownership of net metering facilities and allowing virtual net metering in

Ontario.

Third-Party Ownership (TPO) could involve a company (third-party) owning and operating a

renewable energy system at a customer site and selling electricity to the customer under a

power purchase agreement or similar arrangement. The customer, participating under a net

metering arrangement with their LDC, would receive bill credits for electricity delivered to the

grid from the renewable generation system similar to conventional net metering arrangements.

Virtual Net Metering (VNM) could involve the distribution of net metering credits either (a)

across multiple accounts held by an individual or corporation (Single Entity Virtual Net

Metering), or (b) across multiple accounts held by multiple individuals or corporations

associated with a shared generation facility (Multiple Entity Virtual Net Metering). It could

involve utility-owned or third-party business models. While TPO and VNM have been used in

conjunction with solar PV development in the U.S., they would also allow for non-solar


distributed generation to be more easily developed.

In the longer term, the transition to net metering is anticipated to have a positive impact on the

development of distributed generation in Ontario, but there are several challenges to overcome.

The transition to net metering creates revenue risk and third-party ownership would create

counterparty risk. Revenue risk is created because net metering generators are offsetting

energy, measured in kWhs, and the value of those kWhs changes as cost of electricity evolves

over time, unlike the rate certainty that a long-term contract, like a FIT or microFIT, provides.

Third-party ownership, similar to leasing or financing arrangements currently eligible for net

metering, creates counterparty risk as the owner of the net metering generation asset is selling

the power to the consumer of the power, or load customer. The creditworthiness of load

customers will vary and this will impact the ability for solar energy providers to secure

financing to provide TPO, leasing, or financing options to potential net metering customers.

This will impact the cost of solar and uptake of net metering.

Despite these challenges, under the recent changes to net metering, solar is anticipated to

display modest adoption initially, although at a fraction of the market size under FIT and

microFIT. Hydro, wind and bio-energy are not likely to be candidates for net metering projects

due to the locational constraints associated with these technologies, nor are they likely to be

economic under the recent changes. The recent changes to Ontario’s net metering regulation

continue to require generation to be electrically connected behind the load customer’s meter,

and therefore located in the same place as the load customer. However, hydro, wind and to a

lesser extent bio-energy projects should be located where there is a strong available resource,

which may or may not be at the same location as the load customer.

Allowing third party ownership in conjunction with single or multi-entity virtual net metering

should drive greater activity for larger solar projects as well as enable other technologies to

participate, which could help offset the reduction in renewable energy sector activity.

4.2 Neighbouring Markets and Potential Export Activity

An important trend supporting Ontario’s renewable energy sector is the growing demand for

new renewable energy in neighboring markets in Canada, the U.S. as well as farther afield

around the globe. This trend is being supported by technology and cost improvements for wind

and solar power, as well as a renewed focus on reducing Green House Gas (GHG) emissions as

global leaders reaffirm their COP 21 commitments.5 In total, one hundred and ninety-five

countries have agreed to tackle climate change with a majority also committing to scale up

renewables.6 Many provinces and most states within Canada and the U.S. have set renewable

5 The one exception is the U.S.; however, many U.S. state and municipal governments continue to support

the COP 21 targets and objectives. 6 REN21, “//2016 Renewables 2016 Global Status Report” http://www.ren21.net/wp-

content/uploads/2016/10/REN21_GSR2016_FullReport_en_11.pdf, access March 11, 2016

http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/REN21_GSR2016_FullReport_en_11.pdf

http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/REN21_GSR2016_FullReport_en_11.pdf


electricity targets and will continue to procure new renewable energy capacity over the next 15

years. Table 2 presents a sample of renewable electricity targets and associated procurements in

Canada and the U.S.

Table 2 - North American Renewable Procurement Targets

North American Provinces

and States

Renewable Energy

Target (%)

New MWs Target Year

Alberta 30% 5,000 2030

Saskatchewan 50% 2,400 2030

New Brunswick 40% - 2020

Nova Scotia 40% - 2020

Connecticut 27% - 2020

Delaware 25% - 2025-2026

Illinois 25% - 2025-2026

Indiana 10% - 2025

Iowa - 105 -

Maine 40% 8,000 2017

Maryland 25% - 2020

Massachusetts 25% 1660 2025

Michigan 15% - 2021

Minnesota 25% - 2020

Missouri 15% - 2021

New Hampshire 25% - 2025

New Jersey 20% - 2020-2021

New York 50% 16,000 2030

North Carolina 12.5% - 2021

Ohio 12.5% - 2026

Pennsylvania 18% - 2020-2021

Rhode Island 38.5% - 2035

South Carolina 2% - 2021

Vermont 75% - 2032

Virginia 15% - 2025

Of note are Alberta’s and Saskatchewan’s commitments to increase the role of renewable energy

in their electricity supply mix. Alberta has committed to 30% of all electricity come from

renewable sources by 2030 and procuring 5,000 MW of renewable energy through successive

rounds of its Renewable Electricity Program (REP), the first 400 MW procurement is already

under way. Further, there is an ongoing Alberta Infrastructure solar specific procurement

targeting government facilities for approximately 100 MW.

Saskatchewan has made a commitment to have 50% of their electricity generating capacity come


from renewable energy sources by 2030. This would include adding almost 1,900 MW of wind

and over 60 MW of solar. SaskPower, the vertically integrated crown corporation, has ongoing

procurements in market for 200 MW of wind power and 10 MW of solar power.

In the U.S., the solar PV market is forecast to average above 12,000 MW per year over the 2017

to 2021 period, as shown in Figure 3. With the utility scale segment representing the majority of

the forecast installations.

Figure 3 – U.S. PV Installation Forecast

Source: Green Tech Media Research / Solar Energy Industry Association

The wind market in the U.S. has also grown substantially in the U.S. with almost 8,600 MW

installed in 2015, see

Figure 4.

Figure 4 – U.S. wind market growth


Source: NREL

These neighbouring markets with renewable targets serve as opportunities for Ontario’s

renewable industry to export components and services such as development, engineering

design, and operations and maintenance expertise.

4.2.1 Why are Ontario’s Exporter’s Successful?

Ontario’s renewable energy sector currently exports both products manufactured in Ontario as

well as services provided by Ontario based employees. Manufacturers in each of the solar, wind

and hydro supply chains have either historically exported part of their production or anticipate

doing so soon, as the amount of procurement and policy supporting Ontario-made products

has softened. Manufactured components that have historically or are anticipated to be exported

from Ontario include:

• Solar: modules, inverters and racking

• Wind: blades, towers

• Hydro: generator coils and turbines

Growth and proximity to the U.S. are reported by all technology component manufacturers as

an advantage, however, each technology supply chain distinguishes itself in other ways that

help to explain their success.

Hydro component manufacturers, who have been present in Ontario before the introduction of

the GEA, report the proximity to the U.S. as well as the quality of their historic Ontario supply

chain as being differentiators supporting their export activity. Based on survey results, over

70% of the production from hydro component manufacturers will serve export markets.

Solar component manufacturers reported increasing export activity to the U.S. as the Ontario

market has contracted. Solar module manufacturers describe the proximity to the U.S. increases

their ability to sell into this market. Despite aggressive price competition from offshore

manufacturers, some Ontario module manufacturers report that purchase decisions related to

modules are based on a combination of factors including factory gate pricing, quality of

product, shipping and logistics costs as well as payment terms. These manufacturers are

competing based on a combination of these factors, such as reduced shipping and logistical

costs. Most Ontario module manufacturers are within a one hour drive of the U.S. border and

can provide just-in time delivery of modules to distributed roof top portfolios, reducing cost

and complexity for their U.S. clients.

Solar racking component manufacturers reported success in exporting to the U.S. The racking

component manufacturers operating in Ontario today are primarily the result of the GEA.

These manufacturers leveraged Ontario’s pre-existing steel component manufacturing capacity,

such as roll forming, stamping and extruding, to produce their products in Ontario. Due to the


strong supplier relationships formed over the production of the components used in Ontario,

these same supply chains are now serving U.S.-based projects.

In general, Ontario wind component manufacturers have exported relatively less than

manufacturers in other sectors, due to strong market demand in Ontario. Although they have

less experience exporting, the remaining manufacturers are expected to be able to export to

nearby U.S. markets due to the fact they are producing large components, such as blades and

towers, which can have high shipping and logistical costs over long distances, see Figure 5

below.

Figure 5 – Example of Wind Turbine Blade Transportation Challenges

A 2013 study by NREL compared the costs associated with shipping turbine blades from local

and foreign manufacturers, and found that for projects located near to manufacturing plants,

the delivered cost of local manufacturers was similar or lower than overseas manufacturers.7 As

wind turbines continue to increase in size the challenges and costs associated with shipping

blades and tower components are likely to grow, therefore proximity will continue to be an

important factor in determining turbine selection.

Moreover, the remaining wind component manufacturers, Siemens and CS Wind, form part of

global supply chains within their respective organizations, so it is the Ontario manufacturing

locations that are intended to serve broader markets throughout Canada and the U.S. Figure 6

below shows the location of the Ontario wind component manufacturers and the markets that

are within a 1,000 km shipping distance. As shown, there are a variety of markets that have high

7 National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Supply Chain and Blade Manufacturing Considerations in the Global

Wind Industry, accessed June 20, 2017 on line: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/60063.pdf

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/60063.pdf


Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) targets that fall within this distance, demonstrating the

potential within close proximity.

Figure 6 – Wind Turbine Manufacturer’s Proximity to Export Markets

Canadian wind component manufacturers have been able to serve the U.S. market in the past.

In 2015, the U.S. was reliant on wind turbine component imports and approximately $90 million

USD of the value of the imports came from Canadian made wind towers, see Figure 7. 8

Figure 7 – U.S. Wind Component Imports: Countries of Origin and U.S. Districts of Entry

8 U.S. Department of Energy, 2015 Wind Technologies Market Report, accessed on line June 20, 2017,

https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/08/f33/2015-Wind-Technologies-Market-Report-08162016.pdf

https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/08/f33/2015-Wind-Technologies-Market-Report-08162016.pdf


Source: U.S. Department of Energy

The combination of proximity and historic ability to serve exports markets suggests that

Ontario manufacturers should be able to export over the forecast period.

4.2.2 Export Forecast

Appendix C – Detailed Approach provides a more detailed description of how export activity

was estimated. For the purposes of the quantitative analysis, exports associated with services

have been ignored. Further, for component exports, the forecasts are based on those

manufacturers that Compass could engage with either through the web or telephone surveys

and is likely only a subset of actual overall activity.

The forecast of export activity and its associated economic impacts are subject to greater

uncertainty compared to forecast installations in Ontario that are already committed or under

contract, so throughout the report these impacts have been broken out separately from Ontario-

based impacts.

Figure 8 presents the forecast of export activity by technology. Export activity is estimated

based on historical exports and anticipated future production capacity, as well as assumed

production utilization. For each technology, export activity is the sum of the total MW of

exports for each component, for example solar exports include modules, racking and inverters.

Figure 8 – Forecast Export Activity by Technology (MW)

The summation of each component’s potential exports is used in the quantification of economic

impacts from potential export activity in each of the technology specific sections that follow.

0

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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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Wind Hydro Solar


5 Solar This section focuses on the solar industry in Ontario, its supply chain, forecast installations, and

economic performance indicators over the next five years

5.1 Solar Supply Chain in Ontario

A solar PV system is either a rooftop or ground mounted system and generally falls into 3 size

categories: residential (≤10kW), commercial (>10kW-1MW), and utility (+5 MW). Generally, a

solar PV system is made up of modules, inverters, transformers, racking, and electrical

connections and related equipment. Elements of the solar supply chain are shown in Figure 9.

Figure 9 – Images of Solar Supply Chain

In 2012, Ontario had eleven module manufacturers, a silicon manufacturer, several inverter

manufacturers and a variety of racking manufacturers operating.9 An important distinction

between the module, inverter and racking manufacturers was the requirements embedded in

the Domestic Content obligations that resulted in different levels of investment on behalf of

manufacturers to establish a facility that was compliant with the obligations. For example, the

module manufacturers had to electrically connect and laminate cells in Ontario, which required

the electrical connections to be made, manually or robotically, and the laminants to be

9 Natural Resources Canada, National Survey Report of PV Power Applications in Canada, 2012, accessed on

line, June 6, 2016:

http://www.cansia.ca/uploads/7/2/5/1/72513707/national_survey_report_of_pv_power_2012.pdf

http://www.cansia.ca/uploads/7/2/5/1/72513707/national_survey_report_of_pv_power_2012.pdf


laminated in Ontario. The combination of electrically connecting cells and laminating meant

that the modules would be fully assembled in Ontario also requiring all of the manufacturing

equipment used in module lamination to be brought to Ontario.

Inverters on other hand required final assembly and testing to occur in Ontario to comply with

the Domestic Content obligations, but allowed for certain components to be pre-assembled.

Therefore, the largest investment on behalf of inverter manufacturers was the test equipment

and by comparison to module manufacturers, inverter manufacturers overall level of

investment was lower.

Racking manufacturer’s obligations were developed to ensure that all structural components

were formed in Ontario. However, Ontario has a large existing base of steel component

manufacturers such as roll forming and extruders to draw from, therefore racking

manufacturers generally invested little in new facilities or equipment. They did, however, have

to bring their expertise as well as develop relationships with the existing steel component

manufacturing supply chain. Figure 10 displays the level of representation throughout the solar

supply chain in Ontario.

Figure 10 – Illustrative Solar Supply Chain Activity in Ontario

Despite the success in the Domestic Content policy in attracting manufacturers, the market size

was never large enough to support the overall supply capability. For example, the total annual

production capacity for module manufacturers was as high as 1,066 MW10 yet the cumulative

installed capacity over the last seven years was less than 3,000 MWDC. Not surprisingly, there

was a material reduction in module manufacturers and none of the largest inverter

manufacturers present during the peak years for FIT projects are assembling inverters in

10 Natural Resources Canada, National Survey Report of PV Power Applications in Canada, 2014, accessed on

line, June 6, 2016:

http://www.cansia.ca/uploads/7/2/5/1/72513707/national_survey_report_of_pv_power_applications_in_ca

nada_2014.pdf

Development

•Well respresented

•Potentia

•Grasshopper

•Northland Power

ProfessionalServices

•Well represented

•Hatch

•Osler

•Stantec

ComponentManufacturing

•Somewhat represented

•Modules: Silfab, Heliene

•Inverters: Sparq

•Racking: Solar Flexrack, KB Racking

Construction

•Well represented

•Bondfield

•H.B. White

•RES

•GP Joule

•Endura Energy

Operationsand

Maintenance

•Well represented

•Northwind

•EDF-EN

http://www.cansia.ca/uploads/7/2/5/1/72513707/national_survey_report_of_pv_power_applications_in_canada_2014.pdf

http://www.cansia.ca/uploads/7/2/5/1/72513707/national_survey_report_of_pv_power_applications_in_canada_2014.pdf


Ontario today. Racking manufacturers continue to operate and export their products from

Ontario. Based on discussions with manufacturers, this is due to larger market size in the U.S.,

the well-established Ontario supply chain and in some instances the favourable USD/CAD

exchange rate.

From a non-manufacturing perspective, the solar supply chain continues to be well represented

both from a developer, professional services and construction perspective. However, due to the

reduction of activity in Ontario from new and contracted generation, see Figure 11, these parts

of the supply chain are also supporting projects outside Ontario.

A representative list of active Ontario companies in each section of the supply chain are

attached in Appendix E – Representative Supply Chains in Ontario.

5.2 Economic Impacts from Solar Installations in Ontario

5.2.1 Forecasted Solar Installations in Ontario

Based on current contracts and commitments, forecast attrition, and forecast net metering

adoption, there are almost 948 MWAC, or 1140 MWDC11, of solar capacity anticipated to be

installed over the forecast period, see Figure 11. These installations include projects contracted

under the GEIA that will achieve commercial operation in 2017, as well as under FIT, microFIT,

LRP and net metering.

Figure 11 – Forecasted Solar Annual Capacity Additions 2017 - 2021 (MWDC)

11 MWAC were converted to MWDC using prevailing or contract related DC/AC ratios.

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LRP I GEIA FIT 3 - Roof FIT 3 - Ground

FIT 4 - Roof FIT 4 - Ground FIT 5 - Roof FIT 5 - Ground

microFIT 2016 microFIT 2017 Net Metering - Res Net Metering - Com


5.2.2 Total and Local Capital Expenditure

Table 3 and Figure 12 display the MW installed in each year, along with the total and local capital

expenditures, on a per MW basis, and the local content percentage, which is the weighted average

spending in Ontario as a percentage of the total capital expenditures. In the next five years, just

over $2.1 billion will be spent on solar project capital costs, 63% of which will be locally spent in

Ontario.

Table 3 - Total and Local Capital Expenditures from Solar

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total/Avg.

MW Installed MW 272 358 337 123 51 1,140

Total Cap Ex / MW $ 2017 Million/MW 2.03 1.92 1.82 1.91 1.70 1.91

Local Cap Ex / MW $ 2017 Million/MW 1.50 1.13 1.09 1.15 0.93 1.20

Local Content Percentage % 74% 59% 60% 60% 55% 63%

Of note is the local content percentage which drops from a high in 2017 to a steadier state of

around 60%, post-Domestic Content obligations.

Figure 12 - Total and Local Capital Expenditure from Solar Power ($ 2017 Millions)

5.2.3 Summary of Solar Economic Performance Indicators

Based on forecast installations and total and local capital expenditures, Ontario specific jobs,

earnings and GDP were calculated. As shown in

Table 4, the solar sector will contribute almost 24,000 FTE’s, approximately $675 million in wages,

and over $1 billion in GDP over the forecast period.

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Total Cap Expenditures Local Cap Expenditures Installation Forecast


Table 4 – Overview of Solar Related Economic Impacts

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

Jobs Total FTEs/year 7,539 6,192 5,404 2,751 1,982 23,868

Earnings Total $ 2017 Millions 361.33 113.73 60.42 62.37 76.01 673.86

GDP Total $ 2017 Millions 499.18 179.87 109.13 112.03 131.40 1031.61

An additional breakdown of the economic impacts is available in Appendix D – Data Tables.

The following sections describe each performance indicator in greater detail as they relate to

new build activity and operations and maintenance (O&M) activity.

5.2.3.1 Jobs

Figure 13 displays the total annual jobs from Ontario installation decreasing over the 5 years.

What at first seems contradictory is that annual jobs decline in 2018 and 2019, even though annual

installations increase. However, this higher job intensity can be explained by the Domestic

Content obligations associated with the 2017 installations.

Figure 13 - Annual Employment Impacts from Solar Power (FTEs)

5.2.3.2 Earnings

Figure 14 displays total earnings over the five years from 2017 to 2021, which follow the same

trend as jobs for the same reason, the installations that occur in 2017 are more employment

intensive due to the Domestic Content requirements.

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New Build O&M Legacy O&M New Build Installations


Figure 14 - Solar Related Economic Impacts - Annual Earnings

While there is an overall fall in earnings over the forecast period, annual O&M earnings

increase very slightly as new projects achieve commercial operation. These O&M earnings will

persist for the contract term and likely beyond as projects operate post-contract.

5.2.3.3 GDP

Figure 15 shows the annual GDP contributions of solar in Ontario. GDP follows the same trend

as jobs and earnings. GDP from Ontario based solar installations peaks at $499 million in 2017,

drops in 2018 and 2019, but begins to increase again from 2019 to over $130 million in 2021.

Figure 15 - Solar Related Economic Impacts - Annual Contributions to GDP

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5.2.3.4 Tax Treatment

On January 4 2012, changes were made to the Assessment Act in Ontario (298/28) that applied

retroactively to January 1, 2011. These changes clarified the property tax treatment of renewable

energy systems, including solar PV. Generally speaking, rooftop solar PV systems should not

result in a property tax increase if their use is ancillary to other building uses. Determining

whether the use is “ancillary” depends on a number of factors, such as the relative amount of

income from other activities within the building compared to income from solar PV.

For ground-mount solar PV, a similar ancillary use / non-commercial treatment applies, with

additional details. For a system less than 10 kW, no change in either the assessed value or

property classification occurs. For systems 10 to 500 kW, the assessed value can change but the

tax classification should continue to be based on the property’s original use. For systems larger

than 500 kW, the assessed value will change and the tax classification will at least partly change.

The property will be reclassified as industrial from its previous classification to a degree

proportional to the system size up to 500 kW, so a 1 MW system would be entirely reclassified.

The potential changes in assessed value and the tax classification for larger systems could result

in large increases in the tax rate for these systems. Ground-mount systems operated by entities

whose primary business is the generation, transmission or distribution of electricity will be

taxed at an industrial rate.

Table 5 - Property Tax Changes with Solar PV Project in Ontario

System Size (kW) Assessment Value Assessment Class

<= 10 No Change No Change

10 - 500 Increase Possible No Change

> 500 Increase Possible Increase Possible

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5.3 Economic Impacts from Potential Solar Export Activity

Ontario’s solar sector exports both components and services. However, this analysis focuses on

export potential from components alone. Components exported from Ontario are modules,

inverters, and racking.

While solar component manufacturers do have some export experience, they were drawn to

Ontario as a result of the Domestic Content policy which required projects to purchase

components from local manufacturers. Therefore, export markets have not traditionally been

Ontario manufacturers’ focus. To estimate the level of exports over the forecast period,

Compass engaged with the supply chain to understand their:

1. Current production capacity – How much they can produce.

2. Current production – How much they actually produce.

3. Current exports / Ontario market share – How much they could export.

4. Forecast export activity - A combination of historic production, local market share

and forecast export market growth.

However, much of this information is considered confidential and as a result Compass did not

receive a comprehensive set of responses. Further, there are varying levels of uncertainty

associated with forecasting sales and export activity, so several assumptions were made that are

associated with manufacturers known current and forecast production and exports. For

example, data on several module manufacturers current production was used and applied to

other manufacturers that would not provide it.

The total exports for modules are shown in Table 6. To estimate export potential for modules,

Compass assumed an overall market share over the forecast period for all module

manufacturers and then allocated this market share among them based on their ratio of the

calculated 2016 production. Each manufacturer’s anticipated actual production, less their

estimated local market share, was their maximum export potential. The anticipated actual

production is based on the estimated historic actual production plus a growth rate for export

activity.

As shown in Table 6, it is assumed that Ontario-based module manufacturers will capture 50%

of the Ontario residential and commercial solar markets and none of the utility scale market

over the forecast period. Manufacturers are anticipated to serve Ontario market before export

markets. Based on the methodology described above, module export potential of 400 MW in

2017 falls towards 2019 and then increases – the opposite of that for local market sales.


Table 6 - Ontario Module Export Potential (MWDC)

Year Unit 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Ontario Residential & Commercial Market Size MWDC 152 285 271 135 56

Ontario Utility Scale Market Size MWDC 130 91 91 - -

Total Ontario Market Size MWDC 282 376 362 135 56

Local Market Share MWDC 76 143 135 68 28

% of Residential & Commercial Market % 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

Production Ontario Production Capacity MWDC 565 565 565 565 565

Export Potential (MW) MWDC 400 372 389 415 442

For inverters, a steady 20 MW of sales to the U.S. is expected as no evidence for a change in the

magnitude of Ontario sales is found. For racking manufacturers, the surveys did not return a

comprehensive set of responses from the supply chain, but several manufacturers indicated they

are exporting, so known exports were added to account for assumed under reporting.

Table 7 – Forecast Ontario Inverter & Racking Exports

Year Unit 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Inverter Exports MW 20 20 20 20 20

Racking Exports MW 250 250 250 250 250

Figure 16 presents a summary of the solar related exports. As described above, module exports

are anticipated to fall slightly and then rebound as the Ontario solar market contracts, while

inverter and racking exports are anticipated to stay relatively stable over the forecast period.

Figure 16 – Summary of Solar Exports (MWDC)

Based on the forecast export activity shown above, employment from solar exports will fall

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MW

dc

Module Inverter Racking


from a peak of 1,850 FTEs in 2017 to just under 1,600 in 2021. Even though overall export

activity increases from 2018 to 2021 as shown in Figure 16 above, Figure 17 shows that earnings

and GDP fall. This is due to the assumed falling cost of solar PV equipment which will reduce

the overall spending occurring in Ontario.

Figure 17 - Economic Impacts from Solar Exports

1,400

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Earnings GDP Jobs (FTE)


6 Wind

This section focuses on the wind industry in Ontario, its supply chain, forecast installations and

economic performance indicators over the next five years.

6.1 Wind Supply Chain in Ontario

Wind power is the second largest contributor to renewable energy electricity capacity in

Ontario with 4,772 MW installed and an additional 985 MW in development at the end of 2016.

These utility scale wind turbine projects are built with Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines.

Developments in tower design and blade materials are allowing the use of towers that are now

as high as 120 metres, which allow access to stronger wind regimes and higher capacity factors.

The wind turbines consist of mechanical and electrical components to control and efficiently

harness wind and convert it to electrical energy, as seen below in Figure 18. The components

being produced by Ontario manufacturers include production of blades, towers, converters,

nacelles and nacelle components.

Figure 18 - Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine Components

Source: Department of Energy - Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

The installed cost of utility scale wind power is affected by several factors including the size of

the wind farm, local site conditions, proximity to the electrical grid, and the availability of an

established supply chain. Approximately 70% of the total cost of a turbine installation comes

from three main components: the nacelle, blades and tower. Ontario currently has


manufacturing capability for both blades and towers as a result of its Domestic Content policy.

Since the removal of the Domestic Content requirements and suspension of LRP II, the wind

industry in Ontario, while still represented across the supply chain including development,

professional services, component manufacturing, construction, and operations and

maintenance, is in decline. The greatest declines within the Ontario wind industry are in the

early stages of development, professional services, and component manufacturing, see below in

Figure 19.

Figure 19 – Illustrative Wind Power Supply Chain Activity in Ontario

A representative list of active Ontario companies in each section of the supply chain are


The uncertainty around Ontario’s future wind developments creates a cascading effect through

the supply chain. Developers have begun to pivot out of Ontario and reallocate team members

to assess other markets with ongoing procurements. Several developers have estimated a shift

of upwards of 60% of Ontario office staff spending time supporting other markets including

Alberta and Saskatchewan.

As developers pivot, it limits the number of opportunities where Ontario’s professional services

industry can support projects in engineering, environmental studies, permitting, legal, and

consulting work. Many of the large professional service providers typically work across a

number of industries and have a global footprint. These larger professional service providers

are shifting unused resources to other sectors as a result of renewable energy market decline.

On the positive side, other firms are reporting an intention to allocate Ontario staff with

renewable project experience to other markets, leveraging lessons learned here.

With no new large scale utility scale procurements known post-LRP I, it limits the local outlook

for manufacturers. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) that established their own

Development

• Declining Representation

• Engie

• EDF EN Canada

• Renewable Energy Systems Canada

Professional Service

• Declining Representation

• Hatch

• Torys LLP

• Sussex Strategy Group

Component Manufacturing

• Significant Declining Representation

• Siemens Wind Power Ltd.

• CS Wind Canada

• Subcontracted Manufacturers

Construction

• Well Represented

• SURESPAN wind energy services

• AMEC Foster Wheeler Americas Limited

Operations and

Maintenance

• Well Represented

• GE Renewable Energy

• ENERCON

• Senvion Canada Inc.


manufacturing facilities have been more successful in continuing to operate, while others that

used contract manufacturers have reduced their Ontario based manufacturing. Even OEM’s

with their own manufacturing facilities have had to manage through variations in Ontario

demand by cutting production as well as short term and permanent layoffs.

6.2 Economic Impacts from Wind Installations in Ontario

6.2.1 Forecast Wind Installations in Ontario

The following figure shows just over 985 MW of anticipated installations by procurement

between 2017 and 2021. The GEIA will contribute 200 MW in 2017, FIT 1 will contribute to 482

MW across 2017 and 2018, the LRP I is anticipated to contribute 300 MW across 2019 and 2020,

and the FIT 4 and FIT 5 procurements are anticipated to contributed approximately 4 MW

between 2018 and 2020. There are currently no forecasted installations for 2021 as industry is

awaiting new procurements or other incentives mechanisms to become available.

Figure 20 – Forecasted Wind Annual Capacity Additions 2017 - 2021 (MW)


Table 8 displays the forecasted installations of wind power over the next five years. For each year,

the associated total and local capital expenditures, on a per MW basis, and local content percent.

In the next five years these 985 MW of projects will require a total capital investment of just under

$2.2 billion. Of this total, approximately 44% or $958 million will be spent in Ontario.

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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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FIT 1 GEIA LRP I FIT 5 FIT 4


Table 8 – Total and Local Capital Expenditures from Wind


MW Installed (MW) MW 307 378 152 150 0 986

Total Cap Ex / MW $ 2017 Million/MW 2.25 2.22 2.19 2.17 - 2.22

Local Cap Ex / MW $ 2017 Million/MW 1.10 1.09 0.70 0.69 - 0.97

Local Content Percentage % 49% 49% 32% 32% - 44%

Total and local capital expenditures peak in 2018 along with the amount of procurement in that

year. Capital expenditures are reflective of market size and local capital expenditures are

reflective of the local content anticipated to be achieved, see Figure 21.

Figure 21 - Total and Local Capital Expenditure from Wind Power ($ 2017 Millions)

6.2.3 Summary of Wind Performance Indicators

As shown in Table 9, the wind sector will contribute over 16,000 FTE’s, approximately $1.1 billion

in earnings and over $2.3 billion in GDP over the forecast period.

Table 9 - Overview of Wind Related Economic Impacts

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

Jobs Total FTEs 4,220 4,591 2,685 2,705 1,825 16,027

Earnings Total $ 2017 Millions 304.91 329.39 190.37 191.51 126.98 1,143.15

GDP Total $ 2017 Millions 569.12 620.83 422.88 428.35 339.90 2,381.07



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Total Cap Expenditure Local Cap Expenditure Installations



6.2.3.1 Jobs

Wind power is expected to produce just over 16,000 FTEs over the forecast period. New projects

are anticipated to generate over 7,250 FTEs while O&M activities are anticipated to contribute

to an increase in annual FTEs from over 1,500 FTEs associated with legacy projects to over 1,800

FTEs by 2020.

Figure 22 - Annual Employment from Wind Power (FTEs)

6.2.3.2 Earnings

The cumulative total earnings in the wind sector is approximately $1.1 billion over the next 5

years, see Figure 23.

Figure 23 - Annual Earnings from Wind Power ($ 2017 Millions)

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6.2.3.3 GDP

New or incremental expansions to existing projects are anticipated to contribute just over $740

million of GDP over the next five years with the bulk in 2017 and 2018. The aggregate anticipated

total GDP contributions from the wind sector is approximately $2.3 billion over the next 5 years.

Figure 24 - Annual Contributions to GDP from Wind Power ($ 2017 Millions)


Property taxes for wind turbines have evolved over time and are based on property

assessments, classification of land and associated tax rates. The Municipal Property Assessment

Corporation (MPAC) has classified the land occupied by a wind turbine to be industrial.12 The

property tax revenue from wind turbine facilities is based on property evaluation of MPAC on a

MW basis multiplied by the host municipalities industrial tax rates. MPAC prescribes a

property assessment of $50,460 per MW for wind turbines larger than 1.5 MW from 2017 to

2020. The average industrial tax rate within the municipalities that have the highest

concentration of wind turbines, including Chatham-Kent, Owen Sound, Goderich, Brantford,

and Kitchener is 4.23%, see Figure 25. Using this as the tax rate, the property tax associated with

the installed wind turbines will generate approximately $2,150 per MW of installed capacity,

which at 4,772 MW at the end of 2016 will generate $10 million in annual property tax revenue,

growing to $13 million per year from by 2020.

12 Impact of Industrial Wind Turbines on Residential Property Assessment in Ontario 2016 Assessment Base Year Study

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Figure 25 – Ontario Wind Turbine Installations

Source: Renewable energy policy and Ontario wind turbine development, Margaret S. Loudermilk,

Ivey Business School Western

6.3 Economic Impacts from Potential Wind Export Activity

Although the Ontario wind sector has been looking outside of Ontario for the last few years, as

discussed above, the remaining wind manufacturers in Ontario are well positioned to capitalize

on the opportunity to supply to projects in neighbouring jurisdictions. Figure 26 below displays

the potential export activity over the next five years.


Figure 26 – Summary of Annual Wind Power Exports

There has been continual growth in wind developments globally with an additional 52 GW of

capacity added in 2016.13 Neighbouring markets with export opportunities will procure over

10,000 MW of wind generation over the next 15 years or approximately 750 MW annually. As

described above, Ontario manufacturers are anticipated to be competitive with other equipment

suppliers in order to capture part of this market. Figure 27 displays the economic impacts from

potential wind exports over the next five years.

Figure 27 – Economic Impacts from Wind Exports

13 Global Wind Energy Council “Global Wind Statistics 2016” http://www.gwec.net/wp-

content/uploads/vip/GWEC_PRstats2016_EN_WEB.pdf

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http://www.gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/vip/GWEC_PRstats2016_EN_WEB.pdf

http://www.gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/vip/GWEC_PRstats2016_EN_WEB.pdf


The expected wages and GDP from wind power exports is expected to grow over the next five

years to just under $40 million and approximately $55 million, respectively. Additionally,

Ontario jobs relating to exports for wind power are expected to rise to over 550 in the next five

years.


7 Hydroelectricity

This section focuses on the hydroelectricity industry in Ontario, its supply chain, forecast

installations and economic performance indicators over the next five years.

7.1 Hydroelectric Supply Chain in Ontario

Hydroelectricity has a long history in Ontario, as it was responsible for the electrification of the

province almost a century ago. There are more than 120 hydroelectric facilities across Southern

Ontario and over 210 in the province. Generally, there are two types of hydroelectric facilities,

run-of-river and reservoir (or dam). The main difference being the presence of a reservoir and

therefore the availability of constant and controlled water flow. Run-of-river facilities must

depend on the flow of the river year-round, which may lead to excess flow that cannot be used

in the spring due to snow melt and potentially reduced flows in summer and winter months.

The main components of a hydroelectric facility are the reservoir (as applicable), intake,

penstock, turbine, generator within the powerhouse, and the tailrace leading back into the river

as displayed below.

Figure 28 - Overview of a Hydroelectric Facility

Source: Ontario Waterpower Association

The natural drop in elevation or a manufactured height using a reservoir is used to convert

potential energy to kinetic energy and finally to electricity by the use of a turbine and generator.

Figure 29 below displays different sections of the hydroelectric supply chain and the level of

activity in Ontario.


Figure 29 – Illustrative Hydroelectric Supply Chain Activity in Ontario

The hydroelectric supply chain is generally well represented in Ontario, with developers,

professional services, construction and operation and maintenance services offered by companies

located in Ontario. The component manufacturing is somewhat represented in Ontario. The most

notable pieces of equipment are the turbines and generators. There are two turbine manufacturers

located in Ontario, both of which serve the small hydro market, under 25MW. Both turbine

manufacturing companies have been operating in Ontario for approximately 25 years.

Additionally, there are two Ontario manufacturing locations of copper coils for hydroelectric

generators. These two facilities export upwards of 50% of their manufacturing capacity per

year. A representative list of active Ontario companies in each section of the supply chain are


7.2 Economic Impacts from Hydroelectric Installations in Ontario

7.2.1 Forecast Hydroelectric Installations in Ontario

Over the next five years, it is expected that just over 120 MW of hydroelectric projects will be

designed, constructed or upgraded, and achieve commercial operation in Ontario. Ontario has a

large operating capacity of hydroelectricity made up of large hydro projects on the multi-MW

scale (100MW+). Further development in Ontario is primarily focused on upgrading existing

sites rather than developing new large scale hydroelectric projects. Additionally, it is expected

that there will be development of small hydro, under 20 MW per project, as the remaining IESO

contracted projects are constructed and achieve commercial operation. The forecasted

hydroelectric installations by procurement type over the next five years are displayed below in

Figure 30.

Development

•Well represented

•Ontario Power Generation

•Andritz Hydro Canada

•Voith Hydro



•Golder Associates

•SNC-Lavalin

•Dillon Consulting

•Pinchin

Professional Services


•Maple Reinders Construction

•Chant Group of Companies

•TESC Constracting Company

Engineering, Design, and Construction



•Capstone Infrastructure Corp.


•Voith Hydro

Operations and

Maintenance

•Somewhat represented

•Canadian Hydro Components

•Norcan Hydraulic Turbine


•Voith Hydro


Figure 30 – Forecasted Hydroelectric Annual Capacity Additions 2017 - 2021 (MW)

The forecast hydroelectric installations in Ontario over the next five years peak in 2018, at just

over 50 MW, and decline dramatically into 2020 and 2021, at 1.4 MW and 0.95 MW respectively.

Installations leading up to and following the peak year in 2018 are just over 45 MW in 2017 and

just over 20 MW in 2019.

Due to longer permitting and build times required for hydroelectric projects, more recent

procurements including FIT3, FIT4, FIT5, and LRP I, are expected to come online within the

next 6 to 10 years. These projects total approximately 60 MW of additional hydroelectric

facilities are not included in the forecasts of economic activity.


Table 10 displays the MW installed in each year, along with the total and local capital

expenditures, local content percent, and the total and local capital expenditures on a per MW

basis of installed capacity. In the next five years, approximately $660 million will be spent on

hydroelectric projects, $463 million of which, or 68% on average, will be locally spent in

Ontario.

Table 10 – Total and Local Capital Expenditure from Hydroelectricity ($ 2017 Millions)


Installed Capacity MW 47 51 21 1 1 121




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

HESA HESOP HCI FIT 1 FIT 2


Figure 31 displays the total and local capital expenditures on an annual basis, as well as the MW

installed in each year.

Figure 31 – Total and Local Capital Expenditure from Hydroelectricity ($ 2017 Millions)

As expected, total capital expenditures peak in 2018 at just under $350 million. The local

expenditures are a percentage of the total capital expenditures and depend on the source of the

materials, goods, or services used in the development of the project. Similar to the total capital

expenditure, the local capital expenditure is related to current development, therefore it peaks

in 2018 and dramatically decreases in 2020 and 2021, along with installations. Total and local

capital expenditures depend on the amount of procurements in a given year.

7.2.3 Hydroelectric Specific Performance Indicators

The performance indicators used to assess the hydroelectric industry in Ontario are displayed

below in Table 11. Over the next five years, the hydroelectric industry is anticipated to

contribute approximately 13,690 FTEs, over $1 billion in wages and over $1.6 billion in GDP

over the forecast period.

Table 11 – Overview of Hydroelectric Related Economic Impacts

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

Jobs Total FTEs/year 3,255 4,214 2,377 1,909 1,938 13,693

Earnings Total $ 2017 Millions 256.40 335.10 180.50 141.00 143.20 1,056.20

GDP Total $ 2017 Millions 380.28 472.88 286.38 237.28 239.98 1,616.79




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

$ 2

01

7 M

illio

ns

Total Cap Expenditure Local Cap Expenditure MW Installed


7.2.3.1 Jobs

Figure 32 displays the annual number of jobs created due to activity in the hydroelectric supply

chain in Ontario.

Figure 32 – Annual Job Impacts from Hydroelectricity (FTEs)

As expected the number of jobs peak in the same year that installations peak. The highest job

contributions come from O&M for legacy hydro capacity, which represent 67% of total jobs. It is

important to note that there is a constant amount of jobs from operations and maintenance

maintained over the lifetime of the contracts, at approximately 1,830 FTEs.

7.2.3.2 Earnings

Figure 33 displays the annual wages over the next five years due to new development of

hydroelectric projects and operations and maintenance activities.

Figure 33 – Annual Earnings Impacts from Hydroelectricity ($ 2017 Millions)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

FTEs


-

10

20

30

40

50

60

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

$ 2

01

7 M

illio

ns



The annual earnings from Ontario based installations peak in 2018, at just over $335 million,

relating to the amount of project development in that year. The constant portion of operations

and maintenance for legacy projects is displayed across all years at just over $139 million in

annual wages.

7.2.3.3 GDP

Figure 34 displays the annual GDP contributions from hydroelectric projects over the next 5 years.

As expected, the highest contributions occur in the peak year for hydroelectric installations, in

2018, with just over $470 million contributing to GDP in Ontario.

Figure 34 – Annual Contributions to GDP from Hydroelectricity ($ 2017 Millions)

A large portion of contributions to GDP come from operations and maintenance of legacy hydro

capacity. The GDP contributions due to operations and maintenance activities, which will

remain generally stable over the lifetime of the contracts, is approximately $235 million.


In 2001 changes were made to existing property taxes and water rental charges paid by

hydroelectric generating facility owners and water power leaseholders. These charges were

replaced with taxes and charges on the gross revenues of the hydroelectric generating facilities.

The Gross Revenue Charge (GRC) is made up of the following three components:

1. The GRC Property Tax component payable to the Minister of Finance;

2. The GRC Property Tax component payable to the Ontario Electricity Financial

Corporation (OEFC); and

3. The GRC Water Rental component payable to the Minister of Finance

The GRC rates for property tax components and the water rental charge are displayed below in

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

$ 2

01

7 M

illio

ns



Table 12. Only incremental annual generation above 700 GWh per year is charged at the

increased rate.

Table 12 – Gross Revenue Charge Breakdown

Total Annual

Generation (GWh/yr)

Property Tax

Rate (%)

Water Rental

Rate (%)

Total Tax

Rate (%)

0 – 50 2.5 9.5 12

50 – 400 4.5 9.5 14

400 – 700 6.0 9.5 15.5

> 700 26.5 9.5 36

The average provincial taxes paid by representative project sizes are displayed below in Table 13.

Gross revenue is the amount calculated by multiplying the facility's annual generation of

electricity for the year by a price of $40,000 per gigawatt hour. Each facility is assumed to have a

capacity factor of 50%.

Table 13 – Average Gross Revenue Charge by Representative Project Sizes

Project Size

(MW)

Annual Generation

(GWh/yr)

Gross

Revenue ($) GRC Tax (%) GRC Tax ($)

5 21.9 $876,000 12 $105,120

20 87.6 $3,504,000 14 $490,560

100 438 $17,520,000 15.5 $2,715,600

500 2190 $87,600,000 36 $27,944,400

For the purposes of determining the annual average amount spent on GRC, it is assumed that

Ontario’s installed capacity is operating at a 50% capacity factor and that the average annual

generation is between 5-400 GWh per year, corresponding to a total tax rate of 14%, resulting in

GRC payments ranging from $214 to $217 million per year.

Table 14 – Annual Gross Revenue Charge Total

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Installed Capacity MW 8,714 8,761 8,812 8,833 8,834

Capacity Factor % 50 50 50 50 50

Annual Generation GWh/yr 38,167 38,371 38,595 38,689 38,695

Gross Revenue $ 2017 Millions 1,527 1,535 1,544 1,548 1,548

GRC Tax Paid $ 2017 Millions 214 215 216 217 217


7.3 Economic Impacts from Potential Hydroelectric Export Activity

Ontario manufacturers of hydroelectric components, namely the turbines and generators, supply

the Ontario the U.S., and global markets. The local Ontario market demand is heavily correlated

to procurements and refurbishments. Figure 35 displays the annual exports of manufactured

hydroelectric components on a MW basis.

Figure 35 – Summary of Hydroelectric Exports (MW)

Ontario manufacturing supply chains that served Ontario projects are shifting towards exports

due to the lack of procurement in Ontario and therefore lower local demand. There is, however,

still demand within Ontario for upgrades/refurbishments, but this represents a fraction of

previous activity. The current installed capacity undergoes upgrades/refurbishments

periodically. Generally, this is 40-50 years after the installation date, barring other extensive

damage to the equipment.

Many manufacturers and service providers serve markets outside of Ontario, including other

provinces, like British Columbia, and some U.S. states including New England states and New

York. The export potential for Ontario hydroelectric manufacturers of turbines and copper coils

of generators are displayed below in Table 15 and Table 16.

Table 15 – Average Annual Ontario Hydroelectric Turbine Export Potential

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Local Market Size MW 47 51 21 1 1

Production Capacity MW 45 45 45 45 45

Local Market Share MW 8 8 8 8 8

Export Potential MW 37 37 37 37 37

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

Generator Turbine


Table 16 - Average Annual Ontario Hydroelectric Generator Export Potential

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Local Market Size MW 47 51 21 1 1

Production Capacity MW 284 284 284 284 284

Local Market Share MW 67 67 67 67 67

Export Potential MW 217 217 217 217 217

Of the export markets served by the Ontario hydroelectric manufacturers and service providers,

most have specific targets of renewable energy procurement that must be met within the next 5-

10 years. Generally, there are few hydroelectric specific procurements, however it is expected

that hydroelectric projects will be successful in these export markets. Of note is the 60 MW of

small hydroelectric procurement expected in Massachusetts in the near future.

As shown above, this analysis assumes a steady state of hydro export activity, including 37 MW

of turbine exports and 217 MW of generator exports per year. Using these export figures, the

jobs, earnings and GDP impacts accruing to Ontario were calculated using the JEDI model.

They result in just under 200 people employed per year, earning a total of $17.5 million and

contributing over $20 million in GDP on an annual basis, see Figure 36.

Figure 36 – Economic Impacts from Hydro Exports

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

5

10

15

20

25

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

FTEs

$ 2

01

7 M

illio

ns

Wages GDP Jobs


8 Biogas

This section focuses on the biogas industry in Ontario, its supply chain, forecast installations

and performance indicators over the next five years.

8.1 Biogas Supply Chain in Ontario

Biogas is created when organic matter breaks down in an oxygen free environment, also known

as anaerobic digestion. The feedstock for a biogas facility generally fall into these main

categories:

• agriculture (livestock manure or crop residue)

• source-separated organic materials from residences and commercial buildings

• landfills

• bio-solids from wastewater treatment

A diagram of a biogas facility is displayed below in Figure 37. The feedstock is what drives

production, but is limited by local availability/production. In many cases, an on-farm biogas

facility cannot produce enough feedstock for a large enough capacity to be economically

feasible and must import additional feedstock from a local source. Not only is this an additional

cost, it is typically not a reliable source of feedstock for an extended period of time.

Figure 37 - Overview of a Biogas Facility


The main component of biogas is methane, similar to natural gas. Biogas can be upgraded to

Renewable Natural Gas, which has similar applications to natural gas. It should be noted that

this report focuses solely on the economic benefits of biogas to electricity.

Figure 38 below displays different sections of the biogas supply chain and the level of activity in

Ontario.

Figure 38 – Illustrative Biogas Supply Chain Activity in Ontario

The biogas supply chain is generally well represented in Ontario, with distributors,

engineering, design and construction, operations and maintenance, and professional services

offered by companies located in Ontario. The exception is component manufacturing, which is

generally not present in Ontario. The most notable pieces of equipment are the digesters and

generators. A majority of the digester technology is imported from Europe. Other components

including odour control are also sourced from outside of Ontario. A representative list of active

Ontario companies in each section of the supply chain are attached in Appendix E –

Representative Supply Chains in Ontario.

8.2 Economic Impacts from Biogas Installations in Ontario

8.2.1 Forecasted Biogas Installations in Ontario

Over the next five years, it is expected that approximately 7 MW of biogas projects will be

designed, constructed, and achieve commercial operation in Ontario. The forecasted biogas

installations by procurement type over the next five years are displayed below in Figure 39.

Development

•Well represented

•CCi Bio Energy

•PlanET Biogas

•Yield Biogas


•Somewhat respresented

•CEM Engineering

•Golder Associates



•CCi Bio Energy

•PlanET Biogas

•Yield Biogas

Operations and

Maintenance


•CCi Bio Energy

•PlanET Biogas

•Yield Biogas


•Not well represented


Figure 39 – Forecasted Biogas Annual Capacity Additions 2017 - 2021 (MW)



expenditures, local content percent, and the total and local capital expenditures on a per MW

basis of installed capacity. In the next five years, approximately $90 million will be spent on

biogas projects, $43 million of which, or 47% on average, will be local spending in Ontario.

Table 17 – Total and Local Capital Expenditure from Biogas ($ 2017 Millions)



Total Cap Ex / MW $ 2017 Million/MW 12.30 - 12.30 12.30 - 12.30

Local Cap Ex / MW $ 2017 Million/MW 5.80 - 5.80 5.80 - 5.80

Local Content Percentage % 47% - 47% 47% - 47%



0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

FIT 2 FIT 3 FIT 4 FIT 5


Figure 40 – Total and Local Capital Expenditure from Biogas ($ 2017 Millions)

The local expenditures are a percentage of the total capital expenditures and depend on the

source of the materials, goods, or services used in the development of the project. Total and

local capital expenditures depend on the amount of installations in a given year.

8.2.3 Biogas Specific Performance Indicators

The performance indicators used to assess the biogas industry in Ontario are displayed below in

Table 18. As shown below, over the next five years, the biogas industry is anticipated to contribute

almost 1,000 FTEs, approximately $77 million in wages and approximately $106 million in GDP

over the forecast period.

Table 18 – Overview of Biogas Related Economic Impacts

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

Jobs Total FTEs/year 183 95 161 367 180 986



An additional breakdown of the economic impacts is available in Appendix D – Data Tables. The

following sections describe each performance indicator in greater detail as they relate to new

build activity and operations and maintenance (O&M) activity.

8.2.3.1 Jobs

Figure 41 displays the annual number of jobs created due to activity in the biogas supply chain

in Ontario.

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

$ 2

01

7 M

illio

ns

Total Cap Expenditure Local Cap Expenditure Installed Capacity


Figure 41 – Annual Employment Impacts from Biogas (FTEs)

As expected the number of jobs peak in the same year that installations peak, with a steady

increase in the O&M related jobs over time.

8.2.3.2 Earnings

Figure 42 displays the annual wages over the next five years due to new development of Biogas

projects and operations and maintenance activities.

Figure 42 – Annual Earnings Impacts from Biogas ($ 2017 Millions)

The annual earnings from Ontario based installations peak in 2020, at approximately $29 million,

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

FTEs


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

$ 2

01

7 M

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due to the amount of installations in that year.

8.2.3.3 GDP

Figure 43 displays the annual GDP contributions from biogas projects over the next five years. As

expected, the highest contributions occur in the peak year for biogas installations, in 2020, with

approximately $38 million contributing to GDP in Ontario.

Figure 43 – Annual Contributions to GDP from Biogas ($ 2017 Millions)

Over the next five years it is expected that the biogas industry in Ontario will contribute

approximately $83 million to GDP.

8.2.4 Economic Impacts from Potential Biogas Export Activity

As there is no significant Ontario manufacturing of the major biogas components, no export

activity is anticipated over the forecast period.

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

$ 2

01

7 M

illio

ns



9 Biomass

This section focuses on the biomass industry in Ontario, its supply chain, forecast installations

and performance indicators over the next five years.

9.1 Biomass Supply Chain in Ontario

A biomass facility uses a biological fuel containing high amounts of carbon, such as wood

pellets or other types of plants. Generally, these biomass fuels are not used for food or feed and

are classified as renewable because the feedstock can be regrown. Figure 44 displays a standard

biomass to electricity facility.

Figure 44 - Overview of a Biomass Facility

The biomass enters the facility from a storage container system, is combusted to produce heat,

which in turn creates steam within a hot water boiler. The stream from the boiler powers a

turbine, which powers a generator and produces electricity.


Figure 45 – Illustrative Biomass Supply Chain Activity in Ontario

The biomass supply chain is somewhat represented in Ontario, with some developers and

professional service providers serving this market. There is not any significant component

manufacturing present in Ontario, but engineering, design and construction, operations and

maintenance, and professional services are well represented. A representative list of active

Ontario companies in each section of the supply chain are attached in Appendix E –

Representative Supply Chains in Ontario.

9.2 Economic Impacts from Biomass Installations in Ontario

9.2.1 Forecasted Biomass Installations in Ontario

Over the next five years, it is expected that just over 2 MW of biomass projects will be designed,

constructed, and achieve commercial operation in Ontario. The forecasted biomass installations

by procurement type over the next five years are displayed below in Figure 46.

Figure 46 – Forecasted Biomass Annual Capacity Additions 2017 - 2021 (MW)

Development


•KMW Energy





•Andy Veenstra Farms Ltd.

•Atitkokan Renewable Fuels

•etc.

Operations and Maintenance


•KMW Energy

•Naanovo Energy



•Not represented

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

FIT 3 FIT 4 FIT 5




expenditures per MW and the local content percent. In the next five years, approximately $28

million will be spent on biomass projects, $13 million of which, or 47% on average, will be local

spending in Ontario.

Table 19 – Total and Local Capital Expenditure from Biomass ($ 2017 Millions)


Installed Capacity MW 0.5 1 0.3 0.5 0 2.3






Figure 47 – Total and Local Capital Expenditure from Biomass ($ 2017 Millions)

The local expenditures are a percentage of the total capital expenditures and depend on the

source of the materials, goods, or services used in the development of the project. Total and

local capital expenditures depend on the amount of procurements in a given year.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

$ 2

01

7 M

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Total Cap Expenditure Local Cap Expenditure Installed Capacity


9.2.3 Biomass Specific Performance Indicators

The performance indicators used to assess the biomass industry in Ontario are displayed below

in Table 20. As shown below, over the next five years, the biomass industry is anticipated to

contribute almost 2,000 FTEs, approximately $160 million in wages and approximately $255

million in GDP over the forecast period.

Table 20 – Overview of Biomass Related Economic Impacts

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

Jobs Total FTEs/year 382 420 391 410 388 1,992



An additional breakdown of the economic impacts is available in Appendix D – Data Tables. The

following sections describe each performance indicator in greater detail as they relate to new

build activity and operations and maintenance (O&M) activity.

9.2.3.1 Jobs

Figure 48 displays the annual number of jobs created due to activity in the biomass supply chain

in Ontario. The majority of jobs in the biomass industry in Ontario are related to operations and

maintenance for legacy biomass projects at approximately 350 FTEs. Two large legacy biomass

projects were procured through the Atikokan Biomass Energy Supply Agreement (ABESA) and

Thunder Bay Biomass Energy Supply Agreement (TBESA), which came online in 2014 and 2015,

respectively. These projects converted coal burning facilities to biomass.

Figure 48 – Annual Employment Impacts from Biomass (FTEs)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

FTEs



9.2.3.2 Earnings

Figure 49 displays the annual wages over the next five years due to new development of biomass

projects and operations and maintenance activities. The annual earnings are relatively stable at

around $30 million. This is mainly due to wages relating to operations and maintenance on legacy

biomass projects.

Figure 49 – Annual Earnings Impacts from Biomass ($ 2017 Millions)

9.2.3.3 GDP

Figure 50 displays the annual GDP contributions from biomass projects over the next 5 years. The

largest contribution comes from operations and maintenance of legacy biomass projects, which

remain relatively stable at approximately $46 million per year.

Figure 50 – Annual Contributions to GDP from Biomass ($ 2017 Millions)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

$ 2

01

7 M

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0

0.2

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1.2

0

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60

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

$ 2

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7 M

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Over the next five years it is expected that the biomass industry in Ontario will contribute

approximately $255 million to GDP.

9.2.4 Economic Impacts from Potential Biomass Export Activity

Similar to the biogas sector, as there is no significant Ontario manufacturing of the major

biomass components, no export activity is anticipated over the forecast period.


10 Conclusion

The Ontario renewable energy sector is evolving away from centralized procurements for

distributed generation resources over the near term. Contracted, committed, net metered and

operating renewable energy assets in Ontario are forecast to create 56,500 FTEs, contribute $3

billion to earnings, and $5.4 billion to GDP, across all renewable technologies over the next five

years, see Figure 51.

Figure 51 – Summary of Jobs and GDP from Ontario Based Installations

Local projects have been the primary driver for economic activity and these have been tied to

local procurements. In the near term, net metering and export activity represent two ways in

which Ontario will see economic activity within the renewable energy sector that is not driven

by Ontario based procurements.

The transition to net metering creates revenue and counter party risk not currently present in

the FIT and microFIT programs, which will reduce initial uptake during the forecast period.

Modest uptake for solar is anticipated in the near term, but other renewable energy technologies

are not expected to be feasible or economic under the recent changes to the net metering

regulation that come into force in July 2017. Allowing third party ownership in conjunction

with single or multi-entity virtual net metering – all potential changes to the net metering

regulation – should drive activity for larger and a more technology diverse set of projects. In the

medium to long term, the shift to net metering is anticipated to support the growth of the

distributed generation market as technology costs, such as solar PV, continue to fall.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

FTEs

Wind Hydro

Solar Biomass

Biogas Installation Forecast

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

GD

P -

$ 2

01

7 M

illio

ns

Wind Hydro

Solar Biomass

Biogas Installation Forecast


Outside of Ontario, the demand for renewable energy continues to grow, driven by falling

technology costs as well as an increase in renewable portfolio standards. Despite global

competition, many of Ontario’s renewable energy sector manufacturers have already been

serving exports markets in Canada and the U.S. and are anticipated to continue to do so in the

near term. The proximity to the U.S., one of the largest markets for wind and solar development

globally, provides a competitive advantage to Ontario exporters associated with lower shipping

and logistical costs. Exports have the potential to create an additional 10,700 FTEs, contribute

$740 million to earnings, and $1 billion to GDP over the forecast period, see Figure 52 below. As

shown, solar represents the largest export opportunity in terms of jobs and GDP.

Figure 52 - Summary of Jobs and GDP from Potential Export Activity

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

FTEs

Axis Title

Wind Hydro Solar

Biomass Biogas Export MW

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

0

50

100

150

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250

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

GD

P -

$ 2

01

7 M

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Axis Title

Wind Hydro Solar

Biomass Biogas Export MW

Ontario’s CCAP demonstrates its commitment to decarbonizing its economy via a shift towards

electrification of fossil fuelled energy use, resulting in higher electricity demand, as modelled in

the IESO’s OPO. This increased electricity demand will be served in part by a variety of low or

non-emitting resources, including renewables. Ontario is among many sub-national

jurisdictions in North America seeking to reduce its carbon footprint which means there will be

long term growth of export markets for Ontario based component manufacturers. It is this

combination of decarbonization, at home and abroad, in conjunction with falling renewable

technology costs that will generate growth in Ontario’s renewable energy sector in the medium

to long term.


11 Appendix A – Glossary

Capital Expenditures refers to the total capital costs associated with developing and installing a

renewable energy project, measured in $/kW or $/MW installed. For example, connection costs

are included.

Earnings refers to wage and salary compensation paid to workers.

Employment or “Jobs” is measured in Full Time Equivalents (FTE).

Export activity refers to any economic activity associated with the renewable energy sector that

occurs in Ontario or by Ontario-based employees for projects or clients outside of Ontario.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total unduplicated value

of the goods and services. It is typically measured for an economic territory of a country or

region during a given period. In this study, GDP refers to impacts occurring in Ontario as result

of economic activity occurring within the renewable energy sector.

Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines have the main rotor shaft and electrical generator at the top of

a tower, and may be pointed into or out of the wind.

Jobs refers to Full Time Equivalents (FTE) which represents full time employment for one year.

(1 FTE = 2,080 hours)

Local Capital Expenditure is the percentage or allocation of the total Capital Expenditure spent

in Ontario.

Output refers to economic activity or the value of production in the region or local economy.

Output is defined more broadly than other metrics of economic activity including value added

(or GDP). Output is the sum value of all goods and services at all stages of production (i.e., as a

raw material and as a finished product), where value added refers only to the market value of

the final product.

Value Added is an estimate of GDP and is the difference between total gross output and the

cost of intermediate inputs.


12 Appendix B – Scope and Objectives The market assessment included qualitative and quantitative components. From a qualitative

perspective, the market assessment:

1. Identifies recent trends affecting the sector’s composition and performance in domestic and

international markets; and

2. Highlights strategies the sector is taking to evolve and adapt to anticipated future trends

domestically and internationally, including its growth prospects;

From a quantitative perspective, this market assessment:

3. Evaluates the sector’s current overall status using the following performance indicators:

a) Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

b) Employment

c) Capital Expenditures

d) Government (e.g. tax revenue)

e) Export activity

f) Company Performance Indicators

4. Evaluates the current and anticipated direct and indirect jobs and investments from:

a) The current and future procurements and climate change initiatives in Ontario including:

i. LRP I, FIT 4, FIT 5, microFIT 2017

ii. Forecasts of uptake under the recently updated net metering regulation


13 Appendix C – Detailed Approach

Economic impacts from the renewable energy sector occur across the supply chain including

development, contracting, permitting, construction, manufacturing and operations. Ontario’s

economic impacts from the renewable energy sector are determined by local economic activity,

which is a function of local installations as well as the level of the sector’s export activity. When

Ontario-based companies sell their goods or provide their services to projects outside of

Ontario, they are considered “export activities” as they result in economic benefits to Ontario

even if they are provided to another jurisdiction.

To provide this market assessment Compass combined its existing knowledge base with sector

outreach and Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) data to develop a forecast of

market activity measured in Megawatts (MW) by renewable energy technology. This forecast was

then used in combination with National Renewable Energy Laboratories Jobs and Economic

Development Impacts (JEDI) model to calculate annual impacts.14

13.1 Sector Engagement

Sector engagement was critical to provide a richer picture of sector activities and responses to

the current environment. To support our engagement, Compass worked through the following

four industry associations to promote and circulate the survey instrument.

Solar: Canadian Solar Industry Association

Wind: Canadian Wind Energy Association

Hydro: Ontario Water Power Association

Biogas: Canadian Biogas Association

Key areas of research included forecast installations in Ontario, anticipated adoption under

recent and potential changes to Ontario’s net metering regulation, technology costs (i.e. capital,

operations and labour) and export activity.

The primary research involved both web and telephone interviews across the four technology

specific supply chains that are the focus of this assignment. In total, input was received from

over 60 participants including, 31 telephone based interviews and 26 web based survey

responses15, see Figure 53 and Figure 54 below. Input was received from a cross section of

technology and supply chain participants.

14 NREL, Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models, http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/jedi/ 15 Web responses were only counted if a respondent provided more than their name and company

affiliation.

http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/jedi/


Figure 53 – Survey Sample Size by Technology

Figure 54 – Survey Sample Size by Role in Supply Chain

13.2 Overview of JEDI Model

NREL’s JEDI models are input-output based models designed to assess employment and

economic impacts in a province or region from investments in a power generation project. JEDI

utilizes industry specific economic data to estimate local economic activity and the resulting

impacts. Economic impacts are based on project specific costs (capital and operations), project

cost allocations, local spending and inter-industry effects using industry specific multipliers.

For example, the cost of a wind turbine, the amount of that turbine that is purchased in Ontario

and the resulting industries impacted by that purchase, e.g. metal fabrication, are incorporated

into the JEDI model’s calculation of economic impacts. Multipliers for employment, wage and

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Solar Wind Hydro Biogas Biomass

#

Telephone Web

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Developer Manufacturer EPC/Installer Service Provider

Telephone Web


salary, output, value added and personal spending patterns are embedded within the JEDI

model and used to analyze the direct, indirect and induced impacts from power generation

investments. Figure 55 provides an overview of the different types of data used by the JEDI

model.

Figure 55 - JEDI Model Mechanics

Figure 56 provides an overview of the key input parameters needed to calculate the performance

indicators and economic outputs.

Figure 56 – Overview of Key Parameters Impacting Economic Outputs

Compass took several steps to ensure the JEDI model was calibrated for Ontario-based projects.

These included ensuring the multipliers used in the model were specific to Ontario as well as the

capital costs and capital cost allocations reflective of Ontario-based projects. In addition, Compass

accounted for the contribution of Ontario-based component and service providers and as well as

local wages, taxes and land lease rates.

Both the installation forecast and the JEDI input parameters related to costs, both capital and

operating, and local content were vetted through the sector outreach which included both an on-

line and phone-based survey. Overall over 25 JEDI models were created to account for differences

across technologies, market segment (i.e. residential, commercial, utility scale) and evolving

capital costs. JEDI calculates the following economic outputs: Jobs, Earnings, Output and

approximate contributions towards Gross Domestic Product (GDP), using industrial sector

Capital Costs

•Total Cost

•Component Cost

•Other: Wages, taxes, lease payments, etc.

Local Spending

•Components

•Balance of Plant

•Professional Services

•Development

Economic Multipliers

•Jobs (FTE)

•Earnings

•Outputs

Economic Outputs

•FTEs

•Earnings (Wages)

•Output

•GDP

Procurement or Trend

(MW)

•FIT, mFIT, LRP I

•Net Metering

•CCAP & Carbon Pricing

•Global Growth

Renewable Sector

Activity

•Development


•Manufacturing

•Construction

•Operations

Costs ($)

•Total Captial Cost

•Component Cost

•Other: Wages, taxes, lease payments, O&M

Local Spending (%)

• Manufacturing

•Balance of Plant


•Development

Economic Multipliers

•Jobs (FTE)

•Earnings

•Outputs

•GDP

Economic Outputs

•FTEs

• Earnings (Wages)

•Output

•GDP


relationships.

13.3 Methodological & Simplifying Assumptions

Methodological assumptions include:

• All projects of the same technology and size range, within a given procurement had

similar costs and economic impacts on a per unit basis

• Attrition is included for FIT 4 and FIT 5 solar projects based on FIT 3 attrition rates. No

additional attrition for contracted FIT or Green Energy Investment Agreement (GEIA)

projects.

• Jobs and investments were calculated on a per MW basis by procurement type, by year

and then applied to actual Ontario installations

• Only direct and indirect impacts included

• Economic activity, and costs, were linked to the year that projects achieved Commercial

Operation

• All economic performance indicators including earnings and GDP are reported in 2017

dollars.

As described above, this analysis includes assessing economic impacts associated with future

net metering and export activity. Compass engaged with local supply chains to understand

their anticipated level of activity.

13.3.1.1 Net Metering

Net metering activity was forecast based on respondent’s answers to questions regarding their

anticipated level of installations in 2018, in a net metering environment, versus 2017, in a FIT

and microFIT environment. While there was consensus that the market would contract

following the end of FIT and microFIT, there was high variation by how much. In addition,

most respondents were unable to quantify the forecast market contraction and provided

qualitative assessments of the reduction in market size.

Compass considered the overall trend and the quantitative responses it did receive in

conjunction with its own assessment of renewable energy adoption under net metering to

develop the net metering forecasts.

13.3.1.2 Export Activity

Export activity was estimated based on a combination of current local component supplier

production capacity, historic production utilization, local market size and local market share. In

general, for a specific component type, export activity was derived using the following

relationship:


Export Activity = Production Capacity (MW) x Production Utilization (%) less Local Market

Share (MW)

For a given component this then allowed for modelling a quantity of MWs being exported in

each year over the forecast period.

There are two counterbalancing limitations associated with this approach:

1) It relies on voluntary self-reporting, limited to those manufacturers that Compass engaged

with, and therefore the total volumes of activity are likely to be conservative.

2) There were several instances where information for specific manufacturers was not available

or limited and therefore Compass had to infer the data points based on other respondent’s

information.

3) Assumes that there is no decline in production capacity as a result of a decline in local market

activity.

13.4 Exclusions

The following economic impacts were excluded from this analysis:

1. Financing / Local Ownership – The equity and debt capital needed to develop, construct

and operate these facilities comes from both local and extra-Ontario sources. While several

locally owned developers and debt providers serve the Ontario market, their relative

share of the total capital requirements was not incorporated into the analysis.

2. Induced Impacts – The JEDI model does calculate induced impacts based on input

assumptions provided, including Ontario specific induced multipliers. However, due to

the nature of induced impacts, being associated with personal expenditures, and the

assumption that these impacts respond perfectly elastically from direct and indirect

activity, they can overstate actual impacts and were therefore ignored.


14 Appendix D – Data Tables

This appendix provides additional detailed figures for each of the technologies economic

impacts.

14.1 All Renewable technologies

Table 21 – Combined Forecast of Employment Impacts (FTEs/year)

Technology 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

Wind 4,220 4,591 2,685 2,705 1,825 16,027

Hydro 3,255 4,214 2,377 1,910 1,938 13,694

Solar 7,538 6,191 5,403 2,751 1,982 23,865

Biomass 382 420 391 410 388 1,992

Biogas 183 95 161 367 180 986

Total 15,578 15,511 11,018 8,143 6,314 56,564

Table 22 – Combined Forecast of Employment Intensity for New Installations (FTEs/MW)

Technology 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Wind 9 8 6 6 -

Hydro 30 46 23 13 48

Solar 23 14 12 11 11

Biomass - - - - -

Biogas - - - - -

*Biomass and biogas are not included as this is a ratio and the relatively small amount of procurements

skews the numbers

Table 23 – Combined Forecast Earnings ($ 2107 Millions)


Wind 304.91 329.39 190.37 191.51 126.98 1,143.15

Hydro 256.42 335.13 180.48 140.99 143.26 1,056.28

Solar 361.33 113.73 60.42 62.37 76.01 673.86

Biomass 30.57 32.97 29.37 30.57 28.17 151.65

Biogas 14.39 4.79 10.07 25.19 4.79 59.25

Total 967.62 816.01 470.71 450.64 379.21 3,084.19

Table 24 – Combined Forecast GDP Impacts ($ 2017 Millions)


Wind 569.12 620.83 422.88 428.35 339.90 2,381.07

Hydro 380.34 472.87 286.41 237.27 239.93 1,616.82

Solar 499.18 179.87 109.13 112.03 131.40 1,031.61

Biomass 49.36 52.36 47.86 49.36 46.36 245.31

Biogas 19.76 7.76 14.36 33.26 7.76 82.91

Total 1,517.76 1,333.69 880.64 860.27 765.36 5,357.72


Table 25 – Combined Forecast Employment Impacts from Potential Exports (FTEs/year)


Wind 55 7 426 423 563 1,474

Hydro 197 197 197 197 197 987

Solar 1,869 1,663 1,617 1,597 1,576 8,322

Biomass - - - - - -

Biogas - - - - - -

Total 2,122 1,867 2,241 2,217 2,337 10,783

Table 26 – Combined Forecast Earnings from Potential Exports ($ 2017 Millions)


Wind 3.91 0.50 29.95 29.39 39.60 103.33

Hydro 17.53 17.53 17.53 17.53 17.53 87.65

Solar 124.17 110.52 107.42 106.06 104.67 552.84

Biomass - - - - - -

Biogas - - - - - -

Total 145.60 128.54 154.90 152.98 161.80 743.82

Table 27 – Combined Forecast GDP Impacts from Potential Exports ($ 2017 Millions)


Wind 5.56 0.80 41.70 40.80 55.12 143.98

Hydro 21.22 21.22 21.22 21.22 21.22 106.09

Solar 176.23 156.84 152.46 150.54 148.57 784.63

Biomass - - - - - -

Biogas - - - - - -

Total 203.00 178.85 215.37 212.56 224.91 1,034.70


14.2 Solar

Table 28 - Total and Local Capital Expenditures from Solar


MW Installed MW 272 358 337 123 51 1,140

Total Capital Expenditures $ 2017 Millions 552 686 614 235 86 2,172

Local Capital Expenditures $ 2017 Millions 407 403 366 142 47 1,364




Table 29 - Solar Related Economic Impacts – Annual Jobs

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

New Build FTEs 6,338 4,878 4,002 1,322 547 17,087

O&M Legacy FTEs 1,103 1,103 1,103 1,103 1,103 5,515

O&M New Build FTEs 98 211 299 326 332 1,266

Total FTEs 7,539 6,192 5,404 2,751 1,982 23,868

Table 30 - Solar Related Economic Impacts - Annual Earnings

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

New Build $ 2017 Millions 326.70 78.64 25.06 26.71 39.92 497.03

O&M Legacy $ 2017 Millions 31.80 31.80 31.80 31.80 31.80 159.02

O&M New Build $ 2017 Millions 2.83 3.29 3.56 3.86 4.28 17.81

Total $ 2017 Millions 361.33 113.73 60.42 62.37 76.01 673.86

Table 31 - Solar Related Economic Impacts – Annual GDP Contributions

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total




Total $ 2017 Millions 499.18 179.87 109.13 112.03 131.40 1031.61

Table 32 - Solar Related Economic Impacts – Potential Export Activity

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

Jobs FTEs 1,869 1,663 1,617 1,597 1,576 8,322

Earnings $ 2017 Millions 124.17 110.52 107.42 106.06 104.67 552.84

GDP $ 2017 Millions 176.23 156.84 152.46 150.54 148.57 784.63


14.3 Wind

Table 33 – Total and Local Capital Expenditures from Wind


MW Installed (MW) MW 307 378 245 242 0 1,171

Total Capital Expenditure $ 2017 Millions 307 378 152 150 0 986

Local Capital Expenditure $ 2017 Million 690 839 333 324 0 2186




Table 34 - Wind Related Economic Impacts – Annual Jobs

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

New Build FTEs 2,607 2,861 907 880 - 7,255

O&M Legacy FTEs 1,516 1,516 1,516 1,516 1,516 7,580

O&M New Build FTEs 97 214 262 309 309 1,192

Total FTEs 4,220 4,591 2,685 2,705 1,825 16,026

Table 35 - Wind Related Economic Impacts – Annual Earnings

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

New Build $ 2017 Millions 192.49 208.94 66.63 64.53 - 532.60



Total $ 2017 Millions 304.91 329.39 190.37 191.51 126.98 1,143.15

Table 36 - Wind Related Economic Impacts – Annual GDP Contributions

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total


O&M Legacy $ 2017 Millions 284.55 284.55 284.55 284.55 284.55 1,422.73


Total $ 2017 Millions 569.12 620.83 422.88 428.35 339.90 2,381.07

Table 37 - Wind Related Economic Impacts – Potential Export Activity

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

Jobs FTEs 55 7 426 423 563 1,474


GDP $ 2017 Millions 5.56 0.80 41.70 40.80 55.12 143.98


14.4 Hydroelectricity

Table 38 – Total and Local Capital Expenditure from Hydroelectricity



Total Capital Expenditures $ 2017 Millions 227 342 81 3 7 660

Local Capital Expenditures $ 2017 Millions 156 246 54 2 5 463




Table 39 – Hydroelectric Related Economic Impacts – Annual Jobs

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

New Build FTEs 1,405 2,333 487 18 46 4,288

O&M New Build FTEs 20 51 61 62 62 256

O&M Legacy FTEs 1,830 1,830 1,830 1,830 1,830 9,150

Total FTEs 3,255 4,214 2,377 1,909 1,938 13,693

Table 40 – Hydroelectric Related Economic Impacts – Annual Earnings

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total


O&M New Build $ 2017 Millions 1.70 2.10 0.70 0.10 - 4.60


Total $ 2017 Millions 256.40 335.10 180.50 141.00 143.20 1,056.20

Table 41 – Hydroelectric Related Economic Impacts – Annual GDP Contributions

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total



O&M Legacy $ 2017 Millions 235.28 235.28 235.28 235.28 235.28 1,176.39

Total $ 2017 Millions 380.28 472.88 286.38 237.28 239.98 1,616.79

Table 42 - Hydro Related Economic Impacts – Potential Export Activity

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

Jobs FTEs 197 197 197 197 197 987


GDP $ 2017 Millions 21.20 21.20 21.20 21.20 21.20 106.00


14.5 Biogas

Table 43 – Total and Local Capital Expenditure from Biogas ($ 2017 Millions)





Total Cap Ex / MW $ 2017 Million/MW 12.3 - 12.3 12.3 - 12.3

Local Cap Ex / MW $ 2017 Million/MW 5.8 - 5.8 5.8 - 5.8

Local Content Percentage % 47% - 47% 47% - 47%

Table 44 – Biogas Related Economic Impacts – Annual Jobs

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

New Build FTEs 88 - 48 187 - 323

O&M New Build FTEs 32 32 50 118 118 349

O&M Legacy FTEs 63 63 63 63 63 314

Total FTEs 183 95 161 367 180 986

Table 45 – Biogas Related Economic Impacts – Annual Earnings

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

New Build $ 2017 Millions 7.20 - 4.00 15.30 - 26.50



Total $ 2017 Millions 14.40 7.20 12.50 28.90 13.60 76.60

Table 46 – Biogas Related Economic Impacts – Annual GDP Contributions

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

New Build $ 2017 Millions 8.80 - 4.80 18.70 - 32.30



Total $ 2017 Millions 19.76 10.96 17.56 38.26 19.56 106.11


14.6 Biomass

Table 47 – Total and Local Capital Expenditure from Biomass ($ 2017 Millions)


Installed Capacity MW 0.5 1 0.3 0.5 0 2.3



Total Cap Ex / MW $ 2017 Million/MW 12 12 12 12 - 12

Local Cap Ex / MW $ 2017 Million/MW 6 6 6 6 - 6


Table 48 – Biomass Related Economic Impacts – Annual Jobs

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

New Build FTEs 22 44 11 22 - 99

O&M New Build FTEs 8 24 28 36 36 132

O&M Legacy FTEs 352 352 352 352 352 1,761

Total FTEs 382 420 391 410 388 1,991

Table 49 – Biomass Related Economic Impacts – Annual Earnings

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total




Total $ 2017 Millions 30.60 33.00 29.40 30.60 28.20 151.80

Table 50 – Biomass Related Economic Impacts – Annual GDP Contributions

Year Units 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total




Total $ 2017 Millions 49.36 52.36 47.86 49.36 46.36 245.31


15 Appendix E – Representative Supply Chains in Ontario

15.1 Solar

Table 51 – Representative Supply Chain in Ontario – Solar PV

Company Role in Supply Chain Products Location

Silfab Manufacturer Modules Mississauga, ON

Heliene Manufacturer Modules Sault Ste Marie, ON

Canadian Solar Manufacturer Modules Guelph, ON

Sparq Solar Manufacturer Inverters Kingston, ON

KB Racking Manufacturer Racking Toronto, ON

Solar Flexrack Manufacturer Racking Arnprior, ON

Presstran Manufacturer Racking St. Thomas, ON

Boreal Solar Distributor Toronto, ON

Potentia Developer Toronto, ON

Grasshopper Developer Toronto, ON

Northland Power Developer Toronto, ON

RES Installer/EPC Toronto, ON

Bondfield Installer/EPC Toronto, ON

H.B. White Installer/EPC Toronto, ON

Northwind O&M Provider Oakville, ON

Stantec Professional Services - Engineering Toronto, ON

Hatch Professional Services - Engineering Mississauga, ON

Osler, Hoskin and Harcourt LLP Professional Services - Legal Toronto, ON


15.2 Wind Table 52 – Representative Supply Chain in Ontario – Wind

Company Role in Supply Chain Products/ Services Location

Rankin Construction

Inc. Construction

Access roads, crane pads,

substations, foundations St. Catherines, ON

PowerTel Utilities

Contractors Ltd. Construction High voltage electrical lines Whitefish, ON

Mortenson

Construction Construction/ EPC/ O&M Mississauga, ON

ENGIE Canada Developer Markham, ON

Prowind Canada Inc. Developer Hamilton, ON

Samsung Renewable

Energy Inc. Developer Mississauga, ON

Saturn Power Inc. Developer Baden, ON

EDF EN Canada Developer/ Construction/ EPC Toronto, ON

EDP Renewables

Canada Ltd. Developer/ Construction/ EPC Toronto, ON

Northland Power Inc. Developer/ Construction/ EPC Toronto, ON

WPD Canada Developer/ Construction/ EPC Mississauga, ON

NextEra Energy

Canada Development

& Acquisitions, Inc.

Developer/ Construction/ EPC/

Operate Etobicoke, ON

Longyuan Canada

Renewables Ltd. Developer/ Construction/ Operator Toronto, ON

Algonquin Power Developer/ Operator Oakville, ON

BluEarth Renewables

Inc. Developer/ Operator Guelph, ON

Boralex Inc. Developer/ Operator Milton, ON

TransCanada Energy

Ltd. Developer/ Operator Toronto, ON

Invenergy Wind

Canada Developer/ Operator Toronto, ON

Potentia Renewables Developer/ Operator Toronto, ON

Acciona Wind Energy

Canada Developer/ Operator Toronto, ON

Ridge National EPC/Construction Windsor, ON

Northwind Solutions Installer/O&M

Construction management

and installation services,

operations and maintenance,

project monitoring

Whitby, ON

Surespan Wind

Energy Services Installer/O&M Oakville, ON

CS Wind Canada Manufacturers Towers Windsor, ON

Siemens Wind Power Manufacturers/O&M Turbine Blades and O&M Tillsonburg



Ltd.

Schaeffler Canada Inc. O&M Bearings supplier Oakville, ON

GE Renewable Energy O&M Provider Mississauga, ON

Vestas Canada O&M Provider Toronto, ON

AECOM Professional Services - Engineering Professional technical and

management Markham, ON

CSS Wind Inc.

Professional Services - Engineering Blade repairs, auto-lubrication

components, gearbox services,

and fire protection

Carp, ON

AMEC Foster Wheeler

Americas Limited

Professional Services - Engineering Consultant, engineering, and

project management Oakville, ON

Aercoustics

Engineering Ltd.

Professional Services - Engineering Engineering Services (Noise,

vibration, and acoustics) Etobicoke, ON

Anixter Power

Solutions Canada Inc

Professional Services - Engineering Products, services and

solutions to drive down

supply chain costs

Colborne, ON

Avertex Utility

Solutions Inc.

Professional Services - Engineering Underground high voltage

cable trenching

Amaranth &

Smithville, ON

Bladefence Canada

Ltd.

Professional Services - Engineering Monitoring and service of

wind turbine lades Toronto, ON

Carlsun Energy

Solutions Inc.

Professional Services - Engineering Technical Services Port Elgin, ON

Operating Engineers

Training Institute Of

Ontario

Professional Services - Engineering

Engineer Training Morrisburg, ON

Select Elevator

Solutions Inc.

Professional Services - Engineering Elevator Solutions London, ON

Sherwood

Electromotion Inc.

Professional Services - Engineering Generator Experts Concord, ON

Dillon Consulting Ltd.


& Environmental

Planning, engineering,

environmental and

management

Toronto, ON

Hatch


& Environmental

Planning, engineering,

environmental and

management

Oakville, ON

Pinchin Ltd. Professional Services – Engineering

& Environmental Environmental and

engineering Timmins, ON

Stantec Professional Services – Engineering

& Environmental Environmental and

engineering Guelph, ON

Natural Resource

Solutions Inc.

Professional Services -

Environmental Environmental Waterloo, ON



Novus Environmental

Inc

Professional Services –

Environmental Environmental Solutions Guelph, ON

Sussex Strategy Group Professional Services -

Environmental Energy and environmental

Policy Toronto, ON

Aird & Berlis LLP Professional Services - Legal Toronto, ON

Blake, Cassels &

Graydon LLP

Professional Services - Legal Toronto, ON

Dale & Lessmann LLP Professional Services - Legal Toronto, ON

McCarthy Tetrault

LLP


Osler, Hoskin &

Harcourt LLP


Stikeman Elliott LLP Professional Services - Legal Toronto, ON

Torys LLP Professional Services - Legal Toronto, ON

Bulldog Turbine

Systems

Professional Services – Other Fire Protection Grand Bend, ON

CanACRE Professional Services - Other Land feasibility and land

acquisition Toronto, ON

PowerHub Professional Services - Other Cloud based asset

management solution Toronto, ON

Stonebridge Financial

Corporation

Professional Services – Other Financing Toronto, ON

Capstone

Infrastructure

Corporation

Owner/ Operator Toronto, ON

Pattern Renewable

Holdings Canada ULC Owner/ Operator Toronto, ON

Brookfield Renewable

Partners Owner/ Operator Toronto, ON

Challenger Motor

Freight Inc. Transportation Cambridge, ON


15.3 Hydroelectricity Table 53 – Representative Supply Chain in Ontario – Hydro


Golder Associates Professional Services –

Engineering

- Siting, permitting, environmental

impact assessments, construction and

operation compliance, due diligence,

and decommissioning

Toronto, ON

(+ many other

ON locations)

SNC-Lavalin Professional Services –

Engineering

- Design, build, permitting,

environmental

Toronto, ON

(+ many other

ON locations)

Dillon Consulting Professional Services –

Environmental

- Environmental assessments,

permitting, and due diligence

Toronto, ON

(+ many other

ON locations)

Pinchin Professional Services -

Environmental

- Environmental assessments,

permitting, and due diligence

Toronto, ON

(+ many other

ON locations)

Canadian Hydro

Components Ltd. Manufacturer

- Turbine manufacturer (small hydro

500kW to 30MW) Almonte, ON

Norcan Hydraulic

Turbine Inc. Manufacturer

- Turbine manufacturer (small hydro

500kW to 30MW) Carleton Place, ON

Andritz Hydro

Canada Inc.

Manufacturer/ EPC/

O&M

- Generator coil manufacture and

assembly

- Gates engineering and manufacturing

plant

Peterborough, ON

Paris, ON

Voith Hydro Inc. Manufacturer/ EPC/

O&M

- Generator coil manufacture and

assembly Mississauga, ON

Thordon Bearing Inc. Manufacturer - Bearing and seal systems Burlington, ON

The Chant Group of

Companies EPC - Project and construction management Aurora, ON

Maple Reinders

Construction EPC

- Integrated design/ build/ operate/

finance solution Mississauga, ON

TESC Contracting

Company EPC - Construction services Sudbury, ON

Spaans Babcock EPC - Waste water treatment and hydro

power designers and builders Barrie, ON

Capstone

Infrastructure Corp. Owner/ Operator

- Operates 16.8 MW in Ontario and

35.8 MW in Canada Toronto, ON

Ontario Power

Generation Owner/ Operator

- Operates 66 facilities across Ontario

ranging from 800kW to 1,400MW Toronto, ON

Power Tel Utilities

Contractors Ltd. Other Service Providers - High voltage specialists Whitefish, ON

Sealogic Other Service Providers - Sealing solutions Belleville, ON

Shark Marine

Technologies Other Service Providers

- Underwater equipment (imaging,

etc.) St. Catharines, ON


15.4 Biogas Table 54 – Representative Supply Chain in Ontario – Biogas


CEM

Engineering


Engineering

- Engineering design and consulting

services

St. Catharines,

ON

Golder

Associates


Environmental

- Permitting, environmental impact

assessments, odor assessments

Toronto, ON

(+ many other

ON locations)

CCi Bio Energy EPC/ O&M

- Project design, development,

construction, and operation and

maintenance

Newcastle, ON

PlanET Biogas EPC/ O&M



maintenance

St. Catharines,

ON

Yield Biogas

Solutions EPC/ O&M



maintenance

Toronto, ON

Stormfisher

Environmental Owner/ Operator

- Operator of a 2.85 MW biogas facility in

London London, ON


15.5 Biomass Table 55 – Representative Supply Chain in Ontario – Biomass


Andy Veenstra Farms

Ltd. Manufacturer Straw pellets Sherkston, ON

Atikokan Renewable

Fuels Manufacturer Wood pellets Atikokan, ON

Canadian Bio-Fuel Manufacturer Biomass pellets and briquettes Chatham, ON

Direct Pellet Industries Manufacturer Premium hardwood pellets Fenelon Falls, ON

Dongara Manufacturer Municipal solid waste fuel

pellets Woodbridge, ON

Ecostrat and General

Biofuel Manufacturer

Wood chips/ fuel/ pellets, and

miscanthus & alternative fuels Toronto, ON

Gildale Farms Manufacturer Biomass pellets St. Mary’s, ON

Lacwood Industries Manufacturer Wood pellets Hearst, ON

Nott Farms Manufacturer Switchgrass and oat hull pellets Central Huron, ON

Ontario Biomass

Producers Co-op Manufacturer Biomass pellets Markdale, ON

KMW Energy Developer/ Installer/

EPC Biomass projects London, ON

Naanovo Energy, Inc. Installer/ EPC Biomass projects Orleans, ON

Ontario Power

Generation Owner/ Operator

Atikokan GS and Thunder Bay

GS Toronto, ON


16 Appendix F – JEDI Industry Multipliers

16.1 Solar

Table 56 – JEDI Industry Sectors and Multipliers – Solar PV

Multipliers per Million Dollars Change in Final Demand

Jobs Per Earnings Per Output Per Value Added Per

JEDI Sector of the Economy

Direct Indirect Induced Direct Indirect Induced Direct Indirect Induced Direct Indirect Induced

Ag, Forestry, Fish & Hunting 7.40 3.24 1.23 0.20 0.17 0.06 1.00 0.61 0.22 0.41 0.28 0.13

Mining 3.94 1.95 1.94 0.35 0.12 0.10 1.00 0.35 0.35 0.61 0.19 0.21

Construction 6.35 2.71 1.89 0.39 0.17 0.10 1.00 0.48 0.34 0.47 0.25 0.20

Construction/Installations -

Non Residential

10.18 1.83 2.37 0.63 0.10 0.12 1.00 0.31 0.43 0.69 0.15 0.26

Construction/Installation

Residential

10.18 1.83 2.37 0.63 0.10 0.12 1.00 0.31 0.43 0.69 0.15 0.26

Manufacturing 2.42 2.09 1.08 0.16 0.13 0.06 1.00 0.46 0.20 0.26 0.21 0.12

Fabricated Metals 4.74 2.38 1.68 0.28 0.15 0.09 1.00 0.52 0.31 0.35 0.22 0.18

Machinery 3.36 1.79 1.35 0.26 0.12 0.07 1.00 0.36 0.25 0.31 0.18 0.15

Electrical Equip 4.41 1.67 1.62 0.33 0.11 0.08 1.00 0.34 0.30 0.44 0.17 0.18

Battery Manufacturing 3.46 1.40 1.16 0.22 0.09 0.06 1.00 0.28 0.21 0.31 0.14 0.12

Energy Wire Manufacturing 3.46 1.40 1.16 0.22 0.09 0.06 1.00 0.28 0.21 0.31 0.14 0.12

Wholesale Trade 5.02 2.67 1.92 0.34 0.16 0.10 1.00 0.45 0.35 0.58 0.25 0.21

Retail trade 11.52 2.65 2.28 0.44 0.16 0.12 1.00 0.47 0.41 0.61 0.27 0.25

TCPU 2.22 2.18 1.42 0.29 0.14 0.07 1.00 0.36 0.26 0.63 0.20 0.15

Insurance and Real Estate 1.88 3.83 1.55 0.17 0.25 0.08 1.00 0.58 0.28 0.49 0.35 0.17

Finance 4.19 1.60 1.77 0.37 0.10 0.09 1.00 0.27 0.32 0.76 0.15 0.19

Other Professional Services 6.95 2.02 2.00 0.60 0.12 0.10 1.00 0.33 0.36 0.73 0.19 0.22

Office Services 9.49 1.89 2.03 0.64 0.11 0.10 1.00 0.30 0.37 0.72 0.17 0.22

Architectural and

Engineering Services

7.44 2.33 2.40 0.48 0.14 0.12 1.00 0.39 0.44 0.72 0.22 0.26

Other services 6.72 2.53 2.28 0.51 0.15 0.12 1.00 0.40 0.41 0.65 0.23 0.25

Government 8.31 2.16 2.19 0.48 0.12 0.11 1.00 0.38 0.40 0.61 0.19 0.24

Semiconductor (solar

cell/module) manufacturing

5.83 1.22 1.63 0.33 0.08 0.08 1.00 0.25 0.30 0.44 0.13 0.18

16.2 Wind

Table 57 – JEDI Industry Sectors and Multipliers – Wind





Agriculture 7.40 3.24 1.23 0.202 0.175 0.064 1.00 0.607 0.224 0.412 0.285 0.285

Mining 3.94 1.95 1.94 0.350 0.123 0.100 1.00 0.348 0.352 0.609 0.190 0.190

Construction 6.35 2.71 1.89 0.391 0.167 0.098 1.00 0.479 0.343 0.472 0.253 0.253

Manufacturing 2.42 2.09 1.08 0.165 0.126 0.056 1.00 0.462 0.196 0.265 0.206 0.206


Machinery 3.36 1.79 1.35 0.259 0.118 0.070 1.00 0.360 0.245 0.312 0.177 0.177

Electrical Equipment 4.41 1.67 1.63 0.327 0.110 0.084 1.00 0.342 0.296 0.442 0.166 0.166

TCPU 2.22 2.18 1.43 0.286 0.136 0.074 1.00 0.357 0.259 0.627 0.202 0.202

Wholesale Trade 5.02 2.67 1.92 0.339 0.158 0.099 1.00 0.453 0.349 0.585 0.245 0.245

Retail Trade 11.52 2.65 2.28 0.444 0.158 0.118 1.00 0.472 0.414 0.606 0.268 0.268

FIRE 3.12 3.01 1.54 0.239 0.187 0.080 1.00 0.494 0.280 0.574 0.282 0.282

Misc. Services 3.08 2.41 1.38 0.226 0.143 0.071 1.00 0.461 0.251 0.521 0.248 0.248

Professional Services 6.95 2.02 2.00 0.597 0.117 0.103 1.00 0.328 0.363 0.727 0.186 0.186

Government 8.31 2.16 2.19 0.481 0.120 0.113 1.00 0.380 0.399 0.608 0.186 0.186

16.3 Hydro

Table 58 – JEDI Industry Sectors and Multipliers – Hydro





Agriculture 7.395 3.245 1.230 0.202 0.175 0.064 1.00 0.607 0.224 0.412 0.285 0.132

Mining 3.942 1.951 1.940 0.350 0.123 0.100 1.00 0.348 0.352 0.609 0.190 0.209

Construction 6.352 2.711 1.890 0.391 0.167 0.098 1.00 0.479 0.343 0.472 0.253 0.204

Manufacturing 2.420 2.085 1.080 0.165 0.126 0.056 1.00 0.462 0.196 0.265 0.206 0.116


Machinery 3.361 1.787 1.350 0.259 0.118 0.070 1.00 0.360 0.245 0.312 0.177 0.145


TCPU 2.215 2.179 1.420 0.286 0.136 0.074 1.00 0.357 0.259 0.627 0.202 0.154

Wholesale Trade 5.022 2.673 1.920 0.339 0.158 0.099 1.00 0.453 0.349 0.585 0.245 0.207

Retail Trade 11.517 2.654 2.280 0.444 0.158 0.118 1.00 0.472 0.414 0.606 0.268 0.246

FIRE 3.117 3.005 1.540 0.239 0.187 0.080 1.00 0.494 0.280 0.574 0.282 0.166

Misc. Services 3.076 2.405 1.380 0.226 0.143 0.071 1.00 0.461 0.251 0.521 0.248 0.149


Government 8.310 2.162 2.190 0.481 0.120 0.113 1.00 0.380 0.399 0.608 0.186 0.236

16.4 Biomass

Table 59 – JEDI Industry Sectors and Multipliers – Biomass





Agriculture 7.395 3.245 1.227 0.202 0.175 0.064 1.00 0.607 0.224 0.412 0.285 0.132

Mining 3.942 1.951 1.938 0.350 0.123 0.100 1.00 0.348 0.352 0.609 0.190 0.209

Construction 6.352 2.711 1.886 0.391 0.167 0.098 1.00 0.479 0.343 0.472 0.253 0.204

Manufacturing 2.420 2.085 1.077 0.165 0.126 0.056 1.00 0.462 0.196 0.265 0.206 0.116


Machinery 3.361 1.787 1.347 0.259 0.118 0.070 1.00 0.360 0.245 0.312 0.177 0.145


TCPU 2.215 2.179 1.425 0.286 0.136 0.074 1.00 0.357 0.259 0.627 0.202 0.154

Wholesale Trade 5.022 2.673 1.919 0.339 0.158 0.099 1.00 0.453 0.349 0.585 0.245 0.207

Retail Trade 11.517 2.654 2.277 0.444 0.158 0.118 1.00 0.472 0.414 0.606 0.268 0.246

FIRE 3.117 3.005 1.541 0.239 0.187 0.080 1.00 0.494 0.280 0.574 0.282 0.166

Misc. Services 3.076 2.405 1.381 0.226 0.143 0.071 1.00 0.461 0.251 0.521 0.248 0.149


Government 8.310 2.162 2.191 0.481 0.120 0.113 1.00 0.380 0.399 0.608 0.186 0.236

16.5 Biogas

Table 60 – JEDI Industry Sectors and Multipliers – Biogas





Agriculture 7.395 3.245 1.227 0.202 0.175 0.064 1.00 0.607 0.224 0.412 0.285 0.132

Mining 3.942 1.951 1.938 0.350 0.123 0.100 1.00 0.348 0.352 0.609 0.190 0.209

Construction 6.352 2.711 1.886 0.391 0.167 0.098 1.00 0.479 0.343 0.472 0.253 0.204

Manufacturing 2.420 2.085 1.077 0.165 0.126 0.056 1.00 0.462 0.196 0.265 0.206 0.116


Machinery 3.361 1.787 1.347 0.259 0.118 0.070 1.00 0.360 0.245 0.312 0.177 0.145


TCPU 2.215 2.179 1.425 0.286 0.136 0.074 1.00 0.357 0.259 0.627 0.202 0.154

Wholesale Trade 5.022 2.673 1.919 0.339 0.158 0.099 1.00 0.453 0.349 0.585 0.245 0.207

Retail Trade 11.517 2.654 2.277 0.444 0.158 0.118 1.00 0.472 0.414 0.606 0.268 0.246

FIRE 3.117 3.005 1.541 0.239 0.187 0.080 1.00 0.494 0.280 0.574 0.282 0.166

Misc. Services 3.076 2.405 1.381 0.226 0.143 0.071 1.00 0.461 0.251 0.521 0.248 0.149


Government 8.310 2.162 2.191 0.481 0.120 0.113 1.00 0.380 0.399 0.608 0.186 0.236

MARKET ANALYSIS OF ONTARIO S RENEWABLE ENERGY SECTOR FINAL_MOE Ontar… · The Ministry engaged...

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